The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Joel Klatt’s new College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction and Week 6 Picks

Episode Date: October 3, 2024

After going 5-1 against the spread last week, FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt makes his picks in the biggest games of the College Football weekend. He begins by discussing the game he will be calling on Big Noon Saturday between UCLA and #7 Penn State. He breaks down the ranked matchup in the SEC this weekend as Top-10 Missouri heads to #25 Texas A&M. Klatt then makes picks for some intriguing matchups in the Big Ten – first the National Championship rematch between #10 Michigan and Washington then #3 Ohio State’s contest with Iowa and also the Rutgers-Nebraska meeting. He also discusses the game between #15 Clemson and Florida State and considers whether the Tigers are going to sink the ‘Noles to a new low. Klatt then makes his prediction for what the 12-team Playoff Bracket will look like now that he’s seen the first month of the season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Now let's get to this October version of the college football playoff. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. I believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Hey, what's up, everybody? Welcome into the program.

This is a Joel Clatt show. I am Joel Clatt. This show is presented by Hampton by Hilton. Thanks to them, as always. We've got a loaded show for you. as always on a Thursday, we've got picks and I've got my picks for you. And a very special little experiment here at the end of the show. I'm going to go through an October edition of a playoff bracket.

So let's take what we've learned over the first month of the season. And as we now go into October, let's create a new playoff bracket. So I'm going to give you my predictions for the 12 team playoff that's coming up at the end of the show. Before we get started, just remember like review us, rate us, rate us, wherever you get your podcast. Follow us on social media, please, if you would, wherever you like to social media. So it doesn't matter if you're a TikToker or you're on the IG. Just dated myself. That sounded awful. Regardless, at Joel Clatch Show is where you find us. And then when you're on YouTube, which you've got to get over to YouTube, make sure to subscribe to the show. Like the videos, leave a comment below, all of that stuff. Okay, let's get into some of these picks.

And by the way, before we get into this, me and the staff this morning had a bit of a disagreement here at the Joel Clat Show. And so I'm going to need you to settle the agreement in the comments below. This is why you have to go watch on YouTube or go to YouTube, subscribe so that you can comment below. Number one, your comments are loud and clear. We will be doing a schematic series at some point. So let us figure out how we want to do that. I will be doing kind of a football 101 on YouTube, so we're going to do that. That's going to be awesome.

And I can't wait, by the way, it's one of my favorite things to talk about the actual schematics of the game. So that's number one. So thank you for your feedback on that. I need more feedback right now. Is Top Ramen a soup or a pasta? I, like, it's clearly a pasta. It's better without all the water or broth.

If there's broth in it, to me, it's just chicken soup. Like, I'm not, I don't want a soup. I want a pasta dish. When I make top ramen, I drain the water, and then you put the flavoring in, and then it's delicious. And everyone here seems to think that I'm some sort of crazy person, and you're supposed to leave the water in there,

but then all you're doing is flavoring the water. I don't want broth. I want ramen. So leave a comment below. Is top ramen a pasta or a soup? Because it can't be both, and then we'll settle this right here on YouTube. Let's get into the pick, shall we?

Hey, by the way, a bit of a comeback last week, and I'm very excited about it. We were 5 and 1 last week against the spread. What you hear, if you're listening, is just a slow clap for the show. That's all it was. Just a slow clap for the show. Five and one last week, we were up to 16 and 11 on the season, just to shade under 60% against the spread. So let's keep it going.

We got a hot streak, all right? A player on a streak respects the streak. So let's go. Another movie quote, those that are not old enough, I feel for you. you. Let's start with my game. This will not be a pick, but UCLA at Penn State. I'll be in Happy Valley there in State College. Penn State hosts UCLA. They're making that first cross-country trip out to State College. UCLA, by the way, playing their third straight top 20 opponent, LSU, Oregon, and now Penn State. So my goodness, like Deshawn Foster, not an easy schedule that

they've had so far. And it's been a really tough season for him as they've tried to get this thing going at UCLA. The offense is not putting up points. The defense has played decent. I'll be honest, watching on film, they fight hard. They play decent. But Penn State is coming off that impressive win against Illinois. Illinois came in with all that momentum and then really didn't do anything against Penn State. And Penn State offensively, in particular running the ball, I thought was really solid. That run game in general has been very good this year. Nick Singleton and Ketron Allen. They're averaging 174 yards per game as a duo. You've got the Tyler Warren. If you're watching on YouTube, you're watching him go up and over right now.

