The Josh Innes Show - How The Texans Will Beat The Steelers

Episode Date: January 9, 2026

I do not believe in the Steelers. I don't believe in Rodgers. I don't believe in the defense. I don't believe in the skill guys. The only thing stopping the Texans from routing the Steelers is the Texans. Can they get TD's? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, continuing our look at the NFL playoffs. We have got the Houston Texans. That is right, friends. The Texans are taking on Pittsburgh at the end of the weekend. Monday night football. It is really remarkable that this is the first time the Texans haven't played that 430 Eastern game, and it's even more remarkable. It's the first time they've never won the wild card opportunity.

A lot of this is remarkable. It's also remarkable that they're even in the playoffs, considering how they started. It's remarkable that Pittsburgh, in the playoffs because Pittsburgh doesn't deserve to be in the playoffs. But here we are. Now, let's do this. Let's play a couple commercials and let's find ourselves breaking this thing down. We will do that after these words.

Fun fact about Mike Tomlin. Now, Mike Tomlin is a guy that people love, national people love him. I talk with a buddy of mine who's a Steelers fan. And a lot of Steelers fans just don't like Mike Tomlin. And they really hate that Steelers fans or that the media loves Tomlin, the national media. Local media doesn't necessarily love Tomlin. But the national media loves Mike Tomlin. And the local people hate that.

And the local media people hate that. And a part of the reason they hate Tomlin is they think it's gotten stale. They think it's, most importantly, whether it's gotten stale or not, a lot of things can get stale. Tomlin in the last decade has not won a playoff game. Really, let's see. They have won, they have not won a playoff game since 2016. So that's 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 22, 23, 24, 25. Nine years.

It has been nine years since the Pittsburgh Steelers have won a playoff game. And in that time frame, they have lost playoff games too. Well, I guess if you count this year, it'd be nine. years. So we'll see if they win one this year. So really it's been eight times that they've been in the playoffs in their last eight playoff attempts in the last eight years of football that have been concluded. They haven't won a playoff game. And in that stretch, they have lost two. The hated Baltimore Ravens in the wild card round. They have lost to the bills in the wild card round. They have missed the playoffs. They have lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in the wild card round. They have

lost to the Cleveland Browns as a 12-win football team. They lost to the Browns. They didn't make it. They didn't make it. 2017, they lost to the Jaguars in that stretch. And a lot of Pittsburgh people hate Mike Tomlin. They're fine with him. They think decent enough guy, whatever.

But they think the message has gotten stale and that it's over. Time to move on. The Tomlin stuff is over. Bringing somebody new, new blood, fresh blood, whole thing. And it probably would have happened. I don't know if I'd say it probably would have happened. I mean, you're looking at a football team. that's won 10 games three years in a row, right?

They won the division this year, first time since 2020, which was the Rone of year, fine. I don't know that he gets fired if they would have lost that game, but he certainly got a major stay of execution by winning it. And he got lucky. They got super lucky. Pittsburgh, to me, is not a good football team. I don't know that you are going to find a worse 10-win football team. Maybe ever.

Like, maybe that's not fair. Maybe that's an exaggeration. But this is a 10-win football team that is not a very good football team. It's a 10-win football team that really doesn't do anything particularly well. It's a 10-win football team that hasn't really beaten anybody worth a shit. Just go through their schedule, and look, I'll give it to you really quick. Find me the team on their schedule. How many games against good teams they've beaten.

Here are the teams they've beaten. The Jets. They did beat the Patriots in week three. Cool. Good win. Vikings, not a good win. Browns, not a good win. Colts at the time, I guess, but now looking back at it, not exactly some sort of impressive win. Bengals, not a good win. Ravens, twice. They're not in the playoffs. Dolphins, not a good win. Lions, not in the playoffs. How many teams that are currently in the postseason did the Steelers win? The correct answer is one. Now, in fairness, one of the first. One of the first. One of the first of the first. them didn't make the playoffs because you beat them twice. But that wasn't a good team either. You've beaten one playoff team. That playoff team was the Patriots, and it was three weeks ago before the Patriots went beast vote. Your losses are to Seattle, playoff team, Packers, playoff team, Chargers, playoff team, Bears, playoff team, bills, playoff team. And inexplicably the fucking Browns. They're not a good team. They're not a team. They're not a team.

