The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Ranking Conferences & What if Penn State beats Michigan?

Episode Date: October 12, 2022

FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt ranks the best Power 5 conferences based on their top-end teams, national brands, and depth of the middle teams. Joel has SEC in the number one spot followed by the Big Ten. Next, Joel explains why he believes UCLA has a great chance to make the College Football Playoff. Then, Joel discusses some “What if?” scenarios, including what if Penn State beats Michigan? What if Tennessee beats Alabama? And finally, what if Texas runs the table? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

I meditated this morning. I tried to follow JJ's routine. I feel great. So you guys, I say give it a try. Okay. Joe, we got to meditate a little bit at half time. Okay. I mean, I'm a little high strong. I don't know how to do that. But you guys already knew that. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, man, I love it. I love Gus. He's the best. He's the best. What's up, everybody? Joel Cloud here. This is the Joel Clatt show. Hey, I'm loving doing this show. I'm loving the interaction that we've been having online. So let's keep it up. You can follow us at Joel Clad show. Follow me at Joel Clad on Twitter.

Hey, go back and download. Remember subscribe and download the show, even from Monday. We had a great show on Monday. And if you didn't listen to it, we had a lot of really cool things. Like I talked about LA football, USC and UCLA, both playing really well. Got into that. The Alabama Texas A&M game. and Ytex A&M reminded me of myself when I played minor league baseball.

You're going to want to check out that story. It involved me, three pitches, and Mark Pryor's Cavs. So definitely go check that up. Michigan, Ohio State, we talked about that. And then why Texas is so impressive, in particular with their quarterback, Quinn Ewers. That was on Monday. But today, we've got some awesome stuff for you.

I'm so excited about this episode. I'm going to take you through how I view conference. strength throughout the country, which everybody that takes shots at me about being an SAC hater hold my beer, about to go through conference strength. I'm going to talk about new blood in the playoff. I've got a team in the back of my mind right now that when you look at schedules, I just feel like as far as it is related to teams that could potentially make their first appearance in the CFP, I've got a good one. That's coming up. Not even ranked two weeks ago. Now they're ranked. And then we're going to go through some what-off,

what-if, excuse me, what-if scenarios about really this weekend and then the future year here in college football. Let's get things started here. Let's get into ranking the conferences. So let me start with this. It's so easy for me to put down the number one conference. Why is that? Well, because there's just a few criteria that I focus on when it comes to best conference. So here are some of those criteria, really three criteria. How good and deep is your top end? That's number one. So your best teams, how good are they?

And how many of them are there? That's number one. Number two then is how competitive and how deep is the middle of your conference. I actually don't really care about how best. bad your worst team is. I just kind of throw that out. And so I'm more focused on as that second line is like how competitive and how deep is the middle of your conference. And then the last thing I look at is, and I know this is where people are going to get upset with me over this one, but I look at the major brands within your conference and are they doing their job? Are they

carrying the flag for your conference throughout the country. And it's interesting because this year, we've got some of that, a lot of that, actually. And that's why it was really easy for me to land on my top three conferences in the country right now. Let me start. My number one conference in college football is, listen, this is no surprise. It's the SEC. We all know that the SEC is the best conference. I know it, and I've admitted it.

I don't know how many times all over the place. I get labeled as being this SEC hater because I will give other teams their due, because I don't totally buy in all the time head over heels for the SEC narrative. I don't hate the SEC. They're the best conference in the land. I obviously know that, and it's obviously true. They're not only producing the best teams in college football year over year with all their national championships, five of the eight college football players,

off national champions, but they're also producing the best players. Last year, 65 players from the SEC were drafted in the NFL, 12 of them in the first round. I mean, it's obvious, and I say this every single year, but all the fans of the SEC teams are like, clatt hates the SEC. That's untrue. The only thing I hate is the ridiculous narrative. By the way, you're really strong as a conference. You don't need the narrative. Right. just like let the truth set you free. Let the games on the field set you free. 12 national titles since 2006, but even more than that, because this is not a historical reference. I am also still trying to do this in a snapshot for 2022 this season. What's the best

