The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Klatt’s Post-Spring Top 25 Rankings for the 2023 Season

Episode Date: May 15, 2023

FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt reveals his post-spring Top 25 rankings for the upcoming college football season.  With several top teams still sorting out their QB situations, Joel breaks down why he still has faith in teams like Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama to stay at the top while Michigan finds itself with the luxury of a very experienced returning roster. He also dives into why he is encouraged by what is happening at USC and Clemson but offers caution for a program like Florida State who is coming off a surprising 10-win season. Texas and Oklahoma also find places in his Top 25 as they look to reclaim their spots at the top of the Big 12. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Hey, welcome into the program, everybody. It is the Joel Clatt Show, and I am Joel Clatt. Thank you, as always, for joining us. Remember, always follow the show, subscribe, great review us, do all those fun things. You can follow us on social media, any social media platform out there at Joel Clat show. You can follow me personally on Twitter at Joel Platt or on Instagram at Joel underscore Clat. Lots going on in the world of college football. And I wanted to just take a moment here as we've seen spring football now we've got the draft we've got the transfer portal the spring spring portion of it at least kind of wrapped up for the most part and i wanted to just take let's take a snapshot of like where are we at okay so i wanted to do a post-spring top 25 on today's show and i think it'll change a little bit maybe before next season you know how i feel about preseason rankings but again this is a a good opportunity to take a snapshot because things in the offseason in college football change dramatically and much more dramatically than they ever have in the past. So we've got to be able

to take these snapshots, whether it's right after the season, right before spring ball, right after that first transfer portal window and high school recruiting. And now after spring ball and after the spring portal window, what is the snapshot of college football? Has anything changed? So let's go through it. Now, normally, as you know, the suspense builds to one, but there is no suspense at one, so we're actually going to go one to 25. So those of you who are just wondering if your team is creeping in, that'll be in just a moment, because we're going to start one to 25. Let's get into it. First and foremost, I want to tell you that when I rank teams, and this happens, by the way, in the fall, I do this by the

tiers. And to me, there's always a pool of teams that have separated themselves or are in a separate category. And then I look at those in a snapshot and I start to parse out how I'm going to rank them. Well, for me, the top tier in college football really is four certainly, but this year I think five teams. And so I'm going to go through these top five and you have to know that nobody else was considered for me in the top five except for these. that I'll go through here right now. Number one is easy. We all know this, and they're going to be, I believe, a pretty consensus number one,

unless people want to be, you know, hot-takey and outlier with their rankings. Georgia is going to be the number one team of the country in this post-spring edition, and rightly so. They're loaded, back-to-back national championships, and you can claim all you want, like, well, they don't have a quarterback. That just makes it interesting. I still trust Kirby Smart and Georgia and everything that they've done, in particular because of what they've got from a talent perspective.

If you look over the cycle of recruiting, and I always look at about four years, and I understand it's going to change with the transfer portal and how are we looking at overall recruitings versus high school recruiting rankings. But if you do look at high school recruiting rankings, you go back and in the last four cycles, they're second, their third, they're fourth, and they're first. This is a team that's going to be loaded, and they will be loaded for the foreseeable future. And it's not like they're getting rid of, well, getting rid,

replacing, I should say, it's not like they're replacing a world beater at quarterback. You know how I feel about Stetson Bennett. He played great, he had great statistics, he gets to New York, and you know what, good for him. But this is not a guy that's going to be overly difficult to replace. I think that they will be able to replace him and they're going to continue to be a dominant force in college football. Number two, and this is where it gets a little bit interesting, because other teams do also have to break in new quarterbacks. and while I trust them to do so, similarly to Georgia, I do look at the returning pieces at Michigan, and I think to myself, you know what?

In the post-spring, post-spring transfer portal window, I think Michigan still remains my number two team in the country going into next year. They've got so much talent coming back, and this is a team that has been the best team in the Big Ten over the last two years. They're great on the offensive line. They're great on the defensive line. They can run. They've got probably, I would consider him,

one of the best corners in college football, if not the best in Will Johnson, even though he's not going to be able to come out in the draft because he's just going to be a true sophomore. They've got Mike Sainer still in the back end. They've got Junior Colson. Their defense is going to be fantastic. Then you look at the offensive side. They have reloaded on the offensive line in the transfer portal, as well as developed what they've already had. Sharon Moore is an excellent offensive line coach slash offensive coordinator.

