The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Week 3 Picks: Colorado & Coach Prime take on another rival, Tennessee-Florida & more

Episode Date: September 14, 2023

FOX Sports’ lead college football analyst Joel Klatt dives into this weekend’s biggest games and makes his picks. Klatt gets things started with the Big Noon Saturday game on FOX as #7 Penn State looks to continue rolling against Illinois. He then considers the gambling lines in a series of games that look like they could be lopsided on paper like the Rocky Mountain Showdown between Coach Prime and the Buffaloes against their in-state rival Colorado State. He previews Tennessee’s trip to the Swamp and considers whether Ohio State will cover the huge spread and blow out Western Kentucky. He wraps up the previews by looking at the Washington-Michigan State matchup before giving his favorite pick of the week in the Kansas State-Missouri clash. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today on the Joel Class show, we've got games to talk about. And while it might not be a great slate, there's some lines that you got to take a look at. College football has never been better. Interest has never been higher. Believe that we are at the dawn of the golden age of college football. It was an epic day of college football. It was one of those days where you fall in love with the sport all over again. Hey, welcome into the show.

It is the Joel Clash show presented by Hampton, by Hilton. We got games to talk about. it is a Thursday edition of the program. And as you know, the third episode of the week, we talk about games. And while I know it's not a great slate of games, I got some gold right here. I got gold for you. I got picks coming at you for this weekend's action. Hey, before we get into that, though, just remember we're on social media everywhere that you could possibly be on social media here.

You can follow us at Joel Clad Show. Any of the social medias, we've got TikTok out there. right. Big on TikTok, big TikTok guy, as you can imagine. You can follow me personally on X, Twitter, for those of us old guys, and I'll be there. And then for this show, just remember, as I always say, subscribe to the show, whether you're listening, wherever you get your podcast, and or if you're watching on YouTube, make sure to subscribe and get after it there. By the way, thank you for all the engagement. We've had one of the best weeks that we've ever had here on the program. And that's because of you.

And because you love college football. And we love college football. And we're all experiencing college football together. So we appreciate that. Let's get into some of these games. I will start with the game that I'm going to be at. This is the only one that I'm not going to give a pick. But I am going to give a pick on five other games.

And if you were to, I don't know, give all of those in a parlay, it would be 25 to 1. So I'm just saying, I'm not suggesting. I'm just saying, though. Okay. Let's start with the game I'll be at. Penn State travels to Champaign, Illinois, and the Drew Aller era for the Nittany Lions is off to a very good start. So they look to improve to 3-0. This is a team that I really like, and I've liked them since the preseason.

Aller has looked sharp so far. He's a guy that when I first saw him throw, and this was on the field pregame of their first game last year. At Purdue, I'm standing with James Franklin. And we're watching his team warm up and I'm looking at guys like, you know, Joey Porter Jr. and Jaya Brown and I'm like, man, they're really good. And then I see number 15 throw a football. And I'm like, I'm sorry, what? What was that?

The football explodes out of this youngster's hands. Like, I can't wait to show it to you. If you follow this show, obviously, I also do a show called Breaking the Huddle. I will be breaking down some film of Drew Aller later this week and hope to put it up on social and hopefully on the YouTube channel as well. So if you are just listening to the podcast, make sure you get over to the social media channels and you get over to YouTube because I'm going to show you this guy's talent. It's exquisite. I haven't seen an arm like this in a long time. You know, like sturdy, big, strong arm, but he's also a guy that's smooth with it.

He's not just thrown out there recklessly. And that's why I really believe in this Penn State team. I think that this Penn State team is on the level with the other two powers in the Big Ten East. I think that this is a team that can compete with Ohio State and Michigan, although they're probably more suited to compete with Ohio State. As for this game, I look at this game and I look at this Illinois team that's off to a rough start. And I think to myself, listen, Penn State, if you are going to be one of those top echelon teams in the Big Ten, then you've got to go in and dominate this game because they have

that ability. They run it well with their two backs. You're looking at Singleton and Allen, Nick Singleton and Ketron Allen. They're averaging about 135 rush yards between them so far and they have a combined five touchdowns in two games. And it's not even an offense that really like features the run. They're going to check the play a lot. This is a team that likes to be in the correct play. They get it from the sidelines, generally speaking, although Aller has some control at the line of scrimmage. And then they're going to try to run what they feel like

is the best play suited versus that defense. What I'm trying to tell you is they're not just hammering away with the run game, and yet they're producing in the run game. So that tells you that they're very good running the football. On defense, I really love watching them play because they've got elite players at every level. I've always thought that the best defenses have the ability to do everything to you. They can cover, they can run, and they can rush the quarterback.

