The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Klatt’s List of Legitimate National Championship Contenders

Episode Date: September 27, 2023

With the first month of the season in the books, FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt decides which teams have separated themselves as legitimate national championship contenders in his eyes. He outlines which teams have made it “above the line” and others that fall just below the contender threshold. He considers where to place Pac-12 teams like Washington, USC and Utah as well as the 3 Big Ten East powers, Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Klatt also discusses whether Alabama and Notre Dame still make the cut despite their early season losses and debates what to do with Florida State’s up-and-down season. He then goes into the mailbag to answer listener-submitted questions before providing an important update about the giveaway of Joel’s Rose Bowl hats. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today on the Joel Clad Show, we've got to define it. Who can actually win the national championship? I'll tell you next. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again.

Hey, everybody, how are you? This is the Joel Clad Show, Wednesday edition of the Joel Clad Show. So this show, as always, is presented by Hampton by Hilton. Man, I can't wait to get into this. This is going to be a good one. I've been looking forward to doing this show for a while. So before we get into it, first, welcome. And I just got to tell you, you're all going to love this.

We're talking about a ton of teams today, a ton of teams. So if you have not followed us on social media, you need to go do so. Wherever you like to social media, go ahead at Joel Clatio. You can follow me on Twitter. I still call Twitter, whatever. I'm at Joel Clatt there. You can follow me on Instagram, by the way, as well. I'm out there on Instagram at Joel underscore Clat,

or you can follow any of the shows at Joel Clashow. Okay. Like the show, subscribe to the show, YouTube, wherever we get your podcasts, rate review it. More on that in a bit, because we've got a fun giveaway that's going to start today right here on the program. But what are we talking about today?

Well, I am a very good. I am really excited about this because we finally get to define who's a real contender. I keep talking about on this show. And you've heard me say it so many times like, well, they're an above the line team. And no, they're not quite above the line. And it's like, we got to define the line. First of all, what is the line and what does it mean to be above the line? Well, let's get after it today.

Okay. So here's what we're going to do. We are going to place teams above the line. What is that line? It means that you are a legitimate national championship contender. That's it. It's very simple. If I categorize you as an above the line team, I believe that you are a legitimate

national championship caliber team. Now, does that mean every single team that has a path to the playoff or a path to a national championship is above this line that I'm going to give out? No, that doesn't mean that. This means that I think that you're legitimate. There's a difference. There's a difference. And we're going to get through a lot of this.

So I'm not going to tell you exactly how many teams I have above the line. But one of the reasons I wanted to do this exercise is one, we've been referencing it for a couple of weeks. And also because this is a year in which I feel like we have more national championship caliber teams than we've had in a long time. in a long time, and you've heard me say that countless times on this program. Majority of the years dating back, really my entire career covering college football, you could say at this point in the season, end of September, we've seen four games, you could legitimately say, there's like two or three teams that can win it. They can like really get like they can win it.

They can go win it. This year it's more. And I am here for it. There's more parody in college football. It's a combination of more teams. being good and less teams being great. Makes for a more entertaining year. And I'm here for it and we need to go through it.

It's just less obvious. It's just it's less obvious this year which, which team it actually is. There have been years and you guys know exactly what I'm talking about. There's been years where it's like, I know who's going to play in the national championship game, much less who could actually win the championship. So the college football year in some regards was anticlimactic in previous seasons.

This one's not. And that's why I'm so excited for it. So here's the way that this is going to roll out. I believe that there's a group of teams that it's just like super obvious. It's like, yep, they're obviously above the line. And so we're going to unveil them first. And then there's a group of teams that might not be as obvious. And I'll unveil them next.

And then we're going to draw the line. And then I'm going to talk about some teams that didn't quite make it above the line. Here we go. Let's start with what I think is kind of the most obvious one. Not because they're a great team this year, but because it's obvious. Georgia is the most obvious team because they're going to be the toughest out in the country. This is a team that from a roster standpoint is as good as any out there. and they're going to have the ability just to continue to get better the entire season

because they're not going to be really tested. So they're not going to be required to be at their best until really the SEC championship game. And then I think it's probably the easiest SEC championship game, at least at this point, the way that I'm viewing this year, and I think most people are viewing this year, probably going to be the easiest SEC championship game to win in the last decade. You know, save for a couple of years when, you know, I remember Missouri won the East a couple of times.

And like I get it. But listen, this seems to be a very top heavy conference this year with Georgia at the top. And there's a lot of questions about all the other teams in this conversation. My question, if I were you, would be, are there any other teams in the SEC that are above the line? Well, continue to listen. And we'll see and we'll all see together. To get back to Georgia, though, I just want to reiterate, regardless of the way that they've played so far,

regardless of really anything this year, when the rubber beats the road in a championship environment, whether it's the SEC championship game or in a potential playoff game or in a national championship game, you still have to beat Georgia. They're the defending two-time national champion for a reason. They've recruited at the height of college football.