J.J. McCarthy is going to. to be a year older. Blake Corum's coming back. Donovan Edwards is coming back. They've got all those Roman Wilson on the, this team is going to be really, really good. So Michigan is going to be number two. And by the way, they're now recruiting at a really high level. If you look at the 2024 rankings, at least as far as high school rankings ago, Michigan, number one, after a cycle in which I didn't feel like they took advantage in recruiting this last year of their success over the last two years, they're taking advantage now. Number one in the country and the recruiting rankings,

number two in my post-spring poll here, top 25. Number three is going to be Ohio State. Ohio State, let's just put it to you this way. If Ohio State had a returning quarterback, they would be number one. Because I actually think at a top-end level, when you look at draftable players going into next year, the 2025 draft, I guess that would be, no, 2024 draft. Does that that be a 25 draft?

24 draft. You look at the 24 draft, it's littered. There's five or six guys from Ohio State in the top 25. You know, they're going to have four or five, maybe even six players drafted in the first round. They're loaded. And by the way, all over, you've got cornered, defensive tackle, you've got two defensive ends in there. You've got a guard. You've got a wide receiver.

You've got a running back. So this talent isn't concentrated in one area like it's been over the last couple of years in the wide receiver position, I think it's more spread out for Ohio State. Now, will Kyle McCord be the quarterback? I don't know. Ben Brown? I'm not sure. I think it's going to be Kyle McCord. I will say I do trust Ryan Day and his ability to develop quarterbacks. Look at what Ohio State has had since he stepped on campus as the offensive coordinator. Hard to argue with what he's developed at the quarterback position. All the last three guys have been first-round draft picks.

So is Kyle McCord probably going to play well? Yeah, he's probably going to play well. Ryan has a unique ability to get the most out of his quarterback. Remember, Justin Fields was his first quarterback in the last decade that had had a second year in the system. He had a different quarterback every single year of his system for like eight straight years until Justin Fields played that second year. Now he had Fields for two years.

Now he's got CJ for two years. And it looks like you'll have Kyle for two, maybe two, maybe even more. But Ohio State is right there. Again, top end talent. I'm so impressed with there. At number four, I've got Alabama. Now, Alabama could have been number three, but I think Ohio State is more comfortable with their quarterback position than Alabama.

There's no other way to get around it. Alabama is not comfortable with what they had in spring ball, so that's why they had to bring in Tyler Buckner. I've been over this, as you know. Am I concerned for Alabama? No, I'm not concerned. Now, is it a bit eyebrow-raising? Yes, obviously. Tyler Buckner wouldn't be there unless they feel like they needed something. And by the way, Tommy Reese wouldn't tell him to come there and play there unless he thought he was going to play. This is a relationship that has obviously begun at Notre Dame when Tommy Reese was the offensive coordinator for Buckner last year with the Irish.

Is he going to tell him like, hey, come down here and just compete or be like, hey, man, we need you. come down here and play. Buckner's not going to transfer to go sit. So you can read between the lines as far as the communication between Buckner's old coach and Buckner and why he lands at Alabama. So am I concerned? No. Is this going to be a topic moving into the fall? Yes. And it's the reason I've got them just behind Ohio State because Ohio State didn't need to bring in a transfer quarterback after spring. And then the fifth team in this top tier is Penn State. Penn State's loaded. This is the best team that James Franklin has had since they won the Big Ten championship game. They got these two young running backs that we talked a lot about last year. They're fantastic, the best tackle in

college football, and Olu Faschinoo, and a new quarterback in Drew Aller, who a lot of people are excited for. This is a defense that it's going to continue to be very solid. They have been for a long time, but they will continue to be very solid. I'm very interested in Drew Aller. This is the type of guy that I think could be a top end talent. I think he could have a sophomore campaign similar to what we saw from Drake May a year ago. So that's something to watch for when we're watching this Big Ten, and in particular the Big Ten East, because here I've got all three of these teams, Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State,

ready to go all in the top five. Now I get to my next tier, okay? And the next tier is also five schools, and I didn't really... There was one team that I might have included in the next tier, but this next tier is another group of five schools, and it was very clear to me after spring, after the spring transfer portal window, who was going to be the top team in my next tier? And that's number six and it's USC. You know exactly, if you've listened to this show for any length of time, you know exactly how I feel about Lincoln Riley and USC.

