The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Klatt’s College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction

Episode Date: October 29, 2025

As we enter November, FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt makes his picks for who will be in the Conference Championship Games and who will make it into the 12-Team Playoff Bracket. He considers if anyone can keep Ohio State and Texas A&M from running the table in the Big Ten and SEC respectively. Will Notre Dame be able to come back from an 0-2 start to the season to grab a spot in the Playoff field? Are Alabama & Georgia locks to make it into the CFP? He predicts one of the Big Ten leaders to stumble in November and find themselves in a fight to make the Playoff altogether. Klatt also reveals which teams currently in the Top-10 he sees failing to make the field. 0:00-1:37 Intro1:38-2:49 Klatt’s conference championship game picks & projected playoff bracket2:50-7:59 Projected conference champs8:00-22:15 Projected playoff bracket22:16-29:09 Joel dives into the mailbag Use my code for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/KLATT10Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $20 discount. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Put the quarter final games on campus. Give these teams the reward that they earned during the regular season. The Bulls are like blockbuster. The playoff is like Netflix. But in this model, there's a lot of new blood in the college football playoff. It could be very fun down the stretch. There's a lot of games that mean everything. It's been a great thing.

What's up everybody? Welcome into the Joel Clatt show. I am Joel Clatt. This show is brought to you by Graduate by Hill. We thank them for their support as always. Hey, if you have not done so, please go subscribe to the show on YouTube. That would be awesome. Jump in the comments down below.

I was down there again on Monday. That was really fun chatting it up with all of you after Monday show. So thank you for that. If you haven't followed us on social media, you can do that as well. Wherever you like to social media, we're out there. We've got all of our content out there. Agile Clat Show is where you can follow us out on social media. All right.

we've got another really fun Wednesday here. This is the last Wednesday before we start getting into reacting to playoff rankings. And so what we've been trying to do during here, like the month of October, is bring you guys like fun content in the form of lists or bracket projections. I gave you a preseason bracket projection. I gave you an October bracket projection. So today, last Wednesday show before rankings come out, what are we doing? Bracket projection.

That's right. This is our November bracket projection. I can't wait for this. This is going to be more accurate than the two previous. Listen, there were some hurt feelings with the two previous, including my own, because I had Clemson winning the national championship in my first bracket projection. And that was, you know, probably not smart. So that's awesome. But obviously things have changed. There's so many teams that are in this thing that we didn't even realize we're going to be in this thing. so we got to talk about what's going to go down in the month of November. So here's what I did. I decided to start to play out, you know, assign wins and losses to a lot of these teams in the top end of each conference and the group of six and start to look at like what could this look like here at the end of the year as far as records go,

automatic bids versus at large bids. Because remember, obviously the four champions from the Power 4 leagues, they get automatic bids. the top group of six champion, they get a bid. So what is it going to look like? Well, here we go. Here we go. All right, this is going to be how I see the bracket looking on Selection Sunday here a month away. Let's start in the conference championship games.

I always feel like that's a great place to start and then work backwards from there. Top five champions are going to get auto bids. So here we go. In the Big Ten, I started playing this thing out. And I know that there's going to be fan bases upset with this, but I predict. an Indiana, Ohio State, Big Ten championship game, both of them at 12 and 0, 8 and 0, or excuse me, 9 and 0 in the Big 10. And I think at this point, I'm just going to go with the team that's the number one team in the country. So Ohio State were to win that game.

Let's just say that, project it out. So Ohio State beats Indiana, which means Ohio State would be 13 and O, Indiana would be 12 and 1. The SEC, I really like A&M right now. The way that they're playing, the rest of their schedule, they're going to be favored in the rest of their game. So let's go 12 and 0, 8-0, A&M, 12-0 meaning their total record, 8-0 meaning their conference record, against if you look at their schedule, the way that they're playing, even though then I know that they've got a couple of flaws here and there. Let's say Bama were to run the month of November, and they're 11 and 1. They would be 8-0 in the SEC at that point, and they would face Texas A&M in the SEC championship game.

