The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Joel Klatt’s Final CFP Bracket Prediction and Conference Title Game Picks

Episode Date: December 5, 2024

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt makes his picks for Conference Championship Game Weekend before predicting how the final CFP Bracket will look on Sunday. Will Penn State finally get the big win they’ve been searching for when they face Oregon? Will Texas avenge their earlier loss to Georgia? Klatt then makes his picks in the Big 12, ACC and Mountain West Championship Games as those 3 Title Games are essentially play-in games to get into the Playoff. Among those 3 picks is an upset that will shake up the Bracket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The biggest point of contention next Sunday night is going to be between who gets the six and who gets the seven seed. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Hey, welcome into the program. This is the Joel Clatt show.

I am Joel Clad, and this show is brought to you by Hampton. by Hilton, and we thank them for their support. We have got picks today for the conference championship games. It's going to be fantastic. And remember, it's been a great season of picks here on the Joel Klaz show. We were three and two last week. Maybe it wasn't the best week overall, but we're still 45 and 29 against the spread overall. And we're not cherry picking these picks, right?

We're just doing between four and seven best games of the weekend and picking against the spread. So that's 61%. Hey, remember wherever you're listening to this show, go ahead and rate, review us, invite a friend in and share it with a friend because conversing and chatting about and debating college football is always good amongst friends. If you're on YouTube, thank you first and foremost. And then go ahead and subscribe to the channel, hit the notification button below, get in the comments, and we are there. And then wherever you like to social media, we're all over those places. So wherever you're at, go follow us at Joel Clatt Show and you

will catch our content out there. Big on TikTok these days. I don't know if you realize that, big on TikTok. So that's, that's fun. Let's go into these championship game previews because it should be an incredible weekend. We're playing for first round seating and buys. We're playing to get into the playoff in a lot of respect. So every single one of these games has major implications in terms of the way that this college football playoff is going to look and who's going to be involved in it. So let's get started. I am, listen, I'm super bummed. We don't have the Big Ten. championship game this week, or this year, I should say. So it'll be on CBS.

So good luck to all the folks over at CBS. Hope you guys have a great broadcast. I love this game in Indianapolis. I think it is a fabulous game and environment. And this year should be no different as Oregon takes on Penn State, who jumped into that game because of the Ohio State loss last week to Michigan. So Penn State is now number three in the country. And then Dan Lannning is number one in the country with the Oregon Ducks.

and they are favored by three and a half. Now, let's face it, if you're anything like me, I thought that that line was low. Based on the history that Penn State has had in big games and based on the way Oregon has played this season, they're the only team that has been totally above the freight. And in a lot of ways, we haven't talked about them because of that. We haven't talked about Oregon because they haven't had the loss.

They haven't had the game where we have to reevaluate what we're, we actually think about Oregon, what we actually think about the pieces for the Oregon Ducks, because they haven't lost. And listen, in some games, was it dicey like at Wisconsin? Yes, but they ended up winning the game. And so here they are, only undefeated team in the country and they're headed to the Big Ten championship game in the first year in the conference. So Dan Lannning and Oregon, they look to win this thing in their first year. And they've got a quarterback who's the most experienced quarterback in the history of college football, and they're going to do this for the second straight year. Boenix last year set the record with just over 60 starts in his career

in college football. Well, Dylan Gabriel is about to break that record on Saturday with his 62nd career start. Staggering amount of experience for Dylan Gabriel now in his third school and he's played a ton of football. He's got weapons that are back and healthy. Tess Johnson back after missing those two games with that shoulder injury. Remember he was banged up earlier in the year. He did catch a touchdown last week. So they're getting a little bit healthier on the offensive side. And they're getting a bit healthier on the defensive side as well. The defensive line, two big time guys.

Oiyunga Lele leads the big 10 in sacks. Jordan Birch, he's back in healthy. He's got eight and a half sacks despite missing a few games this year. And you look to last week against Washington, they had 10 sacks in that game. That's a staggering amount. So this team can get after it on the defensive side, they're experienced and explosive on the offensive side. There is a reason that they're number one in America.

