The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - College Football Playoff Quarterfinals Picks

Episode Date: December 30, 2024

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt discusses Cam Ward sitting out the 2nd half of Miami’s Bowl game as well as BYU’s dominant performance vs Colorado before getting to his picks for the College Football Playoff Quarterfinals. Klatt points out the keys in the matchup between Boise State and Penn State and whether Ashton Jeanty will be able to carry the Broncos to an upset. He then makes his pick for the Peach Bowl between Texas and Arizona State before breaking down the heavyweight matchup between Ohio State and Oregon in the Rose Bowl. He also considers how Georgia will cope without Carson Beck in their game vs Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl. 0:00-1:57 Intro 1:58-4:11 BYU beats Colorado 36-14 in Alamo Bowl 4:12-7:55 Cam Ward sits out second half of Miami’s bowl game loss 7:56-17:24 Fiesta Bowl: Penn State vs. Boise State 17:25-25:55 Peach Bowl: Texas vs. Arizona State 25:56-38:09 Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon 38:10-43:33 Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Georgia 43:34-44:46 Joel’s Picks 44:47-45:51 Outro Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This game should be incredible. And I can't wait for it. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. What's up, everybody?

I'm Joel Clatt. This is the Joel Clatt show. This show is always brought to you by Hampton, by Hilton, and we thank them for their support. I hope you had an incredible Christmas with the ones. that you love. We did here at the Glad Household. In fact, we got one of the big nets with like the squares in it with the targets. And we haven't taken it outside yet. And I'm sure you're probably like us. If you've got kids like I do, I've got 12, 10 and 7 years old. And they've just been

having target practice in the living room while we watch TV into that net. So that's been fun. But again, I hope you had a wonderful Christmas. Hey, listen, thank you so much for being a part of this show. Last week's episode did really well. And we appreciate that as always. If you haven't gone to the YouTube channel, go over there and subscribe to the YouTube channel. Hit the notification button. Get in the comments below. That's always a good time. Make sure to rate and review us if you're listening to this podcast, wherever you like to listen to your podcast.

And then wherever you like to social media, all of our content is out there on social media. And you can follow us in any of those places at Joel Clatt Show. You can follow me personally on X. I'm at Joel Clat. Okay, let's get into this because we've got picks and previews for the second round of the college football playoff, which I'm super fired up about. And let's hope that the discourse is more positive in this round than it was in the previous round.

And I hope it will be, in particular after all the pushback that everyone got. But before we get into those picks and previews, there were a couple of things that happened in college football that were not playoff related. And I wanted to touch on that. That Alamo Bowl was really impressive from BYU. So kudos to Kalani Sataki and the BYU cougars. what an incredible season they had, and they absolutely handed it to Colorado. They had a great defensive game plan.

They got after Shadour in the backfield. He had no time to throw. Colorado continues to not understand how to throw a quick game, which is really maddening if you're watching from my perspective. But that is what it is. And a lot of that was due to BYU and the way that they were rushing the quarterback and then confusing the quarterback in terms of the coverage and how they were manipulated.

that. That was a fun game to watch. I got to tell you, because of the impressive performance from Sotaki and that group. From a Colorado perspective, I will just tell you, though, it is a bit of an end of an era with these two incredible players. Shador Sanders and Travis Hunter meant so much to this university in a larger sense, but certainly this program. And what they've done on the field has been utterly remarkable, in particular when you're taking a look at this, from where this program was when they stepped in the door. You see, as a player, every one of us wants to leave the place that we came to better than when we found it. And those two guys did that. And not many do, you know, I mean, it's rare, to be quite honest with you. And everyone wants to. And yet they did.

And they did in such a significant way that as an alum, I will just tell you like, I was really thankful for the last two years of getting to witness these two guys, Shudor Sanders and Travis Hunter, and all those older players and seniors on that team. And what Dion has done with that program, it's been remarkable. You've heard me talk about it a lot. And, you know, the older players for BYU played incredible in the automobile. Look at what they get to do is they get to leave their program with 11 wins. Like, what a legacy for those BYU Cougars. That was awesome. And there's certainly a legacy for Colorado with some of those older guys leaving the program. So thank you. you from an alum to Travis, to Shador, to all the older players, to Deon for everything you've done

over the last couple of years. And hopefully there's more of that in the future. Another thing that happened in college football was this Cam Ward issue from the Pop-Tarts Bowl. So Cam Ward didn't play in the second half against Iowa State. Iowa State comes back and they win the game. What was it? 42, 41. And unfortunately, we're not talking about just this idea that like Cam Ward had an incredible career in college football, one of the best we've ever seen, setting records. And no, no, no, no. The discourse is going to be about that Cam decided not to play the second half in that Pop-Tart bowl. And it's like, okay, I immediately, my antenna perked up because I'm like, wait, wait, who are the people complaining about this?

