The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - The 10 teams most likely to make their first 12-Team College Football Playoff this season

Episode Date: July 20, 2026

The expanded playoff has allowed 20 different teams to make it to a 12-team College Football Playoff over the last 2 years but which programs are most likely to make it to their first appearance this season? Fox Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt tackles that question as he ranks his favorite candidates including teams that made the 4-team Playoff but have yet to make it into the 12-team format like Michigan and LSU as well as programs like USC still looking to make it back to the top of the sport. He also brings in teams from the Big 12 that will have a path to the Playoff like BYU and Arizona and an ACC team that could sneak their way into a win-and-in ACC Championship Game appearance. Chapters 🏈 0:00-3:25 1st time cfp teams in the 12 team format  3:26-7:18 Number 10  7:19-10:32 Number 9  10:33-13:44 Number 8  13:45-16:02 Number 7 1:03-18:34 Number 6 18:35-22:39 Number 5 22:40-27:10 Number 4  27:11-30:09 Number 3 30:10-32:24 Number 2 32:25-38:12 Number 1 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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that could absolutely make a playoff run this year. That's why Lane Kiffin is there. This team screams playoff this year. Hey, welcome into the program. This is the Joel Clatt show. I'm Joel Clatt. This show is brought to you by Graduate by Hilton. We thank them for their support as always. And the offseason rolls on. We thank you for being a part of it. And today it's going to be teams to make their first CFP in the 12-team format. Now, last year I did this where we predicted some of the teams that could potentially make their first playoff. And, you know, we hit on a couple. Ole Miss, Miami, those came to fruition. But the premise this year is not going to be just playoff in general, because now it goes back quite a long time. Now it's just the 12-team version.

So in the last two years, obviously, we've had the 12-team version. And now I'm going to have 10 teams that have not been in the playoff in the last two years that I think would be the most likely based on schedule, roster, a lot of different factors that could potentially be a first-time 12-team playoff participant this season. So let's get started right away. We're going to go 10 to 1. These are getting my 10 most likely. Now, if I had to, or if I got to ask you here starting at 10, how many teams do you think made the playoff in the last two years? What would you think? Would you think like 15? Is 15 the right number? 16? the right number. Now, I've argued that this playoff has been good because it's expanded the

definition of success for college football. But is that accurate? Joel, you might be asking me. And the answer is absolutely. There have been 20 teams make the playoff in the last two years, just the last two years in the 12 team format. See, I think that that's been fantastic. And what I thought was more surprising after digging into the numbers is that there's only been four teams that have made both of those playoffs, each of the last two years, three from the Big Ten and Georgia. You got Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon, and then Georgia. Those are the only four teams in the country that have been to each of the last two. So there's a good chance that we're going to have likely some turnover and some new teams this year. Now, is a little bit tougher? Yes,

because now we've got 20 teams sitting out there. And let's face it, out of those 20 teams, you've got a lot of playoff contenders that have been to the playoff in the last two years prior. Now, one of the things that's also interesting, and this is why I wanted to get into it right here at number 10 is the conference makeup. Because as the Big 10 has been more separated from its middle, and we've got great programs that have gone on to win national championships in the middle of the conference has kind of stayed pat, what's happened in the SEC is that the top of the conference has come back to the middle and the middle has grown. So that's been a deeper conference. So here's the evidence of that. We've had seven SEC teams make the college football

playoff just in the last two years, whereas we've only had four Big Ten teams enter the playoff in the last two years. So when you're doing a list, and I give you all this backstory to say, when I give you a list of the teams to make their first 12 team format, it's going to skew towards other conferences outside of the SEC because there's just too many SEC teams that I can't select. I can't select Tennessee. They've already been in. I can't select Ole Miss, all of those things. So I wanted to outline the premise before I get into number 10. And at number 10, it's going to be Iowa, one of those middle of the road right now, Big Ten programs that have had a lot of success under Kirk Ferrence and now looking for the opportunity to level up. So what does it take to level up? Obviously, you have to improve from a roster standpoint.

