The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Joel Klatt’s College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction + National Champion Pick

Episode Date: August 18, 2025

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt predicts who will make the College Football Playoff in 2025. He begins by making his Conference Championship Game predictions before unveiling his CFP Bracket. Klatt then predicts how each matchup will play out including his pick for this season’s National Champion. Will Ohio State go back-to-back? Is it finally Penn State’s time to rise to the top of the sport? Will Arch Manning lead Texas to their first National Championship in two decades or will another team be his surprise pick? Klatt also reveals the First Round matchup that he wants to see more than any other this upcoming season. He considers whether programs under immense pressure like Alabama and LSU will make the 12-team field and reveals a Preseason Top-10 team he thinks will miss out and be the first team on the outside looking in. Use my code for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/KLATT10Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $20 discount. 0:00-1:57 Intro1:58-5:51 Conference champ predictions5:52-7:13 Top 4 seeding7:14-16:41 5-12 seeding16:42-20:27 Quarterfinals20:28-23:48 Semifinals23:49-24:42 National championship game24:33-26:08 National championship winner Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I think Ohio State has a great year, but Penn State wins the Big Ten championship game. This means Brian Kelly's going to South Bend. And I'm like, yep, I'm here for it. Yes, yes, yes. Dabo Sweeney would join Nick Sabin as one of the only coaches to win national championships over different cycles of recruits. A day like today is why we love college football. Hey, welcome in, everybody. Welcome into the Joel Clatt show.

I am Joel Clatt. This show is brought to you by graduate by Hilton. We thank them for their support. And we have football this week. Let's go. It's finally here. I cannot wake week. Week zero.

We're going to have a little prediction episode later in the week. But it's here. We've done it. We have gotten through the offseason and now we actually have football. So here's what I wanted to do is I wanted to give you my bracket predictions. That's right. My bracket predictions for college football. This is it.

Rubber meets the road. And I just want to remind you guys. Last year, we did do pretty well in our. our preseason bracket prediction. We got six of the eight quarter finalists right, three of the four semi-finalists, right. We got Ohio State, Texas, and Notre Dame. We knocked that out of the park.

And then we did pick Ohio State as the national champ. So listen, for what it's worth, last year was a good year with the picks. Maybe this one will be the same. So let's see what we got. Let's see what we got. As was the case a year ago, what I wanted to do was start with the conference championship games who I think will be playing in those games and then who will win those games. That's going to inform us a great deal in terms of how we start to seed these teams.

And remember, straight seeding this year, it's not the four best champs getting the top four Cs, but we're just going to seed them one through four and then five through 12. All right, so let's get into these conference championship games. This is how I see them. Let's start in the Big Ten. So I've got Penn State and Ohio State playing for the Big Ten title. Now, I do think Ohio State's likely going to beat Penn State in the shoe. earlier in the season, there's a chance that even with that other home game against Texas that

Ohio State's undefeated at this point, they would be number one in the country, but you've got to remember, the pressure on James Franklin would be immense. Now, in this scenario, let's say they've beaten Oregon earlier in the year, and they have a win over a top 10 team, and so you can say, okay, they've gotten over that hurdle, but remember, it wouldn't have been against a traditional Big 10 power. He would not have ever, or at this point, beaten Ohio's State in recent vintage or Michigan in recent vintage on this run that they've been on since COVID. So like they have to get this win. So the pressure on James Franklin would be immense. And because of that, I actually think his team would play their best football. An experienced team, experienced a

quarterback. You don't have experience on the other side. Now Julian's saying, let's say he's the quarterback. He doesn't have the home game environment that he wouldn't issue. And I think Penn State actually beats Ohio State and that they win the big 10. They were right there last year lost to Oregon, they go back, and they play for the Big Ten title, and they beat the Buckeyes this time, they become the Big Ten champ. Let's move to the SEC. I got Texas and Georgia in that game. Now, when you think about the way that this season could play out, Texas has to go to Athens and they play at Georgia. Let's say they lose that game, all right? I mean, that's not out of the realm of possibility. Remember, Georgia's 47 and 1 in their last 48 games there in the last 8, 9 years.

like this team doesn't lose at home. So you'd be asking Georgia to beat Texas a second time. This is a team that's balanced. They have a great defense. Arch at that point will have a whole season under his belt. I think that they're going to be able to run the football. And more importantly, more importantly, their line will have been developed.

And the offensive line is one of the only question marks I have about this team. So I actually think Texas avenges that loss and wins the SEC championship game. And so Penn State and Texas would eventually be the top one and two season. We'll get to that in just a moment. ACCC title game, Clemson and Miami. I think Miami gets there finally. But what does Miami struggle with? Big games.

