The Jordan Harbinger Show - 944: Zach Weinersmith | Out-of-This-World Hurdles to Colonizing Mars

Episode Date: January 23, 2024

What hurdles must humanity face before it can inhabit the final frontier? A City on Mars co-author Zach Weinersmith is here to ground us with the facts. What We Discuss with Zach Weinersmith:... How tethered to reality are Elon Musk's grand plans for the human colonization of Mars? Shouldn't we focus on ensuring the sustainability of our current world before investing in centuries-long efforts to squeeze life out of a dead planet? With current technology, how well can human bodies be protected against prolonged exposure to radiation, extreme temperature fluctuation, and lesser gravity on the Red Planet and the Lunar surface? The economics of farming, mining, and extracting resources in space. The political, legal, and ethical considerations of space colonization. If now's not the most prudent time to hurl our species into the cold, uncaring void, then when? And much more... Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/944 This Episode Is Brought To You By Our Fine Sponsors: jordanharbinger.com/deals Sign up for Six-Minute Networking — our free networking and relationship development mini course — at jordanharbinger.com/course! Like this show? Please leave us a review here — even one sentence helps! Consider including your Twitter handle so we can thank you personally!See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This episode is sponsored in part by Conspiruality Podcast. You know how I'm always talking about critical thinking and spotting manipulation? Well, there's a podcast that's all about dismantling new age cults, wellness grifters, and conspiracy mad yogis, basically the wild overlap of spirituality and misinformation. It's called the Conspiruality Podcast. The hosts, a journalist, cult researcher, and a philosophical skeptic, dive deep into how this stuff spreads, from Project 2025 and the Heritage Foundation's dystopian vision of the future to how former leftists get pulled into far-right conspiracies.
Starting point is 00:00:31 An interesting episode to check out is called Speaking Truth to Goop, where Jen Gunter breaks down the pseudoscience behind the wellness industry in a way that is super entertaining and eye-opening. It's sharp, funny, and makes you a lot harder to fool, which, if you listen to this show, you know I'm all about that. From exploring cults to analyzing our cultural and political landscape, the Conspiratuality Podcast will help you stay informed against misinformation and resist fear tactics.
Starting point is 00:00:54 Find Conspirality on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and wherever you get your podcasts. Coming up next on the Jordan Harbinger Show. What's called microgravity, just you can think of it as no gravity. Reliably, that does all sorts of bad things to your body. Notably, you lose something like 1% of bone density in your hips per month.
Starting point is 00:01:13 You also lose muscle strength very quickly. You reliably lose vision in space. This is one of the lesser known things about space is that people are actually sent up with glasses to adjust to the expected vision loss and that doesn't come back. It's just a thing that happens. in space.
Starting point is 00:01:31 Welcome to the show. I'm Jordan Harbinger. On the Jordan Harbinger show, we decode the stories, secrets, and skills of the world's most fascinating people and turn their wisdom into practical advice that you can use to impact your own life and those around you.
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Starting point is 00:02:15 Just visit jordanharbinger.com slash start or search for us in your Spotify app to get started. Today on the show, my friend Zach Weiner-Smith on growing up being bullied because of your last name. No, I'm kidding. Sorry, Zach. Today we're actually going to be talking about colonizing space. Is it possible to colonize the moon? What about Mars?
Starting point is 00:02:32 What problems will humans face living off of the Earth? How do we create a biosphere, for example? You know a place where people can live without dying immediately? How do we generate power? How do we get enough food? How do you raise a family? What type of government will we have? What about like asteroids and space junk radiation?
Starting point is 00:02:49 There's so much to think about when making these bold leaps, or as they are right now, bold statements, about how humanity may one day expand outwards from the earth and beyond. So we're doing a deep dive today into the details of what that might look like here on the show with Zach Weiner-Smith. Here we go. Zach, thanks for doing the show.
Starting point is 00:03:10 This topic is quite interesting, and it's all the rage, right? You get Elon saying we're going to colonize Mars. He's like, I'm going to die on Mars. Still time for that, I suppose. But probably not in the way that he thinks in a thriving metropolis of a city on Mars, I would say. This is a terrible way to begin an interview, but your last name is Viener-Smith. which it's weiner weiner oh it's not even like okay because if you look at the german it would be
Starting point is 00:03:36 viner smith that would be nice right if that would be nice that was kind of where i was going with this i'm just thinking like man first grade bullies seldom split that hair between well it's actually if you go by the german it's wintersmith so we shouldn't shove them in a locker right now well no so my my maiden name is weiner kelly's last name was smith and we we thought this was funny and my nine-year-old is just realizing that it's funny it's still funny for her now. What happens in three years is going to be interesting. Okay, because I was thinking it doesn't even make sense, right? Because Vienna just means somebody who's from Vienna, essentially.
Starting point is 00:04:11 Right? But then Smith is what it sounds like, like a blacksmith or somebody who smiths something. So I'm like, who's smithing people from Vienna? It doesn't sound like a real... But then I looked at my own name and I was like, there's no sense to any of this crap anymore anyway. You're not a harbinger of anything? Yeah, like, I mean, maybe, but also like... You really have to stretch the definition out in order to make the shoe fit.
Starting point is 00:04:33 So I don't know. I just remember reading this and I was like, of course these guys are space geeks because, you know, how far away for these boys could I get? Mars sounds good. That's right. No, the old joke is the reason astronauts all come from Ohio is they're trying to get as far away as possible. From Ohio. That actually makes a lot of sense.
Starting point is 00:04:53 As a guy from Michigan, I get it. All right. Let's talk about colonizing Mars slash space in the first. because, again, it's an exciting prospect, but I know you're going to rain on our parade, which is fine. I think a reality check every now and then is probably a good idea, especially because, look, no shade on Elon. The dude's done some amazing stuff from SpaceX to Tesla, and I was an early-ish investor in Tesla, and that turned out really great. And so, look, no shade on the guy. He's done some amazing stuff. But there's also stuff where it's like, I paid for
Starting point is 00:05:26 a self-driving car, and I'll be damned. I drove that thing myself, the last, well, forever. I've never had it drive me anywhere. Some of that is because I'm scared and some of it is because it doesn't work that well, right? And the Mars thing seems like another, hey, we're going to do this. It's going to be within 50 years. And then in 200 years, we're going to be like, so we thought it was going to be 50 years. But now we're saying within 30 years, we're definitely going to start doing that. And it's going to be like, wait a minute. This is my great grandfather wrote about this as a thing that almost seemed like it was happening now, and we're just building the launch vehicles, that's kind of how this looks to me now, after reading your book especially.
Starting point is 00:06:04 Yeah, yeah. So let me give you the positive case before I come in with the bummer. Sure. The positive case would be essentially that the launch technology really has been revolutionized. There are some people who, because Elon Musk is kind of a jerk, especially when he gets on his personal social media network, want to make it out that he's just a grifter all the way down. but SpaceX has been genuinely revolutionary new technology. It's an idea that's been around since the early days of space,
Starting point is 00:06:30 which is reusable rockets, and they actually got it done before, like, every space agency in the world. And they actually drop the prices. You can actually look at the prices of, like, space launch going back to the 40s. They dropped drastically in the early space age, and then they just absolutely hit a plateau. They arguably get even more expensive. So, like, you know how everyone was miserable about space from, like, 1980 to 2015?
Starting point is 00:06:51 All the dreams died. That's why. the price stayed high, but it started collapsing. And that's mostly down to SpaceX. So that's the case for optimism. We really are going to be able to do a lot more in space. So it is getting cheaper and cheaper to launch things into space. That's great.
Starting point is 00:07:06 And I know there was that plateau for a while. Can you give us an idea of how the cost of putting things into space has dropped over the years? Maybe you can choose like a household item. You know, to mail or mail, to send this mug to space would have been like 10 grand in 1968. And now it's like $4. I don't know. Why does that look? That's actually not too far off.
Starting point is 00:07:25 The number we used to always give, like, 10 years ago was $10,000 a pound, which, like, one way to say it would be an apple seed would cost about $10 to send to space. Wow. Right. So it's zany expensive. Under SpaceX, I mean, you know, without getting into the weeds, because it can be very hard to make comparisons between depending on what you're doing. But, like, now it's more like 1,000 to 3,000 per pound, something in that range, depending on what you're doing, right? Okay. So it's like genuinely a change.
Starting point is 00:07:49 Right. It's dropped 70 to 90%. Yeah. That's really. amazing. But it seems like we need it to get to 99.9% cheaper before it's like, yeah, let's send a skyscraper up with a rockets attached to it or whatever the plan is. Yeah, I think that's probably right. You need it to keep getting cheaper. But I will say, you know, it's worth noting the cheapness opens up other stuff. So if you look at the James Webb Telescope, part of why those things are so
Starting point is 00:08:14 expensive is they have to be crammed. Every last bit of mass is precious in these fairings. So you get to a world where you have much bigger ships that are much cheaper, you can do a lot more off-the-shelf stuff, and you can, like, waste more space. I see. Yeah, so there is a whole economy. I'm trying, this is the optimistic side of this. This is why people are really geeked out
Starting point is 00:08:30 is because there genuinely is a change happening. This makes sense, though, because that almost went over my head, so I'm going to assume that some people maybe didn't pick up on that. So right now, you've got to pack this massive satellite, a delivery vehicle, and all the tech and all the solar panels that unfurl and whatever into the smallest possible package. that's the lightest possible to launch it.
Starting point is 00:08:51 So you're using all these, well, space age materials, super expensive stuff. Hey, we need a custom XYZ widget that fits into this tiny little space and this weird thing because this is all we have left. And they're like, great, we'll make it for $10 million. But once it gets cheap enough, it's like, no, we're just going to buy a bunch of spaceproof Apple, Mac Studio computers and shove them in a rack and then launch those.
Starting point is 00:09:14 And that's like, oh, that's a million dollars instead of a million dollars for the piece that holds the thing. together. Yeah, exactly. And in addition, you know, you take Starlink, for example, you could estimate, roughly speaking of this new giant rocket SpaceX is working on called StarshipWorks. You could launch something like, say, three or 400 minisats per launch. So you're now also getting economies of scale. So it really is, I don't want to take anything away from this aspect of it. This is like amazing stuff that's happening that is really world changing. Yeah, that part, I want to keep it optimistic, right? Because even though we're going to poke holes in the balloon slash rain on the parade, whatever metaphor we want to
Starting point is 00:09:49 use, I don't want people to be like, oh, we're never going to space. Because never's a long time. Right. And it's frankly, almost, one thing that I will say, Elon and all the other pro space folks have done is, if you'd ask me like 20 years ago, if we were ever going to colonize space, I would be like, absolutely not, definitely nothing in my lifetime. And I don't mean a city on Mars. I mean like, anybody. I'd be like, no, it's just science fiction. Now I'm thinking, okay, we just maybe a pause in global hostilities would be great and some resource dedication to this, but it's not impossible. There's just ways to do this that didn't exist and certainly were not in my mind a couple
Starting point is 00:10:28 of decades ago. And that's more important, I think, than people realize is once you get people to believe that something is possible in large numbers, people who are talented start going into those fields when they're kids and they start studying this stuff. And then you get this critical mass of people that are like, we can do this. And that's how stuff like this gets done, period, I would imagine. Yeah, 100%. I mean, I really think, you know, part of why space settlement is the thing that's talked about a lot is it's very inspiring. And it helps to get a lot of young, talented engineers to want to come to work at a place like SpaceX, even though the like work hours are notoriously brutal and difficult.
