The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Week 3 College Football Picks: Georgia-Tennessee, Notre Dame-Texas A&M and more!

Episode Date: September 11, 2025

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt makes his picks for the biggest games of the weekend. He previews his game on Big Noon Saturday as #4 Oregon looks to continue their impressive start at Northwestern. Klatt breaks down the huge game in Knoxville as Kirby Smart and #6 Georgia look to continue his dominance over #15 Tennessee and then makes his pick as #8 Notre Dame faces a must-win game when it hosts #16 Texas A&M. He also previews the USF-Miami matchup as South Florida looks to pull off it’s 3rd straight upset to start the season. Klatt then considers if Florida is due to bounce back when they travel to Death Valley to face #3 LSU and he makes his pick as #12 Clemson looks to avoid the upset in a tricky trip to Georgia Tech. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Their defense is a defense that I think can go and actually lead the country in defense. And that's what you need to win the national championship. Tennessee is maybe better than we thought, and there are a lot of questions surrounding Georgia. This is a must win for Notre Dame. Florida, gosh, guys, I didn't like what I saw. A day like today is why we love college football. Hey, welcome into the program, everybody. This is the Joel Klaas show.

I am Joel Kla. This show is brought to you by graduate by Hilton. We thank them for their support. Love staying in graduates. A lot of different college towns that they are in, and it is a terrific experience to do that. So make sure that you go and stay at one of those graduates in a college town near you.

Lots to get into today. Before we get into all the picks and previews, why don't we go ahead and make sure that we go out to the YouTube channel and subscribe to the show. You can hit that notification button, and then you will have all of our content right when it drops right there on YouTube, and then you can follow us on social media as well.

Well, week three picks and previews. Now, the game that I will be at is at Northwestern as Oregon goes on the road to take on Northwestern. Big Noon Saturday, Gus Ginny and I will be there. Big Noon kickoff will be there right next to the lake. And we'll be getting it going. I am really excited to see this Oregon team. Northwestern as well. I don't want to downplay it too much.

But I will just tell you, if you listened to the Wednesday edition of the Joel Clash show, you will know that I am very bullish. on Oregon. After watching them on film and preparing for this game, they certainly look the part of a team that can go and win the national championship. They are going to start Big Ten play this week after that 69-3 win over Oklahoma State. It was just an absolute show, boat race last week against the Cowboys. Their offense was tremendous. Love their quarterback, Dante Moore, cannot wait to see more of him. In fact, if you look at the way Dante Moore has started this season, season. He's been on the field for the Ducks 15 drives, 13 touchdowns in those 15 drives,

a field goal and one turnover on downs. He's been accurate with the football. He's got elite arm talent, and I can't wait to watch him play. What I may be more impressed with with Oregon, though, is how they're built defensively. Their defense is a defense that I think can go and actually lead the country in defense. And that's what you need to win the national championship. The last four national champions, let's not forget. I talk about this all the time on the program. Georgia, number one defense. Georgia, number three defense, Michigan, number one defense, Ohio State, number one defense. You better be great on the defensive side. And Oregon is certainly built that way. They're great in the middle at defensive tackle with massive human beings in the

middle. They've got speed on the outside. They've got a really quality secondary. And this is certainly a team that I think can go and win the national championship. Northwestern lost their opener at Tulane. They won it last week. They've got SMU transfer Preston Stone at quarterback. So we'll see how they play this week on big noon Saturday. All right. So let's move to the monster in the SEC as Georgia's going to go on the road and take on Tennessee. That line has gone all the way down to three and a half. Started higher than that. Now it's only three and a half. Georgia is favored. So a lot of sentiment, money coming in on Tennessee. And listen, rightly so. With the way that we saw these teams play over the opening

couple of weeks suggests that Tennessee is maybe better than we thought. And there are a lot of questions surrounding Georgia, specifically the way their offense played against Austin P. FCS last week. Is that a concern? Yes. That's absolutely a concern. And there's been a big part of me all week that has wanted to kind of jump on the bandwagon and go with Tennessee. But the more that you think about this, you start breaking it into chunks. And let's start with the offensive line for Georgia. They're going to be more healthy and I believe more effective in this game. Now, the environment's going to be crazy. There's no doubt. And that does make it difficult on an offensive line to be really aggressive. But they were without their garden tackle last

