The Josh Innes Show - Josh's College Lock Of The Week

Episode Date: October 9, 2026

Let's take a look at this weekends college football matchups. Josh Innes has one game that he absolutely loves. Can Iowa go on the road and beat Washington? Who has the edge in the Georgia/Bama matchup? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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by the way, it is 1242 a.m. Central time here, Thursday going into Friday as I'm recording this. Let's look. This is a weird weekend because you've got a lot of, well, I guess next weekend is the real weird weekend because you've got a lot of SEC games that are happening at like 11 o'clock in the morning for some inexplicable reason. The SEC is clearly the most popular league in all of college sports yet you're burying these games at 11 o'clock in the morning. morning on the 17th. Now, tomorrow, the 10th, that's not quite the case. So let's do this. Let's play a couple commercials and let's look at some of these games and let's pick some winners and break them down. We will do that after these messages. Visit BetMGM Casino and check out the newest exclusive. The Price is Right Fortune Pick. BetMGM and Game Sense remind you to play responsibly. 19 plus to wager. Ontario only. Please play responsibly.

If you have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close to you, peace contact connects Ontario at 1-866-531-2,600 to speak to an advisor. Free of charge. BetMGM operates pursuant to an operating agreement with Eye Gaming Ontario. New from Nespresso. Blend wellness into your coffee routine with a coffee plus range, infused with functional benefits. Choose the coffee you love with added B vitamins, like coffee plus B12 to help support immune function, and coffee plus B6 to keep your day moving.

Or go with the flow and choose ginseng delight. Our new double espresso with ginseng extract. Whatever lies ahead, don't change your morning. Let your morning change you. Discover Coffee Plus on espresso.com. All right. Let's see here. Let's just look through the games.

Friday, is there anything sexy? By Friday, I mean today probably when you're listening. I mean, it is today. Let's see. BYU is a 10.5 point favorite at home against Iowa State. no. Like what I'd like to do is look at these and just the first thing that comes to mind. Now, if nothing comes to mind, nothing comes to mind. I'm not going to break down a game if I don't really feel something on it. But like so, for instance, Louisville's a three and a half point favorite against Florida State.

Louisville plays Friday night. They're at home. They're now two and three. They've lost a tight game to Ole Miss to start the season. They beat SMU. Now they've got back-to-back weeks in which they've lost by three to Wake Forest and three to NC State. Florida State, no matter which way you look at it, Florida State still sucks, and Florida State hasn't really done anything worth a shit. They've beaten Virginia, neat, Central Arkansas, neat, New Mexico State, neat. They got beaten up pretty good by Alabama, and they lost to SMU. I think Louisville at home is going to win that, and I think they're going to cover three and a half in that game.

That's, again, first thought, that's all I'm doing here. I just look at these, give you the first thought that I have on these things. They may be no thoughts. Again, there's some other games on Friday. I don't have any thoughts on these. Iowa and Washington. Washington's two and a half points. I do not believe that Iowa number 20 team in the country is going to go on the road and beat Iowa or Washington.

I also don't believe Washington's really any good, but I also don't believe Iowa's any good. I mean, what has Washington done the last couple of weeks? Damn near beat USC. Look, their last two weeks. Three point loss to Minnesota at home. four point loss on the road against USC, right? That's their back-to-back losses, okay? They're taking on Iowa.

Iowa just got pecker slapped around the yard by Ohio State. They beat a bad Michigan team. That's what Iowa's hanging their hats on, essentially, right now, is that they are a, basically they've beat Michigan by a point on the last play of the game, and they've beaten three stiffs. Well, they beat Iowa State, cool, good for you. They beat Northern Illinois, cool. beat Northern Iowa, cool, and then they got bludgeoned by Ohio State. I don't know that Washington's

any good, right? I'm pretty confident they're not great, but they're at home. And I think what we're going to see here from Iowa, as Iowa's schedule gets tougher, right, as they're not playing U and I, ISU and NIU, you know, they should have lost to Michigan. They didn't, whatever it is, what it is, they won on the last play of the game. They can't score. And you look at what they've done. They scored 55 against Northern Iowa and 40 against Northern Illinois. They scored 16 against Iowa State. They scored 20 against Michigan. That includes on the last play of the game scoring a touchdown.