And this would be a giant game, a huge game, basically a play-in game for Mario Cristobal and the Hurricanes. Meanwhile, Clemson, like, this is going to be old hat for them. They will have played LSU. They will have played South Carolina. They've got all that experience, including their quarterback club Nick. They've got a coach that's won two national chance. championships. I think Clemson wins the ACC and they beat Miami in that game. And that leaves us

with the Big 12. Kansas State and Utah are going to play for the Big 12 title. I think Utah is going to have a really good year. Again, I just kind of tuck them away in the back end of that top 25 in the preseason. But just don't be surprised. If they make a bit of a run, they've got some of their tougher games at home. They're very good in Salt Lake. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they actually win a lot of those games, play in the Big 12 championship game. They might even be favored in that game, but I've got Kansas State winning the Big 12. They have been the picture of consistency in this conference. Chris Kleiman has done a hell of a job.

They've got the experience at quarterback. So I'm going to lean towards Kansas State here as the winners of the Big 12. So I've got Penn State, Texas, Clemson, and Kansas State winning those four conference championship games. We are not just taking the four best champions like we do. did a year ago, which promoted some of those weird seedings where we had Ohio State as an aide in Oregon had to play Ohio State. So we've got straight seeding this year. That's a difference from a year ago. So now we get into what are the seeds? Well, if it happens that

way, I would think that some combination of the one two seed would be Penn State in Texas. And since, as you know, a couple of weeks ago in my way too early, not even way too early, in my preseason top 25 poll, I had Penn State as my number one. one team. So I'm just going to remain consistent. Again, could it be Texas? Yeah, possibly. But is Penn State a good number one? Yeah, absolutely. So I've got Penn State as my number one seed and then Texas as my two seed. Now, here's where it gets interesting because I'm not just going to go straight like my top 25 because you're going to have those championship games played. In this scenario, I'm going to have Clemson as my number three seed. I think Clemson is at worst, a one-loss team, ACC. They will have

just beat Miami, which means they get the three seed because my number four seed is actually going to be one of the conference game losers. Now, in this model, I could see a scenario where, like, let's say Ohio State has a great year. Let's say they've even beat Texas. So in this case, Texas would be like a one-loss SEC champ and they had lost to Ohio State, but then Ohio State loses that championship game to Penn State. Maybe they beat the Nittany Lions in Columbus. And they would be number four. Okay, so I think Ohio State has a great year, but Penn State wins the Big Ten championship game, which means the Buckeyes would still get a buy, and they would be the number four seed. Now, we go from there. In this scenario, I think that Texas would have beaten Georgia

in the SEC championship game. I think they probably lose to Georgia earlier in the year, so Georgia is probably a one or two lost team, depending on how they do with that schedule, with remember, only three true road games. This is a team that's great at home. They've got all their tough games at home, but they've got tougher games than Ohio State does, which means I think that they pick up that second loss. They play for the SEC championship game,

but they're the five seed overall. Six, I've got Oregon. Okay, so Oregon will be my sixth seed. I see them possibly losing that game to Penn State on the road in September. That might be it. That might keep them out. of the Big Ten championship game.

And in this scenario, with Georgia's huge wins, possibly Texas earlier in the year, with Ohio State maybe going like undefeated and then just losing to Penn State, this is why like I just had Oregon there at six. And that would be kind of like the bar where everyone else is trying to get up to that point. But that's the question mark outside of the top three. It would be this four, five, six combination of Oregon, Ohio State and Georgia. on the outside of that would be a team that just doesn't have the resume but has the record in Notre Dame. So at seven, I've got Notre Dame. I can see this team going 11 and 1 all day long.

That would mean that they've probably only got one real marquee win. We'll see what the Boise win would look like for them if they were able to beat Boise. But an 11 and 1 Notre Dame feels like a seven seed with how that season could possibly play out. Now we get into the next champ. And the next champ is going to be the eight seed, which is Kansas State. So Kansas State gets in there. I think that they're like a one or two loss big 12 team winning the big 12 and getting that eight seed. So they're in at eight. Now I want to jump to 12 because 12 I see as the group of five team. I'm going to give that to Boise. I think that there's four spots left. One of them has to go to the group of five. I'm going to put them at the back of the line. They go to the 12 seed.