So let's go A&M against Bama. I'm going to go with A&M in that game. So A&M is 13 and O. Ohio State is 13 and O. You got Indiana at 12 and 1, and you would have Alabama at 11 and 2 as an SEC championship game participant, but they were not the champion.

Now, in the Big 12, this one gets kind of crazy. There's a lot of scenarios in the Big 12. I think it's one of the leagues that could go totally haywire, including the ACC. We'll get to that in a little bit. But in the Big 12, let's just say sake of argument that Texas Tech were to run the table and beat BYU.

So both Texas Tech and BYU would be 11 and 1 at that point at the end of the year. And they would each be 7 and 1 in the conference. And likely, pending some of these other games like I'm talking about in the wonkiness, let's just say Texas Tech, BYU face each other as 11 and 1 foes in Dallas in the Big 12 championship game. Now, that would mean Tech would beat BYU in the regular season in their upcoming game. They would be healthier than Skyler Gil Howard might be back for that big 12th. championship game, possibly. I'm going to go with Tech winning that one. They would be a 12 and 1 Big 12 champion, which would leave BYU as an 11 and 2 team non-champion. Now we get to the ACC.

Georgia Tech is undefeated right now, and their toughest remaining game, not in the ACC when they take on Georgia later this year. That's their last game of the year. Let's just say sake of argument, Georgia wins that game. Georgia Tech is 11 and 1, but undefeated in the ACC. They're in championship game. Now, there are a lot of scenarios of teams that could back themselves into playing in the ACC championship game, including a wild one with Virginia. And I know Virginia has played well, and they're only a one-lost team right now, but they've got kind of a really wonky scheduling thing that we'll get to later in the program, and I'll share with you. Based on some of these schedules, though, when you're looking at teams like Virginia or Louisville,

I think Miami, if they're able to win out, is still going to be the other team of the ACC championship game. So in this model, Georgia Tech, excuse me, would face Miami, both of them being 11 and 1. I think Miami is the better team. So I've got Miami winning the ACC championship. They would be a 12-1 champion, and Georgia Tech would be an 11-2 non-champion. Then you get to the highest ranked group of 6 champion. And here's the thing. The American Conference is likely, their champion, likely going to be the group of six member in the college football playoff. It's the best conference in the group of six. They've got four viable teams up there. Navy is undefeated right now. You've got South Florida. You got Tulane. You have Memphis.

Now Memphis was able to just beat South Florida. Now Memphis and Tulane still have to play. Navy's got the toughest schedule of those remaining teams down the stretch. One of them, including a lot, non-league game against Notre Dame. So a lot is still going to go on here in the group of six and more specifically in the American Conference. I think even with the loss to Memphis, South Florida has a good chance to get back into that championship game. And if they're able to do that, I think that they win that game. I don't see Navy making it through their November.

They've been fortunate up to this point to being unbeaten. So I'm going to go away from Navy. I see Memphis possibly losing to a Tulane team that is a really good team, which would put South Florida in the American championship against Tulane. I think South Florida were to win that game, they would get the automatic bid from the group of six. So there you have it. So we've got our champions there. We've got Ohio State as a champion, A&M as a champion, tech as a champion.

I should clarify, Texas Tech is a champion. Miami as a champion out of the ACC, and then South Florida, a champion out of the U.S. of the group of six. Then you start to get into seeding, all right? So here we go. Let's start seeding these things out. And then you'll start to see some of these at-large teams and kind of how I assigned some of these wins and losses.

All right. So seeding these, I would start with number one. And if Ohio State, who's number one now, were to go 13 and 0, they will be the number one seed. So Ohio State is going to be our number one seed. They're the Big Ten champ. There they are. Now, as an undefeated SEC,

champ, this team could absolutely overtake Ohio State. But at this point, Ohio State is number one. We'll see what the committee thinks, in particular about the strength of schedule and some of those wins that Texas A&M has. But A&M in this model would be the number two seed, and there they are. Number three seed, I think the three and four seed are going to be the two teams that were able to get to the Big Ten and SEC championship games, but fell short. Their resumes are going to be outstanding. their strength of schedules, even though people like to rip on the Big Ten strength of schedule. I think Indiana would have really good marquee wins, including that road win at Oregon.

