The Josh Innes Show - Is The Fate Of Michigan Football In The Hands Of John Mateer?

Episode Date: December 19, 2025

Mike Meltser asked me that question via text today. Is the fate of Michigan football in the hands of John Mateer? It's truly a fascinating thought. Let's look at how this could play out. Will Kalen DeBoer leave? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right. Let's see here. College football playoff starts tonight. We get one game, prime time. We get Alabama and Oklahoma. For the most part, the matchups this weekend are very interesting. A&M and Miami is interesting. The other two should be blowouts and everybody's just going to bitch about the fact that we're wasting our time putting Tulane in this situation or putting James Madison in this situation. And get ready for that this weekend. And I would agree with them, especially if these games, end up terrible like it then I get it but the game tonight has a giant domino effect potentially so let's get into that and look at some of these other games as well we'll do that after these words so the domino effect in tonight's game right where Alabama is a slight favorite over Oklahoma at Oklahoma like this is the coolest part of this is that you get these home playoff games like that's cool like I want more of this less of like hey let's play a stupid bowl game and let's get on-campus playoff game. That's awesome, right? Alabama, Oklahoma. I'm not a big Oklahoma believer because I don't believe in Oklahoma's offense, right? I don't

believe in Mateer. Look, Alabama's defense isn't your typical Alabama defense, but I watched Oklahoma at home struggle to put LSU away, and LSU has no offense of which to speak. LSU, though, did have defense that could travel, and it did, and it held Oklahoma down. Oklahoma had to make one big play late in the game to beat LSU or they wouldn't even be in the CFP because LSU was going to end their fucking season which would have been wonderful but it didn't happen. Alabama's offense was a machine for a large

part of the year. But what I've seen out of them lately is Ty Simpson hasn't been as good. They're not running the ball as well. Nothing Alabama does has been good lately. Like if you watch them offensively and look at the way they've trended offensively throughout the back

half of the year. Because early in the year. They put up 31 on Florida State, again, 73 on ULM, who cares, 38 on Wisconsin, 24 on Georgia, 30 on Vanderbilt. Like their offense felt like more of a unit. Like you'd watch Ty Simpson and you'd go, okay, this guy can sling it, right? Like you would look at their numbers and every day if you wanted to take prop bets on Ty Simpson, dude's passing yardage total would be, you know, 275 over under, like the dude would sling it. They ain't doing that as much anymore. And they've already faced Oklahoma and they've already lost to Oklahoma and in that game they lost 23-21. But if you look at what they've done really the last month plus of the season,

right? Remember, LSU held them to 20 points. Oklahoma held them to 21. Auburn held them to 27 and Georgia held them to seven. Their offense isn't spectacular. So it is very possible that even as a slight favorite, they go on the road and lose to Oklahoma. Again, I don't buy Oklahoma's offense at all, so this could be a slug fest, but I don't know if it is because there's nothing really impressive about Alabama's defense either, so I don't know. But what is the domino effect in this game? The domino effect is if there is a loss by Bama today, if Alabama loses, what is the likelihood that Kalen DeBore leaves to go to Michigan? I know he said that he's not going to go all that, but what are the odds that he leaves?

if they lose this game. Because the more you win, the more difficult it becomes to leave. And they're not going to let you leave. Because they're going to like you a lot more. That's the key thing in all of this. That's the interesting part. I was texting with Meltzer about this. And Meltzer's a Michigan man.

And Meltzer texts, and the question he asked was, is the future of Michigan football in the hands of John Mateer. And it's interesting to look at it that way, but it kind of is. Because if they lose, particularly, there's so many elements of this that are interesting, right? Because if they lose, the likelihood of him leaving becomes greater because the Alabama people who already don't seem to like the guy are certainly going to be fine with him leaving or more of them will be fine with him leaving because of losing the playoff game.

That's number one. Number two, big picture stuff here, right? You're the coach at Alabama. It feels like no matter what you do, people are always kind of kind of be leery of you. because you're not Nick Saban. That's my biggest takeaway from this when you talk about whether or not you would leave Alabama to go to Michigan. Because everything being equal, we're just looking at each individual situation for what it is. Alabama's a better job.

It's in the SEC. The resources are there. The history is there. I mean, you could argue that both cases have that or both schools have that. But it's the SEC, the recruiting basis fertile. The money is equal there. They've got money they'll spend on recruiting just like they do and spend money on the NIH. just like they will at Michigan.

The weather is nicer. You get a better type of player to come play for you at Alabama. Like, there's no reason to leave Alabama. The only reason you would leave Alabama, there are two reasons. Number one is you feel like they're just waiting to fire you for you to slip up. Like you constantly live in this world where if you're not winning 11 games every year and you're not Nick Sabin, they will be looking to fire you. And you may never have this opportunity to go to another top five, six, seven job like this.

Like, there'll be jobs open. but how often will there be Michigan open? Because, you know, LSU can be open. Florida, there are big jobs. Michigan is one of the traditional powerhouse programs, and how often will that job actually be open for you? Will that chance ever come back again? And do you feel like they're just waiting for an excuse to whack you at Alabama?