They'll put them at quarterback at times and do some creative things with him. I love that. And then they can also throw the ball in particular downfield, much better than they did a year ago. That's kind of the effect that their new offensive coordinator, Andy Kodlnicki, has been having. And then it comes down to their defense. And their defense, to me, is getting better and better and better every single week. So Manny Diaz was their coordinator last year. He moved on.

He's the head coach at Duke. shout out to Mani Diaz and the Blue Devils, you're 5-0. Tom Allen, the former Indiana head coach, comes in. He's a defensive guy. He's the defensive coordinator for Penn State. Penn State's defense has always been very athletic, long, fast, and aggressive. And that's exactly what he's been doing. And he's got a player that fits that mold in Abdul Carter.

He's one of the best defenders in the country. He had his best game of the season last week against Illinois. Two sacks, eight QB pressures. So Abdul-Carter, he wears the same. sticks, as they call them at Penn State number 11, which obviously harkens back to a lot of great defenders in Penn State lore. I'm looking forward to this one. I love going to State College, and so we'll be there as UCLA takes on Penn State. Penn State is number seven in the country. All right, let's get to some of the previews and picks, folks. Again, five and one last week,

five and one last week. I will say, we did pick Illinois to cover at Penn State, which they ended up covering. I believe that the spread was seven. and a half in that game. But it's 21-7. I'm in the airplane, flipping back and forth between that game and the Alabama-Georgia game in commercials. And late in that game, it's 21-7. And Luke Altmire from Illinois gets stripped of the football. And the football's laying on the ground. And I'm like, if they scoop and score right here and if Penn State covers after giving these picks and I have this one more pick to go five and one, I don't want to go four and two. wants to go four and two. That doesn't feel as good as five and one. And all of a sudden,

there's a Penn State recovery. And I'm like, no, I felt like I was going to jump out of the plane at that point. And that's when I knew I, I have never bet a penny of my own money on any game. And I probably will never bet because these are just picks that I'm giving on this show. And I'm losing control in an airplane over these spreads at the end of games. And now I get it. I totally get it. Okay. Let's get into this. Lone ranked matchup of the week is Missouri and Texas A&M. So Missouri comes in as a top 10 team, although let's face it, are they?

We'll see. A&M comes in ranked, although should they be? We'll see. A&M is favored at home. I believe that that has ticked up to two and a half. I had it earlier in the week at one and a half. I believe it's ticked up to two and a half, A&M.

And here's the thing that I come to in this game is that Missouri has shown I think that their baseline is far under a top 10 team. Okay. I think a lot of people looked at the way that they finished last year and the schedule that they had and that they can presume that they're going to have a very good year record-wise. And yes, that's true. But as I've been saying on this show,

and this is, you know, everyone's like, oh, you're a Missouri hater. Not true at all. I think Missouri's record and ranking are going to be better than the team. and I think that starts to be borne out in this game on the road. If they can get through A&M, by the way, with the rest of their schedule, then they're going to have eyes on the playoff because all they're going to have left

from a difficulty perspective is at Alabama, which is obviously horrific. And then 19 Oklahoma, which that game looks vastly different now with the struggles that Oklahoma has had specifically on the offensive side. So now Missouri is sitting there. They've struggled through games against Boston College and won it, Vanderbilt, and won it. All of those games at home. This is their first time on the road. The first road game of the season is always more difficult than any other game that you're going to play, pending the opponent. A&M, meanwhile, coming up off of that win against Arkansas,

remember that one's played at Jerry's World in Dallas. And Marcel Reed, he got his third straight start at quarterback in place of Wigman, and he's been pretty good. Okay. Now, there's some question about whether Connor Wigman is going to come in and play in this game, and he's supposedly a game time decision, according to Mike Elko. But I would think that Elko would keep riding what has worked. You know, if it ain't broke, don't fix it kind of a deal. Connor Wigman did not play well against Notre Dame, and he's gotten banged up, and now Reed has kind of solidified things.

