The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Is Penn State a real threat to Ohio State & Michigan? Can anyone stop Georgia?

Episode Date: August 14, 2023

FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt dives into his big questions in each Power 5 Conference heading into the season. In the Big Ten, Klatt examines the 3-team race in the Big Ten Ea...st between Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State and breaks down how each team can come out of that loaded division. He then turns to the SEC and discusses who among Alabama, LSU and Tennessee could take down Georgia this year. Next, he heads to this year’s conference of QBs - the Pac-12 - before detailing the conference’s top teams’ chances of making the Playoff. In the Big 12, it’s about Texas. Will this be the year they finally realize their potential? Finally, Klatt reveals whether we should be buying the Florida State hype and if this is the season they overtake Clemson in the ACC. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 On this edition of the Joel Clad show, is the Big Ten East the best division in college football? And can anybody stop Georgia? College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was just one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Hey, hey, welcome into the show.
Starting point is 00:00:30 It is the Joel Clad show. I am Joel Clat. Welcome in. More preseason content for you from our beautiful new studios here at the digital space at Fox. Big show, I got to get into a bunch of different conference discussions. And really more so we're going to get into those discussions in the form of questions. Now, before we do that, remember, go follow us on social media because throughout the college football year, we're going to have all sorts of content that you don't find exclusively here on the podcast or on the YouTube channel.
Starting point is 00:01:02 that are going to be out there on social media. So any of the social media spaces at Joel Clatt show. There, you can follow me personally on Twitter or X, whatever you want to call it, at Joel Clat. You can follow me on Instagram personally at Joel underscore Clat. Okay. Last thing, by the way, subscribe to the YouTube channel because we've got our own YouTube channel and you should and it's really cool and we're going to have exclusive content
Starting point is 00:01:29 there during the course of the year. here we go. Let's start in the Big Ten. So the Big Ten this year is loaded at the top, which leads me to the inevitable question of, is the Big Ten East the best division in college football? Now, here's the very easy and short answer. Yes. Yes.
Starting point is 00:01:54 Now, they're not a lot of divisions in college football anymore. So, like, let's not take it too far. But yes, SEC still has divisions, Big Ten still has divisions, and the Big Ten East is loaded. Let's give some perspective on how good the Big Ten East is, at least here in the preseason. The last time that one division in college football had three teams open in the preseason top 10 was 2013.
Starting point is 00:02:21 That was the SEC East with Georgia at five, South Carolina at six, and Florida at 10. We are all fully expecting, and we have seen now that Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State are opening in the top 10. If you look at my rankings, which came out last week, thank you for listening to that show, by the way, watching that show. And if you haven't, go back and check it out my top 25 to start the year. You would see that they're all in the top five.
Starting point is 00:02:48 In most people's poll, Michigan's going to be two and Ohio State's going to be three. And Penn State's going to land somewhere between five and seven in most polls. So this is the best division in college football. So then how does it shake out? Well, this becomes like a really interesting question to look at. And we start with the team that has won it in back-to-back seasons, which is Michigan. In order to win this division, I think that you're going to have to beat Michigan, right? That might go without being said.
Starting point is 00:03:23 But they have the blueprint. And that blueprint ain't changing anytime soon. This is a team that clearly understands how to win football games and why they win football games. And they have done it so well over the last couple of years. Just look at these two numbers. And I think these two numbers really, well, they put it in perspective what this division is all about. 250 and 242. What do those represent?
Starting point is 00:03:52 Those represent last year's rushing yards in the second half. of the Ohio State and Penn State game. So Michigan was thoroughly dominant at the line of scrimmage when they needed to be against their two biggest opponents within their conference. So that's where this division is going to come down to. You're not going to beat Michigan unless you can control their run game. Okay?
Starting point is 00:04:21 Neither of those teams were able to do that last year. And it looks like it's going to be even more difficult to do that moving forward into this year. Michigan's offensive line, at least on paper, to me, looks like one of the two best offensive lines in the country, along with potentially Georgia. The thing about Michigan's offensive line is that it's deep. There's six, seven guys that you could argue are draftable players,
Starting point is 00:04:47 like NFL caliber offensive linemen, in particular, once you look at the guys that they've brought in from the transfer portal, it leads me to believe that with their two backs, Donovan Edwards and Blake Corum, that this is going to be a team that can just bludgeon people to death. I don't think they're going to come out and try to be fancy and score 50 points a game. If they're going to get to 50, it's going to be the old-fashioned way, and they're just going to hammer away with the run game at the entire Big Ten schedule.