Do you feel like you have the support of the people in charge at Alabama? Do you feel like you have the support of the fans at Alabama? There's so many questions that you have to ask yourself when you're weighing whether or not you want to leave to go to. to Michigan. Now, who knows, I'm assuming Michigan wants, and I assume he's at the top of their list. They will pay him whatever he wants, you would assume. The resources, as we've seen, they have the money to pay players and everything else at Michigan, so they can do whatever they want. The only reason you leave Alabama, and it's kind of one and the same, you leave

Alabama because you feel like they are punishing you for not being Nick Saban, and number two, you leave Alabama because you'll never be Nick Saban. And the same way that you'd rather be the person that follows Kalin-Dibor at Alabama than be Kalin-Dibor following Nick Saban. You'd much rather be Kalin-Dibor going in replacing Sharon Moore at Michigan than you were replacing Nick Saban in Alabama. It was always a tough gig and arguably always a losing gig. So that's why you would leave. Like the job is not better. You cannot convince me that with everything going into it, that the job at Michigan, particularly with their athletic department being in shambles, their coach just got arrested. Like, you cannot tell me that

Michigan is a better job than Alabama. If you want to say it's a push, I can entertain the idea that it's a push. But Michigan is not a better job than Alabama. But you have to look at all of the pieces of the situation. You have to look at every aspect of it. And the fact that you're at Alabama and you, look, you're in the college football playoff again. You're in a position where you're one of the last handful of teams. If you win today, you're right. You're there. Yet it's always going to feel like it's not your program. It's always going to feel like they're judging you against Nick Saban no matter what you do. And newsflash, you ain't winning five, six, seven national titles. You could win three and they judge you. You could win two

and they'd say he's not Nick Saban. Mind you, Nick Saban didn't follow Bear Bryant. Nick Saban didn't follow. Look at all the places Nick Saban went. You know who Nick Saban didn't follow at any of those places? The one legend of the school. You know, Nick Saban didn't follow, you know, Charles McClendon at LSU. He followed Jerry DeNardo, who followed Curley Hallman, right, who followed Mike Archer. Like, they didn't follow guys that were the legend. Nick Saban didn't follow a legend at Alabama. He followed Mike Shula.

Kalan DeBore, on the other hand, is going to Michigan and following arguably the biggest legend on the planet. No, he didn't follow. Nick Saban didn't follow Bear Bryant or Gene Stallings. He followed Mike freaking Chula. But if you go to Michigan and they're in shambles and the program is embarrassed and you're following a guy who is fucking a secretary and went to jail, it's kind of a winning proposition. And that's what would make that more enticing. And do you feel like what's going to happen no matter what is you'll never be Nick Saban? Like that's what I'd be weighing.

Like, look, you're following some legends. There were legendary coaches, Bo Schembeckler, Lloyd Carr won the national championship at Michigan. So I get all that. But you're not directly following a legend. And you're also going to follow the guy who followed Harbaugh, who while Harbaugh won the title and a bunch of people love him there, he did it in a very shady fashion. Like, I listened to the radio here around Michigan, and a lot of people want Michigan to get back to at least being as respectable of a program as you can be in this era of no respect, of like gross college football and NIL. They want some semblance of like, you know, stability and class and decorum or whatever,

which they have not had under Harbaugh, and they certainly haven't had now with the way things have ended with Sharon Moore. So do you leave Alabama if you believe that no matter what happens, they're always going to say you're not saving? That's why I would leave. But here's the interesting part. The more you win in this particular college football playoff, the more they're going to love you. If you lose this game, they don't love you. If you win this game, more people start to love you. So it's fascinating.

To me, that storyline and just the domino effect this could have. Because what happens if Kalin-de-Boer does go to Michigan? And Alabama opens up. Who takes the job? Who do they hire? Do they make – I mean, I don't know what the contract situation is with Lane Kiffin. But you want to tell me you don't see a scenario? where if Lane Kiffin got offered the Alabama job,

he would, like, guys hadn't even unpacked the fucking U-Haul, and he's going back to Tuscaloosa. I mean, who knows? But like, does Alabama really want to get into a world where they're losing their head coach days after losing in the college football playoff, and then they have to scramble to find somebody else for one of the highest profile programs in the country? What do they do?

So that element of this is fascinating. And maybe nothing comes of it. Maybe they win today and the coach doesn't leave. and Michigan has to find a coach, and maybe they hire the shitty interim coach they have, Biff Pochi, who knows? But it's certainly fascinating. Then you look at these other matchups. I mean, some of these, like A&M and Miami, that's fine.

I think A&M is going to win. That would be my inclination. Like, I don't believe shitty Miami is going on the road to Texas A&M and beating the Aggies. I just don't believe in Miami. I don't believe in the quarterback. Ole Miss is going to pecker slap Tulane. They've already done it once.

I don't care about all the upheaval and the different coach, and there's no Lane Kiffin, blah, blah, blah. They're going to go there and they're going to beat the shit out of Tulane at home. And Oregon, Oregon is going to shit all over James Madison, and we will spend the rest of the weekend talking about how it's a joke that Tulane is in and James Madison is in, and you're going to see that little fight on the internet between media people and fans, and that's what you're going to get. There's nothing intriguing about those games, unless Tulane or James Madison makes those games intriguing.

Oregon is going to smoke James Madison and Ole Miss is going to smoke Tulane and you've got two games like the fact that the Miami Texas A&M game is at fucking noon on Saturday what are we doing? What are we doing here? Why is the one good matchup at noon and Oregon versus James Madison is a night game?

What are we doing? But watch the Oklahoma-Bama game tonight with the idea that the fate of Kalin DeBore and the fate of the Michigan program and the future of the Alabama program are all at stake today. And it's certainly intriguing when you do it that way. More to come.