Starting point is 00:11:03 Yeah, a couple of ex-Spacex friends and they're like, you don't understand. Like, I work at Apple now. It's way more chill. And if you know anybody who works at Apple, they're like, what are you talking about? Apple is not chill at all. But SpaceX is something else. So if the bottleneck isn't cost, what is it? It's something else. What is it? Yeah, I would say it's a variety of things. So I'll give you an example of one that to us is very important, which is we know almost
Starting point is 00:11:28 nothing about whether humans can reproduce in space. We actually, strictly speaking, don't even know if humans can mate in space, though. I'd say it's almost certainly yes. But conception, development, everything you have to do to have a civilization, right? Not just like an outpost, like an Antarctic base type of thing. Okay. We don't know how to do that. The science, like, there's a tiny amount of science that's been done on space stations.
Starting point is 00:11:49 It's totally unsystematic. It's like we have one thing with six rats over here and a thing done on quail legs over here and some, like, you know, livestock sperm was sent to space over there. But we don't have a kind of, like, program to answer this question. Right. I'm imagining recruiting a space program and they're like, what are we going to be doing? And they're like, you guys are going to be banging a lot. And filming it.
Starting point is 00:12:11 And sending it to all of us for analysis. It's like, I don't know how many people are signing up for that. You know, I was never able to track it down, but there's a persistent story, which is probably not true, but in the waning days of the last Soviet space station, when they sort of lurched into hyper-capitalism, there was a proposal to shoot a pornographic film on Space Station mirror. But there are legends that crop up all over the place with this stuff. There's a persistent legend that someone summarized head sex in space.
Starting point is 00:12:37 We disagree about this. Kelly thinks it's probably happened. I think it probably hasn't. but it's, you know, one of those questions for the ages, I guess. But is the whole thing is that it's not like there's got to be almost no area of that whole thing that's not monitored. So if they're watching you do all this other stuff, I guess if you can really get over the fact that somebody's watching you live at 24-7, I don't know, it seems a little unlikely. But who do what do I know? What do I know? All right, let me back up a little bit.
Starting point is 00:13:02 Yeah. I know one of the bottlenecks is creating a biosphere. Yes. Tell me, well, first of all, what is a biosphere and what is the problem here? Because we've made biospheres on Earth, right? The biosphere, too. I remember that. I remember the crappy Polly Shore movie of the same name. But why is this so difficult? What are we missing from that? Yeah, yeah. So to explain what it is and why you would want it. So a biosphere also called a closed loop ecology, but the basic idea is you have a sort of sealed bubble. And inside it, you put plant, animal, bacterial life. And it's just self-sustaining. It doesn't turn into like goo, right? It doesn't die off, doesn't get out of control in some way. It just exists. and does all the stuff that Earth does for you, right? You generate oxygen, the plants absorb carbon dioxide, and you have these loops, these ecological loops. The reason you want that in space is because space is awful everywhere without exception. The moon is just terrible.
Starting point is 00:13:55 There's obviously no air, but also the ground is trying to kill you. The soil can't make plants. Mars is similar. It has other problems. And so really what we're talking about, we're talking about putting a city on Mars, any kind of habitat on Mars, is that you have to have one of these ecologies inside it. like a self-contained fake ecosystem that is not directly interacting with the outside world,
Starting point is 00:14:15 right, except in the sense of maybe absorbing like mass in that dirt from Mars could say, would a lot of work be ameliorated to be brought into the system? But mostly you're trying to not have a strong interaction other than to get sunlight. So can we do this? It's been a question that's been around since the 60s. The Soviets did some work on it that was kind of inconclusive. And then there's been a few experiments here and there. And the biggest one by far is the one you mentioned.
Starting point is 00:14:40 called Biosphere 2. And by the way, there was no Biosphere 1. Biosphere 1 is Earth. They were being a little cheeky about it. Oh, I wondered about that. I'm like, we never hear about the first one. It must have just been a short-lived project. Whoops.
Starting point is 00:14:52 Okay, that explains it. Okay. Yeah. They did have prototypes. So it was run by this kind of crazy guy. He's still alive, I think. He's named John Allen. It's kind of like a Steve Jobs before you could be Steve Jobs,
Starting point is 00:15:02 like a guy who talks in tech speak about kind of crazy stuff, but also does big projects. And so hence, like, the kind of artsy quality to the project. But essentially what it was is you had the facility that was about the size of three football fields, and it was sealed. And eight humans went in, and they survived for two years. And in that sense, it was quite successful. The downside is at one point, they were suffocating. The system was absorbing oxygen out, and they didn't know that.
Starting point is 00:15:29 They couldn't figure out where the oxygen was going. It's a really weird thing to have in a sealed system for oxygen just to disappear. Yeah. Yeah, it just turns out the structure was absorbing it, like, chemically. Wow. Also, they were, like, starving. They lost, I think, 10 to 18% of body weight, and they weren't like chubby people. You can look at pictures like they were just running out of food.
Starting point is 00:15:45 They weren't making it fast enough. And there were other problems I get into. They also were fighting, by the way, they didn't speak for like a year. There were two factions of four that hated each other. Oh, my God. Yeah, there's a story at one point that got so bad. Two people, for one side came and spit on a woman. I think it was two people at separate times the same day.
Starting point is 00:16:00 It was like a coordinated strike. Coordinated spitting. This is like a Seinfeld episode or something. Only scientists, you should know better. But I guess if you're starving and possibly suffocating and you've been with the same people for two years and you weren't sure how, yeah, I can, I'm not a guy you want to put in a biosphere. Let me put it that way. Definitely not. 100%. I wouldn't want to do it either. You can only say it was a qualified success and there could have been more going on. They only did one other run that got called off short because there was like financial mismanagement in fighting. Fun fact, by the way, that one of the guys who helped get it back or take over and finish the project off was Steve Bannon. It's like an early. Wait, the Steve Bannon that we're currently seeing with the bad guy? That one, yeah.
Starting point is 00:16:41 Okay. There is no more to that fun fact. It's just one of the weirdest little Steve Bannon suddenly pops into my space science story and then leaves the scene. They're like, this has to be a different Steve Bannon, right? I did look, I did check. I'm sure you did because otherwise you're like, wait a minute. I mean, I'm still mentally double-taking from that. That seems so off-brand.
Starting point is 00:16:59 Well, okay, but it was in the context of being part of a financial firm. Okay, I see. Sheesh. All right. But anyway, so that basically called off. We have some data from it. The people who worked on it still work on some of this stuff. But since then, there's just been small scale experiments like in Europe and Japan and China.
Starting point is 00:17:15 And that's it. So the max scale we have is eight people, right? So if you're talking about a million people on Mars who need to be supplied by a system like this, if it scales, if it's like the same size, right, eight people need three acres, then you're talking about a greenhouse the size of Singapore to sustain this civilization on Mars. So the scale is insane. Yeah. Wow.
Starting point is 00:17:35 Yeah. And that's like if everything goes right, because it sounds like if they were running out of food, there's just a lot that can go wrong. You don't want to be like, we have exactly enough food, not a pound more for the right number of people. It's just like that's, no, you want a nice little buffer there. 100%. And so, for example, on day one, I believe, a biosphere, one of the women in the program,
Starting point is 00:17:55 I think it was Jane Pointer cut off the tip of her finger in a threshing machine. And when you're not on Mars, you can actually, they let her leave the sim and go to a hospital because there was no hospital in the building. There was, you know, first aid, and they put her fingertip back on. There was other stuff, too. Like, they were just drawing power off the grid. They didn't have to build their own greenhouse like you would on Mars, you know. So there's stuff like that.
Starting point is 00:18:14 Of course, there might be benefits to scale. It might be easier to run the system if it's much larger. We just don't know. And that's the big problem here is we don't know. And getting an answer to a question like that, like, how does an ecosystem evolve over time at different scales? It is a really tricky scientific problem that will take a long time to get, and nobody is spending much money on it. That is quite interesting.
Starting point is 00:18:33 There's a lot of other little problems, too, that I took some very choice notes. This is a very difficult endeavor. And I heard you say, and I love this, by the way, going to Mars because the Earth is messed up would be like leaving a messy bedroom to go live in a toxic waste dump. That's how incompatible Mars, for example, is with human life compared to Earth. Yeah, yeah. I think it's really important to hit on this because I think people watch movies and you get the idea that Mars is kind of like, okay, it's like not great, but it's kind of like
Starting point is 00:19:01 Arizona minus air or something, right? But it turns out there's just lots of stuff you can't see in those movies or that doesn't get portrayed. And so, like, for example, about 1% of Martian soil is a chemical that messes up hormones. And so we don't know what long-term exposure to it does to adults. But what's really scary is you want to talk about reproduction. Like, what's that going to do to a developing child? Highly unclear, you'll obviously want to not have it, but that's going to be a huge amount of work. And one thing we know, one of the most important findings from Biosphere, from the experiments by the Soviets, and other. ones is that the people in these systems spend all their time just surviving. I think in biosphere
Starting point is 00:19:36 it was like six hours, or I'm sorry, six days a week, we're spent running the farm just to have enough to eat while starving and to drink and all that. And so, you know, if you're going to also have to be cleansing the soil and, you know, running your own power plant, you get in excess of 24 hours very quickly. There's other bad stuff about Mars too. I mean, so there are worldwide dust storms from time to time. That's despite the atmosphere being quite thin. So you still die if you go outside without a pressure suit. But there's enough atmosphere to whip up stuff storms that blot out the sun, which is really bad for solar panels, presumably.