Starting point is 00:05:18 Now, their schedule in particular early is not very difficult. So that run game is going to get its momentum early. I think that you're going to see what we saw from Stanford a few years ago. Remember when Stanford, they had that intellectual brutality mantra, and they would come out with a sixth offensive lineman on the field as an extra tied in. They would have a seventh offensive lineman on the field at times. Michigan's going to have the ability to do that. They're going to create extra gaps.
Starting point is 00:05:45 They're going to run power. They're going to do all sorts of different creative things in the run game. This is one of the things that Jim Harbaugh is actually best at and schematically is finding different and unique ways to run the ball, add extra gaps and force a defense to defend those extra gaps. They're going to do that, which means Ohio State and Penn State, what's your avenue to winning the division and representing the Big Ten East and the Big Ten East and the Big Ten championship game? You've got to stop the run. You've got to control the run game of Michigan if you're going to win that side of the division. And that seems like it's going to be
Starting point is 00:06:18 very difficult to do. Here's the other part that makes this tough for Ohio State and Penn State. even if you do that, now you've got to contend with a quarterback that has proven he can go out and win a game with his play. See, at this point last year, we didn't even know who was going to be the everyday starter for Michigan between Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy. Now we know, and it's J.J. McCarthy and what we saw in the shoe last year, and even in a playoff loss was that he could put the team on his back, and they could win because of the quarterback,
Starting point is 00:06:53 and not just with the quarterback. So even if Ohio State and Penn State can handle the run game, which is going to be very difficult, they're going to have to deal with a quarterback that has confidence and the ability to go win the game himself. So it's going to be tough. It's going to be very tough. Ohio State has got to get better on the defensive line.
Starting point is 00:07:12 Now, I think that they will be. This is what makes this so intriguing. The biggest question surrounding Ohio State for me is not about their quarterback. It's about their defensive line. because if you go back and you listen to the shows right after they're lost to Michigan, what did I say?
Starting point is 00:07:28 I said they got beat on the interior of each line of scrimmage, guard center guard or defensive tackles. Michigan was better and tougher in those areas. Ohio State had an inability to run the ball. They got forced into must-passing situations and Michigan won the game. Michigan, they were able to control the game and late get Ohio State into,
Starting point is 00:07:52 vulnerable defensive structures based on their need to stop them, and then they were able to pop big runs. That's what happened in that game. And so to me, that's exactly where Ohio State has to get better. Kyle McCord is going to be fine as a quarterback. If I'm a Buckeye fan, the last thing I'm worried about is the fact that I've got a new quarterback. The most imminent thing I'm concerned about is my defensive line good enough and better and up to par, to stop the run of the Michigan Wolverines
Starting point is 00:08:25 because that's the only way that they're going to go out there and win that division. Now, they're better. Guys like Mike Hall in there, they're better on the defensive line. They've got excellent pass rushers, but they better be stout in order to stop the run. Now, from Penn State's perspective,
Starting point is 00:08:39 what's the avenue for Penn State? Well, they're built to beat Ohio State, not Michigan. If you go back to last year, And I know that one of them, you know, was on the road. They went to Michigan. They had Ohio State at home. So you can say, well, maybe it was just location why they played Ohio State tougher than they did Michigan. See, I actually think it's blueprint.
Starting point is 00:09:06 Penn State is built with speed and athleticism on defense. And James Franklin's done a heck of a job, right? That was the only two losses they had. Great Rose Bowl win for them. Like Penn State is a hell of a team. But they're built to go and compete with and try to beat Ohio State. because Ohio State was the benchmark in the Big Ten. But now all of a sudden, there's Michigan,
Starting point is 00:09:29 and they play this bully style football that Penn State had no answer for a year ago. None. Not one answer for. That game wasn't even as close as the score indicated. At one point, people were like, well, it was a one-score game in the second quarter early in the third.