It's not just because of their record, but what they have done and what they have proven. I was up and around this team last spring, and there was a real sense of urgency and purpose with that group. I actually spoke to Oregon's team, but it was in a different vein than just motivation for a season. It was in the vein of looking ahead towards the future. and they do a great thing there with this kind of a foundation that comes in

and they bring in a lot of different people from different walks of life and they basically put on a post football seminar for the Oregon Duck Players. Well, I went up there and I just talked about my path after football and into broadcasting. And this group was focused. I don't know how else to say it. This was a really focused program and they didn't start out great as they They were trying to gel early with a new quarterback and some new pieces on the offensive line. But once they figured it out, this team has been outstanding.

And in a lot of ways, underrated, even at number one in the country, because nobody talks about them. We constantly talk about Ohio State and Georgia and Alabama and all the teams in the SEC. And we talked about Michigan's downfall this year. And then all of a sudden they're beating Ohio State. and we talk about James Franklin and Penn State, and maybe it's my fault. It's like they have been so under the radar up there in the Northwest that we just haven't given Oregon their due.

And I'm trying to do that right now before they play a championship game against the Nittany Lions. This team is excellent. They are deep. They are quality across the board. This is a team that doesn't have a real glaring weakness. I think probably the worst part of their team is their rush defense, but you have to strip out the sacks in order to get to that location.

So it's a deep team. They can win a gritty game. They can win a defensive game. They're good on the offensive line. They've got an experienced quarterback. This team is really, really good, which then leads back to my initial comment. Why is this only three and a half? That was a bit surprising to me.

Then you look over there with Penn State and it's like, there's no other way to put it than they were fortunate to get into this game. They've had a very good year. James Franklin and Penn State. Now the question is, can you win the big game? He's 1 and 14, James Franklin and Penn State against top five opponents as their head coach. He lost to Ohio State earlier this year. We have talked at length about their struggles against in previous years, Ohio State and Michigan.

Well, Oregon is in that class. They have not proven that in their own conference, they can beat a team at the level of Ohio State or Oregon or in previous years, Michigan. They have not proven that. And so, listen, can they win this game Saturday? Yes, absolutely. And they're talented enough and they're getting experienced enough. We just haven't seen it from them before. We have not seen them play their best game in these environments. It's one of the reasons why their offensive coordinator, Andy Kodalmicki, is even there in state college, is because of the failures in these specific games, namely kind of the way the offense played against Ohio State last year in the shoe.

And they didn't get the football to their stars. So Nick Singleton didn't touch the football. And James Franklin had had enough. So he made the change, even though they were statistically the best offense in the conference last year. He makes a change at offensive coordinator with the specific instruction to not let that happen again, meaning the ball is going to touch the hands of our best players against the best opponents.

And then that didn't happen against Ohio State, which was kind of shocking. And then they went right back to Tyler Warren and Singleton after that, and they've gotten back on board. And now they're a one-lost team looking for a Big Ten championship game, which would be James Franklin's second at Penn State. Remember, they were able to beat Wisconsin. When was that? 2000, I want to say like 16, something along those lines. Andy Codalnicki has got to find a way to get the ball to his best players. Tyler Warren has to touch this ball early and often. Go back if you want to and just look at the play by play or even the game film or even, you know, the YouTube clips of what they did

against USC early in that game on the road. That was a big game for Penn State. You know, say what you will about USC's record. You know, that's a better team than their record indicates. And they went in there and they targeted Tyler Warren early and often in all different types of creative ways. And that's one of the things that Koldlnicki is kind of famous for. You've got to get the ball to Nick Singleton. Because if you're going to beat this Oregon team, which is deep and they can rush the passer and they're good in every. single area and level of defense, you're going to have to do it with your best players. You're not just going to use your system down the field and end up, you know, scoring points or

requisite points against this Oregon team. I think Alar is going to have to be a threat with his legs, which he was against Ohio State at times in that matchup earlier this year. You've got to get the ball to Singleton. You've got to get the ball to K-Tron Allen. You've got to get the ball to Tyler Warren. And then even then, you're likely going to have to have somebody else step up on the outside and make some plays as a wide receiver, which is exactly what happened in that USC game earlier this year. Now, defensively, Penn State is excellent, and this is going to be a big test for them.

