The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Rankings Reax: Are TCU & USC in if they lose their conference championship games?

Episode Date: November 30, 2022

FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the CFP Rankings after Week 13 of the College Football season. Joel believes the committee correctly picked the top six teams in this version of the rankings, starting with Georgia at one, followed by Michigan, TCU, USC, Ohio State, and Alabama. Further, Joel explains why even if Georgia, Michigan, or TCU were to lose in their conference championship games, they should still make the CFP. Next, Joel shares his thoughts on USC being ranked ahead of Ohio State and what could happen if USC were to lose to Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game. Finally, Joel discusses the 15 teams who made the top 25 that were not ranked in the preseason and gives props to Oregon State for their impressive season which was capped off by a win over in-state rival Oregon. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Irma Meyer talked about this man coverage all day long and how Ohio State was going to have to sell out to stop the run and it's bit them. Another explosive play. This time it's Edwards. Anytime you get that one seal, Gus, if you don't have a support player there, the running back is gone. The most important block was the center, Oluatimmy, and Ryan Day is seeing the exact same theme play out for a second straight year. Welcome in to the show. It is the Joel Clatt show. I'm Joel Clatt. Thanks for joining us. Rankings, reveal, reaction. We've got them all right here. And I would just remind you that if you haven't gone and listened to Monday's edition of Joel Clat Show, then you're going to want to do that. All the reaction that you can possibly want from the game between Michigan and Ohio State, the fallout there for the Ohio State side. Ryan Day got some thoughts. on him. USC keeps winning Caleb Williams, all of that. A little Luke Fickle and Matt Rule,

all of that came in there. So again, go download it, listen to it if you haven't, and you will be all caught up to speed. But now we've got the new college football playoff rankings for this week, and we can move forward with them in this conference championship game week that we've got this week. So let's get into it because I've got some specific thoughts on on what we got from the committee Tuesday night. And first things first, I actually think that they, they got it. There's the first one of all of the releases that I looked at it and I was like, you know what? They finally kind of did the right thing and I didn't have much of a problem with what we got. Georgia is number one, Michigan's number two, TCU's number three, USC goes up to number four.

That's the one I was waiting for is like, where were they going to go based on last week and clearly not being valued by the committee? And now I felt like they were valued after that win over Notre Dame. They're 11 and 1. Caleb Williams looks like he's going to run away with the Heisman Trophy. So they go to four. Ohio State goes to five at 11 and 1, and then six is Alabama. I know that there are Tennessee fans out there that are upset with Bama at 6. And listen, I kind of get it, right?

Like as soon as you have a similar record, and by the way, the same record, you should probably get the nod and the benefit of the doubt because of the head-to-head win. And I'm here for that because I think that the games on the field should matter. The committee went with Bama. That would be kind of one of the only ones that I'm like, really? Like, I don't get it. And I think what the committee finally settled on is that Bama lost basically by a play each time while Tennessee lost by 25 to South Carolina,

even though South Carolina's when it's gotten better in particular with their win over Clemson. Okay. So that's that's that. The other thing that I guess you could argue, but yeah, you know, I get it, is Georgia won Michigan two. Michigan now has the best one in the country by a wide margin. with that win in the shoe over Ohio State, in particular in the way that they dominated going home in the fourth quarter. They put Georgia at number one. I guess I don't have a huge problem with it. I think that they're probably looking at this as the defending champion,

Georgia Bulldogs, which again, you know, that's fine if that's their prerogative. Why is that fine? Well, because I don't really think it matters. Do I think that the six, seven matters? Nope. I don't. Why is that? Well, let me get into it. Okay. So this is the, the first thing that we need to wrap our heads around with these rankings is the fact that I don't believe those top three undefeateds are going anywhere, even if they lose. So let's start with that. In this championship game weekend, I don't think these teams, in particular the top three, should be penalized for qualifying for these games and for winning every one of their games

up to this point. They're all 12 and 0. They're all playing for their conference title. And even if they were to lose, I think they belong in the college football playoff. The way that it's played out this year, and again, I think that this is specific to this year, but the way that this is played out this year, there's nobody else really there that has an argument or a path that can overtake any one of those three teams. I think you could probably get down to like, does Ohio, state overtake one of those three teams? Well, you could make the argument. But again, if it's just the three, then there's that fourth spot right there as well. So what does that mean? Well, in my estimation, I believe that the top three teams should still go to the playoff regardless of what happens

this weekend in those games. The reason is, is because all three of those teams have a floor of Bama. Bama can't get up there. They just can't. I just, I don't see a way in which wins an argument against any of those three. I think that's pretty clear with Georgia. Georgia has a better win. Obviously, it's against Tennessee. Tennessee beat Alabama. So that wipes that off the board. Georgia would clearly win an argument even if they lost to LSU. Michigan and Alabama. Well, Michigan would only have one loss and they have the best win in the country against Ohio State on the road. Well, that's better than any of the losses that Alabama had and this one would be a win. So again, like that one is off the board. Plus, by the way, Michigan also has another top 10 win in Penn State.