conference this year? Well, it's not just historical for the SEC. They also, I think, have the best teams at the top. And they're the deepest in terms of top end and top tier teams in the country. So looking at you, Alabama and Georgia, certainly doing your part. Those two programs as of right now, and maybe you can include Ohio State and include Clemson, but certainly Alabama and Georgia. After playing for the national title a year ago, after doing what they do in recruiting year after year, fielding the teams that they have fielded and the wins that they've got even this year over Oregon or at Texas, they are the preeminent brands in college football. As long as Nick Sabin is at Alabama, they are the

preeminent brand in college football. Kirby Smart has done an amazing job. So at the top end, they're better than everybody else. And they've also got some teams that are backing them up on that tier right behind the top end. So Tennessee and the way that they've played, in particular with Hendon Hooker at quarterback, that's obviously a feather in their cap. And then a couple of teams that I don't know if we expected this, but have certainly played well to this point. Mississippi State comes to mind. Ole Miss comes to mind. There is not a quieter top 10 team. than Old Miss. Maybe actually, you know what?

Strike that. Oklahoma State and Old Miss. Two of the quietest, nobody's looking at them. No one's seen anything. It's just kind of like, oh, yeah, you know, they're in the top 10. They're undefeated. And good for them. We'll see if they stay there.

But the SEC, their strength at the top is something that I've always admired and always pointed to and said this is the reason why they are the best conference. They're also pretty good in the middle of the conference. Now, you can make an argument that maybe other conferences are better in the middle, but that becomes apples and oranges, and certainly you're not going to get an SEC fan to see it that way. But the big 12, the big 10, like, there's some conferences that in the middle of the conference, there's some serious competitive balance, and we're seeing that play out.

And then the last thing is, like, what are your major brands doing, right? That's the third criteria I told you about. And they're certainly in a driver seat mode with their two. two biggest brands, at least in football, carrying the torch for their conference. Alabama's been doing it since Nick Saban got there. Kirby Smart and that Georgia team are certainly do it. So they check every box. And it's not really all that close, although the Big Ten is very good.

And they're going to be my number two conference. But the SEC is the best conference this year. And those are the reasons why. Did you guys all get that? SEC fans? Hey, Ryan Rosillo, you constantly love to on your podcast, say that I hate the SEC. Is this better? Is this better? Like, I will acknowledge truth. And so that's the truth. And it also can be true that the narrative is stupid. Right. Like, I don't need Kirby Smart to tell me that it's tough to win in Missouri. That's stupid. That's stupid. And you all know it. All right, number two on my list is the Big Ten. And I think this is also pretty clear. It's not just because they're each going to get a buttload of money in their next rights deal. But it's also because they're really good.

at the top end. If you just go through the criteria, how good and how deep is your top end? Well, they've got three really good top 10 level teams. And by the way, they all rest in one side of the division. It makes that division, I think, the toughest division in college football. You might disagree, but you know, you can make the argument, certainly. With Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State in that Big Ten East, that is a ridiculously tough division. Those three teams are really good this year. We saw Michigan win the Big Ten and go to the playoff a year ago. We know that Ohio State plays at a really high level. They were in the national championship just a couple of years ago. And Penn State has recruited

at a really high level. And I tell you, that's a really good team. Can't wait to see them this week in the Big House. Just to give you some sense, I talked about the 65 draft picks that the SEC had last year in the NFL draft. The Big Ten was second on that list with 48 draft picks. The top end, though, they have one of those teams that could at least claim that they recruit and play at the same level as potentially the Alabama's and the Georgia's, the only ones and the Clemsons, the only one that has gone up there and actually played at that level. They beat Alabama en route to their last national championship. They beat Clemson in the playoff a couple years ago.

Ohio State is certainly at the top end, certainly at the top end. Then we saw Michigan last year, and granted, Michigan was not in the same class as Georgia, but no one was, if we're really honest with ourselves. Georgia was in totally different class by themselves. So they've got these top-end teams, and I think that that's important. And then the second, how competitive and deep is your middle, I would make the argument, and this is where some people disagree, but I would make the argument that the middle of the big 10 is as competitive and deep as any conference out there.

