The Josh Innes Show - Huge Thursday Night Game and Jack Black's Christmas Movie

Episode Date: December 5, 2024

I'm geeked for tonights Lions/Packers game. This is one loaded with awesome betting opportunities. Plus, the Packers have a chance to jump firmly into the Super Bowl conversation. I've got a few prop bets you could take tonight. Jilly and I watched "Dear Santa", which is Jack Black's new Christmas movie. It was fine. But, one element of this movie was so preposterous that it ruined the whole thing... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hello, Jamokes! Welcome in. Thursday morning, about 9.45. It's a big Thursday night football game today. Yes, this is an exciting one. This is a betting bonanza today. This is going to be one of those special ones where I say special, I've become a degenerate. I go to Illinois multiple times a day, but Jilly and I are going to go bet on the game here in a little bit this afternoon. Then once the game starts, I'm going to get back in the car and I'm going to drive bet on the game here in a little bit this afternoon. Then once the game starts, I'm going to get back in the car and I'm going to drive back over to Illinois so I can make live bets on it because that's how I've been doing big shit lately. And Jelly goes, I don't like you leaving because then I have to sit here and be bored while you're gone. I'm like, tough shit,

daddy's got to go make money. And by the way, we're both hitting live bets when I go over there. I'm putting in all of our live bets. I fucking love it. I'm telling you, live betting is what you got to do. Move to a place where there is legalized sports betting and live bet. Like, why would you, like, I try to put as few things in as possible beforehand. Like on Sundays, I have to, because the plan is to put in all of our bets, come home, start drinking. So I'm not going to drive, you know, 15 minutes back to Illinois after drinking too much. So I have to get my plays in early on Sundays, but on, on Thursday nights, Thursday and Monday, like primetime football games are my opportunities to go back across the bridge and put in live bets. And that's where the money is made, baby live bet. You get to see how the game is trending. And that's where the money is made, baby. Live bets.

You get to see how the game is trending. I told you, for the Monday night game, I got in on Jameis to throw for 400 yards at positive money. I got Jameis to throw for 450, something like that, for positive money. I just started throwing in stuff because why not? You get to see the way the game is trending. You get an idea of it. You have no idea what a game is going to do before it starts. So find a way to game the system. How do you game the system? Live bets. Now, the issue with live betting is sometimes it can be so easy to do that you just start throwing money at it. And before you know it, you lose two or three of them because it's not foolproof. I mean, you're going to lose some of these things. So you might end up losing one. And then you go, I'm going to try to double up on that before you know it. Like, let me tell you

where you can get yourself into a lot of trouble depending on the game, right? Player to catch a pass on a drive. And that's why a lot of these sites give you like a ton of these uh boosts you know 25 profit boost 30 profit boost on drive bets because they know that drive bets are a place where if you're not hitting them you could lose really quick and you're going to get blinded by the idea of having a boost so you'll be like oh travis kelsey to catch a pass on this drive if i boosted it's plus 125 let's go you miss a couple of those and you're down and then you're going to just start doubling down and trying to make it up it's plus 125. Let's go. You miss a couple of those and you're down, and then you're going to just start doubling down and trying to make it up. That's sort of what happened to me in a way in Memphis.

We were sitting at a Hooters on the Friday after Thanksgiving watching the Chiefs, and we hit a couple of these bets consecutively. Like, Jilly and I were like, all right, we're going to go in on Brock Bowers to catch a pass on this drive. Doesn't matter how many yards it is, just catch a pass. Boom, Brock Bowers catches a pass. All right, we're going to take Kelsey. Boom, he does that.

You hit a couple, you're feeling good. The problem is you start getting cocky on those bad boys, and you can miss two or three, and then you're down. So you got to play it safe. Not even safe. You just got to be cautious about the way you handle next play type things. I don't bet next play type of deals. Like, is he going to run or is he going to pass? Like I think in those scenarios, that

might be a level of degenerate that I don't want to get to, which is next play pass, next play run, but player to catch a pass on a drive is a fun one. Uh, first quarter bets are fun. Like these are the things I like. And I'm I'm looking at um I'm looking at tonight's game like you've got an opportunity I think both quarterbacks are going to combine to get to 500 pretty easily in this game I can't wait for this game like this is an opportunity to see what Green Bay is they got to go on the road they're healthy for the most part more importantly their quarterback is healthy which he wasn't the last time these two teams played. If I recall, it was raining in Green Bay the last time they played. And Jordan Love was hurt the last time they played.

