The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Week 5 College Football Picks: Oregon-Penn St, Alabama-Georgia, Ohio St-Washington & More!

Episode Date: September 25, 2025

FOX Sports’ lead College Football analyst Joel Klatt makes his picks for the biggest games of the college football weekend. He begins by breaking down his game on Big Noon Saturday on FOX as #21 USC faces #23 Illinois before making his pick in the Top-10 matchup in Happy Valley as #3 Penn State looks for a signature win against #6 Oregon. Klatt also makes his pick in the Alabama-Georgia game as the Crimson Tide look to end the nation’s longest home winning streak. He also considers whether #1 Ohio State should be on upset alert as they face their first road test of the season in Husky Stadium against Washington. Klatt then makes his picks in two other big SEC matchups as #4 LSU faces #13 Ole Miss on the road and Auburn looks to bounce back from their loss to Oklahoma by upsetting #9 Texas A&M at Kyle Field. 0:00-1:18 Intro1:19-5:44 USC vs. Illinois5:45-9:50 Oregon vs. Penn State9:51-14:33 Alabama vs. Georgia14:34-18:33 Ohio State vs. Washington18:34-22:14 LSU vs Ole Miss22:15-27:53 Auburn vs. Texas A&M Use my code for 10% off your next SeatGeek order*: https://seatgeek.onelink.me/RrnK/KLATT10Sponsored by SeatGeek. *Restrictions apply. Max $20 discount Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

If someone invited you to a wedding this week, politely declined. Right back, absolutely not. If you are making a short list right now for the Heisman Trophy, I do think he would have to be on it. Dante Moore is going to be going into an environment that really he hasn't seen before. I think Dante Moore is going to be built for this. Do I think Alabama is all of a sudden go between the hedges and beat what I think is the SEC favorite in Georgia?

No. And now Wayne Kiffin has some motivation. The opposing linebacker is dating his daughter. today is why we love college football. Hey, what's up everybody? Welcome into the Joel Clatt show. I'm Joel Clad. This show, as always, is brought to you by graduate by Hilton. We thank them for their support as always. Picks and previews for week five here in college football. We've got a lot to get to here in this week. We are three and one last week against the spread. Eight and 12, slow start to

the year against the spread so far on the season. But if you are just taking the picks outright that I make, Moneyline, if you will, I'm talking. 12 and 8 on the year just to kind of keep you up to date on what we've been doing so far in the picks. Let's get into it right away. Lots to cover. So let's go with the game. I'll be at big noon Saturday. USC goes on the road to face Illinois. USC is a six and a half point favorite in this one. I'm really encouraged by USC's run game. I've constantly said over the course of the offseason, as you know, if you've been watching this program, that I think that Lincoln Riley is always at his best when they are dominant on the ground run on the football. That's what was.

the case at OU. And that has been the case this year with Wayman Jordan at running back and others, by the way, stable of backs there, and an offensive line that is clearly a lot better, bigger, and more physical than what USC has had over the last couple of years. This offense looks a lot more like the Lincoln Riley offenses that we saw at Oklahoma. Those offenses were always one or two in the country in yards per play. They were always up there in the top five in yards per rush. Their quarterbacks were efficient in the top five in the country throwing the football. They could also use their legs. They were dangerous in so many respects. And guess what? That's exactly what USC is now under Lincoln Riley. This offense looks very similar. In fact,

they're number one in the country right now in yards per play. They're second in yards per pass attempt. They're third in yards per carry. So it doesn't matter what they're trying to do. They've been very efficient. Now, their level of competition has not been great, but I do think Michigan States probably a little bit better than people are giving them credit. So that win last week and the offensive performance last week, I thought was outstanding for USC. Now, we get to Jaden Miava, and I would encourage you to go back to Wednesday's episode of the show. I had Matt Linerd on, and we talked about Jaden Miava.