And Kirby has a standard with that, program that's going to be very difficult to beat, regardless of if they're the most talented offense or quarterback in the country or not. That's the toughest out in the country because you got to go beat them. They're not going to beat themselves. And that's going to be a very difficult thing to do. All right, let's move on again. These are above the line teams and these for me are the group that's most obvious. The next one is Washington. Folks, I was higher than most on Washington to begin the season, and I continue to be higher than most on Washington now. The Washington Huskies are the scariest team in the country for everybody else.

That team is easily one of the two or three best teams in the country, hands down. They've got a quarterback that right now would get my Heisman Trophy vote if I was voting just after one month of the season. Michael Pennix, Jr. has been the best player in college football. Not a lot of people have been watching because, let's face it, they haven't had great opponents, but the opponents that they have faced, they have destroyed. That passing game is the best passing game in college football. Quarterback wide receiver combination, the way that they protect the quarterback.

He's never touched. He's never pressured. And they've got electric players on the outside. They've got a great combination of size and athleticism and also sloth. guys that can run and are terrific in space. They've got a coach that understands offensive football. He's one of these, you know, almost savants when it comes to play calling and Kalin DeBoer. And he's also a terrific head coach that nobody knows about. This is my favorite part about Washington is like it's, it's like finding, you guys know when you find like a great shirt brand

or a hat or like maybe you're a golfer like me and you find a great golf shirt brand that no one knows about, and you get to be the first one to like wear that shirt around, that's Washington for me this year. I'm very proud of the fact that before the season even began, I was on this train. And Washington is incredible. Now, some have said, and I've seen this on social media, people will be like, clat, they don't play defense. What are you talking about?

Washington can't beat anybody. Totally disagree with you. Completely disagree with you. In fact, if you actually go back and you watch the games, and if you go back and you actually look through the play-by-play, this is what you'll find when it comes to Washington. You'll find that when Michael Pinnock actually leaves the game, they've had leads like 52 to 12 over Cal, 41, nothing against Michigan State, 49, 19, Boise, 3610 Tulsa. The guy has thrown 10 passes in the fourth quarter because he's out.

They don't need him through three quarters. They are housing everybody, everybody. Roma Dunzee is an incredible wide receiver. he and Keon Coleman, who doesn't play for Washington, please, I'm not suggesting that. But we came into this season with like Marvin Harrison's the best wide receiver in college football. And I still believe that to be true. But now you've got to at at least take a look at Keon Coleman at Florida State. You've got to take a look at Romodunzee at Washington and see what they're doing.

These guys at Washington, that's easily the best passing game in the country, period. Period. They are fantastic. Then you look at their head coach. And this is what I was talking about when I said an underrated head coach. Kalin DeBoer as a head coach. So this started when he was the head coach at Sioux Falls. Granted, not a terrific level of competition, but he's a head coach.

Sue Falls. Then he was a head coach at Fresno. Then he was a head coach at Fresno State. And then he was a head coach now at Washington. In between there, Sue Falls and Fresno, he went up to Indiana and was a coordinator. That's when I first met him. That's when he first met Michael Pennix Jr. By the way, that offense,

that Kalin-DeBore created was in large part responsible for that great year that Tom Allen had at Indiana during the COVID year when Michael Pinnock was doing big things in that year for the Hoosiers. Then he goes out to Washington and here he is the quarterback of the scariest team in the country. Who can score with Washington? I'm sorry? Who can score with Washington? Maybe USC. Okay? Maybe Texas.

I don't know about any other. I don't know about any other. And this guy, Kaelin DeBore, I was teasing this for a moment. Those three places, you take a look at his overall record as a head coach. Kalin DeBore as a head coach is 94 and 11. Guy knows what he's doing. If people don't think Washington are for real, they are sorely mistaken. That was some Ferris Bueller's day off vibes right there.

if Veras thinks he can just breeze through the year, he's sorely, sorely mistaken. All right. That team is, I'm just saying, watch out for Washington. I think it might be the best team in the country right now. All right. Next up, let's go with Texas. Texas is an obvious one for me. And it's not because of what their quarterback did.

It's actually not just because of the result against Alabama, although that helps. It's not just because of Steve Sarke. in the way that he call his plays, calls plays, although that helps. It's not just Xavier worthy and some of the skill position players on the outside, although that helps. Do you know why Texas is real? Do you know why they're an obvious choice to go above the line?

