The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - CFP Rankings Reax: Why the College Football Playoff system isn't working

Episode Date: November 23, 2022

FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to The CFP Rankings after Week 12 of the College Football season. The top four remains the same with Georgia coming in at number one, followed by Ohio State, Michigan, and TCU. But the CFP Committee surprised Joel by putting two-loss LSU ahead of one-loss USC at 5 and 6 respectively. Joel explains why moves like this lead to distrust in the system, and why it is yet another example that the 4-team College Football Playoff isn't good for the sport. Joel goes on to explain why Alabama is overvalued by the Committee this season, and how that affects other teams in the rankings. Finally, Joel closes by pointing out that if the CFP had a 12-team playoff, 25 teams would still be fighting for a spot and the sport would be in a better place because of it. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I feel like it's like that Spider-Man meme where they're all just pointing at each other. It's like, you, you, you, where are we going? You have three kids. Yes, sir. What's the Spider-Man meme? I haven't seen. Just a bunch of Spider-Man's pointing at each other. Oh, okay.

When they ask me, like, you know, it's like working with Gus. I say, well, hey, it's hard to teach an old drawing dog new tricks. Yeah. What's up, everybody? Welcome into the Joel Clatch Show. This is going to be a great show tonight because we've got college football playoff rankings that we've got to get to. And, yeah, I mean, you know, you know that I always have a lot to say about the playoff rankings. So here we go.

First of all, welcome into the show. I'm Joel Clatt. Thank you for listening. Go back and check out Mondays. If you haven't checked out Monday's show, download it. Rate review us, do all those different things because that would really be. help us out and we appreciate it. You, by the way, made us the number one podcast in college football. So thank you so much for that. We are indebted to you. And that's why we try to continue to work hard

and bring you guys like, you know, just good, good opinions and think about this stuff in unique ways. I'm going to try to do that tonight. Okay. So let's get into the college football playoff rankings, which came out. And at first glance, I was like, okay. And then I just started to get more and more warm. So those of you watching, we're going to put up the top six here. And those of you that are listening, you know that Georgia was number one, Ohio State number two, Michigan number three, and TCU number four. Pretty standard. Then the first two out. And this is where everyone was kind of waiting.

What was it going to be? Was it going to be USC at 5 or was it going to be LSU at 5? And they put LSU at 5. 9 and 2 on the year. USC, 10 and 1 on the year. They go to number 6. Just below that, by the way, you would have Alabama at 7 and 9 and 2. Clemson comes in at the 8th spot.

They're 10 and 1. Okay. Let's stop for a moment. And actually those that are watching, you see the whole top 25. Oregon 9, Tennessee 10, Penn State 11, Kansas State 12, Washington 13, Utah 14. Okay. The more I started looking at these rankings and the more that I thought about them, talked about them, the more I started to be abundantly confident in my original opinion about the playoff committee

and quite frankly the four-team playoff as a whole, but more specifically, the playoff ranking committee. This is a failed experiment. It just is. And I'm going to try not to just like rant and rave for one team over another, which is what I normally do based on a resume. I just want to walk through kind of the philosophy of what's going on and why it's a failed experiment. I know these individuals mean well, but they're just not doing a very good job. So let's get into it. I don't believe it's very good for college football when the process that crowns our ultimate champion, the ultimate goal, right? That process starts to get eroded from within because nobody trusts what's going on. And that's kind of what happens here. Now, some would say that, hey, it's just for entertainment. It's just because we've got to put these on television every week.

And so, hey, it doesn't really matter. But I've argued for a long time, it does matter. It matters where you're ranked. It matters in particular in a subjective sport, in a sport in which perception is a really strong currency for a coach when he's out on the recruiting trail, it matters how people think about your team and or the entire process of what's going on. And when you show that there is not a rhyme or reason, then people start to distrust the process. Okay. And candidly, there are a lot of people.

you might be one of them listening to this or watching this that distrust the process for the college football playoff. And candidly, I can't tell you that you're wrong. When you see what's going on, what you see first and foremost is nothing's really changed for the last couple of weeks. And you might be thinking to yourself like, well, that's fine, you know,

like we don't want it jumping all around. Okay. Maybe, but we've also seen games, and college football does not happen on a nice, linear path, right? There are adjustments made. Teams play well, they play worse. There are injuries that happen. Opponents come and go. Quality opponents, not so quality opponents. And because of that, your resume and the evaluation of each program needs to change. change on a weekly basis. That's the way I try to do it. And I think this committee should start to behave that way.

Because right now, it honestly just looks like U-12, waste a bunch of money to fly to Dallas, drink a bunch of free coffee, probably have a free dinner, eat a bunch of free scones, and then just put out exactly what you did before, regardless of what happened on the field. Well, that's not good for the sport now, is it? See, I don't think it is. It's pretty clear that this committee values their own opinion a great deal.