Starting point is 00:20:07 Oh, yeah. It's going to be embarrassing. So... Yeah. I would say so. If the perchlorates in the soil don't destroy your thyroid and make you stop growing when you're four years old, the lack of solar energy for days on end or weeks or however long those storms last, that could be
Starting point is 00:20:22 a problem. I can see that being a problem. Where do we get energy then? Because if solar panels are sort of on off, and by the way, is Mars 2 far for solar panels that we have now to generate an appropriate amount of electricity? That's a really good question. So it is not, but it is pretty far, right? So I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe it's, you get something like half as much solar power per panel on the surface of Mars. It's a little complicated because you're farther out, but the
Starting point is 00:20:48 atmosphere is thinner and blah, blah, blah, blah. But the problem is, so theoretically that could be okay. And also because Mars has days that are weirdly earthlike, they're about 24 hours, I think, 24.7. You would have a day-night cycle and you would have light, but when you can expect regularly to lose your solar power for weeks at a time, it's like you either have to have an insanely good battery system or you need some other regular power source, right? And so fossil fuels are out. There are no fossils on Mars unless there's a big surprise awaiting us. So you can't really do wind. There have been some zany proposals, but because the atmosphere is so thin, I think they'd have to be just these gigantic, mega-huge structures. You could maybe, you know, tap underground heat like we don't want to.
Starting point is 00:21:28 Earth. Geothermal. Yeah. That is apparently literally possible on Mars, but it's thought to be quite difficult. I mean, you try to imagine setting up a geothermal system where there's no air and you're in these like wastes outside. Yeah. You'd have to be able to drill towards the core of a planet while also basically being in space at the same time. Exactly. Yeah. So it's like literally possible. So usually we say that the best option until like some sci-fi stuff happens is you have a good old fashion nuclear reactor. You ship up some uranium or plutonium, you run your reactor. And for all the downsides to that that some of your audience is imagining, it is a kind of like power source in a box that works night or day. As one of the upsides, you're already kind of going to be bathed in radiation.
Starting point is 00:22:09 Yeah, least of your concerns. I was going to say the radiation thing, like at this point, it's like a smoker being like, I think the jackhammering outside that bad for my health. That's exactly right. Yeah, yeah. So I mean, you know, probably what you do is you go out some distance from your habitat, you dig a hole and you put it in there. You'll still have to have people to operate it and stuff. But when you compare that to having to like clean like acres and acres and acres of solar panels in like doom, it's just probably the best option until some sort of, you know, crazy sci-fi tech comes along. I'd like to highlight your earlier point, which is colonizing Mars is not a solution for a messed up Earth. And I like this for a few reasons. One, I think a lot of people are like,
Starting point is 00:22:48 climate change can't do anything about that. Plastics in the ocean can't do anything about that litter and garbage and lack of recycling and big oil and all this other can't do anything about that. It's fine. We're going to go to Mars. And it's like, again, you're leaving a messy bedroom for a toxic waste dump. This is not just like the, oh good, we get a second crack at things. It's not really like that. We joke. Like if you had Earth, we actually looked up, what is the worst case climate change scenario anyone's predicting? Take that and like add nuclear war and any other catastrophe like, I don't know, like there's a hole in the earth and demons are pouring out. That's still a planet where you can breathe. And where like...
Starting point is 00:23:25 They have gravity. They have gravity. Gravity's nice. We haven't even gotten into that the lack of gravity probably has all sorts of bad long-term effects we don't even know about. So yeah, any idea that anywhere in the near term space is going to save us from any calamity is absurd. It's just too hard, too expensive. And also just the general idea that we're going to be launching like millions, billions of tons of stuff to space, requiring hundreds of thousands of skyscraper-sized rocket launches. every day, and that's going to improve the environment, is just absurd. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:23:56 It's unlikely, let's say. I'm sure there's some space nerd who's angry at me right now. Well, basically the sub-name of this show, the subtext of this show is pissing off bunches of listeners for things you'd never imagine. Like, I get it. When I do an episode where somebody's like, hey, plastics in the ocean art is being of a problem as we thought, you shouldn't let this guy say his thing. I get why people are angry about that.
Starting point is 00:24:15 I understand why when somebody says Hamas is not a terrorist organization, people are angry about that. I'm angry about that. But the thing that's going to trigger someone in this episode is going to be something that you and I both think is completely benign. That's how this works. Yes. That's how this works.
Starting point is 00:24:29 So don't even try to not piss people off. It's not worth it. Yeah. No, I think what I found is all ideas about going to space are kind of bound up with utopianism. Like, whatever you think is wrong with Earth will be better over there because you can get a clean break with your people and fix it all. And it's just like, there are all sorts of different scenarios and they just don't hold
Starting point is 00:24:48 up because humans are just going to be people over there only, like, surrounded by poison. Yeah. And unfortunately, surrounded by other people. Yes. Which is what happened in Biosphere, too, which seems like it was a big problem. And, in fact, I know you've said that space settlements might actually favor autocratic, authoritarian governments. That is a really interesting point that makes perfect sense to me, because it's probably
Starting point is 00:25:14 going to have to start off basically like a military outpost. Just because the stakes are so high, you can't have people being like, I got freedom of poking holes in the wall if I want to. You can't do that. You have to have people that are all rowing in the same direction if you're going to survive in space. But, and this is nerdy, but it reminds me of, there's a call of duty, which is a video game. There's an installment where the Mars settlement defense force essentially attacks the Earth because they're like, hey, we don't need these guys anymore. We have our own planet. We got our own thing going. It's a totalitarian military regime along the lines of, I guess, maybe Sparta or whatever.
Starting point is 00:25:48 I'm a little less worried about Mars' settlement defense force attacking us. That scenario is a little out of mind. But I think you might be right about autocracy in a place like Mars or in space anywhere, at least for the first few slash several generations of humans there, because how else are you going to function? How else are you going to create a society like that? And it's tough growing up in an environment like that, ask anybody who defected from North Korea, for example.
Starting point is 00:26:11 And it's going to be tough to transition to what might look like. a functioning democracy from authoritarianism because those values have to be there somewhere behind the scenes. And I'm not sure how you do that unless you have really good contact with Earth the whole time. Right. Yeah, I think there's a good case for that. There's a scholar named Charles Kakel who writes a lot about this, about like, as an example, if you're living in a built structure on Mars, there is some source of oxygen under somebody's control in a way that's just not true on Earth, right? No matter, like the worst company town you can imagine. like your boss didn't have control over oxygen.
Starting point is 00:26:48 The closest analog sometimes uses submarines, and we actually did. We rent some submarine books, and we found a case of a guy who at least claimed he tuned the oxygen up or down to, like, adjust mood in the submarine. So, like, apparently people are capable of this sort of thing. I mean, you hear it from casinos,
Starting point is 00:27:04 and it's not true, apparently, though. Yeah. I can see that. I mean, he who controls the spice controls the universe. That's a sound bite I should have gotten for this show. But it's, if you want to put down a report, belly in one corner of your space settlement, all you have to do is be like, well, I'm turning the air off if you guys don't calm down. I mean, that'll do it. Yeah, yeah, you could even,
Starting point is 00:27:22 I mean, you know, if you want to get really nasty, all you have to do is crank the CO2 level up to about one, one and a half percent, people start get headaches. And so you can, you can give them carcin and just make them chill. Oh, yeah. So yeah, I know it is a problem. And then that's the question is like, you know, it's one thing, if a bunch of people want to voluntarily go live this lifestyle by all means. But if they decide they want to have children, then it seems to me to be like an ethical nightmare that should probably be stopped. I mean, this is something we get into because sometimes we'll talk about, like, well, we have concerns about, like, ethical things.
Starting point is 00:27:52 And so we'll say, well, you're just a bunch of ninnies. And me and Elon are going to Mars, and you can't stop us. And you shouldn't be able to stop us. And to which I say, like, if you just want to personally go and hurt yourself, that's awesome. Have an adventure. I would like to watch the movie. I like reading about, like, Arctic Explorers.
Starting point is 00:28:08 They're kind of crazy, but awesome. But if you're talking about, like, having children or setting up some kind of rival state structure, these sorts of things. then there's a conversation to be had about what the rights of other people on Earth are. You're listening to The Jordan Harbinger Show with our guest, Zach Weiner-Smith. We'll be right back. If you're wondering how I managed to book all these great authors, thinkers, and creators every single week, it's because of my network, and I'm teaching you how to build your network for free over at six-minute networking.com.
Starting point is 00:28:37 I know networking sounds gross. You don't want to do it. This is not cringy. It's down to earth. Pardon the pun, as for the episode. So there's no awkward strategies or cheesy tactics that are going to make you look like a jerk or make the people that you're trying to keep in touch with feel gross about you. It's just going to make you a better connector, a better colleague, a better friend, a better peer. And six minutes a day is all it takes. And many of the guests on the show, they already subscribe and contribute to the course. So come join us.
Starting point is 00:29:01 You'll be in smart company where you belong. You can find the course at six minute networking.com. Now, back to Zach Wienersmith. Can current construction gear even function on Mars temperatures? because I look at construction sites around here, and I grew up in Michigan, I live in California now, and I just thought, wow, these guys out here, they have it much, much easier than they did in Michigan.
Starting point is 00:29:23 They got to go in the winter. And then I thought to myself, okay, the winter, now imagine that's way colder. There's no air, and you'd have to modify the engine, right? You can't run a diesel engine on Mars with no atmosphere, oxygen, whatever, I would imagine. But even then, what about the treads on a bulldozer? What about a crane?
Starting point is 00:29:42 and don't those require certain amounts of gravity to stay put and other. You have to redesign all this stuff, not to mention just temperature stuff, temperature issues. Yeah, so this sort of thing is really important. One of my favorite cranky rants by an astro guy was he was talking about, there were these proposals for melting some of the water on the moon for all sorts of uses. And he was complaining about a proposal that said, you know, we'll use all this water, and here's how we're going to recycle it and all this stuff. It didn't mention that part of getting it involved something like an eight-mile traversed,
Starting point is 00:30:12 through the darkness in like whatever it was negative 200 Fahrenheit on the surface of the moon, which of course has no air among other problems. And there's, I think, a kind of like tendency for people who've never had to do this sort of work to think we can just run some numbers. As an example, we talked to a guy who had worked on lunar rovers and he said a really hard problem is just making a lubricant that can survive alternating between like 600 degrees of Fahrenheit on a two weeks basis as it does on the moon. And so, yeah, I mean, actually, once you start thinking about this, it gets really crazy.
Starting point is 00:30:46 Like, if you have something that depends on a heavy weight dropping, well, you have less gravity, right? So you need more weight to get the same oomph when it slams into the surface. And then you just think about, like, the pressure. So as an example, in a movie, if your buddy has a problem outside the space station, you throw on the pressure suit and you run out. In real life, if you do that, you will get the bends. You will get nitrogen bubbles in your blood because of the pressure change, and you will just die. You actually have to go into an airlock, and there are different ways for doing this, but something like, say, a half hour to an hour has to be spent breathing pure oxygen
Starting point is 00:31:17 to get the nitrogen out of your system. So it's like there's all this stuff that makes sense until you start getting finicky about how it's actually going to work when an actual person has to actually go do the thing. Yeah, that's interesting. I hadn't thought about that. Tell me about this moon thing, 600 degrees Fahrenheit. Does the moon change 600 degrees every two weeks? What is?
