The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Joel Klatt’s CFP Bracket Prediction + Ohio St-Penn St, Oregon-Michigan & more Week 10 Picks

Episode Date: October 31, 2024

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt makes his picks for the biggest games of the weekend before making his latest College Football Playoff bracket prediction as we head into November football. Klatt begins by breaking down the FOX Big Noon Saturday Top-5 matchup between Ohio State and Penn State. Klatt then makes his picks for two other Big Ten matchups as #1 Oregon travels to the Big House to face a Michigan team looking to turn their season around and 8-0 Indiana’s trip to Michigan State. He also makes picks in the SEC games of the week between #2 Georgia and Florida and #10 Texas A&M at South Carolina – and lays out why one of those favorites needs to be on upset alert. He also hits on the Top-20 ACC clash between unbeaten Pitt and #20 SMU. Then, Klatt predicts what the College Football Playoff Bracket will look like at the end of the season, breaking down how he sees the rest of the regular season unfolding. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There is no way in the world. You can look at this college football season, look at these projections, and think to yourself, man, I'm so pissed that we expanded the playoff. It's like, that's not a thing. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher.

Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Hey, welcome into the program. This is the Joel Klatt show. I am Joel Klatt, And this show is brought to you by Hampton by Hilton. We thank them for their support.

As always, we have got a packed show for you today. So with picks and previews, as you know, we had been on a bit of a heater until last week. We went one and four. So before we get into the picks, let's all take a deep breath and realize that we're still 63%. We're still 30 and 18 against the spread. And you've got to get up, you've got to buckle up

because we've got some good picks coming at you here today. Now, wherever you're listening to this show, wherever you get your podcast, make sure to rate and review us, please. Leave us a review. It always help us in terms of the way that we are evaluating and looking at our show. If you're watching on YouTube, make sure to subscribe, as well as hit that notification button so that you know exactly when new things come out. And yes, new things are going to be coming out that are not actually just audio podcast,

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You can follow us and get all of our content, obviously on social media during the course of the week. So pick some preview time it is, and I could not be more excited about the game that we have got. So Big Noon kickoff is headed to Penn State. Big noon. Saturday is headed to Penn State. Gus, Jenny and I have the monster this weekend as Ryan Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes travel to take on the undefeated Penn State, Nittany Lions and James Franklin. To say that these two coaches need this win is an understatement. Both of these coaches need this win. Ryan Day and James Franklin. I think that both of these coaches are under an immense amount of pressure because a loss in this game is just going to send them in the spiral of the narrative. that their fan base likes to perpetuate, which is that each of them can't win the big game.

So here we have a top five matchup. This is where Franklin has struggled with Penn State. And candidly, this is where Ryan Day has fallen a bit short for Ohio State at times. Okay, so this idea that you're just going to be dominant in top five matchups, I don't think is founded in realism. I don't think it's realistic. And I think that the narratives perpetuated about some of these guys that get into these matchups and then maybe don't win over 50% or aren't over 500 in these like, oh, they can't

win the big game. That's not necessarily the case. The fact that they're constantly in these games, I think is a testament to how good of a coach they are. And that is the same for James Franklin as well as Ryan Day. Now, as we get into the game, we don't know exactly who's going to play quarterback for Penn State. That's still a bit up in the air. So Drew Aller left that Wisconsin game last week, and he was banged up with a lower body injury, and Bo Perbula came into that game and played really well. Prebula stepped in, and he's a guy that is not, he's not a novice on the field by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, during the course of this season, Andy Kodalnicki, their offensive coordinator, whether it's between, I would say, three to eight times per game, is going

to put Perbula in the game. Now, he's not sitting back there just running the offense, orchestrating the passing game. He comes in to serve a specific role, generally speaking, when Alar is healthy, and that role is to provide some level of spark and conflict in the run game. And he's been able to do that very well. Now, in the second half against Wisconsin, in a game that I'll face, let's face it, Penn State was struggling in just a little bit. Perbula came in and played really well with the entire offense at his disposal. And I think that it at least gives credence to the thought that Bo Perbula could be a better option this week against Ohio State. More on that in a little bit.

