The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - The Playoff Committee is heading for a trap + a Chaos Scenario for Rivalry Week

Episode Date: November 26, 2025

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt reacts to the latest College Football Playoff rankings where he breaks down the Committee’s decisions and why they may be inadvertently walking into a trap that could damage the future of the sport. He then lays out a potential chaos situation this weekend that would create an even greater logjam on the bubble of the 12-team Playoff. He discusses Notre Dame’s continued ranking over Alabama inside the Top 10 as Miami inches closer to them this week. He also explains why Michigan’s ranking at #15 at the back of the pack of 2-losses bubble teams is sending a problematic signal for future non-conference scheduling. Klatt also discusses how he thinks the Lane Kiffin situation will play out in the coming week and how the Committee will handle his potential departure when evaluating Ole Miss. 0:00- 1:50 Intro1:51-4:41 Initial reactions to Nov. 25 CFP rankings4:42-9:32 What results this weekend would cause the most chaos for the committee?9:33-12:36 Should Michigan be higher than #15?12:37-19:52 Should Notre Dame be ranked above Alabama?19:53-22:59 The dangers of a committee-based selection process for the CFP23:00-26:45 What should the committee do if Lane Kiffin decides to leave for another job? Use my code for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/KLATT10 Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $20 discount Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This is a full chaos grenade. Michigan win, Texas win, Oregon loses to Washington, Miami beats Pitt, Vandy beats Tennessee. I kind of love this, guys. Like, I kind of love this. Like, can we stop with the 6-7 stuff? Once it hits the mid-50-year-old in a suit on a college football playoff committee show, bam, nail in the coffin. Day like today is why we love college football. Hey, welcome into the program, everybody.

This is a Joel Clad show. I am Joel Clad. This show is brought to you by Graduate by Hilton. We thank them for their support as we are barreling towards this incredible game on Saturday. Michigan, Ohio State. We're going to be live in Ann Arbor. Big Noon Saturday will be there. Gus Jeannie and I will have the call. Big Noon kickoff is going to be live. Three-hour edition starting at 9 a.m. Eastern. Lots of guests. Lots of guests. We're going to have grunk there. I believe Derek Jeter is possibly going to make an appearance. So I don't want to promise anything. But the show is going to be amazing. That's all coming up Saturday as we get you set for the game, Michigan, hosting the number one team of the country, Ohio State.

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You can follow us at Joel Clatch Show. Lots to get into another. rankings release Tuesday night here as we're recording. You'll listen to this on Wednesday. So we need to react to some of these playoff rankings. There was not a ton of movement in these playoff rankings, but I do think there were some interesting little nuggets that I'm going to try to share with you here tonight. I do think that the committee is setting themselves a bit of a trap. And we'll get into that here later. And they also need to start honoring some things that we talk about in college football a lot more that a little bit. Let me give you some of the quick observations as we drop in the full top 25 now,

and rather than go all the way through it, I will say this, kudos to Arizona. Nice pop in there number 25 in the country. Well done. Wildcats have done a nice job. They're getting into the top 25 pit after that big win over Georgia Tech. They jump in there. SMU is at 21. Arizona State is in there at 20. They had a nice win. Tennessee is still sitting there. That's a dangerous team hosting number 14 Vandy this weekend. That's going to be a good one. SC after the loss falls down a little bit. Texas jumps, them at 16. Michigan moves up three spots to 15. Utah at 13. Miami at 12. That's a big one because they're inching up closer to that 10 spot, which is an important line of demarcation for where we think you've got to

be in, obviously, with a group of five being included, with an ACC champion being included. You really need to be inside of the top 10. And the team holding that down, Alabama and number 10, Notre Dame is at nine, so now only three spots separate them and a team that they lost to on the football field. The Miami Hurricanes, more on that in a little bit. OU at 8, Ole Miss at 7 because Oregon jumped up. Now, they're number six after the big win over USC, and the top five did not change. Ohio State, Indiana, Texas, A&M, Georgia, and Texas Tech. So there's how we are looking at this.