Amazing offense. They've built exactly what they have at Oklahoma. And yet, this same issue kept arising, which is what are you? you on defense? Are you good enough on defense? Do you play requisite defense to win a championship? And up to this point, the answer was no. Up to this point, the answer was no. But they've added real defensive players. Look at what they did on the defensive line. Bear Alexander and Anthony Lucas from the SEC. They got Mason Cobb from Oklahoma State. All right. So there's been a lot of people that have said, like, hey, is, as Alex Grinch, the guy, as defensive coordinator, well, we're

to find out because I do think that they've got really good players based on what happened in the transfer portal. We know Caleb Williams. So when you combine the fact that I think that they're going to be better on defense and they have Caleb Williams, who is the Heisman Trophy winner, one of the best quarterback prospects we've seen in a long time, they've got something that number six. LSU is going to be number seven. They're the next team in that second tier. I trust Brian Kelly. He's one of the best coaches in America. I really like Jaden Daniels and what he brings. I think that they're going to be talented around Jaden Daniels. I think that this team is a team that when I looked at last year and I saw the things that they were able to do well,

the things that they struggled with, it was a maturation process. And it was something that I could see trending in a positive direction. And I think that they're going to be a very good team this next year. At number eight, I've got Florida State. I like Jordan Travis after a breakout season. I like Mike Norvell a lot. Here's one thing that I would just say. Just a bit of caution on Florida State.

I'm going to put them in there in that next year at 8. This is a high ranking, and I think it's about as high as they maybe deserve. Because, listen, in the last five years, they were nothing before a pop. So what you have to fight against is this being a blip on the radar. Was the double-digit wins a blip on the radar? Or was it something that we can expect year over year?

Remember, in the last, what, four or five years, the most wins that they had had was six in any given season. So it was a slow build for Norville, but it needs to stick now. And that stickingness is where I'm questioning this. I'm going to throw an asterisk down beside Florida State. If there's one team in the top 10 that I would say, like, who would you bet on as the most likely to not be in the top 10 at the end of the year? It would probably be Florida State because of what I'm talking.

talking about. At number nine, it's Washington. Boy, he doesn't get a lot of attention, but he should be probably third to fourth on the odds in terms of winning the Heisman trophy this next year, and that's Michael Pinnock's their quarterback. If he stays healthy for Kalin DeBore, they've got the wide receivers, and I think that they've got the schedule to go out there and do some damage. So I like Washington a lot. I think Washington's going to be a really good team. And then the last team in the second tier is going to be Tennessee. And Tennessee, similarly to Florida State has got to prove to me that this is not a blip on the radar, that this is not a one-off that they were able to go out there and win 10 games.

If you look at their offense under Josh Heipel, this is a very wide receiver-centric offense and quarterback-centric offense. They've got to replace their two best wide receivers and their quarterback. That can be difficult to do. Is it going to be Joe Milton? I think it's going to be Joe Milton. This guy has an amazing arm at times. I don't know whether he's going to throw up five euros up.

into the stands or he's going to throw an absolute dime into a small window. That accuracy has got to get better. I've seen this guy ever since he was a young quarterback at Michigan. Very talented. I think he can do it, but we'll have to wait and see there. Okay, now let's get into the next tier of teams. And it's really from here until the end of the top 25. But if you really look at it, there was about 10 teams that I'm really looking at between 11 and 20. And I'm thinking to myself, okay, there's one team that jumps out at me as a team that's earned the top spot in this third tier, which is the 11th ranked team after the spring, Utah. Utah is back-to-back Pac-12 champions. They've been to the Rose Bowl two straight years. Kyle Winningham has built something

that is very sustainable with, I believe, 10 wins in three of the last four years. This is a really good team with their quarterback returning, with the running back returning. You know the defense is always going to be very good. Utah's not going anywhere. So that's why Utah is going to get the benefit of the doubt. They're going to land right there in the 11 spot. I really like what they bring back. Cam Rising, I trust. They've got Keithy coming back, so I don't think the Kincaid loss is going to hurt as much as people think. But that's why I've got Utah right there. The next team I really trust is Oregon. One, because they've recruited at a high level, but they also have their quarterback back. Bo Nix is going to be in there in the top five in terms of Heisman