So I'm going to go Indiana at number three is the Big Ten runner-runner-up. Remember, they're 12 and 1 at this point. The only reason they get the three-seed over Alabama is at this point, Alabama would be an 11-2 team. 11-2, Alabama would get the four-seed, and there are your four buys automatically into the quarter-finals. I just wish that those teams could also host games in the quarter-finals. finals, and we didn't have to play in neutral sites like we're going to do this year. More on that in just a moment. Now, we also have to place another champ here, and I think that in this model, Miami at 12 and

1 as an ACC champ would get the fifth seed. Okay, I do think the Big Ten and the SEC are going to get the benefit of the doubt, and Miami would get that fifth seed. So there they are hosting a first round game. Now you start getting into some of the at-large teams, because in this scenario, I think there are going to be some teams that are likely in a position where they will be rated above both Texas Tech, who's a champion, and South Florida. And the South Florida one is fairly obvious. Let me just talk to you before I place these teams in a bracket and kind of where I have some

teams in where they're going to be sitting at at the end of the year. I think Georgia has a good chance to be an 11-1 team 7-1 in the SEC. I think Ole Miss has a really good chance to be an 11-1 team, 7-1 in the SEC. So they're not getting into the SEC championship game, but 11-1 through the SEC is going to be very, very highly respected in that committee room. We know that. We know that. In this model, I've got Vandy at 9 and 3, Texas at 8 and 4, Tennessee at 10 and 2.

Look at their schedule. I think they're going to be at 10-2, possibly 6 and 2 in the SEC, and I've got OU as an 8-and-4 team. In the Big Ten, Ohio State and Indiana, they're already in, 13 and 12 and 1. If you look at Oregon's schedule, it's actually very difficult coming down the stretch. They still have to play at Iowa. They've got to play USC. They've got to play at Washington. Those are all teams that I think at this point are underrated teams.

I'm very interested to see where the committee is actually going to put those teams because, again, I think that the AP is undervaluing the top middle of the Big Ten at this point, and I think that the committee is actually going to value them properly. At least they should. They've got the metrics necessary to do that. If you actually look at some of the metrics out there that are not just tied to the AP or narrative from certain networks, what you actually see is like the Sagrin ratings and other models, they have the Big Ten rated much higher. In particular, that middle top tier of the Big Ten, your Iowa's, your Michigan's, your U.S. and your Washington's. So because of that, Oregon's going to have this really difficult trip down the month of

November, three of those teams in November, including a trip to Kinnick, which is, as you all know, very difficult. Indiana was in a 13-13 game with them late into the fourth quarter. Because of that, everyone just assumes Oregon's going to be an 11-1 team. I actually think that they go 10-2. So I've got Oregon as a 10-2, 7-2 in the Big 10. I've got Iowa as a 9-3. I think Michigan and this, because I gave Ohio State that win, is going to be 9 and 3,

and cue all the Wolverine fans yelling in the comments about 4 and 0 in the last four years. And then USC is an 8 and 4, 6 and 3 in the Big 10. So that's how I kind of played out the Big 10. So once you have those records, now you can start getting into some of this at large, and you start to see where I'm headed with this. Miami was at 5, okay? And at 6, Georgia's an 11 and 1. They're going to be an at large right there, so they're at 6.

And candidly, five, six, seven, eight, all of these could probably flip-flop places. So this seating is not going to be super accurate. But again, if you look at this situation, if you look at these schedules, I really like kind of the direction of this. Seven, 12 and one, Big 12 champ, Texas Tech would be in at number seven. And again, five through seven, you can mix those seeds up all you want. You can put Texas Tech at five. Sure. Maybe Miami gets a buy.

