The Josh Innes Show - Fun MNF Game and MVP Odds

Episode Date: December 3, 2024

How much fun was that Monday Night game? As much as I dislike Sean Payton, it's pretty remarkable what he's done with Bo Nix. Is there value on taking a Sean Payton Coach Of The Year Bet? What about a Bo Nix Rookie of the Year bet? Why is Saquon Barkley still way below Josh Allen in the MVP race? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The following was recorded from inside an ice plunge. Ah! Woo! Okay. All right. When a Coors Light is cold enough, the mountains on the can turn blue. So the next time you want a cold lager, cold filter, cold package Coors Light, just wait until those glorious mountains on the can turn blue.

It's easy to say that fast when you're freezing gold. All right, Jamokes, welcome in. It's about 8.55 here on Tuesday. And welcome in. Glad you're with me today. Great Monday night game last night. I mean, who would have thought that game was going to be a great Monday night game, but it turned out to be outstanding. Like things you

probably have never seen in your life happened in that game, but a remarkable, fun game in which I won a lot of fucking bets on. Look, I'm a degenerate. I tell you about this all the time, and since I can't bet from the house because I live in Missouri, where sports

betting has been legalized, but it's not in effect yet. So I have to drive to Illinois to put in my bets. So Jilly and I went over to Illinois and had a nice romantic lunch in the parking lot of the Burger King. By the way, it's cold as shit here. It snowed a couple days ago. The snow is still on the ground. It was snowing yesterday, and it's cold. Yet somehow this weekend it's going to be in the 60s. It's very bizarre. Global warming and what have you. But so we're sitting over there

we put our bets in around lunchtime and like somehow that's not even somehow because it just always happens. Jilly knows that no matter what happens no matter what time we go put bets in sometime in the first quarter of the game I'm gonna going to say, Nope, I got to get up and go put in live bets. Cause I tell you every day that live bets are the way to make cash. I like prop bets. I like live bets. I don't fuck around with spreads very often. I don't fuck around with money lines very often. I don't fuck around with over unders very often. I fuck with prop bets and I fuck with live bets. That's what I'm into. And I just had a whole damn plethora of live bets, most of which had to do with receivers and passing yesterday. So it was just like nonstop bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. Had both quarterbacks

to throw for 15 yards in each quarter, which, by the way, is positive money. You get like plus 120 on both quarterbacks to throw for 15 yards in a quarter. Bang. I had both quarterbacks to throw for 30 yards in each quarter. Bang. I had Bo Nix to throw for 25 yards on his own in each quarter. Bang. I had Jerry Judy over like 57 and a half receiving yards.

That was like six times. Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. I had Jerry Judy over like 57 and a half receiving yards. That was like six times. Bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. I had Cortland Sutton on his own receiving yards. Bang. David Njoku receiving yards. Bang. And then now the live bet stuff. And again, I really hope that you guys get to experience this. It's truly fun when you're winning, when you're losing and then you're, you know, broken, you're like 20 grand in debt. I understand that that might be your thought process. Don't go to extremes like Uncle Josh did. But Uncle Josh is so fucking buried in this shit now.

I got to do what I got to do. It just gives me my rush, right? So I went over, and at halftime, you had the option to take Jameis Winston to throw for 400 yards. And that was like plus 300 I think at halftime he had like I forgot how much he had like what two I think it's 245 he put together that last great drive of the half and um right before that drive I decided to put in Jameis to get to 400 so So he puts together that great 80 something yard drive. They score the touchdown, get back into the game. And at halftime, he's got 245. And I took him to get to 400, which was still like plus 300 something. I also just took him to take his actual over,

which because 400 was an elevated total that gave you more juice, give you more action. So more possible win. So I also took his number that was 384 and a half before the game i took him to throw for over 230 something and a half i took uh bo nix to throw for over 220 and a half in a game i mean it was just non-stop bang bang bang bang bang live bets pre-game bets last night was a fun freaking game from a betting standpoint and from a watching standpoint. Rarely are games like super fun in that way, but that one was. And you got the full Jameis party with the four touches, nearly 500 yards. You also got the three interceptions, two were taken to the house. Everything about that was fun. the first time I saw Jameis play in person,

not like I've seen him play in person a ton, but when I was in Philadelphia, I guess his rookie year would have been 2014 or 2015. I know we were still in Philly. Obviously he was with Tampa. And he came into Lincoln Financial Field and just balled out against Chip Kelly and the Eagles and ended up winning the game. I think he won the game. Again, it was 10 years ago. I don't remember everything.