It's because they're real at the line of scrimmage. Their defense is consistent, and it's consistently good. They can run the ball. They went out against Alabama, against what I categorize as a pretty good defense, and they ended the game on the field in the last seven minutes. That's what makes them real. This to me reminds me a lot more of the 2004-2005 Texas teams than it does what we've seen for the last decade or even with Colt McCoy.

That Colt McCoy team, the offense and the skill position players were making up for, I would say, a lot of inadequacies around that roster. Not anymore. The defense is real. The offensive line is real. And here's what that does. I've lamented for a long time that Texas constantly plays. the level of their competition. I've set it on this program countless times. But when you really think about it, like, what is that a product of? Well, it's a product of just being reliant on

timing and rhythm and skill position execution, which is what they've been reliant on for a long time. But now they're reliant on line play, defensive play. That is more consistent on a weekend and week out basis. So that's why they're obviously for me above the line. Alabama is a 113 and 1 versus unranked opponents since Sabin's second year in 2008, right? And it's like, that's one of the reasons why they're so good is because they're consistently great at the line of scrimmage. Georgia consistently great at the line of scrimmage. So you wonder like, why do these teams like Georgia and Alabama never get beat by a bad team because they're great at the line of scrimmage?

Well, guess what Texas is now great at the line of scrimmage. Let's move on now. A couple of teams here from the Big Ten. And again, these are just obvious above the line teams. Let's go with Michigan first. Michigan is an obvious one. This is one of those teams that, while they might not be top-end talent, one of the best rosters, they are one of the deepest rosters in college football when it comes to Blue Chip four-star players.

Rinse and repeat what I just said about Texas, about Michigan in terms of what they are at the line of scrimmage. This team is a boa constrictor. It might not always be pretty, and sometimes it's a little bit slow, but guess what? once they wrap themselves around you, it's over. Over. And they're totally comfortable being in tight games in the third quarter because they know eventually it's a wrap. It's a wrap.

The only time that I get nervous or anxious for Michigan is when they get outside of being the boa constrictor. When that happens, then they get into a game like they had against TCU in which they turn the ball over. They get out of their mentality. They try things in particular inside the TCU. 10 yard line, then they shouldn't be trying. And all of a sudden, you get beat.

But when they are in their identity and when they are playing to their strengths, they're one of those teams that is just ridiculously difficult to beat. That's an obvious above the line team. And the next one would be Ohio State. Ohio State after that win, I feel a lot better about Ohio State after the win against Notre Dame than I did going into the weekend. One, I know that they have an absolute star at quarterback. Maybe not Star Star, but like, you don't do that in the last minute, 26, if you're Kyle McCord, unless you are a dude.

And he made some great throws. You can question Notre Dame all you want for their end-of-game strategy. And I have. You can go back and listen to Monday's show. But the plays still had to be made from the Ohio State side. And he made them. He made some incredible throws. Their toughness was tested.

They played a team that basically tried to use the Michigan blueprint in order to go beat. Ohio State, and they did so in their home stadium of Notre Dame in an electric environment with a quarterback that was making his 187th start in his college career. All right, that would be a record, obviously, but it was his 51st. And they won, Ohio State did. Doesn't that give them a ton of confidence going into the rest of the season? I would think so. So here's a team that tried to use the Michigan blueprint in a great,

environment in their home stadium and Ohio State was able to go on the road sustain win on short yardage defensively get off the field when they needed to make the plays when they needed to in particular late and win the game it's exactly what they're going to need to do later in the season that gives them a lot of confidence and it gives me a lot of confidence and so that is going to be my first group above the line and those are the obvious ones okay those five teams, Georgia, Washington, Texas, Michigan, and Ohio State. Those are obvious teams. If I find faults in any of those teams, it's one small area. Other than that, absolutely going to be there in the end. Now let's go into a group of teams that I believe are above the line. So again, this is my estimation that you are a legitimate national championship caliber team.

So while I might say some things about these teams that you might consider being a knock, I love these teams. I consider them national championship caliber teams. Let's get into it. Okay. Who do I want to start with? Let's start with in the next group, Oregon. Oregon almost made it into that top tier. Of this next group of batch of teams, they're the one that I can't really find.

a lot of faults in. I really can't. I like Oregon a lot. I wanted to move them up into that top obvious group. And I just didn't. And I think that the reason is, is because of my confidence in Washington, actually. The tough nature of the PAC 12, I don't know if the PAC 12 can get two teams into the playoff. And so that's the reason why they're not in the top tier. It's nothing to do with Oregon, because I love Oregon. I already told you that on Monday. day. Dan Lannning loves his team. That's the only reason that he reacted in the pregame the way that he did. That's the only reason he said what he said at halftime of that game against Colorado. The trailer that they put out, the video of showing Colorado talk trash, they housed that team.