There's no doubt, but it will also be a big test for Oregon because they haven't really seen a defender like Abdul Carter. He is now the Big Ten's player of the year on the defensive side, 10 sacks, 19 and a half tackles for loss. This guy is an excellent player, man. I'm telling you what, like, he should have his say, And if he does have his say, Oregon will struggle at times because of the pass rush and because of the way that they can get after it.

The issue with Penn State's defense is that they're so much better with the lead. And I know that that's every defense, but the reason that's the case is that they're not great against the run. Not when you can line up and really physically point yourself downhill at Penn State. We saw that late against Ohio State this year. We saw that in previous years. And I can just tell you from watching the film, this is a talented, athletic, lengthy defense.

And at times, if you get in there and get them and drag them into a phone booth and a fist fight, they'll start to jump around blocks. And if that happens, then it's a huge advantage for Oregon. So can Oregon run the football? I don't know. Can Penn State run the football? That might be their best option. I just told you that I think that the worst thing that Oregon probably does, and it's not

even terrible, is defend the run. If you strip out the sack yardage, they're 42nd. country in terms of average yards per rush. That's really the only category that you can look at Oregon and be like, hey, are they not elite? Maybe there. And so if you're Penn State, don't you try to attack them in that area? I would with Ketron Allen, with Nick Singleton. Absolutely I would. And that's certainly what Penn State's going to need to do. I don't think that this line is indicative of this matchup. I look at the struggles that Penn State has had against teams like Oregon. I look at just the sound nature that Oregon has. I don't think that they're

of flinch. They've got the experienced quarterback. Three and a half is not enough. I like Oregon winning the Big Ten championship, 3121 in Indianapolis. They win it by 10 and they cover the three and a half. And the Oregon Ducks will be the Big Ten champions in my estimation on Saturday night. By the way, at the end of these picks, I'm going to run through what these picks mean for a playoff. So I will be projecting out my college football playoff in the way that it should look based on the picks that I'm giving you right now in these conference championship games. Let's go down to Atlanta, the SEC championship game, number five, Georgia, rematch with number two, Texas.

That is a two and a half point line as Kirby Smart finds himself as an underdog, which means we're going to get underdog Kirby. Nobody believed in us and all of that stuff. You know what? Kirby is just like, he's at times like a wind-up doll. They win a game that they should have won by a higher margin on the road in the SEC, and it's like wind them up and it's like, and it's tough to. win on the road in the SEC, boom. They win a big game against a tough opponent, wind him up,

and nobody gave us any chance to win this. It's like clockwork, man. So tune him up, tune him up, twist them up. Here we go. We've got Georgia as an underdog against Texas, at home, basically. But I digress. Okay. The first meeting, what happened in that first meeting? Well, Georgia's defensive line totally dominated the offensive line of Texas, which, to be honest, was a bit surprising. I think Texas has one of, if not the best offensive line in the country. And you put not only production, but experience into that equation to kind of land on that. They're one of the most experienced offensive lines. I do think that it's going to be an interesting point in this game in terms of,

injuries. Kelvin Banks, who is the star left tackle for Texas, high draft pick. He's dealing with an ankle injury. He's been walking around in a boot. Ewers has been dealing with an ankle injury. So like how effective is Kelvin Banks going up against a front that was the only front to really dominate them during the course of the year? Remember, like Georgia was excellent in that game in Austin. Seven sacks, 10 tackles for loss. Great game. You know, plan, the defense was outstanding, and they created a ton of short fields for their offense, which really ended up being the determining factor in the game. Do I think that the game is going to play out exactly like that?

No, I don't. I don't because Steve Sarkesian is way too smart to go in there with a similar or the same game plan against Georgia. They won't do that. And a lot of the mistakes that they made on the offensive side are correctable. the wrong release from a wide receiver. Ewers not seeing a corner blitz. All these things like led to turnovers,

which led to points, and then they couldn't overcome that. Remember, this is the game that Steve Sarkesian benched Quinn Ewers and went to Archmanning right before half. So it's interesting. We'll have to see how tight of a leash Quinn Ewers has, and even with that ankle being banged up, let's remember the last time we saw Georgia,

what were they doing? They were giving up a ton of yardage to the quarterback of Georgia Tech Haynes King. So the legs of Arch Manning, could that be a factor in this game? Very well might be if I'm watching the film of that game from last week, and I'm watching that Georgia defense, which has not played very well since that game against Texas. I would just say, like, that could be an advantage for Texas.

