The Josh Innes Show - Can Rockets Bounce Back?

Episode Date: April 28, 2025

We've got a big Rockets/Warriors game tonight. Can the Rockets bounce back? Can Jalen Green score more than 18.5 points? Can the Rockets score more than 99.5 points? I know the NBA regular season sucks...but the playoffs have been outstanding. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Well, we got a good spot tonight for the Rockets and Warriors. I think the Rockets are going to bounce back and win. It's very similar to what happened to them between Game 1 and Game 2. Jalen Green had a bad game in Game 1, came out with spectacular in Game 2, and they won. I think this one is shaping up to be another one where you get Jalen Green coming off a 9 points last game, now comes in, and I think he's going to ball on this one tonight, and I think that the Rockets are going to win. I need to look at their team total and the total in the game,

but, look, I mean, the Rockets, the last game was disappointing because they kind of controlled the game, it felt like, throughout, and then in the second half just fell apart. Fourth quarter particularly fell apart. They were outscored by 13 and lost the game by 11. So look, those kind of things happen. You melt down. You're a young team.

It's important to note this about the Rockets. First off, actually, before we even note that, is Jimmy Butler playing tonight? That's an important thing to see. Jimmy Butler, are you alive? That's the part that made that suck. Jimmy Butler doesn't play. You think you got a good opportunity on the road to go win that game, but then you look at the point spread and you were an underdog.

So obviously there was a reason why you were an underdog in that game. You found a way to lose it. Still questionable, I think, for game four, so we'll see. I guess that gives a little bit of wiggle room, though, to the Warriors. If they would have lost game three, then you feel more pressure to rush back with Butler. If it's 2-2, you lose this game 2- two, you got to win a two out of three series. It's not the end of the world. You've already proven you can go to Houston and win. I don't

know. And I took the Rockets to win this series. But what you're starting to see here is that maybe the youth of the Rockets is not ready for the primetime spot. And while there are veterans, like they've got a Dylan Brooks, who has been in a ton of playoff games, a ton of playoff games against the Warriors when he was with the Grizzlies. You've got guys like Fred Van Vliet. You've got guys like Steven Adams, guys like that who are veterans, who've been there before, who've played in a lot of playoff games.

Everyone else on your roster is a young dude who does not have that. Amon Thompson, Alperin Shingun, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason. These guys don't have that. So there is an advantage to being a team like Golden State, who's got Steph, who's played in a billion playoff games, and Draymond, who's played in a billion games, and Jimmy Butler, who's played in a billion playoff games, and Draymond, who's played in a billion games, and Jimmy Butler, who's played in a billion playoff games. I mean, you just look at their roster.

Their roster, while I don't think is supremely talented or even considerably better than the Rockets, if better at all, it's a lot of guys who've played playoff games, most notably because they've been with that organization. So you get the Moses Moody's who give you veteran minutes. Buddy Heald gives you veteran minutes. Kevon Looney gives you veteran minutes. Everybody on that squad has experience.

And what I think you start to see sometimes is the teams that have the experience largely have an advantage over inexperienced ones. Look at the Knicks. The Knicks have gone up 3-1. That whole roster is filled with dudes who have postseason experience, dudes who are veterans. You look over at Detroit. Detroit, who's lost the last two games by a combined three points. A lot of their roster is dudes who, now,

obviously, Tobias Harris has been around a long time. So has Tim Hardaway Jr. They have veteran guys, but the core of the team, the core best players on the team for the most part are guys like Cade Cunningham, who's never been there before. Asar Thompson, who hasn't been there before. They've got guys who have not experienced that life. Jalen Duren, who has not done it before. for so I think it catches up with you sometimes now that said that should be a 2-2 series because there was an opportunity to win the game yesterday for Detroit they miss a jumper that's got to go from Cade Dern he or uh Cade Cunningham he's going to hit those shots at some point in his life then they got fouled on the three-pointer is there like I'm all for getting shit right but the last two-minute report, I don't even know that that benefits anybody.

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everywhere including new york and ontario void where prohibited one per new customer bonus awarded is non-withdrawable pick six credits that expire in 14 days limited time offer see terms at pick six dot draft kings dot com slash prom. Saw the guys on TNT talking about this and the merits of the last two-minute report in a basketball game, which said that Tim Hardaway Jr. did get fouled shooting a three at the buzzer. Three didn't go.

It should have been three free throws down by a point. They probably win that game, and it's 2-2. Does that really benefit anybody? Like, that's an interesting debate because all it's going to do like great it makes Detroit feel better about themselves they should have won the game it should have been a foul big fucking deal you still can't win the game you can't go back and replay it so there's a part of me that says it's good that they hold the officials accountable and let you

know what they missed and how they did it that's good because refs and officials in sports need to be more accountable on shit the problem problem is, what does that help? What does that benefit? It's like the Saints not going to the Super Bowl on the missed call in the NFC Championship game. Great, we know they missed it. Who fucking cares? We're sitting at home and the goddamn Rams are in the Super Bowl. Who does that help?