And that's a question whether they're going to be able to do this or not. But it's also hitting the right schedule. As we know right now in these big conferences, even though it's a little bit less of a lottery with a nine game conference schedule, which the SEC will learn this year. It is still about when you play teams, where you play them, and who you miss in your schedule, because you're not going to play everybody. Iowa's had eight plus wins in the last 10 full seasons. Kirk Ferrence is as consistent as anybody in the sport. So you know that some of these losses that they sustained in the draft, which, by the way, it was a great draft for Iowa.

I think it was seven players drafted this year in the NFL draft. For them, though, it's about replacing the right players, the offensive linemen from that Joe Moore Award winning offensive line. That was obviously a very good group. Can you replace those players up front? Now, we believe that the case, that they will be able to replace those guys up front. You've got Kamari Molten back at running back. You've got an FCS leading rusher in LJ Phillips. They went kind of the FCS division to, you know, smaller college route to fill some of these portal spots going the Indiana route. Remember, production over potential. So they've hit the portal for experience players from the G5 from the FCS.

I think a lot of those guys will be smart experienced guys who will pay off in things like Phil Parker's defense. I've talked about that at times during the course of the offseason, which, by the way, if you haven't subscribed to the program, you probably should on YouTube because all of this content is rolling out during the course of the off season. You want to make sure that you're here for it. All right, now we get into the schedule piece for Iowa. The non-conference is very manageable.

They've got Iowa State. They're going through a total rebuild. that game is in Iowa City. Then comes kind of a pivotal stretch in the schedule. They've got games four through six. Can they get at least one win in this stretch? I think this is their pivotal stretch. And again, they need one win out of these three.

Michigan, Ohio State, Washington, two of those on the road. You've got to go to Michigan. You've got to go to Washington. Now, obviously difficult, but you bring in Ohio State into Kinnick Stadium. And even Ryan Day will tell you that's one of the toughest places to play. In fact, when Ryan Day was coordinator back in the day when Urban Meyer was still the head coach, they went in there with J.T. Barrett a week after beating Penn State, and they got beat pretty handily by Iowa. So not an easy place to play. Iowa needs at least one of these games in that stretch in order to look at the rest of the schedule and say to yourselves,

okay, I think we can go 10 and 2 because 10 and 2 out of the Big 10 likely gets you in. Now, is it likely that they go 10 and 2? Maybe, maybe not. but I'm just saying that that's a team that certainly has the schedule with that three-game stretch, where if they get one of those, then watch out. If they take care of business everywhere else, if they can stay healthy and develop their quarterback, then you could see Iowa making a push late in the season. Last premise that I want to talk about here before we get into the rest of these teams is every one of these teams, I think that there is a path, not directly to the playoff,

but there's a path to playing games late in the season with a real shot, a real shot, kind of like win and in. And again, if Iowa gets one of those three at Michigan, Ohio State, at Washington, then they'll be playing at Northwestern and Purdue and at Illinois and against Nebraska late in the season. And if they only have one or two losses at that point, you know, like, heck, here we go. Iowa will be playing for their right to go to the college football playoff. All right.

Again, like I said, tougher to find teams in the middle of the SEC because we've had seven SEC teams. We've only had four big 10 teams go to the playoff in the last two years. And so a lot of these teams that have not made it in the last two years are going to come from other conferences other than the SEC. That's not a knock against the SEC. It's just the numbers. So for me, number nine is Washington. When I looked at Washington last year, I really liked them. I really liked their schedule.

I like what Jedfish builds. He builds good quality programs. We know that. They've got their quarterback, Demand Williams, back. He's got four returning starters on the offensive line. I think the big key for DeMond Williams is going to be playing better in big games. I had him at Michigan last year, and he did not play well. He threw a couple of really poor interceptions.

That really hurt them. And that's a good football team. I think that's a good program. Now, they don't have the easiest schedule. There's no doubt. But when you look at their toughest games, Their toughest games are going to start with teams like at USC October 3rd for Jed Fish. Remember, this was a 9 and 14 last season.

Just his second season there, three win improvement from year one. He improved every year at Arizona before getting the Washington job. I would think that that's going to continue. So he's got this tough stretch kind of right through the middle of the season. October 3rd, they go to USC, not an easy place to play. USC was undefeated at home last year. They welcome Iowa in. that's a week after USC.