That was a message to the rest of the country. And Dan Lannick's message, although maybe subliminal, was the fact that like, I believe in this team. I believe this team on the top tier. I believe this team as an above the line team. And that should tell all of us something because Dan Lannning knows exactly what it looks like. He helped build Georgia, which is the standard in college football. That, to me, speaks volumes about what happened on Saturday. Lannick doesn't do that going for two and the fake punt and the things that he said unless he's like, yep, we're for real. I know we're for real.

And one of the areas where I watched that game and I thought to myself, this seems a lot. different. Obviously, an improved defense from a year ago with the Oregon Ducks, but it more so was the speed. And that's something that I don't think we talk enough about in college football is, yes, it takes great defense to win championships. And I believe it still does. And yes, it takes great line of scrimmage play. More than that, what has Georgia had the last two years on defense? Speed. They can run, man. They tackle really well. It makes it. hard on the offense. It just makes it hard. Everything that you get hard earned. If you block a play for three, you only get three. If you block a play and design it for five, you only get five.

There are not free yards when you play the Georgia Bulldogs. And that's the way that looked when Oregon was on the field this year. So that defense makes it real. Their quarterback makes it real. They can run the football. I love Oregon. So for me, they're above the line. The only reason they weren't in my obvious tier was because of their difficulty of their conference and the fact that they're going to have to play Washington, which I think is the scariest team in the country. Next up in this tier, Penn State. Love Penn State. Man, they are a real national championship contender.

Every week that goes by that their quarterback gets more confidence as a young player, Drew Aller, every week that goes by that their defense continues to play with length and athleticism and aggressiveness. every week that goes by, that their run game gets better and more physical and that they can lean on it more and more. That's a really good team. And again, the only reason they're not in the obvious category is because we haven't seen them yet play on the level of Michigan and Ohio State over the last couple of years. And they still have to do that in that division. So the same thing that applied to Oregon now applies to Penn State would probably be in the obvious category.

but because of what they've got left on their schedule within their own conference, there's just a little bit more of a question mark. I'm a huge fan of what James Franklin is doing. Saw that team against Illinois? Did they look great? No, but guess what? They looked good enough and they can continue to get better. And now I can't wait for those matchups against Ohio State and Michigan later in the year.

If you're looking at those matchups as a Nittany Lion fan, I would just say that I think they're much more built, suited, if you will, to match up with Ohio State than they, are to match up with Michigan. The size or lack thereof of their defensive front would worry me a little bit when facing the Michigan Wolverines, who I already told you in this show are more like a boa constrictor. So that's my thought about Penn State. All right.

Next up. USC is real. We know that they have. Now, while I say Michael Pennix has played the best in the country, I believe that, but the best player in the country is Caleb Williams. And he's done nothing to disappoint this year. He's been absolutely flawless. In fact, later in the week, I'm going to have some video breakdown of what Caleb does in the pocket.

Everybody talks about what he does outside the pocket. And yes, that's what makes him great or generational. But you only become a great player or a generational player. If you can also do what great players do in the pocket and control the game and manipulate the game with your feet and your eyes and your mind and then throw accurately down the field, which he does. So USC is there. They're third in the country, by the way, defensively in sacks. So while they gave up some yards against Arizona State last week, they do some things on the defensive side that are better than a year ago.

Remember last year, they lived on turnovers. And they've gotten some turnovers this year. But it's a little bit different because they're generating pressure. And that pressure, I think, is more sustainable. And the reason I think it's more sustainable is that they're generating the pressure without blitzing for the most part. They've got defensive front players, and I'm going to see them this week, and I can't wait, Bear Alexander, Solomon Bird, Jamil Muhammad, Stanley Tuafuo.

I believe I'm saying that right. I'm probably not. I'll get it better by Saturday. These guys can present pressure on the quarterback, even without help from the second level, in terms of blitzing. They're top 10 in the country in pressure rate, and number one in the country, on quarterback pressure rate on non-blitz plays. So think about that.

They're the best non-blitzing pressure team in college football. That's better than a year ago. So while Saturday was a bit of a scare against Arizona State, and they do have to get better at tackling in space, in particular in the secondary, they do some things on defense that are better than what they were. And we all said, and I was included in this, that all they needed to do was be better on defense, and then, holy cow, what would they be?

So they're still above the line, but they're not quite as obvious. Next up, Utah. Utah is an above the line team. Now, you can tell me all you want that like, hey, Joel, you can't say Utah because they barely be UCLA. They're defensive oriented. They can't score a lot of points. Okay. Let's reverse that.

what team do you know could be without their best offensive player their quarterback who's their leader and won the conference back to back years the majority of their defensive line and several other key positions and before and oh with wins over Florida

and UCLA like not many Utah's just going to be better and better and better as they get more healthy so right now do they have a top end that suggests national championship? Maybe not, but they're still above the line because they're going to get a quarterback that takes them there that raises their ceiling.

