The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - College Football Playoff Semifinal Picks: Ohio State-Texas, Notre Dame-Penn State

Episode Date: January 7, 2025

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt makes his picks for the College Football Playoff Semifinal matchups as Ohio State takes on Texas and Notre Dame faces Penn State. He begins by looking at the Orange Bowl matchup between the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish and points out the blueprint for a win for each side. He also explains why this game is a tipping point game for the Penn State program in particular. He then shifts to the question of whether Texas can slow down this Ohio State team that is firing on all cylinders with players like Jeremiah Smith leading on offense and a suffocating defense. He explains what has changed for Ohio State in the CFP and what Texas has to do if they want to pull off the upset in Arlington. 0:00-3:01 Intro 3:02-15:59 Notre Dame vs. Penn State 16:00-23:08 Notre Dame and Penn State’s keys to the game 23:09-38:17 Ohio State vs. Texas 38:18-39:45 Outro Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

So the number one job Texas has in this game, number one, amongst other jobs, but number one, you've got to survive the first quarter. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. I believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Hey, what's up, everybody? Welcome into the Joel Clatt show.

I am Joel Clad. This show is brought to you by Hampton. by Hilton, and we have got another pick and preview episode ready to go. It is the semifinals, and we are here. I can't wait for this, man. I think that this playoff has been absolutely great. I am stoked that you have enjoyed it as much as you have, because we clearly see that with listenership and all the YouTube numbers.

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content. So YouTube channel, go subscribe, hit the notifications button. And then wherever you, you like to social media because trust me, I'm learning all this up. I'm about to turn 43. So I don't really know all this, but apparently like social media is essentially just your age. Wherever you like to social media tells us everything about your age. That's what I'm being told by all the youngsters out there. So wherever you like to social media, we're there for you. At Joel Clat Show. That's where you can find us. We've got all sorts of content out there. Big on TikTok, apparently. That's what I've been told. Big on TikTok. Big preview episode coming down. Only two games. So I'm going to try to get into these

in pretty good depth here as we've got Notre Dame and Penn State, Ohio State, and Texas ready to lock up in these semifinals. And again, I think that the playoff has been outstanding. outstanding. And I'm hoping that that continues through this week's games here on Friday. And just remember, we did go three and one last week in the quarterfinals, which means that we are now guaranteed for the year to be above 60%. We did not cherry pick games. We did not cherry pick lines. We picked against the spread, the four to five, six, seven best games of the weekend. And we are above 60%. So a remarkable run here on the Joel Clashow. And hopefully that continues over these next three games, two in the semifinals and then the national

championship. Let's get to it. Notre Dame and Penn State in the national semifinals. Notre Dame is favored by a point and a half. They're facing Penn State in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night. Both of these teams playing really well. Obviously, you don't get to this point without that. Notre Dame has won 12 straight. Penn State's only losses are to arguably the two best teams in the country, although it's hard to say that after the way Ohio State dismantle. Oregon and the Rose Bowl, but I think a lot of us thought that that game featured the two best teams in the country, Ohio State coming out on top. So Notre Dame 12 straight, Penn State only losses Ohio State and Oregon. Now, one thing that was very obvious last week, and this was touched on by a couple of people, but this idea that Notre Dame is kind of built for this. And yes, that was very obvious against Georgia. This is a fast physical team that is built. in the mold of a team that can go win the national championship. So I feel like that about Penn State and I feel like that about Notre Dame and more

specifically Notre Dame because of how they played at the line of scrimmage against Georgia. You could see that they were fast and physical. You could see that it was very difficult for Georgia to win the line of scrimmage. And in the past, that's something that we would have never said about a Notre Dame and Georgia match up. That's what it takes to win a national championship. and let's be, call it what it is. It doesn't mean you're built like an SEC team.

It just means that you're built like a team that can go win the national championship. And I believe that's the way that we should talk about it. You're built like a great college football team. And that's certainly Notre Dame and to a different extent, Penn State. I think it's pretty remarkable what Notre Dame has done through all of their adversity, really, when you're talking about the injuries that they've had. They lost two starting offensive linemen. They've lost two starting edge players.

They lost all-American Benjamin Morrison out of the secondary, Mills, the defensive tackle against Indiana. They still have Xavier Watts, obviously, but they're playing this well. They beat Georgia fairly handily, even without all of those players. It speaks to the depth that Marcus Freeman has been able to develop, number one, and then recruit and stockpile on that roster. It's an incredible roster. They've done a really nice job at Notre Dame, and this matchup will be. no doubt test that depth.