And that's what Penn State has. They've got elite players like Chop Robinson up front, Abdul Carter at the second level, Kalin King. Kaelin King at Corner might not have the intangibles or the unchangeables that a Joey Porter Jr. had in terms of his length and maybe overall speed. but just technically speaking, King is an exceptional corner, an exceptional corner. They like their safeties, although they don't have the kind of the name brand safety that they've had over the course of the last couple of years.

Illinois has struggled. Let's like let's just face it. And you know what? I don't blame them. It's not a program that's going to recoup or reload quickly. Okay. As good as Brett Bilema is. and he is very good, and I do like this program a lot.

They lost too much off of this team from a year ago. You look at what they lost off of the number one scoring defense in the country. You remember there's a reason that their old coordinator, Ryan Walters, was up for head jobs, including, by the way, being a finalist for Colorado, getting the Purdue job is because he was remarkable at Illinois with that defense. He had draft picks on that defense, in particular in the secondary. They lost three guys out of their secondary. and the first 66 picks of the draft.

This was an elite defense. They don't have that anymore. They don't have their running back that they really relied on last year. I would say Isaiah Williams is their top threat on the outside. He had six for 99 last week, catches. And their quarterback, while a good player, Luke Altamir, he's done some good things.

He had a two-minute drive to kick a field goal to win their first game. But if you watch the Kansas game, this is a team that was handled. Kansas got after. them. Jalen Daniels and the Kansas Jayhawks, they were up what, 34-7 in that third quarter. And so when I'm looking at this

game, it's like Penn State's favored by 14 and a half. And I think that that line is probably correct. Aller and company look very good. All right, let's move on. And now let's get into some picks. Let's start with the game that at the beginning of the year, let's face it, not a lot of

people we're talking about. And yet, big noon kickoff is going to be live for the second straight week in Boulder, Colorado. So, you're a buff fan and if you're above student, get out there and support Big Noon Kickoff, who is the OG of the Buffalo's pregame shows this year because we were there first. So while game day is also going to be there, you got to go to the OG Big Noon. Kickoff, who was there last week, hyping you up before anyone else was. Colorado State coming to Boulder. Now, this is a big in-state rival, but these programs could not be any more different currently. Colorado

State is not a good football team. Okay? They got absolutely housed in their first game. They've only played one game. Granted to a very good Washington State team. I think Colorado is much closer to Washington State than they are Colorado State. So you get where this game is headed. This is going to be a night game. I think that the environment's going to be electric. Why would it be electric? Well, it's still an in-state rivalry and it's still only the second time that this fan base has gotten to go out there and watch Dion Sanders. Last week was incredible. Now you've got both pregame shows, namely Big Noon Kickoff. That's right. You know what I'm talking about. And that stadium is going

to be hyped again. Hyped again. And Colorado States basically going with the guy that was a backup to start the year at quarterback. Now he came in in in mop-up duty and played, I'm going to butcher his name. But Braden Fowler, Nicolosi, I believe is how you say this youngster's name. He was not the starter against Washington State. That was Clay Millen, who went out of the game with a shoulder injury. And now while Clay Millen is healthy, it was Nicolosi, who was the one that scored a few times at the end of the game. So now they're going to go with Nicolosi. Okay, so, hold on. Let's back up for a moment. What did we just learn right now? Well, Colorado State's only played one game. Colorado is probably closer to or even better than Washington State

than they are closer to Colorado State. You see where I'm going with this. Colorado State doesn't have the speed to match up with the buffs on the outside. The buff's defense played much better, although I will say they can't bank on the fact that the quarterback is just going to drop three snaps, right? Like that's probably not going to happen. Shador Sanders leads the country in passing over 450.

