The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Michigan upsets Ohio State: how did it happen? Who’s in the Playoff now and Who’s on the Bubble?

Episode Date: December 2, 2024

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt breaks down the huge upset in Columbus as Michigan beat Ohio State for the 4th-straight year. He gives his reasons why the Wolverines continue to have the Buckeyes’ number and why Ohio State’s Offense was so conservative, resulting in just 10 points. Klatt discusses the lasting impact that this game will have on the programs going forward. He also gives his thoughts on the postgame fight on the field and how the emotions of college football rivalries are one of the best parts of the sport but can also, at times, go over the line. Klatt hits on the results around the country like Texas going to Kyle Field and winning at A&M before listing which teams are already in the College Football Playoff and who is on the bubble trying to sneak into the field.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I understand the emotions of both sides of what happened on Saturday in the horseshoe. I cannot lay blame on either side. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Hey, welcome into the program.

This is a Joel Clatt. This show is brought to you by Hampton by Hilton. Thank you for being here, by the way. By the way, if you are listening to this podcast, wherever you're doing that, rate and review us. If you would, subscribe on YouTube, hit that notification button, leave a comment below. And then you can follow us on social media wherever you like to social media at Joel Clatt Show. A lot going on.

Folks, rivalry weekend showed out. Didn't it? Didn't it? There is so much to get into and there's not going to be enough time. So some of these games I'm going to have to comment more specifically on Tuesday. reaction show, which you'll hear on Wednesday morning, because there's the, the Michigan, Ohio State game is going to take up a lot of time. And rightly so, because that was the giant one from this weekend as Michigan upset the Buckeyes, 13 to 10, three touchdown underdogs, without Colston Loveland, without Will Johnson. So we're going to sit and do a lot of analysis on this game.

That was an incredible game. There's no doubt. But I'm also going to want to talk about where we're standing right now. in the college football playoff. And then all of these fights and all the emotion that we saw around college football, certainly want to touch on that during the course of the program. But let's start in with that incredible game. Michigan taking down Ohio State.

And again, the number two Buckeyes losing to the Michigan Wolverines, but this time in just I would say even more dramatic fashion because of the three touchdown spread. Three touchdown underdogs. I did not see this coming, to be quite honest. I don't think a lot of people saw this coming, except for maybe some of those players and coaches within the Michigan program. And we'll get to that in just a little bit. I think that if we were really being honest with ourselves,

I think that the main question about the game on Saturday would just be like, how did Michigan do this? How did they pull this off? This Wolverine team that has struggled for the better part of the year, all these new faces around their coaching staff, so many new faces on their team and in particular in the lineup and more specifically on offense, how did they pull this off? Well, I think that the easiest way to say this is that once again, the game was played on Michigan's terms rather than on Ohio State's terms. You see,

when I first started to do this rivalry and broadcast this rivalry back in 2017, 18, 19, This game was always played on Ohio State's terms. Ohio State had the talent, and it was played on the perimeter. And Michigan could not catch up. And they would desperately try to win the matchup against Ohio State, and they couldn't because the game was played on Ohio State's terms. And now you go into 2021 and since, and all four of these matchups the last four years,

have been played on Michigan's terms. they want to get into a phone booth and get into a fist fight. And that's exactly what has happened over these last four years. And the reason that this one is so shocking is because it was so clearly out of character and in terms of a mismatch for the Ohio State Buckeyes. You see, there was two position groups in this game that I felt like held a pretty significant advantage over their counterpart in the game. And that was the Michigan defensive line over the Ohio State offensive line.

Now, a lot of factors of that, one being Michigan's defensive line is just excellent. And I mean excellent. They are, I think, the best defensive line in the country. When you have the combination of the edge rushers that they have, as well as the defensive tackles, and their matchup against a beat-up and patchwork offensive line for the Buckeyes, that was a huge advantage for Michigan. So they wanted the game to be played in the trenches. They wanted those front four to have their say in the outcome of the game, which is exactly what happened.

Now, the mismatch for Ohio State was clearly on the perimeter. Their group of wide receivers I still maintain is the best group of wide receivers in college football. Jeremiah Smith, Emeka, Abuca, and Carnell Tate. Those are just their top three. They've got talented guys even behind that. They've got the two great running backs, Travion Henderson and Quincyon Judkins, that on the perimeter can make plays. The defensive backfield, the secondary for Michigan, totally banged up.

So they were a patchwork. Just like the Ohio State Offensive Line was a patchwork without Seth McLaughlin and Josh Simmons, two starters that got injured earlier this year. Well, in the secondary for Michigan, no Will Howard means that Zeke Berry's got to move out to corner. They've got some new pieces out there. You had Rod Moore, Terry's ACL. It wasn't what it has been, and the advantage was clearly with Ohio State. Okay, so what ends up happening?

Well, the game was played on the inside rather than on the perimeter. And that's a huge mistake from Ohio State's part. A huge mistake. I think back to even the game, like the game I did Texas going to Michigan earlier in the year. And even Oregon, when I watched that game on film, didn't broadcast that game, but watch that game on film, Oregon and Texas, who I think are elite teams, two of the best teams in the country, they went and played Michigan. And granted, it wasn't the same version of Michigan. And I'll get into that in a little bit. but they played a perimeter game early in particular.