They welcome Penn State into Husky Stadium. They have Indiana at home. That one's really late. And then at Oregon, obviously, to end the season in their rivalry game. I think that this lines up because of those home games. Because remember, the premise is, can you be playing games late in the season with a chance, with a chance? They are 25 and 2 at Husky Stadium. This is one of the great home teams in all of college football.

In fact, the only Power 4 team that has a better. home record over the last four seasons is Georgia. Four seasons, 25 and two at home. Washington has done that. I mean, they've always had a good home field advantage, but in the last four years, it's been pronounced. And obviously, when you're talking about you're doing something that only Georgia has done better, you're doing something right. So you look at those home games, Iowa, Penn State, and then maybe Indiana. Can you beat USC on the road? If you can get to the point where you're facing those last two, those last two and you're a nine and one football team. Let's say you lose to USC, but you take care of business at home and you're getting Indiana

at home and you're nine and one if you're Washington. Then it's real. Then it's real. And you have a real shot if you knock off Indiana or if you knock off Oregon that you would be a 10 and two and absolutely included in the college football playoff. That would be their first playoff appearance since going a few years ago in the four team model. Remember they played for the national championship. But the premise of this, show is teams that have not made the 12-team format. So Washington gets included right there. Can you knock off one of those two at the end if you get yourself into that position? That would be the question for DeMond Williams in a big game, for Jed Fish in a big game.

One of those at home, by the way. All right, number eight, now we're going to get on a run of big 12 teams and maybe an ACC team as well. And the reason is because in the Big 12, it's really about can you get yourself to the Big 12 championship game? Now, we have not seen multiple teams from the Big 12 make the 12 team playoff. So the premise here is going to be, do you have a schedule that I feel like you can get to the conference championship game and then it's a 60 minute affair? Now, obviously, Texas Tech has been to the 12 team playoff. Arizona State has been to the 12 team playoff.

So of these teams that have not gone in the last couple of years, who are the likely candidates? Well, at number eight, I'm going to look at Houston. Houston is a team, they're coming off a 10-win season and finishing in the top 25 under Willie Fritz. And Willie Fritz is a really good football coach. I think that we know that. They bring back their quarterback, Connor Wegman.

He's got an all big 12 wide receiver, Amari Thomas on the outside. They added Mackay Hughes. Remember, Mackay Hughes was with Fritz back in the Tulane days. And that worked for them. And Mackay Hughes went to Oregon. We thought he was going to be a huge contributor for Dan Landing a year ago. And that didn't really pan out. So now he's back with Fritz this time at Houston.

They're coming off a 10-win season. and I like what I see. They added wide receiver Trent Walker. He had 149 catches over the last two years at Oregon State. He's a really good player. And then the Big 12, again, it's about finding your way into that championship game. Now you've got a coin flip game. You've got 60 minutes for the right to go to the college football playoff.

That's what this is all about. Can this team do that? Yeah. The Big 12 has gotten their champion of the playoff each of the last two years. And if they were to win this championship this year, then they would go. Now, if you look at the road for, them. What's the schedule for Houston? Well, they've got a road game at Texas Tech. I don't love that. And even with the Soresby News, I think it opens up the conference a little bit with the Brendan Soresby News and

everything he's dealing with. But in week three, going to tech, that's not easy. But Houston does not play BYU, Arizona, or Arizona State. So they've got this critical three-game stretch where they've got Kansas State, Oklahoma State, with like, you know, North, North Texas is what Oklahoma State is now, and Utah. And at Utah is going to be a tough one because obviously that's a difficult place to play in Salt Lake. That's their critical stretch right there. If they can get past Utah on October 24th, they hit a buy week, then look at their November. Their November is not difficult. So they're just going to have to get themselves going right through that three game stretch. and then they've got Cincinnati, their Vegas win total is five and a half.

Colorado, their Vegas win total is four and a half, West Virginia, five and a half, Baylor, six and a half. In a conference that we think is so evenly matched, that's a good finish. That is a good finish to your schedule. I feel like it's not quite the schedule lottery for Houston, but man, that's a good finish. And if Willie Fritz and this team can get to a point where their win, those games late and they get themselves into the Big 12 championship game, they could easily go to the playoff. And that would be the first time they've done that in their history.