And 14 against Ohio State. And I believe one of those touchdowns was late in the game after it was already a blowout. So they're a team that in meaningful games against legitimate teams is scoring about 14 points a game. For all of the flaws on Washington, and I don't think they're very good either. You know, it's pretty crazy to think about Washington. DeMond Williams Jr. is their quarterback. And there was talk early in the Lane Kiffin time at LSU that they were trying to make a legit push for this guy. Like there was actually, I want to say there was a report that he was coming to LSU and eventually he stayed at Washington.

Like, they ain't doing much there now, but I think that they're going to win. So that's tomorrow night. I would take, I would take, I think Louisville is going to win comfortably at home against Florida. state. I think Washington is going to win comfortably at home against Iowa because I don't believe Iowa can score. So there are two and a half point favorite. Washington can win that game 17 to 10 and easily cover the spread. They could win 20 to 10 and easily cover the spread, 20 to 14 and easily cover the spread. Until proven otherwise, Iowa cannot do dick offensively. and Washington can probably do enough offensively and they're at home.

So I was having to come off a plane against Ohio State, maybe the best team in the country, one of them. Now they have to travel and find themselves over in Washington for a short week game. I really enjoy Washington in that game. All right, nothing else on Friday really does anything for me. Indiana, Nebraska, I also think Indiana sucks. The idea that Indiana is the number seven team in the country's a four. farce. They play, this is the first time in a while, they haven't seen seemingly haven't played on a

Friday, but they play close games against people. They start slow. The dude that they got from TCU hasn't really been all that great. I don't like Indiana. This is not the week they're going to lose because Nebraska's dog shit too, but Indiana is a total paper tiger farce of a team. They're bullshit and they're surviving because their schedule has been embarrassing. Again, look at, look at their schedule. Rutgers, Northwest. Western, Western Kentucky. My God, the Indiana schedule so far through five games has been an embarrassment. As far as like a schedule for a major college program goes, North Texas, Howard, Western Kentucky, Northwestern, and Rutgers is embarrassing.

The fact that that's the number seven team in the country, get fucking lost. They're going to beat Nebraska. They're going to go on the road and beat Nebraska because nobody believes in Nebraska. Then they're going to host Ohio State, and Ohio State's going to score 50. on these guys. God, you look at Nebraska, my God. You look at Nebraska's schedule. Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota,

shitty Michigan State and Maryland. My God. The Big Ten is such a waste of fucking time. Anybody who wants to come at me or anybody else with the idea that the Big Ten is some sort of great conference because they've had the national champion the last couple years,

that is also a farce. Just because the national champion came from your conference doesn't mean top to bottom your conference. doesn't mean top to bottom your conference is worth of shit. Look at the Big Ten and you're like, you've got teams like Northwestern and good for them. They beat Penn State.

You know who sucks? Fucking Penn State. Oh, God. You know what, though? Here's the interesting thing. I think Iowa was a total, I think Indiana's a joke, okay? I think Indiana schedule is a joke. I hate the coach.

I hate everything about Indiana. Go back to your hole. Go back to where you came from Indiana. I hate you. That said, Nebraska 5 and 0 2 and 0 might be a bigger farce. Indiana, I'm kind of leaning towards Indiana going into Nebraska and winning that thing comfortably,

making themselves feel good going into Ohio State when Ohio State's going to beat the shit out of them. Also, game I love. You've got Texas A&M going to Missouri, early game in the SEC. Missouri is a three and a half point favorite. A&M is going to win that out. right. Missouri's in that perfect spot right now where they're feeling good about themselves. Every week, there's a couple of spots. We talk about this on the pot all the time. There are spots

that you run into, right? And you go, okay, this is a spot that just makes sense. Missouri at home against Florida, right, after Florida had beaten Ole Miss, Ole Miss against LSU at home with Lane Kiffing coming back. It's a spot. Florida, going to Missouri after beating Ole Miss. It was a perfect spot for Missouri. Missouri, people are feeling them now. They're number 14 in the country. They beat this overhyped Florida team. A&M left for dead. You know, they went out and did, you know, they got bludgeoned by LSU. They followed that up with just kind of a ho-hum, you know, easy win over Arkansas. They've done nothing really significant. They've lost to Kentucky. They got blown out by LSU. A&M is going to go into Missouri as a three and a half point

underdog and A&M is going to win. And I'm saying this, and this is not based on any sort of like breakdown of talent for talent. You know, Marcel Reed sucks, okay? And I got this guy Simmons that can sling it around at Missouri. It's truly just a spot situation. I think A&M is going to go into Missouri after Missouri's feeling good. They're ranked number 14 in the country. They've played one game against anybody because that's what Missouri does.

