The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Matt Leinart on USC’s resurgence and Klatt’s Tiers in the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12

Episode Date: September 18, 2024

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt welcomes Big Noon Kickoff Analyst and USC Heisman Trophy Winner Matt Leinart to the show to discuss the Trojans’ hot start to the season before getting into his thoughts and prediction for the upcoming matchup with Michigan in Ann Arbor on Saturday. Klatt then goes around the Big Ten, SEC, ACC and Big 12 and ranks his Top 8 teams in each conference. He then places those teams in Tiers within their conference. He considers which Tier to place teams like Nebraska, Alabama, Michigan and Ole Miss within their respective leagues. Klatt also ranks his Top 5 Group of 5 teams that will be vying for the automatic berth in the College Football Playoff. He finishes the episode by discussing the falls of Florida and Florida State - how they got to this moment and why it’s time for Miami to strike while their two in-state rivals are down. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What are your thoughts on Michigan in preparation for this game? I'm nervous. I'm nervous for USC. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again.

Hey, what's up, everybody? Welcome into the program. This is Joel Clat show, and I am Joel Clatt. And we are, as always, presented by Hampton, by Hilton. We've got a pack show for you today. Matt Leinert's going to join us, talk a lot about USC. I've got conference talk. I'm going to rank teams in their tiers in each conference.

So we're going to get to a ton of teams in this show. Some thoughts on Florida and Florida State at the end. But first, remember, wherever you listen to this show, make sure that you're following us, rate and review the show, por favor. And then if you're not on YouTube yet, please get to YouTube. subscribe to the show. We're going to have all sorts of content, and we do every single week that is exclusive to YouTube. So subscribe to the show on YouTube, leave a comment below, like the video,

and all of those things. You can follow us on social media at Joel Clat Show wherever you like to social media. So let's jump in right away because I want to get to Matt Leinert and talk about this USC Michigan game. So without further ado, let's go to the Heisman Trophy winner himself. Matt Liner, everybody. There he is. Maddie Liner. What's up, everybody? How you doing, buddy?

Hey, man, I'm good. I can't. This is my first time ever on your show. Wow. It's been years. I mean, it's, the show is only a couple of years old.

So yes, I've been two years, and this is the first invite I've ever received. And I am honored, Mr. Clat. I'm honored. Pleasure's all on this side of the table,

my friend. I love you, buddy. Let's go. Listen, I, I thought this would be a perfect week to have you on because, you know, obviously a couple of years ago, like Caleb and USC kind of went crazy, but this one feels different. It doesn't feel like just a great quarterback and an offense with Lincoln and like the newness. What's happening at USC right now feels more sustainable. And in particular in what I think all of us would consider to be like a pretty difficult schedule for them for the remainder of the year.

So the vibe amongst the USC faithful. What are you feeling right now? It's much better than it's been the last couple years. That's for sure. And again, it really points to one thing. I think it points to the defense and how improved they are. It might be the biggest turnaround for one units, one side of the ball in all college football this year. And I know it's only been two weeks, but it's been wild.

So I think when you talk to fans and you talk to alumni, everyone's like, wow, like, we actually have a defense. because we knew we would score. We knew we have an offense. We know I have the players and Lincoln Riley and all that. So now that we have a defense, it's like, holy crap, like we're pretty good. And I think LSU was the big test, right? That was a week one in Vegas. I was there as about 70% LSU fans.

And I wasn't sure we were going to win that game. And when the defense played that way and Miller Moss and those guys, I was like, we might have something. So the vibe is good. I think, but I mean, I know Michigan. this week like like this is a tough one for me man because this is one of those games you go on the road you play a team coming off a by that's everyone's saying how bad they are and it's like they might get punched to the mouth you know it has that type of feel so I think this just this is a really a true test for me I know michigan seems kind of down but this is a true test

for me to see how good we really are okay so like expectations going into the year danton lynn comes in and we like we used to talk about it like what he did at UCLA was really solid. And yet what he's doing with USC seems even better. So has he exceeded what you expected for that defensive side? I mean, he has, but Joel, we were like the worst ranked defense last year in college football. Oh, yeah. So the bar, the bar was set pretty low.

Yes. Okay, but I think everybody was excited about, you know, just his personality, his demeanor. Obviously what he did at UCLA, turning that into one of the better defenses in the country, last year. We got some, some good players, some guys like Anthony Lucas kind of wasn't, didn't do much last year. He's been really good through two weeks. Eric Gentry's all over the field. Like, they got some, they got better. They got better players. And when I was, I was on the sideline for that game and the pregame. And I talked to coach Henderson and I talked to a couple other guys. And they were like, wait till you see this. It is light years ahead of where it was last year. Fundamentals, just basic

stuff and I think it's in the way they're practicing and the way he's teaching. So he has been far better than I think any USC alum or fan could imagine. And now can we sustain it right? Now can we, you know, with the schedule that you mentioned, I mean, still brutal. And that starts this weekend. Yeah. I mean, although this game looks vastly different than it did at the beginning of the year and a game that at the beginning of the year, we all thought to ourselves, oh, that's going to be really tough for USC. Now it's totally flipped. Now it's going to be really tough for Michigan to match up with this team, namely because I do believe that USC is going to be able to score. And a lot of that has to do with the fact that Miller Moss has stepped in and played

