The Josh Innes Show - Are The Texans Primed For A Letdown?

Episode Date: September 5, 2025

It's interesting. Last year, I think we all believed the Texans were going to take a stop forward in year two of CJ and Demeco. Then, for whatever reason, they didn't. Was last year a hiccup or are the Texans going to be mediocre this season? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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the Defender 110 pushes what's possible. Learn more at land rover.ca. There you are, pushing your newborn baby in a stroller through the park. The first time out of the house in weeks. You have your Starbucks, Venty. because, you know, sleep deprivation. You meet your best friend. She asks you how it's going.

You immediately begin to laugh. Then cry. Then laugh cry? That's totally normal, right? She smiles. You hug. There's no one else you'd rather share this with. You know, three and a half hour sleep is more than enough.

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make the playoffs. And I still think the Texans are going to make the playoffs, but I'm kind of torn on that. We talked about that a little bit yesterday, but I don't feel bad about them. I just don't really feel good about them. Like going into last year, coming off of the first year of C.J. Stroud, I was very much into the Texans and what they were going to do. And they let down last year. I mean, they dealt with some injuries. I get that. Nico had his issues.

And then you see what happened to some of the other guys. And, like, obviously, they were beat up in some spots. And they found themselves in a position that I think teams like Washington are going to find themselves in this. year where you kind of burst onto the scene with a young quarterback and people don't know what to expect and you take the world by storm and before you know it you're a super bowl threat and that's what the Texans were in year one of Stroud when you watch them last year you never got the vibe that they were a Super Bowl threat you knew they'd make the playoffs and you knew they could win a playoff game but I don't think watching them last year did you feel like oh

Stroud could lead them to the Super Bowl oh he's got the weapons to do it because in part he was dealing with a lot of injuries he was running for his life. And he just kind of seemed like a different dude. He was a different quarterback last year. And that happens, I think, in year two. You're not going to be the same guy in year two as you were in year one. People know more about you in year two than they did in year one. And what you're going to run into now is you're going to run into kind of the rubber match, if you will.

Let me play a few commercials and we'll talk about that. All right, it's game week, baby. And we are ready for football with Draft King's Sportsbook and a fitness. sports betting partner of the National Football League. You know, I love my live bets, but I'll also put in some pregame spread bets over unders, anytime touchdowns, we do it all. And get this, new customers, are you listening to New Customers? Bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets instantly.

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Enjoy some goldfish cheddar crackers. Goldfish have short memories. Be like goldfish. When I say rubber match, what do I mean? Well, like in baseball terminology, you split the first two games of a three-game series. The rubber match is game three of that series. Okay. So you've got a rubber match.

This is kind of a, who is C.J. Stroud and who is this or who are these Texans? What is this iteration of the Houston Texans in the Domingo Ryan's era? Because year one was splendid. And it caught everybody by surprise. Year two, people expected bigger things. And I think kind of came not crashing down to earth because crashing down to earth would have been you won five games. You were still a good football team that was a playoff football team, right? but there were expectations last year.

The expectations were greater because of what happened in the first year. This year, the expectations are still high, maybe a little bit more tempered than they were a year ago. But this is a year where I think, I think year three, you should be able to get a more realistic and accurate gauge of what the team is and what really, particularly, D'Amico is as a coach and C.J. Stroud is as a quarterback. Year three is where you're going to see that. I think they're a playoff team. I don't know that they got better offensive line-wise, and he was dealing with a lot of offensive line issues last year. Just the health of NICO makes them good in the wide receiver area, but I don't know that they're better overall than they were last year at that position.

I don't know that they're better defensively. And here's the other thing you're going to run into. I think that the division's going to be better because I think, and maybe it's just a trendy, sexy thing. but I like the weapons they have in Jacksonville, and I get this for every team. But if Trevor Lawrence is healthy, I think they have a chance to be the best team in the division. I'm picking them to win the division. I think the Texans are the wild card, the Jaguars win the division. But like, are the Colts better than they were last year?