And what that did is that softened Michigan up a little bit. They played some tempo on offense, and they got that starting defensive line a bit tired for Michigan. And then that's when they were able to start exploiting some of the runs later in the game. That's exactly the opposite of how the game played out against Ohio State. Okay. So in my estimation, it's about terms and whose terms the game is played on. And for the fourth straight year, Michigan got to play a game that they were completely comfortable with. And actually, in this case, desperately desired to play.

And I think that the question then becomes like, why? Why was this the case? Why did Ohio State allow this game to be played? this way. That's the biggest question I would have, like, let's say, if I'm an Ohio State fan, I would ask, like, why? And even if I'm a Michigan fan right now, I would think to myself, like, well, why did they allow us to do that? Because that's so fascinating. You get into the second half of that game. And again, Ohio State doesn't do anything on offense in the second half. No points for that offense in the second half. Well, two reasons why I think you can answer,

like why did that take place? Why did Ohio State? Why did Ryan Day and Chip Kelly allow this game to be played on the terms that it did, and specifically in the second half? And I think it comes down, I think it comes down to two things. The first being, I think that they had a tremendous amount of faith in their own defense. Because Ohio State's defense is really good, really good. and it was very clear that Michigan was not going to drive the length of the field in order to score points. Think about the points that they got. The only reason that they had 10 points is because they got the ball first and goal inside the five after a Will Howard interception. And then after a short punt, when the offense didn't do anything, they gain, what is it, five yards, six yards and kick a 50 plus yard field goal.

Zvada kicks a 50 plus yard field goal. That's the only reason they have 10 points. Ohio State has given them nothing, right? So the first reason of why this game gets played in the trenches when Ohio State has the ball is because of the faith they had in their defense. I believe that they thought to themselves, there's no way they're going to score any more points. And so they started to protect themselves with some of the offensive play calls.

The other factor of why, I said there was two. The first was faith in their D. And the second one is it was pretty clear, based on the film that I watched after the game, that Will Howard was struggling, and he was not seeing the game very well. And it didn't have to do solely with the injury or when he got banged up. The first interception, which you see right now on YouTube, that was the complete opposite side of the field, I should say, that he was supposed to be on. That is two high safeties and a corner that is in a jam technique and doesn't technically

have deep responsibility, although he can float back. that's not necessarily quarters, but it's kind of a soft two, and the corner has his eyes down. And he throws a pick that gives Michigan the ball inside the five. The second interception was equally as bad. And this one, just in terms of ball placement, throwing it well behind a mecca, Abuca, to the tune of three, four yards behind him. And more on that one a little bit later. But even more so than the two picks, it was the first one where he goes to the opposite side.

And then in general, even when he wasn't throwing interceptions, The ball was not going to the right spot on film. And granted, I'm not in their position rooms. So I'm not going to sit here and act like I'm PFF and going to grade him on a snap in and snap out basis. I'm not going to do that. But I do generally understand, like, what are zone beaters, what are open coverage beaters, and what are closed coverage beaters? And what I mean by that is like, if there are two safeties in high, that's an open- middle of the field. If there is one safety in the middle of the field, that's a closed middle of the field.

So is it middle field open, middle field closed? I know where your eyes are supposed to go based on middle field open, middle field closed. And there were several times when Will Howard was playing the wrong side of the field. And again, sometimes even completing the past, but it's like that's not where the ball is supposed to go. Well, Ryan and Chip surely saw what I was seeing. And I had to wait to see it on film, but they were seeing it in real time. Because as coaches, you call a concept and you see a coverage and you know what the coaching points are and you think to yourself like, this is probably where the ball is going to go. And when it's not going there, it's a good indication that the quarterback is just not seeing

it well. And I don't think Will was seeing it very well for the really entirety of the game. So there's this idea that I feel like those coaches, I feel like Ryan Day and Chip Kelly, wanted to protect from their offense, which they didn't feel like was in rhythm. they saw that their defense was playing really well, and so they allowed the game to get taken down into a phone booth in the second half with their offense. Now, in hindsight, would they like to change that? I'm sure.

But that's the only reasons why I can possibly come up with why this happened. Why in the world would some of those things happen? And so now all of a sudden it's in the second half and it's 10 to 10. You've got a 10-10 ball game. you've got this idea that like our quarterback is not seeing it very well. Our defense is playing outstanding. And here's, I rarely do this, but I want to talk about one sequence in the third quarter because I think that this sequence ends up being the football game right here.

I'm going to go to basically like, what is it, eight, I think it's like 840, no, 824 of the third quarter. And after a short punt, Ohio State comes onto the field with 824 in the third quarter and a 10-10 game, and they get the ball on their side of the 50-yard line. So they've got P and 10, I call it, the first down. So it's first and 10 at the 47-yard line. And they drive right down inside of the red zone. And even some run plays, some creative run plays,

and they get a little bit of rhythm going. And now it's first and 10 at the 19. And they gain some yards on first down, and then they run it again. And you can tell, like, they're kind of protecting. And now it's third and five. What is it? Third and five, third and six. and that's when the second interception happens.

And it was a really bad interception. You saw it earlier when we rolled the clip if you're watching on YouTube. Ameca Abuka is its zone coverage, right? But Ameca Abuka makes a little bit of a break and he just breaks into the soft spot of the zone and Howard throws it three yards behind him. And it gets picked off by McCarrey Page. Great play by Macari Page, by the way. But the ball was egregiously behind a meca abuka.