I've got Boise. They've got to replace Ashton Gentie. Yes. And I understand. that. But they do have Madsen their quarterback. He's back. Spencer Danielson has done a really good job there. This is a program that's firing on all cylinders right now. He's won the Mountain West in both of his seasons. I could absolutely see a year

in which Boise goes 11 and 1 potentially in the regular season. They're only lost maybe at Notre Dame. In that case, winning the Mountain West, I could see them absolutely in there. Very similar resume to a year ago. And a year ago, they actually got a buy, but it wouldn't be available to them this year with the straight seating.

So now that leaves three spots. And I kind of sped through those because this is where it really gets to the nitty-gritty. Like I think all of those teams that I have listed up there, they're going to do really well. And I'll be surprised, maybe not Kansas State. That's a crapshoot in the Big 12. But I'll be surprised if those other teams aren't in the playoff. I'll be surprised if Boise is not in the playoff. I'll be surprised if Georgia and Ohio State and Penn State, Clemson, Texas, Oregon, and Notre Dame are not in the playoff.

But now you're going to get to these teams that it's like, I think that there are bubble teams here this year. And it's going to come down to like three spots. And I think that there's going to be really four teams that I'm looking at that could have seasons that put them mashed up all together right here for the argument. And I'm here for it. Okay. Remember last year, before the year, we all thought 9 and 1 would likely get into the

playoff, in particular with like a very tough Big Ten or a very very tough. very tough SEC schedule. And people are saying like, oh, nine and one with that schedule, you're absolutely going to go. I've been hearing similar things this year. In fact, I've even fallen victim to saying it. I said it about Florida.

I've said it about Oklahoma at times this offseason. Like, man, that schedule nine and three, they should absolutely go. But here's the problem. Here's the problem with that. Is you start to actually assign records and play these games out and model the season. There's too many 10 and two teams left.

and those teams are going to get the benefit of the doubt over the nine and three teams. I've got four teams for three spots, and they're all 10 and 2. One of them is 10 and 3. Here's the four. Alabama, LSU, Michigan, Miami. I think we're going to have a big old royal rumble at the end of the year between those four teams, four teams, three spots. Remember, Miami has just gotten beat in the ACC championship game to Clemson. Now, you have to start with who do you think is going to get the benefit of the doubt of the four?

And of the four, there's clearly one that's going to have a win over the other because of location of the game, which would also be the best win on the board of those four teams. And I'm talking about Alabama beating LSU at home. Remember, that game is in Tuscaloosa. They also have games at Georgia, home against Tennessee, at South Carolina, Oklahoma. So even if they're able to beat LSU, there's a good chance that they might have two other losses, Georgia being one of those. And if they stub their toes somewhere else, they're not in the SEC championship game, but they have that win over Georgia.

They're being compared, or excuse me, win over LSU. They're being compared to LSU, which means they would get the next high siege, which is nine. So nine is Alabama. because of that win over LSU, nine is Alabama, they're going to go to Kansas State and play the Wildcats. Three teams, two spots left.

We've got LSU, we've got Michigan, and we've got Miami. LSU and Michigan are two, 10 and 2, excuse me, two lost teams. Miami is 10 and 3. They lose twice during the regular season, get to the ACC championship game, lose to Clemson for a third time.

Tendally, even if they're 11 and 2, they're going to be right into this mix. you then have to go to where are the big wins? Where are the big wins? And who are the losses? In this scenario, one of the losses that LSU has is to Alabama, which I already told you about. The other loss in this scenario is to the third seed in the country,

the Clemson Tigers, which means that they lost out on a tiebreaker and did not get into the SEC championship game, but they're 10 and 2 and their only losses are at Alabama, and at Clemson. They are absolutely getting in with the 10th seed. They're next. LSU and Brian Kelly

are going to the college football playoff. They're going to Notre Dame. Yes. Yes. Yes. I'm here for it.

This is the greatest thing that's ever happened. And guess what? I didn't even plan this out. It just happened. No joke. Steve, you guys all know Steve. Steve Owens,

not the former Heisman trophy winner, although he might have. He and I, Steve is in like my brain, and he and I are talking through this and we're going through this and we write all this down and we're going through this and we're like, okay, where are the losses? Who is this? Okay, where's the seeds fall? And then I write down and I'm like, whoa, Steve! This means Brian Kelly's going to South Bend.

And I'm like, yeah, absolutely. I'm here for it. All of us want it. 10-7 game LSU at Notre Dame. Of course. Of course. Now, that does leave one spot left, and you're all wondering, like, hey, who's the 11 seed? Well, at this point, who cares?