Will be a game time decision. James Franklin should absolutely not announce the starter because these two guys are so different in their approach that style of quarterback that Drew Aller is and the style of quarterback that Bo Perbula is is vastly different. And so you don't want to name a starter and you don't want even to allude to who's going to play because the game plan defensively for Jim Knowles and the defense for Ohio State is going to look different based on the guy that ends up starting. So absolutely drag it out. This is exactly what he should be doing. Now on the flip side, the quarterback for Ohio State, Will Howard,

I think it's a great story this week because here's a guy that grew up in Pennsylvania and desperately wanted to play at Penn State his entire life. Like, I love that storyline. In a lot of it reflects my own career path. I desperately wanted to play at Colorado State. Never got recruited by Colorado State. So when I got to play them once I was at the University of Colorado, I was like, man, there's nothing I want more than to beat that team. Three and O, by the way.

But don't worry about it. It's not like I still remember it into my 40s, but whatever. That's all good. Will Howard is returning home, though. And now this is a game that he will clearly remember because, again, grows up in Pennsylvania and wants to play at Penn State doesn't get the chance. They didn't feel like he was good enough to be recruited. They're recruiting at the top end and that's totally their prerogative.

But as a player, that is a highly motivating thing. Now, I will tell you, being motivated as a quarterback, you know what that gets you? Nothing. It gets you nothing. You've got to play incredibly well in terms of the details of the system, the rhythm of the system, the connectivity to the system, and if he's able to do that, then they should play well. The biggest question for me in this game, though,

is still going to be the Ohio State offensive line, even more so than the quarterback question marks for Penn State. The offensive line issues for Ohio State are real. We saw that come to fruition a week ago against Nebraska. They had their starting left tackle, Josh Simmons, who was playing, I think at least top two round, draft pick style football, level football. He goes down against Oregon, and ever since he went down,

they just have not been right in the run game. It's been a problem. They tried to go with Zen Mahalski at left tackle and leave Donovan Jackson a natural guard at his spot. He's an all-American. They tried to leave him at guard, left guard. It didn't work. Zin Mahalski did not play very well.

I understand that he's a good program player, but it did not work against Nebraska. They couldn't protect very well and they couldn't run the football. He goes down and then all of a sudden Luke Montgomery comes in, which was, to be honest, a huge surprise to me. I did not expect Luke Montgomery to go in the game at guard. And Donovan Jackson bumped out. The reason I did not expect Luke Montgomery is because Austin Saraveld

had started at left guard for an injured Donovan Jackson earlier in the year. Now, we're getting in the weeds here with the offensive line, but again, it speaks to the question marks at that group. What in the world is Ohio State going to get out of the five guys up front? That is a major question. I don't even think they know what they're going to get. And now they're going to have to deal with the crowd noise at Happy Valley. They're going to have to deal with the pass rush and that athletic, aggressive, defensive front. So advantage Penn State when it comes to that.

And I think that it's actually going to put a lot of pressure, not just in terms of what defense can put on Will Howard, but also just what he has to put on himself. I believe that Ohio State is going to have to throw the football early in this game to help protect the offensive line. Normally you talk about let's run the football in order to throw the football later. I think it's going to be opposite for Penn State and Ohio State more specifically. For Ohio State, I looked at last year's game. I'm watching that film and you know what Ohio State did? They leaned in to Marvin Harrison. He touched the ball three, four, five times early in the first couple of possessions. And they did that because I don't feel like they felt real comfortable blocking Chop

Robinson and Abdul Carter. Now they've got Abdul Carter and a game time decision denied Dennis Sutton. What is the game plan going to look like depending on those five guys up front? And for me, I do think that it's going to have to be kind of a Will Howard game early, a Jeremiah Smith game early, and a Mecca, Abuka game early. They're going to have to throw the football because I just, I don't see a scenario where they're able to just go. in there and run the ball dominantly. They have not done it in the last six quarters. They ran the football for 2.1 yards per carry last week against Nebraska. And they only threw the ball four times to Jeremiah Smith. That has to be rectified.