50 yards per game. They've got to clean up their offensive line play certainly at Colorado, but do we really think that Colorado State is as good on the defensive front as Nebraska was? Probably not. Probably not. So those eight sacks should go away and you got to think that Dion and his staff are going to be harping on the protection issue and even Shadour's part of that, not holding the football too long. They had Travis Hunter, Jimmy Horn, Dylan Edwards, and Xavier Weaver all go off in their first game against TCU, and then Xavier Weaver, who was the one that was the most unheralded of the four after the first week, he goes off in week two.

Ten catches, 170 yards, and a touchdown. And as Gus affectionately nicknamed him, the X-Man was going crazy on the outside. Travis Hunter, he played 136 snaps per game so far this season. He's the most dominant player on either side of the ball for Colorado. I expect a big night offensively for these buffs. They're going to get after it. High tempo. The spread's 22 and a half.

Colorado's winning by more than 22 and a half. I mean, they are not pleased with the way that they played against Nebraska. Trust me when I tell you that, this was not a very good performance. They won going away. They felt like they should have beat Nebraska after that game 45-7. They didn't. Guess what?

Watch out Colorado State. 22-5 is. not a big enough number. I like the buffs big in Boulder. Hey, it's my favorite time of year, as you know, it's football season, and I take it seriously. So when I'm traveling on the road to watch my favorite teams, I can't risk calling the wrong play with where I stay. Wherever I go, I know that I can count on Hampton by Hilton. I can depend on their comfortable rooms and their warm and friendly service. And I love their free hot breakfast because it's a game changer. So whether you're cheering on your team from the stands or you're never leaving the tailgate.

Hampton by Hilton will always give you that win. Let's move on to a big SEC matchup in any other weekend we probably would have led with Tennessee, Florida. This is one of those games that it's like, boy, this is historically a really important and great matchup. Now, certainly it's lost a little of its luster after Florida got handled against Utah. in that first game, that first week. But Tennessee's favored by six and a half in this game.

And initially, I got to be honest. Okay, so I looked at this game like Monday, and I watched a little bit of Tennessee's team. And I was like, oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, I like that. I like Tennessee to cover. And then as the week has gone on, I've watched more. And I'm thinking to myself, you know what?

Florida's going to improve. One of the best things that can happen to a team is playing poorly early. Why? Because then the coaching staff can make adjustments. Then the coaching staff can coach that team hard. So Tennessee rolls in there. They haven't had that yet. They've rolled over a couple of, let's face it, like soft opponents.

And then you look at their history of Florida. Ball fans, I don't have to tell you what your history at Florida has been. That's not an easy place to play, regardless of what Florida is going through. And I get it. This is not the Florida of the late 2006, 7, 8. I get that. I get that. But they've lost their last nine trips to the swamp. It is still the swamp. It is still a difficult place to play. It is going to be Joe Milton's first start as the starter on the road for Tennessee. This is still an offense that does not resemble the offense from a year ago at all. Quite frankly, they're leaning more on the run game success than they are the passing game success. Last year, we knew exactly

what they were. Dynamic at wide receiver with guys like Jalen Hyatt, dynamic at quarterback with Hendon Hooker, that has not replicated itself this year. This is a wide receiver based offense, downfield read routes, and it hasn't jelled. We don't see the big place. Now, maybe we will. And if you're a Vol fan, you're hoping that you will. But I don't see it yet. There's been only two passes against soft opponents that have gone over 25 yards. That's not enough. Not in this offense. It is for some other offenses, but not in this offense. When I look at this Tennessee team, I see a team that's going to go down there and possibly struggle with a team in Florida, who they're better than certainly. And by the way, Tennessee probably wins this game, but they're favored by

six and a half. Again, tough location. This will be a good road test for Joe Milton. I really, I like Florida to cover in this one. I don't think they'll win, but I think this is going to be a tight matchup that is tighter than the

experts think. So I like Florida to cover the six and a half but Tennessee to win outright. Let's move on. Ohio State, Western Kentucky. Why in the world would we talk about this game? Well, Because it looks on paper like this line is too big.