phenomenal football, not even just like good. Like what he did against LSU late. Bro, like some of those throws were. The whole shot. Like, come on. Like that's, that's such good quarterback play. And you expect it from Lincoln Riley, but you're like, is Miller Moss going to be that type a guy and it seems like he is he he's all so i've know i know the stories out there i've known miller

since he was probably five uh he used to go to my camps and he always had so you taught him everything he knows is that i did no um he's always had a like he's always had that swag even you know you see like those little like eight year old kids who wear the wristbands and they're like they can play but like okay this kid's got some swag too like miller was always that kid like i'll i'll never forget him I remember him. His parents every year they come, and he was a diehard Trojan. Like he was, he was never going to leave USC no matter what happened because he is like Trojan through and through.

That's why I'm really proud of him for sticking it out. But he's always had game. He was really good in high school here. He was a fairly big time recruit. And he's just kind of waited his turn. And as you said, you turn on the tape and some of those throws against LSU in that environment, and that's top-notch quarterback play. A couple throws even last, you know, last game against Utah State.

I know they beat him pretty handily, but he's making, he's making throws that not just a game manager would make. Like he's putting it into windows that are really tight. He's getting them in the right plays. And, you know, you were there. We were there with Lincoln this summer at a retreat.

And I asked him, you know, like he, Lincoln basically said like, it's going to be easier for him to call games in a sense, because they can get in a rhythm. They can get in a flow because with Caleb, who was sensational,

you just didn't know what you're going to get with sometimes. When he was running around making plays with Miller, you know exactly the checks where he's probably going to go with the football. And you're seeing that so far with the run game, with the past game. And also Joel, too, like the thing like, I'll sound like Zachary Branch. Zachary Branch hasn't really been a factor in the first two games. I mean, Kyron Hudson was the hero in week one, right? Their running back has been outstanding.

Lake McRees are leading receiver through two games, a tight end, Jacoby Lane and all of these guys. And Zachary Branch is probably the best player on the team, yet he hasn't been a factor. So I think it just goes to show the job Miller's done in running this offense at an elite level like a lot of the quarterbacks have done for Lincoln Riley. Okay. Michigan. They're going to start Alex Orgy. I talked about it on my Monday podcast, which unfortunately I had recorded on Sunday before the news. And I said on that show, Matt, I was like, you got to choose somebody and you got to move forward. And it's probably not Davis warrant. That's ending up what the case is now. So Alex Orgy is going to be the starting quarterback for. Michigan as they take on USC. What are your thoughts on Michigan in preparation for this game? I'm nervous.

I'm nervous for USC because you were there last year. What did Michigan run like 30 run plays in a row or what was the number? I think it was 32. 32 run plays in a row. I know this team is different. I get that. They lost the offensive line. But you have a quarterback like Orgy who is just an absolute man child, that

quarterback and his strength is running the football. And you have a USC defense that's been very, has been good. Do they have the depth? Can they play with physicality for four quarters? We'll see. They did against LSU, but we'll see. And then you combine that with those two running backs, Michigan has. If Michigan gets to a lead, a fairly comfortable, I just worry you might see something like that where USC can't get off the field because they're just running the ball down. I don't know. I know this Michigan team is different. The offense line hasn't been what it's been in the past. but look, as you said, they had to go with somebody. Alex Orgy, obviously more dynamic of a player.

Davis-Worn was struggling and throwing the football with turnovers in the first couple games. So we'll see. I mean, we'll see. I think it comes down to that. And also, like, going back to Miller Moss, like against aggressive defense that Michigan plays, you know, not turning the football over, handling that atmosphere. That's going to be huge.

Yeah. Do you have a prediction? What do you think? I think it's going to be low. I don't know the number. I think it's going to be a little lower. scoring. Oh, you do? I do. I do. I think it's going to be 20, 2817, 2821 USC. They cover. He's taken to Trojans. There he is. There he is. Hey, by the way, everybody

listening to this show, go check out Matt's new podcast. It's called Throwbacks with Jerry Ferrar, Turtle from Entourage. You guys know him. You love them. You guys do an awesome job. It's very fun. Give us a quick snippet. It's obviously some sports and a lot of entertainment as well. It's a lot. It's a lot of just two dads talking ball. By the way, we're only, we're episode three. We just started. I'm going to get you on our, on the first season, unlike you, I'm going to get you in maybe one of the first 10 or 15 shows just to show my loyalty for you. And, you know, we'll talk about, we'll talk about what it's like to have a ton of kids, coaching youth sports, all the All the crazy stuff that we go through and then just and then just love in sports, man. It's it's fun. Jerry's great.

Obviously, iconic shows like power and entourage. And we kind of grew up in like the same era in L.A. I was USC quarterback. He was a star on that show. And it's like our lives are like parallel to now. Like we're both in the same boat. So we kind of talk about that. And it's a lot of storytelling.

