The Joel Klatt Show: A College Football Podcast - Why is Oklahoma's offense struggling, and new blood in the CFB Playoff?

Episode Date: September 30, 2021

In this week's Breaking the Huddle, Joel Klatt takes a deeper look on why Oklahoma's offense is struggling and explains how it's not necessarily Spencer Rattler's fault. He also shares his Top 10 Rankings after Week 4, and talks about how the path to the CFB Playoff is more wide open than previous years. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

What's up? Joel Clad here. You are watching Breaking the Huddle. This show is brought to you by Dr. Pepper. Remember, it is the one fans deserve. Lots to get into. Today, I've got my top 10 teams in the country, the way I see them. Some of my thoughts on those teams as well. I'm going to break down OU's offense. What's going on with Spencer Rattler and the OU offense and maybe a little message for Oklahoma fans? We're going to talk about this wide open year of college football before we get to clat back in the last segment. But let's get to it. Right away, my top 10 teams in the country, but we always start with the teams that just didn't quite make it. So my almost top 10 in the country, the way I see it, I've got Ole Miss, Arkansas, BYU, and Michigan State. And I know a lot of people are like, why in the world is Arkansas not in your top 10? Well, because I think it remains to be seen

what and how good they are. Remember that win against Texas A&M. However impressive it was, was against the Texas A&M team that has not been impressive at all. Defensively, they've played well, but A&M only beat Colorado by one score. That's a Colorado team that got shut out by Minnesota at home, and that's a Minnesota team that went home and lost to Bowling Green as a 30-point favorite. So we'll see. We'll see with Arkansas over the next couple of weeks.

By the way, Michigan State, they stay in there but slipped a little bit. Why did they slip a little bit? Well, you know, they didn't really do anything in the second half. They ran back that punt to tie the game in order to beat Nebraska. Let's get to the teams that actually made it into the top 10. My top 10 as I see it here, as we enter October, Notre Dame comes back into the top 10 after that win against Wisconsin. Not really on the road, that neutral site game in Soldier Field. I was very impressed with their defense, Marcus Freeman's defense starting to gel.

They were creating turnovers. That's exactly what Brian Kelly wanted from that defense, and they're starting to do that. Now, they've got a tough game this week against Cincinnati. Remember now that's Freeman's former team and obviously Luke Pickle. he knows what he's doing and Cincinnati is my number nine team. Desmond Ritter has been very good for them. Their defense has been terrific and now they've got their shot. I think this is actually the biggest group of five game that we've seen maybe in the playoff era because I've always argued that it really takes two years. Cincinnati fans, it takes two years to get a bona fide group of five team into that

playoff conversation in a legitimate way. And so last year is going to help you now moving forward into this season. They've got to beat Notre Dame. This is it. If Cincinnati wants to go to the playoff, Bearcat fans, if you want to go to the playoff, this one's a must. This is the biggest game a group of five team has played in the playoff era. If they get this one based on the rest of their schedule and what's happening around the country, we very well could see Cincinnati in the playoff. And I think that that would be a really good thing for college football. All right, we continue to move up this top 10. I've got Ohio State moving up to number eight. People are like, well, what in the world? Ohio State hasn't looked very.

good. Would it surprise you at all? College football fans, would it surprise you at all if I told you Ohio State was actually leading the country in yards per play at just over eight and a half yards per play? You'd probably be surprised, right? You're like, whoa, whoa, I thought this guy was falling at Ohio State. Well, maybe not necessarily. Now, Kyle McCord started last week. It looks like C.J. Stroud's going to be healthy and we're going to see what happens with the development of their defense. But as this team starts to gel and develop trivia on Anderson gets more carries. Watch out for Ohio State. There's still the team that you've got to knock off in that Big Ten conference. All right, we can continue to move up. Florida goes all the way up to number seven for me because of the way they can run the football. All right. They lose to Bama basically because their two point play was was not any good. But that team can run it. They're fast on defense. I was impressed what they have done even at three and one. They're my number seven team. Penn State's at number six. Obviously we know what Penn State is. But I think what has been really fun to see. for Penn State is the development of their offense.

Sean Clifford, he's up 11% on completion percentage from what he was a year ago. So the new offensive coordinator is working. Mike Yersich is doing a heck of a job. Jahan Dotson, he's got at least five catches and a touchdown in every single game this season. That's what you've got to do is get your playmaker the ball, and they've been able to do that. The defense obviously has been tremendous. I've been talking about that all year long. I've got Iowa at number five, although some concerning things popping up,

in regards to Iowa, namely their inability to run the ball. They're only running it for 3.3 yards per play. That's something to watch out for. They ran it for under two yards per play against Colorado State last week. They were able to win that game. But yeah, you know, we'll see where Iowa goes from here, even though they get into my top five. Now the four, Oklahoma, I've still got them at number four. I got a lot of people expressing a lot of frustration with OU at number four.