Could we see Arch and the ability to use his legs, even if it's kind of in and out with Ewers? I keep landing on this. I like Quinn Ewers a lot. I'm starting to come around to this idea that, like, Arch might be a better option, but he's more inexperienced. It's very difficult.

Don't you get the sense that this could be a similar discussion internally that Alabama had back when they had Jalen Hertz and Tua Tuaua, there was a very real possibility that Tua was going to start against Clemson in the playoff that year, in the semifinal. Hurt starts, they win the game, and give him a start in the national championship, and he gets the quick hook at halftime Tua comes in and they win the national championship. Like, I'm just posing it because in this matchup, I think the quarterback's going to have to run.

And the more dynamic running threat is Arch. I think that that's pretty clear. which Georgia team is going to show up in this one? That's a question. You talk about a team that's had really high highs and really low lows this year. You've got a team that has played really well, but even in a loss to Alabama. They played some brilliant football in some of these other games and wins in a tough schedule. And then you've got the Georgia that has the eight overtime win against Georgia Tech,

the one-point win against Kentucky. Like, what is that? The first half against Alabama. And then you've got the team that played great against Texas on the road and Tennessee and Clemson by 14 points. So it's like, which version are we getting? I'm not sure. Let's just hope for their sake that it's the good version.

I do think Carson Beck has been better over the last few games. He has not turned the football over, which was a real problem for them early in the season. he turned it over three times against Texas. They still won. But in the last three games, he's a lot better. He's 12 touchdowns, no interceptions, no turnovers. I think that that's a real factor in this one.

Yours, is he healthy against that Georgia defense? I just wanted to pose the question. Can Carson Beck drive the football against Texas and score? I don't know. I don't know. The 30 points that they put up against Texas, I think in the first matchup, was not indicative of the matchup. Remember all the short fields that they got?

They had, what, six scoring drives and only one of those drives went more than 35 yards. The only drive that went more than 35 yards, they needed a long, explosive trick play in order to kind of get it going. And this Texas defense has been really consistent. They've been very good. And so I have my questions about what Georgia can do. do on the offensive side. It's been a very inconsistent year from their offense. Bex turned it over. Their wide receivers are not great. They've had, they've been banged up on

the offensive line. Like they just played an eight overtime game. Guys are dropping the football. I don't love it. And Texas's defense is an elite defense. They're number two in the country behind only Ohio State. And, and I got to tell you, like, Georgia's defense just gave up 500 yards to Georgia Tech. So trends in this one lead me to believe that Texas is going to win. I have said this all along. I thought that these were the two best teams in the SEC when they played the first time. I thought that they were going to get a rematch. And ever since

then, I've said, I think Texas would win the rematch. I think Texas wins the rematch. I think they're a better football team. Now it's a two and a half point spread. Texas is favored. I think that they cover. I think Texas wins this game. Rematches are generally, generally low

scoring. I think 24-21, Texas wins this game and they cover by half a point. So the Texas Longhorns, and they're year in the SEC win the SEC. Big 12 championship game. This one is a win and end. So this is basically a playoff game for Arizona State and Iowa State. Here we go. Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils come in as a team that was picked to finish 16th in this conference. I love this, man. This is what this new modern style of college football is all about. You can rebuild yourself quickly. You can overcome the odds and you can do something that is quite special. And Arizona

State is sitting here with a chance to do that. But so is Iowa State. Iowa State has not won a conference championship since 1912. So it makes the drought for the sun devils look like nothing. Arizona State hasn't won a conference championship since 2007. So like 1912, this is like Red Sox territory for Iowa State. This is a long time. And now Iowa State and Arizona State will be locking it up in Dallas.