But the guy, when he's on, he can do magical things, but he's magical in the way that he can do so many awesome things and then do so many dumb things all in the same game. And in some cases on back-to-back plays that you're like wow like he made this great throw to get a first down great throw and catch to get a first down right before the two-minute warning at the end of the game while all they needed to do was get in field goal range to win the game I mean they're driving there's two minutes they're like at the 40 yard line 35 40 yard line they're in fine shape's two minutes. They're like at the 40-yard line, 35, 40-yard line. They're in fine shape. They can do whatever they need to do to get into field goal range.

It's a mile high. You can kick it, you know, two miles if you want to. Like, it's perfect. Amazing throw after he'd taken a sack on the first play. They do a little dump off to get a couple yards. I think it was to Njoku. And then they complete a pass to the outside that may or may not have been a catch, but it was called a catch, ruled a to catch and you get the first down you make that throw you're like this dude this

dude can ball and then the very next throw is a horrible out route that's thrown way behind the receiver and is intercepted for a touchdown like those two plays kind of just sum up like that drive sums up jamis take a bad sack when you can't afford to take a sack. Dump off to get some extra yards to make third down more manageable. Incredible third down completion that continues the drive. Dreadful interception that results in a pick six

and basically ends the game. Or you had a great moment in the game where Bo Nix throws a 97-yard touchdown on third down. Then the very next play, you got Jameis throwing Nix throws a 97 yard touchdown on third down. Then the very next play, you got Jameis throwing like a 70 something yard touchdown to Jerry Judy, who I love when shit like this happens. I love when guys like Jerry Judy who were left for dead by an organization, the fan base hates them. They're booing them mercilessly when they come back to play against their old team. I love when dudes go out and can shut people up. I love it.

Dude has, again, this is kind of a stat that, you know, who cares, but ESPN put it up on the screen last night. The most receiving yards for a player playing against his former team. Dude had like 235 yards last night. I took him to have like 62 or something like that he did that seven times uh he did that on one catch really two he had a couple of major catches last night but just an outstanding game a lot of times you'll get games and they might be close but they're not really compelling they're not really interesting they're not really fun that game was compelling

interesting fun look at what Sean Payton look I hate Sean Payton you know how I feel about Sean They're not really fun. That game was compelling, interesting, fun. Look at what Sean Payton, look, I hate Sean Payton. You know how I feel about Sean Payton. I detest Sean Payton. I hate the way he left the Saints. In 10 years, I'll love the guy again. In five years, I'll love the guy again. But Drew Brees retires and Sean says,

I don't want to coach anymore. Then two years later, you're coaching the damn Broncos. And now you're taking Bo Nix, who felt like a guy who was never going to really be anything you look at him he's this little dude bounced from uh auburn to oregon heisman finalist but is he really going to do anything and all he's doing is making a legitimate case for rookie of the year like that's something that we've been you know talking about we've talked about jayden Daniels like he's a stone cold lead pipe lock for rookie of the year. Not so fast. Let's get into that and some other stuff.

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pick six credits that expire in 14 days. Limited time offer. See terms at pick6.draftkings.com slash promos. All right. So as far as rookie of the year, if you're looking for another betting angle here, you know, I think there's a chance that Bo Nix steals this thing. I heard him on the broadcast last night talking about how Sean Payton should be the coach of the year because he's doing all this with a rookie quarterback, and they kind of ignored Dan Quinn the way Joe Buck was talking, like no other coach is being successful with a rookie quarterback.

Well, Dan Quinn is being successful with a rookie quarterback in Washington. I believe they have the same record. But let's see here. I need to find some current rookie of the year odds. Now, I have some odds here coming into this week, but I'm trying to find them. So Jaden Daniels is the favorite. Bo Nix is not a long shot at this point. Going into the game last night, he was plus 160. I would imagine now, and maybe I can look on FanDuel here. I should have thought of this before I started yapping, but I would imagine Bo Nix might be dead on even with Jaden Daniels. Daniels was the runaway.