And the bottom line is this. OU, while they have not looked great, are still 4 and O. This is still a team with a very high ceiling. And I think that they can correct some of the errors that we're seeing. So OU is going to remain at number four because of where they can go and their ability to continue to win these games, even when they're not playing well. I think Ohio State would probably trade places with him after that loss to Oregon. All right. At number three for me is Oregon.

Obviously, that win on the road. Oregon's 4 and O. They're going to be my number three team in the country. They can still run it well. They didn't look great against Arizona. That's an Arizona team that looks like it might not win a football game, but they're going to continue to be good. And by the way, Kvon Thibodeau probably going to be back into the lineup for Oregon here moving forward. So we'll see how good their defense can potentially play.

Georgia at number two and then Alabama at number one. And those two, I feel like has really separated themselves out. If Oregon would have looked more dominant against Arizona, I probably would have separated the three out. But really at this point is Alabama and Georgia what they're being able to do. Bryce Young looks really good. good and comfortable even as a young quarterback. Georgia's defense has scored more touchdowns than they've given up. And J.T. Daniels is second in the country in completion percentage.

So it looks like they're the biggest threat to Alabama at this point. And two teams that have kind of clearly separated themselves out, and then a whole mess of teams that are going to be jockeying for that three and four position when it comes playoff time. Let's dive into OU's offense, okay, shall we? because last week, listen, it wasn't good. And it's not what we expect from the Oklahoma offense. And we started to hear those chance for Caleb Williams. We heard them.

Oh, you fans. But was it necessary? Was it Spencer Rattler's fault? Well, let's take a look under the hood and actually see what's going on with the Oklahoma offense. First, in order to know what's going on, you've got to take a look back and say, what were they? How did they have success?

Well, I would argue that it actually starts with the run game. Okay? So you hear you have rushing yards, per game on this side. This is their points per game over the course of the last few years. And what you see is an offense that generally averages about 42 points or more and generally runs for about 180 yards or more. And really over 210 yards in their really quality years. Last year was a bit of an aberration at the 179. And a lot of that, by the way, is that you didn't have the cupcakes in the non-conference where you get to pad some of those stats. So this was a more of a conference schedule with only one of those cupcakes in the non-conference. But here, look at this.

38 points, only 161 yards rushing. I think those correlate more than anything than in particular when you're looking at what's going on with them. In the last couple of weeks, we've seen the lowest point total in the Lincoln Riley era. I think it's because they can't run the ball. This offense is predicated on running the football. The chain reaction of the Oklahoma offense kind of goes like this. If you don't have any run game, then you've got no play action pass. The play action pass is where they're explosive.

This is the way Lincoln Riley gets those big plays and a big reason why they've been able to average well over 40 points a game throughout his tenure. When you have no play action pass and no ability to run the ball, you become one-dimensional and you've got no ability to protect the passer. In particular versus very good defensive lines like West Virginia had last week. And when you can't protect the passer and you're one-dimensional, you've got no chance. Okay, so let's walk through this a little bit. What does that chain look like? Well, let's start with the no-run game. What happens in the run game when you don't have success?

Well, generally, you don't block down linemen, and you don't get any movement on the double teams. And the double team movement is so critical for Oklahoma, in particular with their favorite concept, the GT pull scheme. When you're pulling linemen, you better get movement on the double team or else you're not going to have any shot in the run game.

Let's take a look at what we've got with the run game. Okay, this is just a simple handoff from Spencer Rattler. Eric Gray is in the backfield. But watch, you just got down linemen. two down linemen and an outside support player. They have got to be blocked. You've got to cover up that color. Those guys are totally free right off the bat.

Eric Gray's got no chance here. And in fact, with three free mountaineers in the backfield, he does an unbelievable job just getting positive yardage. That cannot happen. That can absolutely not happen. Here we have another run play where you've got a total whiff up front. Akeem Mesedor, number 90, just in the backfield. No chance for the running back.

There's no way you can be effective in the run game. when you're not blocking the down lineman. That is a huge problem. Then the next part of this is that you've got to get movement. When you do actually target them right, you've got to get movement on the double team. Here's the first play of the game for them. They're going to pull their guard and they're tight end.