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I like Arizona here. I was a big fan of Arizona in the bowl game. I covered them in the Holiday Bowl. I know they didn't play great in that game, but they didn't, excuse me, in the second half. Brendan is now in year three in Tucson. He brings back his first team all big 12 quarterback, Noah Fafita. Going into year four,

as a starter. I mean, this guy is as experienced as anybody. They retain their defensive coordinator, so they're going to have some continuity there. That's Danny Gonzalez. Danny Gonzalez brings a really unique structure. It's hard for teams to prepare for. It's like the defensive version of trying to face a service academy. And they brought some defensive help to fill in the portal because they lost a lot of really good players, in particular out of the secondary, some of those guys to the draft, like Trading Stukes. Replacing those guys is going to be tough for Arizona. There's no doubt.

But remember, they did it with guys that weren't heavily recruited to begin with. They developed. And I think it's a development staff. Now you look at the schedule. You've got the returning quarterback. You think you can replace some of that production on the defensive side. Now it's about the schedule. It's backloaded.

Now they have an early game at BYU. Not going to be easy because BYU is a tough place to play. Can they be six and one going into the Halloween game? Okay, so on Halloween, they're going to play at Texas Tech. Obviously a difficult place to play. You don't want to play at BYU and at Texas Tech. Those were the two best teams in the conference a year ago. But you look at their last five.

If you can get yourself to six and one, possibly, maybe even 7 and 0, going into this last stretch, now you've got these last five where you're just trying to get yourself into the conference championship game, and then it's a coin flip. You've got 60 minutes to possibly go to the playoff. I really like the fact that they don't have to go to Utah. Okay, so Kansas State, not an easy place to play. And we'll see what Colin Klein is all about as the new head coach at Kansas State.

That's his alma mater. I'm interested to see what that looks like. Some people really like them. I'm more of a wait and see. At tech is difficult, but with their quarterback situation right now, what are they going to look like? They've got to replace all those defenders on the outside as well, those edge rushers. I like Arizona.

I really like Arizona. So they're number seven right now on my teams that completely. potentially make the playoff for the first time. Number six, I know, I know. You guys are going to be like, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. We get it. We knew we're about to hear this one. It's Utah.

It's Utah. Our run of Big 12 teams continues because, again, with the Texas Tech News, now it's just about getting to the conference championship game. So which are the most likely candidates to do that? I think Utah is one of those. Obviously, Morgan Scali isn't going to flip everything upside down in salt. Lake. This guy is a Utah lifer. He's been in that building his whole career. He played, I mean, Morgan's a hell of a football coach. They're still going to be aggressive

on defense. They're still going to be good on the offensive line, you know, and now a chance for him to put this program in his image. You know, it's been Kyle's program for so long. Morgan is a wonderful defensive coach. I think he understands culture. He's gotten to learn from Kyle Whittingham. They're not going to go anywhere. where they got their quarterback back as well. Devin Dampier is back, along with Wayshon Parker. They're running back. They've got to rebuild that offensive line.

That's certainly a concern. Certainly a concern. They miss Fano now. Obviously, he's gone. They've got their other tackle was drafted in the first round. I'm just totally blanking his name, but two tackles in the first round. That's not easy. Schedule those sets up nicely for Utah.

You know that they have one of the best home field advantages in the Big 12. Okay, they've been great at home. They have a real shot at starting 6 and 0. Real shot. They've got Idaho, Arkansas, Utah State, at Iowa State, and then an off week. And then they've got Kansas and at Colorado. All right. All right.

Listen, that doesn't sound terrible if you're Utah. And then the last six are a lot more challenging. So they're going to get Houston and BYU, but both of those are at home. That's a pay-by game for BYU. That loss in Provo last year was the only thing that kept them out of playing for the Big 12 champion. game a year ago and having a shot to go to the playoff. They lost the tech, they lost to BYU.

Those two teams went and played for the conference title. They've got road games at Arizona and TCU and back-to-back weeks in November. I think that's a difficult stretch for them. But this is a schedule that I think sets up pretty well for them. I think that Houston and BYU game are where it's at and then going to Arizona, that's going to be a tough, difficult game. The winner of that game, Houston, Arizona, I really like their chances to go to the Big 12 championship game.