So they come off of the field and then Michigan returns the favor. And then that's the sequence that everybody is going to start talking about because Davis Warren goes out there and he throws, I believe this was on a third down and it was. And Caleb Downs picks it off. And now all of a sudden Ohio State is right back onto the field and you can feel the energy in the building. And what do they do? They run the football. And I'm thinking to myself, well, that was interesting because it was just nondescript run.

Then they did a little sprint right. throwback to the tight end. And again, it's zone defense that they're playing against because Michigan's not having to play man and blitz and do any of that because they're controlling the game with the front four. And then they have a delayed handoff, a little draw play to the tailback. And of course, Mason Graham snuffs that out because they couldn't block those defensive tackles all day long.

And so then all of a sudden you're like, okay, well, we're going to get our points and win the game and fielding misses the kick. Building misses the kick. And that's the moment that the game totally changed. changes because the energy in the building and the energy on the far sideline from where I'm standing completely changes at that point. You see, here's what had happened, folks, is that Michigan was allowed to dominate the game with totally safe coverages because their defensive line was playing unbelievable. You have to give so much credit to Mason Graham and

Kenneth Grant, Josiah Stewart, and T.J. Guy and Derek Moore and all of these guys that played up front because they were completely controlling the game. Michigan had to, or I should say didn't have to commit any resources to stopping the run whatsoever because their front four and the backers, Hausman and Barham, they were stifling everything. They were physical. They were getting off of blocks. They were providing enough pressure, by the way, when Ohio State needed to throw the football, that they didn't have to manipulate the coverage in order to send any resources even to get pressure on the quarterback. So that way, Michigan got to just sit in safe zone cover just the entire game.

They had two guys over Jeremiah Smith. They had, you know, it was four over three on one side. It was three over two on the other side. And there was not a lot of places to go with the football. So even though all of us were thinking to ourselves like, why isn't the ball going on the perimeter? It's because the numbers suggested that they needed to run the football. But here's the problem.

They could not. They could not. The mismatch up front was so thoroughly won by Michigan that it completely stifled Ohio State's offense. Those defensive tackles, I've said it all year long. They are the two best defensive tackles in the country. That's the best defensive line in the country. And Ohio State's offensive line could not do anything against them.

There was a couple of little wrinkles like early in the game. They ran a little bit of an option play with Will Howard and Quinchon Judkins. And then on another one, they kind of trapped. And it was like a really unique style inside. I call it an influence trap. And they gained some yards in the third court. But like it was these special unique little plays that they did in the run game that gained any yards. If they were just trying to run basic like run plays against good numbers, by the way,

meaning like you can block everybody in the run front. They couldn't do it. They couldn't do it. So that's why like that defense was incredible. And here's where I'll credit Wink Martindale. Early in the season, I saw a lot of exotic coverages and exotic blitzes on third down. He got more basic, which allowed his players to play. And the defense late in the year resembled more of what Jesse Mentor was doing with this defense,

what Mike McDonald was doing with this defense over the last couple of years. And I just, I got to give Wink Martindale a ton of credit, a ton of credit, because he had to learn the college game quickly. And what he was doing early, he was not stubborn enough to do late in the season. Now, maybe injuries have to, you know, are played into that. And I'm sure that they are with Will Johnson. But the game plan that he had against Ohio State was really brilliant. Let the guys eat up front and then stay safe in the back end.

They did not allow Ohio State to get past them deep, even when they tried a deep pass to Jeremiah Smith. like the interference wasn't the worst thing in the world. I'll be honest. It's like that's not a terrible strategy and a very NFL strategy, by the way. And interference is a lot better than a touchdown catch. And they use that, you know, a couple of times. I'm not saying that that was the absolute plan, but that's what the result of those attempts down the field are.

So the defense is playing great. And now you get this third quarter stop. And then you get the missed field goal. And I just want to suggest, you know, like after that, kick, there's about 20 minutes left in the game right around there. And, or I'm sorry, after the interception, after Will Howard's second interception, there's about 20 minutes of game time left. Ohio State ran 10 offensive plays from that point forward.

10. And that's where we get into this idea of like, Michigan, knew when fielding missed the kick that they were going to win the game. And I, God is my witness, they told us this during the week. This is what's so crazy is that on Wednesday we do our calls with the Michigan coaches. And this is what they said. They said, all we hope for is a one-score game in the fourth quarter because then we feel like we've got them and we're going to win that game.

And I was like, okay, well, that's interesting. They didn't say that they knew they could win or that they knew that they could have a one-score game in the fourth quarter, they said, if, if we can travel a really narrow path towards a one-score game in the fourth quarter will win that game. And they were very confident about that, very confident about that. And now I know why. Now I know why. Because in the last three years, it's been very evident to them that they would be able to win

physically in the fourth quarter. And they've done that for now four straight years. Four straight years. You saw it in the way that they played. You saw it in the way that their offensive line just continued to grind away at the Ohio State defense. And it wasn't pretty. But guess what?