Starting point is 00:09:45 No, no, no. It wasn't close. It wasn't close. There was a kind of a nondescript turnover when Michigan was dominating and Penn State kind of scoops and scores, and all of a sudden it's like a one score game, and it's like, no, no, no, it wasn't that tight to begin with. They hammered them with the run game. So from a stylistic standpoint, I think it's tough for Penn State. I love what they've got,
Starting point is 00:10:08 Chop Robinson, namely up front to rush the quarterback, Abdul Carter. But again, Abdul Carter is not your traditional run stuffing linebacker. He's a run, athletic, long, NFL-style hybrid linebacker at the second level. Kalyn King, good player, built to kind of match up with an offense that wants to throw the ball, like Ohio State. That's why it's tough for Penn State. Not saying that they can't, not saying that they can't, because they've got a run game that can control the game, maybe get some big plays over the top with Drew Aller.
Starting point is 00:10:37 They're going to be better. And they've got Michigan in their home stadium, which is going to be a big feather in their cap. I think their best avenue, Penn States, would be hopeful. for a three-way tie. If I was a Penn State fan and I was like, how do we win the division and go play for a Big Ten title? I would hope for a three-way tie.
Starting point is 00:11:02 Because I just, because of how different Ohio State and Michigan are, it's going to be almost insurmountable to try to ask a team to beat both of those teams, again, because of the styles that you have to play to beat them. So where does that leave Penn State? Well, I've done the homework on this. And well, really, my guy, Steve, he and I, he's my brain, editorial brain. Steve and I were talking and he was like, well, let me look at the tiebreakers.
Starting point is 00:11:34 So he goes through the tiebreakers. And we get to basically the top four tiebreakers if, okay, let me give you this caveat. If Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State all finish 11 and 1 and their only losses are to each other. So circa 2008, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Texas. Remember that debacle? Here's what it comes down to. The top four tie-breaking models in the Big Ten would basically be a wash because it would all be about win percentage that you had versus like common opponents and everything.
Starting point is 00:12:04 But again, they would just lose to each other. So all of those basically, it just keeps moving and moving and moving until you get to the fifth tiebreaker. And the fifth tiebreaker says, whatever the record is of your non-deaf, divisional opponents. Now it gets interesting. I mean, like, come for the party right here. So let's look at their non-divisional opponents, shall we? Michigan has Nebraska, Minnesota, and Purdue.
Starting point is 00:12:31 Ohio State has Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Purdue. So two of them like, so it basically comes down to a difference for Michigan and Ohio State between two teams, Nebraska and Wisconsin. Penn State's non-division opponents, Illinois, Iowa, and Northwestern. and every Penn State fan is like, no, Northwestern, no. I think that the advantage in a three-way tie goes to Ohio State. If you're just basing this based off of Vegas win prediction for the three teams, obviously Minnesota and Purdue would be similar. So the difference being Nebraska and Wisconsin, Ohio State's three non-divisional opponents
Starting point is 00:13:09 have a Vegas prediction of 21 wins. Michigan's non-division opponents have a Vegas prediction of 18. wins and Penn State's non-division opponents have a Vegas win prediction of 17 and a half. So what I'm telling you is Penn State, you've got to immediately right now get on the Hawkeyes bandwagon and pray that Northwestern is not as bad as we think they are because those two things have to happen if you're going to win a three-team tie break. Oh, fun stuff there in the Big Ten. Okay, let's move on.
Starting point is 00:13:43 Let's get to the SEC. What's the biggest question in the SEC? The biggest question of the SEC is can anybody beat Georgia? They have been totally dominant in the SEC, totally dominant. Only one loss in the last couple of years. That was Alabama in the SEC championship game. And while they lose their quarterback, an offensive coordinator, to me, I'm unconcerned with that because they were never a quarterback-centric
Starting point is 00:14:07 or offensive-centric team. I said that last week when talking about why they were number one. This is a roster that's unbelievable. They're 17 and 1 in their last 18 games in the conference. Only one of those 17 wins was within 10 points in terms of a margin. And that was the win at Missouri last year by 4. Obviously the one loss, Alabama and the SEC championship game. I get it.
Starting point is 00:14:36 They've got a new QB and you could make an argument like, hey, Bennett was 29 and 3 as a starter. again, I'm not concerned. Whoever is the quarterback for Georgia is going to be fine. They've been vetted by Kirby Smart. I think all of that suggests that they're going to be a team that is on par with the level that they've played at the last couple of years. Seven straight top five recruiting classes and the only team with a top five scoring offense and scoring defense last year.