And as usual, the people that are complaining aren't necessarily the ones that you would expect to be complaining. You see, you would expect that this was coming from the Miami fan base and like teammates and coaches. And yet, that's not the case. That's not the case. And if I'm wrong, by the way, and you're a Miami fan, please like jump in the comments and tell me like, no, you're dead wrong. I'm really frustrated. I don't sense that that's the case with the Miami fans. I sense that the people that are frustrated with what happened in the Pop-Tart Bowl with Cam Ward sitting out the second half are the same people that, like, to yell about everything in college football.

And they just want a point when anything happens that they don't like. This is the old guard. This is the old guard. It's like the last of the water circling the drain in the bathtub that it's just swirling and swirling and they get louder and louder. And you know, like it's all calm when the water's draining. And then at the very end, it gets like all rough. This is the very end for the old guard in college football because things are changing

and things are changing in a great way. But what you hear is the noise. and everything that that old guard doesn't like, they scream about and they get on Twitter and they're, what is this, play for your teammates, all this stuff. And it's like, okay, okay, what do his teammates say? What do his coaches say? What does the fan base say?

And I'll just tell you this, if I'm a Miami fan, I'm thankful that Cam Ward chose Miami because we didn't have nearly the season we were going to have if he wasn't there. Not even close. look at what this guy had to do and overcome from a defense that was giving up copious amounts of points, in particular in the middle of the year, games against Virginia Tech and Cal and so on and so forth. And yet he kept them in it. And what an incredible run. And by the way, it was real at Miami.

Like you had a chance, you had a real chance at the college football playoff. That's exactly what they wanted from Cam Ward. And he delivered on that. You see, he gave Miami what they expected. And tell me if I'm wrong, but I don't think I am. I don't think they care about the second half of the Pop-Tart bowl. I just don't. I just really don't. And so, again, I just always think of it.

And I would encourage you all, too, is like, really take a look at the people who are complaining. Are they the last of the water in the bathtub circling around being as loud as they possibly can? Because they don't like change. They're sinking. like college football is going in a different direction. Bull season will look different in the future. There might be a situation where we don't have conference tie-ins, right? And so we can have like a tiered bowl system outside of the playoff that actually could be pretty cool.

It actually could be pretty cool. We need to expand our minds, get outside of the box, and don't listen to the water that circles the drain at the bottom of the bathtub. Let's get into our pick, shall we? I think I spent even too much time on that than I wanted to. Our picks this season have continued to be very, very good. Two and two in the first round of the college football playoffs, so not excellent, but two and two against the spread. We are now on the season here at the Joel Clash Show, 51 and 32.

I'm just going to give it a, just a slow clap. You might say this is like huge narcissism. And I understand that, but don't worry. Steve and I go through these together. Steve Owens, 1969 Heisman Trophy winner, 51 and 32, 61% against the spread, like, we've got your back now. We've got your back. And so here they are. We've got second round picks. And we're going to go in chronological order how you'll watch the game. So we're going to start with the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve, number six Penn State against

Boise State. Penn State right now, as we're recording this, here, they are a 11.5 point favorites. So that's the number that we're going to be basing this off of. Penn State giving the 11.5. Now, let's take a look at this game. Okay. So first and foremost, with this game, I will just say, and I think we all agree, Penn State's playing their best football. Now, I think this even with their loss to Oregon, you can look at that loss and you can say, like, yes, it was a loss. Or you can look at it and you can say that was one of their best performances in a game against a legitimate top five team, that we've seen in a long time. And that's the way that I'm going to look at this,

because I've seen all these games. I've seen them struggle against Michigan in previous years, in Ohio State in previous years. I saw how close they were to beating Ohio State, let's be very frank, in Happy Valley this year. They're getting closer. Now, the naysayers aren't going to want to hear that, but they are getting closer.

And the way they played, even in a loss to Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, and then the way that they played against SMU, it signals to me like they're ready. I think that Penn State is ready for the stage, and this is a team that is better than Boise State. Boise State is still, as good as the story has been, they're still a group of five team, okay? And they are not nearly the roster that Penn State is, and they're not playing as well as Penn State, not even close. Penn State looks like at this point they are playing as good of football as maybe anybody in the country. This could be the team that winds up exiting that end of the bracket and plays for a national championship.