And the evidence bears that out. So in particular last year, 2021, Michigan State was an 11-win team. Kenneth Walker was fantastic at running back. Mel Tucker got a 10-year, $95 million. extension because Michigan State was so good. Nebraska barely retained their coach, who they've since fired, and they were, what were they, a three-win team, three and, what were they, three and nine, I think they were three and nine. And in that game at Michigan State, Nebraska held the Spartans to zero first downs in the second half. So to me, that means that

like the difference between the 11 win team and the 3-win team was not that far. So the competitive balance in that side and maybe even in particular in that West side of the conference is really good. Some people nationally like to downplay that and talk about why, hey, the West is why the Big Ten is no good. Well, I actually disagree with that. I think that it reminds me a lot of what the Big 12 race is right now, which is any team can win it. Right now, Illinois is the top team on the west side, and they've got the best

scoring defense in the country. Iowa, we've seen them win that conference, or at least that side of the division. We've seen Wisconsin do it. We've seen Northwestern do it. It's a tough side of the conference. Minnesota is primed to potentially make a run even after they lost their one game in that. I think the competitive balance in the Big Ten in the middle is really strong. And then the last thing, what are your brands doing and are they carrying the flag? I don't think that you can point to a year in which the three biggest brands in the Big Ten have done more, at least up to this point. All three of them in the top ten, all three of them undefeated, and certainly primed to make a run. Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State.

Two of those will be in the big house with Gus, Ginny, and I on the call on Saturday on Fox. Okay, let's move on. Because three through five is where it's tougher. And it's really easy to put the SEC one in the Big Ten to. Number three is a lot harder. And this year, after last weekend, it finally cleared up for me. The third best conference in 2022 is the PAC 12. And this is a big development for them because over the last few years,

I think it was pretty easy to put them at 5th. And now they're at 3rd. And let me tell you why. Let's go through the criteria. How good and how deep is your top level? Well, this year in the PAC 12, it's pretty good, pretty deep as well. I know that Washington's not ranked, but in my mind, you've got five teams that are quality top 25 caliber teams. USC, UCLA, Utah, Oregon, and Washington.

Oregon has played much better since that debacle in the first week against Georgia and, Dan Lanning's opener. Washington can throw the ball around, and they're in their first year with Killing DeBoer, and Michael Pennix has done a nice job. But the other three are really good teams. Now, Utah's already got two losses, and everyone's going to write them off? That's a good two-loss team. Like, I don't think that there's any way around that.

The unfortunate one was that they lost to Florida. I don't think that they should have lost to Florida, but they did. Last week, though, we saw a team actually kind of handle Utah for the first time in a long time. really for the first time since Cameron Rising became their starting quarterback after the first three, four weeks last season. They had been on a really nice run since then, and now all of a sudden you see UCLA kind of handle them. In fact, if you go back to the start of last year, the team of the Pack 12 with the highest winning percentage is the UCLA Bruins. That's a good football team, and then we know what USC is doing. That offense is very good. Caleb Williams is in the Heisman Trophy conversation,

and Lincoln Riley has made them an absolute factor. So here you go at the top level of this conference. You've got some legitimacy this year, really for the first time in a while. I know that Oregon went out on the road and beat Ohio State last year, but they didn't back it up. That wasn't a team that was backing it up. This year I get the sense that that's just a better and deeper conference, and that goes to point number two, how competitive and deep is your middle.

And part of this is that Oregon and Washington can also be in the middle, but I'm impressed with teams like Oregon. State. I'm impressed with teams out there like Washington State. Those teams, you know, Washington State was a couple of votes away from being a top 25 team a week ago before they played USC. So these are all reasons why I think the PAC 12 is the number three conference right now in 2022. Last thing, brands, are they carrying the flag? Well, here you go. The two LA schools undefeated, both I think should be in the top 10 and are in my top 10, but UCLA just outside of the top 10 in the AP poll. They're carrying.