It's a lot of fun. I love it. Throwbacks. Go check it out wherever you get your podcast. Matt, appreciate you, man. I'll see you on Saturday. Yes, sir. Later, buddy. All right, big thanks to Matt. Matt is awesome. I love him. I'm happy for him. He's doing an awesome job. That throwbacks, by the way, is very cool. So check that out wherever you get your podcast. Okay, let's dive into these tiers now. And I'm going to go conference by conference. And then we're going to get to like seven, eight teams in every single conference. And I'm just going to rank them on the tiers that they are at. Now three weeks, and because we have a much better idea of what these conferences are, who the favorites are, who these teams are. than we did in the preseason.

So why not do it now? And that's what we're going to do. Let's start our top tiers in each power conference. We're going to also do a group of five at the end. Let's start with a big 10, though. So I'm going to do this. These are in order, but I'm going to rank them on tiers and in order. Okay, so it's kind of twofold.

And I'm going to go my best teams down to kind of that 7,8, tier four kind of category. All right. So these are all going to be top half of the conference teams in each one of these conferences and we start in the Big Ten. You guys know who Tier 1 is right now, and that's easy. It's Ohio State. They have not been challenged, but they're clearly at the top of the Big Ten right now. That roster looks insane. They have not faced a red zone snap on defense. They have not given up an offensive touchdown by the opposition. This is a team that's going to be there in the end. And right now they have shown, regardless of opponent, that they can go out there and dominate,

which has not been the case for Oregon, which is why they slide behind USC, Tier 2, is number two USC, which we just talked about there with Matt, and three is Oregon. So those are the two tier two teams. The defense is the big surprise for us on USC, and obviously we just talked about that with Matt. Their ability to tackle in the open field, I think, has been the biggest revelation of the college football season, Miller Moss, as we just talked about, those big time throws that he made against LSU that should translate. Because of that, I moved them ahead of what a lot of people would consider kind of the second best team coming into the season in the Big Ten, which is Oregon. But Oregon, even though they played great against Oregon State, they did not and struggled

against Idaho and Boise State. The O-line tweak helped a ton, which we talked about on Monday. So that tweak right there made them much more dominant on the ground. I thought Dylan Gabriel was always going to be a good fit for them, and he certainly is. Now we get to Tier 3 in the Big Ten. So if I'm ranking 4 to 6 in the Big 10, here's where it lands. I think Penn State is 4, although I'd love to see a little bit more from Penn State. I'm encouraged by Aller. I'm encouraged by the run game. I'm encouraged by some of the explosiveness.

They're there. At 5, I've got Nebraska, and they're on the Tier 3. And this is the up-and-comer right here. And then after that, I've got Michigan. Yeah, Michigan's fallen all the way back from what would be a clear Tier 2 team at the beginning of the season to a clear Tier 3 team right now. And to be honest with you at the back of the Tier 3, because of the way that they've played, the quarterback issues that they have.

Nebraska doesn't have those issues right now. Nebraska, Dylan Rayola has totally solidified Nebraska. Rayola is a revelation as a true freshman in terms of this season and what they are. And we knew that their team around the quarterback was quite good. That was, I think that that was manifested last year. And then you needed a quarterback to take care of the football, namely, and Rayola is doing that and then some being quite a weapon from that position. And then Michigan, they're going to hang on in the tier three.

I think they're sixth in the big 10 right now, but reserve right to change this because they're going to start over right now with a new quarterback, as we just discussed with Matt. Alex Orgy jumps in. I actually think that this is a good way to go for Michigan. Michigan needs to run the football. They need to have a time of possession advantage. They need to have a snap advantage, and they need to get that toughness and that physical identity back in their team, which I think Alex Orgy fits.

Now, is he going to be great throwing the football? Maybe not. But Orgy is the guy that I think can lead them to their ceiling this year in the Big Ten in particular. I'm really interested to see that game this week against USC. I can't wait to watch that film and see what they actually are. Okay, now tier four, and this is where it gets interesting, because there's a lot of teams that I thought about right here. I'm going to go seven, Iowa and eight, Illinois. Both of these, see, like Iowa, I get it. They lost to Iowa State, but I know what I'm getting from Iowa. That was still a close game.

I like Iowa State, which you'll see in the Big 12 rankings, and I know what I'm getting. Illinois, meanwhile, is a team that has surprised a lot of people. They handled Kansas earlier in the year, although that Kansas win doesn't look quite as good after UNLV beat Kansas, but it's still a quality win. Now, Illinois and Nebraska play this week, which that should tell you everything that you need to know about kind of tier

three or three or four. Illinois could go up to tier three or Nebraska could kind of announce themselves potentially as a threat to pass Penn State and get on that tier two. I would just say, I would be remiss if I didn't say, I strongly considered Indiana right here at number eight. just beat UCLA by 29. They're averaging 50 points per game. Curtis Rourke, their quarterback, former Mac play of the year. He's been really good. Indiana and Nebraska could be facing each other, by the way, as six and O's later in the year. So that Indiana, I wanted to throw

out there. And by the way, Rutgers, they've taken care of business. I consider them at that eight spot. Two lower opponents, but 30 point wins in both of those. Ruckers and Indiana, I see you. You didn't make that tier four, but I can you right there in that eighth spot. All right, let's move on. The SEC. The SEC is the one that I think has changed most dramatically from the preseason because what we thought was that in the preseason at least, a lot of us thought that it was just like, okay, Ohio State and Georgia, then Texas and Oregon, and then everybody else. Now, I think it's clearly, clearly. Texas is the favorite in the SEC.