And Matt Linerd, of course, knows USC inside and out. And he made a really great observation, which is that Miava reminds him a lot more of a Baker-Mayfield style or even a Kyler Murray, maybe not as quick or a, a threat with his legs, but that he is a willing runner and he can threaten the defense with his legs, but he will still play within the structure of offense throwing the football. That was the secret sauce back in the day for Lincoln Riley and the Sooners, which is what made them one of the best and most prolific offenses in college football. That's exactly what they have here.

So I'm a big fan of what Myava has been doing. Myava, in a lot of cases, in a lot of senses, has made a case to be one of the better players in college football, if you were making a short list right now for the Heisman Trophy, I do think he would have to be on it. And in some respects, this could be a coming out party for Jaden Maiava in this game nationally televised, obviously, against Illinois on a big moment here on Fox. They've got a great wide receiver on the outside. Mackay Lemon is terrific. He's a really good player out wide. Jacoby Lane has been banged up. We'll see if he gets back into the mix, but this is an offense, like I said, that I really believe in. And they resemble a lot of what

Indiana does, which is not great for Illinois. Because the last time we saw Illinois, they were giving up 63 points on the road last week to the Hoosiers. And part of that was the fact that Indiana could run it well and throw it well. Okay, that offense was clicking on all cylinders. And then devastating for Illinois, the injury situation for Brett Bealema is not good right now. And in the fourth quarter of last week's game against Indiana, they did not have a starter on the field in the secondary, not one. A couple of ankle injuries out wide at corner, a safety that went down to targeting,

one that was now in the concussion protocol. So they could, in theory, get all of those guys back if they get healthy and they get cleared to play during the course of the week. But we shall see. If they don't have those guys on the field, it could be a really long day for Illinois, trying to bounce back, certainly,

and they're going to be facing a defense in USC that's been getting after the quarterback. Great stat that I gave in Wednesday's show again when Matt was on, so go check that out on the YouTube channel. USC has 16 sacks right now. They are one of the best pass rushing teams in the country so far. They have size up front. In fact, their average across their defensive line is 300 pounds.

Last year, it was just over 270 pounds. So they're bigger, they're more ready and more established to go on the road and play Big Ten football. We will see it on Saturday. Big Noon Saturday, Gus Jenny and I will have the call as the Trojans number two. 21 in the country, six and a half point favorites at number 23 in the country, Illinois. Let's move on. Huge one, huge one at Penn State. My goodness, we've been pointing at this game the entire offseason and what it would mean for each program as Oregon goes on the road to face Penn State. Top 10 matchup. Oregon right now ranked number six, Penn State ranked number

three. Penn State is favored at home by three and a half. This is really the first prove-it game that we get to see this year, this version of Penn State and James Franklin, a rematch of last year's Big Ten title game in which, of course, Oregon won. Now, Penn State has not been good in these games, in these match-up games. Famously, we've been talking about this in the entire offseason. When is James Franklin and his group going to rise up and level up and win one of these games in which we would call it kind of a match-up game where talent is equated across each sideline? And in fact, if you look at the history,

It's even worse than I think a lot of us think. They've lost 14 straight regular season games against top 10 teams going back to when they beat Ohio State in a wideout in 2016 on their route to a Big 10 title that year, by the way. The atmosphere is going to be electric. It really will be. And I think it's going to be incredibly tough for Oregon and their young quarterback, even though he's three years now out of high school,

but Dante Moore is going to be going into an environment that really he hasn't seen before. This is going to be one of the toughest environments that he's ever going to play in as a quarterback, and this team is going to have to run the football well. They've got a really deep stable of running backs, really six deep at running back. I like their offensive line a lot.

They rebuilt that in the transfer portal, and they've got some real weapons on the outside. Now, I think Dante Moore is going to be built for this. I think that he's going to play well. I do think that there's going to be some trouble for them at some point because of that environment. You look at Penn State, they've been a bit underwhelming against a schedule that is not all that formidable.