Look at Missouri's schedule so far. It's a clown show. It's a clown college. Arkansas, Pine Bluff, Kansas, Troy. Mississippi State who beat them. Then they jump up to number 14 in the country because they beat Florida. A&M is going to go into Missouri and they are going to win that game. A&M Money Line is what we're rolling with in that one.

UCF and Oklahoma State, I have no thoughts on that, although that dude fucking from Oklahoma State, the quarterback there can sling it around. So here's the thing. So Pitt is a three and a half point favorite. at home against North Carolina. Pitt's quarterback, a guy by the name of, what the fuck is that guy, Mason Heinzel.

Mason Heinzel is out, got hurt last week against Virginia Tech. Pitt's still number 25 in the country. Pitt got lucky to beat Virginia Tech at Virginia Tech. Tech had a kick to win the game. They missed it. Carolina three and a half. Why is Pitt still favored with a backup quarterback? Is Pitt that much better than Carolina?

is there a possibility that maybe, possibly, that Belichick, you know, I mean, the guy's a pretty smart guy, can he figure out how to be the backup quarterback on the road, maybe? Let's see, Arizona's favorite at West Virginia. That's a long trip, man. That is a long trip to go. You're going from Arizona all the way over to West Virginia. You're a three-point favorite. I love my man, Fafida, but that's a weird one.

NC states an underdog at home against W. Wake Forest, nothing there. See, Florida's at home against South Carolina. They're favored by 11 and a half. I'll do you one better. I would not be shocked if Florida lost that game. Now, would I pick them to lose the game? No.

South Carolina is a two and three team. They lost, they blew a big lead against Kentucky, but they got up. Remember, if you're going to blow a big lead against somebody, you have to have a big lead against somebody. You know, they're capable. You know, they lost by, other than Alabama who beat the shit out, and they lost by, By a touchdown to Mississippi State, they lost by a point on a two-point conversion to Kentucky. Do I think they're incredible?

No. But I don't think Florida's incredible. Again, Florida ran into a wonderful spot where you had a team coming off the most emotional game. They've played in a million years. They beat LSU. That's Ole Miss. Then you get them at home. I would not be shocked.

If as an 11.5 point favorite, you end up seeing a loss from Florida at home to South Carolina. Wouldn't pick it. I think it's possible. Let's see. Texas is a seven-and-a-half-point favorite in the Red River shootout. Oklahoma's so bad. They're anemic offensively. Like I could not take Oklahoma plus seven and a half of this. I've paid too much attention to Oklahoma's offense because I bet too much shit with John Mateer.

They're two and two. Let me look at this. 13 against Georgia. Now, Georgia doesn't give up a lot to anybody, but 13 to Georgia. 10 to Michigan. They scored 14 fucking points against New Mexico. code. They don't have. Now, you can say it's a rivalry. I wonder how much a rivalry game even matters anymore. And we talk about this a lot on the pot. How much does a rivalry game even matter in college sports?

Because a lot of these guys are pay for play guys. They're not dudes that have stayed there for four years. Like, if you went to Oklahoma right now, how much do you really hate Texas? If you go to Texas, how much do you really hate Oklahoma? I wouldn't be shocked if, like, look, if you said gun to your head and you had to pick a spread in this game, I would take Texas minus seven and a half because Oklahoma sucks. Their offense is dreadful. Texas can move it up and down the field. They start slow a lot of the time and all that. I would take Texas.

If gun to your head, that's basically what this segment is, gun to your head segment, you have to take somebody and it has to be the spread. It can't be straight up. I would go seven and a half minus seven and a half Texas in that one. Hey, wow, Notre Dame is a 39.5 point favorite against Stanford. Who knew that Notre Dame would be playing more games against shitty teams? Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue and North Carolina. Now shitty Stanford.

Congrats, Notre Dame. Let's see. Other stuff here. Vanderbilt and Ole Miss. Ole Miss only nine and a half on the road, huh? And Ole Miss, what, they had a buy week last week, right? Because they were coming off that loss to Florida. You know what?