37 points over 500 yards against Oregon. The defense locked up SMU. We saw that firsthand. I guess not firsthand, but live. Two pick, six is, only 10 points allowed. They were terrific. And then they're getting the ball to the right people on the offensive side. Nick Singleton, Ketron Allen.

These are the guys that are handling the football and they're delivering. They're delivering. this offense has been incredible. If you look at those two guys just in general, five touchdowns, almost 500 scrimmage yards over the last two games. So Andy Kodlnicki, their offensive coordinator, is doing exactly what James Franklin wants him to do and really charged him to do,

which was make sure that the football is in the best player's hands at the right moments. And he's done that. And he's done that. I think he learned a hard lesson against Ohio State. Because in that game, if he gives the ball, to Tyler Warren inside the five, at some point, they likely score. They don't. They get stopped on fourth down and then the Buckeyes in the game on the field

with that run game. That's a tough lesson to learn in a loss, but he gets to learn it. And I think you're going to hear that at different points here today as I roll through these games. A big part of coaching is learning lessons and then correcting yourself. And I think Penn State has done that based on the way that. they're getting the ball to the right people. Now, on the opposite side, I told you that Boise doesn't have the roster that Penn State has, and that's true. That's absolutely true.

Everybody wants to make this like, oh, they played great against Oregon. But just remember, now a group of five team wins the worst time in the course of the season to play a good quality group of five team early. Because the biggest difference between a high-end group of five team and a power four team, the difference is depth. The difference is attrition. So what you want is a season. You want to play one of those teams at the end of the year when they're clearly not as good as you because you do have the depth in the power four. And in particular, at the top of the power four, which is exactly where Penn State is. Now, having said that, Ashton Genty is as an elite

of a back as there is in the country. Love Ashton Genty. He's remarkable. And I went over this when I did the Heisman episode, but this guy is absolutely remarkable. His sustainability during the course of the year has been really something to watch. I mean, the number of carries that this guy has and then the productivity that he maintains, you think about this guy week in and week out getting 30 carries, 30 carries, and now he's had three and a half weeks of rest. So you know you're going to get a fresh number two, and that's dangerous. And Oregon found that out early in the year.

I mean, this guy almost ran for 200 yards against Oregon. So Penn State's going to have their hands absolutely full with Ashton Genty in that run game for Boise State. And I will say this. I think that the best way to attack Penn State's defense is running the football. If you look at what they do best, it's play in space and play aggressive attacking style with length and athleticism. That's like Penn State's defense to a T. They're really good at that. Abdul Carter is very good at that.

All of these guys. There are a lot of good players on that defense. Now, here's a knock that I notice on film. If you want to get after them in the run game, they will jump around blocks at time because they want to play with athleticism and speed. Okay, so how did Michigan get after them last year? Well, they pounded them.

They brought in extra offensive linemen. How did Ohio State get after them late and put that game away this year? They pounded them with the offensive line. And guess what happens? Penn State shied away from that. They jumped out of gaps. They weren't as sound. So do I think Boise is going to be able to play well in this game?

I actually do. For about a half, I think Boise plays outstanding in the first half. I think Penn State is sluggish at some point in that first half. and we've got an absolute game in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve. I don't think Maddox Madsen is going to be able to do a ton with the speed of the pass rush and the length of the secondary. They do have Cam Camper on the outside. He was an Indiana receiver that transferred to Boise. He's kind of been their best player.

Madsen's been good in terms of not turning the football over. But remember now, Boise's M.O. is that they're the better team than their opponent. almost every time they're on the field. We like to think about, in college football, we kind of like to think of Boise as this little engine that could with the blue turf. And it's like, oh, man, it's such a great story, Boise. But in actuality, Boise is the big brother of their conference.

They're the better team than their opponent almost every time they walk out there. So the game plan that they get to use is a very safe one. They don't often have to get outside of their comfort zone because they're better than their opponent. now they're going to have to get outside of their comfort zone. See, how do you wind up with Madsen only throwing three interceptions all year? Because they play a run the football, don't turn it over style of game.

Guess who can do that? Teams that are better than their opponents. We see this all the time in all the conferences. And that's what Boise is in their conference. So Penn State's going to have to get Boise out of their comfort zone. And I believe that they'll be able to do that. I do believe that Gentie will get going a little bit in the first half and it'll slow down in the second.