I believe in. I don't really believe in Aaron Rogers, although, I mean, that fourth quarter, I will say this, the fourth quarter of that game really got nuts and really got fun. That I enjoyed, because I told you this, there was a point in that game because I like to look at, you know, the, like different bets that you can take in certain parts of the game, right? So I was looking at the, it was the two quarterbacks to combine for 500 passing yards, and they update that live throughout the game, and they change the. They changed the value on that throughout the game.

And at one point, it was like plus 2,000 for the two quarterbacks to combine for 500, which is pretty freaking bonkers, right? Like, I think there was 150 passing yards total in the first half. Like something stupid like that. Like, it was not impressive. And then I think the game got to like 600. So if you would have bet $100 when it was plus $2,000, would have won $2,000. bucks. But anyway, that's just gambling mumbo-jumbo.

I'm not, and it was fun. The way Aaron was throwing the ball late in the game, it was fun. And they're getting D-K back. They didn't have D-K in that game and yet still threw for like 300 yards eventually. So again, look at it for what it is. D.K. makes them better. They are a better football team without that dip shit or a worst football team without him. They are better with him. That's a fact. So that's something to pay attention to. That's a guy you have to pay attention to. Their offensive line is not impressive. Their defense is overrated. I don't even think it's overrated. I think certain players are overrated. Like Watts, fine, whatever. I think the idea of the Steelers is overrated. The Texans are a better team. I think they're a considerably

better team. They're a team playing better football. They have a quarterback who has now won two playoff games in his career. CJ Stroud has won two playoff games and has been in the league for three years. Mike Tomlin has been the coach of the Steelers for the last two decades. He hasn't want a playoff game in eight years. Rogers, get he's in his 40s now, so take it for what it is, but he's a checkdown Charlie. A lot of passes to the running backs. You're going to see a fuck ton, because the Texans are going to get after them. The Texans up front are going to be able to feast. They are going to be able to eat against the Steelers. So what you're going to see is, and if you want to look at props and I don't have the props in front of me, but I'm going to go so far as

to say that there's a very good possibility that what you're going to see is Jalen Warren. Here's a bold prediction for you. Jalen Warren and Gaines, Gainwell, Kenneth Gainwell, are going to combine for somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 or 13 catches. That is going to be my bold proclamation about this game. I'm going to say 12 to 13 catches are going to be made by the two running backs in this game. just from Pittsburgh. I mean, look at what they did last week. I don't have the number in front of me,

but I think those two combined for 12, 13 catches would be my guess just based on watching the game. I've never looked at the box score because who gives a shit. But if I'll look at it right now just for good measure. Pittsburgh receiving. Kenneth Gainwell, eight catches. Jalen Warren, five.

They combined for 13 catches. Their tight-in play is whatever. They don't get it to Fryer Muth is enough. And when they do, they don't really stretch the field. Now they're going to stretch the field more presumably because they're going to have Metcalf back. Outside of that, they're going to throw it to the running back a lot. And that's just by design a lot of the time. But it's also because Texas is going to get after that ass. Texas is going to eat that ass.

It's going to be a rough night for Aaron Rogers. And they're going to have to throw a lot of balls to running backs. That's not a bold take in this thing either. going to have to throw the ball to the running backs a ton. 13 times last week, it's going to be more of the same this week. And that's where they're going to get a lot of their passing yards. You're going to look at the end of the day and go, wait, Aaron Rogers through for 294? Yeah, because the running backs combined for 13 catches and 100 yards.

I just don't think you're going to be able to beat the Texans that way because the Texans are going to get after it. They're going to make Rogers life hell. He's not going to be able to escape the pocket. They are going to crush up front. here's where the game is going to be won and lost. Keep this in mind. Zay Flowers, you saw the breakdowns the Pittsburgh defense had. And granted, that's Lamar, and Lamar is able to extend the play a little bit, and he's

a threat to run. And a couple of these are based on big plays. But Zay Flowers had a couple of huge plays. Like, that's the kind of thing you're going to see. You're also able to run the ball against Pittsburgh. Now, a lot of this came in the first half, but Derek Henry had 126 yards. Kind of slowed down in the second half, had a couple of big runs in there. but like Derek Henry was able to feast.

