The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Klatt’s reaction to the first College Football Playoff Rankings of the season

Episode Date: November 5, 2025

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the first set of College Football Playoff Rankings and gives his biggest takeaways. He points out how the Committee is telling us that Texas is in a great position to make the field and may not even need to win the rest of their games to do so. He also breaks down why the Big 12 should feel really good about getting multiple bids while the ACC is not so fortunate. Klatt applauds the committee for their valuation of the second tier of the Big Ten and lays out how the Committee has shown that a 4th spot for the Big Ten is there for the taking. He wraps up the show by making his picks for which team inside the current bracket could find itself on the outside by season’s end and which team currently on the outside is going to be playing football in the College Football Playoff when it’s all set in December. 0:00-2:19 Intro2:20-4:10 Klatt reacts to the first set of CFP rankings for 20254:11-9:30 Surprised Texas is #11 despite recent close games?9:31-14:18 Will the Big 12 get multiple CFP bids?14:19-18:46 How should the Big Ten feel about getting a fourth team into the CFP?18:47-21:17 The committee hates the ACC21:18-27:24 Who could fall out & who has the best chance to jump into the bracket? Use my code for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/KLATT10Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $20 discount Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Texas at 9 and 3 is absolutely alive. I forgot about that narrative behind closed doors about valuing non-conference opponents. Teams like Washington and Iowa and USC have been vastly underrated by the AP, and the committee, I think, is more properly evaluating the Big Ten Conference. Welcome into the program. This is Joel Clatchew. I'm Joel Clad. This show is brought to you by the graduate by Hilton. We very much thank them for their support.

Go stay at a graduate. They're awesome in all of these college towns. We've got playoff rankings. Finally, this is always the best time of year. Obviously, we love it when the college football season starts. But this is like the second beginning of the season. I love this moment in time because we get to see something that's real. You know, we all have our takeaways from the AP poll and what we think is.

But this is where the rubber meets the road as the committee gives us their first rankings here. And we've got a month left in the season. And gosh, I'm just reminded, guys, how great the 12-team playoff is. We knew it last year, and it gave us an incredible month into the season, November. And it's going to do that again. There's so many teams that are still right in the mix of this thing. And we get that now that we've got our first playoff rankings. Hey, if you have not subscribed to the show, please go do that over on YouTube.

Get down into the comments. As you know, I jump down in the comments during the week, like to mix it up a little bit. All of you saying, hey, oh, you ran the football fine. No, you didn't watch the film. They did not run the football fine. One 50-yard run at the end of the game does not mean that you ran the football fine during the course of the game against Tennessee. But I digress. Okay, so get down into the comments below and I'll jump down there as much as I can. Also, follow us on social media. All of our content lives on social media wherever you like to social media. You're out and about. You're on TikTok. You're on X, whatever it is, Instagram.

We're there. All you've got to do, find us at Joel Clatshow, and we are there on social media. Let's get into this. Here's what we're going to do. I'm going to give you the top 25 as they were presented by the committee on Tuesday night. And then I've got five main takeaways from this first iteration of the committee's rankings. And granted, we know that this can change and likely will change at some point, obviously with wins and losses and sometimes just how the committee feels. let's face it. Like we've seen them move quite a bit in previous years just week to week. So is this going to be, you know, tried and true for the rest of the time? No. But we're starting to see a little bit of a philosophy. And again, every time they give us a ranking, they give us a bit of their fingerprint, their DNA, how they're valuing teams, how they're valuing,

you know, the wins, the losses, the strength of schedule, so on and so over the eye test. all of that matters, and they tend to leave little nuggets for us along the way during the course of these rankings. So here we go. The top 25 playoff rankings, the first playoff rankings, here's what they gave to us. Tennessee was in there at 25, and then you've got the litany all the way up to number one Ohio State just over Indiana and Texas A&M. Now, rather than rattle all of them off there. Well, I guess for the audio, folks, Tennessee's, you know what, that's just going to take too long. So I'm not going to rattle them all off.