He's healthy. I want this game to be immaculate tonight. I want it to be a party tonight. And honestly, what I want to get out of this is I want Green Bay to go into Detroit and beat Detroit so we can start touting Green Bay as a legit contender. And if they do that tonight, they are. You look around the NFC, we talk about it all the time. I think the Eagles are a legit contender.

I worry about the quarterback position if they have to throw in big spots. But right now, they're not having to throw in big spots because they're dominating, putting together long, time-consuming drives, 15, 16-play drives in which Saquon Barkley is carrying the load. And then, oh, by the way, Saquon Barkley late in games is still busting big 30, 40-yard runs that ice it. Maybe you don't need Jalen Hurts to be great. All you got to do is make sure Jalen Hurts doesn't lose the game for you,

which early in the season he did a couple times. So, you know, don't turn the ball over, and I think the Eagles are a 100% legit Super Bowl contender at this point. Green Bay is on that outer cusp, right? Like the Lions are a contender. They're the favorite right now in the NFC. The Eagles in the NFC are just kind of sitting around there, hanging out, and we'll see what they can do.

Outside of that, you look around like nobody buys the Vikings as a legit contender, right? So your legit contenders, the teams in the NFC that you look at and go, okay, those teams are legit. Eagles, Lions. But once you get past those teams, you go, who else could really pull the upset? Well, probably nobody in the NFC South. You know, if Tampa gets it right and figures it out,

healthy, all that, maybe. But Baker hadn't been the same dude he's been early in the season, but he's a tough son of a bitch. That dude will take every big hit and get back up and come into the game. I like watching Baker play. He's a tough bastard. I just don't believe any of them really have a legit chance, anybody out of the NFC South.

NFC West is just a bunch of dipshits beating the shit out of each other, none of whom I believe are real threats. Maybe a team like the Rams, if they get in with the weapons they have, could scare somebody. Maybe Seattle, if Geno's not turning the ball over, which is a big if, but if he's not turning the ball over and he's getting the ball to DK and he's getting the ball to Jackson Smith and Jigba and they make an effort to make sure Walker's getting in there too,

they could beat somebody. But right now it's pretty clear cut the two best teams record wise and eye test wise are the Lions and the Eagles. Well, Green Bay has a shot because they have a legit quarterback. Like Geno is fine. Baker is fine. These are reclamation projects and they've found you know good success in the new places they're playing I know Gino's been there a couple years and so is Baker but you get my point these are guys that people kind of left for dead for years and years and years and then like they've re-emerged as quarterbacks being successful in new spots same with Matt Stafford in in LA you know you get these kind of guys but big, I don't buy them as contenders. So you've got two teams that are legit. You got Detroit and you have got Philadelphia. But tonight,

on the road, if the Packers can go into Detroit, and I think Detroit's been kind of primed for a letdown. We'll see. But if you get on the road, rivalry game, Detroit loses that game at home to Green Bay, all of a sudden you have to circle Green Bay as a team that is viable and they become the third viable NFC team to win the Super Bowl. So this game is just fun tonight. Here's what we'll do. Let's take a look at some of the prop bets for this game and some of the other stuff. I'll play a commercial for you. I say a commercial. There'll probably be about three minutes of commercials. By the way, just fast forward through it. Go bang, bang, bang, bang, bang. I'll make a couple of bucks. You can get right back to the content here. You know I love you, sons of bitches. You're helping me out doing this. I promise one day this won't be the case. One day we'll all be friends again on the internet and on YouTubes and everything

