The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Rankings Reax: Does USC have a path to the CFP & 12-team CFP hypotheticals

Episode Date: November 16, 2022

FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the CFP Rankings after Week 11 of the College Football Season. The top five remains the same, with Georgia coming in at number one, followed by Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, and Tennessee. Joel discusses the path for #7 USC to be the lone Pac-12 representative in the CFP. Then, Joel explains why he is concerned that Clemson will make the playoff during a down year. Finally, Joel explains why having a 12-team playoff would make these final two weeks of the regular season much more exciting, and illustrates how 33 teams would still be in the race if that were the case. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Stroud sprits out, throws on the move and another touchdown. This time it's Cameron Babb. Oh, that is a great story. Cameron Babb, fifth season with the program, highly recruited player but could not get on the field. Knee injury after knee injury. And now finally gets on the field. And that was his first career touchdown.

Welcome into the program, everybody. This is Joel Clatt. I am here for the Joel Clat show because we've got more playoff rankings and we've got to react to them. So thank you for joining us first and foremost. If you haven't listened to Monday's show, go back and listen to Monday's show. We had some really cool stuff. We talked about Ohio State and Michigan, some questions that they've answered and also some that have popped up. I talked about TCU a little bit, some Pac-12.

fallout from that disastrous weekend that they had last week. So make sure to go back and check that out because there was a lot of cool stuff. But tonight is all about these playoff rankings. So we've got to get into them. And really, I got to be honest, normally I'm pretty hard on the committee, right? You guys know this about me. I'm very hard on the committee. And I just didn't see much that I disagreed with tonight. So let's go out to it. Let's check it out. Let's see what the committee gave to us tonight. And what is this? The third, fourth edition of the college football playoff rankings?

Doesn't really matter because they're not the final ones, but whatever. So here's what the top six looked like. And I think pretty much everybody in America knew exactly what this was going to come out to. And that's what we got. Number one, Georgia. Yep. Number two, Ohio State. Number three, Michigan.

Number four, TCU. Five, Tennessee. at 9 and 1 and number 6 LSU at 8 and 2. I don't really have any problems with this. Based on how the season has played out, those four teams at the top have earned their ranking. And the best part about it is that, you know, let's say Michigan and Ohio State take care of business this weekend

against Illinois and Maryland, respectively, then we'll see that play out in the top four next week in the shoe. But there are some other thoughts that I had, and they're with teams that kind of are lurking. They're sitting there and they're lurking. And I don't know how realistic their path to the playoff is, but it's certainly there. So let's take a look at the rest of the top 25. And here's what you see. A couple of things jump out, excuse me, number one being NC State right in there at 24,

and Oregon State in there at 23. And those two rankings are going to help drastically the two teams that I'm going to talk about right now. How about number seven? Right outside of that top six. USC. USC, and we've been saying it for a long time, at least I have, I think USC has been, is, and will be the Pac-12's best chance to get into the playoff. Now, that's pretty obvious now after last weekend. I thought it was true even before last weekend when Oregon went down and when UCLA went down.

But even more so now. They're the only hope that the Pact 12 has. So how realistic is this path? How realistic is it for the USC Trojans to go to the college football playoff in this first year for Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams, everybody over there in Trojan land. It's actually not crazy. Let's start looking at it, okay? Because the first thing you have to realize about the USC resume so far

is that they don't have that real marquee win. Now, their loss isn't bad. Like when you lose by one on basically a two-point conversion to a really good Utah team in a place that not many people win games, like the committee can get over that. And they have to a large extent, putting them at 7. So that 9-1 record is impressive. One of the problems is that like, do they have a best win?

Well, now they do because Oregon State, like I just mentioned, jumped into the top 25. So now all of a sudden you're starting to build. There are building blocks there for USC. And then the best part about what USC has ahead of them is that they actually have more building blocks in front of them. Whereas most of the teams that are sitting up there higher than them in the rankings, those six teams, they're either going to play each other out or don't have anything left to build with. So I'm thinking of a team like, for example, Tennessee. Tennessee can't go to their conference championship game. So while a lot of us think,

and I really do that Tennessee's chances of going to the playoff are really high, it's not like they're going to be able to throw some huge resume builders on the resume from now until the final rankings. I think the same could be said for the team that loses the SEC championship game. They don't have much left if they lose that game. The loser of the Big Ten East, they're between Ohio State and Michigan. If you lose that game, you're not building your resume this week with Maryland and Illinois. and so you're starting to see kind of like that come to fruition. TCU.