So Tier 1 starts with Texas. They're number one. Number two is Georgia. And that's a change up from what the preseason was. And that's a massive change up. Because at the top, I think with Texas, their depth, their quality of quarterback play, regardless of who's playing quarterback,

is going to pay huge dividends. Their offensive line is incredibly experienced. Their secondary looks to be. fixed. I really like the Makuba kid from Clemson. I think that addition was fantastic. I love what they did in the transfer portal at wide receiver. So to me, like even with the CJ Baxter injury in the run game, I love Texas right now. I'm kind of all in. I put them at number one. The AP has put them at number one, and I think they're the new team to beat in the SEC. Georgia, meanwhile, they play sluggish against Kentucky, and maybe you can explain that away. But now you're starting to see the injury bug.

hit. So Carson Beck has an AC joint sprain in his non-throwing shoulder. I don't think that this is going to be a big deal. I dealt with AC joint sprains in both my throwing and non-throwing shoulder. My throwing shoulder, it was much worse. I had to sit for a couple of weeks. Non-throwing shoulder, I'll be real honest. It's just whether he can deal with pain or not. So we're going to see about the toughness of Carson Beck because it's really not a big deal, at least with the stuff they were given me back then. Maybe they don't give the good stuff to these guys anymore. Tate Rutledge, by the way, he's their guard, probably the best guard in the country. He's out six to eight weeks.

I think that this type of injury bug with their schedule is detrimental because they've got as tough a schedule as anybody in that conference. We just assumed that they would be able to navigate that. But now you look at Georgia's schedule and you think to yourself, there's a loss or two, and here's what's wild. Maybe three pending injuries. I know that sounds wild, but I don't think that that's. totally out of the question. Their defense does remain dominant. They have not given up a touchdown so

far this season. At number three, here's another change up. Now I put them on the tier two, but number three, I think Tennessee is the third best team in the SEC. I get it that they haven't played anybody, but I've got them just one spot ahead of Alabama and that's my tier two. Tennessee and Alabama on tier two in the SEC. Niko is the real deal at quarterback. He's fast. He throws a great deep ball and he's decisive in that offense. And we saw with Hendon Hooker a couple of years ago what that means. When you've got a good decisive deep ball thrower, they are dangerous and they've got skill on the outside. I'm a big fan of what Tennessee is doing right now. They've got Oklahoma this week and Josh Hypo going back to Norman. I don't think there's a lot of love lost there because he lost his job.

Bob Stoops ended up moving from him to Lincoln Riley. I like Tennessee this week. I like Tennessee in general in the SEC, the defense is better than they were a couple of years ago. They can run the football. It's not just a quarterback-oriented, throw it down the field offense. They're more balanced than they were even a couple of years ago. I really, I'm bullish on Tennessee. I'm very bullish on Tennessee. Bama at number four and I just saw them. And you could be thinking, you're like, well, did you not like what you saw? No, I loved what I saw. I think Bama is still excellent in Tier 2. I really do. But there are.

some question marks. Okay. Bama's offense, not a lot of question marks. Explosive, great athletes. I do like their offensive line, specifically once they got that offensive line back into what I would call their intended starting lineup. They get Proctor out there, they get Pritchett out there at the tackles, and I thought they were pretty dominant. They can run the football. They can throw the football, in particular down the field. I do have questions about their defense. Some people are saying like, oh, this defense is going to be great. There are things there on the film. I'm just telling you, if that secondary doesn't get better, they will get hit by big plays when they face a really quality passing game, like Missouri

or Tennessee or even Georgia. So that's what I would worry about Bama. And that's why I've got them one spot behind Tennessee. Let's go to Tier 3 in the SEC. And candidly, I'm going to go at 5 with Old Miss, and then I'm going to go at six with Missou, and Missouri is going to be six. Now, they've, Ole Miss has done nothing but impress. Granted, they haven't played very tough of competition. I believe in Lane Kiffin.

I like Jackson Dart. It's still a wait and see, but they've got a lot of talent, and I think that they've got the quarterback to really make some waves. Missouri, here's the point I would make about Missouri, and I think last week in caps, encapsulation, this actually perfectly. While I love what Bill O'Brien has done at Boston College, a 20, what was it, 27, 21, one score win at home over Boston College. Coming back from a 14-3 deficit, I think Missouri, their record is going to inflate what we think about Missouri. Their record is

going to be better than what their team is. There's a really solid, chance that they go to the SEC championship game. In fact, if I had to lay money right now, is Georgia or Missouri going to go to the SEC championship? I would think long and hard about Missouri because of the injuries that Georgia is starting to deal with, quarterback, guard, you don't want to deal with that, and schedule for Missouri. Missouri's rank all year is going to be inflated. Just they're not the seventh best team in the country. They're not in the top 10, but their record will suggest that they're there. They've got an experienced quarterback. I love Luther Burton, but that's what I feel about Missouri. Then you get to the last tier.