That Utah defense was incredible on Saturday against UCLA. They went out there and slammed the door shut with their pass rush against UCLA late in that game. And if they continue to play like that and get more and more healthy, even in the defensive front seven, and they get their quarterback back and they get Brankithy back, Watch out. Then Utah could easily win the conference. And so they're absolutely an above the line team.

I've only got one more in this group. Florida State. Florida State. You might be wondering like, man, we've talked about a lot of teams before Florida State. Well, hey, Florida State has earned being in this spot. However, I would just say this about Florida State. at this point, after September, being able to watch the games and evaluate the games, they have what you could categorize as one of, if not the most impressive resume in college football,

but they're a little bit more resume than substance, which is fine, which is fine. They can continue to get better. And again, I'm going to continue to say this. I believe that Florida State is a legitimate national championship contender. So while this feels like a slight, it's not. It's not. You have to evaluate with some level of realism the fact that Florida State was just outgained by Boston College by 100 yards and escaped with a win. They were outgained by Clemson by 100 yards, escaped with a win.

So while their 4 and O and their resume looks really good, there are some caution lights. And I talked about it on Monday. There's a check engine light on the dashboard right now with Florida State. and we just have to see how this materializes. All right? I love Keon Coleman. Jordan Travis has been playing really good football. But if you really look and watch the game

and watch the coaches tape of that game against Clemson, what you'll see and the way that it watches is that Florida State upset the Tigers. That the better team didn't win. If you look at the way that they were outgained, if you look at the fact that they needed a defensive score, they needed Clemson to miss a kick late. We are very easily in a world where Florida State lost the last two weeks and they're two and two. But they're not. So you give them credit and you put them above the line because they've earned that.

But they are a little bit more resume than they are substance at this point. You can say when I watch the game against Clemson, it's not a favored team going in there and taking care of business on the road and getting a win. No, no, no. It is a team that upset a Clemson team at home because of the way the game played out. If you're drawing up a blueprint of an upset, that's what it would include. You're probably going to get out gained. You need a defensive score or a special team score. You need more turnovers. And you probably need them to make a mistake in one of those specialty areas, which Clemson did.

So while Florida State is above the line, and I love their quarterback, Jordan Travis. I love his big moment playing. making ability. I love their wide receiver key on Coleman. It's just some caution lights on for everybody. That's where I draw the line. So there you go. I've got 10 teams above the line. I think 10 teams are legitimately national championship contenders. And there they are. Georgia, Washington, Texas, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, SC, Utah, and Florida State. And by the way, those were in no particular order. No particular order.

All above the line. Now, I thought that there was one obvious group and one less obvious group, but all above the line, which leads to the next conversation. Like, who almost made it and didn't? Let's start with that group. Notre Dame. Notre Dame was my next team. And I had to draw the line somewhere. And I had to draw it above Notre Dame.

And the reason was, is that as positively as I feel about Notre Dame coming out of the game against Ohio State, and I really do. I was impressed with them. I think that they have a quarterback that is a real quarterback now. It takes them. Their ceiling is so much higher than it has been over the last few years. They're talented. And yet, they had the home field advantage. They had the momentum on their side in the second half.

they had it right there for the taking and still got beat. So it's like all of the ghosts for Notre Dame are still there. They still haven't done it. You know, it's kind of the, they still haven't beaten Ohio State since the 1930s. And while this would have been a huge win for them, they lost at home to Ohio State. And so I had to draw the line somewhere. Like you had a team with a guy making his fourth start. I know technically it's his fifth, but stop it with that.

People on social media were like, it's his fifth start. Technically it was his fifth start. It was his fourth start, folks. First start came two years ago and mop up duty for C.J. Stroud, who was injured for a week right after the Oregon loss. I get it. McCord started back then. Like, this was his first start.

Fourth start. You had an inexperienced QB on the other side. You had their best player hobbled with an ankle. You had the lead by four with a minute 26 left. You had the environment. You had it all. Like you got to win the game. And so that's the reason that I had to draw a line and it had to go above Notre Dame.

Second team in this group, OU. OU, I saw him last week. I was impressed with a lot of things. They were kind of the next team in consideration. The defense has been really good so far this year. And that was the question coming in. Remember, this is a team that gave up over 30 points a game and over 450 yards a game last year. Not good.

And so they have to improve. And while the statistics suggests that their defense is much better, like we still have to wait and see. I still don't feel like they've played a great offense. And there were times during that game against Cincinnati when I felt like, boy, the Bearcats are a couple of mistakes away from having the lead in this game. offensively, I like what Oklahoma does. I think that their wide receivers are their best players. I believe that their offensive line has to get better running the football. They need to find a running back that will emerge as their guy in the backfield to allow for the timing and the rhythm of the run game to really reach its potential.