Now they do have things left to build on their resume, but if they were to lose one of those games, whether it be regular season or in the conference championship game, now all of a sudden you're starting to look and you're like, okay, hold on. What is the path for USC? What has to happen? What dominoes have to fall for the Trojans to make it to the CFP this year?

and Lincoln Riley's first year. Well, first, obviously, you've got to take care of business. They've got to win the three games in front of them. Now, we don't know who the opponent is in the Pac-12 championship game, but they would have to win this week against UCLA, now technically on the road, but there's going to be a lot of Trojan fans there in the Rose Bowl, against Notre Dame, who, by the way, resurgent,

and I guess you should say, or I should say, surging at the end of the season. That's a good run game. and then whoever they face in the conference championship game. So they've got things ahead of them that is only going to propel them in the rankings. So they got to take care of business. Then you look around and it's like, okay, what would the debate be for USC to get in? Got to make some assumptions. So let's make the first assumption that like TCU loses a game.

So I think that would be a pretty important piece of this. TCU loses a game because we've got to assume, and I'm assuming Georgia is going to win. So let's just assume that. That's a constant. Georgia is going to win the SEC. And they're in. Okay, boom. I got to be honest.

I think TCU or excuse me, Tennessee is in, but for the sake of argument, let's keep them out. The winner of the Big Ten East likely in, right? So that's two spots. So then all of a sudden you start looking, okay, there's two more spots left. If USC wants one of those two spots, they're going to have to win a committee debate against a TCU team that would have a loss. I think for USC, they would really hope that that happened actually in the conference championship game and not like, let's say, this week against Baylor. Because in that scenario, then TCU would be a one-loss team without a championship. The Big Ten East loser of Ohio State, Michigan would be a one-loss team, non-champion.

Tennessee is a one-loss team, non-champion. And then let's assume that Clemson wins the ACC as a one-loss team. So then you're following me here? So now the scenario is Georgia and the Big Ten East winner next week are in, boom, two more spots left, and they go to two of these following. 5. TCU with one loss non-champ, Big 10 East one-loss non-champ, Tennessee one-loss non-champ, Clemson one-loss champ, U.S.C. one loss champ. You got to win one of those arguments. I got to be honest. I'm going to put a star at one of these and I'm like, that team's in in this scenario,

for sure. Guess which team that is? Tennessee. Tennessee would be in. And I think what it would come down to is an argument between USC and the Big Ten East champ. Now, Clemson fans might be thinking to themselves like, what are you talking about? We're the only other champ. Yeah, but here's the problem. In this scenario that I just laid out, USC has beaten Notre Dame. That would carry the day over Clemson. Okay, so Clemson in this might, they would be thrown out probably first, and then it would be USC against the Big Ten East champ and TCU. And I think if TCU didn't have a championship, the Big Ten East champ would trump them. And now you come down to USC against either Michigan or Ohio State. Let's just say for the sake of argument, it's Michigan because they're playing

on the road. It's tough to win road games in top 10, top five matchups. So then it comes down to USC, Michigan for one spot. Who gets it? Who gets it? That non-conference schedule is not going to be helping Michigan at that point. The fact that they don't have a championship in this scenario would not be helping Michigan. So that's the path. And I think it's plausible, by the way. You throw out and beat as USC the other champ in Clemson because you have the similar opponent in Notre Dame. And then you just got to hope that you win an argument against the Big Ten East loser for next week, Ohio State, or Michigan. And I think in that case, you would hope if it's USC, that it's Michigan that loses that game. Okay, so I hope you followed that because that's a big, long scenario. Now,

now, there was one team I mentioned in that scenario that I'm a little worried about. Clemson. I got nothing against Clemson. Clemson is one of the best programs that I've seen ever. What they've done in this era under Davos-Sweeney has been phenomenal. I've loved watching them play. They have a really unique culture, and it's a culture in which guys will stay, not leave early to the NFL. You rarely, although it's not, you know, it doesn't never happen, but you rarely see players transfer away from Clemson. This last year was the first time we saw assistant coaches leave, obviously Venables to owe you. The success they had was unprecedented. Now, it also coincided with another run of unprecedented success in Alabama.