I think Ole Miss goes into Vanderbilt and just kicks the shit out of these guys. Now, Vandy's played a couple of close games. Like they got lucky to beat North Carolina State. Like Vandy's three and two. They haven't won an SEC game. They got lucky to beat NC State because NC State inexplicably fumbled in the end zone when all they had to do was throw the ball out of the back of the end zone to win. Vanderbilt close game against Auburn got blown out by Georgia everybody gets blown out by Georgia

I don't believe that Vanderbilt has the firepower to hang with Ole Miss so you're looking at what was that number nine and a half is it realistic that you could be looking at it because remind you old miss coming off a buy Ole Miss super pissed after having to go to Florida and lose Ole Miss will probably score in the neighborhood of 45 to 48 points of this game. Probably. Georgia scored 38. Okay, fine. Auburn scored 21 against Vandy.

Fine. And look, you look at Vandy, what's the highest point total someone's put up on them? Georgia, 38. But they've also played Delaware and Austin P. And North Carolina State. They haven't faced arguably the best quarterback in college football. So let's just say conservatively, conservatively here,

Ole Miss scores 38. That's conservative. But I think they're going to score more than Georgia did last week on Vanderbilt. So let's say they get to 41 conservatively. Do you believe that Vanderbilt can score 31 points against Ole Miss when so far this year they have scored 31 points twice? And that was against Delaware and North Carolina. Carolina State. So no, I don't. So that's how I gauge that. I don't believe that Vanderbilt's going to

hang within 10 points of Ole Miss on the road. Now, if Ole Miss had played last week, maybe so, they've had a week off, best quarterback in college football, they're going to go into Vanderbilt, they're going to beat the shit out of them. UCLA and Oregon, you've got mini-mahomes for Oregon. I think UCLA is overvalued at number 21, big time overvalued. They've played Maryland, Purdue, San Diego State, and Cal. Congratulations. think they're going to get their comeuppance this weekend. Mini Mojones, you're talking about having value and having a good backup. Mini Mojones, who's kind of toned down the whole, you know, cosplay came in. You think about that for Oregon.

They could have been left for dead against USC. Now, USC is a totally overrated piece of shit team. But you lose your quarterback in the first half. You have every excuse to lose that game. Mini Mahomes comes in and, like, throws for fucking 300 yards and two and a half quarters, and they win. So you've got a guy that's had time to work with the number ones now. I think Mnheim Holmes is playing. I can see Oregon blowing the doors off of UCLA.

I think UCLA is totally overvalued. No one gives a shit about UCLA. They've played nobody. Oregon. I mean, look, you want to look at Oregon and say a team's tested. They've gone on the road, lost to a pretty good Oklahoma State team. They went on the road with their backup quarterback for two and a half quarters and beat USC. And they beat Boise State.

pretty solid little team. So I think I would not be shocked if at home, and I believe Oregon's coming off a buy, right? I think Oregon could kick the shit out of UCLA. Prove it, UCLA. That would be my point about UCLA. Prove it. Let's see. U of H's at Kansas State.

I don't really have a feel on that one. Let's see. Ohio State at home against Maryland, they're favored by 32. That's a gigantic number. Maryland sucks, but 32 and a half points is a lot. Tennessee is at Arkansas. Tennessee is a two touchdown. I don't have a feel on that one either. Arkansas is dreadful, but I don't have a feel on that. LSU eight and a half points at Kentucky. I don't believe in Kentucky either. You know, by the way, I'm glad Kentucky won the game they won last week. That was good that they did because I would prefer Kentucky feeling good about themselves at home against LSU as opposed to Kentucky coming off a loss at home against LSU. So I prefer, that, you know, I have a lot of questions about LSU as well.

And LSU could lose. I don't think they will, but they could. I don't buy Kentucky. Kentucky falls into the same category with Mississippi State, where two weeks ago, a week and a half ago, the whole world's blowing Kentucky, the whole world's blowing Mississippi State. What happens when the world starts blowing Camario Taylor in Mississippi State? They get their dicks knocked off by Alabama.

What happens when the whole world's blowing Kentucky? They had to rally and beat fucking, uh, uh, South Carolina and do it on a two-point inversion last week. I don't believe in either one of these teams. LSU is going to go on the road and beat Kentucky. Will they beat them by eight and a half? I don't fucking know. I don't really have a feel on that.

