The Josh Innes Show - I Have A Texans Guarantee

Episode Date: January 5, 2026

The Texans are in the dance and get the good fortune of playing the Steelers. The Steelers are not good. I think we are going to see the two biggest wins in the history of Texans football. What is stopping them from going to the AFC Title Game? Let's talk about. Also, we take a look at the bracket. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, so the Texans are going to take on the Steelers, and they are going to win. They're going to win a road playoff game for the first time in the franchise's history because they are better than the Steelers. Their defense is better than the Steelers. Their offense is better than the Steelers. They have more weapons than the Steelers. They are better coached than the Steelers. They are going to win that game.

They're a favorite on the road. You want to know where they stand? They're a favorite on the road against Pittsburgh. I get that Pittsburgh won it. Pittsburgh shouldn't have won it. And even if Baltimore would have won it, I would have said the Texans are going to win. The Texans defensively are a machine. I think they ended up finishing with the number one defense in the league, thanks to a couple of –

Actually, it's right there with Denver. I mean, it's right on it with Denver. Either way, it's a decimal point. It's a percentage. It's nothing. That defense is nasty. They've got a quarterback that's been to the playoffs multiple years now. They are – it's ridiculous.

to say this, but if I look at the AFC, and I had to, with my life on the line, pick one of these teams in the AFC to win the whole thing. Like, it's make or break. You have to pick the winner here. Like, who do you think is going to win the game? And not just the game, but the tournament. Who's going to advance and going, at least go to the Super Bowl? And I had to pick one, I would take the Texans.

That's just how I feel about them right now. Maybe it's because they're the trendy pick. Maybe everybody's kind of buying that. Like anybody you listen to on the radio or see on TV, they all are flossing the Texans right now. And maybe that's a sign of bad things. Maybe so. But I'm all about it. It's not even so much a Texans thing.

Yes, their defense is phenomenal. And they have flawed offense. We get that. They settle for too many field goals. You know, Kami Fairbairn made more field goals than any kicker in the history of the Texans in a single season. So, you know, they settle for way too many field goals. but I look around the AFC and I'm like, who do I like more? Let's play a couple commercials and get into that.

So, again, I know we talk about this a lot and we've done it virtually every week as the playoffs have come closer. Like, who do you like more? Like, I look around the league in the AFC and it's wide open. Like, I also think that the, like, I don't think the NFC is as open because, and maybe I'm stupid. I think the Rams hit the lottery by getting to play the Panthers. I know they've already lost to the Panthers this year. That's a fluke. The Rams are damn good.

Their defense is amazing. Their offense, they're a better offensive team than most of the teams you're going to face. Actually, I would take their offense over any of the offenses in the NFC right now. Their defense can get the job done. Is it as good as the Eagles? Probably not. Is it as good as the Seahawks? Maybe not.

But offensively, I think they are better than every team. And if they can just play solid, if you can get the Rams defensively to play a solid game, I think offensively they're going to beat some people. So the Rams are like, if I look at the NFC, I could see a scenario where the Seahawks lose their first game. And I can over in the NFC see a scenario where the Broncos lose. But let's go over the AFC first because we're talking about the Texans. And what's one of the more absurd turnarounds ever? Like I don't know what it is about Houston and, you know, starting 0 and 3, 1 and 3.

whatever and then making runs in the postseason but they've done it as it's football in the city of Houston I believe this is the third time that's happened because the oilers did it back in what like 93 was that 92 93 Texans have done it before now they've done it again now Texans and Steelers the Steelers are not a good football team you got Aaron Rogers maybe there's a little magic and that old silk caddy found fine good for him but defensively they are not good the fear I would have for the Texans is the Steelers are bad against the run, and the Texans are not an aggressive running team, but they should be able to run the ball against these guys. That sets things up for Stroud. Here's my question.

If the Texans are getting touchdowns, and I know that this is obvious, but if the Texans are getting touchdowns and not settling for 25-yard field goals, if they're getting the ball inside the 10, and they are scoring touchdowns, and they are scoring touchdowns, and I know that they are. inside the 10 they can't be beaten not by the Steelers because the Steelers look the Steelers figured things out late remember this Baltimore's defense sucked all year I know they kind of had a little bounce back and they got better go back and watch those early

the Texans put up 40 something points on the Ravens the Ravens are terrible the Ravens are not a good team in either of the Steelers everybody wants to shit on the winner of the NFC South and say oh my God someone had to win that crappy division right Well, what about the AFC North? Do you think the Steelers are any good? You think the Ravens are any good?

You think the Browns are any good? The Bengals? The AFC North, hot take. The AFC North was worse than the NFC South. And the NFC South sucks. But late in the season, the Saints were playing really good football. The Falcons were playing really good football. Carolina was what they were in Tampa fell off a cliff.