I just, I really do. So Utah is at number six. All right. We move out of the Big 12 now and a team that actually didn't make my top 25, probably should have. But as I told you in the post spring top 25 episode, by the way, go back and watch that. Subscribe to the program and you're going to get all of that content.

Go back and watch that post spring top 25 because that's going to, I think, illuminate this off season and all of this content that you're getting during the course of the off season. We're developing all of these. episodes for Mondays throughout the offseason. And a lot of it has to do with things that we've already done. We're building into the season. Go subscribe to the YouTube channel.

Go back and watch Post Spring Top 25. You didn't find Louisville in there, but they're number five on this list. And what I said during the course of that episode is that I felt like there were a lot of teams from about 18 to 30 that could have been included. Louisville was certainly one of them. Now, I didn't include them. Should I have? Probably Jeff Brom, nine plus wins in all three.

seasons at Louisville. He's got an excellent head coach and an excellent track record. He went to a big 10 championship game with Purdue. Bromkin coach, there's no doubt about it. They're going to be five on this list because out of the ACC, you've got Miami and then who? Miami and who else at this point is going to be strong in the ACC. Might be Louisville. And if you're in that game and you can get yourself to that game and have a strong record, maybe you get two in from the ACC. Now, out of the ACC, check out this. Miami, Clemson and SMU, they've already gone and made 12 team appearances. So where does that leave us?

I think SMU is a real contender this year. They were in my post-spring top 25. They're going to contend for the playoff. But of teams that have not gone to the 12-team playoff, Louisville is certainly at the top of that list. They beat Miami on the road. Three of their four losses were by three or less, including two in overtime. They're right there in every single game. That's kind of Brahms M.O.

they bring in Lincoln Keenholz from Ohio State. Well, that's a wait and see for me. He's an older player, but not experienced. And as you know, I tend typically to lean towards experience. He can rely, though, on his star running back, Isaac Brown, banged up a little bit last year, but has been awesome in his two years in college, 100 yards and 11 of his 22 career games and over 7.5 yards per carry. So Isaac Brown is a good player.

They've got 33 transfers coming in. They hit the portal for wide receivers, Vandy's leading receiver from last year, Trey Richardson. They brought in a tight end out of the portal. Brody Foley from Tulsa. He's got over 500 yards and seven touchdowns last year. They've got a really good returning defensive end. Cleve Lubin, he's their best player on defense. He was all ACC, eight and a half sacks, 13 and a half tackles for lost.

And then you look at the schedule, an opportunity against Ole Miss on the Sunday to open the year. But it's not about whether they beat Ole Miss or not. and it's technically not about their overall record. It's about getting to the ACC championship game where you've got a shot in one game to potentially win a championship and go to the playoff. Presumably, even if they lose to Ole Miss, you look at their ACC schedule,

they don't have to play Miami, they don't have to play Clemson, they don't have to play Virginia, and they don't have to play Virginia Tech. So to me, they won the ACCC schedule lottery. They get SMU, Florida State, and Pitt, all at home, and their road games, NC State, Georgia Tech. Those are the toughest ones.

Yeah, I like Louisville. Again, in hindsight, should I have put them in the top 25? Based on this, they're probably going to end up in the top 25. And if they just play well and win the games that they should, there's a really good chance that they're playing for a title in Charlotte in the ACC title game. And you know, you've got 60 minutes to potentially go. And by the way, if they were to somehow beat Ole Miss

and be a team that only had two losses, let's say they lose the conference championship game and they're 11 and 2, they would go. Even at 10 and 3 being in that game, they were probably ranked inside. That would be a question. So again, big game there to start in Ole Miss. All right, number four.

Number four on my list. And I know you're going to be like, well, Joel, they're not eligible. Yeah, they are. They are because they have not made the playoff in each of the last two years. Michigan, Michigan at four. They would be my number four team most likely to make their first 12 team bracket.