It will test how the Irish are built. Because on the flip side, Penn State, they have been building for this for years. Remember now, it wasn't that long ago that they lost handily to Ohio State and Michigan in their own division. They beat everybody else. They've always been able to handle everybody else.

But when it came to like the elite teams in college football, Penn State was a team that fell short. And to be very candid, they fell short by a wide margin a few years ago. I think about that game, I believe it was like 2022 at Michigan. They didn't have a chance. Couldn't stop the run. Later that year, they faced Ohio State in the shoe,

and it really wasn't that close. And then it started to get a little bit closer over the years. And then this year, it was like very close. They've got a fourth down inside the five against Ohio State to go in and tie the game in the fourth quarter. They played Oregon as well as anybody played them all year long, in particular in the back half of the year, and in particular in a championship game environment,

which they did in the Big Ten championship game. They have been building to a point where now it's time for them to have kind of like the tipping point game. Penn State needs it. They have been beating teams that they should beat for a long time. And candidly, that's exactly what SMU was and that's exactly what Boise State was. Teams that Penn State should beat. And then they did.

This is a game now that. falls into the separate category. This is a tipping point game for the Nittany Lions. They need to get over that hump. James Franklin needs to get over that hump. And we'll talk about ways that they can potentially do that here in just a moment. There's obviously health questions for Penn State and Notre Dame in this game. The two big ones, Abdul Carter, the star defender for Penn State, questionable whether he's going to be able to go, how effective he will be if he's on the field with that arm's shoulder injury. He has to be on the field.

I'm just telling you right now. I think that that was very evident, excuse me, against Boise State. His impact on the game is felt in a meaningful way because he is such a disruptive force right at the line of scrimmage. They move them around a lot. They've done a really good job.

Tom Allen, the defensive coordinator, I think has done a really good job of allowing Abdul Carter to play as a free disruptor. And during the course of the year, you've seen them lined up on the second level as a linebacker, as a defensive end, obviously, rushing the quarterback. They will line him up inside and start to stunt and loop and twist with Abdul Carter, lined up on the inside of the defensive line. Very difficult for an opposing offense to get a beat on where he's going to be located

and exactly how Penn State is going to use him. That's been very effective for Penn State. Tom Allen, again, has done a really nice job as he's come in in his first year after Mani Diaz left one of the best defenses in the country. He's taking it and he's kind of put his own twist on it. But again, Abdul Carter is the cornerstone piece of that defense. They need him out there. They really need him out there.

In particular with the way that Riley Leonard runs the football and kind of runs around. Now, on the opposite side, Notre Dame, they've also got this Jeremiah Love knee issue. Jeremiah Love is a dynamic back. I believe that he's one of the better backs in the country. If they would have had a better passing game, dropback passing game, I think Love actually would have been even better this year than what he was. Dynamic runner, but he's going to have that knee brace on, and we'll see exactly how effective he can be.

If you're anything like me, you've been kind of like scouring the internet and the Twitter sphere, if we call it Twitter even anymore still. Just about like updates, how are these guys looking in practice? What can we expect from them in this game? I'll be honest, I was not all that confident after seeing some of the footage of Jeremiah Love in practice at Notre Dame this week. Clearly clunky with that knee brace. We'll see if he has to actually wear it during the game.

You know, I'm reminded, and I know this is not as severe, but I'm reminded of a couple of years ago in, I believe it was 2022, I want to say, when Michigan went to Ohio State late in the season. And in the week before that game, Blake Corum hurt his knee against Illinois. And he left that game and didn't really return. And then all the talk was like, hey, will he be able to go? He's going to give it a go. he's going to give it a go. And he went out there and he warmed up that day. It was a cold day in Columbus.

And he got one carry. And it's like the first time that he had to actually jump cut live, full speed. It was like, nope, that's not going to be available. That's what watching love and practice reminds me of. It's three-quarter speed. It's all very, you know, soft in terms of how he's rounding cones and getting in and out of cuts. I just, I struggle with this idea that this hyper explosive player with great quick twitch ability is going to, with a giant knee brace, be as effective as he would normally be. So I think both of those players, Abdul Carter and Jeremiah Love, it's like jury is out on how healthy they'll be on Friday and how effective they'll be on Friday.