Starting point is 00:15:04 Plus, oh, by the way, the schedule is embarrassingly easy. very easy. Not a knock on the SEC, not a knock on Georgia. It just happened to play out this way. They were supposed to go to Norman and play Oklahoma. That game goes away because Oklahoma won't reciprocate next year, obviously being in the SEC and being a conference team against them. So that game goes away. They replace it with some cake game. And here we are. They are not going to be threatened at all. They're not going to be threatened until they go to Neeland, November, what is it, 11th? Which, by the way, that trip to Tennessee, November 11th, is going to be their third true road game of the season. That's it.
Starting point is 00:15:48 They go on the road to a true road game twice before November 11th. That is wild. By the way, that speaks to the brokenness of how schedules are built in college football. You're telling me, the back-to-back defending national champion has a schedule that you could argue is one of the easiest schedules in all of college football. That should not be how this shakes out, not their fault, not the SEC's fault. It just kind of happened that way. Oh, we got to change how schedules are made.
Starting point is 00:16:18 Biggest questions for me about Georgia. Complacency, distraction. We've seen the off-season issues. Will that become a distraction? We'll wait and see. Complacency. Will it set in? Doubt it.
Starting point is 00:16:31 Why will complacency not set in at Georgia? Competition. Well, you just told me, Joel, their schedule is easiest. It's not competition from opponents, competition from within. When you recruit at the level that Georgia has recruited, these guys have got to be so hungry and have such a sense of urgency on a day-to-day basis just to be a starter. That's how you fight complacency.
Starting point is 00:16:54 That's how Alabama has fought complacency. That's how USC fought complacency during their dynasty, and that's how Georgia is going to fight their complacency. So who are the teams that can potentially knock off Georgia and the SEC? I think it's only three, maybe. like two and a half. Sorry, Tennessee. Tennessee gets like a half a nod because they're in the own division. You've got to start with Alabama. They're being doubted. That's a scary place to be. Doubting Nick Saban is not how you make money in this industry. Nick Saban has recruited as well as
Starting point is 00:17:23 anybody. They've got nine five stars just from last year's class alone. Nine out of, what was it, 39. That's ridiculous. This is going to be a deep team that should be very good defensively. I think they're going to be a hungry team. I like the culture of that team. I think this is a team that could overachieve. The question mark for me is going to be about quarterback and wide receiver. They've got to replace Bryce Young, who single-handedly kept them in and won some games a year ago, and they've got a wide receiver core that I would say came up short a year ago. This is not a wide receiver core, I believe a lot in. And at times, what we've seen at the top and to the sport, and Nick Saban knows this, is that you've got to go out there and outscore an opponent.
Starting point is 00:18:12 The reason why they were so competitive and beat Georgia in the SEC championship game, and then they were in that game and kind of beating them in the national championship game was their ability to throw the ball. Remember Jameson Williams? He went down. That's when all of a sudden, oh, you can beat Georgia. Remember when Georgia was about to get beat by Ohio State, and then Marvin Harrison goes down. It's like, oh, okay, then Georgia beat you. You've got to have elite wide receivers in order to beat this Georgia team. You've got to have an elite pass. game. I don't know if Alabama is going to have that this year. That's just a question that you've got to keep in the back of your mind. Tennessee, they have the offense. They throw it well. They were the best
Starting point is 00:18:48 offense in college football. But remember how simple it is. Quarterback wide receiver centric. Downfield read routes. They're also replacing their quarterback, best wide receiver. That's difficult to do. If the Orange Bowl showed us anything, it's that they've got some potential. Joe Milton, Squirrel, best name of college football. They've got some potential on that side. Do I believe they can beat Georgia? Not really. Is it going to help that they're in their home stadium?
Starting point is 00:19:16 Yes, absolutely. Now we come to the team that I actually think I'm like, this is a team that actually could be Georgia. That's LSU. LSU has depth. They've now gone through a season and transitioned to Brian Kelly. they were number two in the transfer portal,
Starting point is 00:19:39 mostly on the defensive side. They've got their quarterback back, who's played a lot of football. They've got wide receivers on the outside. Remember, they threw it for, geez, 500 yards in that SEC championship game. And I get it, like, I get it. Georgia was up handily and LSU was just pitching it around the lot,
Starting point is 00:20:03 but they've got experience at quarterback. They've got experience at wide receiver. Their defense should be better. Brian Kelly is a very good football coach. That's a team I would be leery of. I think LSU's got some serious potential. I think they beat Florida State early. And then we see what this team can develop into as the season goes along.