Okay, so Arizona State's going to be short-handed in this one. Their best wide receiver, Jordan Tyson, is out indefinitely. Tyson is the third, excuse me, leading receiver in the Big 12. He's got over 1,100 yards, and he's been really good of late. When you look at his last three games, he's had at least eight catches, at least 125 yards. He's been really good. And what that has been able to open up is more of the run game for Scatibu, for Arizona State. So the key is without Tyson, can Cam Scadbu

handle the workload and have the room to operate? Scataboo is unbelievable. I love this guy. I love this guy. Cam Scadaboo is everything that's great in college football. He is a workhorse. He's not a big guy, but he's had 25 touches in seven different games this season. I love that. He's averaging 170 scrimmage yards per game and is their second leading receiver behind Tyson. This has got to be Scataboo game. It really does. Iowa State has had trouble at times stopping the run this year, which is a little bit interesting for a Matt Campbell team, but that's the case. This has been an offensive lead team for Iowa State, not a defensive lead team for Iowa State. And in particular,

defending the run has not been a strong suit for the Cyclones. They're 14th, 14th in the Big 12 in terms of run defense. So advantage Arizona State. They're strong where Iowa State is weak. I think that that is a pretty clear advantage. Now, on the flip side, Iowa State has a very good quarterback, Rocco Beck. He's been at his best, very good. And in the second half of the year, it's been a little hit or miss. But again, at his peak, if you get a good Rocco Beck, it's very good. And he's got weapons on the outside.

He's got two wide receivers that have each gone over 1,000 yards. By the way, they're the only team in the country that has two wide receivers that have gone over 1,000 yards. Jay Higgins, Jalen Knoll, teammates, each over 1,000 yards. I look at this game and there's going to be a lot of pressure. Winners go into the college football playoff and that's the way we should want it. Like this is so good. This is not just playing for a Big 12 title.

This is not a hypothetical birth or a potential birth in a 14 playoff. This is win and in in the Big 12. I love this. This is why the expanded playoff is so great. Arizona State against Iowa State with a playoff berth on the line. Give it to me all day long. Iowa State's ranked 16th. Arizona State is ranked 15th.

The Sun Devils are favorites. I think that that's because of the way that they have played down the stretch. I think that they are a hot team right now. I'm going to go with the hot team. They're favored by two and a half. I think that they cover that two and a half. Kenny Dillingham is building something very special at Arizona State. I love what Matt Campbell has done, but again,

the strength of what Arizona State brings to the table is the ability to run the football and the ability to be creative with their running back Cam Scataboo. That's exactly where I would want to attack this Iowa State Cyclone Defense. So give me Arizona State. They're going to go down to Dallas and get a birth in the playoff after being picked to finish 16th in their own conference in the preseason. I like them 34, 20. and I like them covering that two and a half

and the sun devils are into the playoff under Kenny Dillingham. Like, let's go. College football right now is phenomenal. ACC championship game. Clemson and SMU, SMU, two and a half point favorites. Clemson coming off of that really,

I would say, frustrating and heartbreaking loss to South Carolina. This game is in Charlotte, only about two and a half hour drive from Clemson. the atmosphere should be in favor of Clemson. And again, this is a win and you're in game, which is incredible. Win and you're in. Even for the season that Clemson has had, you win this football game and you're going to

the dance, man. And I'm absolutely here for it. And I love college football right now. Clemson will be really upset with how they finished against South Carolina. That should spur them to a quality week of practice. And I think some of the fixes necessary to go out and play much better this week. Clemson did a good job of running the football. They did a good job of getting the ball out of Clubnick's hands last week

because South Carolina's rush was elite. And they didn't let that rush really affect them. SMU also has a good pass rush. So I think the ability to run the football, maybe even with the quarterback with Clubnick, who ran for two touchdowns last week, I think it's going to be imperative. Slow down the rush, use the quick game and the passing game.

Don't expose Kate Clubnick to the pass rush. of SMU. Now the Clemson defense, they held South Carolina, which has been hot lately, by the way, and they held them to 17. So you can make an argument that the Tiger defense is ready for this challenge, even against an SMU offense that is very good and a potent offense. You look down at this Ret Lashley SMU offense with a lot of transfers in, you know, not dissimilar to like an Indiana, although or a Colorado, Rhett Lashley brought a lot of these guys from Miami where he was at. And now Lashley has SMU at fifth in the country offensively scoring 39 points per game. The idea that they would go in there and just do that against Clemson, I think is a bit far-fetched.

Remember, this is a schedule that has not been very strong at all. In fact, when you look at SMU's conference schedule, they played six of their eight conference games against teams that were at or below 500 in conference play. So this is not a very tested team. The one team that they played that was ranked, the best team that was ranked, the best team they played BYU, they lost. I think Clemson is, is every bit as good as BYU, and they're going to be tough on the defensive side.