That attrition, that depth issue is going to pop up in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter, and that's when I think Penn State is going to ultimately start to pull away in this game. Boise's defense is only 71st in the country in terms of yards per play. They're not going to be good enough. Even if Aller turns it over at some point in this game, like Penn State's going to end up scoring some points. Again, they could look sluggish early in this game, possibly. And it's not going to matter. depth is going to be an issue. They are a better team than Boise State, and Penn State does not

lose to teams that they should beat. They just don't anymore. They don't. The only games that they're losing are like tough, top five matchup battles, and this is not one of those. This is, let's just put it this way. I think SMU is a better team than Boise. Like, they're going to beat Boise State, even if it's sloppy early. I like them winning this game. I like them covering the 11 and a half. I think that late in this game, you wind up with something like, Penn State 38, Boise State, 24. I think that that's a comfortable win. I will give the 11.5 and I will take the Nittany Lions,

and they are off to the national semifinal. All right. Early game on New Year's Day. Let's move on to the Peach Bowl. One thing, and you heard me kind of touch on this in the first game, we don't in college football ask teams, generally speaking, to be really good back-to-back games. That's not really a thing in college football.

Even with our regular season being as important as it is, and more important than almost any other sport that certainly we as Americans watch, there is this idea, though, that, like, in college, because of the margin between the teams that you see on your schedule, very rarely, very rarely, do we expect a college football team to be great back-to-back weeks. And very rarely are they great back-to-back weeks?

Now, there's a bit of a layoff here between the first round and the second round, but I do believe that one of these teams that played and won and looked really good at home is going to look bad in this round. Because, again, it's not a thing that we do in college football. we rarely ask a team even to go on consecutive weeks on the road, especially in conference. Like, that's almost never a thing.

It's you look at some of these conference schedules. And when you get to the big boy games, like the big boy games that we know are going to be big and rivalry and so on and so forth, there's always either a cupcake or an off week prior. So one of these teams is going to place luggish. You know, and I mentioned that maybe with Penn State. I think that we could see that in the first half with Penn State and Boise State. You could see Penn State or Texas overlook their opponent. Because Boise State and Arizona State, I'm sorry,

they're just not going to strike a ton of fear into Penn State and Texas. They just aren't. So, like, at some point, I think those are your two, those are your, your two biggest, those are your highest risk teams of playing poorly after looking really good in the first round of playing poorly would be Penn State and Texas. So now we go into this game with that in mind, this Peach Bowl, January 1st, Arizona State, Texas, Texas favored by 12 and a half. Wow. That is a healthy number. That is a healthy number. That one jumps out and you're like, Oh, knowing what I know about teams playing well consecutively, teams being asked to play well consecutively,

and all of a sudden, you know, you win a big one at home and you go out there and you're facing this Arizona State team that's like, I don't know if those guys are really going to respect Arizona State, although they should. And it's a huge number like 12 and a half. What should we do with it? What should we do with it? On the field, Texas ran all over Clemson, 292 yards against Clemson. And what's so weird about Texas is that, save for two games, you would just say, bank on their run game being great. Bank on their offensive line playing really well, dominating the line of scrimmage and winning that area.

Bank on it. And then you have to deal with these two games against Georgia where they couldn't run the ball at all. And it's just like, it's honestly, it's madden. because of the up and down nature. Now, more up than down for Texas, there's no doubt. And then you get to like, is Arizona State good enough to do to Texas what Georgia did to Texas? Well, Arizona State is the number one rush defense in the Big 12 this year. The only problem is that's good for 27th in the country.

So it's like, is that as good as Georgia's run defense? I don't know. Do they have the defensive line that Georgia can put on the field, snap in and snap out? Probably not, but it's still the number one rush defense in the Big 12. I think this is a great time to catch Texas in this playoff. If I'm Arizona State, if I'm Kenny Dillingham, I'm like, yeah, I'm in, man. I think that this is a great time because you've got Texas coming off of that win, and you've got this spark plug, man.

You've got Cam Scataboo. And like, Scataboo, he don't care. He's like, he don't care at all. I love watching this guy. He's a versatile player. hard to bring him down. He runs tough. They were so good against Iowa State.