Starting point is 00:20:23 That's my SEC questions. Now let's get into another conference. Let's talk about the PAC 12. That's right. The PAC 12. The PAC 12 will be the best they've been in over a decade. It is the best quarterback conference in the country. So is it?
Starting point is 00:20:44 Yes. Yes, it is. Look at the quarterbacks that they have. It's an embarrassment of riches, starting with Caleb Williams, who I think is a generational talent, by the way. You've also got a guy that I think is a true dark horse Heisman contender and Michael Pinnock's. I've covered Pinnock's game since Indiana.
Starting point is 00:21:03 in fact I saw him during the COVID year go into the shoe and play against a really good Ohio State team and threw it all over them. He's a good player, man. When you watch Pinnock's play, you see the rhythm he plays it with that Kaelin DeBore offense, the wide receivers that they have. Roma Dunze is phenomenal receiver. They're good on the offensive line. Bo Nix is back. 75th year in college football. That's a record.
Starting point is 00:21:33 Cam Rising. He's coming back from injury at Utah, and we've seen him will his team to back-to-back conference titles. By the way, you've also got guys like, so you list off those guys. You've also got Chador Sanders. I think Shador is a hell of a player.
Starting point is 00:21:52 Jaden DeLora, DJ Oonga Lele, Cameron Ward, Dante Moore. Like, it's, they are loaded at quarterback. and one of the things that I'm looking at is like, I don't know if you can get through this conference with only one loss. That's why it immediately goes to me like, I would have a lot of hope if I was any of these Pact 12 teams. I would be like, man, this is a year we've got a team that's capable of going to the college football playoff.
Starting point is 00:22:25 And yes, I would agree with that. I would agree with that. The problem is, is the way that they're. the PAC 12 constructs its schedule. It does not, it does not schedule for championships. It schedules for parity. So because of that,
Starting point is 00:22:45 think about what these teams are going to have to be doing. They're the deepest conference in the country. Five teams in my top 15, five. All right. Different styles. I already told you that was going to be difficult for Penn State. The different styles of the way that they're going to have to play in the Big Ten East. when you play in the PAC 12, you've got to play different styles.
Starting point is 00:23:04 You've got to line up against the physicality of the Oregon State beavers and the Utah Ute. you've got to line up and defend the passing game of USC and Washington. You've got the hybrid team in the middle of Oregon. You've got all these upstarts that on any given day, they can strike lightning in a bottle and beat you like Arizona did to UCLA. You've got Dante Moore, a total kind of crapshoot as a freshman. You've got Shador Sanders and a really talented skill group at Colorado.
Starting point is 00:23:31 could they beat you on any given Saturday? Absolutely. So this is going to be tough for any of these teams to get through unscathed, all right? Which means like you better hope that you can get through a schedule and win the PAC 12 with only one loss. Look at this though. Look at this.
Starting point is 00:23:47 It's going to be really hard. Six-year drought in the CFP. Does it end this year? Not sure. USC. Think about it this. They play nine straight consecutive power five teams, the longest run in the country by any team this season.
Starting point is 00:24:01 That's because they've got a random off week the week before the Pack 12 championship game. What are we doing? Nine consecutive weeks against Power 5 opponents. Consecutive. You know how difficult that's going to be to stay healthy? Is Caleb Williams going to be able to stay healthy throughout that? The offensive line? Will they be able to stay healthy?
Starting point is 00:24:22 The wide receiver core? The thin defensive line? Yikes. Washington, let's look at them. Brutal three-week stretch in November. no less. Like, come on, Pac-12, what are we doing? They're at USC.
Starting point is 00:24:35 They play Utah, and they're at Oregon State all before the Apple Cup. What? It's like, that's not scheduling for championships. That's scheduling for parity. Oregon has to go to both Washington and Utah in October. Then they play USC and Oregon State in November. That's going to be very tough. I would say that's the easiest road of any of them.
Starting point is 00:25:00 Utah, they have a tough non-conference. Remember, they've got to play Florida. Then they have at USC in the Coliseum. Then they have a four-week stretch of at USC against Oregon at home, ASU at home with Kenny Dillingham as their new head coach, and then at Washington. What? Oregon State.