Trophy odds to start the year, and rightly so. The one concern I do have for Oregon is they've got to replace four offensive linemen, and this is a team that was very offensive line and run game centric in front of Bo Nix. It kept him clean for the most part, although he struggled with some injuries during the course of the year. Oregon's going to be very talented. I think that they're going to have a solid defense, but they've got to replace those guys and develop up front in order to get it really going up front in terms of running the ball, which is what they want to do. All right. Number 13, I've got Notre Dame. Listen, Notre Dame is going to be upgraded at quarterback. I think Sam Hartman is an upgrade for Notre Dame at quarterback. This guy

threw 110 touchdown passes at Wake. He's a good player. This is better than what they had, which, by the way, read between the lines if Tyler Buckner is starting for Alabama and he was the starter last year for Notre Dame. And I'm telling you that Notre Dame is now upgraded at quarterback with Sam Hartman. That tells you, I think that Notre Dame's in a better position right now at quarterback than Alabama, which I think is interesting. I think Notre Dame is is going to be very good on the offensive line. They're going to be upgraded at quarterback, and they needed to be because their offense was not very good last year, and I do still believe that they're going to be

solid on the defensive side with Marcus Freeman. Now let's get into 14. 14 is going to be Clemson, and I just want to sit for a moment on Clemson. So Clemson is in a point in their natural evolution. They got to the mountaintop, and they've had a little bit of a lull now. Well, they're starting, they've lost assistant coaches. There's these little, you know, this is what makes it so difficult to win championships over cycles of recruits or coaches. This is what makes Nick Sabin so special, is that it's difficult to do it.

Just ask Davosweeney. They're suffering through a little bit of a low. Now, are they still elite? Absolutely. Are they still going to be great on defense? Yes. Are they as talented out at wide receiver? Probably not of what they've been in the past.

I do like Clubnik a lot at Clemson, but here's the key. I think Dabo is doing the right thing and going out there and trying to bring in an outside voice to jumpstart, spark the offense, and really his entire program by bringing in Garrett Riley. It really reminds me of what Bob Stoops did after an eight-win season when he brought in Lincoln Riley to Oklahoma, and all of a sudden they went on a nice run. They won 11 games each of the next two years, and then all of a sudden Riley was the head coach, and then Riley took them to the playoffs. This seems like that type of a move,

that this is going to invigorate this program and more specifically this offense, which quite frankly had become a little bit watered down and basic. And they need this. They need this in a bad way. And I think it could be something to watch for. I do like Clemson, and I love the Garrett Riley influence there as their offensive coordinator.

Now, the place that he left, and the reason I've got Clemson right above TCU is because he left, And so TCU falls right there to number 15. Now, 15 might be high. This is the benefit of the doubt that I think Sunday Dikes is a very good coach. It's their culture. It's the fact that they had a great year. Could they fall off just like I was talking about with Tennessee and FSU?

Yeah, maybe. Remember, Tennessee hadn't had a 10-win season since 2007, and then all of a sudden they jumped up with a double-digit win season. Last year, TCU out of nowhere wins a bunch of close games. Here they are in the national championship. Could that go the opposite direction? Sure. But I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Remember, Chandler Morris was a starting quarterback to begin the season last year. So I don't feel like they, let's just say, I don't feel like they are starting at ground zero at quarterback, replacing Max Duggan. At number 16, I've got Oregon State. Why is Oregon State 16th, Joel? Jonathan Smith is their head coach. It's not actually about DJU, DJU Ungilele. It's more about Jonathan Smith. I think he's one of the most underrated coaches.

America. They are incredibly sound. They run it well. They're physical at the point of attack. I like what they do at the line of scrimmage. That's a culture that I trust with Jonathan Smith as their head coach. And so I've got them at 16. I think that that is a good program that nobody really looks at, that nobody really talks about. So this is a Jonathan Smith ranking. All right, 17, against my better judgment, and partly because there were some holes with some teams coming up in the next few, Texas is going to be at 17. And Texas is going to be at 17 primarily because of their overall talent, what they were able to do in the portal, and I think that Quinn Ewers is the type of a player that if he plays at the level we saw him at against Alabama and some other teams, they're going to win a lot of football games.