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All right, I don't know if it was actually a Depends commercial, but here we go. As I noted, I think we're going to get to 500 combined passing yards tonight, but there's not a ton of value for that. It's minus 125 for 500 combined passing yards. That's one that I'd want to get in on live, because I don't really have a ton of value on them to get to 500 so what you hope for is maybe a slow start passing and then sometime in the first quarter late in the first quarter maybe you get to plus money for 500 you get a shot at that but I think there's going to be a lot of slinging another thing I think you need to go

back to and it didn't work on Thanksgiving because there's a conspiracy theory out there that the Lions knew that the whole world was betting on Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery to score touchdowns so they deliberately didn't give the ball to Jameer Gibbs and David Montgomery when they got down there Sam Laporta had two touchdowns last game right so what does this mean well I think tonight we go back because you're getting better value than you normally get on David Montgomery and Jameer Gibbs I'm flirting with the idea of taking Montgomery and Gibbs you parlay the two of them it's plus 202 there look I think every week this is in play every week because they're going to take the ball the first time

they get it and they're going to go down the field the first time they get it, and they're going to be in position to score the first time they get it. And I think this week, after the whole world was watching last Thursday on Thanksgiving, and they didn't give the ball to these guys inside the five, they threw it to Sam Laporta a couple times, I think this is the week they go back to it. Because maybe the conspiracy theory is real. Maybe it is the truth that somehow Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson and everybody decided to fuck with everybody and go,

you know what we're going to do? We're going to let somebody else score this week, not Sonic and Knuckles. Well, I'm going with the Sonic and Knuckles play today. I'm going to put this one in. Jameer Gibbs, David Montgomery, plus 202 for the two of them to score. Let's fucking go. Plus 202 for two dudes that seem to score every freaking week outside of last week is really good value.

I've already hit on that once. I guess two weeks ago I played that one, and it hit like in the first quarter or something. It was easy. So that's one to keep an eye on. Amin Ra's receiving yards are always in play as well. His number is 69.5. But where I got in on him last week on Thanksgiving, and again, I had the luxury of being able to bet it live,

was that late in the game it was basically, do you think he'll get seven more receiving yards? His live total needed like eight more to hit, so I put that in and that hit. And I also love the receivers from Green Bay. Like I hope considering that this is inside, you're not dealing with the elements. It's a huge game, two good quarterbacks, running games that are fun. I think this game should be a freaking blast tonight. So another one to consider is David Montgomery's receiving yards out of the backfield. He's good for two or three catches a game.

He and Jameer Gibbs are great for that. But if you look at Montgomery and you look at what he does, catching the ball out of the backfield, he's going to get you a couple of catches a day. Last week, three catches 36. The week before that three catches 36. The week before that three catches 20. The week before that one catch 24. The week before that three catches 36. The week before that, three catches 20. The week before that, one catch 24. The week before that, three catches 23. The thing I like about the Lions is there's a lot of

consistency from a betting standpoint with these guys. There's not a lot of up and down. If you're going to take Jameer Gibbs to have rushing and receiving, he's going to be pretty freaking close every week to rushing and receiving. These aren't guys that one week it's like oh the uh the lions had you know the david montgomery only had one receiving yard every week he's right around the same number he might have one bad game throughout the season but like just look at david montgomery when i tell you about consistency um you look at his receiving yards overall let's see here do I have David Montgomery yes let's see uh let's see he has got again three catches 36 three catches 36 three catches 20 two catches 24 three catches 23 one catch for five four catches 39 one catch zero one catch 40 three catches 17 435 so he's basically had four games so far this season in which he wouldn't get to that number of 17 and a half and oh by the way in six of the last seven

he's done that and in what appears to be I think seven of the last nine I think he's done that so again there's consistency in a lot of what you get out of the Lions. Now, the concern for the Lions is some weeks you wonder if the passing yards will hit because you don't know if they're going to have to throw a ton or if the running game is going to dominate. But big picture, the Lions are a fun team to bet. Big picture, the Lions are consistent when you bet them prop bet wise. So I am a big prop bet guy, as you know. I love live bets. I love watching them play. So I think this game should be awesome tonight.

And as we noted, if they win this tonight, if Green Bay wins this game tonight, they are firmly in the discussion of Super Bowl contenders that in the AFC, I guess, has to include Buffalo because Buffalo keeps winning, but no one in the world believes Josh Allen's going to beat Pat Mahomes in a playoff game. Nobody. Like if it was a gun to your head, life depended on it.