And I'll be honest, when they first came out, I think you had to look at it a few times to really get some thoughts about this because not a ton changed. You know, first blush, you're like, oh, okay, Oregon moved up. That makes sense. And yeah, okay, you know, Michigan moved up a little bit. I mean, Miami moved up a little bit. Are they being more directly compared to Notre Dame? You know, more on that a little bit.

But I do think it's fascinating if you just scratch a little bit deeper under the surface, there is a ton going on, a ton going on in these rankings. Let's go through it. Okay, and the first thing is the potential for mass chaos. And I'm talking about like mass chaos. All right. Full chaos would mean this. This weekend, the end of the regular season in college football,

the committee's sitting there and they watch Michigan win, Texas win, Oregon loses to Washington, on the road, Miami beats Pitt, Vandy beats Tennessee. That's it. Five results that throw this thing into mass chaos. It's like, again, you know, I talked about Pat and Arduzzi, you know, throwing a distraction grenade into his locker room before that, or an excuse grenade before the Notre Dame game.

Now, granted, jokes on all of us because they lined up. in an ACC game, which obviously means something to them and went in there and beat Haynes King on senior night at Georgia Tech. But this is a full chaos grenade if these five results happen. And I'll mention them again. Michigan beats Ohio State. Texas beats Texas A&M. Washington beats Oregon. Miami beats Pitt. Vandy beats Tennessee. Listen, that's not outlandish now, these five results. It really isn't. And yet it would create just a logjam of epic proportions at the end of these rankings.

Basically, this is what it would mean. All right, you would sit there and you would look at, you know, let's just assume like OU, Notre Dame, Bama, they would win. They're inside of the top 10. So as 10 and 2s, they would remain in the top 10. All right. So let's just put them there for a moment. And then you would have basically one spot, one spot, one spot, available, six teams. I kind of love this, guys. Like, I kind of love this.

You would have Oregon, Miami, Utah, Vandy, Michigan, all 10 and 2, and Texas with a win over A&M at 9 and 3. I mean, what do you do then if you're this committee? What do you do? Because, again, there are just too many teams for one spot, one spot. You'd have to kind of start going down this line of like, okay, how do you eliminate teams at that moment? All right. So if we get full chaos here and we've got these six teams, Oregon, Miami, Utah, Vandy, Michigan, all 10 and two, Texas, nine and three. All right, the first thing that you would have to do is like, well, how do you just eliminate one or two of these teams?

So I would look at like, well, you've got nine and three Texas. Don't love it. They've got those, you know, I'll say it gross wins against Kentucky and Mississippi State. I think that they would probably be one of the first teams eliminated of those six. Maybe, maybe. You've also got two of the worst losses of those six teams would be Miami, actually, with the Louisville loss and the SMU loss on the road. So I think that you can start to remember.

move those two pretty quickly in that scenario. Utah has pretty clearly had a ceiling over them, so I think they would probably be the next one eliminated. Then you've got like some sort of Oregon, Utah, you've got, well, excuse me, Oregon, Vandy, you've got Michigan. And I think Vandy with their ceiling and the big wins that they would have with Michigan right behind them, I think it would come down to basically Oregon sliding, Michigan raising up. Remember, this would be a potential win over the number one team of the country. And you would basically have like an Oregon-Michigan debate at number 10. I think that's what would happen in a full chaos mode.

And again, you know, we'll see. Almost certainly we won't get this exact result. But if those five things happen, which is not out of the realm of possibility, we would be in full chaos mode, and I think it would probably come down to Oregon and Michigan at that point. Now, Michigan would have the single best win of any team in the country. Oregon would have a win over USC who beat Michigan, but Michigan would have a win over Washington,

who would, in this case, in this scenario, would have just beaten Oregon. So it would get messy. There's no doubt Miami would be, you know, they would be throwing things around saying Notre Dame is in there, and we need to be included. It would be such a fascinating experiment. And one of the things that I'm looking at here, and in particular with Michigan at 15,