Now, again, am I going to talk about Texas in any type of high regard until they earn it? No, I'm not going to. Now, do I think that they should be a top 25 team? Yes, based on their overall talent and what they've been able to do and why I'm ranking some of these other teams, then yes, Texas is going to be in there. Quinn Ure's, Xavier Worthy, they're talented, right? They're better at the line of scrimmage than they've been in a number of years, maybe a decade. And I think that's probably going to help them more than anything.

I'm going to stay in the Big 12 for the next couple. I like Kansas State at 18. Kansas State wins the Big 12 last year. Climman gets his contract extended, so good for him. Will Howard is a guy I really like. I like this Treshawn Ward, the Florida State transfer tailback. I think that he's a really good player. And this is a program that we should never underestimate.

So I've got Kansas State in there at 18. Oklahoma is going to be at 19, and I thought about moving them up a little bit higher because I like a lot of the pieces that Oklahoma has. Oklahoma went 0 and 5 in one score games last year. So basically the exact opposite of TCU. Now they're bringing their quarterback back in Dylan Gabriel. They got way better in the transfer portal, by the way, in particular on the defensive side. You've got Deshaun McCullough, Jacob Lacey, Andrew Lannany, the wide receiver from Michigan, Reggie Pearson. were fourth in the country in high school were recruiting, including five-star safety, including,

by the way, four, what is it, three players in the top 16 in the country. Oh, you could have a big splash season. If there was a team in the top 10 that I would say, like, if I had to bet they wouldn't be in the top 10 at the end of the year, it'd be Florida State. If there was a team 10 to 20, that I would put an asterisk in, I would say, if you had to bet at a team entering the top 10 by the end of the year, who would it be? I would say Oklahoma. The fact that they lost those one-score games, I believe that they're going to be a riser. I think they can get back to double digits, and I think that they're a pretty good team. I like what Brent Pinnibald's is doing.

At 20, I've got Ole Miss. Quintan Junkins, love him. Obviously, he was fantastic. They've got four offensive linemen starters returning for Lane Kiffin. The quarterback situation is a little wonky, right, with Jackson Dart and Spencer Sanders and who is it, Walker Howard, the LSU transfer. so I don't know exactly who's going to be there, but similar to, let's say, a Ryan Day or a Lincoln Riley, I know he's corky, but Lane Kiffin always gets quality quarterback play,

and his offenses can always go out there and score some points, so I like Ole Miss at 20. I'm fine with that. And then you get to kind of my last tier, and these are the teams that kind of sneak into the top 25, and we'll start with number 21, and that is North Carolina. And they are the top of that next tier because of one, name, Drake May. I trust him. I love him as a player. Got to see him and meet him in preparation for

the Holiday Bowl, a game that they eventually lost to Oregon. But man, he was fantastic. In fact, I was talking with Dan Landing not too long ago, a few weeks ago, and we were talking about that game, the Holiday Bowl. And he not only said like, hey, we had a great time at the Holiday Bowl, because the Holiday Bowl is awesome and they do a great job. But also, he was like, dude, Drake May is unbelievable. I was like, I know. He made some throws in that game that not many people in the country can make. Maybe only Caleb Williams is the only other guy that can make some of those plays, and that's why we talk about him in generational standards.

They added a couple transfer wide receivers to give him targets, and we'll see if that pays off. At 22, I've got Iowa. Iowa could be a total fiasco this next year, with the whole Brian Ferrence has to score 25 points. I mean, that's not fair to Cade McNamara, and yet here they are a defense that's always good, best defense over the last couple of years in college football outside of Georgia, which was on a totally different level.

Here's Iowa. They're absolutely going to be fantastic on defense. We know that. And they should be better on offense. Like, this is a team that should threaten in the Big Ten. They should. But they've got this arbitrary mark of 25 points. You're telling me that they're not going to take like, hey, you're winning every game by like 21 to 10.