Again, yes, they've made the playoff. Not under Kyle Whittingham, but they've made the playoff. They went and they won a national championship and not so, you know, right before the 12 team playoff, what, three years ago. But they've missed the CFP each of the last two years. And obviously a lot of turmoil led to Kyle Whittingham coming in as their head coach. I think he's a perfect fit at Michigan. I think that the relationship between and the, you know, and again, go back and listen to all these episodes.

I did a one big question about my top 12 from the post spring, and I talked about Michigan's big question, being Bryce Underwood and the marriage that he has, the relationship he has, and the offense that they have under Jason Beck, their new offensive coordinator. If you, there's a lot of really great information about Beck specifically in that episode. if you would like, go back in the YouTube annals, if you will, and check out that episode. Again, that's the biggest question surrounding the 12 teams in my top 12 of the post-spring top 25, and I talked about that marriage between Beck and Underwood.

Let's say that it works out, okay? So let's say that big question is answered positively, and Michigan's got an offense that's humming, and they're Michigan again. Well, guess what? Here's the tough part. Their schedule is brutal this year. Now, I do think it's one of those schedules. And we saw a couple of these last year, in particular out of the SEC, schedules like Oklahoma, which was a brutal schedule last year.

And I think this is one of those for Michigan. They've got to play Oklahoma. They've got a host Iowa. They've got a host Penn State. They've got to host Indiana. They've got to go to Oregon. They've got to go to Ohio State. It's a ridiculously difficult schedule.

There's no doubt. I do think it's one of those schedules. that because they're willing to play and hang on to one of these really tough, marquee non-conference games, there is a chance that Michigan would get consideration, if not love, at the end of the season, even as a 9 and 3. I think that that's available. I thought that was available for Oklahoma last year. Didn't need it.

They got into the playoff anyways. But this is one of those schedules where even if they were to, let's say, lose to Oklahoma early, that's a game that, listen, last year you remember, everyone was trying to, to wash over Texas's loss to Ohio State because they were willing to play that game. I don't disagree with that. I really don't. So what do they have to do? I don't think they have to get to the Big Ten championship game.

I don't think they have to get to 10 and two, although it would be a lot better for them if they did. There's no doubt. Facing Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State is difficult. When you throw in that you've got to also play Penn State, Iowa, and Oklahoma, really difficult. They only have two road games in their first nine. I think they need to take care of their home schedule. And if they're able to do that, here's the scenario. Here's the scenario. Can you get yourself in a position with that schedule where you're facing Ohio State with the right to go? I think that would be a huge win for Michigan. And if you were to be in that situation,

where you were being debated, you were almost there, and if you were to beat Ohio State, you would probably go at that point. So that's their path. It's not like the Big 12 or even Louisville and the ACC where I think that you have to get to the conference championship game. I don't think that's the case for Michigan. I think with that schedule, you know,

they're going to get considered at 9 and 3, and they almost are a lock at 10 and 2, almost a lock. By the way, if they go 10 and 2 and one of those losses, is Oklahoma, and they only have one Big Ten loss, they're going to the Big Ten championship game, and then they're almost a lock. Let's say they have a win over Oklahoma, lose two in that schedule in the Big Ten,

whether it's Indiana or Oregon or Ohio State, that means that if they only had two losses at that point, that they would have a win over one of those three. They would go. They would absolutely go. That's why they're at number four. All right, moving on. Number three, another Big Ten team and a team that I'm bullish on.

Again, please go back and listen to the top 25. the biggest question episode surrounding the top 12 in that 25 because I talked that length about USC. And I think USC, I'm bullish on USC. They have not made a playoff. And I think this is a team that could absolutely make a playoff run this year. I think Lincoln finally has the team that can play requisite football at the line of scrimmage. I talked a lot about that in the question episode surrounding the top 12 teams in my top 25. Please go back and listen to that and subscribe to the YouTube. They showed me signs last year. I thought the game against Michigan, the game against Iowa, those were tough, hard-nosed wins. By the way, happened at the Coliseum. That's a key point

in this discussion when you're talking about a potential playoff run because they were quietly one of the best teams in the country at home. They were 7 and 0 last year in the Coliseum. And now this year they get Oregon, Washington, and Ohio State at home. Those teams, a couple of them, at least, or excuse me, in Ohio State's case, they've got to travel all the way out here, we've seen that that's difficult for teams. Indiana is the only team that has been able to really say like, yeah, you know what, it doesn't bother us. Remember, Michigan went to Washington lost.