Starting point is 00:31:36 I had no idea. Yeah, so the moon on the moon, a day is two Earth weeks, long, right? So meaning like you get 14 days of light, 14 days of darkness. And also no atmosphere, which would kind of spread out the ambient temperature, right? You're just blasted or not. I see. Yeah, so temperatures tend to get really, really, really, really hot, like hot as an oven, and then really, really, really cold, much colder than ice. And so obviously that's havoc for a little rover that needs to survive all these conditions. Also, what we do to get them to survive is you put a little bit of plutonium in there to just keep them toasty. Uh, and uh, when
Starting point is 00:32:10 want that in my pocket, though, as a human, I don't think. Well, you know, if you have enough cladding, maybe. Depend on where you're holding it, but, but, keep it, keep it family friendly. I'm sorry. Yeah, yeah, so you get these huge temperature swings, and it's a real problem for all sorts of reasons. So we go back to like solar power. So you save yourself, well, can we use solar power? Well, it's going to switch off two weeks at a time. The only exception to that is if you set up up at the poles, right? If you're at the north or south pole, you get grazed by the sun most of the time. There are even a couple tiny areas where, like, 95% of the time there's light. But it's very unusual. Most of the moon is not that way. You know, I just never thought about the
Starting point is 00:32:50 temperature on the moon. I guess I just thought it was probably like a brisk morning in Michigan at worst, not like negative 600 degrees or whatever, negative 400 degrees slash 400 plus, whatever it is. I never thought the moon would actually get hot. That for sure is a surprise. Yeah. So that seems miserable. And yes, we're flip-flopping between the moon and Mars, but I guess at this point, what's the difference?
Starting point is 00:33:13 It's mostly just settling space. What about the building materials themselves? You know, my house is largely made out of wood and metal. That's fine when you're talking about maybe zero degrees up to 150 in the most extreme, you know, areas. But now we're talking about negative 200 or negative 300 to positive 300. you can't just build something out of wood or metal. It's just going to melt or shatter or whatever, right?
Starting point is 00:33:38 Yeah, so there are parts of Mars that are a little more temperate near the equator. But if you're going to do the moon, you're going to have these huge temperature swings, the solution is pretty much the same in every mission proposal, which is you need to be under a huge amount of soil. So there are different ways you could do that. You could set a sort of tin can to the surface and just, you know, using the construction equipment we just said would be really hard. You know, a huge pile of what's called regolith, this messed up soil on the moon on top.
Starting point is 00:34:01 And what that does is it just kind of protects you from those big temperature swings, kind of like if you were a mole. A more interesting proposal, which to me is like, separate from whether I think it's a good idea is maybe the most awesome idea, which is the moon isn't really seismically active anymore, but it once was, which meant there used to be flowing lava in places. If you've ever been to Hawaii or I told they had these, yeah, yeah, so you've been like lava tube caves, right? Or maybe. Oh, yeah. They have those on the moon. They have them on the moon, only they're much, much bigger, maybe as much as 100 times bigger. Wow. You could drive any size, well, multiple, a hundred times bigger. That's like a freeway, more maybe even.
Starting point is 00:34:38 To me, it's like if you were going to pick a mission for sheer awesomeness just about anywhere in the solar system, sending somebody into one of these would be top of my list. Wow. But from a settlement perspective, the exciting thing would be instead of like landing a tin can and piling stuff on it or else trying to build stuff out of the surface, you go into this cave and you have some kind of, say, spray on sealant, and you just seal up the cave or a chunk of the cave, and then you pump it full of air and whatever else you need.
Starting point is 00:35:06 And then you've got a little pocket. And now you can just build in there, right? So not everything has to be defended against space. The cave is doing it for you. So that's a pretty typical proposal with the real. That's cool. Yeah, it's awesome, right? I mean, you just talk about, like,
Starting point is 00:35:18 I'm always amazed people who've never heard of these, but my understanding is they were only really understood starting about 20 years ago. There's actually not that much. Everybody gets excited about Mars. there's a lot of scientists who are like, why don't we send more stuff to the moon? The moon is amazing. Yeah, that's, I just had no idea. They were so massive, too, because it's so amazing how big that must be. Because those lava tubes in Hawaii, you can walk through those. Right. Yeah, they're like cathedrals. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:35:41 So something that's a hundred times bigger, you could fit my neighborhood in there. It's really something. Yeah. It's crazy. You can imagine, you know, whole cities. You know, and the only real downside other than, like, it being difficult to get into these things, there's some questions about structural stability, but it's probably fine, is just that there aren't many. And so, you know, where it gets scary is like if the U.S. goes first and then China says, hey, you took the best spot, I don't know, does it get weird? But yeah, if you were going to set up a settlement, that would be one of the cooler places to do it. Well, we'll talk about what get weird might mean, because I have a feeling things will get weird with space. Before we get into that, though, Mars has a bunch of CO2 on it. Plants love CO2.
Starting point is 00:36:21 Is there a fit here? Can we terraform Mars somehow by putting plants that eat the CO2 and make oxygen or is that just going to cause all kinds of other issues? Yes and no. Okay. So setting aside total terraforming for a second and I'll come back to it. The big upside of CO2 is, as you say, plants will take it in, build themselves, and then spit out oxygen, which is just great. On the moon, there is very little carbon in the soil. This is often skipped. So you literally cannot grow plants in it. You can't do it. On Mars, with that CO2, just floating around for the taking, you can grow plants. They can release oxygen. You do need, and I won't get into the chemistry, but you need it. hydrogen source if you want to also get water. But if you have that source, you have water,
Starting point is 00:37:01 you have oxygen. You can even make fuel in the form of methane, which is just a flammable gas, so that you could also use to, like, fuel up a rocket or make fuel for a buggy on the Martian surface. So it's incredibly convenient. In terms of terraforming, meaning turning Mars into at least something like Earth. So I don't think just by having plants, you could do that because the atmosphere is really thin. So even if you cracked all the oxygen out of that CO2, I don't think. think it would be nearly enough. Typical proposals call for something like slamming, like redirecting comets into the poles of Mars or even like a huge amount of nuclear weapons. And the idea there is just you're going to, the poles have water. And so if you spew so much water into the atmosphere,
Starting point is 00:37:42 you'll get a greenhouse effect like we're trying to avoid on Earth, which would be desirable on Mars to some extent. What would that do, though? I'm confused. We would somehow smash a comet or a giant bunch of nukes into Mars. The frozen water would go in the air. and then what? No, no, water vapor is a greenhouse gas. So it vaporizes a bunch of water because of the explosion, and then the atmosphere has water in it. But wouldn't that be temporary, or am I just not understanding how these things are?
Starting point is 00:38:10 So this is getting toward the edge of my expertise. My understanding it would be literally temporary, but it would still be like a million years' worth of atmosphere. So you don't have a little time to work it out. Right, so time to figure, yeah, it buys us some time to figure it out. That's actually really kind of cool. Yeah. Just to think you could do something like that.
Starting point is 00:38:27 I guess you have to do that before you put anything else on Mars because it's going to be like explosion, like the world has never seen to try and do that to a planet. It seems like something else could go wrong. Like, so it worked. But now Mars is on a different orbit and we definitely can't colonize it because it's way further out or something now or it's turned weird.
Starting point is 00:38:46 I don't know. That's one of those geoengineering things where you can't put the toothpaste back in the tube and then suddenly you realize it was a huge mistake and now you've got to solve that problem. Yeah, and there are also there people, and I feel complicated about this, but who would say, you know, we only have one Mars, and it's like a record of everything that's ever happened here. And if we, if we changed it drastically, we would just lose all this, you know, potential information forever. Yeah, that's a valid argument in many ways, I suppose.
Starting point is 00:39:11 That said, the question is, how much do we care about that versus colonizing another planet successfully? I don't know. That's a tough calculation. I think it's a really tough question, actually. I mean, so the moon, to me is the more interesting example, because the moon is the moon is. It's just like a rock. I know that's like a stupid thing to say, but meaning, how dare you? How do you?
Starting point is 00:39:30 Yeah, but like everything that has happened to Earth has happened to the moon, right? It's been there with us for eons and eons and eons and eons. So there are records of what has happened to our planet that are gone from our planet because we have, you know, climate and life and the movement of oceans and things. That information is, so to speak, embedded in the moon. Yeah, fossilized essentially. Yeah, yeah. And so, you know, some of these proposals for tearing up huge parts of the surface of the moon for minerals,
Starting point is 00:39:54 I don't think they're plausible in general, but I do think it's worth considering the scientific aspects. Let's talk about mining, because people talk about asteroid mining, and, well, I'm going to get a bunch of, what is it, helium three from the surface of the, I don't really even know what that is. But tell me about that, the valuable elements of the moon. Why is that not a thing that you think is possible? Right. So there's a couple things going on here. So, yeah, we can talk about moon mining in particular, and then I can try to expand out to the other place. So in order to justify getting something off the moon, it has to be extremely valuable.
Starting point is 00:40:29 Like, it has to be a small thing that's quite valuable because it is so expensive to go to the moon. Even with the modern price drops, like there's a lot of other stuff that has to go on. You still need a spacecraft and a lander and trained people, and it's quite dangerous. In 2017, there's a scientist named Michelle Van Pelt, and I'll get this almost verbatim, but he said something like, if there were bars of gold on the surface of the moon, it would not be worth it to go get them. Really? Wow. So there's just not enough, like, density of value in gold. Maybe if there were, like, you know, diamonds, I don't know what it would take.
Starting point is 00:40:58 But the point is there's not, right? So there's been this desire to find some reason to go to the moon other than it just, like, showing up the Soviets or being generally awesome. And people just haven't come up with that much. I don't think anything that's convincing. You will sometimes hear people say helium three, which without getting into the details, but it does come up a lot. What is it? You know, so there's helium. The usual helium, the stuff you get in a balloon is helium four.
Starting point is 00:41:20 Yeah. Helium 3 just is a different amount of neutrons. It's what's called an isotope. It's just a different form of the same element. But it has certain qualities that make it useful. One, it has medical applications. It's just useful for some screenings we do. But the usual thing people say is that you could use it for a certain type of fusion drive.