They finally were able to start running the football a little bit in the fourth quarter. And Kelle Mullings was an absolute beast. He's going to go down in lore, you know, in this matchup specifically on the Michigan side for what he did on Saturday. You know, that third and six that you're watching on YouTube, by the way, be a subscriber, hit the notifications, that third and six that he bounces out to the right side and picks up the first down and gets them in field goal range, that's the game at that point. 32 carries 116 yards in a touchdown and the win over Ohio State.

And it's like that offense is not a very good offense. All due respect to those players because they played their guts out. But man, Kelle Mullings with Donovan Edwards, went out with injury. It was very clear. It was either him or a true freshman. And yeah, the true freshman got to carry late, but Kalele was a beast, an absolute beast. And not in the terms of just churning out yards, but physically just giving body blow after body blow after body blow. And they knew that at some point that would pay dividends, that that would pay dividends. And you look up and it's the fourth quarter and then sure enough, they did exactly what they were able to do the last three years.

So check this out. Check this out. They've won four straight games against Ohio State. And I started thinking to myself like, man, you know, it seems like it's the same type of ending every year for the four straight years. And I was like, what are the rushing yards in the fourth quarter combined over the last four years? These four wins. Michigan has run the ball for 394 yards. combined over the last four fourth quarters for, on average, six point seven yards per carry.

So now I think back to the conversations that I've had and the coach is saying to me like, if we're in a one score of game in the fourth quarter, we're going to win that game. And I'm like, well, what do you mean you're going to win that game? Says who? Says history. Says history. They leaned on that. They knew it deep down in their heart.

They knew that they could. do that, that that style would end up winning. And Ohio State played into their hands. They allowed the game to be played on the inside rather than the perimeter. That's the only way that it was going to be a one score game. And then there we go. And all of a sudden, they're walking out of there with a victory as a three touchdown underdog and you're like, how did that happen? That's how it happened. That's how it happened. It had to happen that way, by the way. It was an incredibly narrow path. You know, I know that there's a lot of, there's going to be on the Ohio State side in particular, there's going to be a lot talked

about in terms of coaching decisions and Ryan Day and Chip Kelly and Will Howard. And I understand that. And I get that. But the way that I just outlined, that's exactly what happened in that game. That's exactly how it happened. And now, you know, Ryan Day, unfortunately for him, falls to one and four against Michigan. This guy is an incredible coach. He's 65 and 6 against everybody else. 65 and 6. And in this matchup, in particular,

for whatever reason, I think that his demise in this matchup has been that it has been played on Michigan's terms. And in this one in particular, it felt like they made the decision to allow that to happen. And I kept thinking to myself, like, when is the tempo going to come? When is the perimeter game going to come?

And it just never really materialized. And again, I think it comes down to two reasons. One is, I don't know if they were trusting their quarterback a lot, the way that he was playing, the turnovers that he was throwing in there. And then I think that they trusted their own defense a ton. So that's how you get to that position. If you're asking yourself as a Buckeye fan, like, why in the world would they play that style of game? That's the reasons.

Now, do I agree with it? No, I don't. Their most successful offensive possession was the two-minute possession right before the half. They were forced into, because of game situation, going faster, and running a lot different combination of routes than what they were trying to run the rest of the game. the rest of the game because of the zone coverage, they were trying to run a lot of these hooks and they weren't running through the zones very much. See, in the two-minute situation,

a lot of times they were clearing zones out with vertical routes and then folding overs and other types of routes in after they would clear out some of those zones. That was working very effectively. And even like clearing out through the slot and then bringing in a slant. And what you didn't have, and really any other time during the game, is that speed, what you had was a ton of curls and hooks and little under-routes.

You didn't have slants and posts and go-routes. And it wasn't very aggressive. And I think that the hindsight for them is going to be like, we allowed that game to be a slow game. We allowed that game to be a limited possession game. We allowed that game to be played on their term. and I think that's what they will be most frustrated about. Michigan wanted the one-score game.

In the fourth quarter, they got it. They believed they could win it, and they did. And I believe they understood that the narrow path had to be taken. You see, they had to play a limited possession game. If this was a high-volume game, they lose that game. If it's played on the perimeter, they lose that game. I mean, they knew that. They played Texas.

They played Oregon. Ohio State ran 10 plays over the final 20 minutes of that. game after the Howard I&T. That's crazy. Field position. They had to get that. They got 10 points starting possessions inside of Ohio State territory. One of those was inside the five. The other was gaining five yards and kicking a 50 plus yard field goal. And then they had to play on their terms. And they did. All of those things had to take place. Had to in order for Michigan to win. And it did. And it did. And I got to tell you, like, if I'm Sharon Moore, no wonder he was so happy after the game because he got to play a slug fest, which he didn't have to talk about.

And this is not like who's tougher than who. It's just that Michigan knows that they can win that style. This is Sharon Moore after the game in the press conference. That's who we are. So we don't really need to talk about it. You know, we're built. That's how we're built. We don't talk about toughness.

We don't talk about that. You know, how we're built in the weight room, what we do on the field, physicality, how we practice. That's just who we, you know, who Michigan is. So we don't really need to talk about it. I'll give Sharon a lot of credit because this team found themselves late in the year. It was not a pretty season for Michigan. Michigan fans, you know that.

I mean, you know that. They had to do a ton of soul searching. They changed schematically a little bit. It hasn't been great. And yet, over their last three games, even the loss to Indiana, I think that you saw a much better version of Michigan. By the way, that Indiana went over Michigan looks a lot better now. Since that close loss to Indiana, they blew out Northwestern.

