The Josh Innes Show - Is the NBA Draft Lottery Rigged?

Episode Date: May 13, 2025

The NBA Draft Lottery is fascinating. We don't get to see how it works. All we get is the results. It's hard for me to fathom that a team with a 1.7% chance of getting the #1 pick, actually gets the #1 pick months after making the worst trade in history. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Plus enjoy zero dollar delivery fees on your first three orders. Service fees exclusions and terms apply. Instacart. Groceries that over-deliver. Spring is here and you can now get almost anything you need delivered with Uber Eats. What do we mean by almost? You can't get a well-groomed lawn delivered, but you can get chicken parmesan delivered. Sunshine? No. Some wine? Yes. Get almost almost anything delivered with Uber Eats. Order now. Alcohol in select markets. See after details. So I used to be one of those people that would make fun of the people who are conspiracy theorists because that's how the world used to be, right? We used to just make fun of those crackpots and call them the tinfoil hat people

and just kind of laugh at them and scoff at them and say, ha ha, they're stupid. And just, you know, basically treat them like the dregs of society. And we would mock them, right? Like, oh, there, there's no way we actually landed on the moon, right? You'd all point at that guy and you'd laugh or, you know, just go through any great conspiracy theory of all time in modern history of just anything, right? Like, even if it's the dumb ones, like, you know, that Marilyn Manson was actually that kid that played Paul on the Wonder Years or you know Marilyn Manson had a rib removed so he could blow himself or like dumb shit like that all the way up to like

actual like important things in life like you know the moon landing where people question whether or not the moon landing was real and we would look at the guys and say okay you're a dipshit if you don't think like how would they fake it what incentive do they had to fake it blah blah blah blah blah blah and you would argue with these guys and you would just kind of view them as crack pots or like 9-eleven people or whatever like you look at those people and go okay you're full of shit whatever okay haha crackpot guy but then as time's worn on and like some things are proven to be a lot less cut and dry than we thought before, and we start to see things and like more people are talking about

things, the people who question things are becoming more and more like the ones that people go to. That's why Joe Rogan has been so successful. Rogan might have a bunch of shit that he's wrong about. He may, may not. But Joe Rogan is a guy that people go to listen to because Joe Rogan is a person who questions things. And that's what you should do. You should question everything. Taking shit on its surface while easy, and I wish I could do it, as we discussed in the last podcast,

it is very easy to just sit back and accept shit. But in this era, it's hard to do when you start to hear all the shit that you hear from people on shows like Joe Rogan and others. It used to be you would just go listen to like Coast to Coast and that's where you get your crackpot shit. Aliens in Area 51 and the JFK assassination. Like I used to be addicted to listening on the anniversary of the JFK assassination. I would just

listen to Coast to Coast and have all the people they'd have on talking about the JFK assassination. I was fascinated by that shit. And now people that question things are no longer the crackpots. It's kind of the norm. You kind of have to question shit. And that's what brings us to the NBA drafttery. And we will discuss that after these words. World Elite Mastercard to help you earn the most PC optimum points everywhere you shop. With the best playlists, you never miss a good song. With this card, you never miss out on getting the most points on everyday purchases. The PC Insider's World Elite Mastercard, the card for living unlimited. Conditions apply to all benefits. Visit pcfinancial.ca for details. So it's pretty obvious that the NBA draft lottery is rigged, right? I mean, it's kind of hard for it not to be because the Mavericks get the number one pick cool Mavericks

get the number one pick of course they had a 1.7 percent chance of getting the number one pick those are not very good odds 1.7 percent chance of getting the number one pick while you have other teams that tried so hard to suck so bad to get that number one pick that didn't come close to getting that number one pick, the team with 1.7% likelihood of getting it got it. So it's got to be a conspiracy, right? Generally speaking, when everybody thinks it's a conspiracy, it's kind of like, okay, you guys are kind of full of shit. It is very difficult to look at this

scenario and then look at the history of the draft lottery, which we will in a second, but it's impossible, virtually impossible to look at this and just go, what luck? It's hard to do that in this situation because here's what you'd have to believe. Here's what you'd have to think and believe. There's two options. Option number one is that Nico Harrison is just the luckiest son of a bitch on the planet. So essentially you'd have to now

can he made the worst trade a lot of people call the worst trade NBA history sports history, Luca, AD, the whole deal, right? Cool. You'd have to believe that his level of luck is that of someone that got extremely hammered at a bar, didn't call an Uber, drove home, hit a fucking light pole, almost died but didn't die, was rescued. They take him to the hospital, run a bunch of tests. When they run the test, they find out that he had cancer, that no one had any idea. He had no idea he had this cancer. Then they find it early and they get it and then he's cancer free. That's the kind of luck this guy would have to

have the kind of luck where there's a story where Tony Gonzalez ran into a cameraman. I think it was in San Francisco when he was playing for the Chiefs. He was trying to catch a ball and ran over a dude on the sideline like a photographer and the dude was like knocked out when they get him to the hospital. They discovered that he's got like a brain tumor or some shit and they're able to work on the brain tumor. Like it's just one of those miraculous things. So you want me to believe that this guy just has the most incredible luck of all time.