And quite frankly, over the last couple of weeks, we've seen things that have happened, games that have played out, teams that have played specific types of opponents, this should adjust what you think. And if it doesn't, then that's a problem. And I'll get to that problem in a little bit. Okay, so where are these instances happening? Well, I think one of them happens right there at the 5-6 mark.

LSU is a really good team. And I don't want this to be a me screaming about LSU or screaming about USC. I will just tell you, though, that it's clear that the committee really values what they viewed these teams to be two weeks ago. Because regardless of what's happened over the last two weeks, they just kind of slide them up. So is it path of least resistance or laziness or hubris? It's one of the three. Because what's played out on the field should have adjusted where you put those two teams. Okay. And I think that that's pretty obvious for everybody involved.

LSU had a great win, a great win over Alabama. They also have two losses. Those losses, by the way, happened one on a neutral site and one at home. And by the way, they got housed at home. Granted by a good team, but got beat at home, badly. So they've got two losses. USC has one loss. So don't you think that there should be something that there should be something that just holds them there regardless?

Well, yeah, okay, it's the Alabama win. Fine, I'm fine with that. I really am. So long as they continue to take care of business, but they haven't. Okay, so over the last two weeks, this is what we've seen from LSU. They went on the road and played an Arkansas team that the previous week had lost to Liberty. They played Arkansas's backup quarterback. In the game, Arkansas's third string quarterback took snaps. And LSU wins by three?

I'm sorry. What? Like, at some point, you have to evaluate that game, or else, what are we doing? But don't worry, they backed that up by playing UAB this last week. See, I clearly see that up above, you don't value Michigan's non-conference schedule like you do value Ohio State's non-conference schedule, which is why there is a clear point there where Michigan is below Ohio State. But down here, we don't get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to LSU and USC. Because LSU can play a three-point game against Arkansas, then play UAB.

And USC doesn't pass them even though they crushed Colorado and then went on the road, albeit across town, but on the road against UCLA, who has wins over Washington, and Utah, both top 20, what, top 15 wins, top 14 wins in your own rankings. USC beat UCLA. USC has probably the best quarterback in the country playing on their team, not even probably, like Caleb Williams playing as well as anybody in the country. If there's two players right now that I can confidently say those are the two best football players I've seen all year long, it's Marvin Harrison Jr., and it's Caleb Williams.

But apparently it doesn't matter to the committee because they're sitting behind LSU, who has two losses, just played UAB, beat Arkansas by three last week when Arkansas was giving snaps to the third team quarterback, but it doesn't matter that USC beats UCLA? And like, okay, well, they didn't play very good defense. I don't care. I... This is so obviously wrong. The committee is a failed experiment.

They don't even evaluate the games. They clearly value their own opinion from two weeks ago way more than what's actually happening on the field. I'm sick of it. It happened, by the way, at 7 and 8 as well. Because Alabama with two losses is still ranked ahead of Clemson, who only has one loss. After a week in which Alabama gets to play Austin P

and Clemson plays Miami, I get it, Miami's not very good right now. get it, right? I'm not saying that that's like a gangbusters win. Guess what? It's better than Austin P. And the bottom line is, is that Alabama beat Austin P. 34-0. If you beat Austin P. 34-0 in the first week of September, the sky is falling. But apparently in November, it's totally fine. And the committee just waves it off and they still stay ahead of a one-loss Clemson team? Like, come on. Like, what are we doing? So do you see why people start to distrust the system? When it's so clearly jaded? When it's so clearly not actually being evaluated on a week in and week out basis?

My one suggestion to those on the committee, do your job. Do your job. Because you aren't up to this point. And the only other suggestion, would just be stop. Stop. Because at this point, these weekly rankings,

all they're doing is building distrust in the system, building distrust in the sport, which ultimately hurts the sport. So we need to stop. We need to stop. Because what you're doing, you think you're really doing your job and, oh, man, look at me,

and I'm building my resume, going down there, being on the committee. But guess what? All you're doing is hurting the sport. When you don't actually evaluate what's going on on a weekend and week-out basis, all you're doing is hurting the sport. When you are basing everything that you do based on preconceived notions,

all you're doing is hurting the sport. You're not honoring the student athletes, as you call them, by actually evaluating what they do on a week-in-a-week-out basis. You're just saying, like, what did we think of these teams weeks ago or maybe even in the preseason? Do you know how I know that that's happening? Because Patient X here is Alabama. Patient X is Alabama.

Alabama is right now on a run of success that we probably will never see before in this sports history. What Nick Saban is doing is totally unprecedented and I don't think it'll ever be repeated. He's the greatest college football coach to ever live. He's currently still doing it. And Alabama is currently the best program in the country. Now, all of that can be true. and I don't have to overrate Alabama on this specific season. And that's what's happening.