They went on the road and beat the number two ranked team in the country. This team figured it out late in the season. And now I think that they're going to be really excited moving forward. And that's where I'm going to go next is like, what does this mean for each program, for each coach, for the future? What does Saturday mean for Michigan and Ohio State? And for Michigan, I got to tell you, there's not a seven-win team in the country that had a better last two weeks than Michigan. They get Bryce Underwood to flip. They've got a top-10 recruiting class.

Now they just beat their rival for the fourth straight time. And here's the more important part is that they can go into the offseason and they can double down on everything that they do. You see, this was a really important win, obviously, for Sharon, for so many reasons. But the main reason is that he can say, like, no, no, no, no. It's not just Jim that can win this way. This is Michigan's philosophy, not Jim's philosophy, which then means that it can be my philosophy. We can go in, and this can be my program, and that these foundational things about toughness and weight room and development work.

This works. What we do works. That is a really powerful thing going into an offseason because you've got to be able to lean on guys. You see, as a coach, you've got to have leverage over guys. If you feel like your players have leverage over you, then you can't require them to work as hard as they need to work in order to develop. But when you have leverage over the players, when you can say like, what I'm requiring

you to do works, we've beat Ohio State. four straight times. We've won a national championship. We won three big 10 titles. This works. Now, the offseason could be incredible. And he can point to that post game interview with Mason Graham at his side and Jenny Taft on the field. That's basically what he said. Check it out. What are you going to do to beat Ohio State and you did it today? How did you do it? These guys, man. Guys like Mason Graham, guys like Kenneth Grant, besides two and Derek Moore, the offensive line. I mean, you talk about a gritty performance by a bunch of guys. I mean, I love these dudes.

These guys are the harder program. This is why you come to Michigan. Right here, guys like this. Win this game. Three and no. Let's go, baby. Love you. That's come to Michigan.

This works. I mean, that's what he's saying. And like, how about that recruiting pitch? If you're sitting in the living room of a defensive lineman, if you're sitting in the living room of an offensive lineman or running back, You're like, hey, like, this is what we do. This is what we do. And it works.

So really powerful game for Michigan. And I think that's what it means for them moving forward. It is a springboard game. They can go into the offseason and now it can be an incredibly powerful and positive offseason, even if it wasn't as successful on the field as they had wished during the fall. And I think that that's fair. Now for Ohio State. What does this mean for Ohio State?

My gosh. I mean, this is what's just such a difficult conversation because there's a sector of people out there, Ohio State people, that want, like, well, this means that, like, we've got to change. I'm not one of those. I'm really not. And it doesn't seem like your athletic director is either. Here's the weird part for Ohio State is, like, this is going to hurt a lot. And however, they are still in this thing. And there is not a great team in America.

All due respect to Oregon, Ohio State already saw Oregon. Ohio State already played with Oregon in Oregon and lost by a point. And that's the unequivocal, almost unanimous, number one team in the country. So Ohio State still has a very great. clear an open path to win the national championship. And there are times when you've got to get up and brush yourself off and push forward. I know it was an emotional loss. I fully understand that.

I really do. I have been there as a player. I grew up in Colorado. I have lost to Nebraska on my senior day. I know how it feels. It's awful. It's awful. I don't want to put myself in the coach's shoes because I didn't have a family at the time.

So I'm not trying to do that. I am trying to say like there are times as a player and as a competitor when you go through things that you don't feel like you can get up off the mat, but you have to get up off the mat. Because everything is still ahead of this Ohio State team. There's not a dominant team out there. And guess what? If you can learn from this game and fix some of the issues that you had in this game,

and if you can not repeat them, then they could win the national championship. You see, after they lost to Oregon, I thought that they did a really good job. Ryan in particular, and the defense in particular under Jim Knowles, of transforming themselves and evolving on defense to become a better team. And they were better defensively in the back half of the year than they were in the first half of the year. And specifically, then they were against that Oregon team. Okay, so that's pretty clear. Well, now you've got to do the same thing, even though it hurts bad because it's a punch right in the gut because it's Michigan, but you've got to do the same thing on the offensive side.

And what is the thing that you've got to learn? You cannot get dragged into a street fight with that offense. You can't because the offensive line is not good enough to do that. It's not good enough to do that. Ohio State has got to play on the perimeter. This cannot be a running team. It cannot be a running team in order to win the national championship. It has to be a passing team, which means they're going to have to trust Will Howard.

And Will Howard's going to have to play better. Kind of a bottom line proposition. And I think that Ryan Day is going to know that after watching this film. I think that Chip Kelly is going to know that. And I think Will Howard is going to know that. There are games when Will plays really well. Saturday was not one of them. But if this team is going to reach their potential, it will be because of the passing game.

It will not be because of the running game. All right. And if they tried to prove that it is because of the running game, then they'll end up like this again. Because there's been two games that I've actually done and sat in the booth. And it felt like Ohio State was trying to be stubborn. And it was Nebraska and this game against Michigan. And in both of those cases, those two teams on their defensive side, their two best players were their defensive of tackles. Nebraska and Michigan. And you look up and it's like, you can't be stubborn and just

try to run the football. If running the football is not there, they've got to pivot. And they've got to find a better way to get Jeremiah Smith involved. They've got to find a better way to get a Mecca Abuka involved. And they've got to find a better way to get the ball on the perimeter and attack where they have the mismatch. Ohio State is a great team if they play on their terms. This is not a team that's going to be able to devolve into some street fight and win at the top end. And we just saw that against Michigan. We just saw that against Michigan. So where do they go?

