The Josh Innes Show - Let's Pick NFL Wild Card Round Winners

Episode Date: January 6, 2026

Which teams will be advancing to the divisional round? Can the Rams avoid a second upset at the hands of the Panthers? Are the Bears for real? How much pressure is on Josh Allen? Can the Eagles offense figure it out enough? Are the Patriots primed for a run? Is this the end for Aaron Rodgers? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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All right, let's take a look at the NFL as we're a couple days away now from the playoffs starting. Well, more than a couple days away. Today's what Tuesday, start on Saturday. So let's do this. Let's take a look at what Draft Kings has to offer in terms of futures bets for the postseason who's going to win the Super Bowl and some other shit.

Let's actually, and we'll start with picking the games for this weekend. Let's just get it right out of the way, right out of the shoot this week, who we think are going to advance, or which teams we think are going to advance out of this first race. and how things are going to go. Hell, I might fill out an entire fucking bracket for you. How about we do this? Let's play a couple commercials, and then we will get into it.

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Expedia, made to travel. All right, here we go. Let us begin with, first of all, just the lines for this weekend. All right, let me write this down. Let me get a pen here. Got a pen, and I've got a, my wife has so many, like, pads and shit

for each one of her stations. So this one, Wednesday, Nashville, then there's a whole pad for Salt Lake City and Harrisburg. Here's what I'll do. I'm going to use her little mini dry erase board here, so I don't have to use any of her paper. There we go. That's love. All right, so we will start with this, just the ones I think are going to win this week. The Rams are going to smoke Carolina.

So L.A. is going to advance. I believe the Packers are going to beat the bears. I believe the, let's see, I think I'm going to have to ride with Buffalo. It's a tough one. because, like, I don't trust Josh Allen. Well, I trust Josh Allen more than I trust the fact that most of his weapons just, he didn't have a deep threat. He doesn't have an elite receiver.

He's got a bunch of, like, over the middle, five-yard catch, try to outrun people, dudes. Solid tight-in play with Kincaid. Knox is fine, but Kincaid's the stud tight-in. They'll throw it to the running back. Allen will run some. Look, I think the bills are going to win, but I'm only doing that because of Josh Allen, and I don't trust the Jaguars. Like, the Jaguars are a Johnny come,

lately they're having a great moment the bills have been there done that it's hard for me to go against the been there done that squad especially because this is shitter get off the pot for alan right like if you're josh allen this has to be like if i'm not if i'm not going to win it this year i'm never going to win it because my homes will eventually be back and burrow will eventually be back and the guys that are there are only going to get better presumably so if you're not going to get there this year and that's got to be going through the guy's head that's got to be going do the coach's head. Everybody's head in Buffaloes, if not now, when. So we're going to take the bills. We're going to take the Eagles because this is just what the Eagles do, right?

They're just going to find a way to win that. And they're favored, by the way, by damn near five points. They're a four and a half point favorite. We're going to take the, I'm going to take the Pats at home because I just don't think health-wise, the charges are there. Their offensive line is an issue. And then we're going to take the Texans. All right, so there's our play. So those are the teams we think are going to advance. So let's look at each game and say why. First off, the Rams are just, to me, the Rams are the best team in the NFL. So the Rams are going to win the game against the Panthers. They've already lost once. They played their asses off to win that game on Sunday. That's why they played their starters because they wanted to play

Carolina. Now you get to go to Carolina. You get the dopey 430 Saturday game, which, by the way, what a move for the Texans. The Texans are finally not playing that 4.30-3-30 Central Saturday game for the first time in the playoff history of the Houston Texans, their first playoff game, isn't it 3-30-4-30 East on Saturday afternoon? That's number one. So the Rams and Panthers, thank you for that. Second, and I forgot to mention this the other day, I mean, obviously if you follow the Texans, you know this, but it's a pretty remarkable piece of information. So the Texans have been around since 2002. So what is this? Year 23, year 24 for the Texans. This is the first time the Texans have made the postseason as a wild card.