But I would take, to me, if Tampa's playing a game against either the Steelers or the Ravens, take Tampa. Obviously they can't do that, but I would have taken Tampa. The Panthers are weird. I don't think the Panthers are any good. But like, I look at the AFC North and people just refuse to talk about the AFC North like they talk about the NFC South. Last time I checked, the records are pretty damn similar. So everybody wants to shit on the NFC South winner. Oh, how do they get an automatic bid? I feel the same way about the AFC North. Steelers or Ravens, whoever would have won it, they both suck. Don't get caught up in the names of the quarterbacks, that it's Aaron Rogers and that it's Lamar. Don't

get caught up in the brand, neither one of those teams are good. The Texans are a better football team. You want proof of that? They're a three-point favorite on the road against the Steelers. So you mean to tell me they're going into rough and tumble, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to take on the legendary Steelers and Mike Tomlin and all this shit? They're a three-point favorite. Which really means if they were at home, they'd be about a six-point favorite.

Because you're going to get three points just being at home. So the Steelers are already getting three from that. The Texans at home are a six and a half to seven point favorite. The Texans are that much better than the Steelers. And the Texans have no business losing this game. They are a better team. Their defense is nasty. CJ has played in playoff games and one playoff games before.

The Texans are better. I don't see one advantage that the Steelers have. They don't go vertically. Now, here's a big factor. You get Metcalf back. Who knows? Maybe they blow out the Ravens last night if DK's there. I mean, I'll give Aaron credit for this.

They have no vertical threat on that team other than DK. And, like, he's thrown it to the running backs 15 times last night. Between Jalen Warren and Gainwell, they had to have caught 12, 13, 14 passes. Like, things do change when you get DK back. That gives you someone vertically, and that is a huge difference. If they didn't have him, I mean, I'd think it'd be a, they'd smoke them. I still think the Texans are better. Don't turn the ball over.

That's obvious. Like, I hate when people say shit like that. Hey, don't turn the ball over. Well, that's a fucking obvious statement. Don't turn the ball over ever. If you don't turn the ball over ever, you're going to win most of the games you play. Take care of the ball. And the next thing is, score touchdowns.

Again, obvious statement. But if the Texans score touchdowns and don't settle for field goals, which is a big if because they continue to do that. I think against the Steelers, they may survive that. honestly, it's when you start facing teams that can really put up numbers and have like real threats offensively. Like the Jaguars are a real threat offensively. The bills are fascinating because the bills have no weapons down the field either. But like the Patriots can put up points and score touchdowns. But we've never seen Drake May in a playoff setting like this before, so we don't know.

The Chargers obviously have weapons and they can move the ball up and down the field, but will they survive the Chargers or the Patriots? So like the Broncos don't scare me offensively. I think offensively, they're not very good, and I think Sean Peyton's going to do what Sean Peyton does. My guarantee is that the Broncos lose to the Texans in the second round. The Texans are going to beat the Steelers. The Texans are going to go to the conference championship game because the Broncos are not beating them because the Broncos, I don't buy them.

I don't buy into the Broncos at all. But anyway, the Texans are going to beat the Steelers. They're going to go to the divisional round, and they are going to beat the Broncos in Denver, and it will go down as the best win in the history of the Houston Texans franchise. That is my bold proclamation here. The Texans, like, if you can count on one hand the monumental wins they've had.

You can go down the list of them. There aren't many of them, right? I don't really include too many of them in the Bill O'Brien era because those teams were never real contenders, right? But if you want to throw in, like, the rallying to beat Buffalo, okay, put in rallying to beat Buffalo in there in the playoffs. Josh Allen. You want to take that one? Cool. I would put that fucking game against Cincinnati

at home, the first playoff win where JJ had the pick six before halftime. That's obviously a monumental moment in the history of the franchise. But they have, on one hand, you can count the massive wins that are truly important wins, right? They haven't had many of them. You know, you beat the Bengals twice in the playoffs. You've beaten the Browns in the playoffs. There aren't a ton of marquee wins against marquee name franchises or marquee name quarterbacks. They just don't win those. My prediction for the Texans is they beat Aaron Rogers, which even though it's not the same Aaron Rogers, it's not Green Bay Aaron Rogers, and this is not the steel curtain Steelers, you're still beating brand name Steelers and you're still beating brand name Aaron Rogers. When they win that game, that'll be their biggest win ever.

Then they're going to go to Denver, and they're going to advance the conference championship game, making that their biggest win ever. That is my hot take for the postseason for the Texans. The Texans are going to have the two biggest wins in the history of the franchise in their next two games. Steelers to advance to the Broncos, beating the number one seed Broncos in Denver, going to the first conference championship game. That's my take. You look around the NFC, I mean, what are we looking at here? Now, granted, they could have a situation where there's a receipt, right? So there's a scenario there where, you know, they may not end up playing the Broncos.