Nobody was close. Bo Nix is playing remarkable. He's, for the most part, taking care of the ball. He's making big throws, tough throws. He's getting getting out of the pocket for as much as I really hate Sean Payton at this point in life and I do and again I love the guy won the Saints a Super Bowl when he was you know being a dickhead when he was the Saints coach I love it when he's being a dickhead as the Broncos coach I hate it I'm allowed to feel that way I am a sports fan I can feel how I want to feel. And how I feel about Sean Payton is that I fucking hate him right now. I loved him for 20 years in New Orleans. The second he's no longer the Denver coach, I will love him again. But right now is the Denver coach who bolted on the Saints and has now turned Bo Nix into Drew Brees. And I have to watch goddamn Derek Carr.

I hate him. And I'm allowed to feel that way. Let me see. Season awards. So right now the MVP, like I also think this is bullshit that Josh Allen is minus 280 to win the MVP award. Like what has Josh Allen done that's any more special or different than anything Josh Allen has ever done? Oh, because his wide receiver left and they're winning a bunch of games in what might be the worst division in the NFL. The fuck out of here with Josh Allen. Oh, congrats. You're dominating the AFC East. What with juggernauts like the two of us for most of the season, two of us dolphins or the, the, the noodle armed, uh, Aaron Rogers or the Patriots, but congrats. You're dominating that division. Give me Saquon freaking Barkley. If Saquon Barkley doesn't win the MVP, it is a farce. He's currently plus 500

to win league MVP. Where would that team be without him? Jalen Hurts is not, like I still don't believe Jalen Hurts is that special. If they had to count on Jalen Hurts to win them games, they wouldn't be what they are right now. But look at where they were as a two and two football team and look at where they are now playing great football, beating teams, beating good teams now. Now it's not just, oh, they went out and beat the Browns and they barely beat the Browns and fire the coach. And if you want to tell me they're winning in spite of Sirianni, that's fine. If you don't like Sirianni, don't like him. He's a hard on. I get all that. I don't like him he's a hard on I get all that I don't like him either however they're going out and they're winning games and they're beating teams they

should beat and they're beating teams they you know are toss-ups like last week against the Ravens on the road winning that game Saquon Barkley is dominating and what's most impressive about Barkley is what he does late in games to help put games away. Seems like every week, Saquon Barkley starts out kind of fine. You're like, oh, look, Saquon's doing this. And then in the fourth quarter, the dude's going to give you a 40-yard touchdown that's going to ice the game. And by the way, I think we'd be viewing him a lot different if we didn't have touchdown vulture hurts taking like seven, eight, nine touchdowns

from the one-yard line. Any other team that's not doing the tush push is giving the ball to Saquon, and Saquon's taking that shit into the end zone. He's got double the touchdowns he's got. Barkley is the MVP. Don't give me Josh Allen. Oh, but he lost Diggs. Who cares? Look at who he's got to throw to. That's the job of the quarterback. Look at the guys that Brady threw to for most of his career. That's just the way it works. Honestly, for the most part, you can look at some of the guys that a lot of times this season that Mahomes has had to throw to. Like, yes, there's still Travis Kelsey. And now that they've gotten DeAndre Hopkins,

you could say it's a little bit different. And Hopkins has been fine for them. But they've been without key pieces on their offense too. Pacheco's missed a lot of time. You've had receivers getting hurt. Noah Gray is making big plays. Justin Watson makes big plays. So, like, that's part of the job.

When you sign up to be an NFL quarterback, part of the job is you might have to take guys who aren't all that good, and you've got to make them better. And let's be real. There are some teams that are losing and not playing well that have multiple elite receivers. See the Jets. The Jets have two high-end wide receivers, and Aaron Rodgers can't get on the ball consistently, and they stink. So, like, look, you want to give a guy credit? Hell, give Drake May some credit.