Probably not with Daniel Jones. But what if, here's a what if? What if a change of scenery, new coach, get out of New York, what if that changes things for Daniel Jones. What if Daniel Jones isn't the doofus he was in New York? And what if getting out of the circus there turns him into a better player, at least a solid player? He won the job. Now, part of that's because they just fucking hate Anthony Richardson. But what do you do there? What happens with him? If he figures it out a little bit and doesn't turn the ball over? I mean, look, he led the giant. You forget this, but he led the Giants to the playoffs when you're

right? You forget that he had some decent stuff. It was just never going to be good enough for New York. and he fell off a cliff. But, I mean, we've seen dudes that have gone to that next place or in some cases the next next place and become great. Look at Baker. Baker's about to win another division with Tampa this year. Baker was left for dead after Cleveland and kind of toiled around. I think he was in Carolina for a little bit.

And then found it in Tampa. It took two stops, but he found it in Tampa. And now Baker puts up great numbers and wins football games in Tampa. Like, sometimes it's that next thing. And I'm not even talking about guys. like Drew Brees, who were solid in Miami, became rock stars in New Orleans. I'm talking about guys that were left for dead in particular spots, got another shot. I mean, look at Sam Darnold.

Sam Darnold did it. I mean, I'm just going to sound bizarre, but I think Zach Wilson has a chance to be a guy that could do that. You know, guys that just fell off a cliff somewhere were in the wrong situation. If you notice, a lot of the guys I bring up happen to be guys associated with the Jets or New York teams. But they get the fuck out of New York. they go somewhere else and they're pretty good like Sam Darnold was pretty good last year to the point that there were teams that were interested in him becoming the starting quarterback for them and he did so what if that happens with the Colts and they figure it out and quarterback

wise Daniel Jones doesn't like beat you but he doesn't kill you what the Titans are going to be bad like unless Cam Ward just has the most ridiculous rookie year ever there was no indicator in the preseason and maybe the preseason isn't the greatest spot to look at this, but the Titans are going to suck. Callahan doesn't seem to be a very good coach. I think if you're going to have a rookie quarterback like that, you want to have someone that you feel comfortable with as a head coach and say, okay, this guy's established, he's pretty good.

Callahan is not. So I don't expect the Titans to be anything. They will have to show you something before you go, okay, they're a threat. But Jaguars, Colts, and Texans, I'm not going to say are all pretty close. The Jaguars and Texans are both close. and I think the Colts could beat either one of those teams on a given day, assuming Daniel Jones maybe figures it out. If he doesn't, they won't.

But you look at what you've got on that schedule and you go, who are the Texans? Where did they get exponentially better year over year? I don't really have that answer. We didn't see it in the preseason at least. And again, what does the preseason tell you? I don't know. But it's very possible that they're an eight-win team. They could also win a 10, they could be 10 wins.

You look at the Texans and go, what is their floor? Could they be a seven-win team? Like, I don't see them bottoming out and being a four-win team. But is there a world where they go seven and ten, eight and nine? Maybe. I mean, you look at their schedule. I mean, inside the division, you should feel like you can get two wins out of the Titans, and it were split with the Colts.

But, I mean, fucking Daniel Jones. Like, until you see that he's found a different world with the Colts, assume you should beat them. So it were, and unless Daniel, Jones, we see him in week one. We're like, holy shit, this guy can sling now. You should look at this and go, we should steal four wins right there. And then it were split with the Jaguars. I don't think the Jaguars are looking at the schedule the exact same way.