So tier number, what is it? Tier number four, Oklahoma and LSU. I've got Oklahoma and LSU there at seven and eight. Oklahoma has been highly disappointing on offense. LSU should have been beat by South Carolina and have two losses. These are teams that I'm not confident in right now, not moving forward. Oklahoma hasn't even thrown the ball for 200 yards yet, Jackson, Arnold. And with that talent on the outside, that's not going to cut it. I do think their defense has improved over, you know, last year. And then LSU, they get beat by USC in the opener. And they really should have been beat by South Carolina. So, you know, take from that what you will. But those are my seven and eight teams and that survival keeps LSU and that tier four.

So those are the tiers in the SEC. Let's move on to the ACC. All right. So to be fair, in the ACC, I really only wanted to rank two teams. I know that that's, but it's like, I was saying this in the preseason and don't think the ACC is very strong. Okay. Right now, tier one is one team that's Miami. Miami's on tier one. And there's a soft line there, and I decided not to put Clemson also on tier one because of being blown out by Georgia.

So Clemson gets their own tier, they're on tier two. Okay, so let me talk about those two first before I get to kind of the jumbled mess behind those two. Miami has not struggled with anybody. Granted, they haven't played a, terribly difficult schedule, although they did go to Florida and win in the swamp. Florida's probably going to end up being a three or four win team, but when it's all said and done. Cam Ward makes them the only Tier 1 team right now in the league. Now, Cade Clubnick showed something against App State and with Garrett Riley, could they get up to Tier 1? Yes, they could. But for now, we've seen them lay an egg and then play really well. So let's see where it goes from here. If they continue to develop offensively, Clemson,

I'm speaking of, then maybe they're going to get onto that same tier as Miami. But right now, Miami has proven that they are a tier above anybody else in the conference. And a lot of that has to do with Cam Ward. Ward is the best player in the ACCC. They've got, I would consider them to be as good or better than anybody at the line of scrimmage in that conference. So you put those two things together and that's the best team. That's my favorite in the ACC right now and nothing has changed since the preseason.

Clemson is a little bit of a wait and see. that outburst in the first half, I mean, what did they have? Like, 42 at the five-minute mark of the second quarter against App State. So you might be saying to yourself, well, it's App State. Okay, fair enough. But at least they showed it. They did what they needed to do. Then we get to this kind of mess behind all of them, all right?

And I'm going to break this into two different tiers, but to be quite honest with you, it really is just kind of like everybody else. So let me go through this. And I'm going to list all six of these teams that I have on these tiers. and then I'll kind of get to each one. In Tier 3 in the ACC, I'm going to go with number 3, Louisville, number 4, Syracuse,

and number 5, Cal. That's right, Cal. I'll revisit that in the moment. Then you get to Tier 4, and I've got BC in their Boston College, North Carolina, and Pitt. Now, here's what's wild. If I were to tell you before the season,

hey, three weeks in, I'm going to do, basically a power pole of the ACC and my 5, 6, 7, and 8 ranked teams in the ACC is going to be Cal, Boston College, North Carolina,

and Pitt. You'd be like, what? Where's Florida State? Well, Florida State is careening towards a four-win season at best. At best. They could be not even just in the bottom half, but at the bottom of the entire

conference, which is crazy, which is crazy. So now you go to this tier three, and Louisville has shown something. I think Brahm is a really good coach. He did a great job at Purdue. I saw him last year in the bowl game against USC, and I liked what they were doing. Tyler Shuck is playing well for them. So Louisville gets that nod at the third spot in the conference. Then Syracuse gets the next knot in Tier 3. Kyle McCord and Fran Brown have done a remarkable job. And to be fair, I had some people, including my nephew, my nephew, Josh,

Prince who's on our crew, they're like big Syracuse fans. And they've been telling me since the off season, like, hey, watch out for Fran Brown. Watch out for Kyle McCord. And I was like, yeah, yeah, yeah, relax. The thing I love about Syracuse is their schedule. I was a wait and see in terms of the personnel and how they would actually play. But guess what? Kyle McCord has played really well, really well. In fact, if you were making like a 10-person list for the Heisman trophy, Kyle McCord would likely be on it the way that he's played. So Syracuse gets the four spot and then five is Cal. Where did this come from? Think about this, folks. Justin Wilcox goes to Auburn and wins with Cal. There are not two more different programs in the country

than Cal and Auburn. It just like, it doesn't even compute. Cal, the people at Cal Berkeley, couldn't care less if they had football or not. So what Justin Wilcox does to succeed there is exceptional. Meanwhile, Auburn spares no expense. They go and they hire whoever they want to hire. It means everything to them. It means everything to them at Auburn. And Cal went to Auburn and won.

Justin Wilcox is a really good football coach. They're number five. That's a big win, and it gets them in that tier number three. Then you've got Boston College leads that tier four. They had Missouri 14-3. They let them come back. It's a one-possession loss against Missouri on the road, which at least based on the AP is a top 10 team.

I think Missouri's more like a top 15 team, but that gets Boston College into tier four. UNC, I know that they're struggling with the quarterback issue after they lost them in that opener against Minnesota. but Omari and Hampton can run it now. Amarian Hampton is a really good player for the Tar Heels. And then eight is Pitt. Great win in the backyard brawl last weekend.