And then I think that their quarterback, you know, I don't think he's got the highest ceiling in the way. world. I like Dylan Gabriel. He gets the ball out quickly. But when it comes to utilizing the weapons on the outside, those big wide receivers, he needs to show me that he can attack downfield with more efficiency than what he has over the last couple of years. So that's why OU fell just below the line for me. Next team up was Bama. Bama was kind of that next team under consideration for me. I've said this before now and I said it Monday. Bama is a really good football team. They are that draft pick in the NFL draft.

When you talk about them and you're like, okay, like maybe not a high ceiling, but a really high floor. High floor, low ceiling team. They're not a top end team this year, but they're still really good. They're still probably going to win the West. they're still probably going to play for the SEC championship. So while they have a path, I just don't think they're legitimate. Because when I look at those teams that are above the line,

there are several of them that it's like, you're going to have to, even if they play poorly, score minimum 28, minimum 24, maybe 30, maybe into the 30s, you're going to have to get into a game like that. If you play Washington, I think you're going to have to score 35 points, minimum to win the game. Do you trust Alabama to score 35 points against anybody?

Because I don't. So that's where I'm saying like low ceiling, high floor. Because they're going to beat almost everybody that they play. I just don't trust Bama this year with what they are at quarterback offensively to be able to go and win a game in which they've got to score 28, 30, 34 points. So that's why they were below the line. they've got they've had an incredible era of winning and they will continue to win this year it's just not going to be at the top level next team that i considered and mostly just because i think other people are considering them but someone like brought up ls u and i'm like lsu man lsu is is not on the level in fact ls u is the fly in the Why are people not realizing that Florida State has some flaws?

It's because of what they thought about LSU coming into the year. You see, we forgot about LSU and what they were a year ago. The Bama game was an anomaly. Their total wins number was a bit of an anomaly. They only beat Arkansas by three last year. They only beat Auburn by four, and they were housed by Georgia, A&M, and Tennessee. It's like, so if you really looked at LSU and you're like, huh, maybe they weren't quite as good. And listen, I fell into the trap.

I had them up there in the top 10 and I fell into the trap. And so when Florida State beat LSU, I'm like, well, this means Florida State is really good. But does it? Maybe LSU is just the fly in the ointment. This team right now almost lost to Arkansas, got run out of the stadium against Florida State. don't love their defensive game plan. They feel all over the place right now. LSU, I would say someone brought them up

and I was like, well, they're clearly below the line. Like clearly. You can't play that game against Arkansas. My thoughts about LSU are why I still believe Alabama still even has a sniff or a path to the playoff. Even for how low the ceiling is for Bama, high floor, low ceiling. They're probably going to play in the SEC.

championship game because the SEC West is not very good. And the SEC West is not very good because LSU is not very good. And we should have at least given that some thought in the preseason. Again, guilty is charged. Hand up right here. Guilty is charged. But if you really look at what they were a year ago and now what they are this year, it's like, ah, it's it's underwhelming.

Underwhelming. Last team that I gave consideration was Washington State. So, like, watch out for Washington State. If there was a team that I would say, like, I reserve the right to change where the line goes later, it would be for Washington State. And the reason is, the reason is, Washington State is the new TCU.

Campbell Ward is the new Max Duggan. They're going to win a lot of tight ball games because their quarterback is really good. He's experienced. He's played a ton of football. And they have this us against the world mentality born from being left out of conference realignment.

Their coach constantly talks about it. Now they've got this drama about what was said on a certain pregame show about them and their opponent and the game and their coach addresses it after. Us against the world mentality really good experienced quarterback, enough talent on the outside to scare you,

granted a tough conference, but the ability to win close games, Washington State's the new TCU. Because then it's like, well, how long will it last? That's what we were asking with TCU in particular at this point. Remember when they were escaping last year, TCU, like Kansas State, they escaped at home, Oklahoma State, they escaped at home.

And you get to the thing, you're like, wow, like, they're still undefeated. Could they? will they? That's how I feel about the coogs. That's what I feel about the coogs. I really love Cam Ward. Now the difference is is that

the PAC 12 this year is stronger than what the Big 12 was a year ago for TCU. So now you got road games against UCLA, Oregon, and Washington still to come. And you would have to play a Pac-12 title game. So while in some

senses, I wanted to put them above the line as this year's TCU I can't because of that conference and because of that schedule. And in particular, because of that one team that I really love. If there are two teams that I believe in most in the Pac-12, it's Washington number one and then Oregon. And they have to play them both. And they have to play them both on the road.