And that's an Iowa State team that is not a bad Iowa State team. And Arizona State made them look absolutely awful. It looked like Iowa State literally didn't know how to tackle. They missed so many tackles on Cam Scataboo. He was just running right through arm tackles. Their offensive line played really well. I'm a big fan of Sam Levitt. He's won 11 of the 12.

games now that he has started. I know we want to think of this as like an upstart Arizona State team, but like this is a real team. They've got a back that is absolutely dynamic. They've got a quarterback that doesn't turn it over that can get the ball down the field. Here's the problem, though, with Arizona State is that you're missing now your best wide receiver. That's to me a problem.

And they don't have a ton because really their second best best. option throwing the football is Scatabobo. Scataboo, excuse me. So that's what I don't love. I don't love that at all. I really, I wanted to make this a game. And then I thought to myself, what is going to happen in the Penn State? Boise game could absolutely happen in this one, which is you get this incredible effort. But in the end, the line of scrimmage for Texas is just too much. You know, their offensive line should be able to dominate this game at some point. The only games that they have struggled are when their offensive line has been taken to the woodshed by one of the great defensive lines in college football. And granted, Georgia's been up and down as well with their defensive line, but at least you know that they have that top end kind of potential.

Texas lost two offensive linemen. Jake Majors, Cam Williams, they're running back, Trey Wisner. He's banged up in the Clemson game. looks like all three of those guys are going to be back. Isaiah Bond is likely going to be back for this game. So now all of a sudden they get this dynamic aspect of their passing game and the speed in their passing game. And as you know, Sark knows what to do with that. I think that the biggest pause I have for Texas is actually Uers, Quinn Uers.

I said this before the first game, and I'll say it again. And it's like, if he's asked to go out. out there and be the reason that Texas wins, I've got my questions about that. But if they can just handle their business in every other area and he can just manage the game, execute the Sark game plan, then I'm fine with yours. Then I'm fine with yours. Banks is back. He looked just fine in that Clemson game after missing the SEC championship game.

So they should be good on the offensive line. I think in the end, in the end, Texas's defense is probably too much. much. I don't think Levitt is going to be able to throw the football on one of the best past defenses in college football in the Texas Longhorns. I think that Texas will be able to load up and put skilled, fast, quality defenders on Scatibu. And because of that, it's going to be too much for the 60 minutes. While ASU might even have the lead at halftime, I think Texas pulls away in the second half. I don't think that they get all the way over the 12 and a half, though. I think that a 10-point margin is what I'm comfortable with.

So I like Texas winning this game 3121. I think that I would take the 12 and a half with ASU just because, like, again, you're likely going to see one of these teams not play well. It very well could be Texas. And even Texas not playing well and getting a 10 point win, you could probably make some money right there with Arizona State if you take the 12 and a half. So I've got a sun double cover.

Texas wins and moves on 31, 21.1. I think the game everybody's waiting for the Rose Bowl. Here we go. January 1st, Ohio State, Oregon, in what I think most of us believe is the two best teams in college football, at their best are the two best teams in college football, having to play in the quarterfinals. The structure of this playoff is not right.

Hopefully it gets changed in the future. And hopefully we can get the seeding right because I hate that we're seeing this game now versus later in the playoff. However, seeing it in this game and then this venue, there is no better venue than the Rose Bowl, period. In fact, our sport should do everything that we possibly can to end the season in the Rose Bowl every single year as the destination in college football. The Rose Bowl should be the national championship game on January 1st every single year. it would be as good of a tradition as any in our country from a sporting perspective. And then we could have a transfer portal after that, by the way. That's a bit of a tangent.

I will move on because I could get going for a long time on that. Ohio State and Oregon. Okay, these two teams already played. It's a two and a half point spread. Buckeyes are favored. Everybody leaning in on the Buckeyes in particular how well they looked, really throttling and overwhelmed and overmatched Tennessee team. team with all that fake toughness with their shirts off in the cold weather and the warmups.

So here comes Ohio State. Now they're favored over Oregon after losing to Oregon in the regular season. What did we learn from that first game? Let's talk about that first. Okay. Ohio State is a much different defense structurally now than they were then. And the reason is that game. Let me take you kind of behind the curtain a little bit because I get a chance to not only talk with the coaches, but watch all the film and cover these guys. And we did a bunch of Ohio State games after that Oregon loss. And let me just tell you what was going on. Okay.

Going into the Oregon game, Ohio State was using a pretty basic defense. All right. And the premise being no big plays. And this goes back a couple of years. You remember a couple of years ago when they got beat by Michigan, Big plays. And then they got beat by Georgia. Why? Big plays. And so they needed to eliminate explosives. So last year, that's what they did. Now, they ended up getting beat by Michigan again and went 11 and 1 and didn't get into the playoff. But they did a great job. They were one of the best in the country limiting explosives.