Michigan went to USC and lost. These trips are difficult. And I don't think Penn State goes to UCLA and loses. That's a game that no one saw coming in the Rose Bowl a year ago, led to James Franklin's firing. So the fact that Ohio State has to go out west, I think that that's going to be tough. That's just a game that you can just kind of circle and you're like,

oh, okay. Well, that's interesting then. That's interesting. They've got Washington at home. They've got Oregon at home. I think that they're going to start 4 and 0, no problem. Then they have a really tough five-game stretch over the next six. And for me, you're looking at this and it's like, can you go 3 and 2?

Can you go 3 and 2? I think USC can go 3 and 2. in this stretch and get to 10 wins. Now, if they do that, that would mean that they're going to have to have a win at home against Oregon, at home against Ohio State or on the road against Indiana. If they do that, they're going to be in and they would certainly be a team that I would expect to beat Washington and even win at Penn State in a game that they don't historically play well in, which is traveling back east.

You think about all those Notre Dame games, I would think that they would have an opportunity to do that. the Ohio State game on Halloween with one loss, if you can get there with one loss, let's say you just lose to Oregon, you beat Washington, you beat Penn State, and you're sitting there with one loss against Ohio State at home, now you got a real shot. You got a real shot. The only tricky part with USC, as you know, is they've got that potentially tricky matchup rivalry game with USC to finish the season.

You wouldn't want that to like trip you up completely. All right, number two on the list. Number two is going to be BYU. BYU was oh so close a year ago. They were in that Big 12 championship game and came up just a little bit short. Now, they came up short because of their offense. They couldn't do anything against that tech defense. I don't know if tech's defense is going to be nearly what they were a year ago.

Remember, they lost David Bailey. They lost Ramello Heights. They lost Jacob Rodriguez and others. And Lee Hunter in the middle of that defensive line. And so it's not nearly going to be as Domelo. of a year, both losses last year for Kalani Sataki and BYU were to Texas Tech. Texas Tech was very good, and BYU was 12 and 2. I had BYU lower than both Michigan and USC in my post-spring top 25, but it's easier

to see them reach the Big 12 championship game than to see those other teams get to that point in the season like I was telling you late in the year where they're in a position to potentially win and go against Oregon or Ohio State and Indiana. Okay, so that's why they're higher than those teams. Now, I think BYU should be in the Big 12 championship game. They're too consistent in the program. They've got their quarterback back. I love this program.

Are there questions about some of their program? Yeah, yeah, there's questions. Go back and listen to that episode, in particular on the outside, some wide receivers. Where are they going to get that? I think Bear Bokbire is a heck of a player. L.J. Martin, they're going to need to lead this offense. It's going to be likely a ground-based offense. They get three starters back in the secondary.

should be one of the best defenses in the Big 12. Now, they do have to replace their coordinator, Jay Hill. He left BYU to go back with an old mentor of his, Kyle Whittingham, and he's now the defensive coordinator at Michigan. They got a big portal addition in the linebacker, Cade Ulu AVE. And he comes in from Cal. He was a first team, all-ACC player a year ago. He's a good player.

That defense should be very good. Their toughest games are all spaced out. They've got Arizona early. They've got to go to TCU. Their toughest game by far. is going to be home to Notre Dame. Again, that doesn't impact what they do getting into the Big 12 title game.

They've got to host Arizona State. Then they're at Utah. I think at Utah is obviously their toughest road game. And that's a manageable schedule. A very manageable schedule for BYU. And this is a team that I think should absolutely be competing for another Big 12 title and an opportunity to go to the college football playoff.

And that leads us to our number one team that is most likely to make the playoff. And frankly, if they don't, I'm going to be very surprised, very surprised. And that is LSU, have not been to the playoff in the last two years, have not been to a 12-team playoff. Obviously, they were in the 4-team playoff. By the way, isn't it shocking?