27 and a half is what Ohio State is given away. Now, think about this, though. Think about this. This is going to be the first game since Ryan Day named his starter, Kyle McCord. All, all of the talk, all of it has been surrounding a narrative that Ohio State has not been good enough offensively. the offensive line has not been good enough.

Heck, if you listened to my podcast yesterday, I talked all about it. I've watched the film and yeah, there are definitely things that they can do better. There's no doubt. Having said that, don't you trust a guy in Ryan Day to make those corrections?

I think Kyle McCord is going to start to play better. One, he's going to get all the reps in practice and two, he's going to get all the reps in a game, and three, he's got Ryan Day in his back pocket. Like this is a guy that coaches quarterback as well as anybody in the country. All right. They got going a little bit in the first half last week against Youngstown. They finally got Marvin Harrison going a little bit.

He had a huge day, in particular in that first half, seven catches for 160 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Albeit they had some atrocious broken coverages from Youngstown that they took advantage of. But listen, they got going a little bit. Now, the offense is only 71st in scoring offense and 119th on third down. And you might be thinking to yourself like all the things you're saying, Joel, would suggest that when they're facing a Western Kentucky team, it likes to throw it around a little bit with a quarterback in Austin Reed. Like, maybe Western Kentucky is going to cover this. Yes, but think about the motivation. Think about what they've got next week.

This is not a look-ahead game. This is a bounceback game for Ohio State. Ryan Day is going to desperately want to get this this offense on track. I don't think they're going to leave anything out there. So to me, based on the motivation of the game, the motivation of trying to get this offense into a spot where they have confidence going into the Notre Dame game in a week,

I like Ohio State. A lot of money is going to go to Western Kentucky in this game because that's a big line and Western Kentucky can throw it all over the country. They're second in the country and passing last year, thrown for over 350 yards. And this year, they're in the top 15 in both scoring and passing. So all the numbers and the metrics would suggest, based on Ohio State's struggles, that you should go with Western Kentucky. But think about the motivation. Ryan Day is going to want to give Kamakord all the confidence in the world.

He's going to want to give the offensive line all the confidence in the world. I believe it's going to be pedal down for the Buckeyes. Pedal down. and I think that Kyle McCord is going to start to play better. You see glimpses of it on film. It doesn't show up all the time, but there's glimpses of it. Give me Ohio State. I like Ohio State. I'll give the points.

Here's a good one that looked better in the preseason, and now there's a big cloud hanging over it for obvious reasons. But Washington is going to go and take on Michigan State. Washington's really good. if you've been listening to this show, I've been hyping them since the preseason, and they have done nothing to disappoint. They've done nothing to take me off of this stance that I think their quarterback is a bona fide Heisman candidate. They've got great wide receivers on the outside, and this is a team that can make some noise. Think about what Michael Pennix has done,

by the way, in his history against Michigan State. He owns the Spartans, owns them. If you go back to his days as the quarterback at Indiana. He's played this Spartan teams, this Spartan team three times. He's got a thousand passing yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions. Like he owns them. And guess what? He's got great players on the outside. He's going to own him again. Of course he is. That's what Michael Pinnock's does. This team is very consistent throwing the football. All right? This is one of the teams that nobody talks about. It's one of the best teams in the country. Pinnix with his wide receiver duo of Romadunze and Jalen McMillan, they're combining for 15 catches, 227 yards per game this season.

They've combined for five touchdowns. Now you look at that team and you look at who they're facing, Michigan State, with all the distractions that they're facing this week. None of their own accord as the players. And players, I feel bad for you because this is a mess at Michigan State. So Harlan Barnett is going to have to step in as the interim head coach. Now you got Mike D'Antonio coming back in, Mark D'Antonio, excuse me, coming back in. And I just don't see how Michigan State plays well.

Michigan State is not a very good football team. We've seen that now for better part of last year and even in a couple of games this year. Now, Noah Kim, their quarterback, has played decent, 285 pass yards per game. got five touchdowns and no interceptions in his first two games. They have wins over Central Michigan and Richmond. This is a giant step up in competition. You know what Washington did to Michigan State last year? I believe that this line is too small.