Whoa, you're not averaging 25 points. Who cares? Who cares? I think that this is going to put an undue pressure on the play caller, Brian Farrant, it's going to put undue pressure on Cade McNamara and the rest of the offense. This could be a total fiasco at Iowa. Second worst in the FBS last year, they scored 17.7 points per game. And now you put some arbitrary number out there.

It's not going to help anybody. But great defense. Kirk is still there. I think that's going to be an interesting one. I put them just ahead of Wisconsin just because Kirk is still there, whereas you're going to get the new coaching staff at Wisconsin. While I think Luke Fickle is going to do great, it's interesting. Not to mention, Tanner Mordecai comes in.

I think he's going to be an upgrade at quarterback. And then, sorry, Badger fans, he threw four picks in the spring game. And you've got to be thinking to yourself like, oh, my gosh, Graham Mertz 2.0. Like, please just give us a quarterback that doesn't turn the ball over. So that was fascinating there. Remember now, this is a team that's going to get a new coordinator and a new identity on offense with Phil Longo. I like Tanner Mordecai. They've still got some talent on that side, obviously, at running back with Braylon Allen.

And I think Luke Fickle will do a nice job. This is a really good head coach. You saw what he did at Cincinnati. He took them to a playoff. And so now they're sitting there at 23. At 24, I've got Texas Tech. Beto, UN, Texas last year, won eight games. Joey McGuire is doing good things in recruiting.

And then the last thing that I would say is like when Tyler Shuck was their quarterback, they were much better. When he went down, they would struggle a little bit. Talking with Joey at some of the spring meetings, Coach McGuire told me like, hey, I feel really good about my quarterback. And he should, right? They were right there, save for some injuries. Now, they have to replace some top in talent on the defense. That's fine. He's recruited very well.

That's a team that I think could easily be a top 25 team. And then to bring up the last team in the top 25, I'm going to go with UCLA. Chip Kelly is going to have to coach. at UCLA for the first time without Dorian Thompson Robinson. So DTR is not there. Do I think that they're going to be all right? Yeah. They run the ball really well. They've done a good job in development. They've done a good job in the transfer portal overall. The transfer portal is where they've kind of lived because they have not done a great job in terms of recruiting high school talent, although they did get the five-star Dante Moore, the quarterback, well, I think

could be an interesting option at quarterback, along with that battle with Ethan Garbers. So UCLA, I think Chip is a heck of a coach. I think he's built something that is more sustainable at UCLA than previous coaches, and they're going to be in there in the top 25. If you had to ask me, who were the teams that you were considering putting in that top 25 that did not make it? It would be a list of about 05 teams. South Carolina is in that list. I would put Tulane, Texas A&M, North Carolina State, probably,

UTSA as well, Texas San Antonio. So those were the teams that were in there for consideration. So there you have it. There's the top 25 post-spring edition here for the Joel Klatt show. This will change a little bit as we get nearer the season, but this gives you a little bit of a snapshot after some of these transfers left. Where are my mind's at as we're going into the season here in college football? Should be a great season.

I'm really excited. Obviously, Big Ten East is going to be loaded. The SEC is still going to be loaded. And then I think USC is going to have a better opportunity. to compete at the highest playoff level. So if you're looking at the top end to college football, I think that there's some excitement that you're going to get coast-to-coast competition.

The Big Ten is going to be very strong. It's not just going to be a conversation about the SEC. They're still going to be great, obviously, with Georgia and Alabama and even a team like LSU, but there's some parity right now across the nation in college football for this year that I think is really going to help, and I think that's benefit or, I should say,

the reason we have that is twofold. The portal and NIL is starting to disperse talent a little bit in a way that it wasn't previously. Okay, so that's going to do it. Listen, thank you for listening, as always. Follow us at Joel Clat Show on any of the social media. Rate, review us, subscribe to the podcast so you know when new episodes drop. We'll be back next Monday with some more post-spring thoughts here on college football. As we inch closer towards our summer series, we're going to have a great series,

big noon conversations with some of the best voices and biggest and most influential voices in all of college football. That'll drop later in June. Can't wait for that. So pay attention and we'll have more info as we're coming up on that during the course of the year. Thank you for listening, as always, and I hope you have a great week.