So Alabama's not winning an argument over Michigan, even if they were to lose to Purdue. So that brings up TCU. Because everyone's saying like, well, if TCU and USC lose, maybe Bama's got a path. Really? Really? Because I actually don't view it that way. First and foremost, let's at least evaluate with clearly. eyes that TCU already has 12 wins. Bama can't get more than 10. That's two whole wins more than what Bama has in the exact same amount of games up to this point. So like that in and of itself really should do it, but then you can even go to the resume and TCU still has what I would

consider to be a much better resume than Alabama. If you really look at it, TCU has a win over Kansas State. In this scenario, they would also have a loss against Kansas State, which means Kansas State would probably move up at least a spot or maybe a couple of spots in the college football playoff rankings, which means that at that point, Kansas State is inside the top 10, right now, number 10, but inside the top 10. And TCU would have a win over that top 10 opponent. Now, that would also be their loss, but again, a win over that top 10 opponent. Remember, Bama's best win is Texas sitting at 20 right now. Guess who also beat Texas? TCU. Guess who did it in a more dominant fashion than Bama did in the exact same building, TCU?

So you get where I'm going with this. TCU wins an argument over Alabama even if they lose. So that's where I just don't see a path for Alabama at all. All the talk about Alabama potentially having a path I just blatantly disagree with. Now, you might wonder, like, Joel, why did you say the floor is Bama? What happens with Ohio State? Does Ohio State have an argument over a TCU team? Like, let's say USC wins on Friday night and then TCU loses on Saturday. Are we going to have a debate between Ohio State and TCU? You see, in my mind, I actually think that TCU wins that argument as well, because remember, at that point, Kansas State is going to be right next to Penn State. So the two wins that the two teams have are basically equal.

And in this regard, you would just be penalizing TCU for losing a game that they qualified to play as an extra game. You see, you don't have that scenario with USC because they already lost in the regular season. So you can really compare that loss, like to Utah, the highest ranked team that they played. where it's different when you compare TCU and Ohio State because TCU, their only loss would be in a game that is an extra game outside of a game that was not required for Ohio State. So in that regard, I don't think Ohio State is even a threat to TCU if they were to lose. Clearly not to Michigan.

And I don't think to Georgia either. So I stand with my premise, my original premise, which, is, I believe the top three teams, as they were ranked by the committee, should be in regardless of outcome this weekend. That brings up the argument between four and five. USC and Ohio State. I believe that Ohio State's only opportunity to get into the playoff is if USC loses. Everybody else win, lose, you're in. Okay, Georgia, Michigan, TCU, go start preparing. And by the way, probably Michigan, TCU are already matched up against each other in the Fiesta Bowl. So that brings up the argument in the possibility that Utah beats USC, what do we do with Ohio State and USC?

Fourth spot. Well, if you actually play that out in your head and you start to look at the resume, I think that Ohio State would probably win that. argument. If you just look at it from best win, Ohio State has them. Number eight, Penn State, on the road. Okay. And remember, they kind of ran away with it late. The best win for USC is number 15 on the road. So that's no slouch, right? Oregon State, that win on the road. Like, that's a really good win. There's no doubt about it. But then you bring up the loss. Okay. So like, then let's evaluate the losses in this scenario. Well, Ohio States is to Michigan.

Remember now, Michigan is 12 and 0, ranked number two in the country, and they are 24 and 2 in their last 26 games, the only team with a better record than Michigan in the last 26 weeks of college football is Georgia. So that loss, while it's, yes, by double digits, doesn't quite look as bad as losing, to Utah in this scenario twice. Why is that? Well, because Utah is the highest ranked team that USC has played all year long. And in this scenario, they would have lost to them twice.

And Utah's not even rated higher than number eight Penn State and probably wouldn't get to that point, even if they were to beat USC, which means that Ohio State's win over Penn State is better than both the losses that USC would have taken in this scenario, both to Utah. And can we really include a team that doesn't win their conference championship and loses to that conference's champion twice in a season when that champion doesn't also go to the playoff? You see where I'm getting like, I know it's a convoluted kind of web that we weave here, but I'm just painting you a scenario that I believe three spots are already taken in the

playoff or should be. And then we're playing for one final spot. USC win, you're in. You beat Utah and you're going to be in the playoff. If you lose, unfortunately, because it's Utah and maybe not some other Pac-12 team, you're probably going to lose that argument to Ohio State, which means that Ohio State is going to be watching from Columbus on Friday night. And as that Pac-12 championship game in Vegas is playing out, the playoff hopes for the Buckeyes

rest on that field in Vegas as USC and Utah tangled. I believe USC would lose the argument to Ohio State in that scenario, which then begs the question. And this is where it started to get fun when I was just thinking about it in my own head. Who would Georgia want to play? So we know Ohio State's going to be rooting for Utah. Who's Georgia rooting for? Isn't that kind of a fun question? Georgia's a really good team, really good team. In fact, statistically, when you look at what they're scoring, what they're giving up, not all that different. In fact, eerily similar to last year's team that one on to win the national championship.