Pre-conceived bias. Alabama, we felt, all of us, myself included, we all felt like Alabama was going to be as good of a team as we've seen in many, many years. They were as large of a betting favorite coming into this season as any team in the history of the sport. Okay? And it didn't pan out.

It didn't pan out. And yet, Alabama and the teams that beat Alabama are being treated as though they're still the greatest team ever. Again, they can be on the greatest run ever and this specific year could be falling short, which it is. And the data bears that out. This is not a knock against Alabama. And I hope all the Tide fans hear me say, you have the preeminent program in the sport. the team is not great this season. Alabama has played eight Power 5 opponents so far this year.

In those eight games, five of those games have been one-score games. In those one-score games, they are three and two. Just to give you an idea, if you go back to some of the great Alabama teams, like let's say the COVID year, 2020, that was an all-time great team, especially on offense. Guess how many one-score games they played? 1. And they played a 10-game SEC schedule plus an SEC championship game and then ultimately went through the playoff and won the national championship. 1-1 score game. 1. This year's team hasn't even gotten to the Iron Bowl yet.

They've played 8 Power 5 opponents. They've had 5-1 score games and they're 3 and 2 in those games. So this version of Alabama is not 2020. Okay? And we're treating every team that beats Alabama as if they're the Joe Burrow LSU team. And they shouldn't be. Preconceived bias is hurting the rankings currently. And these people that are in that room need to see that. Please see that. Because what you are doing every Tuesday is hurting the credibility of the sport. See, I don't care which conference wins the national championship. I don't. I don't care at all. Guess what I care about, the sport. I care about college football. That's why I meet with Greg Sankey as many times as I meet with Kevin Warren. Why? Because I care about

the sport. Okay? I want CBS and ESPN and ABC and us at Fox all to have giant ratings. Why? Because it helps the sport. I want more great matchups in the offseason. I don't want to see Austin P. Why? Why? Because it's better for the sport. I want to see playoff games on campus. Why? Because it's better for the sport. Overall, not for a particular conference, but for the sport. And this committee, and this experiment, over eight years of this committee, ranking teams on a weekly basis, has failed. Period. Period. Period. So Alabama and their preconceived bias towards Alabama is clearly affecting the way everybody is ranked. Now, what does that lead to? Well, the preconceived bias doesn't just stop with Alabama. It also bleakened. It also bleakened.

into the way that TCU and USC are being evaluated and then ultimately ranked. Okay, so TCU has more ranked wins than Michigan ahead of them, but they're falling behind Michigan. Why? Well, there's probably a lot of different reasons, one of those being preconceived bias. Now, you can also say that their best win, which right now is Kansas State, is a win in which they had to come back from double digits to win, and that's absolutely true. Whereas the best win for Michigan is a win against Penn State in a game in which, yes, it was close at a moment in the third quarter, but if you actually look at who controlled the game and how dominant the win was for Michigan, it was actually quite dominant, in particular on the stat sheet,

and in particular if you were in the stadium as I was that day. So I get it, right? So I'm not saying that TCU should be ranked ahead of Michigan. I'm just saying that like TCU in a clear fourth position at 11 and 0, in part is we didn't think that there were going to be any good to be begin with. Okay, so what we think about these teams in the preseason now is bleeding into how we rank them at this moment. Now, going into Thanksgiving, same thing is happening with USC. I don't think people thought that USC would be this good in Lincoln Riley's first year with all these transfers. Lo and behold, they are. They only have one loss. That loss is at Utah in a game in which Utah had to go for two in order to win, and yet they're still ranked behind a two. And yet they're still ranked

behind a two-lossed LSU team that just beat Arkansas by three, then beat UAB, and lost at home by a million to Tennessee. Granted, Tennessee is good, but so is Utah. I mean, they're not that far apart in your own rankings. So this is hurting, this preconceived bias, right? What we thought of these teams in the preseason is bleeding into the late season rankings. So what does that mean? What does all of this mean? Well, let's get down to the nitty gritty. What does it actually mean for the way the next two weeks are going to play out? First and foremost, if you are a Big Ten fan and a fan of a specific conference, I think that you saw these rankings and you immediately thought, oh my goodness, there's a clear path to two Big Ten teams in the playoff. And you would be right. And the reason is, is because the

committee clearly does not value USC. If you're not going to put USC above LSU after these last two weeks, then clearly the committee has some thought that USC is just not that good. Okay? That's just what they think. So if Michigan or Ohio State were to lose in a close game, do we really think they're going to fall all the way below USC? I don't know. I don't know. Even if USC were to beat Notre Dame, I think that that would be an argument. I think that that would be something that the committee looks at because, again, the committee clearly doesn't value USC. So now all of a sudden, we start thinking about, well, shoot, is the loser of that game going to be in anyways? And you know what? Maybe. Maybe. I think this is the Big Ten's best chance that they've ever had to get potentially two teams

into the playoff. And the next thing that I know now about the way that this is all playing out and how the rankings are playing out, and how this committee is not doing their job, but eating a lot of free scones, is that USC needs a lot of help. Now, you could be sitting there thinking to yourself like, no, you know, I mean, not really because, you know, Ohio State and Michigan, they're going to beat each other.