Eli Holstein, he's played really well for them at quarterback. So Pitt gets the win over West Virginia and they get into that fourth tier of the ACC. But man, the ACC is just wild. I'm ranking teams. Steve and I are ranking teams and we get to five and I say Cal? And we both start laughing and then we immediately say, Yep, that's exactly right. That's exactly right.

All right, the Big 12. Let's get to the Big 12. I just want, before the year, if you remember, the Big 12, our entire takeaway was like, hey, this is going to be the deepest league, at least at the top, maybe in the country. You know, six, seven, eight, nine teams can potentially win the conference. I don't necessarily believe that is the case anymore. And you're going to see that reflected in some of these tiers. Okay. So let's go with tier number one, and there are three teams on this tier number one.

I'm going to start with at number one, Kansas State, number two is going to be Oklahoma State, and number three is going to be Utah. So that's my tier one in the Big 12. Kansas State has a great run game, and Avery Johnson has looked like a superstar at quarterback. So I love what I'm seeing from Kansas State, specifically the beatdown over Arizona last Friday night. That was incredibly impressive. By the way, the debut of Fox Friday Night College football, which was awesome, almost 3 million viewers. That's going to be really good for the Big 12 moving forward. Number two, I've got Oklahoma State. And I know that the run game has been slow so far. Bowman is playing well. I just believe in Mike Gundy. I believe in their experience more so. Remember, they had 18 starters back. And we're going to see all of this play out here in the next couple of weeks because all of these teams kind of play each other.

And then at three, I've got Utah. And the only reason I don't have Utah higher than number three in tier number one is because of Cam Rising's injuries. He's got seven passing touchdowns in six quarters, and they were throttling Baylor. And then he leaves, and then they kind of struggled. So this ranking's all about Cam Rising's finger injury on his throwing hand. I don't love it. I don't love it. If he's healthy, they're probably number one.

He's not healthy. They're number three. Still in tier one, but number three. Then we get to tier number two in the Big 12. And I'm thinking and thinking about this. And you start debating some of these teams. And you think about the preseason, you think to yourself, well, I really liked Arizona, but, like gross.

They just got hammered. And then you start thinking and you're like, oh, okay, this is where it was pretty apparent to me. It's like, I don't think seven or eight teams can win the conference. Tier one seems above the rest. It doesn't mean that these teams can't play themselves into Tier one. but Tier 2, excuse me, is going to start with Iowa State. So Iowa State is going to be my fourth ranked team in the Big 12.

Matt Campbell just continues to find a way. And the other team in Tier 2 is going to be UCF. Gus Malzano is doing a really nice job. They can run it with RJ Harvey. KJ. Jefferson, the old Arkansas quarterback, is a really physical runner. And he's a good quarterback that's played a lot of football. So those are my two teams in Tier 2. And when you see those two teams, you kind of get what I was stating at the beginning,

which was, okay, do we really think those two teams are going to win the conference? Not after what we saw Friday night against for Kansas State. So maybe it's not as deep as eight teams. Maybe it's just three. But that's my tier two. Tier three, this is where you get kind of like, get to, what are we going to get from Colorado? Arizona, I would throw them in there just because they've got great

I would say talent on offense. Fafida and Teteroa McMillan. McMillan's incredible. He's going to be a top 10 pick in the NFL draft. Fafita hasn't played his best. The performance against Kansas State was alarming. They get hammered. And in a lot of ways, resemble Colorado.

Colorado, I believe Shador Sanders and Travis Hunter are elite. And yet it was alarming the way that they played against Nebraska on the road. So both of these teams go on the road against what I would considered to be kind of like tough, physical programs in Nebraska and Kansas State, and they both laid an egg. They both laid an egg. So why is Colorado ahead of Arizona? Well, Colorado has at least shown some signs of life, whereas I don't see those signs from Arizona. In none of their games have I thought to myself, oh yeah, they look impressive outside of their stars. Nothing outside of their stars has really been impressive this year where Colorado has actually, folks, don't look now,

shown signs of life outside of Sanders and Hunter. Their defense has given up, what is it, nine points in the last six quarters. So you go back to halftime in the Nebraska game, and I've got Nebraska fans like hitting me up all the time. They had touchdowns called back due to penalty. Okay, what's your point? I don't understand. Those points don't go on the scoreboard,

so technically the defense didn't give them up. If there's a penalty, it doesn't count. and I thought Colorado's defense played really well against Colorado State. In fact, you know, the points that they scored almost garbage time, almost garbage time. Livingston is their defense coordinator and I like this guy a lot now. And if they can start to play defense and not have to go completely aggressive throwing the football on offense and they can start to play a little bit more complimentary, maybe protect Travis Hunter, maybe protect Shador Sanders, then they could easily play themselves up into Tier 2. They're going to play Baylor this weekend.