I think both of their teams really need both of those guys to be very good. And just real quick, like Penn State needs Carter because of the idea that Riley Leonard is so effective running the football, not just on quarterback design runs, but then after he decides to scramble, Leonard is not going to sit in the pocket and just kind of like read things out on a long basis. He's generally like one read, maybe one and a half reads. Maybe he gets to number two. And if it's not there, man, he's gone. And so Carter being on the field is such a huge part of Penn State. defensive success in this game because his athleticism will allow them to defend that aspect of Riley Leonard. Now on the flip side, Love is expected to play. How effective him he's going to be remains the question. So, Judarian Price, six and a half yards per carry. I thought he was effective in what

they asked him to do against Georgia, but they're going to need these guys. They're really going to need these guys. You think of how Oregon was able to hurt this Penn State defense. You think of how Ohio State was able to hurt this Penn State defense, there were times during those games when the backs were really effective for Oregon and for Ohio State. So I think the backs are going to have to be effective for Notre Dame. I do expect Penn State to put a decent amount of pressure on Riley Leonard. And that's not all that dissimilar to what they were facing early against Georgia. Remember, Georgia came out and was effective, I would say, rushing the quarterback.

man, they were bringing a lot of pressure. But what allowed Notre Dame to kind of weather that storm was this veteran aspect of Riley Leonard. Well, I don't think he's a great passer and they don't have a great passing game. He was effective enough because of his veteran presence that they stayed afloat during the best part of what Georgia was doing in that game.

And they ended up winning the game. He minimized the damage of what could have been a damaging first quarter. quarter, and then all of a sudden you look up and it's 3-3, and then all of a sudden, remember from the recap, that four-play swing happens where you get like strip sack, you get touchdown, then you get a kickoff return right in there, and then that game totally changed. Why were they in that position? Riley Leonard was able to limit the damage when Georgia was effective on defense. Notre Dame secondary is really good. Penn State. I don't think that this

is a matchup that favors Penn State, to be honest with you. I've talked with James Franklin for a long time about like what do you what do you think holds them back and his answer is always pretty consistent and he'll he'll generally talk about the fact that they don't have that one wide receiver that they just can count on and rely on and go to in a big situation now that sounds like a knock against tray wallace or amari evans or some of these other guys it's not it's not it's just it's just the truth. They each have made big plays, but it's not like they are guys

that you can just count on and say, we're going to him in this big moment. And that's generally what some of these teams have in this spot in the year. You get to the semifinals. You've got to have somebody that you just go to. Penn State, it's been Tyler Warren. It hasn't been somebody on the outside.

So if it's just a tied end, now the secondary, which Notre Dame's is very good, they can kind of key in, bracket, double, possibly the tied in. And I think that they're going to be able to do that a little bit because that section certainly favors Notre Dame. I already touched on this. And the last question before I get into like these real keys in the blueprint for each team, for Penn State, like are you ready to take the next step?

because Penn State now, over the course of the last three seasons, has been building and building and building to this point. We've talked about this recruiting class specifically with Abdul Carter and Nick Singleton and Ketron Allen and Drew Aller and these guys. And we've talked about them for a long time. And it's like, it's time for them to have a tipping point victory. They have not beaten somebody that they shouldn't beat. They have not.

in this entire time, they have become masters in the games that they should win. Masters, they don't lose those games. And by the way, that's not a, that is not a knock because Penn State is reliable in those games. But we haven't seen them raise the mountaintop, raise the ceiling and go have a tipping point victory. It's time for that for Penn State. It is time for that. Biggest key for each team. Let's get into the game actually here.

and just like keys right now. Biggest key for each team is going to be their ability to slow down the run game of the other team. Both offenses really need their run game in order to get going, both of them. And yet both defenses have done a terrific job, and specifically in the last couple of games, stopping the run. Penn State held Ashton Genty to a season low 104 yards on 30 carries. They did an incredible job against Ashton Genty. In a lot of ways, they should have run away with that game, but they didn't.

More on that in a second. Notre Dame, they held Indiana and Georgia, both to under 65 yards rushing. Their defense is doing a heck of a job stopping the run. Both offenses have to run it. So this is where the game is going to be won and lost right here, right here. So what's the blueprint for each team? Each team, let's start with Notre Dame. The blueprint for Notre Dame offensively, they've got to establish Riley Leonard as the run game.