If you had to pick what was going to happen in that game, no one ever would consider taking Josh Allen over Pat Mahomes, right? So really, the Chiefs are a Super Bowl contender in the AFC, and you'd have to look at, honestly, I think the Steelers are close. Defensively, they're solid, although you wouldn't see that last week against the Bengals, but that's the Bengals. So I think they're right there, and I'm starting to waver on the Ravens. People have been critical of Lamar when you talk about him being

a no-doubt Super Bowl contender because you'll say, well, what has he ever done? And you wouldn't be wrong. But I was blinded by them early in the season because I thought that Lamar had become a much better passer, and he was early in the season. They ain't the same squad now. They're playing tougher games.

They're losing these games. They lost to the Eagles, obviously, last week. I don't know that I'd put the Ravens in that group of teams that could win. Like, could Lamar go ham one day and maybe Derek Henry run for 200 against you? Maybe. But Henry hadn't really felt like the same guy either. Like, a month ago, we're talking about, is Derek Henry the MVP of the league? Well, ain't nobody talking about that anymore, right? Lamar, MVP. Like, I get that his odds are pretty good. Lamar ain't the MVP of the league

right now so the Chiefs are right there because they got Pat Mahomes and I throw the Steelers in there because maybe and you trust Rusty more than you trust whomever but outside of that no one's winning it from the AFC South and until proven otherwise Josh Allen ain't winning it out of the AFC East. And the AFC West, I mean, are any of those teams, like are the Broncos going to get in and beat the Chiefs? Are the Chargers going to get in and beat the Chiefs? So again, there's about three teams that I would circle right now and say they're legit. Chiefs, Eagles, Lions.

And I know it's easy to do that because of their record, but also watch the eye test and watch what they do. Could the Eagles shit down their leg here in the coming weeks maybe but i think the type of football the eagles are playing right now travels well and it's consistent they can run the ball passing games can be voided right like weather can null and void a passing game like there are factors that can screw with the passing game wind Wind can screw with a passing game. So if you're a team that's dependent upon throwing for 400 yards a game, you may be at a disadvantage. The Eagles don't have that disadvantage.

They have the league MVP in their backfield right now, and he's carrying the load. And if he's not running it, he's catching it. So Eagles, Lions, and Chiefs are your Super Bowl contenders. And then after that, I think the Packers, because I love Jordan Love, I love Love. What can I say? You put Jordan Love in that mix as well,

I think they're a Super Bowl contender because they have legit weapons, although they're dealing with some injuries at that position too, at wide receiver. But they've got legit weapons they're solid and Jordan Love on any given day in the right matchup can carry it so now he's also kind of got that that mentality where he might throw a couple of picks and cost you a game I get that but this is a big game tonight for Green Bay to go on the road and beat a team that's due to freaking lose too. They haven't been flirting with disaster in the same way the Chiefs have, but they kind of flirt with it at times.

Like last week, if the Bears weren't dipshits, who knows what direction that game goes late. And they had a big lead and they let it go away. And the Bears were stupid. So who knows? Now, other stuff. Ied another Christmas movie last night, this Jack Black Christmas movie called Dear Santa. Dear Santa. And the plot of this movie is there's a nerdy kid. He's got a nerdy best friend. His parents are miserable.

He's dyslexic. So instead of spelling Santa, he sent a letter to Satan, and then Satan, Jack Black, shows up at the house, and hijinks ensues. It's one of those bedazzled type of movies. If you ever saw Bedazzled with, what's her name? How am I drawing a blank on her name? Elizabeth Hurley. Have you ever seen Bedazzled with Elizabeth Hurley where she's just hot as fuck the whole movie and she's wearing like schoolgirl outfits and like leather outfits and she's talking like Elizabeth Hurley talks. By the way, Elizabeth Hurley, still hot today, maybe hotter today than she was. You talk about people that have aged well.

Elizabeth Hurley is a goddess. You should follow her on the gram. She sells bathing suits. From what I understand, her son is her photographer, which makes it weird. But she posts a whole bunch of hot bikini pics all day. Leaves a little to the imagination. She's 50-something years old. Hotter now than she was when she was Miss Kensington in Austin Powers. So I would urge you to go follow her on the gram if you don't already. But this movie's got like a bedazzled vibe like a kid's bedazzled

vibe he gets three wishes and blah blah blah I don't want to spoil anything for you uh it's fine the movie itself is is fine like I like Jack Black so Jack Black doing Jack Black shit is fine to me it's not as good as like School of Rock or something like that or really to me what I think is maybe the best Jack Black performance, which was in a movie called High Fidelity, where Jack is not like the overbearing person. He's overbearing in the movie, but he's not in the movie a ton to the point where you're like, God damn, I'm tired of Jack Black. And I think that's kind of what you get with Jack Black sometimes is Jack Black doing Jack