Now, you might disagree with me on that, but I think that his legs have been a real impact this year. He's gone over 80 rush yards and two of the last three starts. And so I would ride with Reed. Now Missouri, Nate Noel, he transferred in from App State. He's done a nice job filling the shoes of Cody Schrader. He had 190 yards rushing in their last game against Vandy. So that's something to pay attention to.

And then you just have to understand Brady Cook and Luther Burden form one of the best quarterback wide receiver tundoms in the entire sport. So at any point, they could kind of take over the game. Now, that being said, on the road and with the way that Missouri has looked, and the way that I think the rest of their season is going to pan out, I like A&M in this one at home. I think that they learned a ton losing that game to Notre Dame, winning a semi-tight one against Arkansas,

getting more solid quarterback play and solidifying their identity. At home, I like A&M 2824. So that's a cover for the Aggies in College Station. How about a national championship game rematch? That's right. So Michigan heads out to the West Coast. they're going to the Pacific Northwest to face Washington. And Washington is actually favored in this game.

So Michigan, based on the AP poll, is the top 10 team. Washington unranked. And yet Washington is favored in this one by two and a half games. Again, that national championship game rematch, although none of the people that participated in that game or really meant anything to that game are around, other than maybe Sharon Moore and a few other guys, maybe Donovan, you could say,

the defensive tackles from Michigan. Washington in their last game really should have beat Rutgers. You know, if you didn't watch that, this is kind of how it played out. Washington outgains Rutgers by 222 yards and they had no turnovers. And you're like, how in the world do you lose a game when you do that? Again, they outgained Rutgers. They were plus 222 in total offense and they didn't turn it over. How?

Well, this is how. They had a blocked field goal. but had a player run onto the field from the sidelines, which then negated it, gave Ruckers the ball back with a free first down, and then Ruckers capitalizes with a touchdown. Washington missed three field goals, including the potential game tying one as time expired. They failed on fourth down twice,

and they had five red zone drives with only 10 points to show for it, one touchdown and one field goal. That's how you lose a game. So this team is much better than a team that's just like, oh, they lost at Ruckers. And obviously Rutgers is 4-0 and much better under Greg Shiano, but like, it's just a better team than that. They should not have lost that game, and they did. Meanwhile, Michigan has eeked out back-to-back three-point wins over USC and Minnesota. They almost blew those leads in both of those games in the second half. And the question becomes,

can Michigan continue to win with minimal to no downfield passing? That's a question. Their run game is solid. We know that. Okay, Kaleel Mullings has been really good the last couple of weeks. He's probably the most reliant part of their team at this point, other than maybe those defensive tackles. My question for Sharon Moore and Kirk Campbell and this Michigan offense would be like, how do we put Alex Orgy in a better position to succeed? At this point and to this point over those two games, and listen, he beat USC, which is a good team, and they got the win over Minnesota.

That's nothing to scoff at. However, there is an element of kind of square peg round hole that's going on with this Michigan offense. Namely, I'd love to see them lean totally into Orgy's ability to be dynamic as a runner. We don't see a lot of the designed quarterback run game that we see from like, let's say, Alabama and Jalen Milro. You saw how effective that was in creating explosive plays on offense, controlling the edges of the defense, when Alabama raced out to that lead against Georgia on Saturday night.