But I am going to give you these five main takeaways. And what I'm going to do here is go back to the top 25 each point and then draw your attention to one area of these rankings. And then let's discuss why those are such a big deal. Now, the top 10 is Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas Tech, BYU, Ole Miss, Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Alabama, Indiana, Indiana, and Ohio State, $10. one. Just on the outside of that is where we're going to start because I thought that the biggest takeaway from these rankings is Texas at 11. Now, that tells us a lot about how the committee is valuing not only Texas, but obviously the SEC, and rightly so. But them at 11, I think, is going to draw some people's ire. And it's also going to solidify what others think about what Texas is and what

they could be during the course of the back end of the season. Here's what I would say. I get it. When I see where they're sitting, I absolutely get it. Number one, their loss was the opening week of the season, one of their losses, to Ohio State on the road, which is right now the number one team in the country as the committee views it. And there's been a lot of discussion in college football about, and not even like publicly. I'm talking about behind closed doors, amongst the commissioners, amongst the committee, and how they should view teams, and more particularly, how they should view non-conference games. And here's something that you have to understand is that behind closed doors, the strong push is to make sure that we're valuing teams

that schedule difficult non-conference games. Well, Texas scheduling the Ohio State game, the committee is not going to want to knock them for that. They're not going to want to put them down for losing that game on the road, the opening week of the season with a brand new quarterback. Now, some people agree with that. That's fine. I agree with that. We need to get to a place in college football where we encourage games like that in the non-conference. Because if we're just going to penalize a team like Texas for playing that game and losing that game, then we're going to lose that game on the schedule. And we don't want that in college football. So I think that we've got to start there is that we've got to understand.

that behind closed doors, the power brokers in college football, want to value that game being played first and foremost. So losing that game is not going to hurt Texas all that much. That's one of the reasons that are sitting there at 11 right now. I halfway expected them to be over Notre Dame, although Notre Dame scheduled those difficult games also early in the season. Their two losses, Texas A&M and Miami. So I get it where Texas is ranked.

And candidly, I don't disagree with it. And here's the other thing that you start to realize. when you look at those rankings, you see who's above Texas, who is behind Texas, namely OU right behind them at, what was that, 12, and Utah right behind OU at 13. Then you've got that litany of ACC teams, Virginia, Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Miami from 14 to 18 with Vandy mixed in. And you start to realize, like, hey, those teams aren't going to pass Texas. And guess what?

Texas has so much ammunition left on their schedule that them being at a lot of right now, they're still in a good position, whether they went out or not. Now, they can't go eight and four, obviously. But they still have two monster games in the SEC right now, left on their schedule in their last three. They've got to go to Georgia, November 15th. Then they're going to have Arkansas at home and Texas A&M at home. So bang, two top five opponents as the committee sees them with Georgia sitting there at five. So, So this ranking, the first thing that jumped out at me right when I saw this ranking is, hey, Texas at 9 and 3 is absolutely alive, if not almost certainly in.

Now, someone would have to fall out of that, but there are some teams that you could see maybe losing a game or two down the stretch that are above them and opening up a spot for Texas in the playoff. Main takeaway, number one takeaway. Texas as a 9 and 3 as a 9 and 3 as a the committee is telling us is absolutely alive for the playoff. Now, I've argued that 9 and 3 is not going to get in, but again, if you, and I should have realized this before and candidly, it's my bad, and I'm frustrated about it, but I just, I forgot about that narrative behind closed doors about valuing non-conference opponents and scheduling that game.

There is a model being floated, by the way, in college football. I don't know if it's ever going to take hold that the committee would use to basically provide points based on matchups and wins and strength of schedule. And then you would just make the playoff based on almost a PowerPoint structure and accumulating points. So, for instance, Texas going to Ohio State and losing at Ohio State would get them five points. Whereas if Texas stayed home and played, you know, Louisiana Monroe, even if they won that game, they would get zero points. So it would be more valuable for any team in the country to go on the road and the non-conference play a very good opponent than it would to host somebody, pay them a million, a million and a half dollars just to get a win in the win column. That's being floated. I don't know if it's ever going to take place, but view this rankings through that lens because I don't think that they're going to knock Texas.

and my biggest takeaway, again, is the committee is telling us that a 9-3 Texas team is not only in the mix, but maybe likely in. Okay, let's go back to the rankings now. My number two takeaway. I'm sitting there and I'm seeing these two teams in the top 10 and then bang, a third one pops in inside the top 15. And all of these teams are from the big 12. The committee is really valuing the top of the big 12 right now. You've got BYU at 7, Texas Tech at 8, and Utah at 3.

