The Josh Innes Show - Betting Heartbreak

Episode Date: November 4, 2025

I almost had a really big hit on last nights MNF game. I want to share with you my favorite players to be for first quarter productivity. Consider this a big picture "Prop Til' You Drop". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Conditions and exclusions apply. All right, let's see here. I enjoy this headline. Headline reads, Can Buffalo's battered defense hold up after signature win over Kansas City? Why is that a signature win? Like, aren't the, the Buffalo, isn't Buffalo in the era of Josh Allen like five and one in the regular season

against the Chiefs. Please let me know how that is a signature win. I'd like to note. Is it a signature win for this year's team? I guess, maybe. But really, all the people care about is Mahomes v. Josh Allen. And everything we see, this is how it always goes. It never fails.

Josh Allen wins big regular season game. Oh, boy, look out for Buffalo, Buffalo Bill, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then what ends up happening in the playoffs is the bills lose. I do not give a shit that the bills won a regular season game against the Chiefs. It happens every year. I do not care. It is completely meaningless. It's as meaningless as any regular season basketball win.

It's as meaningless as if, like, you know, you were a shitty team in the early 2000s, but you beat the Lakers in a regular season game with Kobe and Shaq. Cool. What will happen when you play them in the playoffs? What happened every time the Lakers would run into a Sacramento Kings or whom, never. Great. Beat them in the regular season. The Bulls. How many times did you see it? Regular season like, oh boy, the hornets did this to the Bulls, the bullets did this to the Bulls, or look out in the radio. Or you'd always hear it, and obviously this never happened, so we never

got to see it. But you'd hear about it with Houston all the time. It'd be like, boy, they had Mad Max, and he was the Michael Jordan stopper, and the regular season. Their record was blank and blank. Well, that's great. You never met in the playoffs because you're in different conferences. You never met in the finals, so we'll never know. But all that matters is what you do in the playoffs. Now, if it's like a first-time deal, if this is a new rivalry or something new, I'd say that's different.

I'd say it's different if Josh Allen was new to the league and they're looking to kind of get over the regular season hump against the Chiefs and you beat them, that'd be a big deal. You've leapt over the regular season hump. There is no regular season hump. You have smashed it.

It's not a hump anymore. You just walk over them. You beat them in the regular season all the time. But the only thing people are going to care about is what you do in the playoffs. So the idea that they hold up after signature win over Kansas City. Why is that a signature win? Wow, because they beat the Chiefs? Super.

The Chiefs are going to beat them in the playoffs. The reason they're going to beat them in the playoffs is the Bill's playmakers aren't as good as the Chief's playmakers. And the Bill's defense actually may not be as good as the Chief's defense. Let's play a couple commercials and we will continue. Look at the skill position, guys. I'm all over the chief skill position guys compared to the guys in Buffalo. So just the skill guys, and defensively, I'd say it's probably a wash between the two teams. I don't think there's one unit that's specifically better than the other in the defensive side.

So to me, I'm going to take Mahomes in the playoffs, and I'm going to take Rishi Rice in the playoffs. And Travis, who is up and down, but I'll take Travis in the playoffs, as if I know him, by the way, Travis. Dope. But I'll take Kelsey in the playoffs. I will take Xavier Worthy in the playoffs. I will take their weapons over the weapons that the Buffalo has. Like, cool. You've got Dalton Kincaid.

He's fine. And you've got Shahir. That's fine. But like, Shakir. But I don't know, man. Give me the playoffs and give me Patrick Mahomes in that game any day. Don't care if it's in Buffalo. Don't care if it's Kansas City.

Don't care if it's in a neutral site. Don't care if it's on Mars. I'll take the Chiefs in that game because you have to prove it. So regular season win means absolutely nothing. Other stuff, so the Cowboys continue to be a disaster as well. Here's the negative, though, about the Cowboys. The Cowboys were at least a fun team to watch and bet on because their offense was super explosive and they scored a bunch of points.