Every time they've won, they've won the AFC South, and every time they've made the playoffs, they've played at 430 slash 330 Central on Saturday. What we are witnessing here is history, kiddos. This is the most significant playoff game, maybe in the history of the Texans, most notably because they're not playing at 430. In fact, they're playing prime time on Monday. But anyway, so Rams, there's not a ton of breakdown to do here. The Panthers are not good. The Rams are extremely good. I don't care that the Panthers lucked out and won a couple of games. Fine. They beat the Rams earlier this year. Fine. McVeigh ain't fucking losing to the Panthers. Stafford ain't losing to the Panthers unless it's like some sort of odd situation

where like a monsoon happens and the weather wreaks havoc and it muddies up the game. But if the weather is, let's see what the weather is, that's an important factor in Carolina. Let's see, Charlotte weather. Let's see what Charlotte, North Carolina has to offer. Today, it's 66 degrees, okay? But let's take a look at Saturday. Now, there is rain in the forecast on Saturday. A little bit, not a ton. Precipitation, 20%, 71 degrees, and who knows how things are going to change prior to that. It ain't enough of, if it's like a hurricane or something, then maybe it muddles things up enough where maybe Carolina steals the game. That's it. And that ain't going to happen. So the Rams are going to that one and they're going to advance. They are the five seat, obviously. So we'll see where they

end up playing in the second round. All right. Packers and Bears. So here's how I feel bears wise. I don't believe in them and I haven't believed in them all year. They're a product of a shitty schedule. I give them credit. They want a couple of games that I guess they shouldn't have won. If you want to circle one of the Packers games and say they shouldn't have won that, okay. And I'm just talking about on paper before the game starts. They beat the Eagles, but let's be real. This ain't your Eagles, the saint your young nephew's Eagles. This is a different team. Their offense is not impressive. So it's not shocking that the Bears were able to do something. Really, the shocking thing was I guess that the Eagles didn't move the ball against the Bears whose defense is not very good.

I am a big supporter of Caleb. I think the dude can sling it. Obviously, Johnson can coach. I mean, you've got all of these elements to it, right? Ben Johnson can coach. They've got good weapons when they're healthy. I think they're going to get Romadunze back. Luther Burden has emerged as a baller. You still have DJ Moore. Colston Loveland has become a massive target for them at tied in. They still have commit who can make a couple of plays out of the backfield. You got Manungai and Swift. So like on paper, they are a solid squad. On paper, I like their squad better than the Packers. At least offensively, I like the weapons they have better than I like the weapons the Packers have. But I'm not a big believer in these teams that are the Johnny

come lately, benefit from the soft schedule, get to the playoffs, host a game. I don't like them against teams that have been there, done that. And I'm not a big Packers guy. I like Jordan Love. I don't really like his receivers. I'm okay with his titans and receivers. They're fine. Obviously, a big factor in that is you make the move from Micah. He's hurt. I get it. this is more of an anti-bear's play than a pro-packers play. The bears are a slight underdog at home. I'm not a big believer in taking the Johnny Come Lately teams. Very rarely do you get into these scenarios where the team that, you know,

is left for dead last year, gets a new coach, plays a last play schedule, makes it to the playoffs. I'm not a believer in those teams. So the Packers have been there, done that. The Packers have already beaten them once. They damn near beat them again. I am going to take the Packers in Chicago. I wonder what the weather is. I'm now fascinated by the weather.

What is the weather in Chicago this weekend? Let's take a look. That game is on Saturday. It will be 39 degrees and potentially snowing. Here's why that doesn't bother me because these dudes are from Green Bay. You know what they see all the time? 39 degrees and potentially snowing. That's like a balmy day for them.

So I'm not concerned about the future of the Packers in Chicago. It's the same shit, different city for them, so I'm not worried. So Packers and Rams advance on Saturday. Sunday, this is another situation where I'm not taking the Johnny come lately. And I get that the Jaguars have dudes who've been in the playoffs before. New coach. This is completely a Bills, Josh Allen, no choice but to win. Like you could argue, and it seems ridiculous to say this,

but you could argue that this is a legacy game for Josh Allen because it's one thing to go out and lose to Patrick Mahomes consistently and they'll look back on you and go, you'll go. lost to Patrick Mahomes again, whatever, and that might just be what you're known for. You're just known for being the guy that loses to Patrick Mahomes. Cool. But you can live with that because Patrick Mahomes will go down as the most successful quarterback of this era of the NFL. So, you know, what are you going to do? You just accept the fact that Patrick Mahomes is going to be your dad-da and you live with it,

right? Like, it sucks, but like if that's the worst thing that ever happened to you that you couldn't get past Patrick Mahomes, you know, there are guys that couldn't get past Jordan, certain guys who can't get past certain people. Like, it is what it is. But if you can't get past the Jaguars on the road in a playoff game when you know there's no Pat Mahom standing in front of you anywhere, when you know that the quarterback standing in front of you are going to all be dudes who've never done it before, where it's going to be Drake May who's never done it before,