The Mustangs are 9 and 0 since switching to Kevin Jennings. He's their starter after that BYU lost. Breschard Smith, he's been really good for them as well, the running back. I look up, though, and it's like, man, this is a tried and true blue blood in this conference, looking for their seventh, or excuse me, Clemson has won seven of the last nine ACC championship games. They're looking for their eighth in the last 10. And they've got a lifeline. And the

lifeline being that Miami went up to the dome and lost to Syracuse. And now, Clemson controls their own destiny to get to the dance. You're going to get a very motivated team. They're going to rely on that culture. I think that they can slow down SMU's offense, although I do think

that this is going to be a high scoring affair. Here's what I've got on this one. SMU is favored by two and a half. I'm going with the outright upset here. wins this game. They cover that two and a half and they get the win outright. 35, 31 in a high scoring game. Clemson wins this thing and punches their ticket to the college football playoff. Man, that's going to be a great game as well. Can't wait for that one. Another playing game, this time from the Mountain West. Here we go. UNLV and Boise State, winner goes. By the way, there has never been as good of a championship game weekend as what we're going to experience this weekend.

congratulations college football fans. This is phenomenal. I love it. And by the way, this is one of the only weekends in the history of my career. I'm going to be able to just sit at home and watch these games, which is incredible. And I will be doing that with my three boys on Saturday. Mountain West Championship game, this one's on Friday. However, Friday night on Fox. Jason Benetti, Brock Heward will have the call. Number 20, UNLV is going to go to Boise State. number 10 of the country, Boise State is favored by three and a half. Again, Friday night on Fox, playoff spot on the line. I imagine that this place, you go up there and it's like,

that place is going to be on fire, right? Warm weather teams, UNOV, don't play well in cold weather, do they? I don't think so. I haven't, I just, listen, these are the two highest ranked group of five teams. Playoff spot on the line. got Ashton Genty there, Boise State. These teams met earlier in the year. This one was in Vegas earlier in the year.

Boise State still won that game 2924. This is the number one and two scoring offense and defense in the Mountain West. Clearly the two best teams in the Mountain West. This is everything you want. A couple of group of five teams ready to get after it. And remember all of the controversy with UNLV early in the season, their quarterback leaving it. They're here, they're ready, and here we go.

These two teams are strong running. teams, obvious for Boise and Ashton Genty. But UNLV with their QB, Malik Williams, and they're running back Jaden Thomas, they can run the football and they did so pretty well against Boise in that first matchup. Genty now has 2,288 yards, a staggering amount of production for Ashton Genty. It's the fifth most ever in a single season. He will likely pass Marcus Allen for fourth in this game. And if you're looking at just like what it means for the future, he would need a 170 or so for two games to reach Barry Sanders. So if he averages 170 in this game and they win and he gets another game of the

playoff, he could, in theory, get to that hallowed mark of what Barry got to in that incredible 1988 season. UNLV did hold Genty, though, to 128 yards. And it took him 33 carries to get there in their first meeting. So UNLV is not a slouch in terms of their defense and the way that they stop the run, stop the run. That's the only time he's been held under four yards per carry in a game this season. UNLV has the number one rush defense in the Mountain West. That is a huge feather in their cap for this game. Gentie got a little bit banged up two weeks ago, but he's come back and he had a career high,

what, 37 touches in their last win over Oregon State. Boise, QB, Maddox, Madsen, doesn't turn it over much. He does what he needs to do, only three turnovers and 12 starts this year. Former Indiana a receiver, Cam Camper is Boise's leading receiver on the year. The only thing that gives me pause in this game, listen, like, I'm riding with Boise here. They're at home. They've got Ashton, even against a very good run defense, the only thing that gives me pause is that they haven't been great against running quarterbacks, and that's exactly what they're going to see from UNLV. So you might tell me that this is a bad matchup, but I just, I don't see it. This buildup for Boise has been too strong, too strong. I think

Boise wins this game. I think that they cover the three and a half and I think that they go to the playoff. I think Boise State wins this game, something in the line of like 27-21, similar to the 29-24 game that they played earlier this year. And remember, I'll come back to this. That game was at UNLV. Now they're going to get this game at home.