We haven't seen that style from Michigan. What Michigan has done is plugged Alex Orgy in and they said, okay, we're going to run this offense, our offense, and he's going to be our quarterback. I think it needs to expand. I think that they need to, if he's going to be your quarterback and you're having a hard time throwing the football, while developing the passing game,

you've got to lean into him being dynamic. I'd love to see Alex Orgy get 10 to 12 carries a game. I'd love to see Colell Mullings get 14 to 18 carries a game. and Edwards somewhere around that 8 to 12 carries a game. I think that's where they would be best in the run game. Now you're talking about a significant run game to stop with three guys that are very difficult to do so. Meanwhile, Washington's defense, they did hold Ruckers under 300 yards last week,

but they did allow Kyle Munungai is how you pronounce. Ruckers running back, Kyle Munungi, he ran for 132 on 25 carries. I think Will Rogers, the Washington quarterback, is a pretty good player. If Jed Fish can protect him, I think that they'll be able to throw the football, which USC and Minnesota did in the second half against Michigan. Will Rogers, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions. I like Washington in this game, guys. I really do. The second half of each of the last two games for Michigan, the fact that they have no margin for air, the fact that Washington played a very good game but just wasn't clean at the right times against Rutgers. They can clean that up.

I think Washington wins. I think that they win this 24-17, and that's a cover for the Huskies at home in a national championship game rematch. Next game, Iowa at Ohio State. So Ohio State is ranked third in the country. They're a 19 and a half point favorite in this game. Iowa was off last week as they kind of prepared for this trip to Columbus. And this begins, this middle section of the Ohio State schedule is a lot more difficult than the first third of their schedule. This is where we're going to find everything we need to know about Ohio State. We're going to find out. And up to this point, correctly, everybody around the country is like, well, Ohio State hasn't played anybody.

You know what? I do think Michigan State is better than people give them credit, but fair enough on that critique. And now we're going to see a bit of a stretch in this Ohio State schedule where we will see them tested. Ohio State has not lost a Big Ten game to a team not named Michigan since 2018, by the way. That loss was to Purdue. Ohio State, guys, they're really good. Number one scoring defense in the country, number four scoring offense in the country. My question is, Iowa is so one-dimensional. Will they be able to move the ball on this Ohio State defense? When you give a defense like this,

a team that is one-dimensional, and it's like, okay, they can load up on Caleb John. the running back for Iowa, who is the second leading rusher in the country at 171 yards per game, I still think like, okay, this defense will be geared up in Ohio State, and that defense should be able to at least slow down or stop Caleb Johnson. There's just not enough of a threat on offense for Iowa outside of that. Remember, Ohio State is the number one scoring defense. They've got the number three rush defense in all of college football. That's going to be very difficult.

don't think Iowa is going to be able to move the ball with any sort of, I would say, consistency. Maybe they do it a couple of times and maybe they get a turnover because obviously their defense can force turnovers. Will Howard has thrown interception in back-to-back games. Maybe they create a short field to get a score or two. But I just don't see them doing anything more than that. So then it becomes the Ohio State offense against Phil Parker's defense. And now we start to really get a test and we get to see what can this offense actually be? Because as we know, Phil Parker's defense for Iowa is always one of the best in college football. I think it's again, that same certainly style of defense, but it'll be that test for Ohio State. Now they've got all these

threats all over. The run game with Quinn Sean and Trevion out of the backfield, Jeremiah Smith, I think he might be the best player in college football. I know that sounds crazy, but I think he might be. You've got Abuca out of the slot. You've got Carnell Tate. He's no slouch. He's basically like their third wide receiver, which he'd be a number one receiver on almost every other team in the country. Smith is so dynamic.

He's got 20 touches of the football this season. He's a true freshman, folks. 20 touches of the football, six of them have wound up in the end zone. It's remarkable the effectiveness that he's had. The biggest question I'm going to have for Ohio State in this game is Will Howard, and that test of Phil Parker's, defense. Any tip or overthrow always winds up with an interception. He's thrown back-to-back interceptions in subsequent weeks. Iowa's defense is yet to allow 90 yards on the ground in any game

this season. They're the number four rushing defense in the country. And yet, I think this is the game where everyone starts to think to themselves, okay, this Ohio State team really is one of the best, if not the best team in the country. I like Ohio State getting after Iowa. This one's at home. I like them covering the 19 and a half. A big one, win for the Buckeyes, 42 to 10. I think this offense goes crazy. I think it's too much for Iowa to stop. Iowa can't do anything offensively and it's 42 to 10. Clemson at Florida State. Oh, my goodness. This looked like it was going to be a great game in the preseason. And now it doesn't at all. And we've got Clemson. They're all the sudden my new favorite. Like I'm all of a sudden just all