They're looking at it as beat the Colts twice, beat the Titans twice, split with the Texans. But like, let's say you go five and one in the division. Do you have five other games on the schedule that you can circle and go, okay, I think we're going to win those? you circle the Rams are a winnable game on the road Matt Stafford's been beat up, has an injury but they also went out and signed Devante Adams and Pooka Nukua can still ball

it's on the road, you're an underdog can you win that game? Would it be shocking if you won that game? No, I wouldn't be shocked if you want but is that a game you circle and go, oh, we're getting this one? No. The Buccaneers at home is that a game, you'll probably be slightly favored in that game, maybe a one-point dog close to a pick them. There's not a huge gap between you and the

Buccaneers, but just as much as you could win that game, you could lose that game. Seahawks, on the road, you could win it, you could lose it. That's the thing. The Texans are not a team where I would see them on a schedule and look at them up against anybody and go, well, I take that back. If they play Buffalo, I feel like Buffalo

is a better team than them. If they play the Ravens, I think the Ravens are a better team than them. Kansas City is probably a better team than them. Outside of that, like the Broncos, they play the Broncos at home in November. You beat the Broncos. That's not a game you circle and go, we have no chance. I don't look at the, like, people are blowing the 49ers.

What did you see out of the 49ers last year that made you believe the 49ers were somehow primed for some break, your breakout comeback year? I didn't see it. I wasn't impressed by them last year. So could you at home beat the 49ers in October? Fuck yeah. Like, I wouldn't look at that game as I write that one off. The Arizona Cardinals.

Yeah, the Cardinals are a six point favorite against the Saints. Well, the Saints are probably going to be the worst team in the NFL this year. Who gives a shit? You're at home. You should beat the Arizona Cardinals at home. Like that one, I'd circle and say, win that game. Raiders at home win that game. Like, even if you just took the idea of going five and one in the division, which I think is very realistic.

At worst, four and two, but let's say you go five and one with kind of a wild cardinald being, but we don't know what Daniel Jones is going to do in Indianapolis. But let's just say you go five and one, which is very doable. You can beat the Raiders at home. You can beat the Cardinals at home. They're seven. Like those are two I'd circle and say, you've got to win those. You're at home against two teams.

Well, they may be better than expectations. How good are they going to be? So you should beat teams, knowing nothing about them, who knows, in three months, things could change. The Cardinals may be undefeated. The Raiders maybe have beaten Kansas City two times by then, and we're like, holy shit. But the Raiders and Cardinals, just based on prior experience and what we know about them,

you should win those games at home. So there's seven wins. Then you've got toss-ups when you look at, you know, the Buccaneers, I think, are a toss-up. The Rams are a toss-up. Can you find three other wins in those other eight games? So I think they're going to the playoffs. I just don't know how good they are. Like my belief in them, my hype on them is nowhere near what it was. Maybe that's a good thing. Because I think we were all super hyped on the Texans last year. Coming off a playoff year, the assumption is it's only going to get better. Dude goes to the playoffs in

his first year. They bawled out. They shocked the world. Want a playoff game. Things could only get better. And then things didn't get better. And D'Amico made questionable decisions and like people were questioning his ability as a head coach. People were questioning offensive the play calling. Like everything that they weren't doing two years ago because the team shocked the world, they all kind of reared their head in that scenario last year. I think they're a playoff team. If they won the division, I wouldn't be shocked. But they basically have to find, they're going to have to find four or five wins outside of the division. get in. The good news for them is

there is no one on that schedule outside of Buffalo and Kansas City. And maybe Kansas City is due for a falloff. But outside of Buffalo and Kansas City, there is not a team on their schedule that I would circle and go, oh, and the Ravens, of course, too. Put the Ravens on there. The three top teams. So, if they

lost all three of those games, I wouldn't be shocked. Two of those are on the road. Last year we saw what happened when they played those teams. So let's just assume a loss in those three games. So at that point, you've won five in your division. You've lost. one and now you've lost those three games, you're a five and four football team and you have eight games to go. Can you find five wins out of the eight toss-ups? And with two that I think should

be wins, Raiders, Cardinals at home. So can you find three out of six essentially to make the postseason? Maybe, maybe. But I'm not against them. I think they're a playoff team. But things can really take a turn if you have one of those things where Daniel Jones, he was a first round pick if Daniel Jones goes to the Colts and you go, wow, they figured something out with Daniel Jones. I don't think that's

going to happen, but it could. Look, Baker Mayfield was left for dead. For years he was left for dead. Goes to Tampa and balls. I mean, these things happen. So we'll see. All right, more to come.