Okay. If you look at the Oregon game and a matchup style game, which this is a matchup style game, Smith got, what is it, 10 targets? Well, that's going to have to repeat itself against Penn State in particular on the road. Think of the game two years ago in Happy Valley when Ohio State went in there. How did they win that game? J.T. Tuie Molo, I went absolutely. crazy on the defensive side, and Marvin Harrison was the threat offensively. So I think that the wide receivers are going to have to really step up, and they're going to have to throw the football quite effectively against this Penn State defense. That leads us to the Penn State offense.

Obviously, the question is at quarterback, and that's going to affect the style with which they're trying to attack the Ohio State defense. Now, based on the way that Ohio State played Nebraska after the loss to Oregon, you saw a lot more aggressive defense. You saw a lot more blitzing, stunts, man-to-man coverage, single coverage on the outside. I firmly believe that Probula gives you a better option against that style of defense. The reason is, is because in-man coverage, the player that can get lost in man coverage is the quarterback, unless you're spying them. And if you just spy him with one defender, it's not great leverage to only spy with one defender. It's very easy for a

quarterback in particular of his athletic capability, Probula's, to run away from that defender, unless it's maybe like Caleb Downs that's coming in and spying. But if you run man, there's a good chance that the quarterback's going to have the ability to create explosive plays with his legs. And that's exactly what Penn State would love to do with an athletic quarterback and Pubula that really goes in now to create explosive plays with his legs. This is a fascinating matchup.

And everything right now pointing me to be like, Penn State is an underdog in this game, but man, this feels like a matchup that's starting to favor them. Because of the injuries of the offensive line and because Bo Probula and his skill set, I think is better suited to face a defense that clearly now wants to be aggressive and run man coverage. Going to be a great game.

I cannot wait. Big noon kickoff is going to be there. We will be there. Everyone's going to be there. Every pregame show is going to be there. apparently both presidential candidates are going to be there. So I might have to sleep in the booth because once those, you know, the dignitaries come out, like you can't move around.

Everyone's just like, freeze until they leave. So good chance I'm not catching a flight after the game, which is fine because the game should be incredible and I can't wait for it. Let's move on another monster in the Big Ten. Oregon at Michigan. And obviously when we were looking at this game, before the season, it seemed like it was going to be bigger than what it is now. I think we all anticipated Oregon getting to this game as at least a top four team in the

country, and they, lo and behold, get here as the number one team in the country. Michigan, on the other hand, has stumbled and kind of bumbled their way to a point where at least they're starting to gain some confidence after a win last week against their in-state rival, Michigan State. If we're just focusing on Oregon here for a moment, though, this team has not let up after getting the momentum to their season after what I would consider early struggles. Let's not forget now.

They've got a transfer quarterback that they're trying to get up to speed early in the season. That might be an excuse, but it's real. When talking with Dan Lannning in the offseason, he talked about how long it took for Bo Nix to feel comfortable and how he didn't feel like Bo really hit his stride until really late in that first season and really into his second season. Well, Dylan Gabriel comes in now as the same transfer quarterback. And here's what I've seen.

I saw a quarterback that early in the season wasn't playing well and the offensive line wasn't playing well. And they weren't really connected as an offense. And there wasn't much rhythm to it. And it's like you understand that they're really talented players, but something was off. And that something being off was the rhythm of the. offense. And now as Gabriel has developed in this system, as the offensive line has become better,

as these wide receivers have also developed in this system, a couple of them transfers. Everybody's jelling now. And what you're getting from Oregon, and I touched on this earlier in the week, is you're getting a better version of Oregon every single week. And now they're playing their best football. You know, they essentially ended the games at halftime against Purdue and Illinois. Gabriel is playing great. The offensive line, they've only given up, you know, what, three sacks in the last six games, and that was something that we had talked about them struggling with early in the season. Remember that Idaho game? Remember the Boise State game and all of us? I was even like kind of panicking like, man, this Oregon team that doesn't,