And they did that primarily by just kind of like keep everybody in front, rush for and kind of a straight ahead style rush. Not a lot of blitzing, not a lot of cover zero, not a lot of unique. coverage is just keep everybody in front. Okay. And so that's kind of what they did against Oregon. Now, it was a little bit different. No, it would mix in some exotic pressures, but generally speaking, those pressures were bluff pressures where they're showing blitzing seven guys, eight guys, and then blitzing three, you know, rushing three and dropping everybody else out. And then what they were doing is that they were single covering on the outside, in particular to the far side of the field and got hammered, man.

Evan Stewart over Denzel Burke, those big plays down the field. And because they weren't really rushing the quarterback with any type of dynamic pass rush, guess what happened? Gabriel was allowed to sit there and throw the ball down the field. And that became a theme in hindsight to a lot of those big game losses that we had seen under Ryan Day in Ohio State is that they could not get to the quarterback with their pass rush, whether it was Michigan. or Georgia or Oregon.

They did not get any sacks. So Gabriel sat back there and picked apart that secondary, which they thought was going to be one of if not the best in America. The problem was is that guys like Evan Stewart, Tess Johnson, like they are fast. They are dynamic on the outside. So you give them time and you don't get to the quarterback. Okay. So what changed then, Joel?

Well, here's what changed. They decided to have a lot of internal discussion about what do we need to do with our defense. And there's primarily two things, and not to get too technical with it all, primarily two things. They wanted to change how their front four, their defensive line rush to the quarterback, and they wanted to make sure that Caleb Downs was much more involved in every single play versus just playing safe and back and everybody in front of him. So the defense started to morph and started to morph a little bit. And here's what you got.

You got a lot more stunts. What's a stunt, Joel? it's when the four defensive linemen don't rush just straight ahead on their own, but they twist. So the tackle goes outside and the end comes inside and that's a twist. Or one end goes all the way to the far side and there's all sorts of these twist structures that we've got with the defensive line. And when that happens, it's tough to block as an offensive line. And we've seen that paid dividends, more pressure on the quarterback.

We saw it against Tennessee. We've seen it against a bunch of teams. We saw it against Indiana in that game. they got some pressure on Drew Aller in that win over Penn State, and they were blitzing some of their linebackers, and they were willing to play more exotic in coverage with these three quality safeties that they have. So they've got ransom, and they've got Burke in the back end,

and they've got Igbenosin, and they've got Jermaine Matthews, a spare corner, but mainly they've got Caleb Downs. And Caleb Downs became kind of the focal point of what they do defensively by putting him in the middle of the field more. And I'm not talking about deep middle. I'm talking about like middle, middle of the field. So he can affect the run game. He can affect the passing game.

He can blitz. He can be in pass coverage. So all of that was a change. All of that was a change. And it was specifically for the idea that they were going to have to be different if they got to see Oregon again or any one of these quality teams in the top five in the country. Okay. So that's a long dissertation about like specifically why,

Ohio State is better suited to face Oregon now than they were then is this change in their defensive structure. Now, on the opposite side, here's what I love about Oregon. What I love about Oregon is that they've got this quarterback that candidly, even as a Heisman finalist, is underrated. Dylan Gabriel is the quarterback of the number one team in the country. They went undefeated. It's his first year with the ducks. And this guy looks like he is in complete control of their offense. I love watching this guy play. And let's face it, his first. first month, it wasn't great. Their offensive line wasn't great. They had a couple of those sneaky wins, and you're like, wait, hold on. Remember, we dropped them all the way down to

like eight, nine, ten in the rankings. And then all of a sudden, they got right against Oregon State and they've been better ever since, ever since. This is a really good football team and a quarterback that really gets it. And I thought that his performance against Penn State was a case study and what a guy can do against an athletic and aggressive pass rush. He's going to be under duress. These pass rushers for Ohio State will get pressure on him. There's no doubt. Sawyer, Tui Moloow, all these guys, all these blitzes that they're going to bring.