Starting point is 00:41:36 And I can get very nerdy about this, but I will just say it's sort of like we already can't do an easier version of fusion that's in a lower temperature. So like scaling up to helium-3 fusion plus adding in that you have to get it from the moon is like showing off or something. It's like doing fusion while doing a backflip. Like, why are we doing this? And so if you want to get really nerdy, there's a paper we talk about in the book. But the basic deal is like, it's for a spacey thing. We probably won't build and don't need to build. And anyway, right now can't build. But also, you can get helium three by other processes on Earth without going to the moon. I think there's just a really
Starting point is 00:42:09 strong desire for there to be some kind of moon economy, because it would be awesome. I think people cue a lot on the age of exploration. Like, they have this idea that it'll be like the 1600s or the 1700s when people sail from Europe to India. But the difference is India was this vast, rich place full of people with awesome stuff, and the moon just isn't. It's a big rock, like you said, so nonchalant, so callously. Sorry, it's a cool rock. Yeah, and then so people, you know, someone out there is saying, okay, shut up about the moon, but the asteroids, there's whatever, $700 trillion worth of iron or whatever people want to say. And in some sense, that is literally true, right? But you could also say that about,
Starting point is 00:42:47 like Earth's core, which is made of iron and nickel. Yeah, there's like 20 trillion tons of gold in the core. I made that number up, but it's something like that. It's just massive. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, so there's more Earth than there is massive asteroids. So almost by definition, there's more value of stuff in the Earth. But the point is, it's definitely has value of it can be got in a profit.
Starting point is 00:43:05 And right now it is extraordinarily expensive. So people have this idea because they watch Star Wars. If you go to an asteroid belt, it's just awash in these big potato-shaped rocks and you need to go get one. actual asteroids tend to be what are called rubble piles. They're these sort of loose agglomerations of dust and rock. They're very hard to capture or land on. Also, if you were on one, to the extent you could be on one with the microgravity, you wouldn't be able to see another one typically.
Starting point is 00:43:28 They're quite sparse on the human scale. And the stuff in them is like regular stuff. There's not like one made of diamonds. The most valuable ones are they have what are called PGM, platinum group metals. So just imagine there's a high concentration of platinum. And so that sounds very tempting, but there's still low concentration. in general, you still have to refine out these rocks to get this platinum. And there's just not that many of these super desirable ones that are relatively getable and
Starting point is 00:43:54 valuable. And so it's just not really a serious industry. Maybe one day, if we're like awesome at space and we want to build giant spaceships, it is handy that there's already mass that's outside of Earth's gravity pole. But that's it. The idea that we're going to get rich because of asteroids, I think is not serious. Yeah, that always sort of struck me as something that didn't make a ton of sense. But I thought, oh, maybe there's stuff on there that we really can't get.
Starting point is 00:44:14 I did some research for an episode on gold, and I just remember the statistic is, there's enough gold in Earth's core to coat every bit of land on Earth with a 20-inch-thick layer of gold. So you don't need to go anywhere other than the core of the Earth for gold. I guess the question is, is it easier to get to the core of the Earth and refine that stuff than it is to go to Mars or to the moon or an asteroid? And honestly, I don't have the answer to that. My gut says yes, but I don't have a clue.
Starting point is 00:44:46 So my guess is not worth anything. The other big thing to note there, though, is if we had all that gold, it would not mean we were all rich, right? Because the value of gold would go to nothing. Yeah, it would crash. Right. So we use the example of like, so if you go back 200 years, aluminum is really valuable. The tip of the Washington monument to this day is aluminum because that used to be fancy. Right.
Starting point is 00:45:04 Right. But then industrial processes has made it cheap. And that's great. Like airplanes use aluminum. The microphone I'm talking to them, I'm sure it uses aluminum. Aluminum is awesome, but it doesn't mean like I have like aluminum foil in my kitchen. It doesn't make me rich. It makes my life better, but it doesn't end poverty.
Starting point is 00:45:19 Look at you showing off with your aluminum. I have aluminum foil in my kitchen. I threw some away yesterday. That's right. I did. This freaking guy. That makes a lot of sense. I mean, gold has industrial uses, especially when it comes to space because it doesn't corrode
Starting point is 00:45:33 and all that stuff. But if you suddenly have another, let's say, trillion tons, you got 5% of the gold out of the Earth's core and you have a trillion tons of it, now it's, You're making Coke cans out of gold because it's so damn cheap. And we're all better off in that world. But the idea that poverty is over or that you can just like take the raw number, whatever that is worth, a quadrillion dollars and say that like it's as if we got that money. It doesn't work that way.
Starting point is 00:45:56 Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. Actually, I'd love to know more about the economics of mining and extracting resources in space because even if, let's say we get a good modular nuclear reactor up there and we're ready to build, where do we get raw materials and building materials, Do we have to ship them from Earth, or are we able to rip stuff out of the ground on Mars or the moon and use that? Is there metal in there? Or is it just like, no, you've got a freaking FedEx this stuff from Alabama like everybody else? Yeah, so if you have to boost it from Earth, that's really bad.
Starting point is 00:46:28 The usual proposals are what's called ISRU in situ resource utilization, just meaning you use local stuff. And there's a kind of danger here, right? Okay, so the moon has titanium, has magnesium, has silicon, has all sorts of stuff. There was a thing that made a splash recently where some people at Blue Origin, which is Jeff Bezos's rocket company, made solar panels using this little machine that used, I guess, you know, moon-like soil. The problem is it's incredibly energy intensive to do a lot of this stuff. I'm not saying it can't be done. It is going to be quite tricky. But yeah, I mean, so part of why we're pro-Mars, if you are going to do a space settlement, is that Mars has everything you need.
Starting point is 00:47:07 So as I said a minute ago, moon is carbon poor. Human bodies are about 20% carbon. Plants are generally higher than that. And for people who don't remember high school physics, you can't just get more carbon. You can't like shape stuff into carbon. Carbon is made in the stars. You have what you have. So if you have to boost carbon from Earth to the Moon, you're just, it's not going to work.
Starting point is 00:47:28 It's like having to boost a farm rather than ameliorating local soil, right? Yeah. Whereas Mars has what you need. Now, I get frustrated sometimes because people will say there's titanium, therefore we can have titanium structures, but like, titanium is really hard to work with, that you actually need a whole sort of industrial facility if you're going to make this work, which is, I'm not saying you can't do it on Mars, it's just going to be extremely difficult. And you know, we never talk about Earth like this. So like, I'm looking at my backyard, there's absolutely some amount
Starting point is 00:47:55 of titanium in the soil here that doesn't mean I can have eye beams made of titanium, right? You know, on Earth, when we talk about getting metals, we find places where it's at high concentration, even for something like aluminum. We look for bauxite as a precursor. And then we say, okay, it's going to be mine in West Virginia, shipped off to China for refining, that is going to get shipped off to three more countries wrapped in plastic every single time to take advantage of their expertise and economies of scale. And you have to transport all that to another planet, which is not, again, not impossible, but just we often forget that, like, the Apple store. doesn't make your iPhone. It's such a good point, actually. So very late in writing this book, we were talking to a developmental economist about this.
Starting point is 00:48:38 So usually when people talk about the space economy, they talk about resources. And he said, you know, you should see this report from the World Bank, which says 97.5% I think it was of all human wealth is not in natural resources, right? And natural resources in the sense of stuff in the ground, not things like rainforest or whatever, right? So about two and a half percent of all of our wealth is that kind of stuff. and actually 90% of that is fossil fuels which don't exist in space. People tend to drastically overestimate the importance of minerals,
Starting point is 00:49:06 I think because you go to the gas pump and it kills you when it's up 50 cents. But then you pick up your iPhone, which is made of like, you know, plastic and a little glass, and it's of extraordinary valuable, and you don't think about how cheap it is. But actually, like, most of the wealth we have is those processes you just described, where you have like factories and you have people with ideas and you have these complex processes for making microships. That's where the money is. You know, the minerals, you've got to have them because stuff has to be made of stuff,
Starting point is 00:49:31 but it's not where most... I feel like this is like one of the most optimistic facts I ever heard. It's like the real wealth humans have is just coming up with stuff and making institutions for building things. That's actually a bonus, right? Because that means... Because we can ship our ideas. That's one of the easier things to communicate or move to another place,
Starting point is 00:49:48 I guess, if you really think about it. But it's not quite all the raw material that we actually need to succeed. You mentioned growing food in space in how difficult this is. I guess quantity would be tough. You mentioned the Biosphere 2 people working on the farm six hours a day just to make starvation level rations. What about actual nutrition? Because let's say you're managing to grow all these plants and whatnot.
Starting point is 00:50:11 Were they growing animals there and slaughtering them and getting enough nutrition? Or was it like they're just existing on soy? That's a great question. So the truth is, I should say, Biosphere 2 probably could have been optimized a lot. So without getting into the details, it was kind of run by these crazy Captain Planet types. Hippies? Beyond hippies, like Proto-Silican Valley, kind of zany. Anyway.
Starting point is 00:50:33 This is the 80s when they ran that? Was it the 80s or the 90s? 90s, but they're part of a group that kind of comes out of the late 60s and early 70s, sort of Proto Silicon Valley. It sounds like some, what is it, Esalin, like Redwood Forest culty types, and they're like, well, let's live in a biosphere. They were called the synergists. They lived on a ranch. You can look it up.
Starting point is 00:50:51 It was like that. Yeah. And so biosphere was about three acres. Only about a half an acre was what's called intensive agriculture. The rest was like biomes. Like they had a ghost forest or ghost desert. I don't really know what it is. They had like a coral reef.
Starting point is 00:51:05 Like I said, it's very captain planet. So by the end, they were actually moving ag stuff into those zones. So there probably was a lot of optimization to do. They did have animals, but they actually had a lot of trouble with animals. So for example, this is a true story. They wanted to have pigs. They were going to have pot belly pigs because pot belly pigs are like a small, manageable pig. But then it was like that period where pot belly pigs were like everybody's favorite pet.
Starting point is 00:51:28 And so they thought the PR would be bad. Oh, yeah. Yeah, they got this other type of pig. I forget from where there was like a pygmy species, but it was just kind of wild and I guess it ran around killing stuff. So they ended up eating them. And so I'd go down the line, they had other problems. At one point, the crew, which was an all-white crew,
Starting point is 00:51:44 and I only mentioned that because they were eating tarot. They're grown tarot. They didn't know how to process it, so they were like slightly poisoning themselves. What is that? Terro, it's a root. Oh, taro. Tarot. I'm sorry, yeah, I'm saying it right.
Starting point is 00:51:55 Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah. No, you're saying it right, and I said it wrong. Tar, yeah, that like potato-y crap that Taiwanese people love to put in their bubble tea. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, it's good stuff. I do not like that, for the record. Don't give me a cheese with tarot in it. No thanks.