I think the Texans are going to be able to run the ball as well. So here's where the game is going to be won and lost and this is obvious. I know I've spent a lot of time talking about Pittsburgh, but instead of the Texans, fine. But here's what you're going to end up with. If the Texans, and this is easy. I mean, this is obviously simple and this is something that everyone knows, and this is something that is well documented about any football team. if the Texans get touchdowns instead of field goals, not only will they win, they will win by double digits.

Because I don't think Pittsburgh's going to score on these guys. Baltimore's defense blows. And mind you, Pittsburgh had 13 points through three quarters. They scored 13 in the fourth quarter. That's what made it look more impressive offensively. That was a shootout. The fourth quarter of that game was stupid. But if you look at what Pittsburgh's done throughout most of the season, Pittsburgh has not been a team that's going to go out and score a,

but a ton of points against everybody. You know, you've seen when they face better defense. Yeah, they scored 29 points against the Lions. Lions defense stinks. Oh, they scored 28 against the Dolphins. Guess what? The Dolphins defense stinks. You face the bills who have a good defense, they scored seven.

You face the Chargers who have a good defense, they scored 10 and lost. So you face the Browns, salty defensive team. Scored six. I tell you all that to tell you this. if the Texans score sevens instead of field goals, the Texans are going to win this thing easily. Because these guys are that much better. They're better up front.

I like their skill guys. I like their tight end better. I like the quarterback play overall better, not history, but current football. I like the quarterback better. The Texans, if they can score. Mind you, it's important to know. that Kami Fairbairns are breaking records for a number of field goals made in the year.

The Texans stall. If the Texans stall, they will keep them in the game. The only thing that will keep Pittsburgh in this game is if the Texans keep them in the game. If the Texans score touchdowns, they will win by 14 to 20 points. I'm not a believer in Pittsburgh at all. You can give me Aaron Rod. You can give me all that shit. I don't buy it.

If the Texans score touchdowns instead of field. goals, they win the game, and they win it easily. Easily double digits. I know I said that the Eagles game has the potential to be the biggest spread of the weekend, has potential to be the biggest point differential of the weekend. And I think it does. But you know what else has that opportunity? This one. Because Pittsburgh shouldn't even be here. Pittsburgh shouldn't even be in the dance. Pittsburgh hadn't beaten anybody. Pittsburgh pulled off a miracle they had to have God help them. Divine intervention got them into this game. Texans are the hottest team in football with

the best defense in the NFL and CJ's playing better. The only thing stopping them is touchdowns. Or turning the ball over, which again, that's obvious. If they score touchdowns, they win. And if they win, they're going to win big. They're the better team. So I think what this sets up for is that you're going to get the Texans to win this game and that you have a very good possibility, depending on how things shake out with the other teams.

Maybe you end up playing the Denver Broncos in the next round. maybe not, we'll break that down when we get there and how big this game is. But this game should be won the Texans dominate. I would take them like minus three as a gift. I get that they're on the road. I understand all that. Fine. I get that it's Pittsburgh.

Who gives a shit? Pittsburgh's not good. And by the way, it hasn't stopped teams from beating Pittsburgh in the past. Again, we broke it down. Pittsburgh doesn't win playoff games. They just don't at this point. So I think the Texans win and I think the Texans win big. Just all you have to do is get a couple more touch-up.

Field goals are fine. They're not going to lose games because you kick a field goal or two. But sandwiched in between those field goals, you need to find a touchdown or two. What you can't have is Kyemi Fairbairn makes six field goals or five field goals. And you score one touchdown and five field goals. You've got 22 points. That can't be it. That ain't the answer.

What you need to do is find three or four touchdowns and a field goal, or three. three touchdowns or two touchdowns and three field goals. So you're giving me 14 plus what is that. You give me 26 because your defense ain't going to give up a lot to these guys. So now you're going to get a lot of catches. If you're looking for props, a lot of catches from the running backs in this game. Maybe on both sides, but really on the side of Pittsburgh. Anyway, more to come.