aboard Clemson. After that Georgia game, they're scoring 55 points per game. That's the number one scoring offense since week one in all of college football. Meanwhile, you've got Florida State with DJU. He's not playing, so he doesn't get a rematch against his former team. They're going to start Brock Glenn. And folks, let's face it, like Brock Glenn has started two games for Florida State last season after Jordan Travis got hurt. He did not play well in either of them. The 16 to 6 win versus Louisville in the ACC title game, then the 63 to 3 lost to Georgia in the originable. Like, I'm sorry, but Brock Glenn is not going to cut it against Clemson. Florida State's offense has been horrible, whether it's been DJU or anybody else.

They've scored 20 points in only one game this season, and it was in their opener against Georgia Tech. They can't run the ball. They're 131st in rushing and haven't protected the passer well either. They're 12 sacks allowed already. That took nine games to get to that mark last season. Yet to reach 300 yards in a game all season long, and it's not like they're playing the Monsters of the Midway, folks. remember this is Georgia Tech and Memphis and SMU and like their one win is against Cal. Cal had the lead in the fourth quarter. And here comes Clemson. Their run game is doing well with Phil Mafa.

He's been better since the Georgia game. Mafa went for over 100 yards in two of the last three games. Cade Clubnick is playing better. The offense is getting better. This Clemson team, as I said on Monday, they're more of a slow boil. They did not play well early. They're playing better and better and better every single. week. Meanwhile, Florida State is a disaster zone. So the 14 and a half that Clemson is favored by

is not enough. It's not enough. This Florida State team is a shell of what it was a year ago. A shell. They're staring a two-win season down the barrel. And I think Clemson hammers Florida State. I am Clemson covering all day long. I think their offense continues to play well. Florida State's offense can't do anything. I think I'm being generous here with this score. Clemson wins 4817. That's what the margins should be. 14 and a half is not enough. I saw that line. I was shocked.

Clemson's playing vastly better than that. And Florida State is playing vastly worse than that. So I've got a huge Tigers win 4817. Ruckers at Nebraska. Nebraska is favored by 6.5. Rutgers has that 4 and 0 record. But as I told you in that rundown in the Michigan, Washington game, they did not play well against Washington and ended up winning the game.

Credit Greg Shiano, because they did some things in terms of game situation and taking advantage of the opposition's mistakes that allowed them to win that game. But this is not a team that I think is just going to go on the road. Like there's Rutgers is 4 and O, I think that comes to an end. Nebraska is 4 and 1. This is a huge game for them in terms of the future of their season. Rutgers, they're the 12th-ranked rushing offense in the country behind Kyle Munangai, but I do think Nebraska is going to be solid in their defense.

They've defended the run pretty well this year, 85 yards allowed per game. That's 15th in the country. So a bit of strength against strength. Illinois did kind of wear them down, but Rutgers is not Illinois. I think Illinois is a better team than Rutgers. Ruckers defense has not defended the run very well this year. they're giving up 173 yards per game. That's the second worst than the Big 10.

So now if Nebraska can run the football at all, then Rayola can throw it when he wants to and not when he has to. And he's already been good for the Huskers this year. He's going to be facing a Rutgers defense that gave over 500 yards to Washington. So you see where I'm going with is like Nebraska at home, six and a half point favorites against a team that is their record is probably better than what they are. Give me Nebraska in this one.

I think Nebraska wins this one handily. I think Rutgers is going to struggle to score. I think Nebraska wins this 31, 17, and the Huskers cover at home and get back on track and they would be a 5-1 team after that win. Okay. Those are all the picks. If you want me to just review them just very quickly. Okay, so here's what I had.

I had A&M covering the 2.5. They went 28, 24 over Missouri. I have Washington covering their favorite, they're favored by 2.5. They win 2417 over Michigan. Ohio State covers at home. It's a 19.5 point spread. I've got them 42 to 10. Clemson Hammers Florida State.

They're 14.5 point favorites. I've got them over Florida State 4817. And Rutgers, Nebraska. I've got the Huskers winning this one, 3117 as 6.5 point favorites. And they cover. Okay. So now let's get to this October version of the college football playoff. I've been excited to do this.