Quarterback run game and quarterback RPO run pass option. that's where they were most effective against Georgia. That's where they were actually hurting Georgia at times, getting the ball out of Leonard's hands. If they're just going to sit there and drop back, that favors Penn State in a major way. They've got to be able to run the football, but they need to incorporate the quarterback, or excuse me,

the quarterback as a run threat within that, all right, to help offset what I think is going to be a fairly limited Jeremiah Love. If they can do that, then the RPO lines up. and that starts to open up, and now you can start to throw the football like they were able to do a couple of times against Georgia. That really is the blueprint for them offensively. For the defense for Notre Dame, you've got to take away Singleton,

you've got to take away K-Tron Allen, and you've got to double Tyler Warren. That's the whole game plan. It's an interior game plan. It's a between-the-numbers game plan. You live with whatever happens outside the numbers. If I'm playing Penn State and I'm Notre Dame, I'm taking away the run game as best as I can, obviously,

which they've been able to do that very effectively during the playoff against Indiana and Georgia. And then I've got to have at least four eyes, two sets. I've got to have a double team on Tyler Warren almost all the time. Because what we see from Penn State is that as soon as they get a critical down, a third down, something that they really need, they're going to Tyler Warren. And rightly so, he's a heck of a player. Mackey Award winner for a reason.

That's the game plan defensively. Got to take away the run, got to double Tyler Warren, and put the game in the wide receiver's hands. If Warren goes off, Penn State wins. If the game can be run from a Penn State perspective through Allen, through Singleton, and through Warren, then Penn State wins. And that goes directly to the blueprint for Penn State. Offense, you got to establish the two backs and Tyler Warren, regardless of if Notre Dame is trying to take them away. This is not a game where you can say, like, well, this is what they're doing, so let's go play somewhere else. No, no, no.

Andy Koldilnicki, the offensive coordinator for Penn State, he was brought in with one objective. And in fact, James Franklin said it wasn't an objective. It was a mandate. Get the ball to the best players in the biggest games. There is no bigger game than this. You're in the national semifinals. You win this.

You are playing for a chip. So folks, that ball has to go to Ketron Allen. It has to go to Nick Singleton. And it has to go to Tyler Warren. You cannot all of a sudden believe that Drew Aller is going to turn into some sort of consistent dropback passer without some of the outside threats that we see that they don't really have. Okay, this was the biggest problem against Boise State is that they were having success running the football and didn't lean into it. I'm telling you, man, get the blinders on if you're Penn State. Put them up.

And it's like, that's who touches the football. In the most creative ways that you can possibly get them the ball. Take a page out of Ohio State's book. with what they're doing offensively right now. Who's touching the ball in the first 15 plays for Ohio State? Jeremiah Smith, Mecca, Buka, Quinn Sean Judkins, Travion Henderson. That's it.

That's where the ball is going. Designed. That's exactly what Penn State has to do offensively. Defense, it's an all-out assault on Riley Leonard. You've got to force Notre Dame into a situation where they have to drop back and pass, that they cannot get the quarterback run game going. They cannot get the RPO's going.

If they're in second and long, advantage Penn State. Advantage Penn State's pass rush. That's where they've got to live. Hit them with speed. Hit them with speed. This is a defense predicated on length and speed. You've got to hit them with that speed. You've got to hit it early and often.

You've got to get to Riley Leonard. Comes down to basically, I think this is going to be an incredibly tight game. This line is tight. I think both of these guys are very good coaches. and I would just say this. I think that ultimately it comes down to, from a PICS perspective, who do you trust? And after the Northern Illinois loss,

I trust Marcus Freeman. Situationally, Notre Dame is very sound. Look at the way they executed that punt to offense, getting the offside. This team understands how to perform and execute. They also know who they are and lean into that blueprint defensively and offensively. They know what they are offensively, and they don't generally veer outside of that. That's the one question I have about Penn State.

And this is why I trust Notre Dame just a little bit more is because from Penn State's perspective, I love this team. This is a really, really good team that at times can get in their own way in these games. Think about it now. They had first and goal inside the 10-yard line against Ohio State in the fourth quarter in order to go in and tie that game. And all of a sudden, the guy who got them down there didn't touch the football and Tyler Warren. Did they learn their lesson? Didn't seem like they did when all of a sudden against Boise State, K.Tron Allen is the one going off. they're going to run the football for 300 yards

if Ketron Allen is just going to continue to get that outside zone carry and they went away from it and became a pass-first team against Boise State that has more sacks than anybody in the country. Like it didn't make any sense. So I don't know if Penn State has learned a lesson. Why have they not had the tipping point victory because of things like this? Because you can't overcome yourself and the opponent all the time in these games. you've got to play it correctly.

