The Josh Innes Show - Championship Game Predictions

Episode Date: January 23, 2026

Let's look at these two matchups and pick winners. Sean Payton winning would be the worst thing to ever happen in my sports fan life. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right. Who's winning this weekend, guys? First of all, I don't think Sean Payton's going to win, and I hope Sean Payton doesn't win because I despise Sean Payton and I want nothing to do with Sean Peyton winning anything. And I've said this before, and I stand by this. If Sean Payton takes Jared Stidham to the Super Bowl, it will go down as the worst moment of my sports fan life. mind you, I sat in the Superdome in 2019 when the Saints played the Rams. I had the tickets. I was sitting in great seats watching that game unfold. They were minutes away from going to their second Super Bowl.

It would have altered history. I would have gotten to witness a team going to the Super Bowl. It would have been amazing. Maybe I would have gone to the game because we would have been traveling for the Super Bowl with the radio show anyway. And it would have been amazing. And that hurt. And that was one of the worst moments ever. At this point, that is the worst sports fan moment I have ever had.

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Always read and follow the label. The worst sports fan moment was that moment. I've told you that many times. Leaving the stadium, nobody was speaking. There wasn't a sound. I've never experienced anything like that in my life. And I've been in stadiums or teams have lost. You'll hear the occasional person yell about how fucked up the game was or something.

Like, that always happens. I have never left a stadium that quiet that was that loud before. I've never experienced that. As we all walked out, it was heartbreaking. But if Sean Peyton takes Jared Stiddam to the Super Bowl, it will be the most crushing thing that has ever happened to me as a sports fan. And that, my friends, cannot happen. We cannot accept this. It cannot go down that way.

And why, Josh? Why? Because I'm a Saints fan. And we've talked about it. I watched the Saints and Sean Payton blow opportunities. after opportunity to go to another Super Bowl. Okay. I've witnessed this.

I've lived it. Okay. I watched losing to Alex Smith. I watched losing to Case Keenham on a miracle play. I watched the Kirk Cousins march down the field and overtime and eliminate the saints from the playoffs. I've watched the Beast Quake. I've watched the Saints blow. I watched Jared.

What's his fuck? the pass that led to the interception that set the Tampa going the other way and set them up to win that game in the dome. I watched all that stuff happen. And it sucks to watch that happen. So the last thing I want to see is Sean Payton take his new family and not only his new family, but his new family along with his backup quarterback and do something that Drew and the guys didn't do in that amazing run after the Super Bowl.

I don't want to witness it. I don't want to watch it. I don't want to see it. I think I speak for the majority of Saints fans when I say that. Look, again, in 10 years, we'll all love Sean Payton. If Sean Payton currently wasn't coaching Denver, great. If we didn't have to go through the four or five playoff years that we had that ended with the Saints not making the Super Bowl again, if we didn't have to live through

beast quake, if we didn't have to live through Alex Smith beating us, okay? If that would have never happened, then maybe it's a different story. But we don't want to see Dad with his new family forgetting about us going somewhere else and winning the Super Bowl. And not only that, but taking Jared fucking Stiddam to the Super Bowl. Jared Stidham. Be one thing if he took his own quarterback, which would suck anyway. Like if Bo Nix goes to a Super Bowl, that would suck. Jared Stidham going to the Super Bowl with Sean Payton as his coach.

which would be the worst sports moment I've ever had in my life. And I've watched the Cardinals lose the World Series. I've been in there in person watching them lose World Series games. I have been in Tiger Stadium at LSU when I was there for the T.J. Yeldon game, when they should have beaten Alabama. I mean, I've seen some pretty fucking horrible things and lived through some pretty fucking horrible sports things. Nothing will top watching Sean Payton take Jared Stiddam to the Super Bowl. I don't care about anything else that happens this weekend.

The one thing that cannot happen is Jared Stidham and Sean Payton going to the championship, going to the Super Bowl, winning the AFC championship. And really, I hope they get their dicks knocked off. Look, he's already got an excuse anyway. So it's not as gratifying as it would be if he lost with Bo Nix. But boy, it would, like, it would suck ass. You can call me bitter. You can say I'm whatever.

Fine. Rock on. But Josh, he won a Super Bowl. and the Saints were shit before him. Yeah, I love the guy for that. And I always will. And if he weren't coaching Denver right now and the Saints weren't dog shit, it'd be a different story. But the Saints are dog shit and he is coaching Denver right now. So I can't ride with this. I cannot accept it. Now, the good news is the Patriots should win.

The thing is, they're only a four and a half point favorite. Denver's getting a lot of credit. Maybe it's the playing at home. They do have a good defense. I think they're getting way too much credit. Now, maybe Vegas knows something we don't know. But I think that's a lot of credit given to a team that doesn't have a starting quarterback. And that's to face a team that can move the ball. Now, maybe the defense will just ball out. And maybe in this first opportunity to do this, maybe you'll get a disastrous game from Drake.