Black stuff kind of annoys people to the point where you're like, okay, I've had enough Jack Black for the day. That's why High Fidelity was so good is because he was like second, third banana in there and he's not on screen the whole time. So he does his antics and then he's gone for a while. Then he does his antics and he's gone for a while. But I actually like Jack Black and School of Rock is one of my favorites. So I don't mind watching Jack Black do wacky Jack Black shit and basically just be fat and say, like that type of shit. I'm fine with it.

I can live with it. And it's a kid's movie. So, I mean, it's a kid's movie. And kind of like how Roger Ebert used to review kid's movies was like, these movies aren't really for me. So, like, how do I review this, right? Like you have to look at it through the lens of what it is a it's a Christmas movie Christmas movies are not ones that are generally great anyway right they're a different breed of movie so they're going to have some sort of seasonal hacky hokey

magicalness about them anyway but so you have to suspend disbelief in that Satan shows up at this kid's house because he got a letter and the letter went to satan instead of santa so suspend disbelief in the same way that we're supposed to believe that kevin mccallister outsmarted some fucking sticky wet bandits at his house and just like we're supposed to believe that the santa on 34th street is really santa and just like we're supposed to believe that that that clark w griswold was able to tolerate having like 40 people in his house on Christmas. Like, okay, there's suspension of disbelief. You have to deal with that, especially when you're dealing with kids and Christmas movies. So you don't go into it

thinking you're watching like Lawrence of Arabia, right? But there's an element of this movie that to me was so preposterous that it kind of ruined the whole movie for me like you can watch a movie and like you can watch back to the future and they've got you for an hour and a half hour and 40 minutes and at the end and look spoiler alert for back to the future that in back to the future at the end his family's all still normal but it's like they're better than they were, which is a part that people criticize a lot. Like, oh, all of a sudden the McFly's have money, so they like each other now, and that shows that money makes your life better. Well, yeah, it kind of actually fucking does. But people bitch about that, right?

But at the end of it, the only thing that changes is that Marty's family is happier because of a decision that was made 30 years ago. So they're happier now and that's fine. And in a lot of movies, you can get away with something so absurd at the end of the movie because people have been locked in for the first hour and a half, right? Great line from Steven Spielberg. They were filming Jaws. And at the end of the movie, you know, he bites on the, like the, the air tank at the, the Bruce, bites on the air tank at the end. And of course, smile, you son of a bitch. And he shoots the tank and the shark blows up, right? And I've got who it was that was talking to Spielberg about that when they were filming.

And he's like, do you think anybody's really going to buy this? That this shark bites this tank and he blows up? And Spielberg goes, I got them for two hours. If I have them for two hours, they'll buy this at the end of the movie. And of course it becomes an iconic thing. Smile, you son of a bitch, Roy Scheider. Here's my problem. And maybe you can send me a message if you've already watched this movie and you can tell me if you agree. I find the end of the movie to be so preposterous that the previous hour and a half of the movie means nothing to me and it ruins the overall movie. Jack Black is fine. He's wacky Jack Black. It's fine. The ending of this movie is so preposterous that it's even too preposterous for a kid's Christmas movie.

And you might say, Josh, that sounds ridiculous. I haven't watched the movie, but now I'm going to watch because I want to see if you're right. Watch the movie and tell me I'm wrong. Watch the movie. Tell me I'm wrong. It is the most preposterous ending that you could imagine. Like, it's almost gross. Like, let's put it that way, right?

Like, it's almost insulting to the point that it's gross. If you give me, like, and if you think I'm wrong, you'll think I'm wrong. Watch Dear Santa. It's on Paramount+. Watch Dear Santa and tell me that the ending of this movie isn't so preposterous that it's gross. I think it was gross to the point that I was like, okay, this kind of ruins the fucking movie. Not that it was a great movie anyway, but it was watchable and I'm drinking wine and ha ha, quick little one-liner here, one-liner there from Jaguar.

Watch it and tell me I'm wrong. All right, we shall reconvene in a bit.