So you might be asking the question right now. Joel, why are you heaping praise on Clemson? Well, it's because I'm about to throw something out there that they might not like. and that is, please God, no Clemson in the playoff this year. And again, that's not personal. That's not personal at all. I just think that when you look at these scenarios and you start thinking to yourself, like, is it plausible that USC wins all three of their games?

Maybe, you know, maybe it's going to be very tough against a physical run game in UCLA, a physical run game in Notre Dame, a physical team maybe in Utah or Oregon. again, you think of those matchups, and that's going to be very difficult for them, in particular without having their best running back and Travis die. We're going to see how that plays out this week against UCLA, but that's going to be really tough. Okay, so, like, that's tough for USC to get through there with one loss. Is it plausible that TCU loses a game?

Yeah. I mean, Kansas State's playing really well. Look at what they just did to Baylor last week. 31.3 at Baylor? I mean, I know Texas was able to beat them, but they absolutely thumped Oklahoma State. They thumped Baylor. I don't think it's a shoe in that all of a sudden TCU is just going to run the table. Now, I think TCU is really good.

I think their offense is really good. They were down double digits to Kansas State at home. And Kansas State was really struggling with the health of their quarterback. They've figured that out. Will Howard has played really well as the backup. So, I mean, is it plausible that TCU could lose a game? Yeah. Yeah, Big Ten East, definitely going to have one loss out of Ohio State or Michigan, and then Tennessee.

So, like, if USC loses another game, then you come down to, like, Clemson against the Big East loser, or excuse me, the Big Ten East loser and TCU. And, like, there's a real clear path for Clemson as well as a champ of the ACC. and listen, I don't know. I don't know. At that point, I got to be honest, I think that we should probably think about the fact that, like, it's pretty clear after the way that Notre Dame handled Clemson, North Carolina, Syracuse, potentially Boston College, you know, as they play BC. they're like, listen, Ohio States win over Notre Dame, right? Like that's going to carry the day for the Big Ten, right, at some point. So are we looking at maybe in that scenario, like, should we be arguing that two Big Ten,

two SEC teams would probably make the best playoff? Probably, probably, because Clemson's not very good. This feels a lot like the 2014 FSU team with James Winston. that was just not a great team. They got into the playoff kind of because, and then they got thumped by Oregon. They got thumped by Oregon. Now, one quick nugget before we move on,

and I want to get to this next thing, because I think it's really cool, and I think it's really important for the future of the sport. In the scenario that I painted here, remember the only two teams that were champions that are in this debate are. Clemson as a one-loss champ, USC as a one-loss champ,

in that scenario that I was kind of throwing out there. So far in history, only one Power 5 conference champion that only had one loss was not included in the playoff. I think I said that right. I think. That was Ohio State in 2018. So some precedent there. And we would see how this committee would actually handle those champions in that

scenario. Okay. That was a lot of like speculation and oh, what if. Well, let's dive deeper down that what if path. I want you guys to close your eyes. If you're driving, please don't close your eyes. Please keep your eyes on the road. Just kind of days off. You know how you're going to daze off. What is this 12 team playoff going to look like? And what is it going to mean for the regular season right about now? Well, let's take a look. In the proposed 12-team playoff, I've come up with a list of 33 teams that are either alive for their conference championship or in a position to compete for an at-large bid. Because remember, in the proposed 12-team model, we're going to take the six best champs and the six next-best teams. teams. So the first thing is that you've got this clearly defined path to the postseason for any

team that's alive and could potentially get to a conference championship game and potentially win the conference championship game. So who are those teams still right now in the country? Let's go over them. If you're watching this show, the graphic is up, but if you're listening, I'm going to walk through every one of these teams. In the SEC, there are two teams left. still alive for the conference championship, Georgia and LSU. In the Big Ten, you've got two divisions, and in each division, multiple teams are still alive to win the division and then obviously win the conference championship.

Those teams are Michigan, Ohio State, and the east, and in the West, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Purdue, and Wisconsin. all five of those teams. And by the way, none of them control their own destiny. In the Big 12, there is one team definitely going to the championship game. That's TCU. There are another six teams that are alive to compete against TCU in the Big 12 championship game. Kansas State, Baylor, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Texas Tech. Still right now. They're alive. You know that this is what would be so great. Like think about Kansas.