And one of the things that I'm concerned about for Penn State is the fact that they have not thrown the ball well. Drew Aller, we think that he can be a great quarterback. I really still believe that. And yet, whether it was last year or even early this year, they don't go out and spin it with a lot of efficiency. They don't light anybody up with the passing game. Good thing they've got a great running game, but like, where is the game where you take an inferior

opponent and throw it for 300 yards? We don't see it. We don't see it. And I think that that is a troubling aspect if you're looking at this game from the Penn State point of view. The one thing they've got on their side, however, is that Oregon did not defend the run well against Northwestern a couple of weeks ago. So that's a team that now has been focusing on that, I'm sure, because Dan Langing was so upset with the way that they played defensively against the run specifically against Northwestern. They better have that figured out because Penn State will threaten them with the run game. Those two running backs for Penn State are outstanding. Andy Coddlenicki, the offensive coordinator, outstanding in his creativity, the way that he gets

those playmakers the ball out of the backfield, and they will test that Oregon run defense. I think this is going to be a classic. I really do. I think that this is going to come down right to the very end. I think that the environment is ultimately going to make the difference. And even though Penn State has struggled so mightily in games like this, the urgency to win this game has to be there. They have to win this game.

I don't think Oregon has to win this game. Penn State has to win this game. So in a classic, backed by their fans and that environment, I think Penn State wins the game, I think they win it by a point. If you're telling me I can take points with Oregon, I'm going to do that. So how about 3,130 in an absolute barn burner? Penn State gets the win that they desperately need for their coach and for their program

over a top 10 opponent in the regular season. They win it by 1, 3,130, but I will take the 3.5 with the Ducks and Dan Lannning. We move on. Another monster. How about Bama traveling to Georgia? Who, here we go. Bama has obviously looked much better after that opening flop to Florida State, Georgia, as impressive as anybody in college football with what they were able to do on the road against Tennessee,

coming back from 217 and winning that football game. All right, they showed me a lot. And what they showed me is that the SEC still goes through Georgia. And guess what? They don't lose at home. They don't. They don't lose at home. They've got the longest win streak in the country at home.

This is a team that I think has a resilience to them and a confidence to them. and a confidence to them that they can go out there and beat Alabama. A lot will be talked about about this Kirby Smart record against Alabama. And yes, I understand that they lost last year after Nick Saban had already retired. But most of this happened when Saban was there, this one in six record against Alabama. But remember, as I told you earlier in the week, all seven of those games have taken place outside of Athens. That's something. They've either been neutrals or at best.

Bama. Now they finally get them in Athens, and this is an environment that like Penn State will be crazy. Georgia's won 33 straight between the hedges. Last loss was all the way back in 2019. I know that Bama has been different since Florida State, but here's what worries me about Alabama. If you look at the trend of how they've played on the road, even dating back to last year under Kaelin DeBore, it has not been good. And in fact, it's been downright bad. It's not that they've just lost games. been the fashion in which they have lost those games. They played a really poor game, uninspired against Vanderbilt, lost. They played terrible on the road in Norman against Oklahoma and lost last year.

Then they go on the road to open the season this week, after an entire offseason to focus, create urgency, do all of those things. And they looked totally uninspiring and got absolutely throttled by Florida State in a game in which the score wasn't indicative of the dominance for the Seminoles. So do I think Alabama is all of a sudden because they looked good against Wisconsin going to go between the hedges and beat what I think is the SEC favorite in Georgia? No. I don't think that that's going to happen.

Not when they've got Gunner Stockton back there, not with the confidence that he's going to bring out of that Tennessee game after leading them back to a victory in overtime. I know Ty Simpson has been great. And listen, I don't know what Georgia's defense is going to do defending the pass. Maybe it's not fantastic. but I don't think it matters. Why? Because they weren't even good against Tennessee. So you're telling me that Georgia at home is facing a team that's bad on the road