Not the case last night. A 17 point outing from the Cowboys. And they got beaten. Here's another dumb thing. And I understand that you're paying one guy a lot of money, so you have to play him. But the fact that the Cardinal still claim that Kyler Murray is their starter over Jacoby Brissette is dumb. Because look, look, they're one and two with him, so I get that the record isn't great. But you look at what this dude's done in the three games he's played, the last three, 320 yards and two touchdowns, 279 yards in two touchdowns, 261 yards and two touchdowns, six touchdowns, one interception.

Dudes out there just slinging all day, all night, sling here, sling, sling, sling, man. So that's dumb. And like, you're probably not going to make the playoffs anyway. You want to hear something else that's dumb and there's a real heartbreaker? So I told you that I make first quarter catch bets, right? That's usually, like, one of my favorite things to do on Draft Kings is take, you know, five, six dudes to have one catch in the first quarter. And in the NFL, there are certain dudes who are damn near guaranteed a catch, right? like Jamar Chase, for the most part, guaranteed a catch.

Unless the other team has a 14-minute drive, they're going to throw it to guys. Jamar is going to get at least a target. Justin Jefferson's going to get a target. Brock Bowers is going to get a target. McCaffrey, Kittle, like guys like that. They're dudes and they're quarterbacks who are professional enough to get it to them. So I built a six-leg play last night that with a boost was plus $1,100. Put 50 bucks on it.

It would have won like $700. And I took a catch from, let's see, all the guys I took, I took Michael Wilson from the Cardinals, I took Marvin Harrison from the Cardinals, I took C.D. Lamb from the Cowboys, Jake Ferguson from the Cowboys, and what's his name, Pickens. And I took Trey McBride. Tray McBride is about as a guarantee first quarter catch guy as you are ever going to find. He's one of these great tight ends. You know, we're big tight ends people on the show. We love. We love Bowers. We love Trey McBride. Although Ladd McConkey's not a tight-in. We love Ladd McConkey. We are big white tight-in dudes on this show. For whatever reason, we're like in this golden era of white pass-catching tight-ins that are just beasts. Look around the league. If you don't have one, you're probably not doing too well as a team. Buffalo with Dalton Kincaid, who's not one of my favorites, but Kincaid, Kelsey. Just go to look at Dalton, Schultz, and Houston. You can look at every team and name their They're super duper white tight in that's going to get you five or six catches. But anyway, so I've got Trey McBride. I've got two possessions with the Cardinals just needing a catch from Trey McBride to win $600. And it's looking like it's not going to happen because the Cowboys have the ball with like three minutes to go. They didn't get a catch from McBride on the first drive.

They targeted him, but he didn't get a catch. Cowboys end up getting a holding penalty, get a sack, they have to punt. There's two and a half minutes to go in the first quarter. getting a shot here with my guy, Trey McBride. And wouldn't you know it that the son of a bitch didn't make a catch in the first quarter and it cost me a $600 victory. Trey McBride, my go-to guy, my lover, didn't come through. Speaking of the tight ends, I told you, I'm a big tight-ins dude in the league.

And you start looking around, just look at all the teams and you can name their tight-in for the most part, right? Let's see, you got the Bears. They've added this Colston Loveland who had the game-winning catch, right? They've also had Colquette. Cole Commets hurt, but Colston Loveland. You look at the Bengals. Who the fuck catches past?

Oh, they had, what's his name? Mike Gaseki. You look at the Vikings. The Vikings have T.J. Hawkinson, who's not always putting up big numbers. Sam Leporter with the Lions. Panthers couldn't name their Titan. My bad. Packers.