Just amazing. Like basically you won the lottery twice. One of those kind of guys. Not the draft lottery but like the lottery lottery. Like somehow you not only won it once, you won like the mega millions but then you also won like a million dollars on a scratch off. You just have that level of luck, right? So we either believe that or we believe that the whole thing is fixed and not just the draft lottery is fixed but that all the moves and everything that went along with it were in fact fixed. Now the question there's always a why why would they do this? What incentive do they have to do this? There's always a why.

So why would they fix it for Dallas? Now the first idea could be that it's you know fourth largest television market in the country and they don't want to lose that. I've seen Dallas people saying that like, oh they couldn't afford to lose us so they fixed it. Maybe. I don't know that market sizes truly matter in things anymore because people have league pass and you can watch every game everywhere. I don't know if the size of the city is truly a big deal. Like Oklahoma City is a fun basketball team to watch right. I think is know if the size of the city is truly a big deal. Like Oklahoma City is a fun basketball team to watch, right? There, I think, is Oklahoma City the smallest market in the

league or one of the two or three smallest markets in the league, Oklahoma City? One of them, it's a small market. But they're really fucking good and people are going to watch them. Cleveland is not a huge market, but LeBron played for Cleveland. I guarantee you people watch it across the country because it's LeBron. You know, if AD played in New Orleans and New Orleans was good, people would watch. Like,

I'm not a big believer in, oh, they want to have the big city. They have to have these. So, I don't believe that. So, as far as the why goes, I don't buy that. But then there's the other follow-up which is, okay, so there's not a why. So, we don't have a why with that. But they wanted to have Luca. Now there is something to be said about having a team like the Lakers being good. That is the number two media market in the country. Maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't. You have to be of the belief that Nico did not want to make

that trade but was forced to make that trade by the league and was told that once they made that trade, he'd be guaranteed the top pick. It seems ridiculous when you think of it that way. When you think of all the things that they would have to want to do to make that happen. They'd have to say, well, we got to get Luca out of Dallas. Well, why do they have to get Luca out of Dallas? Like he was fine in Dallas, they're finals team in Dallas. Why? Well, we need LA to be good and LeBron is still

trying to hang on. We need LeBron and Luke in a team up to be good. We got to do it. Okay, fine. How does that help the league? Oh, they're in LA. And when LA is good, the league is better. When the Knicks are good, the league is better. And the Knicks are good right now. We need the Lakers to make a run. Boy, what if we had like a Lakers Knicks finals? Holy shit. We've got to have him in there. Okay. Okay. Cool. So what do I get for getting to make this deal where I'm going to look like the biggest imbecile on the planet? Mind you, I am going

to look like a piece of shit and people are going to hate me and it is going to be terrible and I'm going to have to fall on my sword and I'm going to have to say dumb shit like I knew our fans loved Luka but I didn't know it was like this. Like I am going to have to receive threats, people I knew our fans love Luca but I didn't know it was like this like I am going to have to receive threats people will want me fired they're gonna talk shit about me endlessly I'm going to look like the worst general manager of all time what do I get for doing this deal for you you can have Cooper flag if you want him like all right I'll do it fine let's do it like when you really break it down it actually sounds absurd to think that it's rigged because that's

the kind of shit that would have to go into this for it to be rigged, right? Even with all that, I still think it was because I find it hard to believe that it just so happens that a gentleman made the worst move ever and then gets a get out of jail free card with the number one pick when he had a 1.7% chance of getting it. I don't believe it. Now, is it a total get out of jail free card? Yes and no. Now, people think Cooper flag could be some sort of, you know,

all-time great fine. You still got Kyrie and who knows how healthy he's going to be and you got AD. He's never healthy. So, who the fuck knows? But it's one of those things where every piece of information about it that you could break down would lead you to believe that it's not rigged, yet for whatever reason, you still believe that it is in fact rigged. And that's kind of where I am right now with it. Because the biggest thing that stands out is 1.7% chance

mixed with the fact that the worst trade in history happened and now you're making up for it with this. But then you go in and you throw in the fact that the NBA has a long history of this stuff and it's not just, you know, the idea that you know, the frozen envelope with Pat Ewing. 2019, the Pelicans get the number one pick months after trading Anthony Davis to the Lakers. 2014, the Cavs land the number one pick amidst reports that

LeBron will return to Cleveland. 2012, the Hornets, now the Pelicans, get the number one pick months after trading Chris Paul to the Clippers. The Cavs get the number one pick 18 months. This is 2011 now. 2011, the Cavs get the number one pick 18 months after LeBron leaves Cleveland. If you add the Spurs getting the number one pick in 2023, generational center a few years after Duncan retires, it's wild how whenever there's a transcendent generational pick,

Wimby, Flag, Zion, AD, Kyrie, they always seem to land in the perfect spot. And when you break it down like that, you're kind of like, yeah, like it may like, it can't just be that it works out that well. It cannot be. Now I don't argue, I'm not gonna argue the perfect spot. Like who's to say that AD playing in New Orleans or Zion playing in New Orleans was a perfect spot. I guess by perfect spot they're saying the place that feels like it got the most jilted then catches a break.