So I'm going to trust Notre Dame in this game. I think it's going to be tight. I think that Notre Dame wins 2420. I think they cover the one and a half. It's somewhat low scoring. I think it's going to be a great game and I can't wait for it. So I'm going to take the Irish 2420. That's a hard pick.

That's a really hard pick. Let's go to the next one. Cotton Bowl. How are we doing? Cotton Bowl. So Texas gets to play right in the state of Texas against Ryan Day. and the Death Star Supernova Ohio State Buckeyes. This team is playing the best football in the country.

Steve Sarkesian is absolutely right. Ohio State's favored by five and a half in a game that's going to be played right in the heart of Texas, which that should show everything because, let's be honest, I feel like the line should be more. I think the idea that this is played in Dallas is keeping the line artificially low. I really do.

because I don't look at lines right away. I always think of just like final scores. I look at the game and then and then I look at the line and that kind of informs who I pick against the spread. And in this game, I can just tell you like, I'm going to pick Ohio State and I am absolutely going to take them to cover. look at what they have done over the last couple of weeks. Let's get into this game. This is a matchup that I predicted would be the title game. So here they are late in the season.

They were on the same side of the bracket, so we're getting it in the semifinals. I believe this game will be almost, almost, won and lost in the first quarter. In that I believe Ohio State has the ability, and mindset right now to go turn this into exactly what happened to Tennessee and Oregon.

So the number one job Texas has in this game, number one, amongst other jobs, but number one, you've got to survive the first quarter. You have to survive what is inevitably going to be an offensive onslaught early of aggressive play calling from the best offense in the country. They've got to survive. Texas has built big leads over the last two games in the playoffs. Ohio State has as well. Texas,

you know, after the big leads didn't play quite as well. Ohio State kind of cruised to victory. Cruz to victory in both of those games. Texas has to survive the first quarter. Ohio State jumped out 21-0 on Tennessee, then 34-0 on Oregon. Those are the leads in the first two playoff games. If that's the case, it's a wrap. Both of those games were a wrap. Tennessee was not coming back from a 21 point deficit. Oregon was not coming back from a 34 point deficit. That is not happening, in particular against that Ohio State defense. So survive the first quarter.

That's number one. Let's talk about this Ohio State team, kind of what we've seen for a moment before we get into Texas. Obviously, the schematics have changed a little bit. I've talked about that at length. We saw the defense change a little bit, how they rush the quarterback, how they cover on the outside, taking away the first read on the outside, We've seen Nico Iomileava and Dylan Gabriel have to hold the ball.

The pass rush starts to show up. The only success Tennessee or Oregon had really was the ability of the quarterback to try to elude the rush and then find secondary and third in the progression wide receivers and sometimes even on broken plays. That was really the offense for Tennessee and for Oregon. There wasn't really anything in the base offense there for either of those teams. Okay. So we've talked about the schematics from the Ohio State defense and the way that they're playing. We have talked about what this offense is doing since the Michigan loss.

They have gone into speed and space. Players, not plays. Who's touching the football? Where are they getting it? And how aggressive are we being? And they are as aggressive as they have been all year long. I do think it's worth pointing out that the past game being dynamic early, has opened up their ability to be more effective running the football.

And when you see that, I'm like, okay, I went back and I was like, how much of that? Because on TV, it's almost all counter gap schemes, meaning they're pulling offensive linemen. They're pulling extra tight ends and they're creating extra gaps and they're down blocking. And so it's gap scheme running versus zone scheme running. And Ryan Day historically has been a zone running team. And I'm like, I haven't seen much zone. So I went back and I watched the film and I'm like, yep, they have basically abandoned the zone run game. They do not have the offensive line that can just sit there and push in a zone scheme,

which means they're kind of sitting there and staying in position, creating a hole. They can't do that. So they've got to kind of fold the offensive line and bring pullers in. And that type of countergap scheme has been really effective for them once they've opened up the defense via the aggressive passing game. that order is what's working. It's not run in order to throw. It's throw in order to run. And then you start getting the ball to these backs

and there's been some big runs that have popped because of that. So that's what we're seeing right now out of Ohio State schematically. However, that's not the best thing that's going on for Ohio State. The best thing that's going on for Ohio State is that psychologically, this team has totally changed. For the majority of the year, it looked like this team was going out there trying not to make mistakes. trying not to lose football games. That's the way they played against Michigan. That's the way they played against Nebraska, for that matter.