this idea that Michigan has to jump up so many spots and maybe a win over the number one team in the country could do that. But I do find it fascinating that the committee has not, I don't think, put into proper context when one of their losses occurred and where it occurred, more specifically. Because we've talked at length on this program, and rightly so because I think it's, important in college football, that the committee has to take into consideration these non-conference

games that are scheduled willingly that remain on the schedule. The teams don't buy out of. Because if Michigan were to beat Ohio State and if Michigan were to be right on the bubble, then the committee would be talking to everybody. They would be communicating to everybody across the sport about the schedule. Michigan scheduled Oklahoma didn't buy out of the game, went down there, played them on the road with a true freshman quarterback, and lost. And then ended up getting on a win streak. And in this scenario, with a win over the number one team in the country,

they would be sitting there and thinking to themselves like, hey, you're telling us if we don't go to the playoff that we should have scheduled southeastern Missouri state. that's what the committee would be telling them. And that's not what we want the committee be telling anybody. We want them to value non-conference games, in particular big ones that we want to see between two blue bloods. That's what we want to see. Every college football fan wants those games to be a premium.

So Michigan at 9 and 2 sitting here with their matchup over Ohio State, their losses are against Oklahoma and SC, their strength of schedule is 37th. They do not have a win over a CFP top 25 team as of yet. They're 0-2 at this point. But just remember, if they were to beat Ohio State, the clear number one team in the country, and they would be on the bubble at that point, I do think that you've got to at least take into consideration what message you're sending the rest of college football if they're not included in that playoff. Because, again, you'd be telling them, we would have rather seen you at 11 and 1 and play a patsy

rather than 10 and 2 and play a blue blood on the road. Just something to chew on. Just something to chew on. And I doubt that this committee has really talked about this. What's up, Klaz Show fans? If you're looking for something fun to do or a great holiday gift idea for your friends and family,

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about it before on the program, this committee very clearly values the I test. And it is abundantly clear. with this ranking of Notre Dame. And they're valuing of Notre Dame. So Notre Dame is at number nine, and they are one spot above Alabama, then BYU at 11 and the Miami at 12. Okay, and so let me start by saying, like,

I don't disagree with the ranking. And I'm not saying that the committee is wrong, but this committee is, using the I test over the resume. Now, they're pretty consistent with it. They've done it throughout these rankings. You can make a strong argument that Ohio State's resume is not Indiana's resume. Indiana has a win at Oregon, the number one, number six team in the country.

Right. So I think that we understand that. A&M has a win at Notre Dame, a top 10 team of the country. Ohio State doesn't have that win. Now, they have a win over Texas, which is number 16. but, you know, that's their best win. And you look up and you can clearly see that the committee is valuing what they see on film. They're valuing what the coaches in the room are saying because they value eye test over resume.

I think it's more evident at the 9-10 spot because Notre Dame's resume is not in the same hemisphere as Alabama's resume. If you're ranking on resumes, you are absolutely ranking Alabama ahead of Notre Dame. Okay? Alabama has the ninth toughest strength of schedule in the country, and they're three and one against this committee's top 25. Three and one. Their losses are against OU and, of course, all the way back in week one against Florida State, which is, again, one of those non-conference games I was talking about that you would want to try to encourage moving forward if you were the committee. Now, to be fair, it's tough to make that argument against Notre Dame because they're an independent.

They're always going to play these style of games. And obviously, the ACC kind of scheduling agreement game with Miami and then an out-of-conference game with Texas A&M. But the strength of schedule is not close. And Notre Dame lost the two toughest games that they've played. The two best opponents that Notre Dame has seen they've lost to. And Alabama has a win over Georgia. On the road, they snapped the longest home winning streak. in college football earlier this year when they were able to beat the Georgia Bulldogs in Athens.

So the resume is not close. If you're going by resume, which previous committees have done, by the way, and they have spurred the eye test, then Alabama would be over Notre Dame. But this committee wants to value Notre Dame. And I don't necessarily, I'm not disagreeing with this because if you said to me, hey, Joel, neutral site, who wins next weekend, Alabama or Notre Dame? I would pick Notre Dame. And so the committee, I think, is using that as maybe the last resort.