week. It looks like they're going to get their tackle specifically green back at right tackle. And that was a particular area of weakness last week. So if that corrects itself, that's a huge, I think, momentum boost for Georgia as they're prepping for this game. So that's number one. Then you start looking at the quarterback. So let's look at these quarterbacks. It's always going to be a quarterback matchup, and both of these guys are going to be in an environment that is new for them. If you take Gunner Stockton, this is going to be his first real true road start,

or big road start. However, it's not his first big start because we saw him play when Beck got injured in the SEC championship game against Texas. We saw him start in the playoff game against Notre Dame. Those are huge moments, man, with the season on the line. So I'm less concerned that he, He's going on the road for the first time, although, as we know, because of crowd noise, operation of the offense becomes that much more difficult.

But at least he's seen it. He's felt it. He's been there before, and I don't think it's going to be a giant surprise to him. Joey Aguilar, on the other hand, for Tennessee, he's never played a game like this one. I'm really glad for him that this one's at home. If this one was on the road, that would be a huge step up for him because he's never seen a team like Georgia. He just hasn't. even all the experience that he has, he's never seen a team like Georgia.

And certainly this environment is going to feel big, but at least he's at home. So you've got some pluses and minuses for both of those quarterbacks. And then you start to look at the overall matchup. All right, when you look at Kirby Smart facing a Josh Hypoe team, it's been a lot of success for Kirby Smart. And Hypo has not been able to replicate the offense that the offensive explosiveness that he has against other teams when they play against Georgia. In fact, this is what the numbers bear out.

In the four meetings between Kirby and Heipel, Georgia has outscored Tennessee by 80 points. 80. That's substantial. Okay, so you've got to take that under consideration. You also look at the fact that Tennessee has never scored more than 17 against Georgia, even with some really, really good offenses and players. But why is that? Let's just step back for a moment and start talking about true matchup

and game plan and why is it that Georgia can play well against Tennessee? The obvious answer is that they've got better players. Okay, we know that. They've got better players than almost anybody in the country because they've recruited that way and they've built their roster that way. So the defensive side of the football for Georgia is always going to be loaded. Why is that specifically tough for Tennessee? Well, and I've been talking about this, you know, at length.

And again, I know Tennessee fans don't like it. But this offense that Tennessee utilizes can be very explosive. What they generally utilize, not all the time, but generally, is the fact that in the passing game, they're going to run read routes that are read by the wide receiver down the field. They're called choice routes, all right? And there's some combination, a lot of them, two receiver combinations, and the quarterback picks aside pre-snap and plays that combination.

So there's a tremendous amount of pressure and expectation that the quarterback and the wide receiver are going to see the same thing in coverage and react to the same way. because they have to be on the same page. Those read routes happen about between nine and 12 yards down the field. A lot of times the wide receiver is either going to be hooking and stopping on his route and then moving his way back towards the interior or towards the outside or if the defense is sitting, he takes off and goes deep.

It's one of the reasons why Tennessee has been such an explosive offense over the last couple of years is because those read routes, if the defense gets nosy at all, they can just run right by them. and they don't have to technically call a go route or a big play. The offense creates that through the read on the outside. Again, it's not all they do, but it's a big portion of what they do in the passing game. Well, the reason that's difficult against Georgia is pretty obvious. When you've got players on the other side that can defend in man,

the read becomes that much more difficult. In fact, the read is predicated on leverage and not defensive structure. So that becomes much more difficult for the wide receiver and the quarterback to be on the same The other thing that Georgia can do is they can play a bracket style of coverage. And so it's not a traditional zone coverage, like they're playing cover three or cover four or cover two. What they can do is they can play high, low on a player or a combination on one side of the field, which means regardless of choice that the wide receiver makes, he's wrong because

the bracket is high and low of that side of the field. Georgia is able to do that with their intricate secondary structure, and that's something that Kirby Smart does a really good job of. So that's the reason why Tennessee doesn't create the explosive plays against Georgia that they do against other teams. The pressure comes in and the pressure point then is like, can you run the football well? Because if you can run the football well, then it forces Georgia to declare the defense and then those reeds start to manifest themselves and clear themselves up on the outside.