But if you watch the Penn State game in the Big Ten championship game, you see these subtle movements of how he can allude and create just a little bit of space, create a little bit of time in order to get the ball down the field. He did it so many times, third downs, fourth, downs. And you see these subtle movements, and it reminded me so much of the way that Michael Pinnock played against Texas in the semi-final last year. You remember for Washington, like Texas was getting all sorts of pressure on him, and then you look up at the end of the day, and it's like, they didn't sack him. So did they affect him? Well, not really, because he was

brilliant in the pocket. And Gabriel showed elements of that against Penn State in that Big Ten championship game. I think he's going to have to do more of that in this game. Because this Ohio State defense is really good. They are really good. I think they're the best defense in America. Their biggest weakness are the corners, the one-on-ones on the corners. I don't think Burke can hold up in a speed type of matchup against Stewart. And Igbenosin has had major penalty problems.

In fact, when I was leading into the Michigan game, he had more pass interference calls than anybody in the country. over the last two years. That's a problem. So if I was Oregon, I would attack number one, the corner for Ohio State. Attack, attack, attack. That's what Indiana should have done. That's what Tennessee should have done. That's what any offense really should do because the interior of that defense is very good. The defensive line is very good.

The linebackers are good. The safeties are excellent. Downs is one of the best players in America. So you've got to attack the corners. And they've got the personnel to do it. So where do we think that this is all going to end up? Well, the one thing that I haven't touched on is just like, how does Ohio State want to play offensively?

How do they want to play offensively? Isn't that the biggest question of the night? I guess day in the beautiful Rose Bowl? It's got to be the biggest question. Because if this team plays or has a game plan like they took into the game against Nebraska or like they took into the game against Michigan, then Oregon's going to beat them. but if they have a game plan like they took into Oregon the first time, even in a loss,

or Tennessee in the first round of the college football playoff, then Ohio State will win. See, so much of this I think is dependent on how aggressive is this offense for Ohio State. If they're aggressive, they will score points. There's no doubt. And that's not a knock against Oregon's D. It's just the fact that like the statistics bear out that Oregon's defense likely will give up some points. They've faced three playoff teams.

Beating all three of them, by the way. Again, they had the best regular season of anybody in college football. They beat Boise, they beat Ohio State, and they beat Penn State. And yet, every one of those teams, all three playoff teams, scored 30 or more points. So I think we'd be foolish to sit here and think that all of a sudden Oregon's going to hold Ohio State under 30 points. I don't think that that's going to take place. Ohio State, if they want to, and trust me, man, they should have learned that lesson by now, whether it was the Nebraska close win or it was the devastating defeat to Michigan,

you've got to learn that number four needs to touch the ball, quick game to number two, Amecca Abuka, you've got to get the ball to Carnell Tate. You've got to get the backs, the ball in space. This is a team that should have learned that lesson. Seems like they did against Tennessee, which was a good defense coming into that game, and really didn't stop Ohio State one time. I think they punted twice with their starters all night, maybe once with their starters all night.

In fact, I think their second punt was with the second team. So the fact that Oregon gives up some points when they face quality teams, 30 in each of those games against playoff teams, and the lesson that Ohio State learned against Michigan, we have to assume that the Buckeyes are going to score some points. And now you just have to make a pick. And this is the toughest one. Ohio State's favored by two and a half.

Who do I think is going to win? And by how much? I have gone both ways on this ever. And now I just like I have to make it. And I know like I solidified a pick. And so I'm going to have to stay with it. You'll see by the score, I'm just hedging all around.

Ohio State 42, Oregon 41. Oregon covers. because they're getting two and a half and Ohio State wins and moves on. This game should be incredible. And I can't wait for it. Last one of the night. Sugar Bowl, let's go.

This one should be really good too. Notre Dame and Georgia. Okay. So which Georgia do we get? Which one? And I think that answer is, very dependent on their defensive line. Because you see, there are some games where their defensive line is totally dominant.

And if that team shows up, then they can win this game. You bet. You bet. In fact, you look up and it's like, they're favored by one and a half. So I get it. I get it. If you get the defensive line that played Texas twice, they could absolutely beat Notre Dame. What happens if the defense shows up that played Alabama and Jalen Milrow or Georgia Tech or Kentucky, for that matter? You know, like, or Ole Miss.

Like, they have been so up and down. Like, Texas ran the ball against everybody. And then all of a sudden against Georgia, they didn't have a prayer. And yet these other teams are running it just fine on Georgia. I think a lot of it has to do with the fact that then, that with Milrow and with Haynes King, so against Alabama and against Georgia Tech, the quarterbacks can run. So the mobility of the quarterback became a real issue for Georgia.