And then you started to see small glimpses of a team that could play free and easy and really have a psychological anger to go out there and prove themselves. You saw that a little bit early in the Indiana game and then for the entirety against Tennessee, for the entirety against Oregon. This team psychologically has totally changed. This is a team playing with something to prove with the freedom, of something to chase rather than protect, something happened in that Michigan game.

And it wasn't just that the schematics of the offense was broken. It was like the psyche of the old Buckeyes was broken. And now the psychological freedom and anger of this Buckeyes team has been unleashed on everybody that they play. That's the way it looks. That's the way it looks. Texas, I've loved this Texas team, got to cover them against Michigan.

That day, I thought, oh, yeah, this team could definitely win the national championship. Sark has built them and built that roster into a roster that can absolutely compete at the top end. And I am a huge fan of Steve Sarkesian. This is the second straight year that they're in the national semifinals. He has done a remarkable job at Texas. Really has. Because that program was essentially in the desert of college football for the better part of 10 years until he got there.

They could not figure it out. They were wandering around in the wilderness. looking at themselves, talking to themselves about how much money they have in their program, and just no success of any note to speak of. Now, back-to-back years, this guy has come in. His first year didn't go like everyone planned. It got a lot better his second year. And now here he is, and he's sitting here, back-to-back semi-final appearances.

He has done a great job. And they're only going to get better from this. He continues to recruit. He's got quarterbacks lined up now. yours probably is not going to be the Texas quarterback in the future. He's got Arch Manning sitting there. He's got young quality players. He totally rebuilt their line of scrimmage to be from a weakness into a real strength,

which we saw against Clemson play out, and even in some parts saw against Arizona State. So this Texas team, I'm a huge, huge fan of. Now, what are the issues with the Texas team? Well, the issues pop up when an opponent can beat and win the line of scrimmage, beat their offensive line. We saw that against Georgia a couple of times, and then we saw that really against Arizona State. I didn't think Arizona State was going to be able to sit there

and stop the run against Texas like they were able to do, and they did a really good job of it. Georgia obviously did that in both outings against Texas, one in Austin and then in the SEC championship game. Here's the problem for Texas. Ohio State's run defense, is a top five run defense in the country. And I think they're better than Georgia's run defense.

I think they're better than Arizona State's run defense. If you look at Texas and what they did against, you know, I would call like regular or average defenses, even in the SEC, they ran the ball well against Kentucky, 250, 240 against A&M. But then you go out there and it's like 31 against Georgia in the SEC championship game. Clemson's defense, not particularly strong on the defensive line.

Texas, 292 running the football. Arizona State, 53. Like, what are we doing with these peaks and valleys? Well, there's something in common. The front of Arizona State and Georgia is probably better than those other fronts. And so when they see somebody that actually has a bit of a spine and a backbone in their defensive front six and seven, they struggle running the football. Ohio State is the best defense they will have faced, period.

in particular up front, and especially with the way that that defense is playing specifically on the defensive line. That defensive line is playing incredibly well. That's a problem because when their run game is taken away, the dynamic nature of their play selection changes. See, Sark, when he's got the full throat of the offense going, now he's got something. The motions pop up.

The play action pops up, and it's really good. When he doesn't, Ewers just has to put a cape on his back, which he can at times. Again, the drive to score in the second half against Arizona State, Ewers was terrific. And then on the fourth and 13, like, step up and make a throw. That was brilliant stuff from Quinn Ewers on fourth and 13 from Arizona State. But like, can you do that from a sustained nature? They struggled to do that against Georgia and either matchup. They struggled at times against Arizona State.

And this is a defense that is the best defense that they will face. So Texas has got to establish some sort of run game, some sort of run game. Because if they don't, now it just becomes a U.S deal. And you're trying to throw against a secondary that's taking everything away from everybody. The first read is not there against Ohio State. They're taking that away. They're playing tighter to the line of scrimmage. They can take away the first read.