Now, we could all say, like, we don't think that their defense is quite as dominant as what that team's defense was. Remember, at this point in the season, their statistics, if you will, their point totals were way lower than what they ended up being because Bama got after him in that SEC championship game, put up a lot of yards on them also in the national championship game. But who does Georgia want to play? It's just such a fun thought experiment. So initially, if you're anything like me, you immediately go to the quarterbacks and

you're like, well, both of them are really good, right? You've got Stroud, you've got Caleb Williams. But do you really want to see Caleb Williams? You're like, I don't know if I would want to see Caleb Williams. I don't know if I would want to see Jordan Addison. You know, Lincoln Riley's offense, this is always an offense that's going to put pressure on a defense. They can run it really well with a good identity. They can obviously throw it. Williams is playing out of his mind. But I actually think it's Ohio State who they don't want to see.

Now, they might say, like, we don't care. And fair enough, absolutely. And you know what? If you're a competitor, you probably want to take that mindset anyways. But if you're a Georgia fan, and I know a lot of you out there, who do you want to see? Is it USC or is it Ohio State? See, I would assume, and as you kind of go through it, you would probably rather see USC. The reason is, is while their quarterback is playing out of his mind, yes, the roster for USC in its totality, is not anywhere close to what the roster for Ohio State is. And Ohio State is probably the only team in the country up to this point that any of us have said, like, yeah, you know, they match up decently with Georgia, maybe not a great matchup, but decently,

as opposed to anybody else. Because, by the way, Georgia matches up with Michigan, that's like looking in a mirror. Michigan's not going to be able to out-tuff Georgia. We'll get to that matchup potentially down the road. But Ohio State, they can get out there and do what Alabama did to Georgia last year, which is threaten them vertically. Okay, so when you start actually looking at the roster

and you'd start looking at the makeup of this team, yes, like Georgia doesn't want to see USC lose. That's going to be a much tougher game for them in the semifinal if they have to face the Buckeyes. And by the way, it's not unprecedented that a really good team loses late in the season and can still go on and win the national title. You know how I know that?

Because you did it just last year. Just last year. Didn't show up for the SEC championship game, got kind of run against Bama, and then ultimately won the national championship. So who's to say that Ohio State can't fix some of the things that went wrong for them in the last seven minutes and 20 seconds against Michigan and roll out there and play really well in the playoff? And the good weather in a dome. Like, so that's a tougher matchup for Georgia.

If I'm a Georgia fan, I've got my USC sweatshirt on on Friday night because I would rather see USC, at least in my estimation, than Ohio State in a national semifinal. All right, a couple more thoughts on this week's rankings. Let me just start with all. Not start. Let me move to. I do think that the committee kind of got an easy road. As I'm walking through this, this is all pretty reasonable. You don't have to go on a limb to say that a 12 and 1 Michigan or Georgia or TCU should be in over a 10 and 2 Alabama team.

Right? we've never had a two-loss team enter the playoff. I don't think that that's going to happen anytime soon. And so now, to me, like, they kind of got let off the hook in some regard, which means that for another year, they're going to think that they did a really good job, which always seems to happen. A couple of other thoughts based on the top 25 that the CFP gave us.

As we look at it now, and it's up on your screen, if you're watching the show, I've got the top 25 up. I want to mention a couple of other things. Hey, PAC 12, great year. Great year. SC4, Utah 11, Washington 12, Oregon State 15, Oregon 16, Oregon 16, UCLA 17. You guys have six teams in the top 17. Like, that's a great year for the PAC 12.

It's a year in which that they haven't had, well, they haven't had a year like this in a long time with this type of depth. Now, you could make an argument that that depth has hurt them because now they're the only team left in the top four that could potentially play themselves out, which, you know, should SC be penalized for playing an extra game? Well, maybe, because remember, that extra game is against Utah and they've already lost to Utah like I went over before.