and they're only giving two and a half. So I can take Georgia by a field goal in this? Absolutely, I'm going to take Georgia by a field goal. I think that that line is way too close. I think Georgia covers the two and a half. Maybe it's a little bit high scoring because both defenses might struggle against the opposing passing game. But I can see, 3831. I think Georgia wins and they further cement themselves as the team in the SEC and the team that everyone has to go through in the SEC. Again, none of these seven games have been in Athens. Now, Bama has to go to Athens. That's the element in this game that I just, I can't get over. I think Georgia wins this game. They win it by a touchdown 38, 31. Hey, you know what? It's time to get out

and do something fun, whether it's catching a game or surprising someone with tickets. Live events are back in a huge way, which is why I want to give the sponsor of today's episode, Seat Geek, a huge shoutout. With over 28 million downloads, Seatkeek is the number one rated ticketing app with more than 70,000 events listed. That's incredible. College football is here. The NFL is here right on the horizon. Major League Baseball is in full swing. And our team here at the Joel Clat Show, we use Seatgeek, and we grab our tickets right there for all of it. It's quick, it's easy, and you know you're getting a good deal. That's what I love about it most.

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and you can download the app. The code will be automatically added to your account for later. Thanks to Seat Geek for sponsoring today's show and get that 10% off with Clat 10 right now. Sneaky, great game in the Pacific Northwest as Ohio State, number one team of the country travels all the way to Seattle to take on Jed Fish's Group and Washington. You heard my rant earlier in the week.

There is no reason Washington shouldn't be ranked outright and there's certainly no reason that the inept AP poll shouldn't have them receiving a vote, a vote. Not one. That is crazy. This is a much better team than that. This line started at 10 and a half. It has been bet down to 8.5. So Ohio State favored by 8.5. Julian Sane is going to start his first game on the road. We know that that's difficult. He's still a young quarterback. This is the most underrated home environment in college football. Their records suggest that. In fact, it's the second longest win streak. At home, home in college football only to Georgia. They've won 22 straight. I think Ohio State struggles

in this game. There's a good chance that I think that the game plan for Ohio State is a bit safe. We saw that against Texas, where Ryan Day and Brian Hartline didn't want to expose Julian San and some of their other young players to just the environment, even at home, against Texas. Well, they have to understand that what they're about to face on Saturday at Washington is going to be fierce, not only because of the opponent across from them, but what is around them in that stadium. Again, great home environment. I think that they're going to play it a bit close to the vest until they have to or if they have to. You don't want to risk throwing an early interception and just creating an absolute frenzy in that building.

You don't want to do that. So I think they'll lean on the run, lean on their defense, and then that's another. matchup, I can't wait to watch. This Matt Patricia defense with Ohio State came out and totally stifled Texas. Maybe that doesn't look quite as impressive with the way Texas has played offensively since then. Okay, I'll give you that. However, they were totally dominant in that game.

The creativity to disguise coverage was phenomenal from Matt Patricia and those experienced players in the secondary, namely Caleb Downs. If you were going to build a defense to combat a quarterback that can run around and make plays like Williams can. Demand Williams, the quarterback for Washington, you would have and build a second level and a third level that has athleticism, instincts, and speed. That's exactly what Ohio State has with Sonny Stiles at linebacker, with Arvell Reese at linebacker, and with Caleb Downs at safety. So one or two of those guys will be at points spying Demand Williams, and if he tries to get loose, I think that they'll be there to stop him. That's the one concern I would have is how

elusive is he going to be and can he create two, three, four, five first downs with his legs and extend the series, get the crowd into the game? That would be my concern for the Ohio State defense. This Ohio State offense is potent. I do think they'll play it close to the vest, so I think eight and a half is too many. I could see a game plan that is more conservative from the Buckeyes. I could see a game plan that is just focused on winning the game, not by how much. Very similar to Texas. Ryan Day famously said, all we're worried about is the win, and I know that that's what they'll be worried about in this matchup,

facing a team that's won 22 straight on the road. So I like taking the eight and a half for Washington and Ohio State winning the game. I think Ohio State wins the game by a touchdown. Let's just, let me paint a picture like this. Ohio State plays really well. They're up 27, 14. They're up 27, 13 late in the game.