Their safeties are really good and very smart. And so they can confuse quarterbacks. They can change coverages. They're rolling and disguising incredibly well. And that is not good. What does it do? What does it promote? It promotes the quarterback to hold the ball for an extra beat. If you can't get to number one and then you're trying to decipher and diagnose what's going on in the back end, you hold the ball for an extra beat. And when you hold the ball for an extra beat against Ohio State,

the rush shows up. This is why they're so difficult to face right now. This is why they're the supernova of college football. So even when you're as good as Texas, the problem comes in as if you can't run the football. If they make you one-dimensional, it's over. And I'm not inspired. with a ton of confidence that the Texas offensive line is all the sudden against Ohio State going to show up and do what they did against like A&M or do what they did against Clemson.

All right, I would more lean towards, this is probably going to be a Texas offense that looked like what they did against Georgia. Take from that what you will. I do think yours has been playing really well. I was down on him a little bit

after the SEC championship game. I think he has played a lot better in the playoffs, and they're going to need a lot of that. He's going to have to be great. And here's why. Ohio State's offense is not going to get stopped. As good as Texas is on the defensive side, this is just not an offense that's going to get stopped.

Tennessee is a very good defense. And like you saw what happened against Tennessee. They are learning. Chip Kelly and Ryan Day have married, their two strengths, Chip in terms of running the football off of the passing game, and Ryan's ability to just be aggressive in the passing game, it has turned them into this dynamic offense. And when they want it, man, it's beautiful. Watching the film of the two first halves against Tennessee and Oregon, it's just like, oh my gosh, I would not want

to be a defensive coach watching that film and trying to put together a plan. You've got to be disruptive and you've got to hope that Will Howard plays like he did against Michigan and not against Tennessee and Oregon. That's the biggest difference to me. The one thing that's not getting enough credit for Ohio State offensively is the way that Will Howard has been playing the last two games. I tell you what, man, it is night and day difference from what he did against Michigan. Will Howard has been exceptional. He was really good against Oregon in that Rose Bowl. That film was his best film that he's ever put out, ever. ever. Now, is it going to be more difficult? Probably, because Texas's secondary is better than

Tennessee's secondary, and it is better than Oregon's secondary. So it will be a little bit more difficult, but man, when you've got the confidence to play like Will Howard is playing, it really should continue. His play has been the key to Ohio State, and if he continues to play well, they will win the game. And maybe by a large margin, maybe by a large margin. I just don't see, even though this game is in Dallas, I don't see this Ohio State team taking their foot off the gas. And if we're being really honest, the back half of the year, Texas has not quite looked like their full self.

And it's going to take their full self. They're going to have to win the first quarter to keep the crowd engaged in Dallas and not allow the Buckeyes to just run off and hide. they have to run the football. There's a lot of things. The dominoes that have to fall over for Texas are, to me, just too many. Whereas Ohio State, they've got a lot of paths to victory here. Steve Sarkesian is right.

Ohio State is playing the best football of anybody in the country. They've got a great roster. And if they play like that at all, they should win this game. I like Ohio State in this game, 3421. Ohio State is favored by five and a half. I am going with the Buckeyes. They're covering the five and a half. 34-21 Ohio State wins it, and I am predicting a Notre Dame Ohio State National Championship game.

I can't wait for these games, and we will be back with a Joel Clashow episode right after the games. So Saturday morning, come on back because I will have my full recap episode of these two games. We're going to stay up late on Friday night. We're going to get that done, and we're going to get it released to. you on Saturday. So Saturday, recap episode of the national semifinals. Then on Monday the 13th, we have got a really fun little exercise for you. I'm going to have my commissioner for a day, New Year's resolutions. What would Joel Klatt do in his first week as the college football commissioner? I have got that. And listen, for those of you that love the sport and love to think about

the future of the sport, come back on Monday, the 13th. because I think that you're really going to enjoy that episode. So Saturday, recap of the national semifinals, Monday, the 13th Commissioner Clatt comes at you with his fixes for college football. That's all coming up here over the course of the next week. Thank you so much for being a part of this program. I appreciate you listening or watching if you're on YouTube. Thank you for just being great fans because I've got to be honest, I love this sport.

I love others that love this sport. Let's celebrate what's going on right now. The playoff has been absolutely phenomenal. This is going to be a terrific end of the season, and I can't wait for it. We'll be back on Saturday.