Maybe that's very possible. And maybe it becomes a defensive game and you make one big play and maybe the Patriots miss a kick. But the Patriots are well coached. They're well quarterback. And they're facing Jared Stiddom. and I don't know how you end up in a universe like this where you say well wait a minute there's only a four and a half point spread in this game

I just I can't fathom that being the case but again maybe Vegas knows something but the way it stands right now is I think that the Patriots are going to win they should win and if you said Josh you had to put money on it right now if you had to bet which direction you would go at the spread

I'd say it's a more likely possibility that the Patriots win that game by 10 to 14 points than it is for the Broncos to win the game or lose by less than five. I think you can come out and play well early. Like you have a backup quarterback. You have a plan. You script some plays. You can move the ball down the field and then early in the game and give your team a little bit of hope. But at the end of it, it's still Jared Stidham. And there's a reason why Jared Stidham isn't your starter.

And there's a reason why Jared Stidham isn't a starter anywhere. you could argue that Josh, you can say that about any quarterback, and backup quarterbacks have won big games before, see Nick Foles, blah, blah, blah. Yeah, well, I'm with you. But if you said, what is more likely to happen? Route for New England starts out a little fun, then it's a route, or Denver keeps it competitive into the fourth quarter.

I do not believe Denver's going to keep it competitive into the fourth quarter. So I would go New England to win big, or at least win, but if I get gun to your head, which you take, and I'm taking New England to win big. and I think the Rams are going to go to Seattle and win that one. Now, there's really no reason to believe that other than the fact that they've got Matt Stafford. Matt Stafford's going to win the MVP of the league. And they got Puka.

They're well coached. I mean, they struggled in really their first two playoff games. They weren't over. I mean, look, they very well could have lost either one of those games. Had to rally to beat Carolina and had to hang on and beat Chicago. So they went on the road, played in a cold weather place, we're able to win. Fine. Seattle favored. Seattle at home. Seattle defensively very good. It's going to be loud. I mean, I do radio shit as you've learned. I do radio shit in Seattle. Like those tickets are going for $7,800 a pop. I mean, it's a big deal there. But there's a part of me, a giant part of me that is of the belief that at some point Sam Darnel turns into a pumpkin.

and maybe this is it. I don't want to operate in a universe or live in a world where there's a possibility that Sam Darnold is taking a team to the Super Bowl. And maybe that's just my bias. That is my anti-Sam Darnold bias. I just struggle to live in a universe where Sam Darnold is potentially a Super Bowl quarterback. My brain cannot accept that. There's not a computation in my brain that will allow me to believe that Sam Darnold is

quarterbacking a team to the Super Bowl. Now he's seemingly a better situation than he was last year when he turned the ball over a ton in the playoffs for the Vikings. But I got a chance to take Stafford and they've been my pick the whole time. But Stafford, I like Puka. I like Devante. Defensively, they've been sketch. I get that.

But what can they do? It all comes down to Sam Darnold. If Sam Darnold isn't the Sam Darnold we think we know, they'll win the game. If Sam Darnold is the Sam Darnold that we've all grown to know and anticipate him being, I mean, he didn't have to do anything against the 49ers. That game was off to a fast start anyway. Sam Darnold didn't have a chance to fuck that game up for them. He didn't play particularly well, but he didn't have a chance to fuck the game up for them

because it was never really a game. If this is a game, can you get into a situation where Sam Darnold fucks up? Can you for it? Like Stafford may turn the ball over, but I don't go into a game with Matt Stavre and go, well, I worry about Matt Stafford. Like, he's a pro. He figures shit out. He's been there, done that. Stafford, there may never come a time when we look at Matt Stafford and go,

I feel pretty good about where Matt Stafford's at in this game. It won't exist. So I'm going to ride with the Rams because I just believe that Matt Stafford is better. And I believe that at some point, we are due for a Sam Darnold to be Sam Darnold. And perhaps this is that day. And that's all I'm banging on. So I'm going to parlay the Rams who give you good value at plus 120. I'm going to take the Rams.

And I'm going to take the Patriots who give you really good value for a team that's got their starting quarterback against a backup. And not a particularly good backup. I think the value, if you parlay the two of them is like plus two something, that's pretty solid. You know, for, again, you're getting one team that should win with very good value. And another team that's the underdog plus one. I like it. So that's what I'm going to ride with in that one. So I'm going Rams and I'm going Patriots.

And that will be a rematch of the 2001 Super Bowl that launched Tom Brady when they defeated the greatest show on turf. More to come.