In fact, when you look at the biggest, the teams that made the biggest jump from the AP to the committee rankings, Utah is right in there. Iowa is a plus six. Utah is a plus four from what the AP poll was telling us. So this value of the Big 12 right now is strong. And I'm sitting there and I'm looking at those two teams in the top 10 and I'm thinking to myself, hold on a sec. BYU and Texas Tech, both being in the top 10, there is a world where both of those teams, get in. You think about Tech is almost a 10-point favorite this week at home against BYU. Let's just say for sake of argument, Tech were to win that game at home, and then BYU wins the

Big 12. And Tech is sitting there as a team that has some marquee wins. Would they still be in the threshold for the playoff mix? Maybe, maybe likely. But the value of the Big 12 is there. And then there's Utah. Utah is sitting there at 13. And I got to tell you, I will, was, it's not that I was surprised. And in particular, once you look at their resume and you realize that they're only two losses or two top 10 teams as the committee sees them in BYU and Texas Tech. But Utah is in a fairly good position. The hard part for Utah is that they don't have a lot left on their schedule. That makes it very different than Texas. Utah is sitting there seven and two. They've got some quality wins. Arizona State is a decent win. Cincinnati is a decent win.

54th strength of schedule. They are 0 and 2 against the top 25. That's going to hurt them. And they don't have a ton left on their schedule as far as like ammunition to really rise up the rankings. So Utah is in a good position, so it seems, but also in a very difficult position because I don't know if they have a lot of room to grow. We might be seeing in this first iteration of the playoff rankings, the ceiling on Utah. Because again, Texas doesn't need to win every game.

and I think they would still stay above Utah. Let's just say sake of argument, Texas were to go nine and three. That would mean that they would have a win either over Georgia on the road or Texas A&M at home. Texas A&M is third. Georgia's fifth. You know, with a win like that, Texas would stay above Utah. So is there a scenario where Utah can get one of these bids? Maybe, maybe.

I do find it a bit precarious because, again, there's a limitation on what they've got ahead of them. they've got at Baylor, Kansas State, at Kansas. So interesting, yes, and could they be 10 and 2? Likely. Will they get in at 10 and 2? Not sure. Not sure. In that case, I don't know if they're sitting there with a top 25 win,

and I don't know if they're going to be winning an argument at 10 and 2 against others that could be there, even a 9 and 3. Oh, you could be 9 and 3. Texas could be 9 and 3. Vandy could be 10 and 2. There's a lot of teams still sitting there. And then there's also some 10 and 2 teams from the big. 10 or potential 10 and two teams from the big 10.

And that's where I want to go back to the rankings and give you my third point. So the first point, Texas at 11. I thought that was huge. Number two, the valuing of the big 12, we could get multiple teams in from the big 12, namely, BYU and Texas Tech, depending on how those games shake out. Again, big one this weekend. Texas Tech hosts BYU. Hey, Clatio fans, it's time to get out and do something fun, whether it's catching a game,

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And I've been saying it the whole time, teams like Washington and Iowa and USC have been vastly underrated by the AP. And the committee, I think, is more properly evaluating the Big Ten Conference. So here's we've got the value of the Big Ten not only at the top with the top two teams in the country being Ohio State and Indiana. Not only a third top 10 team with Oregon, but also this litany of teams from 19 to 23, USC at 19, Iowa at 20, Michigan at 21, Washington at 23. Those four teams give them seven teams in the top 25 and a pretty clear path towards potentially getting a fourth Big Ten. 10 team. We've been talking about this a lot during the course of the year. Is there a team that has a path to be the fourth team in the playoff from the Big 10? Now, that's assuming

that Oregon handles their business, but we're sitting here with USC, Iowa, Michigan, and Washington. You start with Iowa, and I already mentioned this, but Iowa is six spots higher in the CFP rankings than they are in the AP. They're 20th instead of 26th. Oregon at 9, that makes Since, based on the current resume that they're throwing out there, mainly because of what they told us, the committee told us in terms of a lack of big wins. But a resume at 11 and 1 would then include for Oregon a win this weekend at Iowa ranked. A win over USC ranked. A win over Washington ranked.