You got Tucker Kraft. He's hurt. They got a couple of guys, but Tucker Kraft is one of those guys that's good to take for a first quarter catch. Chargers, the whole goddamn team is great to take for a first quarter catch. This is kind of a prop to you drop piece of advice early in the season for all you kids out there. Always look, these are guys that if you wanted to get on draft kings and take first quarter catches or take their overall catches or yards, depending on where they are. These are guys that I love. Loveland is not one of them, by the way.

I was just trying to show off that I knew who Colston Loveland was as if that's impressive. But guys, if you're looking first quarter dudes, tight-ins, whatever. Sam Leporta is golden for a first quarter catch, at least one first quarter catch. Tucker Kraft is fine, but he's hurt. Chargers, you could literally go no wrong. You can take Quentin Johnston, you can take Keenan Allen, you can take Ladd McConkey, and you can take Orande Gadsden. Those four guys in a given football game, just on their own. Now, granted, the value's not great on all these guys.

Some of these guys are like minus 500 to have a first quarter catch. That's why you take them in the parlay. But all four of those guys, almost a lock to get a catch every first quarter for the Chargers. Titans, actually I couldn't tell you, but I don't bet anything with the Titans because they're a waste. Falcons, Drake London, locked to have a first quarter catch every week. Patriots, there's a couple of them. Hunter Henry's fine, but I don't really screw with the Patriots a lot with past catchers, so that's one I don't really know. 49ers, Kittle and McCaffrey, they'll throw it to them. Giants couldn't fucking tell you. Maybe, what's his name? That's the tight end there with them. I'm drawing a blank on the guy's name, but he's not a bad one to take. Colts, Tyler fucking Warren, all day for a first quarter catch.

Now, if you want to have it more valuable, you can take 10 yards, 5 yards, whatever. If they are available, I love building parlays with just certain dudes to catch a pass in the first quarter. It doesn't matter if it's a loss of 10 as long as it's a catch. Now, again, it's more valuable to take 10 yards, whatever, I get it. But Tyler fucking Warren, money. Steelers, another guy that's a lock for a first quarter catch for me has been the running back, Jalen Warren. He's a solid one. Maybe Friermuth, but I haven't been screwing with him as much, but the running back is solid.

Broncos, I hate all of their past catchers. I generally speaking don't fuck with the Broncos past catchers. Texans don't really interest me either, but Dalton Schultz would be a guy I'd consider. The whole thing with Nico is weird. Jaguars, I haven't really been fucking with the Jags either. Raiders, Brock Bowers, now that he's back, he's a guy that's going to catch passes for you. Rams, you want to hear something wild. For Pooka and Kua to have one catch in the first quarter was minus 800.

For him to have two was like minus 200. He ended up having like five first quarter catches. It's stupid. Saints, I don't screw with anybody in there either. Chiefs, generally speaking, I think you can go no wrong with going Worthy, Rishie Rice, or Travis. Travis tends to be a little dicey sometimes, but Rishie Rice and Xavier Worthy are almost locks to have a first quarter catch.

It's great when you get these guys. Like Mahomes that are pros that know how to get them the ball and knows he's got to get him the ball. Shakir is not bad for Buffalo. And Dalton Kincaid is fine. Seahawks. Jackson Smith and Jigba is my golden goose. This man is a god. Take him to catch as many passes and get as many yards as possible.

The guy is a god. Commanders, your safest one, I guess, is Ertz. But I guess it depends on. who's playing quarterback, but if I had to look at the guys that are my options to catch passes for the beat-up commander skins, I would probably go with Zach Earths. And then last night, you get C.D. Lambs a guarantee for a first quarter catch. Pickens is pretty much a guarantee. Ferguson, outside of last week, has been a guarantee. And then Trey McBride, who outside of this week is a lock for like 15 yards in the first quarter, but I got hosed and lost out on $600. I know you've got your own problems, though. And I don't know how any of this will impact you. But if you get into betting or anything like that, like, These are the things that are interesting to me.

Like I love first quarter catches. I love the first quarter tight end catches. That's what I get into. That's my passion. So there you go. More to come.