Now, Georgia is uniquely equipped to deal with that from the defensive side. their offense, though, I've got questions about. I told you, throwing 34 times with your starting quarterback against an FCS opponent, I'm not a huge believer. I'm not a huge believer. I do believe that this is going to be a low-scoring affair. I think that it's going to be difficult on Tennessee, and because of the road environment, it's going to be difficult on Georgia.

I don't see either of these teams getting past 21. and if you just boil it all the way down with the history of what Georgia and Tennessee do against each other and the fact that Georgia's defense is uniquely built through both structure and talent with their personnel to stop an offense like Tennessee's. I wanted to take Tennessee in this game. I can't do it.

I can't do it. I've got to go with Georgia. And just think of this too. And I know that this is an intangible, but it's correct. Correct. One of these teams has been told how good they are for two weeks. That's Tennessee. The other team has Kirby Smart absolutely killing them this week after a poor performance and a win over Austin P. You are going to get, and I promise you this,

the absolutely most focused version, physical version, an intense version of Georgia that you can possibly get because of the week of practice that they just had under Kirby Smart. We know that. So I've got to go Georgia here. I wanted to take Tennessee. I can't take Tennessee. I can't do it. I do think it's going to be low scoring. I like Georgia, and I think that they cover the three and a half. I see a game like 2117. I think it could be close. I was tempted to take the points. I'm not going to do it. I'll take the Bulldogs. 2117, they get the win on the road at Tennessee. Great out-of-conference game here. Texas A&M travels to South Bend to take on Notre Dame. Notre Dame is favored by six and a half. I think this is a massive game for Notre Dame for a lot of reasons, but more specifically because

they lost to Miami. Without a ton on their schedule, as it relates to really high-end quality opponents that would be great resume builders, this is a must win for Notre Dame. I know it's early in the season, but if they're 10 and 2 and their losses are Miami and Texas A&M, I don't know what else is left on the schedule that get them to a point where they're winning arguments to get included into the college football playoff. So as it relates to the postseason, I really believe Notre Dame is under the gun here. They have to win this game. They're at home.

They're favored by six and a half. They've got to beat Texas A&M. They fall to O and 2, and I think their playoff hopes might be over. This is a night game in South Bend, so I think that the environment is going to be there for Notre Dame. I think it's an underrated environment, maybe not like Texas A&M at night,

and maybe Texas A&M is not going to be overwhelmed because of the environment they play at home, but it's going to be tough. And now you've got a bit of film to work off of if you're Notre Dame. Remember now, you get to go out there and now adjust. What's the adjustment that Notre Dame may make in this game? Jeremiah loved touching the football much more.

That's got to happen. I don't think he was utilized in that Miami game to the necessary amount for them to win the game. I think that putting the onus on C.J. Carr on the road against that defense at Miami was an oversight by that coaching staff. I believe they will correct that. And they will force Texas A&M to first take away love before they start to go on the perimeter

and try to make it a passing game. Therefore, I like love to have a huge game in this one. I don't really know about A&M's defense. I think that they're good. They're probably not great. They're certainly not Miami. And they certainly don't have the pass rush that Miami does with guys like Rubin Bain.

I do like A&M this year. So I think that A&M could have a really solid year. Marcel Reed is a dynamic quarterback. He's going to have to be able to throw the football well in this one, just like Beck did against Notre Dame in that opening week win for the hurricanes. He does have quality wide receivers, both of them transfers come in, Mario Craver and Casey Concepcion. They can do it on the outside.

I think that they're quality players. My question is, is like, will they have enough to win on the road? I'm not totally sure about that one. I liked what I saw from C.J. Carr. I think Notre Dame goes back to the drawing board, and they understand that getting Jerry, am I love more involved this time is going to help CJ Carr and they're going to clarify some of those looks that he could be throwing into and I think Notre Dame actually wins this game.

Now, I do think it could be tight because again, I'm a fan of Mike Elko and I'm a fan of Texas A&M. I think that's a good football team. I don't think it's a great football team whereas I think Notre Dame could be a great football team. So for me, I'm taking the Irish. I think that they cover the six and a half. Again, I wanted to take the points in this one and I just kept thinking to myself like, is 3124 out of the question? Nope. It certainly isn't. It certainly isn't.