That's the only college football playoff that LSU has been to. The Joe Burrow year. That when I was digging through these numbers, I was like, oh, that's right. That's shocking. That's why Lane Kiffin is there. It's so surprising to me that they've, only had one playoff year dating all the way back to what was that? 14 when Ohio State beat Oregon

in the first 14 playoff. Kiffin's got 10 plus wins in four of his final seasons at Ole Miss. This guy can coach. He can coach. Now, he's better on the offensive side. We know that. But Ole Miss two years ago played great defense. And Blake Baker is still there at LSU to handle the defense. I like that. With seven different SEC teams already having a birth in the 12-team format over the last two years. This is absolutely the no-brainer of no-brainers. This team screams playoff this year. Now, I looked at teams like Florida,

and I'm like, ah, I don't know if I can do that. The only reason there's not more SEC teams on this list is because they've all made the 12-team format. You're looking at Tennessee made it, Ole Miss made it, A&M made it. You know, they've had these seven, Bama made it, Georgia made it. They've got all of these teams that have already been there.

so I couldn't select them for this list. This is the most obvious choice. The schedule is not going to be bad for a nine-game SEC schedule. I think they'll be fired up and ready to go when they play Clemson week one. That game is in Tiger Stadium. They won a year ago, even in their poor year. Now they're going to get them at home in Kiffin's first game. Yes, sign me up in particular with Clemson and their indecision.

I shouldn't say indecision. Their undecided quarterback race. Now, here's going to be a difficult one. and I don't think it's just because you're going to have to face Trinidad Chamblis. When they go to Ole Miss, that place is going to be bonkers. Can you even imagine what that place is going to be like when Lane walks back in after he left them last year before the college football playoff? Do you think that they forgave him just because Chambliss led them to a semi-final birth? I don't think so.

I don't think so. And then you look at the rest of the SEC schedule. And again, for SEC standards, this is the deepest conference in the coach. country, it's not awful. They're at home against A&M. They're at home against Bama. They're at home against Texas. And their tough game is at Tennessee. I like playing Texas and Texas A&M at home. And listen, I think Leavitt is a really good player. I think it's going to be a team that is very good. I think that they can be better on defense. They're certainly going to be better on offense. And I'm going to be surprised if LSU is not a 10-win team. I see 10 wins all day long.

I think they beat Clemson. I think they win at Ole Miss for some reason. Maybe I'm crazy. I think that maybe they stumble, you know, I don't know what, at Tennessee, maybe even Texas at home. But this is a 10-win schedule as SEC schedules go. So LSU for me is my number one team that I would be looking at to make a 12-team playoff after having not made either of the last two 12-team playoffs.

A couple of just quick honorable mentions here. Just two teams to keep your eye on. If you're looking for like a 2024 Indiana-style run, then look at UCLA and Oklahoma State. Those are interesting, interesting. I didn't include them in the top 10, but interesting. You both have, in both scenarios, you've got the exact recipe that works for Indiana. Signetti going from JMU, bringing all of his guys up there

and implementing a culture at a place like Indiana that hadn't had a lot of lot of success really ever, but then certainly has had that in the last two years. Each of the other two programs I'm speaking of, UCLA and Oklahoma State, have had more success in their history than Indiana did before Signetig out there. So now you've got the North Texas connections at Oklahoma State. You've got the Chesney connections there at UCLA. And in a UCLA's case, you've got a good quarterback. And by the way, their schedule is not terrible for Big Ten standards.

So just a couple of teams to watch out for if you're just trying to throw a, like, lob or just a long shot out there for what's a team that could come out of nowhere and make a playoff run? Just peak at UCLA and Oklahoma State. If you're looking for group of six teams that have not been to the playoff, shoot, I'm looking at teams like Navy. I think Navy is going to have a shot to do that. App State potentially could be a team to do that. Maybe Toledo, those types of teams. So look at those teams as well, have not made playoff appearances in their history and maybe they can get themselves into a position to play games late in the season and get themselves into the playoff.

I really appreciate you being around for all this offseason content. We'll have more an episode. Of course, next Monday. We'll be back here with you right here with the Joel Clatchio. Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel. Hit the notification button. You're going to know when everything drops. If you haven't followed us on social media, go ahead and do that.

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