Starting point is 00:52:10 My wife loves it. Get a little potato in your drink. Drinking potato, it's, no, what are you doing? You can ruin any meal with that. Potato's included for that matter. Yeah, so yeah, it's funny. You have to process it a little or it's toxic, right? It's just like a lot of foods.
Starting point is 00:52:24 When you get it fresh or raw, it needs a little work. They didn't know that. They were all, I think, American and British, and this was like the 90s before, like, food was good. And they had to actually call someone. They got connected to a guy, like, in Puerto Rico had a recipe. And then it was okay. So there were a lot of kind of, like, little stupid things. So nowadays, if we reran the experiment, probably what you do is have it be almost entirely intensive agriculture,
Starting point is 00:52:50 assuming that could support enough oxygen. And then you might not bring any animals. So as a general rule, the bigger the animal, the less efficient it is at like converting input to output. So in other words, like to get a whole cow worth of meat takes a huge, huge. If you've ever seen cows grazing me just all day long just to get this one cow, it's insane. Whereas if you want to survive off crickets, if you could stomach it, it's much more efficient. Crickets aren't that bad. I've eaten many insects, you know, in Japan or whatever.
Starting point is 00:53:19 It's fine. I wouldn't necessarily want it every day. I wouldn't want anything every day but if I were starving you could eat cricket. If I had to choose crickets or taro, I'm choosing crickets. That is a bold choice. That's the thing that's going to piss everyone off.
Starting point is 00:53:33 That's where the email is going to start emailing me cricket-based foods. And you know what? I'm here for it. Send it to me. I'll send you my address. Yeah, my daughter, when she was four, she tried crickets and she was like,
Starting point is 00:53:43 these are great. The heads are really crunchy. And I was like, I can't even watch you. Roasted crickets. Oh my God. You can eat things like that, though. Like, when I was in Cambodia, I said I was hungry.
Starting point is 00:53:52 and the girls I was with decided to sort of play, I guess you'd call it a trick. They went and they bought me a big paper bag full of tarantulas. There you go. They roasted tarantias. And you know what? They were good. They were really good.
Starting point is 00:54:04 I was quite hungry and possibly a little bit drunk, but I ate a whole bag of tarantulas that they probably bought off the roadside. And God knows where that guy got them. And I didn't get sick. Yeah. You could live on that kind of stuff. In algae and things like that, I would imagine would play a large part in ecosystems like this,
Starting point is 00:54:21 just because it's so here on earth, you grow it by accident, you're trying to get rid of it. Yeah, actually, algae is an interesting one. Yeah, so there was actually a Soviet Union experiment where they tried to live only off, it was a type of algae, I believe, it was called Clorella. And apparently you could literally in some sense do this because they have protein and fat and they make oxygen. But like the people hated it so much, they never did it again because it's just like, nobody wants to live off algae. Yeah. Yeah, so there is something to account for there, which is like, you don't want to optimize
Starting point is 00:54:48 too much because eventually the humans are not happy that they've been optimized on. But yeah, actually, a very typical proposal is to go vegan if people don't want to eat bugs because it's just so much more efficient to grow something like soy than to have animals. But I do think there's like a reasonable trade-off because I am a vegetarian, so
Starting point is 00:55:04 like, you know, I'm down for this, but for a lot of people, they do with that variety. If you go back to old polar missions, like polar explorations in Antarctica where they were like up there for years, it's very important to have variety of like flavor and texture for people to be happy. So there is a of trade off against optimization there.
Starting point is 00:55:23 This is the Jordan Harbinger show with our guest, Zach We're gonna be right back. If you like this episode of the show, I invite you to do what other smart and considerate listeners do, which is take a moment and support one of our amazing sponsors, or preferably more than one. All the deals, discount codes, and ways to support this show are at Jordan Harbinger.com slash deals. If you can't remember the name of a sponsor, you can't find the code. You can email me. I'm Jordan at Jordan Harbinger.com.
Starting point is 00:55:47 I am more than happy to surface that code for you. It is that important. All right. Well, thank you for supporting those who support the show. Now for the rest of my conversation with Zach Wiener-Smith. What about humans being able to live in different gravity? You sort of touched on this earlier in the show. How long has anyone been in space?
Starting point is 00:56:07 Do we know if anybody could live longer than that record? Because I assume it's not 10 years. It's probably like two years or something, right? It's an open question. So the longest day ever was by a cosmonaut named Poliakov. He stayed up for 37 consecutive days. I think the record for total days across multiple missions is somewhere in the 800s. We would have also been done by Soviet cosmonauts.
Starting point is 00:56:28 37 days, that's it? 400370. Oh, 437 days. Yeah, sorry. Okay, I was like 37 days. No, that doesn't sound like that long. Okay, 400. That's still, though, in the scheme of things, not that long, right?
Starting point is 00:56:38 It was up there for a year and change. That's a long time, objectively. But if you're like, we're going to go live on Mars and have a family, that's nothing. It's nothing. So that's in what's called microgravity. You can think of it as no gravity. reliably that does all sorts of bad things to your body. Notably, you lose something like 1% of bone density in your hips per month very quickly.
Starting point is 00:56:59 And so you also lose muscle strength very quickly. Right now, astronauts, they do like two, three hours of exercise six days a week just to kind of keep it from getting worse than that, but it does get worse. You reliably lose vision in space. This is one of the lesser known things about space is that people are actually sent up with glasses to adjust to the expected vision loss. and that doesn't come back. It's just a thing that happens in space.
Starting point is 00:57:22 Wait, you lose vision in your eyes. Why? We don't know. The thought is when you go to space, so your body, right, is used to pumping blood around, and you don't think about it, but it's hard to pump blood from your feet. It's easier to pump blood near your heart, right?
Starting point is 00:57:36 So your body's used to this complex system of pumping blood around this, you know, a person who's, you know, two meters tall pillar of liquid, right? When you go to space, that confuses your body. If you look at astronauts, they often kind of have baby faces. that's because fluid shifts upward, right? So they actually call it puffy face. They also have a term chicken legs, right?
Starting point is 00:57:54 So the fluid comes out of your legs. You can lose something like 30% of your fluid volume in your legs very quickly. Oh, wow. You actually also end up astronauts have to pee a lot because your body gets really confused. All of a sudden there's all this fluid in your upper body. What's going on? Anyway, what that has to do with vision maybe.
Starting point is 00:58:09 I think my understanding is it's still not well understood, but it's possible all that fluid pressure going up is somehow messing with the feeding system for your eyes and it's causing some kind of damage. Wow. Or distortion of the shape, but we don't know. What's extra ominous there is there's equivocal evidence,
Starting point is 00:58:24 meaning just like we don't know for sure, there's maybe some evidence that there are negative cognitive effects. Like you would lose like, so to speak, this is a dumb way to say it, but like you lose a couple IQ points for every so often you spend in space. Wow. Meaning like if that nerve damage is just in the eyes, that's not great but okay.
Starting point is 00:58:38 But if it's some sort of overall nerve damage, that's really freaky if you start to imagine 10, 20, 30 years in space, right? Also, if it's damaging our eyes and we know that because our vision gets worse. What's it doing to my brain that I have no idea is happening? Or my liver or other parts of my body where I'm not like, hey, this is darker and I didn't have that blind spot. That's happening in other areas that you just don't realize, right?
Starting point is 00:59:00 Yeah, not only that, but I would add, so I'm giving you a story about the pressure shift, but other stuff that's going on is you're getting a higher rate of doses of radiation. Yeah, let's talk about radiation for sure. Yeah, yeah. So the short version is when you're sitting down here on Earth, you're protected by the atmosphere from radiation and by the magnetosphere, which is, you know, Earth is a giant magnet, and so it slams these hot ionizing bits of radiation into the poles. And so instead of getting extra radiation, you just get little Aurora shows at the poles,
Starting point is 00:59:26 which is a pretty sweet deal. In the International Space Station, you don't have that. You have some protection there from the magnetosphere. If you go out towards the moon, you don't get that. But so the basic deal is you are generally getting a higher dose of radiation of types you don't normally get on Earth. And there's also some risk now and then. the sun sort of belches out blasts of high-intensity radiation.
Starting point is 00:59:47 And if you happen to be caught in the beam, you could be in real trouble. You could die of acute radiation sickness, which I would just say is one of the worst ways I can imagine dying. It's very unlikely, but it is there. So there's other stuff, right? So the atmosphere is also high in carbon. It's fairly different from an Earth atmosphere. So meaning if we find cognitive decline, it could be from a variety of stuff. It could even be due to persistent stress or combinations of these different things.
Starting point is 01:00:08 We don't know. The one thing I wanted to add is to kind of like push back against my own. point though, this is really important. This is all on the International Space Station where you're in microgravity. On the moon, you would be at something like one-sixth Earth gravity. On Mars, it would be something like 40% Earth gravity. So that might stop or slow down some of the effects, but we just really don't know. What's this about astronauts? They report seeing flashes that people on Earth can't see. What's going on there? That's kind of scary, actually. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So I'm trying to remember, I think the first report from this by an American might have been John Glenn, but don't quote me on it,
Starting point is 01:00:40 but basically just seeing like these little flashes. And it's thought what's going on is just there are parts where you're experiencing these high levels of radiation as you zoom around in orbit. So you, you know, persistently hear stories of people even with their eyes closed seeing these flashes. We're all, we're apes. We're evolved for the surface down here, you know, and space is just not going to behave nicely for us. Wow. So it's almost like, remember back of the day you'd have a cell phone and it would be next to a speaker,
Starting point is 01:01:03 like a radio in your house and it would go, and you go, my phone's about to ring. That's what this reminds me of. Your eyes are picking up some sort of interference that normally when they're not right next to outside the atmosphere closer to the sun or whatever, or a supernova, they don't experience this. But now you're outside of that Faraday cage or whatever that we have on Earth. And you're picking up all kinds of stuff because the antennae are designed to function on Earth, not in space where we would have evolved to, our brain would have just decided we don't see those flashes or whatever. That's right.
Starting point is 01:01:35 It's a good way to say it. Yeah, we're evolved for this. That's really, somehow that's disturbing. that you're getting hit by stuff and you can say, I don't know, that's sort of eerie. And there's going to be a lot of that stuff that they're going to discover, I suppose, when they go to space. So back to radiation on bodies and technology, solar flares are, those things suck on Earth. And I don't, again, I don't know what they are, so maybe explain what they are. But don't they destroy electronics and they can, if we have a big one, it can take the whole grid down and all this stuff?
Starting point is 01:02:02 Yeah, so we put in a little bit there, the story in, I think, 1859. So you sort of imagine the sun just firing off radiation in some direction. And fortunately, space is big. So if you're in a spaceship, it just probably doesn't hit you. But if it does, you're in trouble. And now and then one of these smacks into Earth. So in 1859, there was a really big one. And this is, you have to think, like, early in the age where people are even thinking about electronics, right?