the flag. They're doing their job. So the PAC 12 for me is number three. Number four was easier because really it was between two conferences for three and four. And I landed on the PAC 12 for three. So that means that the Big 12 is number four. The Big 12

doesn't have the first element. They just, they don't this year. They don't have that great, deep, high level play. Now, I would make the argument that they're the most competitive and they're the most deep throughout the conference. Right now,

and last place in that conference are two teams that I think are both decent. I think OU is much better than what they're showing right now and Iowa State. And they're last right now. So there's not an easy game in that 10 team conference. There's just not. Kansas is not easy. West Virginia is not easy. So they're as competitive and deep throughout their conference as any. The problem is at the top level, I just don't sense that they've got a team that can go out there and compete with the best teams in the country, except for Texas. And if Texas was undefeated right now, they would have been number three, but they're not. So they wound up at number four. Because in that third element, are your brands carrying the flag? That's where

the Big 12 falls woefully short. They're two biggest brands, and I don't care if they're leaving anytime soon. Their two biggest brands are OU and Texas. And to this point, OU has been really a complete disappointment after the first three weeks. I've never seen a team fall off a cliff as fast as OU has, and I hope that they get it back and quickly, and I think that they will, to some degree. I don't know how great they're going to be, but to some degree. And Texas has those two losses. And by the way, once Quinn Ewers got injured by Alabama, I told you that that was going to happen on this program. If you've listened to the Joel Clat show, you know that that next week I came out and I said, listen, Texas at their best with yours is really good, as good as any team in America.

Now that they don't have him, you look in the next few weeks, they will lose before Red River. I said that, verbatim. And they did. And they lost the Texas Tech. They do have great depth, though, as we all know. And I think that we can all see that that conference is going to be very difficult to win. More on Texas coming up. That leaves one conference for number five, and it's the ACC, and I think it's pretty clear. Now, while they check the box at the top, Clemson is very good and that's a team that's probably going to be in the CFP. Outside of that, do you really know or trust anything else in that conference? Because I don't.

I don't. Let's just put it to you this way. If you were to take any team not named Clemson and put them up against any of these Big 12 teams, do you really feel good about the ACC's matchup? Do you really feel good about North Carolina State facing T.C.' I mean, I don't. Do you really feel good about Wake Forest facing Texas? I mean, I don't. So ACC, I'm sorry, but you're number five. Clemson is carrying the torch. They're your biggest brand at this point. It sure would help if Florida State and Miami could get back to where

they have been in their past. But right now, the ACC is falling short on a lot of different criteria. I don't know how competitive and deep their middle is. And I know I told you I wasn't going to focus on who your worst team is. And up to this point, I haven't focused on who your worst team is. The problem in the ACC is that there's like four or five really bad teams. Okay, so listen, if you want to, like Northwestern's no good this year. They're one and five. Vandy. Yeah, we get it. It's, it's Vandy. In the PAC 12, unfortunately, and this pains me greatly, it's Colorado, but by the way, someone's going to be, some, you coaches out there, Colorado's a good job. You got that? You hear me? You hear what I'm talking about? Colorado's a good job.

Having said that, Colorado, they're not very good right now. But you got four or five of those in the ACC. And so the ACC winds up at number five. So there you have it. Those are my conference rankings. Number one, SEC. Number two, Big Ten. Those are pretty clear and firmly entrenched.

Then you get the movement. I go Pack 12 this year, then Big 12, then ACC in my conference rankings. I don't rank the group of five because, to be honest with you, it's too all over the place. You know, you get one team that's pretty good. the rest of the conference can be really bad. And it's too difficult because there's too many matchups where they're overmatched to really rate exactly how good those conferences are. Let's move on.

Let's talk about the CFP. All right. So, folks, we know the top five teams in the country and they're pretty clear. All right. And this is where the AP poll, they have it right. Now you can fudge with the order and like, yeah, I have Ohio State at number one. but it really doesn't matter. It doesn't matter, right?

And like all these people that are... By the way, you all on Twitter, you get so mad about, like, who's number one and who's number two? It's like, relax, relax, right? Like, it doesn't matter yet, okay? Now, having said that, we know who the top five teams are.

In some combination, and I don't care how you put them, you've got, you know, let's see, Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, you've got then Michigan Clemson. Okay, those are all five, like, yeah, we get it. Those five are going to be in this thing. And by the way, all of those five have made college football playoffs.