That's tough. So this year's Cinderella, I think, is the Coogs. I think that it's Cam Ward and Washington State. I think that through the first month, if we're looking for a TCU, you, if we're looking for somebody to spoil it all, even though it wasn't to spoil, it was an absolute pleasure for the horn frogs and all of us watching last year, that would be it.

If there's a guy that could come from nowhere to be a runner up in the Heisman trophy voting, it's Cam Ward. All of that just is reminiscent to a year ago. So that's where I finished. That's where I finished. I didn't do any of the other teams because candidly, like, I didn't consider any other teams for above the line. I did not consider.

These were the only teams that I considered. If your team was not considered, that means that they're not close to above the line. Maybe that'll change. I'm not sure. The teams that have the best opportunity

to change my mind are teams like Duke, North Carolina, maybe Miami, teams like that. But above the line teams heading into week five, there are the 10 that I already said,

and then the five that just missed out, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Alabama, LSU, and then Washington State. All right, let's get into the mailbag before we get out of here. We still have a lot to get into. So mailbag, sponsored by Hampton by Hilton, Hilton for the stay. Here's the number one question that comes in in the mailbag.

And I think you guys will get a kick out of this. It comes in and says, hey, Joel, we're sure you had to fuel up for breakfast back in your QB days. What was your go-to pre-game workout breakfast? We bet if you were playing today, it would be our apple cinnamon. Waffles. Listen, you wouldn't be off on that. Absolutely not. And in fact, I do have to tell you, like, I'm so thankful for Hampton by Hilton and the ability to stay at Hampton by Hilton because here's here's is something you got to know about me. I cannot function in the morning unless I have breakfast. And before I was staying in Hampton by Hilton's, I would have to like order breakfast.

and I don't know if any of you have stayed in a hotel lately and had to order breakfast, but you can order like an oatmeal and it's $75. And there's all the gratuity and everything involved. And then you got to wait a half an hour. Not when I stay at Hampton by Hilton because I can walk right downstairs. I get my cup of coffee. I get my regular waffle, which I love. I get a little syrup on there.

And then I always have to have a little protein pre-workout, a little pre-workout protein. And so I get eggs, waffle, coffee. That's how I roll. And I love it because it's the complimentary breakfast and it's hot and it's fresh and it's delicious. So that's why I love it. That's why I love it.

Let's go to the next question in the mailbag. This one comes in from Aiden. He says, good morning, Joel. Good morning. Love the show. With the seeming parody in college football this year, do you think the expanded playoff came a year too late? or does 10 plus teams vying for four spots make it even more exciting?

Hail, hail to Michigan. Okay, Aidan, I think that this is an absolute travesty, that we don't have the 12-team playoff this year because I believe that there are going to be more teams with more beef at the end of the year than ever before. In fact, when I start looking at the end of the season, when I start to look at the path, when you start to put the crystal ball together,

here's what you see. You see that Georgia probably won't get tested. So while they're the defending national champion, two times over. Are we really going to know what Georgia is leading into the playoff? I'm not sure. I think we're going to have to lean on history with Georgia. Florida State has a relatively easy path,

even with the caution flights flashing in our face the entire last month of the season. They remind me so much of the 2014 version of Florida State. And that team was escaping after escape, after escape late in the year before they ultimately got housed by Oregon in that Rose Bowl, which was a national semifinal in the first year of the playoff. That's what it feels like. It feels like we're going to have some teams that are undefeated and get included because they're undefeated that we won't really know about. And then we're going to have teams like, let's say out of the Big Ten East with Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State, like out of the Pack 12 with Washington, Oregon, USC, Utah, UCLA could

throw in there. Washington State. Sorry, I missed out. Washington State. state. And we're going to be looking at like the third place team in the pack and be like, wow, I would love to see what they could do in a playoff. And we're not going to have that chance. So I lament the fact that in the first year in my career covering college football, that we've had this much parity. When I've had 10 teams after the first month that are above the line teams, we still have to be in the sham four team playoff that we're going to have at the end of the year. Aidan, great question. And it brings up a while. lot of frustration for me as I look into the crystal ball at the end of the year.

Last question comes in from Eric. Eric says, and this is a little bit more of the life advice, and I love doing this stuff. So he says, Eric, uh, no, he doesn't say Eric. He says, hey, Joel, there we go. I just graduated college with my bachelor's degree and moved to a new state for a job. I really like this new place, but it doesn't feel like home yet. And after being here for a few months, I'm starting to miss my friends and my home state. I don't feel like my job has lived up to the expectations I had and what they described.

Do you have any advice on this and post-grad life in general? Thank you. I'm excited for this giveaway. Ooh, Eric, more on that in a moment. More on the giveaway in a moment. Okay. Let's talk about this for a quick second. If you're a post-grad and you are starting out your life as a professional, there are so many things that I can tell you.