But they're going to win that game. Let's see. USC is at Penn State. My God, what a disaster that is. My first thought, though, is that USC goes to Penn State and wins that, even though I have no faith in USC. Penn State's an embarrassment. Like, these guys are a clown college. They're three and two.

They went to Northwestern last week and got the shit kicked out of them. They've lost to Wisconsin. But, you know, I'm just first thought is you're getting points. And USC's not great, but also USC's a one-loss team. And USC's one loss to a good Oregon team. Now, granted, they did that with their backup quarterback, but they also haven't played anybody. They give up a lot of points. But just Penn State is so bad offensively.

13 points against Northwestern, 20 against Wisconsin, struggled against Temple and only scored 27 points. I just, ugh. I mean, look, if you said, again, gun to your head, do I believe that USC is going to go across the country and beat Penn State? I guess. But, ew. I guess it's the one word I'd use to describe that as, ooh. Let's see here. Georgia and Alabama.

Oh, boy, now we're excited. Alabama is a slight favorite. I don't know how good George's offense is, and I don't know how good George's quarterback is, the balding guy that's their quarterback. This young dude, now, here's one important note for Alabama at the quarterback position. And old buddy's been out there slinging for Alabama, so give him credit. Like, he can sling. They start slowing a lot of these games.

But look at the schedule that Alabama has played so far. East Carolina, Kentucky. Again, they beat Kentucky by 30 fucking points. They beat Florida State by two touchdowns. Those are bad teams. I mean, Florida State's a marginal team. Kentucky's a decent team. East Carolina, whatever.

South Carolina is a bad team. They beat them by 30. And they beat Mississippi State, the flavor of the week, by 33. My question is what happens with young quarterback when you finally face not just a good team, but arguably the best team in the country? that's the question I have. I think this matchup's fantastic, though. Like, we finally get to see what Keel and Russell is.

You got number two versus number six. You finally get to see what Keel and Russell is. Like, I don't buy Gunner Stockton. Now, they haven't had to do a lot, but I don't know why. Like, I just, for whatever reason, maybe it's because, again, their schedule has been nothing that's been fantastic. So you're like, okay, cool. I mean, look at who they've beat in Tennessee State, Western Kentucky.

Oklahoma who's terrible, Arkansas, who's terrible, Vanderbilt, who's terrible. Like, this is the first real test for both of these teams. This game's sexy. Like, my initial thought is veteran quarterback, veteran coach, take Georgia. Man, this dude Russell's been out here slinging, man. Slight favorite at home for Alabama. I mean, I would, I guess I, look, I lean Bama, man. like even though I just told you you've got

veteran quarterback all that and again maybe Russell finally finds out how the other half lives it's very possible but at least he's at home if this game is at Georgia you easily say Georgia you got you know young quarterback on the road at Georgia at home I don't know I don't know but also weather could play a major factor

in this game as well they're moving game day inside for this so weather could play a factor who's going to be able to run the ball in this game because you may not be able to sling it much All right, let's see here Other matchups Kansas and Utah That's not really that interesting

Boise and Fresno No we got late Hawaii At Arizona State Arizona State's 20 and a half favorite of that one So there you go There's some of your Your college matchups I did

I guess to me The one that's the biggest one That I would say fits into a system If you will Would be I think A&M is going to go on the road and beat Missouri. May end up wrong, but I think A&M is. It's a perfect spot for Missouri feeling great about themselves, and they're at home,

which makes it like they're feeling good, they're at home. They just beat this team that everybody was blowing in Florida, so they feel good about themselves. A&M, everyone thinks they suck. You know, they got bludgeoned by LSU a couple of weeks ago. They played a ho-hum game against Arkansas and won. They're on the road. I think A&M goes into Missouri and wins that.

That would be my favorite pick of the. the week. I also like Washington at home against Iowa because I'll never pick Iowa to win shit. That's Friday. I would never take Iowa to win a fucking thing because I was a waste of everybody's time. But Missouri is my favorite pick of the week. Texas A&M at Missouri, Texas A&M to win the game. That would be my favorite play of the day. And there you go. And there's college football. where some see heroes and others see egos Bloomberg sees the era of billionaire athletes a fad to some

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