But when you go from six all the way down to, what is Oregon, 12, none of the rest of the teams in the AP top 10, all the way down to 11, have made a playoff. And again, Oregon is sitting there. And yes, they've made a playoff. It was the first playoff with Marcus Mariotta. It would be hard for them. So, like, is there a potential for new,

blood. I think all of us would love some new blood. Like last year, I thought it was great that Michigan got there. You can say what you will about how they played against Georgia. And again, Georgia totally overmatched that Michigan team. Having said that, it was good to have new blood in the college football playoff. We need that. It's one of my main arguments for why it's needed to expand for a long time. But having said that, there is some potential this year. Now, you could see those four spots get taken up by four of those top five teams. And maybe that's not even like almost likely, but very likely. And sure, you know, by percentages, you're probably right. Having said that, what team that hasn't made the playoff has the best chance of making the

playoff? Now, I want you to be very clear about what this exercise is. This is not who's the next best team. this is the best chance to make the playoff. You've got to look at schedules. You've got to look at path, and you've got to understand how difficult that path is based on the matchups that will be in front of these teams. Okay, so that's the exercise. New blood, path, who do we got?

You ready for this? Do you know the most likely team? UCLA. UCLA. Watch out for the Bruins. I'm not even telling you, that this is like a likely scenario. I'm just saying of the teams that have not made the playoff yet,

the most likely path is UCLA. UCLA first and foremost is very balanced. Chip Kelly has done a heck of a job. Dorian Thompson Robinson is playing at a borderline Heisman level, maybe Pac-12 player the year level. His experience has materialized into efficient, play. He's throwing the ball well. He's making plays with his feet. It's a team that can run it really well with Zach Charbonnet. Remember, he transferred from Michigan a couple of years ago.

Jake Bobo, the transfer wide receiver, they throw it well. They throw it efficiently. They're good up front. They're really good up front. And I'm impressed with their offensive line, but it's not just an offensive team. This is not even like kind of chips teams from Oregon. This is a team that also goes out there and plays tough on the defensive side. Would it shock you to know that they're the number two total defense in the PAC 12? They're the first defense in the PAC 12. Number one, number one in terms of yards per play. That's why they handled Utah.

Nobody has handled Utah. Nobody since Cameron Rising was their quarterback at the, you know, what was it, third, fourth game of last year. Even Ohio State struggled with them. Clearly Florida struggled with them. and Utah should have won that game. This is a team that handled Oregon twice. That's a good football team.

And UCLA totally beat them up last Saturday at the Rose Bowl. Thoroughly impressed with UCLA. Okay, so it's not just about you, UCLA. It's also about the path. So let's talk about the path just a little bit. And before we talk about UCLA's path, well, let's talk about UCLA's path. Here's what they've got in their next four, at Oregon, Stanford, Arizona State, and Arizona. Nothing scares me all that much.

Now, I know Oregon is a good football team, and they might lose. And I'm not saying that this is even imminent that they're going to be a playoff caliber team or even that they'll play for the Pact 12 championship. But I am telling you that it's of these teams that have not made the playoff, it's the most likely and plausible path that I can create. Nothing scares me on their schedule. And in particular, USC and more on that in a moment. I think that they've got the best chance of any of these teams to go undefeated and win their

conference. and at that point, they're going to the playoff. They're going to the playoff. It doesn't matter if two undefeateds face each other in the SEC championship game. I still believe if UCLA or any Pac-12 team, but if UCLA were to go undefeated and be a Pac-12 champ, they would go. They would go. The committee would honor that, and I firmly believe that.

And their actual resume at that point would not be bad. They would probably have five, four, or five ranked wins. Now you start looking at these other teams, and I know, like Tennessee fans are all upset, and USC fans certainly are all upset. But look at the path and plausibility of some of these other teams. If you look past those top five and you say, okay, who's next? Tennessee.

All you have to do is just close your eyes and you picture. So I'm closing my eyes. So close your eyes with me. And picture. Tennessee has to play Alabama. They still have to go to Georgia and then face likely Alabama again in the SEC championship game. Tennessee would have to win two of those three and for sure the second one against Alabama.