Starting point is 01:02:27 And so there are these stories of, like, telegraph stations just suddenly, like, sparking for no reason. And just problems around the planet with, like, these electrical servers. It's like not great in 1859, and it would be maybe worse now, but it'd be really scary if you were in a technology-dependent habitat on the moon or Mars. And I should say that, you know, the solution to this is almost certainly the same as we talked about earlier, which is just living underground forever instead of in a shining Mars dome, yeah. Oh, my.
Starting point is 01:02:59 How do we shield ourselves from radiation? There's radiation shielding, I guess, but when I go to the dentist, they put that lead blanket over me. That's probably not something you can build over your entire city and space. Yeah. I mean, you know, of course, in principle, you could. Yeah. So part of why lead is good is just lead is very dense, right? So it's hard for stuff to get through. But yeah, so, you know, I said we'll use dirt. There are kind of, you know, more high-tech solutions. There are these special materials that are especially good at absorbing radiation. If you know anything about nuclear reactors, they often use boron to catch neutrons, which are bad stuff if they smack into you. So you can
Starting point is 01:03:33 use boron-related compounds to absorb radiation. The problem is essentially, anytime you're not using local mass, you're having to carry it all the way out of Earth's gravity well or wherever, over to where you're going. So ideally, almost all propose those call for just figuring out some way to deal with the local dirt. If you're in a spaceship, that's a different question again, right? So the trip to Mars is like six months inbound, six months outbound.
Starting point is 01:03:56 I think usually what you'd say is for the radiation that's in the background, you're just going to deal with it and probably some increased risk of cancer. If there's a flare, you could have like a panic room. Like you could have a like a small area that was lined with some sort of protective material. So it wouldn't use up that much mask and everyone would you just sort of run to it until the storm was over. It's kind of terrifying, but it's better than acute radiation poisoning. Right. So an air raid siren would go off.
Starting point is 01:04:19 And instead of grabbing your gas mask, if you're in Israeli, you'll know, right? You'd grab your gas mask. This would be like, oh, we got to go to the radiation room because there's a storm. So everybody's got their little shelter there for that. and the bathroom and, I don't know, some board games or whatever to pass the time. Yeah, yeah, I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe you'd get very short notice because there's, like, going to be some preliminaries from the sun before the ions hit you, but I don't think there's a lot of time.
Starting point is 01:04:45 Yikes. Yeah. Yeah, that's not great. That's not great. I suppose if it doesn't kill you right away, it's just like, ah, I got hit by the last one, but I make it to the shelter 70% of the time. I'm sorry. No, but that's the worst thing about radiation poison is, like, if you get really blasted by radiation,
Starting point is 01:04:59 like some guys did in the early days fiddling with uranium and stuff. Like, you know you're going to die a while before it happens because your tissues are sort of slowly just going to degrade and fall apart. Sloughing off. Ugh, gross. Yeah. Tell me about Regalith. This is what, space dirt? Space dirt, yeah.
Starting point is 01:05:14 So Regulith, it comes from the root words meaning blanket of rock. So, yeah, this is really important. So you look at the surface of the moon and it looks like it's just dust, but it's actually if you put it under a microscope, it looks a lot of it. Looks like little tiny knives, which is not what happens when you do that on Earth. And the difference is that you remember that the moon doesn't have weather, right? It doesn't have running water. It doesn't have life or anything.
Starting point is 01:05:35 So the surface is just kind of naked to stuff. So you imagine like a heavy rock from space, smashes the surface, heats it, fuses it. Then another one comes later. It does the same thing. But now it shatters that, does this over and over and over and over. There's also radiation pelting all this stuff. And you imagine this just going on for eons and eons and eons. So it's much more like shattered glass and rock than it is just like sand on the beach.
Starting point is 01:05:57 The result of that is a couple of things. thing. So the astronauts from the Apollo program landed, they described it almost like it was alive because it was static charged and very clingy, right? So we'd get up in equipment. And when people breathed it in, I remember, I think Harrison Schmidt, who was on Apollo 17, said it was like he had an allergic reaction to it. The concern, and we just don't know, the concern is that if you breathe this stuff long enough, you might get something similar to what's called Stonegrinders disease, which you can imagine how that comes about. But the result of it is intense lung scarification over time means that it basically becomes very hard to breathe, very energy intensive just to breathe.
Starting point is 01:06:34 It's very bad, very awful disease to get. And so it's possible exposure to Regolith is going to do that to you. You can also imagine what effects it might have on equipment. Part of the problem is the grand total of time that people spend walking around the mood is something like two weeks, right? We did it all in a very brief period, not for very long. So we really don't know much about long-term medical effects of this stuff, but it's probably something you do not want to interact with. It sounds like it could get all goopy and possibly get into machinery and things like. I mean, like sand does that too. Yeah, yeah. This sounds almost worse because it's not smoothed out by weather and atmosphere. And I guess if stuff also cakes on, it starts to insulate, which may or may not be a good thing.
Starting point is 01:07:14 I mean, we're talking about using it as an insulator for radiation here, but there's other cases where you don't want that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So part of why spacesuits are white is because that's to reflect heat, right? just like when it's summer and you're told to wear your white shirt, that's the same reason. And so whereas Regolith is this kind of plastery gray color. So if it gets kicked on all over the suit, you can get heating problems, and that's dangerous. And yeah, there's a story, I forget which Apollo mission it was, but they landed and they actually picked up a robotic probe that had been sent years earlier. It was called Surveyor, I think the Surveyor 3.
Starting point is 01:07:45 And they said it looked like it had been sandblasted. Now, in fairness, that's probably because their rocket shot a lot of the Regalith at it. But still, it's like, that's what this stuff does. It's like gritty sand. It's probably quite dangerous. And the basic upshot of this is just going to be a huge problem all the time and it'll have to be dealt with. All right. Now, my family's here for the holidays, which makes me wonder, just how many humans do we need in a population before we have no risk of inbreeding?
Starting point is 01:08:10 Ah. Yeah. I didn't think that was the direction that was going. No. So. I'm sure you didn't. This is an old question. The questions like this usually come up in conservation biology, right?
Starting point is 01:08:20 So when there's like, there's four and a half of the species of rhinos left, can we save them? And the usual answer is if it's that low, the answer is no. A general rule of thumb, and it's very rule of thumby, among conservation biologists, is about 500 is how many you need. It can get a little complicated because, you know, it depends on how related those 500 are and a bunch of other factors. But the very short version of this is there have been a lot of models built by space geeks mostly to see, like, well, what would be the minimum number of humans we would need so that if we never had any more immigration, we'd have a shot at. not eventually succumbing to end reading. And the lowest number we found was 98. The more typical numbers are in the like 5,000 to like 30,000 range.
Starting point is 01:09:01 And I should say 98 was not a joke, but like it was a science project, which was like, what is the absolute minimum? And it depended on essentially like a computer telling everybody who to mate with and how many kids to have. Right. Preserve, preserved genetic. Yeah. And also as soon as nothing ever goes wrong, which is, you know, probably not a great assumption. Yeah, right.
Starting point is 01:09:20 That's a good point. You have to have some small amount of immigration or just genetic engineering to the point where they can be like, all right, normally this would cause a problem, but we're going in and we're going over your DNA with a fine tooth comb and we're putting this test tube baby together for you. Yeah, yeah, totally. It's going to have to be something like that. Yeah, yeah. I mean, so you can get into these sci-fi solutions. So there's another solution which is where you can freeze dry male gametes. I mean, like men are basically worthless.
Starting point is 01:09:43 You just send only women and supply like a library of male gametes. and then you can introduce genetic diversity that way. The basic downside being like, you have to enforce this, which gets dystopian very quickly. Right. So I don't know. There are a lot of sorts of gadget solutions to genetic diversity. I think they're probably bad ideas because, you know, trying to convince your kids like you should obey the computers of mating selection algorithm. That's going to be a tough conversation.
Starting point is 01:10:08 Yeah, that's a tough one. You thought Romeo and Julia was rough. Wait, of the AI is telling you who you can mate with. I mean, I guess it would almost be like you pick your partner based on who you want, but then you just don't. actually, what is it, was that movie Demolition Man? Like you don't actually do any real mating at all. Everyone's sterilized or whatever. Right. And you just make babies and test tubes only. That is dystopian. That's pretty out there. All right. I know we're running out of time. Is it legal for Elon Musk or the United States or China to colonize space in the first place? I know space law
Starting point is 01:10:40 is a thing. Is space a commons? I don't even know if that's the case or not. Right. The short version is There's a document called the Outer Space Treaty. All the big powers have agreed to it since 1967. It says you countries cannot claim chunks of space. It's very clear Article 2 says it in plain language. You cannot claim chunks of space. The U.S. contra what Newt Gingrich proposed once, cannot claim the moon as a state.
Starting point is 01:11:03 That would be an assertion of national sovereignty over the moon, which you can't do. Nor can Elon Musk independently say, I'm not part of Earth. I'm my own state on the moon that would still violate international law. You might say that's fine because he's Elon Musk kid he's allowed to do what he wants. I think that's pretty questionable, but whatever. But yeah, it is absolutely against the rules. Space is supposed to be regulated as a common. People sometimes
Starting point is 01:11:23 debate exactly what that means, but it at least means that there are no national territories, right? So China cannot claim a chunk of the moon is China. They could set up a base, and they can even be fairly exclusive about it, but they cannot literally claim sovereignty over it. The other issue here is space law, much like international law, it's just not really super enforceable outside of what you would, I guess, earth-based conflict, right? And add to it that space powers are nuclear powers, generally, I think without exception, now that I think about it, we risk nuclear conflict on Earth or, yeah, well, nuclear conflict on Earth if we try to compete for space resources. So if China goes and says, you know, we rescind our acceptance of this treaty, or we're doing
Starting point is 01:12:05 this, but it doesn't count. It's that we get a loophole. The U.S. is going to go, okay, fine, well, we're blockading your Navy on Earth because, no, we disagree. The way I think about it, So people will sometimes say, you know, international law is not like domestic law because there's no police who are going to, like, put you in country jail when you were a bad country, right? That's true. One way you can think of it is sort of like gang warfare, right? So, like, gangs, you know, there is no arvar-arching law because they're outside the law. They still have conventions between each other. And there are still behaviors that are not done.