it just doesn't look right. Well, guess what? It looks right now. It looks right now. I think that this Oregon team is easily right now the best team of the country. They have shown the balance and the most growth. Everybody else has shown some level of weakness. And this team, while showing some level of weakness early, has proven that they could get over that and develop through it. So kudos to them and kudos to Dan Langing. And now they're going to face a Michigan team. Then I know it feels like they're going to get some confidence, but they've been bouncing around and bouncing around on the quarterback issue. They felt like they landed on Jack Tuttle. Jack Tuttle gets injured again. And now he's got to medically retire.

really quickly on Jack Tuttle. Listen, Jack Tuttle was a highly recruited high school quarterback. In fact, he played high school football right here in Southern California with a guy named Chris Olave. And the only reason Chris Olave got to Ohio State is because Ryan Day, who was recruiting Jack Tuttle at the time years and years and years ago, looked out and said, wait, who's that wide receiver? And it was Chris Olave. He became a buck guy. He blocked that punt in his first Ohio State Michigan game. And then the rest is history. And now he's clearly a great player in the NFL. But it just goes to show you that it's a, It's like sometimes the path doesn't pan out for some of these players that are highly recruited

players. Jack Tuttle was one of those. And he has had a highly frustrating college career. And now he's going to hang it up and medically retire. And I just have to say like, Jack, I feel for you, man, I wish you the absolute best in the future. And all of the lessons that you learned of perseverance and dedication to your craft in college football are going to pay huge dividends for you down the stretch. So now that he's, retired. Now it's back to Davis Warren, who was the opening day starter in somewhat of a surprising

fashion. So they're back to kind of the original mindset of Davis Warren at quarterback, Alex Orgy coming in as the Bo Probula kind of change of pace quarterback in order to run the football. I still have just major questions

about whether Michigan can move the ball. They they they just don't look right. There's way too many times when they're getting no gain, taking a loss, and in obvious passing situations. They don't have J.J. McCarthy. They don't have the wide receivers from last year.

And I'm looking at this and it's like, can they move the ball in general? I think that they, along with Michigan State, are fortunate. Big Ten's not going to take any action. after that kind of that ruckus at the end of the Michigan State Michigan game, which I'm in favor of. I didn't think it rose to the level that it should be actionable from the Big Ten. And you look up and this Michigan team is going to face a great defense, a great offense. They can't throw the football.

It's like Colston, Loveland, or bus in the passing game. Michigan's wide receiver group right now, the third fewest yards in the country. They're only ahead of Army and Navy. and they're behind as a wide receiver group, they're behind Iowa and Air Force. Like the production is just not there for Michigan. On the offensive side, you cannot just be a running team and beat Oregon.

You can't do it. Michigan defensively has been without All-American Corner Will Johnson for the last two games. Sharon's comments didn't feel like ultra-optimistic that he would be back, and now you're going to face Ted, Tess Johnson, Evan Stewart, Toshan Holden. Oregon's favored by 15 and a half for a reason, folks,

and they're getting better and better and better every single week. And look at all these question marks for Michigan. I just don't know if Michigan can score enough in this game to cover the 15 and a half. I like Oregon winning this one, and I think this is generous. I like Oregon winning this one 3417. That's a cover. So give me Oregon.

And I know Oregon fans, you've been saying like, no, Joel, you've been picking against us this whole time against the spread. Stay picking against us. I can't. You're playing too well. So now I'm going to ride with Oregon. I'm going to give the points and I'm going 3417 ducks in a win and they're covering the 15 and a half. I'm sorry, duck fans. I know I know exactly what you're going to say. But listen, I can't ignore my own eyes of what I'm seeing from you guys every single week, better and better and better. Every great team gets better every single week and plays their