And then Georgia and LSU, one of them is going to beat each other. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I get it. But you really think that they're going to rate the loser of this week's game, Michigan or Ohio State below USC when they're doing what they're doing to USC with LSU, So, like, that's not a guarantee. So it's pretty clear to me that USC not only has to win out, but they need two very specific teams to lose.

Specific. LSU. They desperately need LSU to lose another game. That's number one. And TCU. They desperately need TCU to lose, preferably in their conference championship game. Or else, I don't see USC getting in. Because, again, this committee just does not value.

a USC team that just went on the road to UCLA and beat that UCLA team that had a couple of rank wins on their resume. It's pretty telling. It's pretty telling. So USC needs a lot of help. The last thing that I'm looking at right now is I'm thinking to myself, boy, there really is a pretty clear path to two Big Ten teams and two SEC teams going to the playoffs. The reason I say that is I just, I don't know if Clemson's going to climb up. high enough. If they can't even climb above Alabama on a week in which Alabama only beats Austin P from the FCS 34-0, then I don't know if Clemson has a real path at this thing, which means that if LSU were to beat Georgia and Michigan or Ohio State play a close game, then all it takes is a TCU loss and a USC loss. And we're talking about two Big Ten teams and two SEC teams in the playoff in the form of Georgia, LSU, Michigan, and Ohio State.

That's the way that it all played out. Those are all the mental gymnastics that I went through when I started watching this show, when I started seeing what they were giving us. And by the way, I'm giving you a lot of hand motions today. And why? Well, because I'm emotional. Oh, man. Okay, last thing that I want to do.

Last week I told you that there were 33 teams still available or with a path to a playoff spot if the playoff were the 12-team format that will have in the future the proposed format. So after last week, how many would we have going into this week? Well, we did it. We got the list together and here it is. This list, I believe, is that 25? Yeah, I believe it's 25. 25 teams would still have at least a shot at the playoff. Now, some of these are an outlandish shot, and I understand that. But remember, with six of the spots of a 12-team playoff going to the six best champions from throughout the sport,

anybody who's still alive for a conference championship, a championship game birth, would still be alive to go to the playoff. Then you've also got those six at large spots, and so you can kind of look at the rankings, and you can kind of see who would still be alive for those spots. So here you have it. I'm going to list them for those spots. for those listening.

Here are the 25 teams that would still be available, if you will, in an expanded college football playoff. By conference, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Alabama. Ohio State, Michigan, Purdue, Iowa, Illinois, Penn State. TCU, Kansas State, Texas. USC, Oregon, Washington, Utah. Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame, UCF, Tulane, Cincinnati, and Coastal Carolina. If you tell me that this would not be better for the sport, then I have no hope for you.

I'm sorry, but that's just the bottom line. This is going to be better for the sport. It needs to happen soon. I implore those that are in the conversations, whether it's the people with the Rose Bowl or the people that are with the expanded playoff committee. Get it done as quickly as possible because right now the subjective four-team invitational with this committee that gives us rankings every Tuesday night is ruining the sport. It is eroding the trust in what is the ultimate achievement in the sport, which is the national championship. Okay, that's going to do it for

today. By the way, tomorrow's Thanksgiving, folks. How about? that. Happy Thanksgiving, happy Thanksgiving week, a huge breakdown of the game. Michigan and Ohio State, 11 and 0 against 11 and 0. That's coming up tomorrow on Thanksgiving. So before you eat and you gorge out and you sit around and watch football, there will be a brand new Joel Clatt show right there, wherever you get your podcast. Make sure to listen to it. I'm going to preview all the games or maybe even just when you're watching games. You want to pop it in and I guess you don't pop it in like the old CDs anymore. Turn it on, I guess is the way you say it, right?

Or just start it. Hit play on the downloaded podcast, folks, because I know that you're rating, you're reviewing, you're downloading, and we appreciate that so very much. You can follow me on Twitter at Joel Clatt. You can follow me on Instagram at Joel underscore Clat. You can follow the show. We've got all of our content. Everything that we do goes up on social media at Joel Clat Show.

I am so thankful, by the way, on Thanksgiving weekend that you, you listen to this show. So thank you very much. And again, tomorrow on Thanksgiving, make sure you tune in for our third episode this week. All right, everybody, enjoy your Wednesday. We'll talk to you tomorrow.