I'm not sure maybe Bama is sitting there at five. Those seedings, but these are the teams that I'm really projecting to be in this thing. At number eight, remember, I've still a Ole Miss in 11-1. That's easily in the playoff, and they would be in there in this one as the eight seed. Now, let's pause and skip ahead because what we're going to come down to is a bunch of teams vying for the at-large spots. and I've already mentioned all of them and their records. So bear with me here. The 12th seed in this model is going to be the group of six champion,

which is South Florida. So let's go with 12 South Florida. They're going to be going to Miami. Yes, I know, stop yelling. They already went there. I get it. But they're going to go to Miami and they're going to play the cane. So there's South Florida, which leaves three spots.

Now, here we go and here's where the rubber meets the road. This is where it actually gets really fun. Because if you play it out, as I did right there, okay, the SEC, the Big Ten, you've got this Virginia thing going on. You've got a Cincinnati thing going on. You might have a Utah thing going on, a Houston thing going on. Here's where we're at. There's three spots, and there are six teams, six, that have two losses. You've got Georgia Tech coming off an ACC championship game loss.

You've got BYU coming off of a big 12 championship game loss. Those two teams are 11 and 2. You've got Oregon as a 10 and 2 did not play in their conference championship game. Tennessee as a 10 and 2 in the SEC. Notre Dame as a 10 and 2 as an independent and potentially Utah as a 10 and 2. out of the Big 12, not in the Big 12 championship game. Wildness. Three spots.

Six teams. Where do we go? Where do we go? Let's start with this. Process of elimination. Utah did not play in the Big 12 championship game. It's not a league that we probably think that there's going to get multiple teams. So Utah would be eliminated.

Now there's five teams, three spots to have to go home. I think I'm going to select the team first. first that I have a really good feeling would get in. And that would be Tennessee. They would be coming off an undefeated November. They would be rising up the committee's rankings every single week. And Tennessee at a 10 and 2 would be my nine seed right there against Ole Miss. So there's Tennessee. They're in. Two spots left. We've got four teams. We're deciding between Georgia Tech at 11 and 2, BYU as 11 and 2. You've got Oregon at 10 and 2 and Notre Dame at 10 and 2.

Let me just put the next team in, and let's get to the last spot and start talking about this. I believe that, again, the committee is going to value the Big 10 properly, and in particular that November for Oregon is going to be very difficult. And even though I'm assigning them a loss in November, I do think that they're going to be comfortably inside of this mark where they're not going to have to sweat the last spot. So I'm going to go Oregon as a 10-2.

They're in as the 10-seed, and they would go to Texas Tech. Now we have three teams, one spot left. Georgia Tech, BYU, Notre Dame. Now, in this scenario, folks, I think you have to go to the losses. BYU in this scenario would have lost the Texas Tech twice. They're my seven seed. Georgia Tech would have lost to Georgia, the sixth seed, and Miami, the five seed. Notre Dame would have lost to Miami, the five seed, and A&M, the two seed.

Process of elimination, it would be right in the back of 10 straight wins. The value of that, I think puts Notre Dame in as the 11 seed, and on the outside looking in, you would have Georgia Tech and BYU. It's crucial that BYU wins one of these games against Texas Tech and wins the Big 12. Crucial. Now, could they get in if they were an undefeated and then lost the Big 12 championship game? Possibly. Possibly.

And probably that would be a likely as a one loss. So this game against Tech in November is going to be a massive game for BYU. Similarly, Georgia Tech, I don't think that they can survive two losses in particular late. So even if they were able to go undefeated in the ACC, that game against Georgia acts as a play-in game for me. And if they were to lose that and lose to Miami, I think on the back of two straight losses, they would be falling down. Notre Dame on the back of 10 straight wins would be climbing up the rankings. And there you have it. There you have it.

Those are my 12 teams in the college football playoff. And here's the matchups. I've got Oregon at South Florida at Miami. That's a rematch. Notre Dame at Georgia. that's a rematch of last year's quarterfinal. I think we would all love to see that. I've got Oregon at Tech and Tennessee at Ole Miss,

SEC matchup, but they didn't play each other in the regular season. Those would be amazing. And now, if you actually just played it out one step further, last year all the home games, all the home teams, I should say, won those games in the first round. So that could look like Ohio State versus an Old Miss, could be Tennessee, rematch of last year's first round, if it was Ohio State, Tennessee.