best football at the end of the season. And right now, if you were to categorize which team in the country is that, it's Oregon. It's Oregon. Okay, let's move on Indiana with a massive game. Now, on the road against Michigan State, Indiana is going to be favored by seven and a half. The Hoosiers took care of business last week against Washington, right? Even without Curtis Rourke. Tavion Jackson came in, he filled in and did nice. The defense played a big part in that, that one they had an early pick six. Hoosiers Rowland. Signetti, he's optimistic that Curtis Rourke can come back after that thumb procedure post-Nebraska game, and maybe he can come back and be in the lineup now on the road against Michigan State. This Michigan State team, just so you know,

like, this is a team that is improving under Jonathan Smith. A couple of weeks ago, they dismantled Iowa, beat them by double digits. I think that the only thing, and they played Michigan pretty well in that game. Jonathan Smith is a hell of a football coach. That Oregon State program is not easy to succeed at, and he succeeded at Oregon State. He will work at Michigan State. Spartan fans hear me say that he will work and you're seeing that you're seeing him go through some of the bumps of a coach in his first year playing a young quarterback who's turned the football over quite a bit and those mistakes hopefully will be developed through and learned from and when those mistakes start to turn to made plays Michigan state will be dangerous the turnovers from the

quarterback position right now are what's really hindering the Spartans and unfortunately this is not a team that you can turn the ball over against. They're too sound. Indiana's defense is too sound. The offense is too sound. And Signetti has got them playing really well. Indiana is the number two scoring offense in the country. They have yet to trail this season. They've won every game by at least 14 points this year. And a win for Indiana would make them 9 and 0 for the first time in school history. I think Indiana wins the game here. I think Indiana wins the game by about 10 or more. That's what they've done every single week. It doesn't matter if it's been Nebraska at home or Washington at home, and now they go on the road.

I like them winning by 10, 31, 21, and Michigan State plays pretty well. Maybe there's a mistake here or there. But the Hoosiers get the win and they cover the seven and a half. And Indiana remains undefeated. And then they would host Michigan the following week. All right, big one there, the world's largest cocktail party, Florida at Georgia. I like in this game the idea that both of these teams are coming off a buy, and what we have not talked about is the fact that Florida gets better and better every week.

You know, we kind of, at least on this program, dismissed Florida early in the season. In part because of the schedule and how difficult it was, but in part because I didn't think that they were playing really that well. and Bill Napier has done a good job. Billy Napier's got this team playing incredibly well. And I know that sounds crazy to say. Now, this is the first time that we've seen Georgia since that went over Texas. Florida's coming off a buy as well, quietly, just a lot better. They've won three of their last four, and their only loss in their last four was that overtime loss to Tennessee. Graham Mertz is out for the season, and so it's now going to be DJ Lagway, and he's been pretty good.

Five-star true freshman. He's been exciting. Think about this. He throws the ball really well down the field. He averaged 37 yards per completion in their last game against Kentucky. 37 yards per completion. He completed just seven passes for 259 yards. Five of his seven completions went for at least 40 yards. This guy is a big play waiting to happen. And that's something that Georgia will have to contend with. There's no doubt. I can't wait to see how this Georgia defense plays because they played great against Texas. I think the other interesting part about this is does Carson Beck start to play better football? Carson Beck has not played very well. Even in the win over Texas, it wasn't because Carson Beck was great. It was because the defense was great and gave him short field after short field after short field in building that 23-0 lead.

Beck has thrown eight picks in his last four games, already more than he had all last season. And so you could say it's kind of a Georgia defense deal. And they're going to have to go out there and play well, which they probably should. One concern for Florida is they have not defended the run all that well, although you could say Georgia has not really run the football all that consistently, although I do think that they run the ball better than they throw the ball.

They need help on the outside. I think that the one Achilles heel that Georgia has is that they don't have a great passing game. Too many drop passes, even when Beck is on, a lot of drop passes in that wide receiver group, and that leads him to press. And when he presses, he turns the ball over and that's how you get the eight picks in the last four games. Georgia's favored by 16 and a half. I like Florida to cover that. I think Florida's playing better than people realize. I think that Georgia could be overlooking Florida possibly, possibly. I've got a Georgia win, 31, 17. and I like Florida to cover the 16 and a half.