I get that. But let's say the bills upset the Jaguars and the bills that wouldn't even be an upset they'd win. And I think New England's going to beat the Chargers. That's what I'm getting at here. No matter who they beat in the second round. if they go to the conference championship, it's the biggest game. My feeling is the bills, despite as bad as things have been for the bills and kind of up and down, and you want to talk about pressure, Josh Allen's got all the pressure in the world.

Because if you ain't going to win it this year, when the fuck are you're going to win it? But I think the bills are going to – so actually, I take that back then. My bad. If the bills end up winning that, they're the six, so they play the Broncos. Either way, the Texans are going to advance my hot take here. And although there could be a scenario in this where the – Jaguars do win that? That's the game I'm having the hardest time with. And I'll tell you why I'm having a hard time with that one. I'm having a hard time with the Jaguars and the Bills

because my head and just like history tells me it's Josh Allen. He's a better player than Trevor Lawrence. It's the Bills. As long as they're not playing the Chiefs, the Bills are dangerous in the playoffs, whatever. And then my other mindset is it's the Jaguars. Like what are they going to do? But the Jaguars may be the better team. I mean, the Jaguars, point and a half dog, Buffalo. So, again, there's still a very realistic possibility of the Texans play the Broncos. It doesn't matter if it's the Broncos. It doesn't matter if, you know, the charge, let's say the Chargers advance and it ends up Broncos Chargers in the next round, right?

And it ends up being the Texans and the Bills or something, or the Jaguars and the Texans, whatever it is. The Texans are going to the AFC championship game. I'd really like it if it were against the Broncos because I don't believe Sean Payton's going to win a home playoff game because that's not what Sean Payton does. But, boy, the AFC, like, I find the AFC more interesting only because I do truly believe it's wide open. Like, every other year the Texans have ever gone to the playoffs,

I've never believed the Texans can go to the AFC championship game. I've just never bought them. I could take any of these teams other than the Steelers. I don't buy the Steelers going to the AFC championship. game. But could the Patriots are the Chargers? I think the Chargers' offensive lines too beat up. Probably not, but I could see it.

But then you look at the NFC, here's another bold take for the playoffs. The two number one seeds will not advance past the division around. They will both lose. And home field won't matter. Because what's going to happen is you're going to get the, let's see, you're probably, well, here's what's, so what's going to happen

is the Seahawks are going to get the Packers in the next round because the packers are going to beat the bears because the bears are what they are so the bears are despite the fact they're playing at home you saw what they did yesterday they shit the bed in a major way not that the game ended up maddering it didn't but they shit the bed against a bad lions team mediocre lions team team that hadn't played well all year I think the packers beat them so you're going to get Seahawks Packers I think you're going to get Rams and I think the Eagles are going to win I don't buy the 49ers at all Eagles are at home they figure things out in the playoffs. I don't think they're going to figure it out to the point that they're

going to win the whole thing. I see all these analysts like, look out. Nobody wants to face the Eagles. Yeah, the Eagles defense is very good. Their offense is still a cluster fuck. And I don't believe that they're just going to find their mojo in the postseason. It's not even a mojo situation either. It's just, I don't think they're very good offensively. I don't think you play 17 games of shitty offense and then just magically become a good offensive football team because you figured it out in the playoffs. I think they'll grind out some games. They'll make enough plays to beat the 49ers, and then they will take on the Rams, and they'll get to host the Rams in the next round, if things work out the way I see it.

Rams should have beaten them there last year. They can beat them there. The Rams are a better team than the Eagles. But they also have to go on the road. Who knows what the weather situation is? We saw what the Rams there before in the snow, so you never know. But Texans-wise, I think the Texans advance. If they play the Broncos, I think they beat them.

if they play, whoever they play, insert whatever team they're going to have to play in there. I think they're going to be them. And I think they're going to the AFC championship game. I think the defense is too good. My only concern is when you start facing teams that can score. Like, I'm skeptical. Here's the thing.

I would want, if I were the Texans, I'd be rooting to play the Broncos because I don't believe in the Broncos offense. Like, I think you can find a situation where Josh Allen can beat you. I think the Jaguars can move the ball and put up some points. I think the Patriots have an offense that can score points. Chargers, they can score. I don't believe in the Broncos' offense at all. And I don't believe in the Steelers' offense at all, despite what we saw in the second half of the game last night. So if I were the Texans, I want to face the Broncos in the next round because the Broncos, I just don't buy their offense at all.

I don't buy Bo Nix. You want to give me D'Amico Ryan's against Bo Nix with a spot in the AFC championship game on the line? Give me that. Inject that into my veins. That's what I'm looking for it. I would want that matchup. If I were the Texans, I would covet that matchup. Give me the Broncos.

More to come.