We've seen them fix the defense before. Now it's time to fix the offense. And it's a philosophy thing. They're not going to get a new offensive line. You're not going to fix the run game. You're just not. There can be creative run game. There can be things that they can do and run on the perimeter.

And you can soften people up in the middle of the defense in order to run the football more effectively. but it's not going to be a running team. They need to move away from that. They need to move away from that quickly. And if they make that fix, then I think that they can have something moving forward. Okay, now we've got to get into the fight. Oh, my gosh.

I mean, we've talked about this game for, what is it, 25 minutes now, and we haven't even talked about the fight. Okay. The fight. Let me talk first about it. college football. Okay, part of the reason that college football is so spectacular is because of the tribalism of our sport. You see, college football is blood, it's family, all right? It is not corporate. It's not professional sports. Now, I know people think like, oh, it's becoming that way,

but no, it will never be that way. I don't care how much money the players end up making which it's probably going to be significant, in particular once we get into revenue share, it still will be tribal, it still will be organic, and it still will be blood and family. And the reason is, is because it is the most unique sport in the world, period. People can say all they want about the tribalism of European soccer. And I understand that. No, I do. And listen, that's wild. That's wild. However, this is why college football is more unique than that. It's because none of those fans in the stands, whether it's Premier League soccer or the NFL or any other professional sport, not one fan can sit in the stands or watch on TV and say, I am a Kansas City chief.

I am Arsenal. Can't do that. However, all of these fans in college football, almost all of them, can say, I am. am a Wolverine. I am a Buckeye. I am a buffalo. It's part of my identity. It's part of my life. Not just because I choose to root for that team. No, no, no, no. It's because that is where I became me. My identity is in part a buff, a Buckeye, a Wolverine, a volunteer. That's why our sport is so incredible. It's so incredible.

Now, why do I position it that way before talking about this fight? Well, because I don't think that you can accurately talk about the emotions and after a game that way, unless you understand the emotions of the game and of the teams. And we love college football because it is played on an emotional red line. And it's more emotional than professional sports. We don't get this type of passion and intensity at the next level as we do in college. Because, again, these rivalries, these college, these college, colors, these songs, these traditions are part of who we are. Okay. It's part of who we are.

And because of that, we love the sport, but because of that, it operates right on the red line. And so when you get into rivalry weekend, what do you get? Emotions overflowing. And we didn't just see it in Columbus and the horseshoe. We saw it all over college football, all over college football. Okay. And I know that there are some that are up in our. about what has gone on this weekend in college football. And guess what? We cannot, we cannot love the sport because it's played on the emotional red line and then want to chastise those who play it on the emotional red line.

We cannot do that. I do believe that that's disingenuous. part of what made this weekend great is what also made it sad. And you can't have one without the other. So the fabric of our sport is going to lend itself to this. You see, I understand the emotions of both sides of what happened on Saturday in the horseshoe. That's why I said what I did to Gus. I cannot lay blame on either side because I understand the emotions from each side of the players.

Now, was it unfortunate? Absolutely. Do I want to see this? No, I don't at all. But at the same time, who am I to sit there and say like, oh, throw them all out, discipline, everybody? Listen, I wish the authorities would have been more prepared. I really do. And I thought it was just sad to see it devolve into a situation where there was pepper spray used.

Do I think that flags should be out? Probably not, you know, in these emotionally charged environments or pitchforks or whatever. And did Steve Sarkesian handle it really well down in College Station after seeing what he did on TV in the horseshoe? Yes, yes. And like, do I want to see that? No. But I'm sorry. I can't sit here and chastise these kids for being this emotional when that's exactly why we love the sport in the first place.

I can't do that. Okay. And we see these flagplants all the time, all the time. Texas did it to Michigan earlier in the season. Baker Mayfield has done it. Like this happens in college football. And I understand the feeling of feeling we're not going to allow that to happen on our field. So again, I'm not saying Ohio State is wrong.

and I'm not saying Michigan is wrong. I'm saying like, this is the unfortunate side of loving a sport that is going to be played on the emotional red line. And there's no other game that has played closer to that emotional red line than Michigan, Ohio State. I've been a part of a lot of broadcast over a long time. I've done Red River rivalries and I've done big games and I've done a lot of things in my career. Nothing comes close to the intensity of this rivalry. The intensity of the pressure that each team feels from its own fan base and from the opposite side of the field. It is totally unique and it is uniquely intense.

And what you saw was all of that spill out. All of it spill out. That was a supercharged environment. It was an ugly scene. I wish it wouldn't have taken place. But I can't sit here and chastise those involved when I've felt the same things. And in particular, why I love the sport for being so emotional and so tribal and thicker than blood. And like, that's why I love it.