This is that GT pull scheme that I was talking about. They're going to pull these two guys around the edge. That means you've got to get a double team right there at the point of attacking. It's got to move so that the pullers can get around and tighter and get up the field. Here, they're in the backfield, there was no movement on the double team, and then the back has to make a cut three yards

behind the line of scrimmage, four yards behind the line of scrimmage, and he only gains a yard. There's no movement there. So not only is the offensive line not getting the defensive line targeted, but then they're not moving them when they do block them. When that happens, you can't run the ball. When you can't run the ball, you've got no play action pass. So no run game to no play action pass. And what are the elements of play action pass that they're struggling with? Well, in order to throw the ball down the field for explosives, you've got to protect your quarterback. And in order for those to be effective in the windows down the field, you've got to put conflict on the second and third level players with the run fake because it's been effective. So what

happens when you don't have those two things? You don't have play action pass. You can't be explosive. Let's look at the film. This is a great formation. Lincoln Riley has a tight formation of the field. The tight end down here, they're going to run MIMS on this deep overrout. They've got him except there's a free rusher. Just a total width and protection. Rattler's got to exit the pocket. If he's able to hold the ball, remember, this is a deep down the field crossing route. He's got to hold the football for a moment in order for Mims to clear the linebackers. They've got the look. He's wide open, but he can't sit there and throw the ball from the pocket because they have a breakdown and protection and he's got a free player right in his lap.

That's no good. Then they don't put the second and third level players in conflict. Why? Because they're not effective running the football. Right here. They're trying to get this outside linebacker to squeeze down. Okay, with the play fake in his face, they want him to squeeze down so you can drive the ball on the outside. But now he just stays out there on the hash. He gets width, which is going to force Rattler to throw the football with too much air. He's going to have to layer this ball in there and it allows the corner to break on the route. That trajectory is forced by the fact that the outside linebacker was way further outside than he should be

based on the fact that he's not in conflict because you can't run the ball. If that ball is driven out to the outside shoulder, the corner can't come up and pick that ball off. So that pick was a direct reflection of the outside linebacker being in a spot that he shouldn't be in based on the fact that you can't run the football. So when you can't run the football, you've got no play action game. You can't be explosive down the field. When you can't have play action or run, there's no protection because you're one-dimensional. So we take a look at the opportunities that Oklahoma has to just straight drop back and pass. And this is not where Lincoln Riley wants to be.

This is a third down. And now what you're going to get is you're going to get drop seven and then four guys up front that are just going to get after it. Watch how the Mountaineers attack with just four. First of all, they're going to loop their defensive tackle around. But because there's just one dimension of this offense, the defensive end right here is just going to rip through. Look at the aggressiveness that he works with. As they're running the loop right here, the double team gets totally split by a rusher that has nowherewithal for the running. game. Why? Because they can't run it. He even gets held and he still gets to the quarterback.

But it wasn't just that play. It wasn't just the loop. They've got an inside the 10 yard line ability to score a touchdown and they get the look that they want. It's one-on-one on the outside. If Rattler gets time, he can exploit the one-on-one on the outside and he doesn't get any time. The tackle doesn't kick out because this rusher has no threat of run game so he can just scream around the edge and he gets there and Rattler has no ability to step in that throw or stop. Watch him have to throw off his back foot and a step before he wants to because that rusher is right into its face. If he allows Hazelwood to break out of that and he holds the ball for just a beat longer, that's a touchdown for Oklahoma. See, so here's the problem, folks, is when you go through this chain reaction and you can't run the football, you've got no play action, you've got no protection, you've got no protection.

Guess what? You've got no chance as a quarterback. What's Spencer Rattler supposed to do in those scenarios that I just showed you? Here's the deal. Oh, you fans, I understand you were frustrated. I get it. You've seen great offensive football basically since you've been a fan of Oklahoma. This is one of the great programs in our sport. But the bottom line is you don't chant for the backup quarterback

when you don't know what's actually going on on the field. Spencer Rattler wasn't the problem on Saturday night. I know you wanted to score more points and you just want to take it out on the quarterback, but the backup quarterback's not going to do anything different in those situations. Why? Because he would have had mountaineers in his lap. just like Rattler did. Spencer Rattler was not the problem.

It was the offensive line. If the offensive line doesn't get fixed, then they're going to continue to have these problems. But stop chanting for the backup quarterback unless you know exactly what's going on on the field. Now you do. So maybe you can get on those old linemen rather than your quarterback.

That's still a team that has a lot in front of them and has a very high ceiling. But let's stop chanting for the backup when we don't know what's going on on the field. New blood in the playoff. Is it possible that we could get a team that has never been to the playoff in the playoff this year. Well, it looks like it.

It certainly looks like a year in which we have more parity. We've seen Oklahoma struggle. We've seen Ohio State lose. We've seen Clemson lose twice. I think a lot of people have talked about how that's injected some sort of energy or excitement into the sport based on the fact that we have more teams now that feel like they have a legitimate shot at a playoff berth. So let's look at it.