I want to revisit it every month. So we'll do this again at the beginning of November. We'll have a much more clear picture. But before I get to what I now say is the playoff, let's go back to the preseason prediction of what we said for our playoff before the season. So before the season, I had Ohio State number one, Georgia, 2. I had Utah 3, Miami 4. At 5, I had Notre Dame, 6, Texas, 7.

in Oregon, eight Penn State, nine Ole Miss, I had 10 Alabama, 11 Michigan, and 12, Boise State. So that's what I had before the season. And obviously, a lot of that is going to change. There were some things that I liked in that and some things that I do not like in that. So let's start just going 1 to 12. Let's fill out a new bracket based on what we know about the college football season and what we've seen from these teams to this point into October. at number one, because I believe that the SEC champ is almost assuredly going to get the number one seed with the strength in that conference at the top, I think Texas wins the SEC and gets the number one overall seed in the playoff. I think they likely beat Alabama in the SEC

championship game, and so Texas, Alabama, and the SEC championship game. At number two, I've got the Big Ten champion, Ohio State. I've got them beating Oregon in that game, and so Ohio State is still right up there at number two in the country. Now, I would still have them winning the national championship. I'm not going to play this bracket out, but this is just for the seating purposes of, listen, I think we all know and understand now based on what's going on in the SEC after that game Saturday night between Alabama and Georgia, if Texas wins the SEC or anybody that wins the SEC is likely going to get the number

one spot in the CFP. That brings you to three and four, and that's going to be for the Big 12 champ in the ACC champ. So who's going to be the better champ out of those two conferences? Well, based on the way that those two conferences have played, it's going to be the ACC. I've got Clemson and Miami playing in the ACC championship game, and I've got Clemson winning that game. Again, the slow boil continues, folks. At this point, they're 220 degrees. They're a boiling pot of water. They can power a locomotive. Clemson is getting better every week. And I've got them winning the ACC over Miami and getting that third seed. Then you go to

the big 12, and that's a little bit more murky. We've had a Kansas State loss, Utah loss, Oklahoma State has lost twice. Those were the three teams that we really thought were like the cream of the crop and the conference. So now you've got at least in conference, Arizona is still unbeaten in conference, although they lost to Kansas State. Just remember that was a non-league game. I know just keep reminding ourselves of that. You've got Iowa State that's undefeated. You've got BYU you that's undefeated. You've got Colorado that still is undefeated in the Big 12. So there's a lot that can go on. So at this point, I've just got to say, who do I think has looked best so far this season? I think that's Kansas State.

So Kansas State gets my number four seed. I think Kansas State wins the Big 12 over Iowa State in that game and Kansas State gets the number four seed. So then we get into the at large. And the reason I told you which teams lost those conference championship games is because then that will influence where they're seeded right here. With Alabama's win over Georgia, even if they were to lose the SEC championship game, Alabama would be number five. So Alabama is the five seed in my playoff here in the beginning of October, and Oregon losing the Big Ten championship game would be the sixth seed. So Oregon gets slotted in right there at number six. There's the ducks. Now you get outside of who lost the conference championship games, and I'll get to more in that in a little bit. So Miami and Iowa

state, they take a back seat because now we're going to have some teams that we know are going to have massive resumes and quality of resume and sentiment, narrative, all this stuff. So which team fits that bill the most? Georgia. Georgia at seven. I think that Georgia beats Tennessee and gets that seven spot, even if they were to lose to Texas on the road. I see Georgia going 10 and 2. They lose to Texas on the road, but beat Tennessee,

and a 10 and 2 Georgia team is easily number 7. You see where we get here. It's like Oregon at that point might have two losses, maybe, but maybe they had beat Ohio State and then lose in the conference championship game. So they get that six spot. Alabama beat Georgia. They get that five spot. So now Georgia lands at number 7,

which leaves the team that they beat also going 10 and 2 with one of those losses to Georgia, Tennessee. So now Tennessee is the eight seed. So you see how these start to fall into place and these dominoes start to fall into place. At this point now, I think Penn State enters the radar. And Penn State, to me, easily could be an 11 and 1 team, but let's just say that they're even 10 and 2.