So that's my whole thing. thought on that. That's my whole thought. I'm not going to sit here and chastise everybody on that. Now, if you want to say like, hey, let's take flags away from everybody, okay, that's fine. If you want to say, like, in these rivalry games, should we have authorities out there, you know, faster? Sure. I guess so. But I don't think that conferences should get involved in this. Just is what it is. Let's move on to the college football playoff because everything that happened over the course of the weekend, like had a giant impact on the postseason. And this postseason is going to be great, and it's made the regular season incredible. I continue to harp on this thought about how this,

this regular season has been as good as any that I can remember, and in large part due to the expanded playoff, because there's so many teams playing huge games. So here's what I want to do, and it's kind of piggybacking off of a tweet that I sent out on Saturday night. And I sent out my rankings, which everybody hates, that's fine. I think it's more interesting to start talking about, like, who's in and who's out, who's in, who's on the bubble in this college football playoff. That's more interesting than rankings. Like, to be, like, rankings really don't matter at this point.

So let's play a little bit of a game here. I think that there are teams that are in eight of them. I think that there are three more spots that are going to be automatic spots that we can talk about. and it's going to leave one at large spot. So let's kind of go through this. Let's walk through this. I believe that there are eight teams that are currently in the college football playoff.

Oregon is in. That's pretty clear. They beat Washington. They've been really good. Texas, they're in. Penn State. I think they're in. Notre Dame, that's pretty clear.

Ohio State, even after that loss, they're clearly in. Georgia is in. Even with a loss in the SEC championship game, if they were to lose, would still be in. is in. Indiana is in. Okay, so quickly on any of those teams, the Texas, Texas A&M game, I thought it wasn't even indicative of the score. Texas was a lot better than 17 to 7 better than Texas A&M. In fact, the only reason you're getting that score is that tipped pick six. Texas was dominant. That defense is very good. I think at their best, Texas is probably

my pick to win the national championship because I think like at their very best they might be better than anybody else. It's tough to go against Oregon right now. I still think Ohio State at their best is very good if they play their own game and not on the terms of their opponent. So those are my three kind of favorites in there. I don't believe Georgia is one of my favorites, not after what I saw against Georgia Tech. We have seen too many times now during the course of the year that this Georgia team is just not very, very, good. Now, that's relatively speaking, and that's probably more comparative to what they have been over the last couple of years. But that game, what was a Friday night against Georgia Tech, I mean, total survive. By the way, Georgia Tech, go for two in the first overtime. What are we doing? As soon as that game extended past the first overtime, the chances that Georgia Tech was going

to win was not very solid. Haynes King played incredible. That was a really great game. Good come back from Georgia. Unfortunate fumble there with about two minutes to go, which really cost Georgia Tech. And Georgia Tech, man, they almost beat Georgia. They beat Florida State. Who else they beat Miami. If you would have told them, like, let's say they would have beaten Georgia. If you would have told Brinkie before the year, you're going to beat Florida State, Miami, and Georgia, he would have been like, sign me up. Now, they didn't get it done against Georgia, but boy, that was an incredible game. And funny how Kirby didn't get. on a soapbox afterwards in an interview and talk about how difficult it was to win in the

SEC. Funny how that works when Georgia Tech comes in there and takes you right to your limit, how all of a sudden it wasn't tough to win in the SEC that night. So that's interesting. Texas wins over A&M. Penn State beat Maryland, by the way. Penn State kind of hammered Maryland and scored late. James Franklin was asked about it later. Apparently Mike Locksley took exception with it. I agree with James Franklin in this case. You heard what he said. If your twos and threes are in, they deserve to play hard. They go about their day.

They go about their business. If they get into the football game, they deserve to be put into a situation and position to succeed. So I'm with James Franklin on that one. There's no doubt Notre Dame took out USC. Notre Dame is quietly very good. If they could just throw it a little better, I would be very high on Notre Dame. But that team is playing really well. And I was actually surprised that USC was able to play so well on the offensive side against that Notre Dame defense.

But Notre Dame puts up 49 again. The offense has been just really good scoring a lot of points here in the back half of the year. Tennessee, congratulations, Vol fans. I know we have a like a tenuous, tenuous, tenuous relationship. Vol fans and I, I'm happy for you. In fact, we have a huge Vol fan on the staff. And I'm hoping that you get a home game so that she can go down there. to Knoxville and go to the game. That would be awesome. I would love to see a playoff game in

Knoxville. I think that would be great. We'll see how the seating comes out. Indiana, I do think is in. If you look at Indiana's resume, after everything that has happened, that's not a bubble team. They win 66-0 against Purdue, ends up firing Ryan Walters after the season, which, by the way, Purdue, don't fire Ryan Walters. What are you doing? You gave him like zero help. You didn't give him any resources and two years at a place that's really hard to win. And yeah, it's his problem that you gave him no resources in NIL and he loses Scorton and he loses all of his players. Give me a break.

That's the bummer side of college athletics. But Indiana beats them 66-0. And now, Indiana is sitting there. Their losses to Ohio State at Ohio State. Their 11 wins are by an average of 33 points per game. They have a one win by less than 14. and that was Michigan, which looks a lot better now after Michigan knocked off Ohio State. And if the strength of schedule is where you're sitting, it doesn't look as bad as what people would anticipate.