It's the neutral side argument. Who do you pick in a game this weekend? Probably Notre Dame. I'd pick them over Oklahoma, by the way, who's ranked one spot ahead of them. I would pick them over BYU. I would pick them over Miami. And I know that they lost to Miami earlier in the year. So I'm well aware of that.

And so I want to give the committee at least that defense is that I almost agree with what you're doing. But it does come with a bit of consequence. And that's the hard part. The hard part here is that this committee is walking themselves into a trap. And there are consequences for what they're doing. And if we just look at this, we can see that, one, Alabama vastly superior as it relates to resume, three spots away is a team that they lost two head to head. And by their own admission, those teams were now in the cohort that was being evaluated against one another. And that still didn't carry the day.

They come out here and tell us, and by the way, oh my gosh. Guys, guys, guys, if, like, can we stop with the six, seven stuff? Like, what are, please stop, please stop. please die. It's not funny. Like as soon as it's like everything, it's like every single fad that has ever started with the youth and in the younger generations, once it hits the mid-50-year-old in a suit on a college football playoff committee show, and it has like six, I'm like, yep, there it is. Bam, nail in the coffin. Wow. Okay. That was just a small rant. Didn't realize I was going to go there, but like, that's it, right? Can we be done now? That was it.

It had to be. That was the sound of just like the last haymaker on a dead horse. Just thud. Just gross. Sounds like a water balloon filled with miracle whip dropped from a three-story building. It's done. It's done. And hopefully we never get to, we never have to hear it again. That would be amazing. That would be amazing. Okay, so three spots away is by the committee's own admission, a team in Miami, who's being now included in the cohort that is being evaluated against one another and yet still head to head is not carrying the day. See, guys, like that could be problematic. Now, you can tell me this weekend you would pick Notre Dame to win the game. That's fine, but you do still have to honor the games that have been played. you know, to some extent, you've got to look up and you've got to honor what the players do on the field.

You've got to do that. And Miami now is sitting there, and I get it. Their resume isn't quite what Notre Dame's is, and their losses are not great. SMU and Louisville. I totally understand that. And there was a section of this year where they weren't playing very well. But then now they are playing well. And they tried to rattle off some statistics about Carson Beck's completion percentage in the last few weeks.

I'm like, guys, if we're trying to get into the playoff by our quarterback's completion percentage, then like we're doing it wrong. Then we're probably doing it wrong. This is a problem. This is a problem now because games that get played need to be honored. I've been consistent about that. And I can still, I would still be the first one to say, Joel, if you had to make a pick, Notre Dame, Miami, this week, I would pick Notre Dame.

It's not a great spot to be in if you're the committee, but they are putting themselves in a corner where not honoring head-to-head is a problem. That's a problem, and it's a problem for the future of college football. And by the way, they're also walking into this trap of devaluing non-conference matchups. You see, like, this is also a problem. because Michigan at 15 is basically at the bottom of all the two loss teams, basically, because the three loss teams are right behind them, Texas and USC. By the way, USC beat Michigan, but they're not, you know, I mean, we see what's going on here.

Okay, so now you've got all these two lost teams. You've got OU at two losses, Notre Dame at two losses, Bama at two losses, Miami at two losses, Utah, Vandy, Michigan. And yet Michigan is sitting at the back of that group. Okay. Well, that's a bit problematic because of the loss that they had. And I just touched on this. If we want to encourage Blue Bloods to keep these games on the schedule and encourage them to schedule more of these non-conference games,

we cannot bring the hammer down on them in the playoff committee room. We just can't. This is one of those things where I understand that this entire system is broken. I get it. And there is no perfect answer here. And this is not even that like this committee is doing a terrible job. It's just that they're tasked with an impossible task to some degree. But what I'm seeing here is that you're telling Michigan that they would have been better off scheduling a Patsy.