Now the argument would be well generally speaking when a team loses a transcendent player like Chris Paul leaves New Orleans, like AD leaves New Orleans, like LeBron leaves Cleveland, or in this case, like Luca leaves Dallas, that that team, generally speaking, would then stink, and it would just make sense that they would get a high draft pick and get the number one pick because they'd be so bad losing the transcendent player that their record would suck to the point that they

would have the opportunity to get the number one pick. But it's not like Dallas' record sucked. They were in the play-in. I mean, it went great, but they were in the play-in. So it's one of those things where every piece of information, everything you read, everything that you consume about it, makes you, like, every piece of data, every piece of common sense, every why, and why is a very important thing. Why would they do this? All of that points to

it's not real. There's no way they rigged it because why like what true like what true benefit did the league have and having Luca in LA? I mean LeBron's already in LA now unless the argument is LeBron's getting older LeBron's going to be phased out and they need the next superstar in LA. Now that part of it I could see like the idea that oh they need to team, to team LeBron up with another star, I don't buy that because LeBron's only got a finite number of years or finite time left in the league anyway. But if you want to tell me that Innis Prime, Luka Doncic in LA is good for the league, then I would tell you 100%. Because I do think that there is something, like I don't consume basketball

more because LA and New York are good. That's not why I watch basketball. I hate that argument. But I do think it's good for the league when one of their traditional powers and not just a team that's had a couple of moments like even the Knicks. The Knicks aren't a traditional power. The Knicks are a dogshit franchise and for the most part have been my entire life. So it's not like, you know, like Boston is a traditional power franchise or

at least was up until the 1990s. But LA is the franchise. LA has been a winner in the 70s. LA has been a winner in the 80s. The 90s weren't that good until the late 90s. The 2000s and 2010s they've won championships. The Lakers are the Yankees of basketball. And you want the Yankees of basketball to be good. So how can you guarantee that they're good moving forward? Well, you get Luke in there, you get a superstar, keeps interest drummed up. You don't run the risk of it being like a dude like Cooper Flagg or a young

dude who knows if he's good. You know what you get in Luka. Therefore, you make the deal. You force the deal for Luka to go to LA. Nico Harrison has to look like a total dipshit, like the worst GM on the planet gets threats and everything else. Then you promise him that he's going to get the number one pick, even though it's a 1.7% likelihood that it happens and you get it. To me, again, it's a wild thing and that's what conspiracies are. It

is hard for me to fathom that a team with a 1.7% chance of getting the number one pick just so happens to get that number one pick months after they gave away a transcendent all generational player to LA. And then when you go down and look at that list of things again, to LA. And then when you go down and look at that list of things again, they're all very, very convenient. And then none of us get to see how the process goes. They don't publicly show it. They don't show these ping pong balls bouncing up and like it's

the lotto. It's all done behind closed doors. And it leads to it. And it leads to conversation and speculation about it. So I'm firmly in the camp that it's fixed even though a lot of the stuff you can say you can convince yourself otherwise, it just it doesn't make sense how a 1.7% likelihood happens in that scenario. I guess I would need to know what the likelihood was of those other teams getting the number one pick in those years too. But 1.7%. At least Darryl didn't get the number one pick. That's one thing I'll always root for. Like eventually things are going to come back around for Darryl. Like you would think if Darryl hangs

around long enough, something's going to break his way that shouldn't break his way and he'll eventually win a championship just because he hangs around long enough. Talk about Darryl Morey. Like last night they were in the top four going into commercial I'm like don't let fucking Darryl get Cooper flag. Don't reward Darryl with this shit. Don't you do it. And they didn't and that was fine I can live with that. The Sixers are a fascinating franchise too because the Sixers just always end up with like the second or third pick you know they never end up with like the generation although I mean

look they got Embiid and Embiid if he were healthy would be fantastic so you know that is what it is but and when he is healthy he's very good although that looks like it's coming to an end like he just seems kind of broken down it just it just doesn't seem good and obviously it'll go down. It's just a disaster not a disaster but a failure but big picture like they never end up with like the dude. They always just end up like all these years they stink and things could work out for them. They still end up, you know

not getting that number one pick Darrell got to love him. All right more to come.