Starting point is 01:12:33 And that, you know, it obviously has a lot to do with power, but it's still real. It doesn't disappear because you've identified that it's just the powerful nations enforcing their views, right? So the international law that governs space is generally agreed upon by the most powerful countries. And I think the thing to realize here is suppose Elon Musk did start his own city on Mars tomorrow and claimed it was independent of Earth. It's not just that that would violate the international law. It would probably anger, say, China and Russia a lot more than it would anger Western powers. I think Western powers would still be frustrated. But the idea of setting up a liberal West-aligned nation on Mars, assuming that's what Elon Musk would want to do, would obviously be more offensive to do certain
Starting point is 01:13:12 parts of the planet than others. So the geopolitics would be more complicated than a kind of Mars law versus Earth law situation. So what is the best plan in your mind for colonizing something in space? Do we wait for more scientific leaps and then send people? And if so, what leaps are we waiting for? Nuclear fusion or what else? Yeah, yeah, yeah. So we argue for what we call a wait and go big approach, which is wait because there is a lot of science that needs to be done. We don't know enough about human reproduction to do this ethically. We don't know how to build these complex ecosystems. We really, we still need to scale the rockets quite a bit. But really we need that basic science of reproduction that's going to take at least decades if someone started spending on it now,
Starting point is 01:13:51 which they are not. And we also, I think you could make a good argument that we need better legal structures. We could argue all day long about what that should be, but something that is less conducive to war than the system we have now. And then two, you'd want to go big, and that obviously requires a lot of technology, but there's so many advantages to going big, just to going to scale. Like, we might have touched on this, but we have a chapter about the idea of space psychology. And the short version is, you know, there's no evidence contrary to what people sometimes say that people go mad in space, but they do have regular psychiatric issues like anywhere else. And so we need a big enough settlement that you can have regular division of
Starting point is 01:14:25 labor to take care of all these problems. We talk about some of the economics that are also helped by just scale. Probably it's the case that with the ecosystem design, it gets easier at scale. Making an ecosystem functional at the size of a thimble is probably harder than the size of a city. So if you can wait long enough to take this big approach, I think a whole lot of different problems get solved. And there's also just time to work out a lot of the really freaky stuff ethically. Because if you have a world where because of all the medical problems we discussed, there's a higher the normal rate of birth abnormality, but you're also in a world where everyone's considered to have to pull their own weight,
Starting point is 01:15:00 that's like a potential nightmare scenario. Right. Yeah, you end up with some pretty horrible ideas. on hot what to do about that, right? Yep. And often people are surprisingly cool with it. And it's just like, this is a choice. Let's not make this choice.
Starting point is 01:15:13 Let's wait until we can do it in a way that doesn't, like, create an evil space empire. I've had this conversation with people where it's just like, they'll be like, yeah, it's probably going to be a lot more authoritarian and dangerous on Mars. Like, why are we building an evil enemy on Mars? Like completely incompatible, not just with American values, but with Earth values. Yeah, just basic human decency stuff. Yeah. Like, oh, when you have a child that's not.
Starting point is 01:15:35 not born strong enough to withstand the environment or the pressure, you don't just murder them as a child and feed them to the rest of the team for protein? Like, no, we don't do that. Oh, well, we're going to have a problem here. Yeah. Like, you thought, you think North Korea's bad. It's going to make that place look like Disneyland. Totally. So it sounds like you think we should hold off for now. What is the timeline on a lot of this science? You mentioned decades and that's if people are spending now, which they aren't. So are we talking about like a hundred plus years from now? That would be my guess. I mean, I always want to say, you mentioned like nuclear fusion. You know, there is some world in which next week we have advanced AI and it showers us with insights and everything changes. But with what I see now, especially given that some of these problems are biological and have to do with human medicine, which means we have to go slow. I think at least decades, if not centuries is the timelines we should be thinking about. First settlement. I mean, if you're talking about putting a cool base on the moon, that could be done in 10 years. I don't know if it will be, but the technology is there. But trying to have families. generations, like having to really settle and make a new life for humanity somewhere else.
Starting point is 01:16:37 That's centuries. Zach, thank you so much. By the way, what we're going to get emails about is people going, there already is a base on Mars. I've gotten that. You're just got talking about it. That's what we're going to get emails about. It's slid in right at the end of the show.
Starting point is 01:16:49 That's where the cooks are going to come from. Let me tell you. Zach, thank you very much, man. I really appreciate you doing the show. This is fascinating stuff. There's no getting around it. Really interesting. Thank you very much.
Starting point is 01:17:01 Now, I've got some thoughts on this episode, but before we get into that, Here's a sample of my interview with astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson. We talk about why an interest in science serves every field of expertise from law to art, what our education should ideally train us for. Here's a quick look inside. Walt Whitman, when I heard the learned astronomer, when the proofs, the figures were ranged in columns before me,
Starting point is 01:17:27 when I was shown the charts and diagrams to add, divide, and measure them. When I sitting heard the astronomer where he lectured with much applause in the lecture room, how soon, unaccountable, I became tired and sick, till rising and gliding out, I wandered off by myself into the mystical moist night air, and from time to time, looked up in perfect silence at the stars. It's the same curiosity you have as a kid, but I just haven't as an adult. I've had it since childhood. You don't have to maintain it.
Starting point is 01:18:05 You just have to make sure nothing interferes with it. So the counterpart to this would be, oh, sir, literate one, why ruin what something looks like by describing it with words when I can see it fully with my eyes? Your words just get in the way. I'd rather my mind float freely as I gaze upon something of interest and have the writer step in between me and it and interpose his or her own interpretation.
Starting point is 01:18:32 You don't know the thoughts that you're not having. What keeps me awake is wondering what questions I don't yet know to ask because they would only become available to me after we discover what dark matter and dark energy is. Oh, man. Because think about it, the fact that we even know how to ask that question, that's almost half the way there. But I want to know the question that I can't know yet.
Starting point is 01:18:55 What is the profound level of ignorance that will manifest after we answer the profound questions we've been smart enough to pose this far. For more, including how science denial has gained a global foothold, what it'll take for the U.S. to get to Mars before China, and why it's dangerous for people to claim the Earth is flat, check out episode 327 of the Jordan Harbinger Show with Neil deGrasse Tyson. I love stuff like this. This is one of those things that most of us don't spend much time thinking about it,
Starting point is 01:19:29 but I guess if we do, we never really take the time. to do the math, so to speak. And so it was amazing to hear from somebody who did that and then brought receipts. We don't know, actually, if people can adopt psychologically to confined space spaces. You'd have to have a lot of room for folks to move around or people might just go nuts. What about mental illness in space? There's going to be stuff we haven't even discovered yet that's unique to space. Medical issues in general, medical treatment in space. Medications aren't going to work the same because you're not digesting the same. Anesthesia might not be available. Maybe it kills you because of, who knows, gravity, the oxygen count.
Starting point is 01:20:04 I mean, we just don't know. You almost have to do or redo all medication testing and FDA clinical trials all over again with a space population that's in different gravity, different temperatures. I mean, that is just an insane undertaking. You can't even safely take aspirin up there, probably. I mean, we don't really know yet. That's the thing. And what if somebody dies in space?
Starting point is 01:20:26 It's never really happened other than when you lose the whole crew at once. but what if somebody just passes away from some kind of food poisoning or they have an accident? What do you do with them? And on the other side of the coin, space pregnancy. Has this ever happened? No. Certainly there have been no space births yet, but are they a citizen of the country that the parents are in and what sort of facilities do we have and can babies grow up during those developmental phases
Starting point is 01:20:51 in less gravity than Earth? That seems like it's possibly a really, really, really bad idea. Or at least if they're going to ever come back to Earth, a terrible idea. Again, don't know. Some folks argue that an endeavor like colonizing Mars will unify Earth. And I am looking at social media, which is not really a great indicator, but humor me here. And I'm not so convinced, okay? Space isn't going to unify us.
Starting point is 01:21:13 We do joint space things as a group of countries when things are already unified. We don't often get along with other countries because our values differ fundamentally. one of the reasons we didn't do joint space exercises with the Soviet Union is because we were concerned primarily with their human rights perspective, among other things. So the idea that we're then suddenly going to be like, you know what, let's put aside our differences and work with like North Korea on sending people to space, not too bloody likely.
Starting point is 01:21:42 And do we want to change our human rights perspective so that we can send people to space? Do we even need to do that? I think we can do this without unifying the Earth. I just don't think that doing this is going to end up unifying the Earth. It just seems a little bit more far-fetched than the science fiction of colonizing space in the first place. All things Zach Wiener-Smith will be in the show notes at Jordan Harbinger.com. You can also ask the AI chatbot on the website. Transcripts are in the show.
Starting point is 01:22:06 Advertisers, deals, discount codes, ways to support the show. All at Jordan Harbinger.com slash deals. Please consider supporting those who support the show. By the way, all books are at Jordan Harbinger.com slash books. Even using those links also can help. We've also got our newsletter where every week the team and I dig into an older episode of the show. dissect the lessons from it. So if you are a fan of the show,
Starting point is 01:22:26 and I hope you are, and you want to recap of important insights and takeaways, or you just want to know what to listen to next, the newsletter is a great place to do just that. jordanharbinger.com slash news is where you can find it. Don't forget about six-minute networking as well over at six-minute networking. I'm at Jordan Harbinger on Twitter, Instagram,
Starting point is 01:22:43 or you can find me on LinkedIn. This show is created in association with podcast one. My team is Jen Harbinger, Jace Sanderson, Robert Fogarty, Millio Campo, Ian Baird, and Gabriel Mizrahi. Remember, we rise by lifting others. The fee for this show is you share it with friends when you find something useful or interesting.
Starting point is 01:23:00 The greatest compliment you can give us is to share the show with those you care about. If you know somebody who's interested in space, colonizing space, all that stuff, definitely share this episode with them. I think they'll be into this. In the meantime, I hope you apply what you hear on the show so you can live what you learn, and we'll see you next time.
Starting point is 01:23:14 This episode is sponsored in part by Something You Should Know Podcast. Finding a new great podcast shouldn't be this hard, so let me save you some time. If you like the Jordan Harbinger show, you'll probably like something you should know with Mike Carruthers. It's one of those shows that makes you smarter in a practical, useful way. Same curiosity vibe we go for here, just in a fast-focused format. Mike brings on top experts and asks the exact questions that you'd want to ask, and the topics are all over the place in the best way.
Starting point is 01:23:39 Recently, they've covered things like why we care so much what other people think, the benefits of laughter, why sports fans get so invested, and what makes people like you or not. The through line is always the same. Smart ideas you can actually use in real life. Something you should know has been featured in Apple's shows we love, and it's got thousands of five-star reviews because it's consistently interesting. So if you want another show that scratches that I want to understand how people in the world really work, itch, search for something you should know wherever you get your podcasts. Look for the bright yellow light bulb and start listening.
Starting point is 01:24:09 You can thank me later.

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