I mean, if you want to go rookie of the year talk, Drake May, who the fuck's he throwing to in New England? But look, minus 280 for Josh Allen. I don't get it. Like, I have nothing against Josh Allen. He's fine. He's going to lose to Mahomes in the playoffs. That's the way it works.

But Saquon Barkley at plus 500, I might just get in on it anyway and root for it. Because I love watching this dude run. I love watching him play. I love the way he's been playing. Plus 500. Lamar at plus 850, I think is this dude run. I love watching him play. I love the way he's been playing. Plus 500. Lamar at plus 850 I think is pretty much dead. Mahomes, 1500. Goff, 1500.

Jordan Love, 6500. There's nobody in there that really has a legit shot at that. You know how I feel stupid. I feel really dumb because early in the year I was touting Kirkland Cousins, somewhat jokingly, somewhat somewhat seriously as the MVP obviously he's fallen off a cliff bless his heart uh here's what I love too is that so Saquon Barkley is minus 470 to win the offensive player of the year I enjoy the idea that somehow you can be the league MVP playing offense but you're not the offensive player of the year.

Like that happened to Drew Brees. Brees never won the MVP, but Brees would be the offensive player of the year. I'm like, well, I guess they just want to, you know, be, they want to be, you know, benevolent and, you know, be democratic in this and let multiple people win awards. Well, if Josh Allen is the MVP and he plays offense, then why isn't he the offensive player of the year too? That's stupid. But Saquon Barkley should be the MVP. Let's see. Other candidates for offensive player of the year, Derek Henry at plus 420. But the

Henry Express has kind of been derailed the last couple of weeks. Saquon just keeps on trucking. I'm telling you, when the Eagles can run the ball, when the Eagles can consistently run the ball like they've been doing and take the pressure off of Jalen Hurts, who can make major mistakes that cost them games, he was early in the year. When they can just settle in and feed the beast, Saquon, and then Jalen can break a couple of runs, they might be unstoppable offensively. And they run a kind of offense which is even worse because they can death by a thousand cut you because they can run seven eight minutes off the clock and go get a Tud and that's a killer so I'm loving the Eagles right now let's see offensive rookie of the year so the current leader is still Jaden Daniels at minus 270 but Bo Nix is plus 240 look neither one of these teams were expected to do anything.

So if you're looking for kind of like a checklist of like what we should look at for this, neither guy was supposed to be part of a good team. Both of them are playoff teams at this point. Although I think Denver is overall better than Washington. And I think Washington, although they dominated the Titans the other day, I still, I don't think Washington's very good. I think they benefited from the schedule, and now you move forward and you go. They've played better teams.

The better teams have now beaten them, but they also have a very manageable schedule where they'll probably get to 10, 11 wins. But the Broncos were supposed to be nothing. Bo Nix was drafted after Jaden Daniels. I mean, I think there's something to be said about Bo. At plus 240, there's not a ton of value on that. Brock Bowers at plus 1,200. Look, Ladd McConkie is plus 6,500 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

Guy had 120 receiving yards last week. He's the number one target for Justin Herbert. He's out there catching everything. Brock Bowers has been great too, but Bowers isn't going to get as much run because he plays for the Raiders and he's a receiver. The quarterbacks are always going to get more love. But if you look at Jaden Daniels, Daniels has been the guy that everybody's kind of circled basically for the entire season saying this guy is the league's offensive rookie of the year and like I think Bo Nix has made a legit strong case for that last night doing what he did throwing for 300 yards going toe-to-toe with

Jameis in that game making huge throw after huge throw and by the way these guys aren't throwing cheapies either that was what was fun about that game is a lot of times you'll watch a game and you'll get dink dunk dink dunk guy bust dunk, guy busts a big one. We're watching dudes throwing 70, you know, 97 yard tuts. And sometimes you get a 97 yard tut on a screen pass. No, we're talking like 50 something, 60 something air yards on these bad boys. Bang, bang, back and forth. That was just a fun back and forth football game. Kind of reminded me of a playoff game the Saints played against the 49ers back in, I guess it was 11 or 12, against the 49ers where Drew's throwing haymakers and Alex Smith is throwing haymakers. It's a fun back and forth. Kind of reminded me of that last

night. But as of right now, the value isn't as great on taking Bo Nix to win rookie of the year as it is to take Saquon to be MVP, but plus 500 on Fan Duel ain't bad there. Let's see. Let's go to the Coach of the Year. So Dan Campbell is currently the favorite to be Coach of the Year at plus 175. To me, Coach of the Year, if you just want to give it to the best coach in the league, fine. That's Dan Campbell because his team is currently the best team in the league. I want to give it to people and coaches whose teams were not supposed to do anything and have overachieved. That's how I feel about coach of the year.