And I think that they win it. I think that they win it 27-21 and that the Boise State Broncos go to the playoff. So here are the picks for championship game weekend. Oregon's covering the three and a half. I've got Texas over Georgia and covering the two and a half. Arizona State as the favorite beating the cyclones.

They're covering the two and a half. I've got Clemson, the more tried and true pick in the ACC, beating SMU as an outright dog. So they cover their two and a half or what they get for two and a half there. I'm taking those points. And then Boise State at home, I think beats UNLV and I think they cover the three and a half. This is a great weekend of championship game football.

Look at those lines. They're all tight. We don't have a blowout. This is why it was so great to move away from the division format that we had in college football for so long, where we had lopsided divisions within conferences, and then we got huge spreads in conference championship games that weren't all that competitive. Now it's different. You get top two seeds, and these games are going to be great. And every single one has implications for the college football playoff. So with that being said, let's take my picks and let's throw them in a bracket. But before we do that, I just want to revisit what we gave you and projected here on the Joel Clatch show in November. So let's go back to my November bracket.

And this was the projection that I had in the November bracket. So we take a look at it. And I had Oregon as the one seed. I had Georgia as the two seed, Clemson as the three seed, and BYU as the four. So that's obviously going to change because they're not even playing for the Big 12 title. Now, at the five, I had Ohio State. We'll see. Texas I had at six.

Seven was Penn State. Eight was Notre Dame. Nine was Tennessee. At 10, I had Alabama. 11, Miami. They're probably going to be out in 12, Boise State. And I think that that seed is absolutely going to change. So here's what we're going to do.

Let's move into the Joel Clashow projected college football bracket based on the picks that I just gave you right here on this picks episode of the program. Let's start with this. Let's go with the champs first and let's place them in the bracket. The number one overall seed is going to be, in my estimation, Oregon, with a win on Saturday in the Big Ten championship game, Oregon would be number one. I've got Texas winning the SEC and Texas would be the two seed. They're slotted in there and there's the Texas Longhorns. Now it gets a little bit interesting because remember, I picked Clemson to beat SMU, which means that the next highest ranked team that I have winning and winning a conference is Boise State at number three. So Boise would be the three seed because I've got Arizona State winning the Big 12 and not

passing Boise in the rankings. I don't think that they're going to pass Boise. So in the event that Clemson wins, which I have them winning, Boise is going to be the three seed, not the four. They're going to get a buy. They'll be the three seed and Arizona State will be the four seed and get a buy because guess who won't pass them in their college football playoff birth, Clemson. So Clemson would be the fifth champion and I believe they would be the 12 seed. They would be the team that's included in this playoff. They play themselves into this playoff and Clemson would be the 12 seed.

Again, based on my picks in the conference championship games. There's the five champions. So if that were to happen, let's start to think. about where would the committee go with the rankings after that? Okay, and here's where I think that they would land. The next highest ranked team would likely be the number three ranked team in the country and the number five seed, Notre Dame. If this happens, and Texas wins and Oregon beats Penn State, Penn State will fall, and Notre Dame will be the highest ranked team left, and they will get that coveted five seed. I believe they would host Clemson.

and they would face Arizona State and their second round game. Now we get to this combination of like, how are we going to rank the next four? And before I put them up, I'm just going to tell you like, here's the next four teams that I think that the committee is going to have to rank. Ohio State, Georgia, Penn State, and Tennessee. Now, in this case, Georgia would have three losses.

Ohio State would have a win against Penn State. And Georgia would have a win against Tennessee. So this is the way I think it would go. I think that they would rank them. Ohio State, Georgia, Penn State, Tennessee. That means that Ohio State is the sixth seed and hosting, and they would be hosting a first round playoff game. I think that then the next seed is the seven seed, which is Georgia.

I think that they would be ranked higher than Penn State and Tennessee. I think the next highest ranked team would be Penn State because you would still give them a home playoff game. So Penn State would be number eight, and the nine seed would be Tennessee. That's how I think that they would rank those teams. Again, Georgia would have the three losses now. Now, could you make an argument that they would flip Ohio State and Georgia?