You know, they should have gone out and scheduled, you know, I mean, an FCS team, like anybody that can just, Abilene Christian rolls up into the big house. And now Michigan would be 10 and 1. And they wouldn't be in this predicament. And that's where the committee has to be careful. You know, I've talked about this at length during the course of the season. And this is part of the problem with a playoff that uses at large. spots and this mini at large spots. You see, when you have a selection-based playoff, this is what you get. And you will devalue head-to-head. You will devalue non-conference

scheduling and aggressive non-conference scheduling. And we don't want to do that in college football, which is why I've argued vehemently that we need an access-based playoff. Now, I don't know where they're at in all of this, you know, change and how many teams are going to be included and so and so forth, I would just tell you that an access-based model is far superior, far superior to a selection-based model because of all the problems that we've just talked about here today. You can't do it right when it's a selection-based model. You can't. If we're telling teams to schedule Abilene Christian and Southeast, you know, Southeast Missouri State, then that's a problem. And we don't want that as college football fans. One of the last things I wanted to touch on here is this

Lane Kiffin effect. It looks like there's not going to be a Lane Kiffin impact on Ole Miss, at least based on what the committee told us. They said that they wouldn't have a data point with Ole Miss playing without Lane. Like let's just say sake of argument, which, by the way, I believe Lane will leave and is going to leave. And I do think that he's going to be taking the LSU job. But if and when he does that and the committee has to run.

Frank Ole Miss, they will not have seen Ole Miss play without Lane Kiffin. See, that's where it's going to be a lot different than a couple of years ago when Florida State played a couple of times without Jordan Travis after he got injured. And they were pretty clearly not themselves. Now, I'm not defending what the committee did. I'm just pointing out that's going to be their excuse. That's what they're going to fall back on is they're going to say, listen, we got to see Florida State without Jordan Travis.

We will have not seen Ole Miss without Lane Kiffin. But I do believe that they're going to be put into that predicament. I think that he's probably going to take that LSU job after the Egg Bowl. And that's a problem. That's a problem. Because again, go back to Monday's episode. I talked at length about college football coaches, their credibility and how their credibility is their currency when they stand in front of their teams.

I'd love for you to go back and check that out. Because, you know, Lane, if he does this, is going to lose a lot of credibility. in front of his teams. It doesn't matter if he loses credibility for guys like me. You know, like I really like Lane, and I'm sure he's going to have a lot of different reasons for making the decisions that he's going to make, maybe their family decisions, and that's fine.

You know, and he's a big, he's a grown-up, he's a big boy, and he can make those decisions. But as a coach, in front of another group of men that he's trying to get to commit to something that's bigger than themselves, you lose a bit of credibility. And that's obvious. that's obvious and certainly problematic. And I hope that this is going to be used to create some change in the calendar so that we don't subject future players to this.

I don't care about the coaches in all of this. They've had agency and movement forever. And they've made tough decisions and some of them have left places in the lurch and others have done it different ways. coaches are going to come and go and they're going to move around. But the players are the ones that I know that they have more agency and movement now, but they're the ones that are committing to these places and they're committing to these coaches. So in order to protect those players with a better calendar, hopefully this is going to be the linchpin in order to make some of those changes to the calendar

that are desperately needed in college football. I didn't think it was going to turn into a rant about the playoff structure or about Lane again. That was, didn't think it was going to go that direction tonight. But there's your college football playoff rankings reaction episode. Now, I can't wait for this weekend. I think this weekend's game is going to be epic. I also think the games around the country are going to be fantastic. Make sure you subscribe to the show.

I'm going to have a big picks and previews episode. Trust me, it'll be beefy. It'll be really good. So subscribe to the YouTube channel, comment below, hit the notification. More importantly, invite a friend. Follow us on social media at Joel Clatio. You can rate and review us wherever you're listening to your podcast. I would really appreciate that. So come and join us tomorrow and then enjoy the games on Saturday. Thank you for listening, everybody. Have a great night.