If they beat Baylor, then they've got UCF the following weekend. If Colorado wins the next two games, they're going to be a Tier 2 team in the Big 12, and that's probably fourth in the Big 12. And then there's one more team that I would just throw in there, and I would just say, I think TCU is Tier 4. They really had UCF dead to rights. UCF comes back and wins that game. TCU had a kick.

to win that game at the end. They missed it. So if I'm being fair and UCF is a tier two team and I like what they're doing, then TCU at least has to be Tier 4 team and they're the eighth best team in the Big 12 at this point. Next two weeks is going to tell us everything we need to know about really the entirety of the conference. So this week, here's the games. Oklahoma State, Utah, Baylor, Colorado. Then next week we're going to have Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Arizona, Utah, and Colorado UCF. So all those teams that are in these tiers at the top half of the Big 12, They're playing games against each other. And we should know with some level of clarity,

what's going on in the Big 12. Or flip side of that coin, it might just be a giant mess after the next two weeks. All right. Let's go into the group of five now. Not going to go by conference, because really it comes down to who are the best group of five teams and who are the teams that could eventually wind up in the college football playoff.

If I'm looking at the group of five right now, I'm going to go with the best wins and performances so far. So in the group of five, my number one team is Northern Illinois. They go to Notre Dame and get that big win. They're 2-0. Thomas Hammock, their coach has a good pedigree, obviously talking with Melvin Gordon last week and Derek Watt about what he meant to them at Wisconsin

when he was their running back coach. he's a good football coach, and that's a huge win for them on the road. And then Notre Dame turned around and hammered Purdue. So Notre Dame wins on the road against A&M, hammers Purdue, and then loses to Northern Illinois. Now, we can chalk it up to they didn't play very well, which sure, there's some of that. Maybe we should also just suggest that Northern Illinois is really good,

which puts them at number one in my power rankings of the group of five. At number two, I've got Boise State. Now, they almost got a win equal to what Northern Illinois got or maybe even better when they almost beat Oregon on the road. I think Boise State has the best player in the group of five and Ashgen, Gentie, the running back. It's just going to be a much harder road for Boise State because the Mountain West is going to be much tougher than what Northern Illinois has to navigate in their conference. So Boise State is number two. At three, I like Memphis. So they did take care of Florida

State, but playing the way that Boise State played against Oregon, I thought was more impressive than beating what is now a really bad Florida State team. Although I like Memphis, that is a good win on the road. And so now they're in the mix. At number three, at number four, I've got UNLV. UNLV is a team that I think we need to start paying attention to. They've got two road wins, both of them in the Big 12 against Houston and Kansas. And now they've got an opportunity with their schedule in the Mountain West to go out there and make some noise. And then another Mountain West team is number five, and that's Fresno State. They just beat New Mexico State 48, nothing, which might not seem like much,

but New Mexico just played Liberty close six-point game. UNLV and Liberty are comparable in the group of five. And that's why Fresno gets that nod over Liberty right there. I think that if I'm looking at this and seeing the schedules and knowing what I feel like I know about the committee at the end of the year. And I know people don't love me talking about the playoff, but because of the strength now in the Mountain West with Boise, UNLV, Fresno State, the winner of the Mountain West likely going to be your representative

in the 12-team college football playoff. Even though I've got Northern Illinois number one, they don't have the resume builders looking forward onto their schedule that a Boise State, a UNLV or Fresno State does, because their conference just isn't as strong. as what the Mountain West is. So that's something that I would be paying attention to out there if you're a group of five fan

or you're paying attention to who might get that 12 spot in the college football playoff. So there's my group of five teams ranked one to five. I've got a comment on what's going on in Florida. Florida and Florida State struggling the way they are is mind bending to me. Because they don't have to do anything to recruit, they can basically open up their back door and get a top 12, 11, 10

recruiting class. It's like Texas. It's a better recruiting base than anybody but Texas, and maybe Texas A&M. So I don't understand this. I don't understand. I don't understand. how Florida and Florida State can be a combined 0 and 5 against FBS teams this season. How did this happen? How did this happen? How did we get to this spot with each of these two programs? I'm going to take them one at a time. Let's start with Florida State. I think that when you look at last year, and it was a remarkable season, and yes, I think they got screwed not going to the playoff, being an undefeated. But if you really take a look, you'll see that that team was largely built on the transfer portal.

A lot of their main contributors were from the transfer portal. Not every single one, but a lot of them. A lot of their main guys were the transfer portal, and they're all gone. And so they needed the transfer portal again to hit to the level it did a year ago, and namely the quarterback. And when it didn't, man, it didn't.

I know they spent a lot of money on this, but they missed it. They missed it. They missed the transfer portal. And when you miss, it ain't good. Your floor goes way down. Because there's nothing to fall back on. I hate to say this, but when you try to build your entire program off of the transfer portal, which they've largely done, again, not completely, but largely done, when it doesn't work, there's nothing to fall back on. like what's the foundation there? I think that's the risk. It's just a miss. And now Mike Norvell, who's not going anywhere,

he's got a $65 million buyout because of the contract that he got off the back of the 13-0 season. So now he's going to be charged with fixing it. I think that he's learning a valuable lesson, and it might take them a couple of years, but I do think that they're going to pull out of this. And the reason is because you look around

and you start to realize like, okay, I can't go all in on the transfer portal like I did and put all my chips in that basket. I've got to also build through recruiting because it's got to be supplemental. I think teams like what Michigan did a year ago or what Texas is doing this season is more sustainable, where the real foundation of the team is already there. They are Texas guys. And then you supplement in areas of need some guys that can really contribute. And when you've got that style of model, it's more sustainable. and that's when you can use the portal, you know, to its fullest.