Because we've got LSU, Notre Dame in the playoff, and we'll get to that game in a moment. Now there's two teams left, 10 and 2 Michigan, 11 and 2 Miami, and or 10 and 3, Miami after Miami has lost to Clemson. Here's where this finally goes. Michigan has games against Oklahoma, Nebraska, USC, Washington, and Ohio State, okay? I don't think any of those are going to jump off of the page as far as, like, great wins. Miami is just not going to have the resume either. All right. And if it gets to the point where both of those teams are two lost teams at the end of the year,

at the end of the regular season, there's just no question Michigan's going to be ranked higher than them. And by the way, in this case, I have Ohio State running the table, which means that Ohio State would be beating Michigan. I know Michigan fans. I get it. I know what's happened in the last four years. I've called the game.

But that means that Michigan would be 10 and 1 going into Thanksgiving weekend. They're absolutely going to be ranked higher than Miami, who I've got stumbling during the regular season. Their two losses, maybe even three. Okay, their third being the ACC championship game. Like, that's going to be a higher ranked team. And then they lose. So you would have to take Miami and you would have to jump over teams that didn't play.

just because Miami lost, they're not going to do that. So I've got Michigan getting the last spot, and Miami is the first one out. Michigan is the 11 seed. They'll go to Eugene and face the ducks in a Big Ten on Big Ten matchup, and there you have it, my 12-team bracket for the 2025 season. I know that that's a little bit...

I just clap for myself. I'm sorry. That was... I'm sorry. It was more like a clap for like the Royal Wheat, like the show. if you will, just because we see it. And you as fans, we get to see the bracket. Every time I see a bracket, I'm just like, yes, this is phenomenal. The bracket has changed the sport.

The playoff has changed the sport. It's so much better. It is so much better. Okay, before we get into these games and how I see them playing out, you know what it's time for games. And you've got to get out there and you've got to do something that's fun, whether it's catching a game, surprising someone with tickets for live events. back. They're back in a huge way, which is why I want to give the sponsor of today's episode,

Seat Geek, a huge shoutout. With over 28 million downloads, Seatgeek is the number one rated ticketing app with more than 70,000 events listed. College football season is upon us. The NFL season is right on the horizon. MLB is in full swing, and our team uses Seatgeek to grab tickets for all of it. It's quick, it's easy, and you know you're getting a good deal. This is what I love about it. Every single ticket is rated on a scale of 1 to 10. So you can see the value at a glance. Green dots mean great deals. Red, now, maybe keep looking. Plus, every ticket is backed by their buyer guarantee. And here's the kicker. You can use code Clat 10 for 10% off your next seat geek purchase. That's 10% off any tickets with promo code Clat 10. Just click the link in the show description to download the app. The code is going to be automatically added to your account for, later when you decide to purchase. Thanks to seat geek, huge seat geek for sponsoring the show today.

All right, let's get into these games. First round, Georgia, Boise, in Athens. I mean, like, we know how that's going to go. And by the way, like home teams dominated. Home teams dominated last year. Georgia is going to beat Boise. That's a quick one. Georgia goes on to the quarter final and they're going to play Ohio State.

Okay, let's go over to Otson, Oregon and Michigan. That's going to be an incredible atmosphere. of us waiting for an atmosphere like that. And Oregon finally gets their home game, which they deserved last year as the number one seed, but they don't get it because our format is dumb and we're going to play neutral site games in the quarterfinals, which has to change, has to. But Oregon gets their home game. I think that they beat Michigan and they move on. So Oregon is going to go on to face Clemson in the quarterfinals. Then we get to that, I mean, I mean, this game, this next one. Aren't we all here for this? Don't you want to see LSU at Notre Dame? I cannot wait for this. This is what

I live for in college football when the storylines are rich like this. Like, I can't wait for it. And that place would be on fire. There is zero chance that LSU could go to Notre Dame and win with Brian Kelly on that opposite sideline. Not because of Brian Kelly, but only because of what he means. Like, the place would be on fire. And I understand LSU travels.

You LSU fans are some of the best fans in the country. You travel everywhere. Trust me, I went to the college world series once when LSU was in the college world series in Omaha. All I saw was RVs for days. I just started yelling, go tigers, and I was fed for like a week. It was incredible. So LSU fans, I know you'll travel, but that place will be on fire.

So I've got Notre Dame beating LSU and moving on to face Texas in that quarterfinal game. And then that leaves us with what I think is going to be an outstanding game, Alabama and Kansas State. I've got the tide rolling. This would be the first upset that we've gotten a road team going in in the playoff and winning. The first one is going to be Alabama. DeBoer needs it. He needs a win in the college football playoff, I think. So I've got Alabama over Kansas State.