We'll see if they do. We'll see if they do. There's something about that Florida team. They just play better and better. And as a true freshman gets more experience and more experience, you just can assume that he's going to start playing better as well. A&M at South Carolina, A&M after that huge win over LSU

is now going to go on the road to South Carolina. Now, Mike Elko has done a hell of a job. and I love this sound bite, just throwing haymakers at Jimbo Fisher. I'm here for it. However, South Carolina, like Florida, is quietly a lot better than people realize. All right, this is not going to be an easy game for Texas A&M, and that is reflected in the line. A&M is only favored by two and a half.

So Vegas is with me on this here. They're with me. It's a night game in Williams-Bry Stadium. A&M coming off of that emotional home win in a game in which they feel like that puts them in the driver's seat in the SEC. They're undefeated. They're in first place. And all anyone's going to do this week is tell them how great they are. And guess what?

They've got a quarterback issue and they're going to a South Carolina team that has, yes, lost three games, but they're all to good teams. LSU, Ole Miss, and Alabama, two of those three were really close. They lost by three to LSU in a game where they missed that field goal as time expired. could have sent the game into overtime. And then they lost by two to Alabama or they missed a two-point conversion. That game could have gone to overtime. So South Carolina and Beamer, like, Beamer Ball is alive at South Carolina. They're at home.

I do think this is not a trap, but this is a game where it's a let-down game for Texas A&M. After last week's win over LSU, this is a let-down spot for Texas A&M. Elko has not indicated who's going to start at quarterback, whether it's going to be Marcel Reed or Connor Wigman. I don't think it's going to be Wigman. He struggled two weeks ago. They won. He struggled again.

They had to replace him. I don't think that they go back to him, in particular after the infusion of energy that Reed had into that offense and that building and for that fan base. I think that it's going to be Reed. And now all of a sudden South Carolina quarterback, Lenora Sellers, is a guy that I really like. He's a threat with his legs. He can help navigate the pressure from that A&M defensive line. and South Carolina can rush the quarterback.

So now you've got a guy that I don't know how well he throws the ball down the field. I know he's a threat with his legs, but now you've got these pass rushers, Kyle Kinnard. He's tied for the lead in the SEC with eight and a half sacks. He's also got three-fours fumbles. Dylan Stewart, the freshman, he's got four and a half sacks himself. So South Carolina can put some pressure on the quarterback, and this is a quarterback position that is in some flux. Like, guys, I know this is crazy, but South Carolina has the number three rush defense in the SEC.

They're also third in the SEC and takeaways was 16. They just had four against Oklahoma. I didn't have success with the Navy pick here, but I've got South Carolina in this game. I think that this is a game that is a stumbling block game for A&M. South Carolina is playing better. I like their defense. South Carolina is getting two and a half.

I'm taking the points, and I've got a Gamecock win outright, 28, 24. Beamer Ball succeeds at night at home. All right, Pitt at SMU, ranked matchup in the ACC. This is a night game. This is a huge win in the ACC race. Unbeaten Pitt takes on 7 and 1 SMU. Only loss is to BYU.

This is a night game in Dallas. Bull starting quarterbacks right now, questionable in this game. SMU's Kevin Jennings took a low hit in last week's game against Duke. He did not return. If he can't go, though, remember SMU has the luxury that their opening day starter this year, Preston Stone is their backup. So he's a guy that they, I feel like, are going to have confidence.

And he started 12 games last year. Pitt could be without their starting quarterback, Eli Holstein. Now, he left the game against Syracuse with what appeared to be like an eye issue, face issue. It's pretty interesting. Now, Pat Narduzzi has tried to minimize this, but bottom line is blackup, Nate Yarnel, he started a few games last year. We'll see if he has to go.

again, kind of a weird, like, eye issue that they've got going on there with Eli, their quarterback. I'm looking at this and I'm looking at SMU. I'm looking at Pitt. And I'm looking at this turnover margin from last week. And it's wild. Pitt was a plus five and that wild game was Syracuse. SMU was a minus six and still one. That has to even out, right?