This is a perfect spot to slot Penn State right there at number 9. And now it gets really interesting because it's pretty easy to get to 9. And I think most of you, now, whether you agree with my slotting or not, like, I think that you can agree with this. You might disagree with who I chose to win the ACC or the Big 12. But as far as our top two seeds and then to nine, I think we all kind of understand like, yeah, these are probably the best teams right here. So now it's going to come down to how do we think the season is actually going to play out? And who will we be deciding between for these last three spots?

Obviously, there's a group of five here. So it really comes down to two spots. There's two spots left, and here's who I'm deciding between. These two spots come down to USC, Miami, and LSU. And let me tell you how I arrived at that. I see Missouri losing twice. I told you that I think they lose to A&M. I think they lose another time.

And then with that schedule, their 10 and 2 is just not going to enter into the equation. That schedule has no power to it. And so Missouri, in this instance, would not be in a position where they would be considered. Ole Miss the same way. I think Ole Miss is losing two more times. And at that point, they're not being considered. So that's why it comes down to USC, in this case, would be coming off a win against Notre Dame. This is why Notre Dame is not being considered.

Miami who just lost the ACC championship game and LSU. I think LSU, I expect them to beat Ole Miss in that night game at Death Valley. I expect them to beat A&M on the road, beat Oklahoma at home, and lose to Alabama. So for me, LSU is a 10 and two team, seven and one in the SEC.

Seven and one in the SEC, to me, get you in. USC, even if they lose to Penn State next week, even if they lose to Penn State. Then they can run the table. They can essentially have a play-in game against Notre Dame, that final week of the season. If they win that, they'll be coming off a nice little win streak. And then you've got this LSU team that's 10 and 2, 7 and 1 in SEC play, and USC play, and

USC and USC and the other spot. USC and LSU, because USC beat LSU. LSU would be going. Seven and one in SEC play, they're going. But you have to put USC in that position because they beat LSU the opening week of the season. So in this scenario, SC plays Georgia at the 10 seed, and LSU goes at the 11 seed and would play Oregon. That's how I got there. I see Miami stubbing their toe at some point. The reason I left Miami out is because I see them stubbing their toe at some point.

That game last Friday night should tell us something about Miami's floor, which is they'll lose a game that they shouldn't at some point. And then go to the ACC championship game and Clemson beats them, and now 11 and 2 Miami, folks, look at their schedule. They would have no quality wins at that point. So 11 and 2 Miami, 10 and 2 Missouri, 9 and 3 Ole Miss, 10 and 2 Notre Dame. They just don't have the quality wins to overtake these teams that are in.

Because in this scenario, SC would have wins over Notre Dame and LSU. LSU would have wins over Ole Miss. They would beat A&M. They would beat Oklahoma. They would have better wins. So that's where we land and then we get to the group of five. And as you know, I'm a big fan of Ashton Genty with Boise State. I think it's going to be tough for UNLV to beat them.

I think that the Mountain West Winner should go to the playoff, which means Boise State gets the 12 seed, and there's my 12 team bracket as we enter October. That's how I got to that. I really love doing this experiment. I love thinking about how many teams are alive, how many teams feel like they're going to be playing games this month in October and in November with actual playoff implications.

And just to review, my first four out are going to be Miami, Notre Dame, Missouri, and then that fourth one would have been Iowa State, the loser of that Big 12 championship game. So there it is, the October playoff bracket. We'll revisit this in November. Leave a comment below. What do you think? What did I get right? What did I get wrong?

Is it LSU? Do you think LSU is going to continue to play that well? Do we think Missouri is going to stub their toe this week against A&M? Tell me in the comments below. And again, we'll revisit in November. Enjoy the weekend of games, everybody. Remember, every time that we feel like it's not a great slate of games, upsets. So keep that in mind.

Keep that in mind. Something drastic is going to happen this weekend, and that's why we love college football. Folks, have a blessed weekend. Can't wait to do this again. on Monday when we're back with you.