Michigan State's defense, in particular defending the pass, has been really poor for the last few seasons. There's no reason to suggest that that's going to improve all of a sudden this week against one of the more marquee passing games in all of college football. I'm taking the Huskies. Last one. And I added this one late because I really love it. I really love it.

15 Kansas State is going to Missouri. And I'm looking at games this week and I'm thinking to myself like, okay, you know, I know it's not a great slate of game. So what's jumping out at me? A couple of these lines. One of them was the Western Kentucky Ohio State line. And then the other one was this one. Kansas State is only favored by four and a half against Missouri.

I'm like, hold on a second. This feels like a trap because someone knows something that I don't. Because everything that I'm about to tell you suggests that Kansas State is going to beat Missouri by multiple possessions. One, they did it last year. Both teams are 2 and 0. Kansas State won this matchup last year, 40 to 12. wasn't close. It wasn't close. And here's the thing. All of us are overlooking Kansas State. And we do it every year. Every year we do it. We've been doing it since the Bill Snyder days.

This team is really good. Nobody wants to talk about it, but they won the big 12 a year ago. They beat TCU. Michigan didn't. They did. Will Howard their quarterback since he became a starter or started to start games last year because remember he came in in relief of what was it Adrian Martinez he went four and one last year only loss was to Alabama by the way Bryce Young played in that game just saying I'm just saying now he's a two and oh and this so so you're telling me like will Howard is basically undefeated outside of facing Bryce Young okay and Missouri is only a dog by four and a half why why it's certainly nothing that they've done this year this is the fifth year for Chris Climmon. They're the defending Big 12 champs with a quarterback that's only

losses against Bryce Young. And they're going to face a team in Missouri that yeah, has a really good wide receiver, Luther Burton. He was a former five star. But outside of that, what do they have? They certainly can't run the ball. Last week against Middle Tennessee, Middle Tennessee, they ran it for just over two yards per carry. Four and a half? What are we doing? I get it. Those buildings don't build themselves. But two and a half yards per carry against middle Tennessee, and you're going to face Kansas State? Like Kansas State's defense, they have eight sacks in two games.

They've only allowed one touchdown. Will Howard, six and one as a starter for Kansas State since taking over in the middle of last season. And Missouri ran it for 2.4 yards, 2.2, 2.4 yards. Guys, this is stealing. This is stealing. Four and a half, absolutely. Kansas State's going to win by multiple possessions. Not a doubt in my mind.

So there it is. Your five-pick parlay, if you want me to review it, Colorado is beating Colorado State by over 22.5. Bank that one. I like Florida covering in a loss in their home stadium against Tennessee. I like Ohio State. This is the one that you're all going to raise your eyebrows about. Ohio State is given 27.5.

I like it. take the Buckeyes. Washington States facing a distracted Michigan State team who can't defend the pass. And they've got Michael Pinnix with McMillan and a Dundze on the outside. Yep, taking that one, given the 16 and a half. And Kansas State, given four and a half? What are we doing? That's a multiple possession win written all over it. Missouri. Missouri played Georgia tough one time and now all of a sudden with like their world beaters. What are we doing? Uh, folks, I'm really, really happy with the way the show has been going because of you. So thank you for being a part of it

and liking and subscribing wherever you're listening or watching this show. This has been a remarkable start to the season. The numbers have been off the charts. And I just wanted to thank you, as well as the entire staff here at the Joel Class show. They do a marvelous job. And on Wednesdays when we record this before the Thursday drop. I am here in the studio and I get to see all the hardworking people. So I just wanted to say thank you for everything that you do. You can follow us on social media at Joel Clat Show. You can send us an email.

I think it's like the Joel Clat Show mailbag at gmail.com. We always love mailbag questions. You can follow me at Joel Clat on X or Twitter. If you're old like me, I'm 41, I'm probably going to still call it Twitter for like 10 more years. and then remember, subscribe wherever you're listening, or if you're watching on YouTube, definitely subscribe. Those are the picks. Enjoy your weekend of college football, everybody,

because it could be a good one.