You would have A&M against the winner of Tech, Oregon, That game's at Tech. So it could be an interstate A&M tech matchup. You would have Indiana against the winner of Georgia, Notre Dame. That would be incredible. It could be a rematch of last year's first round with Notre Dame or Indiana, Georgia. And Alabama would play the Miami-South Florida winner. And that would obviously be great.

And by the way, by the way, can I just say put the quarter final games on campus? Put them on campus. No one wants to see like Ole Miss play Ohio State in, the Sugar Bowl. Like, I don't want to see that. Nobody does. Nobody does. But do you want to see Ole Miss go to Columbus?

Yes. Yes. Do you want to see Tech have to go to A&M? Interstate? Absolutely. You want to see Oregon have to go to A&M? Yes. Obviously, Kyle Field's a great home field advantage.

Give these teams the reward that they earned during the regular season. put the quarterfinals on campus. It's not that hard. It's really not that hard. The Bulls are like Blockbuster. The playoff is like Netflix. It's not Netflix's job to look after Blockbuster as Blockbuster's business is dying.

Period. All right? Make something new? Create something new. Indiana at home versus Georgia or Notre Dame, that would be obviously great. Indiana is undefeated under Signetti at home and Bama at home versus Miami or South Florida.

Yes. Yes. And more yeses. Obviously, no one wants to see those games in corporate, stale environments in the bowl settings. I'm sure I'm going to hear about that from somebody. But it's right. And it's what you think as fans. If you don't think that, I think it's a minority opinion. I'd love to hear from you in the comments.

I really would. I think most of us would love to see these games on campus, in particular because we want to reward the teams that have the best regular seasons and rewarding them with home games is the most obvious thing you can do. So let's do that. Hey, Clatio fans, it's time to get out and do something fun, whether it's catching a game, seeing a concert, or attending another live event. So I want to give the sponsor of today's episode, Seat Geek, a massive shoutout. With over 35 million downloads, Seat Geek is the number one rated ticketing app. They've got more than 70,000 events listed, everything from sports and concerts to festivals and much more. We're in the thick. We're in the thick,

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Let's get to the mailbag as well. I got to get there. Okay, college football fans. Who's got questions? I hope I've got some answers. Let's open my mailbag presented by graduate by Hilton, the smartest place to stay in your favorite college town. I do it all the time. These graduates are phenomenal in all of the college towns. You're going to love them. I love them. And it's perfect for a football weekend. This question comes in from Parker S.

Parker, you sound like a frat guy. Is that wrong? That's fine. It's all right. Hey, Joel, love the show. Thank you, Parker. That was not, I didn't mean to rip on you. That's cool.

If you are, it's awesome. As a Notre Dame fan, I like the Iris's chance of making the CFP if we went out, but don't think it's 100% a lock. Yeah. I mean, I just laid that out. You're exactly right. I don't want to miss out because of our two losses to start the year.

So my question is, who do I need to start rooting against so that Notre Dame keeps climbing up the rankings and is definitely in the playoff? Go Irish. Parker, thank you. That's a great question. Yeah, I've got a few of these teams. All right. We see this every single year in the college football or excuse me, the college basketball tournament, the NCAA tournament, where you've got these bubble teams and they're rooting for favorites and they're rooting for chalk in the. the conference championship tournaments so that you don't get some Cinderella that's stealing a

spot and then a bubble team gets knocked out. Same thing could happen right here because what could go on in the ACC or the Big 12 in particular could be wild. And there's a plausible scenario like the one I already just laid out. BYU beats tech. Then they face somebody in the Big 12 championship game and lose. They're 12 and 1 probably still in, but the champion also has to go. So you're eliminating an at large spot right there.

or at least stealing one if you're BYU. So we see this all the time. And if you're like Notre Dame or a Big Ten school that's going to rely on an out-large spot or an SEC team that's going to rely on an at-large spot, what do you want to see and who do you want to root against? I've got those answers. Are you ready? Here's the answers.