Let's dive into this and see who are the teams with a legitimate shot? This is the AP top 25, okay? And as we look at the AP top. top 25. I want you to kind of focus on a few areas here. Okay. If you philosophically walk this down, the SEC, clearly their champ is going to get in, and they've got two teams at the top right now that are going to be very tough to beat. I think that the ACC right now has put themselves in quite a predicament where you could absolutely see that their champ, unless weight goes undefeated, probably is not going to get into the playoffs. So where's our best chance for new

blood. That kind of leads me to believe that our best chances in the Big 12, the Big 10, or the group of five. Okay, so let's look at those a little bit deeper. First of all, you've got this great story of Baylor and Oklahoma State. Now, they match up this week. Okay, Oklahoma State's playing great defense. Oklahoma State has not given up over 20 points yet during the course of the year. Now, another issue that Oklahoma State has had is that they're only averaging a little over what 24 points per game so their offense is going to have to pick itself up maybe it does maybe it doesn't by the way baylor they are offensively hitting on all cylinders Dave oranda has done a heck of a job with Baylor but if these two teams keep winning and Oklahoma keeps struggling because Oklahoma is

still up there in the top you know 10 right now and would foreseeably be there if they were able to beat Texas in a couple of weeks or Kansas state this week now you're starting to see that maybe the big 12 champ even if it's not Oklahoma is a team that could potentially get into the playoff. So that's the Big 12 scenario. Now let's look at the the Big 10 scenario. Okay, the Big 10 scenario for me, it happens like this. Ohio State has the loss, but you've got all these other teams that are up there rated highly, Michigan is rated highly, Iowa and Penn State. For me, folks, that Iowa and Penn State, that is a great chance for New Blood into the playoff. Great chance. Now, I can't wait for that matchup next week. Remember, Penn State at Iowa. That's a game that's going to be next week

in Kinnick Stadium. And Iowa's got a tough one on a weeknight this Friday at Maryland. Remember, on the road on a Friday night as a road favorite, that one could be a little bit interesting against a Maryland team that is much better than people think. So that's the Big Ten scenario. You got to think that their champ is getting in. And right now with the way Ohio State looks, you could absolutely see one of those other teams being the champion from the Big Ten and getting into the playoff. Then you start looking at the group of five. If there's going to be a group of five team getting in the playoff, this is going to be the year. Because remember now, you've got teams at the top, you know, your OUs, your Ohio State, your Bamas, your Georgia's, they have guys go to the

NFL regardless. What do the group of five have and some of these other teams? They've got super seniors in COVID year. Okay, so they've been able to develop these guys. They've got more experience than what they normally have. And I think that's paying huge dividends. So now Cincinnati's got a chance to match up with Notre Dame. And if they beat Notre Dame, they're going to be in a great position as these other teams knock themselves off. Remember, Penn State and Iowa play each other next week.

Remember, Georgia's got Florida in a few weeks. Alabama has got a play old miss. You know, Arkansas and Georgia this week. As they knocked themselves off, Cincinnati. Cincinnati, if you beat Notre Dame, you might be in. If there's going to be a year for a group of five team, I think that this is it. So that should make BYU and Coastal and Fresno State very excited.

The problem for those other three teams is Cincinnati, because Cincinnati has got that two-year runway that I talked about earlier. If we're going to get new blood into the playoff, I really think it rests not completely, but on three teams. You've got Penn State, you've got Iowa, and you've got Cincinnati. Those are your best positioned teams to potentially get into the playoff as new blood that have never been there before. Arkansas fans might be a little upset at me, right?

Hey, what about Arkansas? They beat Texas. They beat Texas A&M. You still got to go and you've got to take down some big boys. You got to take down some really big boys. That's why I didn't talk about some of these teams like Florida and Arkansas and even Old Miss. It's because you still got to go knock off Alabama and Georgia. Do we really think that's going to happen?

Probably not. Pack 12, you're sitting pretty. Oregon is sitting there. And even with a loss in UCLA, if UCLA could take care of business, match up with Oregon in a couple weeks, maybe beat them twice. I think UCLA could even get themselves in there. So we're starting to see this kind of play itself out where we've got some fresh blood in college football vying for a potential playoff birth. And I think that that is absolutely great for the sport.

The Dr. Pepper Tuition giveaway is back to enter for a chance to compete for up to $100,000 upload a TikTok using I deserve tuition contest and the official sound sweet tuition to show why you deserve tuition. Let's take a look at a little social media. Yeah, why don't we? Because, you know, it's always just like sunshine and rainbows on social media. So what are people saying to your boy, hey, classified art comes in with, you can't look at me with a straight face and tell me, oh, you and Ohio State belong on here. OU and Ohio State belong on here. Key, straight face. So I literally can. And who's beating them?

Oregon? I guess. That'll do it for me today here on Breaking the Huddle. Remember, we got a huge matchup. Wisconsin hosting Michigan at the big noon Saturday game. Big noon kickoff is going to be live from Madison. That is at 10 a.m. Eastern time. Can't wait for that one.

Going to be a defensive showdown as the Wolverines and Badgers clash there in Camp Randall. That'll do it for me. This show is brought to you by Dr. Pepper. Remember it is the one fans deserve.