They were this unbelievable story early and then they've just gone by the wayside. Why? Because we have a subjective four-team invitational and not a postseason that is expanded to a point where we can have a clearly defined path for the champions of conferences. Texas loses that game. Heartbreaker. Their fans want to just jump in a river, right? And like, what are we doing?

We got to change. Is Sark the right guy? they would still be alive playing games that mattered as it related to the college football playoff. Out West in the PAC 12, all of these teams still alive to win the PAC 12. Oregon, USC, Utah, UCLA, and Washington. In the ACC, you've got Clemson and North Carolina, already locked up their births in the conference championship game, so they would still be alive. And then in the group of five, I've come up with a list of four teams that I think, based on where they're ranked right now and the way the committee views them, that they would easily be one of the six best champions if they were to win their conference and maybe two of the six best champions. UCF, Tulane, Cincinnati, and Coastal Carolina.

So those are just the teams that are mathematically at this point alive to win their conference championship. That's how important a clearly defined path to the postseason is in the proposed 12-team playoff that we've got coming up hopefully in 2024. Now, there's some other teams out there that would just be competing for at-large spots. And by the way, this list is awesome. Here's the teams that would be competing for an at-large spot. Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, Penn State, Florida State, Notre Dame. Like, yes, yes. Yes, sign me up.

Everybody, sign me up for exactly what I've got on the screen. There's 33 teams that would be left playing meaningful football this weekend if we had a 12-team playoff this year. So this weekend when Baylor and TCU play, it's not just important for one team, it's important for both teams. This weekend, when you've got Utah heading up to Oregon, and all of a sudden that game from last week, lost to Washington, you know, it's like, well, this week lost all its luster. Now, no one's focusing on the fact that Utah is going up to Oregon. Well, in this model, it still means everything because there's a postseason birth on the line. Washington, what did the win do for you last week? Well, last week in the current format,

it was just like a, hey, you know, we ruined Oregon season. Yeah, good for us. Now, right in the thick of it. It could be an out-large, it could be a conference. champion, these games in the Big Ten West feel like, oh my gosh, who's going to actually, you know, come out of the Big Ten West. In a 12-team playoff, it's so different. Alabama. Granted, you're not trying to play a meaningful game anyways because Austin P is coming to town.

But at least you're playing meaningful games. And then the best one of all, at least in my estimation, Penn State. Penn State is a two-lossed team that is totally out of their division race. They've lost to two of the top three teams in the entire country in Michigan and Ohio State. And they're not playing for anything right now. They would if there was a 12-team playoff. The bottom line is that this is just a snapshot. This is just a picture of how great it's actually going to be when we have these games,

like on a November 19th and into 3rd, Thanksgiving, and we've got 30, 33, 35 teams that are still alive for their conference championships, still alive for an at-large bid. How big would Notre Dame's game against USC be for both teams in a 12-team playoff next week? Like, listen, this has to happen, and it has to happen like tomorrow. Because currently what we have is really eight teams total that can possibly go to the playoff, and it's minimizing the way that we watch college football, the way that we enjoy

college football. And I think the overall size and value of the sport is diminished because of the four-team invitational, right? Like, this needs to change, and it needs to change immediately. And this is evidence of that. Those 33 teams would be playing massive games this weekend. They would have playoff implications and not just a smattering of a few for the top seven or eight team. in the country. All right, that's going to do it for this playoff reaction episode of Joel Clat Show. Follow us on social media. You can get out there on any of the social medias, and you can follow us at Joel Clat show. You can follow me personally on Twitter at Joel Clat or on Instagram at Joel underscore Clat. We'll be back tomorrow on Thursday. I've got previews

ready. And by the way, I've already done them. So I'm like super pumped. I'm going to preview TCU Baylor, Ohio State Maryland, USC, UCLA. LA, Illinois, Michigan. I get to run down all the scenarios in the Big Ten West and tell you exactly what needs to happen. And then we'll all have some cupcakes together because one, I love cupcakes. And apparently cupcakes are in vogue here on November 19th. All of that's coming up on Thursday. So you're going to want to make sure to tune into the show.

Remember to subscribe, download the show, rate and review us, and share it with a friend. Thank you so much for joining us tonight. We'll see you on Thursday.