Maybe, but they would definitely be, Ohio State and Georgia would definitely be above Penn State and Tennessee. And I think that Tennessee would get ranked behind Penn State because they're not going to penalize Penn State for making it to the Big Ten championship game when Tennessee did not go to the SEC championship game. So you would reward the Nittany Lions in that respect by, giving them the home game, but those two teams look like they are on a collision course to play in the first round of the college football playoff, which leaves just a couple of spots. And so here we go. The 10 seed is Indiana. They're already in, and Indiana is the 10 seed. And that leaves the last team. And here's the deal, folks. And we talked about this yesterday on the rankings reaction show. We've got one spot, two teams. SMU loses to Clemson based on my picks. And then, they are in an argument with Alabama for the last spot in the playoff.

And I just want to revisit some of those arguments. Bama, their strength of schedule, far greater than SMU. 17th in the country versus SMU's being 75. I think that just honoring the fact that they got to their conference championship is not enough. Because in this era of super conferences, not every path to a conference championship game is equal. So you've got to evaluate the path. And as I've said already on this show and what I talked about at length yesterday in the rankings reaction is that SMU's path was very favorable. And that's to put it lightly.

They played eight conference games. Six of those eight games in conference were against teams that were at or below 500 in conference play, which means that they only played two teams, two all year in conference, that were above 500 ACCC teams. That's just not tough enough. So in my estimation, you can't just blindly reward the fact that they were in a conference championship game because of that path. It's just far different. And then you start to think of the fact that they had just lost to Clemson in this case because I've got Clemson in and winning the ACC championship game, which means that SMU, the two best teams that they would have faced all year were BYU and Clemson.

Those would be their two losses. They wouldn't have anything close to a ranked win. they wouldn't have anything close to the wins that Alabama would have. Alabama would have three ranked wins at that point. They would still have a win against Georgia at that point. I think in a direct comparison that SMU is going to lose the argument to Alabama, I really do. That's why I told you yesterday in the rankings reaction that Alabama was going to be in regardless,

and there they are as the 11 seed going to Columbus to face the Ohio State Buckeyes. So this is a projection based on my picks. in that conference championship game weekend. And then how I think that the committee is going to see them based on those results, a Georgia loss, a Penn State loss, an Iowa state loss. You know, like, this is wild, folks. I think that it's going to be crazy because here's what is going to be really crazy, is that the biggest point of contention next Sunday night

is going to be between who gets the same. six and who gets the seven seed. I have it as Georgia behind Ohio State. Now, it could very well be flipped. And maybe they'll try to make it so that Ohio State wouldn't play Indiana. Maybe Indiana would slip behind Alabama. I'm not sure. Would you try to avoid like Georgia playing Alabama and Ohio State playing Indiana

and just getting rematches in the first round? Maybe you would avoid that. But I think that the biggest point of contention will be six and seven. And the reason being because look who they're going to play in the second round. You're either going to get Texas, the SEC champion, based on my predictions, or Boise. So the sixth seed is highly coveted. The five seed, highly coveted. And that five seed absolutely looks like Notre Dame. The only way that Notre Dame doesn't get the five seed is if Penn State somehow beats Oregon or Georgia somehow beats Texas. Those teams probably would stay above

Notre Dame. Certainly Oregon would, maybe Texas would. So if it goes chalk and Oregon wins and Texas wins, Notre Dame's absolutely the five seed. They're going to play the 12 and then they're going to get the four and the four at this point. Looks like it's going to be the Big 12 champion. I think it's going to be wild. It's going to be fantastic. And I'm here for it. So again, this is based on my predictions in the conference championship games. This is how I think

that the committee is going to rank teams on Sunday night. And this is the playoff that I think that we're going to get come Sunday night and what we'll be talking about next Monday morning. So there you have it. Folks, enjoy the games this weekend. They're going to be fantastic games. We've got early signing period that's ramping up. We're going to have a lot of news on that. We're going to have the playoff. So next week is going to be fast and furious right here on the Joel Clatchew. Remember to follow us on social media wherever you like the social media at Joel Clat Show. And rate and review us wherever you're listening. Follow us and subscribe on the YouTube channel, make sure to hit that notification button and leave a comment below

and enjoy your week, everybody. Have a blessed week and enjoy the football.