Their strength of schedule is 65. Yeah, it's not great, but SMU's is 75, Miami's is 55, Notre Dame's is 57, all of those teams right in there with Indiana. So that's how I get to the eight. Again, we'll flash that back up there. Eight teams are in right now in the college football playoff. I think firmly, and I don't believe that there's a lot of controversy with these eight. I'll go over them again. Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Georgia, Tennessee, and Indiana. We'll see how the seating comes out and who's going to get home games, but those eight are in.

Now, there's three more spots. Three more spots are going to be automatically given out, and these three goes as follows. The ACC champ, which is going to be SMU or Clemson, you've got the Big 12, champ, which is Arizona State or Iowa State. And then you've basically got the Mountain West champ, basically, Boise State or UNLV. Unless Boise loses and Tulane is ranked. You get all of this stuff. You get what I mean.

You've got the group of five champ that's going to be in, likely going to be Boise State if they're able to beat UNLV in the Mountain West Championship game. So those three would be in. That leaves us with one spot. I believe that there is basically one spot up for grabs, and we probably will know that spot, probably, although not completely, after this week's rankings. There is one game that I do think can affect the bubble, and we'll get into that in just a second. We'll get into it right now. SMU, if they lose to Clemson, would be a bubble team. So Clemson could play themselves in with a win in the ACC championship game because they are playing against SMU.

So if SMU were to lose that game, they would be on the bubble. Then you would get the three SEC teams that everybody is talking about right now, Alabama, Ole Miss, and South Carolina. And then maybe Miami is also a bubble team. Although I do think that if you look at the resumes, even though they're a two-loss team versus those three-lossed teams, I don't love their case. Now, the committee has liked Miami a lot more than I have,

and a lot more than I think that they should have, but they've liked them a lot. So we'll see where Miami falls to after that loss to Syracuse on Saturday. But there's the bubble. You've got five teams on the bubble, and one of them is only if they lose, which would be SMU as a loser in the ACC championship game. It'd be interesting to see how they would penalize or not penalize SMU for getting into that game. Like, for instance, SMU would likely be in now, and now they have to play an extra game.

Does that extra game in an ACC championship game definitely knock them out? That's fascinating. Then you're going to get to see how does the committee view these three SEC teams, Alabama, Ole Miss, South Carolina. And what I can't stand, I just can't. Like the politics season is just so frustrating. We hear it from Kirby all the time. We used to hear it from Nick Saban.

It's the only thing that Nick Saban ever did that I was just like, like, come on, man. Like, we don't need you soapboxing. I get why they do it. I understand it. I just don't love it. And now Lane Kiffin is out there and he's kind of taking up that torch. And now he's doing it through Twitter because he's new age, you know, right? He doesn't have to do it in his post game press conferences. He does it on Twitter. And basically he just screenshoted the opposition research that he was handed by some assistant with all these details about, oh, Misses, nine wins, outscoring their opponents, 390 to 94 plus 296. Alabama's margins only plus 252. It's like, Lane, come on. And I will tell you this. You know what I love?

I love when someone trolls him right back. So Brett Bilema, well done, sir. Brett Bilema chimes in, folks. And he just throws out there right on Twitter. He says, couldn't agree more, Lane Kiffin. Here's a thought for the college football playoff. And he lists some superlatives about Illinois. I love it.

He starts throwing out strength of schedule and losses and this or that. Now, does Illinois have a resume that can challenge Ole Miss? No, because they don't have the wins that would challenge Ole Miss. Remember, Ole Miss has got the win against Georgia. That's obviously going to count for a lot more, but I just love that Brett Bielma trolls him right back. I wish that we were done with political season back in November, but apparently we're not, and that's essentially what we've got. So that's the bubble.

where do I think we're going to fall on the bubble? Well, folks, I don't, I'm not telling you this, that I love this. I am telling you this. This is what I think is going to happen. I believe that the last team in the playoff is going to be Alabama. It's just what I believe. Now, you can argue all you want that Ole Miss should be in there. I do believe, based on how they've treated Indiana and SMU at times and all.

other teams that don't have the brand of others, brand can carry the day. And the path of least resistance, in this case, I think, would be Alabama. Now, that's a prediction. That's not what I'm arguing for. That's just a prediction. I think that Alabama is going to go to the college football playoff as the 12th seed. Unless Clemson were to win, and then they'd probably be the 12th seed, and you get what I'm saying. even if SMU loses, I think Alabama is going to go.

And I think that's going to break people's minds. I really do. Folks, I think that this weekend was incredible of college football. I think it is why we love the sport. I pinch myself when I get to do games like that. I know that it was supercharged and it was very intense. Thought about this show all weekend before I've been recording it about what I would say and how I would say it about Michigan and Ohio State because those two fan bases are intense

and they're passionate about their team, but that's what makes them great. That's what makes them great. My only hope is that we keep some level of perspective that this is a sport. It is not life and death. And I just don't believe that we should be treating any coaches' families differently because of outcomes in this game. And I firmly believe that. I love this sport. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. Remember to subscribe on YouTube.

Remember to hit the notifications button, if you would. Remember to follow us on social media at Joel Clatshow. Wherever you like to social media. We'll be back on Tuesday night. We'll record on Tuesday night. Wednesday, you can check out our full playoff reaction. We'll see if I was correct with these eight teams in, with the three at-larges that we're about to get

with the conference championship games. And then what does the bubble look like? We will talk about all of that. on Wednesday morning right here at the Joel Clash show.