So Oregon has a tremendous amount of runway still ahead of them. They're sitting there at nine. They've got all these games. I don't even think Minnesota is a team that would be frowned upon by the committee by any stretch of the imagination. So now all of a sudden, this pathway for Oregon to get all the way up into that four, five, or six seed is absolutely there. If they were to handle their business and end up as an 11 and 1, their resume would be outstanding. And they would be passing some of these teams that are ahead of them as they sit here at number nine. The pathway for the teams deeper in the standings,

USC, Iowa, Michigan, and Washington is they have to be 10 and 2. They're all sitting on two losses, so they would have to win out. But every one of them has ammunition to get there. Now, they have to pass a lot of teams. But don't we believe that the ACC is going to chew each other up? Yeah, likely. Those teams, I think, are being properly valued, and then in some cases, even overvalued based on

record. And they're being given a spot based on record versus on quality. Like for instance, for instance, if you were to just line up and play USC and Virginia this weekend, USC is winning that game. Michigan and Virginia. Michigan is winning that game. You know, and you can say this about a lot of teams, but like the ACC is not very strong. And so they're being rightly evaluated and yet still propped up based on just pure record versus quality. Now, if you start to chew that conference up, which I imagine will happen during the course of November because of their lack of quality, then these teams have a pathway. They can potentially jump themselves up into the rankings and be that fourth 10 from the Big 10. And then the last thought on valuing the Big 10 is those

top two teams up there, Ohio State and Indiana. These two teams being giving a lot of respect and rightly so. Talked about their defense, both of their defenses, top 10 defenses. Indiana is maybe the most, at least statistically complete team in the country. They each have a Heisman hopeful at quarterback. They're both really good teams. If you look at their schedule, obviously Ohio State still has Michigan. Indiana has a much easier road down the end of November. These two teams likely both get buys, likely both get buys. And the winner of the Big Ten championship likely gets the number one seed in the playoff. So overall, the committee, my third takeaway,

valuing the Big Ten, and much more so than the AP is. All right, let's go to number four. I was just touching on this. I think it's strong and strong. I know what I said I was going to say here, but I was like, am I really going to say it? I think the committee hates the ACC.

They're not getting two bids. these teams are not getting propped up over the teams ahead of them. Here are the ACC teams in the top 25. Virginia's at 14. Louisville's at 15. Georgia Tech is at 17. Miami's at 18. And Pitt is at 24.

There's almost no way that they're getting a team all the way up to be champion and a second team in a position to go to that game, lose, and still get to the playoff. Excuse me. I just don't see it. I don't see it at all. In particular, when you're looking at this, and if you're watching on YouTube, you see those teams 11 to 13.

They're not passing those teams. Utah does not have a very difficult stretch down the rest of their season. OU still has tough games ahead of them so they can be. be two and one in the last three. Go nine and three. They're staying above those ACC teams. Texas, the same thing. Notre Dame has an easy slate to end this season. They're 10 and two at that point. They're not getting passed by an ACC team. BYU, let's just say, based on the odds, they lose to Texas Tech. They're not falling behind these ACC teams. They're just not. So this league is a one-bid league. It's a mess to see who's actually going to go to the ACC championship.

game, and then whoever wins that game is going to get an obligatory spot. Same with the group of five. I wish that we didn't give these obligatory spots, but you know what? I mean, it is what it is, but it's basically meaning for the rest of the country, you've got 10 spots. You've got 10 because you're going to get thrown in the ACC champ. You're going to get thrown into the group of 6 champ. At this point, it would be Memphis and Virginia based on rankings.

So you've got to be in the top 10. You've got to be in the top 10. And when you look at the top 10, they're all really solidly in the top 10. There's not a lot of teams that you're like, oh, yeah, they've definitely got too much of a difficult schedule. They're going to fall out of the top 10. There's not many of those. And that's going to be my fifth takeaway is like who's going to fall out of this top 10? When I look at that, it's like, listen, Indiana is likely not going to lose before they play against, you know, whoever,

but Ohio State and the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State's biggest thread is going to be Michigan on the road. We know their own four in their last four. So who knows in that game. But again, they'd probably still be in a position to go to the Big Ten championship game. A&M, yes, they still have Texas. But like that's a quality team. Even if they were to lose with the schedule that they've played,

they're not falling way down. Bama, same thing. They've got OU. Even if they lost to Oklahoma, they're not falling out of the top 10. Georgia, even if they lost to Texas. they're not falling out of the top 10. Ole Miss has a schedule that's much more manageable than the other SEC teams down the stretch. So I don't see them losing a game.