In particular with the explosiveness of love and then I'm sure leaning back into him and him touching the football 15, 16, 17 times. That's what I like. Six and a half, I'm going to take Notre Dame 3125. South Florida at Miami. That's a 17.5 point spread. That's a lot. Can South Florida do it three weeks in a row?

That's the question. Miami is built really well at the line of scrimmage. That's what I love most about the hurricanes. It's not even Beck, even though Beck played really well against Notre Dame. It's the fact that they're physical and they can own the line of scrimmage, which they did against Notre Dame. I had my questions about whether they could do that. And they were able to do that.

So Mario Cristobal has built the proper blueprint for a team that can go and play at the high end because they can handle themselves at the line of scrimmage. They can produce pressure on the quarterback. They can run the football. And for me, I'm a big believer. in Miami, but that doesn't mean that this is going to be easy because South Florida is a really good team. Their defense did an incredible job in the secondary, taking away the big plays for DJ Lagway, even if they didn't produce a lot of pressure. So you know their secondary is good,

because again, it wasn't like six sacks and that's what doomed Florida last week in South Florida's win. It was more the fact that they took away those big plays even without getting the pressure on Lagway and him escaping a few times. So their secondary, they can do it. But if they don't get to Beck, I trust. Beck to create the plays on the outside. Byron Brown, the dual threat quarterback for USF is a really good player. He's huge, 6-3, 232 pounds. He's carrying it about 15 times per game. That's going to be difficult on Miami's defense, but I trust that defense. Ruben Bain, Mezzador, they're a huge problem for opposing quarterbacks and opposing game plan. So I like Miami. I think that Miami is going to give

their full attention to USF. USF has been told how great they are. They're the playoff darling. I think Miami takes care of business here. Against my better judgment, I'm going to go 31.14, but the 17.5 is too much. That's too much. So take the points for South Florida, which is a really good team, but I do think Miami handles business. Miami win, South Florida, I would take the points at 17.5.

Let's get to Florida at LSU. Now, this looked a lot better in the preseason than what we're getting now after Florida lost to South Florida last week, at home. So you just have to ask yourself like a question. You just sit there. If you're in my position and you think to yourself, okay, is that team going to play the way that they played and lose to South Florida

at home and then the very next week go on the road in Baton Rouge in Death Valley and beat that LSU team? The answer's no. The answers no. you could say that Florida was looking ahead, and is it impossible for them to win? Obviously, it's not.

LSU's only favored by seven and a half. But I don't see it. I think that Brian Kelly has been able to lean on his team this week, similar to Kirby Smart. They did not play their best last week, and now the coaching staff, they lick their chops, and they say, we can coach them really hard this week. We can coach them really hard.

Florida, gosh, guys, I didn't like what I saw. Again, South Florida didn't even present a lot of pressure on Lagway, and yet they couldn't get anything going on the offensive side. LSU's defense is better than South Florida, and they will produce pressure on the quarterback. Lagway will be under pressure. I love what I saw from LSU's defense. And by the way, when you look at just the numbers,

there's not many defenses in the country that are blitzing more than LSU. And they're doing it with incredible players. Perkins looks good. I just can't get myself to the point where I think that Florida is going to win this game. And then I can't get myself to a point where I think Florida is even in a position where I would take the seven and a half. I think LSU gets after the quarterback. I think Lagway is going to struggle on this one, just like Clubnik did in week one. Florida's offense did not look good last week.

Nussmeyer, he's played a bunch of big games now. They've already played a huge game on the road. Now they get it at home. The offense can run it with Durham. They can throw it, obviously, with Nussmeyer. They could be without Trey Des Green. That could be interesting. He's their tied end.

And we'll see what happens with some of their injuries. But again, that's part of football. LSU is the better football team. Their defense is a defense that I can now trust and believe in. Florida is not an offense that I can trust and believe in. So the seven and a half is not enough. LSU covers a seven and a half. They win this one 31, 21, 21.

And I think that we continue to talk about LSU as a top three team and one of the teams that could potentially win the national championship, showing that completeness that they were able to show week one that, let's be frank, not many. teams have been able to show during the course of this year. Another good one, this one's in the ACC. Clemson on the road at Georgia Tech. With how they've looked in the first two weeks,

this is a very trendy pick to go to Georgia Tech's side. So this number has gone all the way down to three and a half. Clemson is only a three and a half point favorite, partly because they have not looked right this season. Now, remember what I've always said about Clemson is that the frustrating part about Clemson's offense under Kate Klubnick and Garrett Riley is the fact that they've had such peaks and valleys.