Starting point is 00:25:22 Them in Oregon have the easiest schedule. Oregon State, Utah at home in September. Then they finish with Washington, then a road game at Oregon. I mean, who's getting through that? I don't know. I want to say, and I've told I was on Cowherd a couple weeks ago, and I said, like, I think USC could go to the playoff. USC and Washington are my favorites in the conference.
Starting point is 00:25:48 That USC nine straight weeks against Power 5 teams, that's going to be so difficult. Someone's got to go through that with only one loss. By the way, then they've got a rematch with, one of those teams that they just played likely out of a November matchup in the Pac-12 championship game. It's going to be very difficult. Do I hope we get some Pac-12 representation?
Starting point is 00:26:11 Yes. By the way, it could be the last year of the Pac-12. We shall see. Let's move on. All right. Let's move on. Let's see. Let's talk about some Big 12 topics here.
Starting point is 00:26:24 Is this finally the year that Texas wins the big 12? Do you know why I'm pausing right now? Because I feel like we're breaking the rules. The rules have been we're not talking about Texas unless they do something. That's the rules. I don't know what to tell you. And we're breaking the rules because the question is about Texas. Why is the question about Texas?
Starting point is 00:26:53 They got the best roster in the Big 12. The question is about Texas because they're the best team in the Big 12. stop me if you've heard that before in the last decade. I'm starting to get fed up with Texas before the season. And I like Sark. I like Quinn Ewers. I like this team. Ten starters back on offense should be dynamic in that respect.
Starting point is 00:27:19 They were a pretty good defense last year. They just didn't win tight ball games. If they can fix that, which they should, through experience, making those plays when they need to, they'll land in the Big 12 championship game. Best rosters usually win championship games. They should win the Big 12 championship. They should.
Starting point is 00:27:38 Their roster suggests that they're the best team in the conference and that they should compete for a playoff spot. But guess what? They're still Texas. They're still Texas. I don't. And by the way, I've been a bit of a cheerleader for Texas. And that's why I'm so upset
Starting point is 00:27:55 even before they play a game. like perpetually underachieving this team. And this is a team that will go through a schedule, which they should be able to manage, obviously the most difficult one being at Tuscaloosa. The problem is that there are enough teams in the Big 12 that are just like tough, tough outs. Kansas State comes to mind.
Starting point is 00:28:21 Texas Tech comes to mind. TCU comes to mind. You've got the rivalry against Oklahoma. they're the next most talented team. Like those are, those are not easy games. And Texas has perpetually played down to its level of competition. I do think it's maybe the most unpredictable conference because Texas continues to play down to their competition.
Starting point is 00:28:45 You've got to win close games in the Big 12. It's what OU and Texas could not do a year ago. It's what TCU could do. TCU was phenomenal in close games, phenomenal. With Max Duggan, Gara Riley, Quentin Johnston, and Kendry Miller. That's what Sonny Dykes and the Horn Frogs majored in last year was winning tight football games. That's what Texas failed at. It's what Oklahoma failed at. If that can turn, then we're going to see them bounce back and be very competitive. The defense quietly played
Starting point is 00:29:13 really well last year. If that continues, then they should be able to win some of those close games. But again, difficulty because of the balance of the conference. I think the sneakiest the sneakiest team in the Big 12, Kansas State. Just watch out for Kansas State. I love their O-line. I really like Will Howard. And defensively, they are just kind of like tough as nails. Tough as nails.
Starting point is 00:29:35 I like what they do at Kansas State. All right, let's move on to the ACC. The ACC, the question for me is, am I buying the Florida State hype? That's the question. Because there's a lot of hype out there about Florida State. And listen, I get it. and they're likely going to win a lot of games this season.
Starting point is 00:29:56 They've got a talented roster. They did really well in the transfer portal. They've recruited well. And an ACC that isn't particularly strong top to bottom, are they ready? Yeah. Yeah, they're ready. The problem is that you've got to be ready to beat Clemson. Because Clemson runs the conference.
Starting point is 00:30:14 Have they done enough to overtake Clemson? I'm not sure. I'm not sure. They didn't last year when they had them at home. Why should we be so quick? to just say like, hey, Florida State. I love Florida State. I can like them.