Most likely. Most likely. Is that all that plausible? That's nothing against Tennessee. I love what Tennessee is doing. Doesn't that seem a little premature for Josh Hyple? Doesn't it seem like what we've seen from them might fall just a little bit it short against Obama team this weekend, maybe, or Georgia on the road, or certainly in an

SEC championship game with the stakes and the stage that that game would have? I just don't think that that's very plausible. Even if you're a diehard Tennessee fan, you realize the uphill climb that that is. Two of those three. Now we look at USC and you might be thinking, well, Joel, isn't USC ranked higher than UCLA? and wouldn't their path be more plausible? Yes and no. Here's the problem with USC is that it depends so much on their style.

I talked about this on Monday. Again, you can go back and you can download that edition of the show. Their style, basically, let's put it in different terms. They have to play the game on their terms to win because their defense is not good enough or tough enough to just go out there and stop the run. Therefore, if they're playing a close game or they have to play from behind, they're just going to get bludgeoned to death by a run game.

It might happen this week on the road against Utah. It certainly could happen against UCLA. They don't have good matchups against those two teams, just period. So the path is less plausible than UCLA. I'm not even saying that like UCLA. No, no, no, no. It's just that USC is such a specific style of, of team. If their defense doesn't have a lead, they can't get pressure on the quarterback. If they

don't get pressure on the quarterback, they don't cause the chaos in the pocket that leads to overthrows, tips, and the turnovers. They're number one in the country in interceptions. They're number one in the country in sacks. If you take that away from them and you force them to play what I would call balanced defense, they're in trouble. They're in trouble. We saw that a little bit in Corvallis against Oregon State. Who's the next team? Oklahoma State. Well, listen, their next four are against ranked teams, including having to play Texas. I don't think that they have the margin and talent to just walk through that schedule in that league, which I already talked about as the deepest and most difficult to win.

Who's next on that list? Penn State. Now, Penn State would be number two on this list to UCLA because they only have two hurdles. They've got basically two giant matchups and maybe a third mixed in there. there, but they're all right here. Penn State has three weeks to define their season, starting this week in the big house. They face Michigan, then Minnesota, then they host Ohio State. Great chance for Penn State. I love their matchup, by the way, against Michigan. They're going to have to play well against Minnesota, and then they're going to have the big one against Ohio State.

So, yeah, it's like, it could happen. And I think of these next kind of contenders is probably the the second most plausible, but not as plausible as U.S.LA. Not with what UCLA has done in terms of balance and running the football and playing defense. So there you go. UCLA, folks, their actual resume, when you look at what's the most likely new blood in the college football playoff? UCA. Isn't that how you know? It's like eight clap. I don't think I did that. Absolutely correct. But it was close. The UCLA Bruins. All right, let's move on

because we've got some things happening this week and really throughout the rest of the season that could throw a huge wrench into the college football year. Let's get it started. What if Penn State beats Michigan? Yeah, I love this thought, right? Because it's going to be difficult one.

So that means that we would have a great game on Saturday. I'm rooting for a great game. Now, James Franklin has never beaten a team. top 10 team on the road. So it would mark a really significant milestone in that program and for James Franklin. It would set up just a monster two weeks like I just talked about between Minnesota and then Ohio State. And then you get, by the way, the benefit of having Ohio State in your building. And you'd probably hope for some rain and slow them down and grow the grass up. I mean, it would be amazing. Now, their season, like I just told you, is right.

now this three weeks, if they get through these three weeks, they're in the driver's seat. They're in the driver's seat for not only a Big Ten championship, but potentially a playoff. The problem is, is if they were to lose this week, then the best they can hope for is probably to try to nip Ohio State, then get into some sort of three-way tie in which I honestly don't really know what the tiebreakers are. You've got to get to like the eighth tiebreaker, and then they start looking at your cross-division opponents and what their winning percentages are. You want to avoid that. You don't want to be 11-1 Penn State with 11-1 Ohio State and 11-1 Michigan.

You just don't want that. So this week is huge. And if you want to avoid that three-way tie break, if you want to give yourself a chance to go to the playoff, winning this week at the Big House is where it starts. Last year they were 5'0. They went to Iowa and they lost their season fell off a cliff, similar to what Oklahoma's has this year in 2022. In order to avoid that, they have got to run the football this weekend.