You know, I'm not a huge fan of these peaks and valleys. And are we going to get a valley for a sustained period of time? I think that they probably bounce back. Clemson's offense is questioning whether they're going to have wide receiver Antonio Williams back. He exited that LSU game early in the first quarter. Dabble called him their best player. They're clearly not right with him, not on the field.

my question is for Haynes King and Georgia Tech. If Haynes King is healthy and ready to go, then maybe they've got a shot in this game, but he didn't play last week after clearly being hobbled against Colorado week one. That's a Colorado team that really had some chances to beat Georgia Tech. I just, I can't get myself to the point where I think Haynes King can run it 50 to 20 times, which 15 to 20 times,

which he would have to do in order for them to win, like he did last year against Georgia. Like, I just don't see that. So for me, Clemson gets, back on track with this one. I think they cover the three and a half and they win this one big 31.17. Remember, peaks and valleys. I think we're about to get a peak. I think that you're going to see some urgency from Clemson. Their offensive lines should definitely play better. There's no doubt. Kate Klubnick should definitely play better. And this is a week that they could certainly get right.

So here are the picks that we have got this week. We have got the big one, Georgia and Tennessee. I've got Georgia winning this game 2117 and they're covering the three and a half. I like Georgia in that one. I know that, again, a lot of people have gone the Tennessee route and I understand it. I understand it. But that history between those two certainly favors the Georgia Bulldogs. The big one in the non-conference, Texas A&M, Notre Dame. I have Notre Dame covering the six and a half.

I think that they win this one 3124. Look for Jeremiah love to have a big game. They did not get him the ball, in particular early against Miami, that hurt them. You've got to watch that film over if you're an offensive coach and think to yourself, what in the world were we doing? Why did our best player not touch the football more often? They get it to him. A&M's defense is not what Miami's defense is.

So I like Notre Dame, 3124 to cover the six and a half. South Florida at Miami, that's a big number, guys. That is a big number. Even if you love the canes, which I do. Miami is built on the offensive line. Their defense is very good. Carson Beck played really well in that first game, the opening win over Notre Dame.

But South Florida's got something, and I don't think that they're just going to roll out there and get blown out. Their quarterback is going to keep this tight. I could see them trying to limit possessions, run the quarterback, Byron Brown, dual threat guy, 6-3, 232 pounds. So I'm going to take the 17-5 with South Florida,

but I think Miami gets the win. something like, listen, 31-14, you're still a winner if you're taking those points with South Florida. Florida at LSU, I think this one should be a good one, but it obviously lost its luster. LSU is going to get this win. I think they win by at least 10. I like 3121. Nussmeyer plays well. The defense continues to play well and produce pressure on the opposing quarterback.

In this case, it would be DJ Lagway. LSU covers the 7.5 and they win at 3125. Clemson's only three and a half point favorites at Georgia Tech. They're going to get right. At some point, they're going to get right. Peaks and valleys with Clemson on offense. I think we might see a peak in this one. Georgia Tech is not even the same team they were last year.

And there's questions surrounding exactly how healthy Haynes King is. If he's not a 20-carry guy in this game, then I don't like Georgia Tech in this one. So I think Clemson covers the three and a half. They win this one big, 31-17. Thanks for watching, everybody. Remember, you can subscribe to the YouTube channel and hit the notification button, get in the comments below. I've been dabbling with the comments below this week. That's been very fun.

You can follow us on social media wherever you like to social media. We are there. You can find all of our shorts, our videos there, and all of those opinions during the course of the season and during the course of the week. So that's fun. You can get out there and follow us there. And enjoy the college football games this weekend. I just love that we're in this rhythm now where we get to evaluate and see teams, every week and we get to actually see who's the cream of the crop and who is not.

Some good ones this weekend and enjoy it. Remember, Gus Jenny and I will be live from Northwestern for Big Noon Saturday as Oregon takes on the Northwestern Wildcats. Have a great weekend, everybody, and thanks for listening.