Like you're not going to get that level of difference in the turnover margin. And if it's an evenly played game, SMU, I think, is the better team here. SMU is a damn good football team. And I know Pitt has done a really nice job, but they are surviving in these one possession games, time after time, after time. They get all those turnovers. They get all those pick sixes, the gifts from Kyle McCord. I think that this game evens out.

I like SMU at home. I think SMU wins the game. They're favored by seven and a half. I think that they win by 10. They're going to cover the seven and a half. I like them with the quarterback issues, maybe a low scoring game like 24, 14 right in there. So I've got Smoo winning this game and they keep themselves alive in that

ACC race. All right, here's what I wanted to do now is after we've got some picks and previews, here's what I want to do. As we enter November, every single month, we've done a projected college football playoff. and so I wanted to do that again here today. I love this exercise, and you start to project what we're going to see in November, and you start to kind of have the debates and arguments about which teams might be on the bubble in a college football playoff.

So before we get into what I would consider to be my November projection for the college football playoff, let's take a look back at what I had in October. So this was my second version, and remember we had Texas at number one. We had Ohio State at number two. We had Clemson out of the ACC at three, Kansas State at four. We had at five, Alabama. Remember, they had just beaten Georgia. Six was Oregon.

They had struggled early, but we're just starting to get it going. Seven was Georgia. Eight was Tennessee, nine Penn State, 10 USC. They're clearly going to be out. 11 was LSU and 12 was Boise State. Okay, so that's what we had leading into October. Now let's go to our new projected bracket as we enter into November. And the first thing that I wanted to do is just kind of shake out the championship games in these conferences, okay?

And the Big Ten, I'm going to have Oregon over Ohio State with those issues on the offensive line. I've got Oregon over Ohio State. And the SEC, I've got Georgia over Texas in a rematch, both of those. And the ACC, I've got Clemson over Miami. And in the Big 12, I've got BYU over Kansas State. So if that's the case, okay, if that's the case, I've got number one, Oregon. They would still be undefeated and they would still be number one. Two would be Georgia with the one loss to Alabama, but then coming back and beating Texas twice.

The only reason they wouldn't be number one is that Oregon would be undefeated. They would be number two. Clemson is still my ACC champ. That's going to remain the same. I've got them at number three. And I'm just starting to really believe in this BYU team. This BYU team smells and feels a lot like two years ago, the TCU team, a similar rugged and competitive style quarterback, a veteran defense,

some transfers in the right areas, winning games in all sorts of fashions, whether it's getting turnovers, winning with special teams, winning with offense, winning with defense. They've done it every single different way. And I just think BYU is somewhat of a team of destiny. And I think that BYU comes out of the Big 12, and they would get the number four seed. Okay, so then that leaves kind of those conference losers,

at least in the Big Ten and in the SEC. So here's how I think it will play out. If Ohio State can get to that game against Oregon and their only two losses would be to Oregon, I think they would be the five seed. Remember, that would mean that they would go on the road and win against Penn State. That would mean that they would host Indiana and get that win.

So with those marquee wins and then just like, let's say a close loss in a neutral against Oregon, I think they would get the five. seat. Texas would get the sixth seed in a loss in the SEC championship game. They just wouldn't have those monster style games like the Penn State on the road. Now, maybe A&M is that style, but remember, I've got A&M losing to South Carolina, which loses some of the luster of that win if Texas were able to beat A&M to end the season. So that's where I landed on the five and six matchup. Those could be flipped, certainly. But if Oregon's number one and Ohio State's only two

losses are to Oregon, they would be five. And then Texas with their two losses to Georgia would be number six. That leaves now, like, where are we going? I've got a couple of teams now that I think are likely to be 11 and 1. And I'm going to start with Penn State. I think Penn State is likely to be 11 and 1, and they're going to be number 7 in my bracket. So, again, even if they were to lose this weekend and they were to win out, I think Penn State at 11 and 1 with what they have done, and the way that they play and what they've done over the last few years,