when it's going to be Herbert who hasn't done it before, other than Aaron Rogers. And CJ's won some playoff games, I get that. But everything's standing in front of, front of you is stuff that you shouldn't be overly concerned about like teams that you can say okay look we're the buffalo bills we're here every freaking year you can make a case that all of these teams in front of you are new blood you're there how do you not win this game like if you don't win this game like I would argue that losing a game like this is more detrimental for Josh Allen than any of the

losses to Mahomes like the 13 second loss like all of those again you could live with those because that's fucking mahomes you can say I lost a fucking pat ma'homes it's it's a lot I lost to fucking pat Mahomes, it sucks, and I wanted to beat Pat Mahomes, but he's Pat Mahomes. You go out and lose to these dudes, it's like, that takes a massive, like, that is, that takes belt to ass, as it were, for your reputation. Really for the bills at this point, specifically for Josh Allen. This is not a bills referendum, because no one's ever going to look back and go, boy, did you hear that, you know, Khalil Shakir didn't make it to the Super Bowl or that, you know,

Dawson Knox didn't make it to the Super Bowl? this is on the coach it's Sean McDermott and it's Josh Allen that's who this is if you want to call it a referendum or whatever that's what this is this will be legacy for them

because if the bills and I don't by the way I don't think the bills are as good as the Texans I don't think the bills are as good as some of these teams but that doesn't matter what it comes down to is it's okay you've lost to Mahomes

that's life you've lost some real heartbreakers that's life what you can't do is lose to first year Jacksonville Duvall coach. You can't do that. You cannot lose to that squad.

And really, you can't lose to the next squad or the squad after that. The only acceptable winning outcome for the Buffalo Bills this season is at least making it to the Super Bowl. Out of every team that's in the postseason this year, the greatest pressure is on the Buffalo Bills. And I don't think that's debatable.

I mean, you can try to sell it like, well, what about the Steelers? because what if this is the end of Aaron Rogers? Aaron Rogers is won. He's won the Super Bowl. He's won multiple MVP. And yeah, you'd like to win and maybe,

you know, it sucks for him because his career's over after this. Maybe, maybe not. But how much pressure is that? Are people expecting you to beat the Texans? I don't know. I don't think so.

Is there pressure on Drake May? No, he's a first timer. I'd say that if you wanted to rank the pressure, and maybe we'll save that for the next podcast. Let me get through the picks on these games. And we can rank, I like that. We'll rank, let me write that down. ranking pressure. All right, rank pressure. Cool. Okay.

But I'm going to go bills just because of that. Eagles, I just, I don't trust the 49ers. I don't trust Purdy. Do you believe that Brock Purdy is going to go on the road in Philadelphia, nasty defense, and Brock Purdy is going to win the game? Brock Purdy didn't show up against Seattle this week. Do you think that on a Sunday afternoon, in Philly, raucous crowd. It's going to be a nice day seemingly in Philly. It's going to be a nice day. I just don't believe in Brock Purdy

going on the road and winning that game. I don't believe in the Eagles offense at all either. But what this could be is one of those games where the Eagles offense finally shows up and then the whole world's like, oh my God, this is the team that's been there the whole year and oh my God. Like it has all the makings of that.

So I think the Eagles are going to win that one. I still don't think they're any good offensively. I don't know how far they're going to make it. But I saw somebody, something so stupid that something like well we've reached our ceiling with nick seriani he's a dumb asshole and we've we that's as high as he can go oh you mean going to two super bowls and winning one of them fuck andy reed didn't do that when he was in philly now again i'm not selling telling you that nick syriani is and i think the guy's a dipshit but like what are you going to you're not

going to fire some coach who won the super bowl and went to another one although you did fire a coach who did win the super bowl so maybe you will charges and patriots i'd really like this to be a Herbert thing because I like Herbert a lot. I just don't think they have the offensive line for it. I think that Vrable figures it out defensively. I think they can move the ball and I think they're going to move the ball on the Chargers. I think the Patriots win this. This could end up being a game not with the biggest spread of the weekend, like with the biggest victory, but this may not be all that close. And then the Texans and the Steelers, I think the Texans on the road are going to win that game. And I think that'll be the end of Aaron Rogers, at least for

this year. Maybe he bounces back another year. Maybe not. But I'm going to take Steelers. Now what we're going to do, let's get into another one here. Let's just continue breaking things down in the postseason. We'll do that here in just a sec.