It's in hand. and then Washington scores a late touchdown and covers the eight and a half. That's why eight and a half I don't love is a late touchdown from Washington. Therefore, Ohio State wins this one, 2720, but I'm going to take those eight and a half from Washington. So my pick will be Washington will get the eight and a half and cover that eight and a half. LSU at Old Miss, this is another really good football game. LSU ranked in the top five.

There's some questions about their offense, okay? That's fair. No questions about their defense. Lane Kiffin, he's got the 13th ranked team in the country, and they're favored by a point in a half at home. This line surprised me, and I don't like it when I'm surprised. I would have favored LSU by somewhere between five to six in this game, five and a half, six, six and a half.

So when I saw Ole Miss favored, I was like, oh, yikes, what am I missing in this one? I get it that LSU has struggled running the ball, and they have. Brian Kelly was famously asked about that after their win over Florida. Ole Miss is not Florida on defense. And specifically, they're not Florida stopping the run. In fact, Ole Miss is 121st in the country in terms of run defense. So this is not the same animal.

I don't think LSU is going to come out and struggle to the extent that they have struggled running the football to this point, which means I think their offense actually gets going in this game. Now, Ole Miss is very good on the offensive. side. And now Lane Kiffin has some motivation, as we've all seen on social media, because the opposing linebacker is dating his daughter. And Kiffin has now come out and said, take the over. Well, okay, pedal to the medal. So there was some question coming into the week about the starting quarterback for Ole Miss. They have since named the starter. So Kiffin is going to go with

Shambliss, who started their last game, played really well, by the way, 300 yards passing, 100 yards, on the ground against Arkansas. And listen, he does have a good history. He won a Division II National Championship at Ferris State before transferring in. So that question is somewhat answered now and we'll see whether Austin Simmons is available as his backup, who was the original starter for Ole Miss.

Questions at the quarterback position against an LSU team that's really been led by their defense. That defense has been outstanding the entire year. And even though their resume continues to get knocked down as Clemson loses football games, like this is still a very good football team, who I still believe will play better offensively moving forward. Everything suggests that they'll be better moving forward offensively.

Nussmeyer won't continue to struggle. Brian Kelly's teams won't continue to struggle on the offensive side. I don't believe that. And you're telling me that I can get a point and a half and take LSU, which I think is a better team. LSU is better than they were a year ago. Ole Miss is not as good as they were a year ago. LSU beat them a year ago.

Okay? I think Ole Miss is in the vein of maybe a South Carolina or in Illinois where I think they're a little overrated at this point. I really do. They barely beat Kentucky. They barely beat Arkansas. Arkansas has since gone on to lose to Memphis. So their resume doesn't impress me all that much. I think Ole Miss is overrated.

If Washington is underrated vastly, I think Ole Miss is overrated. Lane said take the over. I'm going to take them up on taking the over, but I'm going to take the point in a half. I think LSU wins this one straight up. Could be offensive fireworks. How about 38, 34? LSU gets the win on the road in the SEC and continues this March.

Defense maybe gets bit a couple of times by Lane, who's going to have something creative in that game plan. But again, I don't think Ole Miss is Florida on the defensive side. I don't even think they're Clemson on the defensive side, to be real honest with you. So I think LSU's offense is primed for a moment where they break out a little bit. So 3834 LSU beats Ole Miss at Ole Miss. Auburn, A&M, another really good one.

Auburn coming off that loss to Oklahoma in which they gave up 10 sacks. 10 sacks, that's wild. A&M, meanwhile, is off of a buy. So let me get this straight. Texas A&M gets to beat Notre Dame and then have a buy to prep to play at home against Auburn. Meanwhile, Auburn had to play Oklahoma on the road in a knockdown dragout and a game in which they feel like they got robbed, and then the SEC officiating crew admitted that they should have called

the penalty on that trick-play touchdown from OU. So now all of a sudden they're going to all week feel like they got robbed, which means I think it's going to be very difficult to get this team to focus forward. Playing back-to-back weeks on the road is hard anyways. Against two good opponents, it's even harder. Against this environment, it's going to be even harder. I think it's going to be difficult for them to focus. We've seen that they can defend the run decently well.