I think they would get that seven seed. Then Notre Dame would get the eight seed. So Notre Dame as an 11 and one team, only loss I get it to Northern Illinois. And remember, this is part of the reason why Penn State would be seven in Notre Dame, eight is that the losses would just be so dramatically different, both at home, one to Northern Illinois,

the other two Ohio State. Right? So in theory, that's an easy pick of Penn State. over Notre Dame, both 11 and 1s. And then we get into these teams that I think are probably 10 and 2. Probably 10 and 2. And I go number 9, Tennessee. I've got Tennessee at 9.

And the reason they're at 9 is because I've got Bama at 10, and they would have the win over Bama. So Tennessee at 9, Bama at 10. That's how you land there. Remember, Bama has the win over Georgia. And in this case, I would have them winning at night at LSU. So they're in. They're absolutely in. You could claim that they would be a bit of a bubble team right there, and they might be. But at this point, you're coming down to kind of like 10, 11, 12, and you're debating between a lot of different teams.

So let's pause and just bring up like, who are we debating between now? Because now we're getting to the bubble spot. We still have to go G5. That's probably Boise. You understand where they're probably going to go. So right now we're talking about a bubble that may have included Alabama, but then you come in. into here and you start looking at these teams on the bubble. And here's what I think it's going to look like. I think that you're going to be trying to debate between essentially Indiana at probably 11 and 1 and Miami, probably at 12 and 1. So who wins that argument? Both strength of schedules would be scrutinized. And rightly so.

Now, Miami has been in the top 10 for most of the season. Indiana has yet to be in the top 10. This is why next week's college football playoff rankings are so fascinating. Because what are we going to get? What are we going to get? Now, Miami has potential Heisman winner at that point, Cam Ward. I see Miami as a 12 and 1. I see Indiana as an 11 in 1.

At that point, Indiana just does not have the marquee win. face it, Miami doesn't really either, but they do have the higher end talent, which unfortunately is going to play into this, and they've got the extra game. And I want to be completely consistent with things that I've argued in the past. And one of the things that I've argued in the past is that you should not be penalized, punished for making it to your conference championship game and winning it. And this would be punishing Miami if they were to be left out, just because they got to a conference championship game and lost.

Because you could make a theory that like, well, if Indiana would have gotten to their conference championship game and lost, then they would be 11 and 2, and this would be a totally moot point. And that's totally fair, which is why at number 11, I'm going to go Miami. I think Miami would get the 11th spot, Boise State would get the 12 spot, and the first team out would be Indiana. And I'm just telling you right now, folks, Indiana is facing a very narrow road to the playoff.

In fact, if you look at Indiana, let's just say they finish 11 and 1. It would be far better for Indiana to be an 11 and 1 team with an Ohio State win and a loss to a lesser team rather than winning all the games that they would be favored in and losing to Ohio State. Because at least then, they could have a feather in their cap of a great win, of a great win. So I do believe that Indiana's only path to the playoff other than getting themselves into the Big 10 championship game is beating Ohio State. I believe that they have to win in the shoe against Ohio State, and then it becomes a more palatable argument. But they're not going to win an argument over Alabama, who's got a win over Georgia.

They're not going to win an argument over Miami, who in this case would have 12 wins to 11 wins. So it's a narrow path for Indiana still, and they would, in this case, be on the outside looking in. There's my projection right there. There's my November bracket. I like it. I like it.

That would be incredible. Tennessee at Notre Dame, sign me up. Bama at Penn State, absolutely. Miami at Texas, you bet. You bet. There is no way in the world. You can look at this college football season, look at these projections, and think to yourself, man, I'm so pissed that we expanded the playoff. It's like, that's not a thing.

That's absolutely not a thing. That'll do it for me today. Those are your picks and previews. That's my projected November CFP bracket. And enjoy the weekend of college football. Big noon kickoff, big noon Saturday. Saturday, live from Happy Valley as Ohio State takes on Penn State.