So I'm glad that it's out there. And yes, they should have won the game. And had I bet on them have won the game and had I bet on them to win the game I'd be furious and I guarantee you my viewpoint on this would be a lot different today if we're being honest but still they should have won the game anyway because Cade Cunningham who is a very good player had a triple double yesterday and is a budding superstar he had an elbow jumper a shot that he makes in his sleep, and he missed it. If he hits that, there's like five seconds to go in the game. You're up one,

you need one defensive stop. And I know a lot of you guys listening aren't big basketball people, and that's fine. And I totally get why regular season basketball would do nothing for you, because half the time guys are sitting out. It's just a lazier game. Watch the regular season games, 150 to 145. It's just a wide open game. The games don't really matter. And that's why the NBA has a hard time keeping people's attention because we know the games don't matter because for the most part, the players tell us the games don't matter. So like games matter, but for the most part, every night when you watch basketball is not a must-see television moment because for the most part, every night when you watch basketball is not a must-see television moment. Because for the most part, when you're watching basketball, the players don't even give a shit. Like, they know that they have another, like, there's 82 of these things.

And they know who's going to get in pretty much from the start of the season. So they don't care. Playoff basketball has been fantastic. Like, the Grizzlies had a fun game against Oklahoma City the other day. They could have, should have won it. They didn't. It came down to the last shot of the game. That was fun. That's an undermanned Grizzlies team without their best player playing against the best team in basketball this year, coming down to the wire and back-to-back games. The game before that was a 29-point comeback from the best team in basketball to win that. Yesterday was an outstanding day of

basketball games. Last game sucked, but I did take 25 threes to be made in that game and they made like 30 so that was fine but Celtics magic game was pretty good wasn't like amazing but it was good the Lakers Timberwolves game was remarkable just fun back and forth and the best game of the day really the fourth quarter of the Pistons Knicks game was phenomenal the last couple minutes was just back and forth big bucket here I do not like Carl Anthony Towns he's got a face I don't like he's just a dude I don't dig I'd like I just dislike Carl Anthony Towns but when Carl Anthony Towns is hooping and when he's on, Carl Anthony Towns is a monster. And if you watch the last couple of minutes of the game with Detroit,

it was a back and forth. Three-pointer on this side. Carl Anthony Towns throws up, you know, 35-foot-3. Bang, he hits it. Carl Anthony Towns comes back again. Fall away jumper on the baseline, almost behind the basket. Bang, hits that. They hit all the big shots and

went back and forth, back and forth, back and forth. And it came down to Detroit needing to hit a big shot to win. And then Detroit couldn't hit a big shot to win it. They had their shot. They ain't ready for that stage yet. But you look at a team like Detroit. If Detroit gets one more player to play with Cade Cunningham, don't know if it's going to be a big, don't know. I mean, there's guys out there that are stretch type fours that can open shit up. Maybe it's another wing player. Detroit has a chance to be monsters with the way things are set up in these. These ain't great. Like you look at them, they're taking the Knicks to the limit. They've lost by a combined three points the last two games to the Knicks. They could be right there. Cleveland ain't something special, so they could

be right there. That's where we are in that situation. But playoff basketball has been fun. I've enjoyed watching it. And then tonight you got the Rockets. It's a must win, obviously, for the Rockets. I think the Rockets are going to win. Let's take a look, actually, at the point spread in this one tonight. Let's see. Let's go to the NBA. I'm sure they're underdogs. They are a three and a half point underdog. I think they're going to win.

Maybe I'm stupid, but I think this is going to be similar to the bounce back they had in game two. I mean, look, just go to Jalen Green. Look at the numbers. You lost by nine. Jalen Green on a given night it's going to give you at least 20 the other night he had damn near 40 if Jalen Green gets you to 20 that's 11 more points boom I mean like that's as simple as that you lost by nine he's got 11 but then you start looking around the rest of it what you need like we said going into game two

you needed more three-point productivity if you were going to get they had six threes in game one i said get to 10 and get jaylen green to 20 points you're going to win they won the game this last game though um let's see they had 11 three points like that's fine the rockets can live with 11 threes the rockets are not a team that's going to go out and hit 18 19 threes that's not their mo they get 11 threes. That's not their MO. They get 11 threes, you're feeling pretty good. The difference, of course, in the game is that Jalen Green was a no-show offensively and ended up with nine points.