You need to root against Virginia, Houston, and Cincinnati. Maddie, those three teams specifically are in a unique position to just blow this thing up. Blow this thing up. And if you're fans of those teams, you're like, yes, that's what the playoff is all about. So, like, good on you. And I'm rooting for you as well. But if you want chalk, you need those teams to lose. There is a really weird scheduling deal going on in the ACC right now with Virginia and North Carolina State.

Right now, Virginia's only... The only loss on the year is to North Carolina State. Now, on its face, you would think, oh, okay, so Virginia has one loss in ACC play. No, they don't. In fact, that was a weird scheduling agreement where Virginia and North Carolina State agreed to play a non-conference game this year because the conference, because there's so many teams and there's only eight conference games. and those two teams weren't going to play each other for a long period of time in the natural scheduling rhythm of the ACC. So they got together and they decided to do a home-and-home non-conference in which this year, North Carolina State, beat Virginia, but Virginia is undefeated in ACCC play.

True story, can't make this up only in college football. It's wild. So because of that, Virginia actually has the inside track on getting to the ACC championship game over Miami. So you really need, if you're Miami, in this case, like a Cal or a Duke, to knock these teams off or knock Virginia off. You need all of these teams to start beating each other. And Virginia is certainly one of those. But again, it's a really weird one. Cincinnati, currently unbeaten in the Big 12.

Their only loss was the opening week of the season to Nebraska. That game was in Arrowhead, if you remember. You know, they had all the celebrities in there. Patrick Mahomes was there. I think Taylor Swift was there because obviously Cincinnati connection with Kelsey. That was wild. But Cincinnati lost that game.

And now they're undefeated since and they're undefeated in the Big 12. So Texas Tech is sitting there like, wait, we feel like we're the best team, but we're in a second position right now. An outside position, just like Miami and the ACC. They need somebody to beat Cincinnati. Cincinnati's got to go to Utah.

Utah's ranked right now. They've got Arizona. They've got BYU and at TCU. That's why I didn't put them in. this, I think they've got a couple of these games that are going to be really tough for Cincinnati. I like what they've done so far, but Utah and BYU is a bridge too far from me for Cincinnati. Houston, like the rest of them. They only have one loss right now.

No ranked opponents left. How about this for Houston? Their remaining schedule is West Virginia, UCF, TCU, and at Baylor. I mean, like, tech needs this team to lose. it's a wild one right now. I think that Houston, which lost to Texas Tech, I think that they need another loss to like TCU or Baylor.

You don't want them lurking in that at-large spot, getting themselves into the Big 12 championship game if you want chalk, if you want chalk. So those are three teams that right now could produce some wild scenarios at the end of this year. This is really fun for me to do these projections. Obviously, we'll see if they're correct. They're probably going to be wrong.

But in this model, there's a lot of new blood in the college football playoff. It could be very fun down the stretch. There's a lot of fan bases engaged at the top end of the sport. There's a lot of games that mean everything. Iowa, Oregon, all of a sudden becomes a massive game because of the extension, the growth of the college football playoff. It's been a great thing. So there you have it.

That'll do it. the November projection for the college football playoff. We'll be back tomorrow with picks and previews. Better week last week. Four and one last week, much better. We're going to try to claw our way back to 500, which I get it. All of you that bet, I don't bet, by the way.

I just make these picks. I've never bet on any sporting event in my life. And at this point, everybody that does bet, they keep telling me like, hey, no, no, no, it's not just about 500 because of the, quote, juice. Unaware of that. I didn't know what that was. Call me naive.

I thought like, hey, you just got to be above 500 and you're going to win money. Apparently not. Apparently not. So we're going to try to claw back into that profitable region. Going to be difficult, but we started our climb last week. Picks and Previews coming up tomorrow. Thank you for watching. Make sure to subscribe on YouTube.

Follow us on social media. And again, we'll be back tomorrow with Picks and Previews.