Starting point is 00:30:31 They're in my top 10, but I can accurately say they aren't to the level of even two of their first four opponents, one of them being a conference opponent in Clemson, that game at Clemson. Last year, Clemson had what they consider to be a bad year.
Starting point is 00:30:48 They still won 11 games, including going 9 and 0 in the ACC, 9 and 0. They beat Florida State, on the road in Tallahassee, won the ACC, and Florida State had a great year, won 10 games, and still lost three in the conference when the season was still, like, in suspense, if you will.
Starting point is 00:31:10 Remember their win streak? Florida State's win streak? Happened late, like the last six. Those teams were not good. You know how I know that? Blowout win against Georgia Tech, five and seven. Miami, five and seven. Syracuse, seven and six, but they lost six of their last seven.
Starting point is 00:31:31 Louisiana Lafayette, they were sub 500. And they had one score wins over Florida, sub 500 team, six and seven, and a sub 500 Oklahoma, six and seven to finish. By the way, that Oklahoma game, that was a one score game late. One score win over Oklahoma. Oklahoma hasn't been sub 500 since John Blake. And you want me to annoy Florida State because they beat the, worst Oklahoma team since John Blake?
Starting point is 00:32:01 I can't do that. I can't do that. Not with Clemson still there. Not with Clemson returning their quarterback and Clay Clubnik. Not with Clemson getting better on defense. Not with Will Shipley still being there. Not with the game being in Clemson, in particular in the first month of the season.
Starting point is 00:32:16 And not with Garrett Riley being the offensive coordinator at Clemson. This is the biggest move that nobody is talking about in college football. Name the last time, and I said this last week on the top 25 podcast. Name the last time that a Riley has had a poor quarterback season. Yeah, exactly. We're all waiting because it has not happened. It has not happened. Garrett Riley did a sensational job with Max Duggan last year,
Starting point is 00:32:43 who wasn't even the starter to begin the year with TCU. When they've got a run game and a guy like Kendry Miller like he had at TCU and now he's going to have Will Shipley, he can be dynamic in the run game and the screen game. They're going to be able to throw the ball. Clubnik is a really good player, a really good player, probably should have been playing the majority of the time last year. This is why Clemson is going to run the ACC. This is why I have them rated ahead of Florida State, and this is why it's not time for the Seminoles yet. I think the Seminoles are going to be a really good team.
Starting point is 00:33:14 I've got them in the top 10, so this is not about me hating on Florida State. This is me accurately looking at the LSU matchup, which does not favor Florida State and the Clemson matchup, which does not favor Florida State. And I can accurately say Florida State is going to be. going to be two and two in their first four games. Now, they may go on to win 10 games, but it's not going to be a team that really competes for an ACC title. But here is where it gets interesting. ACC doing away with divisions so they could get a rematch against Clemson. And then it
Starting point is 00:33:43 comes down to health, namely quarterback, or your quarterback's healthy or your best players healthy. That's going to be a fascinating deal. Clemson's roster is still better than that roster at Florida State, in particular when you look at the blue chip ratio, Clemson still got the nod. So buying the Florida State hype, that's a no. Thank you for listening. Remember, follow us on all the social medias. And again, remember to subscribe to the YouTube channel, the Joel Clad show on YouTube. Go ahead and subscribe to that.
Starting point is 00:34:16 And you'll have some exclusive content during the show as well when you subscribe there. And you'll get that through YouTube. Lots, lots still to get into as we barrel. closer to the college football season. We're going to have a couple of shows next week, including trying to get ready for week zero, as we're going to start to have some games. I would love to hear from you,
Starting point is 00:34:37 so let's open up the mailbag, okay? Let's get the mailbag going early in the year. The Joel Clats show, Mailbag at gmail.com. Send us your emails, and I'll get to those questions. By the way, they can be about anything. They can be about college football. They can be about life, anything you want. By the way, I officiated a wedding this summer.
Starting point is 00:34:55 True story. to a couple, Kat got married, Kat, our producer, Kat Donnelly, wonderful, beautiful wedding. Congratulations to you. That was phenomenal this summer. I also went to another wedding where I had to officiate the wedding. That's right. It got all certified online, did it all up. It was beautiful. Did I do a good job? I'm not sure. It wasn't on video, so we'll never know. That's this edition of the Joel Class show. Make sure to tune in next week. Next episode will be on Monday.

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