How we go to the quarters? Let's start with that game right there. Penn State and Alabama. Even with some of the momentum, again, like Penn State needs this. If they lose in the quarterfinals, this is not good. I think that they get over the hump of winning those games against marquee teams like in Oregon earlier in the year.

Or like I said, they're just coming off. of a win over Ohio State in this scenario in the Big Ten championship game. So I've got Penn State beating Alabama here. They've got more experience. They were just here. It won't be new for them. Penn State moving on into the semifinals. Texas and Notre Dame would be a heck of a game, a heck of a game.

Now, Texas, I love Texas. Their defense is phenomenal. I think it could be one of the best defenses in the country. Arch at that point, let's hope he stays healthy. But at that point, I think he's playing great football. and I just don't think Notre Dame has enough to beat this Texas team. So I've got Texas moving on. They beat the Fighting Irish.

Clemson, Oregon should be an absolute phenomenal game. But one team has a very experienced quarterback. The other does not. So I'm going to go with Cade Klubnick and the Clemson Tigers here. I think this is a balanced Clemson team. I think Dabo gets into the semifinal and they would face Texas. And that leaves an unbelievable, monstrous game, Georgia. in Ohio State in the quarter of finals.

Can we please stop putting these games in neutral sites? All of us. College football fans, I'm on your side. We want to see these on campus. There's no reason none why we need to continue to play these in bowl sites. That needs to end. It needs to end like yesterday for the betterment of the game. No one's looking out for the betterment of the game.

We're going to do that here on this show. For the love of the game, we need these games. campus environments. Georgia, Ohio State. I can't get my head around Georgia. I think that Ohio State at that point will have their quarterback figured out. I think Patricia will have the defense figured out. I think that they've got the two best players in the sport in Downs and Smith. I think it's a tight game. This is a coin flip game, but I'm going to go with the Buckeyes over the Bulldogs and getting into the semifinal. That leaves Ohio State, Penn State for the third time and Clemson and Texas.

I think these would be amazing games, amazing games. I don't think Penn State can beat Ohio State twice, like in the matter of what is that. It would be about 30 days, something along those lines, maybe a little bit more, 35 days, 36 days from the Big Ten championship game to the national semifinals. You give Ryan Day the opportunity to adjust after a loss like that. He's going to adjust. So I'm going to go with Ohio State over Penn State and getting into the national championship for the second straight year. That would be devastating for Penn State after what happened a year ago.

I think they really need to get to the championship game, which we talked about in the defining success episode of the program. And on the other side, this Clemson, Texas game, I think could be an all-time great game. We continue to, I think we continue to lean into this idea of parity in the sport where we're going to get teams that are very close and matched up, Manning against Clubnik. I'm going to go with the more experienced quarterback here. I think Dabo and Clubnick and that defense and just their overall soundness get the job done. And I think we're going to have an Ohio State Clemson National Championship. Now, I don't think Ohio State's going to win back-to-back national championships. I could see them win these other games in the playoff,

but man, you're talking about going back to back a year after having 14 players drafted. I don't think that's the case. Meanwhile, you got a team in Clemson that I've got three players in my top 10 players overall in college football on their roster. They've got a coach that's done it before. They've got experience at quarterback. They've got a defense that could be one of the better, if not the best in college football, along with Texas.

I think Dabo wins his third national championship proves that there's still a way to win in this era where everyone has been all over him about not adjusting to the new era and he's going to go out there and win again, which means Davosweeney would join Nick Sabin as one of the only coaches to win national championships over different cycles of recruits. That's very difficult to do. Normally what you see is national championships won in one targeted concentrated time frame. Sabin blew that out of the water. Everybody that went to Alabama, you can get a ring. It was like Oprah with rings. Everyone gets a ring. No one generally does that. It's one of the tougher things to do in the sport. This is what Kirby Smart is going to have to face.

And this is what Ryan Day is going to have to face. And now Dabo would be getting another championship, his third, with a totally different cycle of recruits in an era that is totally different than when he won his first two. So that would be huge. My national champion, the official pick, the Clemson Tigers, win the national championship in college football. Folks, I can't wait that we have actual games this week. That's going to be amazing to watch, and I can't wait to walk through the season with you every step of the way because we love the sport here

and we're looking out for the sport here at the Joel Clatchew. We thank graduate by Hilton for their support. I'll be with you in a few days with more Joel Clatio.