They're not falling out of the top 10. So it's like who could fall out? Maybe it's BYU because they've got to go to Texas Tech. Maybe it's Texas Tech because they have to play BYU. It could be one of those big 12 teams. But then you get to the team that I think has the most difficult month of November of anybody outside of Texas. And of course, Texas is behind the line here. Oregon.

Oregon has a ridiculously difficult November. Oregon has to go to Kinnock. It looks like it could be rain, sleet, nasty weather in Iowa on Saturday. They've got a USC team coming to town. And then they've got to go to Washington. So of all the teams in the top 10, the team that I think is actually the most likely to lose a game or maybe even two is Oregon. And I think very highly of Oregon.

And Dan Lannning and that staff and that team, do I think that they're going to lose? Probably not. They're going to be favored in all of those games. But at Washington is a scary proposition. Washington owns Oregon in Husky Stadium. At Iowa is no picnic, in particular with the weather coming in that we're starting to see for Saturday.

So Oregon of the teams in the time, top 10 right now. If I was looking at a team and I was like, I would have to bet on a team something happening and falling out, it would be Oregon. Now, with that being said, could easily be a BYU. If they were to lose to tech in this game and then lose to tech again in the Big 12 championship game, I think BYU would be out at that point. But the remaining schedule is the most daunting for a team like Oregon. And then you start to look at my part of my fifth takeaway is like, well, who's got the best chance to jump into the bracket? And again, we've got right now, because the ACC is not being valued and their champ is just

going to get thrown in there and the group of six is going to get thrown in there. You've got to be in the top 10. And so the team that's just outside of the top 10 right now is the team that has the most likelihood of jumping in and that's Texas. I know I talked about that off the top, but you look at their remaining schedule at Georgia, Arkansas, and Texas A&M. I mean, this is a team that at 9 and 3, in all likelihood, the committee is telling us, is going to be included. So those teams ahead of them have got to take care of business.

Would it help them if Oregon were to stumble? Yes. Would it help them if BYU were to stumble down the stretch, which we saw last year from BYU? Yes, that would obviously help. But that's the team that's outside of the top line. Because remember, even you could argue like, well, oh, you schedule, 9 and 3 should get them in. but you got Texas right there that has a head-to-head victory. So those two teams, you know, at 10 and 2 almost surely are going to get in,

almost absolutely. And then even at 9 and 3, Texas has certainly a path. So who could fall out of the bracket? I mean, Oregon's got a tough November. Who could jump into the bracket? Texas could certainly jump into the bracket with the way the committee is valuing them in these first rankings. Now, I want to talk to you guys down in the comments during the course of the rest of the week

because this stuff is too fascinating to me, and I'm in my own head. So I want to hear from you, who do you think is the most vulnerable that's inside of the top 10 right now? And throw it in there and tell me why. And I'd love to have a big discussion with all of us down there in the comments. Who is the most vulnerable team in the top 10 that is the most likely team to lose here down the stretch and fall out of that spot? And then you could also throw like, who's your team that's going to leap up into that fold? Is it Vandy? Is it, you know, Michigan? Could they beat Ohio State again and be 10 and 2 and get in there? You throw those comments down below. I'm going to try to jump in there and be part of that discussion as we move on

in the week. Listen, I love this stuff. Again, this is almost like the second start of the season as the rankings get released. I so much appreciate you being a part of this show and consuming this show. Please get down into the comments. Please subscribe to the show. Share it with a friend because it's just getting started right now. November is going to be incredible. And again, you look at these rankings. It's like all these teams in the top 25 have a path. Pid has a path to 10 and 2. This is awesome. I love the expanded playoff. I think college football is in such a great spot. And now we just get to talk about it, consume it, enjoy it and love it during the month of November. So I very much appreciate you being a part of it and listening to this show. We will be back

tomorrow. I'm going to have picks and previews for this weekend's game. I'm going to be at Penn State. Indiana travels to Penn State. I'll be covering the Hoosiers there. Obviously, a big one in Kinnick, like we were talking about Oregon and Iowa. We got BYU and Texas Tech. So a lot of games that we got a breakdown on Thursday, I'll be there to do it all with you. And I can't wait to get this thing going through the month of November. I will be with you Thursday. Talk to you then and enjoy the week, everybody.