I think that's very clear. Then on the opposite side, you look at this Georgia offense, and I'll tell you what, man, this Georgia offense is just okay. They're just okay. Georgia was 15th out of 16 teams in, the SEC in rushing this year. And they're starting their backup quarterback. Okay, so you can't lean on the run game if you're Georgia. They were 15th out of 16 in the SEC. Notre Dame is very good defensively. Very good defensively. They've got one of the best

past defenses in America. It was very clear in that second half that after kind of the hoopla on the excitement was Stockton in there, they were scared to throw the ball against Texas. They didn't want to throw the ball against Texas. And that, to me, became very apparent. And so everyone can say like, oh, well, yeah, man, he runs around and, you know, that looked great in the second half. No, it didn't. No, it didn't.

Like, at the end, like, they were panicked to throw the ball. And he panicked and ran straight ahead and almost got his head knocked off. So do I trust the Georgia offense against the Notre Dame defense? The answer is no. They don't run it well enough for a backup quarterback to have success. Notre Dame is too good defensively. They're very good. They're very similar to Texas.

Notre Dame's got the third best pass defense in the country. They're in the top three in the country and passer efficiency defense and interceptions and total passing. Like they can get after it. So when I'm looking at this team, man, they can get takeaways. they're exciting to watch defensively. They've got some length. Marcus Freeman has this team totally changed.

This is a better defense than I think any of the defenses than Brian Kelly had. And it's more in the line of what Freeman wants. And now they've got an offense that can really lean on the run game, and namely a quarterback that can run the football as well. Now, he's not their primary runner. Love is tremendous. Jeremiah love is so good, man. And I love Jeremiah Love.

Yes, all the puns intended. And you incorporate Riley Leonard with his willingness and ability to run the football. And I think that Georgia could be in trouble. Now, everybody wants to say, like, you're just a Georgia hater and this enough. No, no, I'm not. When your team can't run the ball and they've got the backup quarterback and you're in trouble. One, just period. Now you're going to face a Notre Dame team that seems to be built, in particular on the offensive side,

exactly how you would build a team to give Georgia's defense problems. So yes, Georgia is in trouble. I don't love the one and a half. I think Notre Dame can absolutely win this game. Riley Leonard, I think he could have a big night. Notre Dame's defense, top three in the country, in terms of passing yards, interceptions, total takeaways. I like Notre Dame.

I really do. This is not the same Georgia team that we have seen over the last few years. It's just not. I think we get mesmerized with the logo and with their coach, but it's not. Even if they come out and play really well, I don't know if it's going to be sustainable with Stockton. I like Notre Dame 24, Georgia 17. I'm taking those one and a half. I actually thought this was the easiest pick of them all.

Georgia favored by one and a half with all of those elements. I'm taking the one and a half all day long. I think that Notre Dame wins, which means that my picks are as follows. On New Year's Eve at night, I've got Penn State. I'm going to give the 11.5. And I am going with Penn State. I'm going to take the 12.5 with Arizona State. But Texas wins the game by 10.

Oregon, I believe I will take the two and a half, and I think they lose by one. That was the toughest one. Ohio State, 42. 41, Buckeyes move on, Oregon covers. And then Georgia favored by one and a half, I'm taking Notre Dame all night long. And that one, I think Notre Dame wins it and moves on 2417. Now, Notre Dame fans, you're probably screaming right now at me because I picked Navy outright. And then I picked Indiana outright.

And so you might be thinking to yourself like, please. God know, don't do this, Joel, because we won those games handily and we don't want any part of you taking the Irish. And my point would just be like tough. Sorry, I don't know what to tell you. That's the way I think it's going to play out. So those are the picks and I can't wait. And again, like, let's just be positive about this thing because the playoff is fantastic. I can't wait for these games. You can't wait for these games. Let's celebrate the sport that we love. Right? Like let's stop yelling about it. Let's stop being negative about it.

Let's celebrate these kids and the teams and their accomplishments during the year. I don't know. You know, that's just me, though. So we'll just be over here at the Joel Clat Show having a grand old time. By the way, we'll be back with our review of these games. We're going to get on it. And we're going to have a recap episode right away on Thursday morning after these games. So be right here on January 2nd, Thursday, January 2nd.

We will have another episode. And remember, you can find us wherever you got your podcast. You can definitely find us on YouTube, so make sure to subscribe. Please hit the notification button and then leave a comment below. And then you can follow us on social media, agile class show, wherever you like to social media. Thanks to Hampton by Hilton for being a part of this program. I can't wait for these games. You can't wait for these games.

Let's go.