So I don't think A&M is going to run it all over the field. But, but A&M's passing game was elite against Notre Dame. Elite against Notre Dame. I thought Marcel Reed was fantastic. I thought Craver was the fastest guy on the field. And in a lot of ways, played as explosive as any player in college football on the outside. This is an Auburn team that gave up, shoot, what was it? 400 yards to Baylor through the air, I think A&M wins this game.

I think they win this game and I don't think six and a half is enough. Back to back road games, this environment, a clear weakness in the past defense for Auburn, as we saw against Baylor in the opening game of the season, Marcel Reed, with the confidence that he's getting off of a buy, they get healthy, they get energized, they can focus, Craver on the outside, conception on the outside, like, yes, yes. give me A&M. Give me A&M. I'll give the six and a half. They win this game. I think they win it. I'll take them by a score. 31, 24, Texas A&M gets the win. Some great games in college football. I'm loving this slate of games. I think it's a fabulous slate of games.

Let's just recap some of these picks that I gave. So the big one in the big 10, I'm going to take the three and a half with Oregon, but I think that Penn State wins the game by one. Okay, so Penn State outright, but take the three and a half with Oregon on the road. Georgia only giving two and a half with the longest home win streak in college football against a team in Alabama that, yes, has played well since the Florida State game, but continues to struggle on the road dating back to last year. Absolutely. The SEC runs through Georgia. They run this game. They're at home. They win it by certainly more than a field goal.

I'm going to take Georgia, give the two and a half. huge one of the big 10 Ohio State, Washington. Washington has the second longest home win streak in college football, 22 straight dating back to 2021. They're getting 8.5. And I do think because of the young quarterback for Ohio State, that Ohio State will play it somewhat close to the vest, which means that the 8.5 number is too big.

So while Ohio State wins, maybe by a touchdown, I think I would take the 8.5 there with Washington at home in a great environment. LSU at Ole Miss. Ole Miss is overrated, folks. They just are. I can't believe they're favorite in this game. If you tell me I can take LSU, I can take that defense,

I can get a point in a half, they beat Ole Miss last year, they're better than they were a year ago. I'm taking LSU to outright win the game. I'm getting the point in a half. I think that's a fairly easy pick right there. And then the last one in the SEC, Auburn back-to-back road games.

Don't love that. A&M off of a buy. A&M getting confident, throwing the football. Auburn did not defend the pass well against Baylor earlier in the year. So Reed has a big day. They win it by a score. I will give the six and a half. A&M wins it by a touchdown.

And I will give the six and a half there. So there are the picks. And remember, you can follow us and subscribe on the YouTube channel for all of these picks and previews every single week. Our reactions every single Monday. We've got all sorts of content. Subscribe to the YouTube channel, if you would. Get down into those comments below.

I'll be down there trying to chop it up from time to time. And then wherever you like to social media, you can follow us on social media. You can get our content in shorter form on social media. And we're everywhere you are at Joel Clatio. Listen, I can't wait for this weekend. I think it's going to be an incredible weekend. This weekend will shape the rest of this college football season. As great as this opening month has been, this is where we get to the nitty-gritty.

We get conference games. We get good teams playing good teams on the road in tough environments. We're going to see the cream rise to the top this week in college football like we have not seen during the course of this season so far, and I can't wait for it. So we'll be there in Illinois as USC is on the road to face Illinois. Big noon Saturday, Gus Jenny and I will have a call. Big noon kickoff will be there and enjoy the day. By the way, there's Ryder Cup this week. There's all these games this week. The television on Saturday is going to be epic. If you, if someone invited you to a wedding this week, like politely declined and maybe even not so politely declined. Be like, in fact, right back, absolutely not.

Just right back, absolutely not. Because this week is going to be incredible. I hope you enjoy it. All right, folks. We'll be back on Monday with our recap of what I think will be an epic Saturday in college football.