If Jalen Green gets you 20 points, you win. If he's in the 20 to 25-point range and you get exactly what you got from everybody else, if you get three threes from Dylan Brooks, if you get Fred Van Vliet to give you three of nine from three, you'd like four threes from him. But if you don't get it, you don't get it. If Jabari Smith hits three threes, if you get what you got out of everyone. And by the way, that's a day where you were not getting offensive rebounds, which is a key component of what you do.

Steven Adams had kind of a down day rebounding. You do that, you're going to win the game. Let's see. Let's look at what the, God, this game's at nine o'clock tonight uh 203 is the total that means the Rockets team total is going to be less than 100 god I may need to go bet on that like let's see their total is 99 and a half like how the fuck do you not take the Rockets at 99 and a half like I know they scored 85 in game one, but they bounced back again. It kind of comes down to this is Jalen green going to score more than nine points, right? They scored 94 points

last game with 93 points last game with Jalen green scoring nine. If he gets to 20, I'm going to guess his total in this game is going to be somewhere over under 20 and a half, 19 and a half. If he does that, you get to 100. Let's see. Let's take a look at what his points are. Player points, Jalen Green, his total is over 18 and a half. If Jalen Green gets you to 19, 20 points, you're getting to 100. I think I have to go bet on that today. Jilly tries to,

we try to slow things down. She's not big on putting miles on this newer car that we got, I guess now a year and four months ago, because she doesn't want to run it into the ground, which I get, but we don't have another car because our other car died.

So if we drive over to Illinois, it's like a 30-mile drive to go to Illinois to put this in, but I feel really good about the Rockets getting to 100 because I think Jalen Green is going to hoop tonight. They're a three-and-a-half-point dog. By the way, what is their – to win the series?

I don't know. I'm not as confident about them winning the series as I was, obviously. Let's see. The Lakers are currently – what's wild is the Lakers are only plus 385 to win that series, and they're down 3-1. I mean, it's almost valuable to take Minnesota as a minus 500

if you want to parlay these series winners. The Rockets are plus 290 right now to win that series, down two games to one, plus 290. Let's see. the clippers and the nugs that another game that was fucking bonkers have you ever seen any game in that way where you're talking about a split nanosecond between being uh no basket and being a basket to end it like the joker throws up an air ball that's dunked back home by gordon and when you watch the slow

motion replay that's right in the net. Like if it was called no basket on the court, it'd be no basket. But since it was called a basket, you had to keep it like it was that game was bonkers though. Cause you look at the Clippers who were getting mauled for most of that game, Clippers bounce back and tie it late and then lose great game. I get it. A lot of you don't like basketball. A lot of you don't like the messaging of basketball. I get it. I respect that. I'm not telling you to go out and watch basketball during the regular season. But playoff basketball has been very good this year so far. Fun series, good shit. Even like a sweep like the series with the Thunder,

two of the games, the last two that were in Memphis were hyper competitive games. Let's build a parlay here. I still think the Clippers are going to win the series. So we're going to go Clippers to win the series. We're going to go Minnesota minus 500. That doesn't help anybody, but I'm going to take the chance of them winning one before the Lakers win three. God, Anthony Edwards is fun to watch. God, he's just a stud. He's got a great attitude on the court. Like he's cocky, but it's a fun kind of cocky. You know, it's not like when you watch Draymond Green, who's obnoxious and terrible. It's like, he's fun. And he's smiling like young dude that smiles on the basketball court. That's fun to me. And he's fun and he's smiling like young dude that smiles on the basketball court that's fun to me and he's just good and he's an old school type of player who's a volume shooter it's like watching Kobe you know like he's gonna shoot 17 threes a game and if he hits five of them good

like that's just who he is I love watching him play I mean I guess I'll I I think I've shifted against the Rockets but let's say I stick with the Rockets in that one. Let's see. Then we go to the East, and the Knicks and Pistons has no value. The Pacers-Bucks has no value. The Celtics-Magic has. Those series, none of them have value, so there's no point. So there's not much you can do there.

But for tonight's game, I think you take over 18.5 points for Jalen Green. He's got to bounce back. He did it in game two. I think he does it in game four. And I do think the Rockets, look, if the Rockets, as I said, if he gets to 20, they're going to win because that's what was missing in game three. It's pretty simple. Maybe I'm oversimplifying it.

Maybe you're not going to get three threes from Dylan Brooks. It might be one of his one for nine games or Van Fleet might go one for 10. But if this team, basically this, if they keep it around 10 to 11 threes, which I think is realistic for them, if they hit 10 to 11 threes and Jalen Green is over 20, they're going to win. And I think he's going to get over 20. Therefore, I think they're going to win. There you go. All right. More to come.