Here's what I would tell you that I'm starting to realize for myself. And some smart guys that I talk to will tell you this. Number one is, if you draw your identity in where you live or what you do, it will fall short. It will not fulfill you. So if you're looking to those things for your happiness personally, that's not going to come to fruition. Okay. That's number one. So what do you do about it?

Well, Eric, I think that you have to clearly define who you want to be and what your goals are in life. You've got to picture your life 10 and 20 years down the road. And you've got to think to yourself, what do I want to be doing? What do I value? Do I value having a family? Do I value having a successful career? Do I value the place that I live? Do I value the climate in which that place is?

What do you find important? Because just like a team has to know itself before it can know where it's going to go or how it's going to get there. Because remember, I say this about teams all the time. Who are you? Where are you going? How are you going to get there? Well, you've got to clearly define for yourself what you want. And then once you clearly define that for yourself, then you can start to build your life into that mold.

Now, a couple of things that I would also tell you. Number one, don't be afraid of new places. I think that young people, they can get too anxious with where opportunities are, where they're comfortable, where they know people, and they can fall into a rut of being comfortable versus going out and pushing themselves forward. I never thought I would leave Denver, Colorado. Now, I did for minor league baseball. I married the love of my life. We had a beautiful baby boy named Henry. And when he was just over a year old,

I lived by my in-laws. I lived by my parents. I lived by all of my siblings, all of my wife's siblings, all of them. They were all there within like 10 miles. We had like, it was like Fox Sports calls and says, hey, we want you to move to Los Angeles. I'll be honest, it was incredibly difficult.

It was incredibly difficult, but we were open to it. We were open to the challenge and we moved there. And while living in Los Angeles wasn't my cup of tea, we ended up finding a place here in Orange County in Newport Beach. And guess what? I couldn't envision my life anywhere else. Now we have three children. We love the school that the boys go to.

My wife loves her community. I love my community. We love our community. We found a church that we love and a group that builds life into us. None of that would have been possible if we would have put comfort over the challenge. And so I would just tell people like, don't be afraid to take on a challenge. Don't be afraid to step out of your comfort zone. Don't be afraid to not allow your surroundings to define you.

Those are all the things that I would say. You know, the rigidness that young people can have based on their comfort, I think is a detriment to their growth as people moving forward. So Eric, I don't know if any of that speaks to you, but I would just tell you, life is a great journey, man, and you got to know who you are before you can know where you want to go. All right. That's going to do it for the mailbag.

And I just wanted to let you guys know it is my favorite time of year. It's football season, as you know. I take it seriously. So when I'm traveling on the road to watch my favorite teams, I can't risk calling the wrong play with where I stay. Wherever I go, I know that I can count on Hampton by Hilton. I can depend on their comfortable rooms and their warm and friendly service. And their free hot breakfast, game changer, as I just told you in the mailbag.

Whether you're cheering on your team from the stands or never leaving the tailgate, Hampton by Hilton will always give you that win. I told you we were giving away hats, and it's true. I have got five Rose Bowl hats to give away. You can't buy them. You can't get them anywhere else. This is it, folks. I've got five Rose Bowl hats, and here's how you could win one of these fire Rose Bowl hats.

Subscribe to this show on YouTube and wherever you listen to your podcast. Has to be both. You also, wherever you get your podcasts, have to leave us a review. Now, just going to say, probably helps if it's positive. just saying because we can see them and we can read them. We know who subscribes. We know if you're a subscriber on both YouTube and where you listen to your podcast. So you've got to subscribe to both.

You've got to leave a review. Those of you that already have done this, you are in the pool. Don't worry. We know who you are. Leave us a review. And then next Wednesday, next Wednesday, we will be selecting five winners from that group of people. Five winners get a Rose Bowl hat next Wednesday. All you got to do, subscribe to YouTube,

subscribe wherever you listen to this show on podcasts platforms, leave a review on those podcast platforms. It helps if it's positive. And we'll tell you who gets the hats next week. I can't wait. I'm looking at them right here. I've got the five. There is a gray and a white.

In fact, standby, stand by. Hold on. Hold on. I'm just going to. just want to show you guys each hat. Boom. There's one. Hold on. Hold on. We got Rose Bowl hats. Yeah. Yep. Subscribe. Both places. Leave a review. Probably helps if you follow us on social media. Just saying. Agile Clashio, wherever you like to social media. Thanks to the staff, everybody at Fox Sports Digital. You guys are fantastic. We'll be back tomorrow with game previews, maybe some picks,

But definitely game previews. That's tomorrow. Can't wait for that one. You guys are the best. College football is the best. Love it.