If they run the football against that Michigan D, they're going to have a chance. They are definitely going to have a chance in that one. All right. Next up. What if Tennessee beats Alabama? All right. Now, I mean, there's a lot of hype on this one. But we don't, I mean, we don't really think this is going to, we don't really think this is going to happen, do we?

It's like, we do, do you think, do you get? Do you think Tennessee's going to win? If you tell me right now Bryce Young plays, I think Bama wins. Although, although, I will tell you this, Bama struggles on the road. I've been telling you that since really last year, and certainly since the beginning of this year. They struggled last year against, let's see, Florida.

They lost to Texas A&M, four overtimes against Auburn, went down to Texas, won by a point because Bryce Young put a cape on his back and was fantastic in the fourth quarter. Like they haven't, listen, what they did last week was sloppy, but they got away with it. They can't play like that again. And that place will be on fire. On fire.

Tennessee fans, you and I have an adverse relationship, certainly. But I will tell you guys have serious passion. That is going to be raucous. Neelan stands no chance if Tennessee were to win. I will say this, though, Bama has a bullet to play with here, because even if they were to lose outside of their division, I don't see them not getting to the SEC championship game. Even if Bama loses, they still control their own destiny to go to the playoff

because as we know, Alabama and probably Georgia at this point too, they get the benefit of the doubt. They get the benefit of the doubt. And for Tennessee, you know what that would do? Tennessee would get basically a firm handshake from their dad and a big old good luck against Georgia because they would have Georgia's full attention. This is why I think it's so difficult for them

to actually win their division, to actually go to the SEC championship game, to actually win the SEC and actually go to the playoff, is that even if they win this one, they're going to get Georgia's full attention in Athens. So that's why it's so difficult. All right, last up.

What if the Texas Longhorns run the table? Ooh! I like that one. That one's surprised me. I mean, could they get consideration? They might. They might. I mean, that committee is supposed to take into consideration who's hurt, when they lose, style of game. With Quinn Ewers, that's one of the best teams in America. I was so impressed. So I watched the film of Red River already. And I just got to tell you, like, Steve Sarkesian is excellent.

an offensive coordinator. By the way, later today, we're going to have Breaking the Huddle presented by Dr. Pepper on FS1. Make sure to check it out because I've got a breakdown of why Steve Sarkesian is so good and then also why coupling that with the talent of Quinn Ewers is electric. They're really good. If they were to go and run the table and win the Big 12, let's just play this out. I'll tell you what, let's create a scenario.

Let me paint a scenario for you as we get ready. ready to leave today. Let's just say there's four teams being considered for three spots. Let's say Georgia's in. They're the SEC champ. Let's say Clemson is in.

They're the ACC champ. And let's say Ohio State is in. They're the Big Ten champ. And then there's four teams left that all had really great seasons. Okay. And here we are debating what's going on. Alabama 12 and 1 non-champ

Michigan 11-1 non-champ non-division champ USC or UCLA 12-1 champ Pac-12, Texas 11 and 2 Big 12 champion who gets in who gets in four teams for one spot

you can make an argument for almost all of them. The team that will likely get thrown out first is Michigan, okay? Because they would be a non-division champ. So then you're down to three teams, one spot. Alabama, non-champ, the Pac-12 champ, either USC or UCLA as a one loss, and then a two-loss Texas. Basically, we would be down to relitigating the game in Austin, Texas and Alabama, the injury to Quinn Ewers. It would be a beautiful disaster, folks. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Texas has at least an argument at the end of the year if they were to go 11 and 2. I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility.

I don't know if they're going to be able to do it. That's a tough conference. And we've seen Texas take dips and lulls and not play well in weeks. I mean, heck, they lost to Kansas last year. Now, granted, Kansas was getting a lot better, but we'll see if Texas can do it. I kind of hope that they do because that would be an amazing exercise at the end of the season. Who gets in? Who gets in?

Bama, non-champ, one loss. One loss, Pac-12 champ, Texas, two loss, Big 12 champ. Amazing. Amazing. And I root for chaos. That'll do it for today's show. I'm Joel Clatt. This is the Joel Clatt show.

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