So last year's portal usage, unsustainable for Florida State. Mike Norville needs to turn the page and kind of move forward, also recruiting high school talent. Now we get to Florida. Florida is a little bit more alarming. And the reason is, and by the way, I've heard, I've heard people be like, well, no, no, no, Florida is the better situation because they can just, you know, get out from Billy Napier and they'll be fine. Yeah, said that about the last few coaches. So, okay, their buyout might be lower than the $65 million that Florida State would owe Mike Norvell. But it's not low.

It's lower, not low. We're talking mid-20s in terms of millions of dollars. We've got programs that are worried about the $22 million revenue share that they're going to give their players in upcoming years. You think that we can just write checks for $25 million? That's incredibly difficult to do. That taps into resources that should be used for things like player support in IL. So now all of a sudden you are taking resources and moving them to a place where they are totally wasted.

It's dead resources. You pay a coach 20 plus million dollars to not coach. Those are dead resources. So that's reason number one. Reason number two, if you really go back and study the University of Florida, you will see that they were not very successful at all outside of the Steve Spurrier era and the Urban Meyer era. Everywhere else, that's a pretty average program.

Pretty average program. Dan Mullen won 11 games once. You know, they've got like, I think, three 10 plus win seasons in their history outside of Spurrier and Urban Meyer. Maybe you're saying like, well, that's every single program. No, not all the way. Just go look at Ohio State. Every coach that has coached at Ohio State wins and they win at a high level. Every coach that has coached at LSU wins and wins at a high level. In a lot of regard, you know, Bama could be the same way.

You've got titles with bear, stalling, Sabin. multiple guys. Whereas at Florida, yes, you've got two guys that have won titles, but outside of that, man, it's pretty bare. And now, ever since Urban Meyer left, all they're doing is recycling coaches and not even recycling. They're just like turning over coaches. It's a revolving door right now. So they haven't been able to build anything. And this is where it gets bad for both of these programs, is that during this era, since Urban Meyer left Florida, guess what's happened? Nick Sabin has decimated. that region in recruiting.

Did you know that since Florida won their last SEC championship game, Alabama has won nine. Nine. Now you're going to have to contend with Sark. DeBoer looks like he's recruiting. Oh, hey, by the way, guy who's won two Natty's,

Kirby Smart, ain't going anywhere. You've got Dabo still who's going to be hitting it as hard as he possibly can. And oh, by the way, one of the great recruiters in college football, we'll see about his game day coaching ability. Mario Cristobal is in your state. So Florida and Florida State are in a very precarious spot

because even though there's an abundance of resources, everybody is coming in and stealing those resources. So how do you build this thing back? Question remains. Question remains. I will say this. If you're looking at the state of Florida right now, and the state of Florida, football in Florida,

this is Miami's opportunity. When your rivals are down, you've got to take advantage. And they're down. Florida and Florida State are down. And when I say down, I mean down. So guess what, Miami? This is your shot. I think that you're one of the best teams in the country. I put them in the top five in the country. I think Cam Ward could be in New York for the Heisman Trophy. I think they could win the SEC and get a top four, or excuse me, ACC and get a top four seed in the college football playoffs. You win one playoff game at Miami and the U is all the sudden back. And guess what? All of those in Florida are going to want to go down to South Florida and play at Miami because they've got

more tradition. Maybe not than Florida State, but certainly than Florida. So like this is Miami's opportunity right now. If you're Mario Cristobal, man, this is like strike when the iron is hot. And that's the risk for both Florida and Florida State. These are not easy fixes. I think it's probably an easier fix at Florida State. But for Florida, I don't know, man. I don't know. Urban Meyer ain't walking through that door. Trust me. It's a good life. out there for him right now. He's playing golf. He's working with us. He ain't walking through that door. And I don't know who is. I don't know who is that's going to all of a sudden save you. Lane Kiffin's got a top five team in the country at Ole Miss.

Ole Miss has done nothing but give him resources. Why would he want to go to Florida? Maybe he will. I'm not sure. Maybe he will. That'll do it for today's show. I really loved today's show because we got to talk about so many different teams. Listen, If you're a fan of this show, please subscribe, like the video, leave a comment below. And also, if you know that I talked about a team, mentioned a team that you've got a friend that's a fan of, send the show to them.

Because I want everyone to get on on this episode in terms of all these teams that we've been talking about here at basically the quarter pole, almost the quarter pole in college football season. Okay, tomorrow we've got previews and picks. We've got picks. That's right. I believe I was 500.

week ago. So we're still hovering at that 60% range on the season. Hey, I'll take it. I'll take it. We're giving picks against the spread tomorrow and tomorrow's preview episode. And then we are in Columbus, Ohio, Big Noon kickoff, as well as Big Noon Saturday on Saturday as Ohio State takes on Marshall. So that'll do it for today. We'll talk to you tomorrow, everybody.