Your team went into it, the expectations were low, and you overachieved. Dan Campbell hasn't overachieved. The expectations were very high, and they've lived up to the expectations. Kevin O'Connell, a second at plus 380. I guess if you want to give the guy credit by, you know, taking a team that had Sam Darnold. Well, part of the problem is they kind of use Sam Darnold as like, oh, wow, the backup quarterback came in. Well, who's to say that J.J. McCarthy was going to be the starter anywhere or anywhere would have been any good. It's not like, you know like you lost Patrick Mahomes and Chad Henney played the whole season

and took them to 14 wins. That's a little bit different. I wouldn't put O'Connell in there. Tomlin deserves a lot of credit. He's at plus 550. They start the season with Rusty on the bench. He's hurt. He makes the move to put Rusty in.

And the world's like, why would you do this? Your guy's playing well. Nobody wants to see Rusty. He's a has-been. He's washed. He sucks. Oh, and then Rusty throws for like 420 the other day. And he's played well in every game that he's played so far.

They continue to win. Like, to think of the Steelers winning eight games isn't a shocking thing. Or even nine games. They're the Steelers. eight games isn't a shocking thing or even nine games they're the Steelers they're always right around 500 but they're already at nine wins with a quarter of the season or a third of the season still to go so the Steelers have been very impressive and Mike Tomlin like I would put Mike Tomlin over Kevin O'Connell at this point uh let's see Jim Harbaugh look yeah gotta give him some credit but you still had Justin Herbert you walked into a situation where you've got Justin freaking Herbert who is a legit NFL starter

uh give him some credit but it's not as impressive as what you've gotten from Tomlin Peyton's at plus 850 I mean there's a case there um obviously with a rookie quarterback and what you've gotten out of Bo Nix you can debate it and I can tell you how much I hate Sean Payton, but Sean Payton has worked miracles here with Bo Nix. You know, you watch the guy, he's just cool, man. Like, holy shit. Good job, Sean Payton. I hate you, but good job. And Dan Quinn's at plus a thousand. Like why is Dan Quinn plus 1000 for taking a team that Like, why is Dan Quinn plus 1,000 for taking a team that was a nothing team, maybe the worst organization in the NFL, one of them, and taking them to the playoffs with Jaden Daniels,

yet Sean Payton gets more credit for taking a better franchise, a more well-run franchise, to the playoffs. And by the way, they both play in divisions that have elite-level teams ahead of them. I don't know. I don't think that Dan Quinn should be that far behind Sean Payton. Maybe they're just not giving Dan Quinn the credit. Maybe it's because Sean Payton is clearly a guy who works offense, works with quarterbacks, so you can give him more credit for the rise, the surge of Bo Nix than you would give Dan Quinn for Jaden Daniels. Either way, I think they should be even there. But, you know, Sean Payton at plus 850 is not a bad throw a couple of bucks on at bed.

You know, why not? What if they keep rolling? Like, they've got eight wins. They're going to go to the playoffs. They happen to play in the same division as Mahomes. And, oh, by the way, they play in the same division as the Chargers, who are very solid this year. So without a block kick, they have nine wins already.

So I don't know. If you're looking for just good value, Sean Payton at plus 850 is solid. I would say that Saquon Barkley at plus 500 for MVP is also very solid. He should be the MVP. Like, you can look at Payton and say whether or not you think he should, and it's debatable to be coach of the year. Saquon Barkley not only should be, he is the MVP of the league, and he deserves that respect.

Plus 500, I might go put that in today and just write it out for the rest of the year. All right, we'll do more in a little bit.