The Josh Innes Show - My Lions Bet Lives!!

Episode Date: December 5, 2025

Thank you Lions for getting a huge win over the Cowboys and keeping my playoff bet alive. Now, what do I need to actually win this $1,000?? Let's start breaking this down. Let's look at the NFC playoff picture. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, everybody. Let's take a look at some of the games this weekend. Let's do that. I haven't looked at the lines. I haven't looked at anything. I haven't made any bets this week. I haven't been messing around on the betting apps this week. So I have no clue what's going on. I have no idea what the point spreads for any of these games are. So let's take a look at the matchups. Now, obviously, last night, the Lions kept their season alive and more importantly kept my bet alive. The way things are looking right now, I mean, not virtually. Well, I guess technically not everything is hit in my lion. season bet because I need like another 600 yards or something like that from Jared Gough and maybe a couple more yards from Amman Ross St. Brown.

But I think Jemir Gibbs has his and I think James and Williams has his. So I need Gough to throw for like another 600 yards or something. I need Amin Ra to get somewhere in the neighborhood of less than 100 yards. And then I need the Lions to make the playoffs. And last night, they came through in a major, major way for me. Getting the W, saving the season. Now, doesn't mean they're going to make the playoffs. No, but it keeps it alive, which means it also puts it in a position where maybe they'll offer me a cash out and maybe that cash out will be worth something.

Obviously, there's a big game this weekend with the Packers and the Bears, and I don't know who to root for in that. I mean, really, I guess what it's going to come down to is you're going to have three wild card spots. Well, first of all, let's play a couple commercials and we'll get into it. You're going to run into three wild card spots that need to be filled, right? and all of those wild card spots are going to come from either the NFC West or the NFC North because the Cowboys are pretty much out of the wild card race now. Their season pretty much ended with that loss yesterday unless they catch the Eagles, which I still don't think they're going to do.

So there's not going to be a wild card out of the east, and there's not going to be a wild card out of the NFC South, obviously. It's either going to be Carolina or Tampa, and it's probably going to be Tampa, and I don't see Carolina getting a wild card. So then what you're going to have is the division winners, four division winners, and there's going to be four teams essentially fighting for three wild card spots. So really, if you're the Lions, and I am the Lions in this case, because I need the Lions to make the playoffs. If you are the Lions, then what you need is to root against all of those teams.

The problem is they're all going to play each other. Now, that's kind of good because they're going to cannibalize each other as well. It's just a matter of which teams based on who you've played and who you've beaten, you would prefer that they play and beat, right? So the bears are the best opportunity for the lions, right? Really, I guess you should root for Green Bay then, right? Because you have the advantage over the bears. You've beaten the bears once and you still play the bear so you can control your own destiny there.

So really, the play is to root for the Packers to win that division and the bears to be one of the other wild cards. And then you just take out the bears who you essentially, not even essentially, you do, control your own destiny. If you win out, and, well, I say that. If the Packers beat the Bears, then I think you control your own destiny at that point, right? Because there's a one game difference between the teams and really one and a half because the Packers have a tie. So you got a route for the Packers to beat the Bears. That's what it comes down to. If the Packers beat the Bears this weekend, I'd assume their favorites slightly, if the Packers beat the Bears and then the Bears fall off a cliff, which I think the Bears are going to do, that is your

biggest hope. Now, the bad news is the lions play the Rams next week, and that could be a loss. That's on the road. The lions are beat up. They just lost Brian Branch for the year with the torn Achilles. Like, they are beat up. So the odds of them going to L.A. and beating the Rams, not great. But you can still survive with that loss because you get the Bears in a head-to-head matchup, and you've got a couple other winnable games in there. But it'll be nice to beat the Rams. It's not imperative that you beat the Rams. It would be great if you'd beat the Rams next week. Again, I know a lot of you listening are like, who the hell cares? I do because my season bet could win me damn near $1,000.

So, let's see here. Taking a look at some of these matchups this weekend, I do think that I don't know if I think this, but I hope this. I hope that the Packers win. Let me look at the standings really quick, playoff picture that we're looking at right now. Let's take a look at the playoff standings. As it stands right now in the NFC, the Lions have a, what is the their number, a 58% chance of making the playoffs. The Bears have a

75% chance. I mean, look, all the teams above them. The Lions are like, right now the Lions have the least likelihood of making the playoffs of the teams that have any likelihood of making the playoffs. The Lions have a 12% chance of winning the division.