Having said that, though, this is just another case. study for the PAC 12, you should have been for the last six, seven years pounding the table for for college football playoff expansion, pounding the table. Because in the event that it would have been expanded this year, I mean, Pac-12 probably gets three teams in there. And this is a conference that played really well, and I just wanted to just, you know, throw that out there. And yet, with as good of a year as they had, six teams in the top 17, there's a good chance if Utah is able to beat USC again, and they do it on Friday night, the PAC 12 will get left out of the playoff again. They should have been screaming from the mountaintops for expansion

for years, and they haven't. In fact, at times, they've been a hindrance because of the relationship with the Rose Bowl and so on and so forth. So hopefully that gets ironed out and we get some expansion soon. Next thought that I want to have, and it also has to do with the entirety of the top 25. Started going through the top 25 tonight. As most of these teams, remember, have kind of finished their regular season and now are just playing postseason games.

And I'm starting to look at it and I'm like, man, there's a lot of teams on this list tonight, Tuesday night, if you will, that were not ranked in the preseason. And I start counting them. I'm like, okay, TCU, Tennessee, Penn State, Kansas State, Washington, Florida State, geez, LSU, Oregon State.

man, UCLA, two lanes, South Carolina, man, there's a lot of teams. Texas, UCF, North Carolina, Mississippi State. 15 teams are in the top 25 currently that were not ranked in the preseason. I know we're never going to do away with preseason rankings, but can we get better at them? I don't want to put up my preseason poll. it actually. I've got my top 25. I start my notebook every single year, by the way, with my top 25. You see, that's the first page. Oh, nope, don't want to talk about this one. There it is. I had Texas A&M at number eight. I'm out. So 15 teams, and I kind of listed them off under my breath there. TCU, they're the highest ranked team that was not ranked in the preseason. And in fact,

the number three TCU Hornfrogs did not receive a single vote in the preseason and here they are, I think, win, lose, whatever happens, they're still going to the playoff or should. Tennessee at number seven, they were unranked. Penn State at number eight, they were unranked.

Kansas State at number 10, they were unranked. Washington, 12. Florida State, 13. LSU 14. Oregon State, 15. UCLA 17. Tulane 18. South Carolina, 19. Texas, 20. UCF 22, North Carolina, 23, and Mississippi State 24.

And of those 15, did you know that five of them? Five teams are currently ranked in the top 25 that did not receive a single vote in the preseason whatsoever. And in fact, four of those are sitting in the top 15. TCU, Washington, Florida State, and Oregon State. Good on you. Good on you. Last thought for tonight. And it's on one of those teams.

and it's the last one that I just mentioned. Oregon State. We can talk a lot about Kansas State and Chris Kleinman and what he's been able to do at a difficult place to win. But remember, we've seen people win there before. Bill Snyder has done a heck of a job there, and Kleinman is building that in the same type of image and hardworking and run the football and play sound and this and that.

Oregon State, the year before Jonathan Smith, their head coach, arrived, was 1 and 11. his first year they were two in ten and here they are beat their in-state rival and they're ranked 15th in the country after the regular season. Oregon state fans have got to be ecstatic with where they're at right now. Just think about like, you're sitting there at 1 and 11 and you're like, what are we possibly going to do? Trust me, I'm in the same boat right now as a Buffs fan.

We're 111 as well, and I'm thinking to myself, what are we possibly going to do? And you know what? You make the right higher, and you can turn it around. Oregon State has done one hell of a job, and Jonathan Smith is one of the best coaches in America. Period. He does more with less than maybe anybody. They have developed real talent, in particular at the line of scrimmage, and they beat up the Oregon Ducks and didn't have to throw a pass. for the better part of the last quarter and a half in order to do it. So Oregon State, I just wanted to give you a shout out on this podcast.

I know I don't get a chance to talk about everybody in the country, but when it comes to something like that, right, 1 and 11 to now 15th in the country, ranked ahead of Oregon, I just think that that's something to celebrate if you're a Beavers fan and I'm here to celebrate it with you because I love college football. That's going to do it for today's episode. episode. Come back tomorrow. I'm going to break down and preview these conference championship games, including that Big Ten game. I'm going to have Purdue and Michigan in Indianapolis.

I'm going to have everything you need to watch for on Friday night in that Utah, USC game, Kansas State, TCU, LSU, Georgia, and Clemson, North Carolina. So that'll be tomorrow on Thursday. If you guys want to follow the show on social media, please do so. You can just follow us on any of the social media's at Joel Clatt show. Now, if you want to follow me, I'm trying to do my best to interact a little bit more, but, you know, it's hit or miss, but follow me on Twitter at Joel Clat, on Instagram at Joel underscore Clat, right there. As it relates to this show, please subscribe, download the show, and it'll be ready for you each and every time that we drop a new episode. And if you would, would you rate and review it for us, because that helps us as well.

I can't tell you how much I appreciate every one of you for listening to this show and for coming up to me on Saturdays in the fall and telling me that you enjoy it. So I'm thankful for you out there as well. That'll do it again. Coming back tomorrow for the championship game previews. This has been the Joel Klaas show. I'm Joel Klat. Have a great night.