So the hope is you get in as a wild card and the Bears would be your next best bet. The Packers control their own destiny. They're an 89% chance to make the playoffs, a 56% chance to win the division. The Bears are a 75% chance to make the playoffs and a 32% to win the division. So what does that mean for me? And us, because we're a collective. We're a unit here. What does that mean for us? Well, what it means for us is, I think our best bet is to root against the Bears in every game and go from there. I don't know what all

the other schedules look like, but now I'm genuinely curious. Let's take a look at the standings. All right, we're going to start there. So let's look at the standings and see who all these other teams have. I know you have your own issues. I'm supposed to look at the games for this weekend. I will look at the games for this weekend. But I am focused. I am laser focused right now on the Rams, Seahawks, 49ers, Bears, Packers, Lions. That's who I'm focused on right now. So the Rams, their remaining schedule is the Cardinals who they should beat, the Lions, Seahawks, Falcons. So the Seahawks and Rams are going to eat each other once. That's good. I think they should. And then the problem is they

give them the Cardinals twice at the end of the season here, which is not good, because they have the Falcons as well. So, like, the Rams are more than likely. I mean, they're going to beat the Cardinals twice. They may go on the road and lose to the Seahawks. If the Seahawks are going to beat them, beating them at home seems the most likely. And I think they're going to beat the Lions at home, and they're going to beat the Falcons. So in their last five, they're going to probably finish, I mean, at worst four and one. I'd say it worst three and two, but they're probably four and one, right?

so the Rams finished 4 and 1 which means they end the season 13 and 4 all right 13 and 4 so let's pencil let's write this down we're having a little thing here so we're going to pencil them in at 13 let me grab my tablet hold on we're going to pencil them in at Rams okay Rams 13 and 4 because I think they're going to beat the Lions next week I just don't see them losing at home in that game So the Rams are 13 and 4 The Seahawks They face the Falcons who they'll beat The Colts at home who I think they'll beat

Because by that time The quarterback's leg may fall off So you've got the Seahawks They're going to go on the road And I think they're going to beat the Falcons this weekend Right They could lose that but I think they'll win it And then I think at home against the Colts they'll win

At home against the Rams I let's give We gave that win to the Rams before So we're going to give it to them now. So, no, we gave that a loss to the Rams or they lose to the Rams. So, no, they beat the Rams. There. Okay, good. I was confused. So let's just say in those three games, they go three and oh. They beat the Panthers. Four. I don't think they're going to go five and oh and win seven in a row to end the year. So let's just call them four and one. I don't know where you're

going to find it, but we're going to go four and one, which would make them what? 13 and four for Seattle. Then we look at San Francisco. Like this is going to be a log jam in that. I think all these teams are probably going to make the playoffs. San Francisco's got, oh boy, San Francisco, the Titans, the Colts, the Bears, the Seahawks. So at home against the Seahawks, let's give them that win. I think they're going to beat the Bears at home. I think they're going to beat they're going to, they got four games left. Like, I'm going to call them three and one just because. but if they go three and one, that makes them 12 and 5.

So then they're 12 and 5. So let's just, again, I'm just not going to give them a win-out situation for San Francisco. They could, but I'm not going to call it that. So let's say they finished 12 and 5. So Rams 13 and 4, Seattle 13 and 4, whoever has the tiebreaker in there wins the division. So 12 and 5 is the number you're looking at if you are the Lions. Again, this is our play. It's not just for me.

This is for us, okay, because I love you guys. So then you go and you look at the NFC north, right? The bears are currently 9 and 3. 12 and 5 is really a number we need to shoot for if we're the lions here, which is going to be a tough put because you have to win out, which is just probably not going to happen. So you look at the schedule for the bears. I think they lose to the Packers on the road.

They beat the Brown, so they're 1 in 1. They host the Packers. Let's say they win that. That makes them 2 in 1. Look, I actually, I don't think they're going to win that. I don't. I think they're going to lose both games to the Packers, and I think they're going to lose to the 49ers, and I think they very well could lose to the Lions. I'm going to call the Bears in their last five games. I'm going to call the Bears 2 and 3 because I hate the Bears and I don't think they're good. I think they're a farce. I don't buy them at all. So we're going to say the Bears are 2 and 3. That makes the Bears 11 and 6. Okay, 11 and 6 Chicago. So now that makes the number you need to get to 11 wins to get into the playoffs right now as it stands. 11 is the number you're probably going to need to get to, which means the Packers are going to beat them twice. So the Packers are currently, what are they, 8, 4 and 1, right?

Or 8, 3 in 1. So the Packers, I'm assuming they beat the Bears twice just because I don't believe in the Bears. They play the Broncos. Let's say Green Bay goes on the road and loses to the Broncos. So they're 2 and 1 because they play Bears, Broncos, bear. So they go 2 and 1 there. They're at home versus the Ravens, who I don't believe in. Let's say they win that one.

So they're 3 in 1. the Vikings are a drag, so they're four and one. So let's just say four and one Packers in that. So the Packers then finish the season, 12, 4, and 1. 12, 4, and 1. So they're in and they're going to win the division. So you need to get to 11 wins. Where do the Lions get to 11 wins?

Well, to get to 11 wins, you don't have to win in your next game against the Rams, but it would behoove you to do that. You should be able to beat Pittsburgh at home because Pittsburgh's defense blows. They're not very good. All right. Good. Fine. So you lose that. Say you lose to the Rams. Fine. You beat Pittsburgh. You're one in one. The Vikings are terrible and you've already lost. You look back on when my bet's not going to hit. It's going to be because you lost to bums like the Vikings. You lost to fucking nine. Like what are you doing? Like those kind of games are killers, right? That's what's going to kill us. It's not going to be that you lost to the chiefs, whatever. Teams lose to the Chiefs. It's not going to be that you lost to the Eagles, whatever. It's going to be that you lost to bums. When you look back on this, you're going to say you lost to the bumass Vikings. And that's what you're going to look back on and say that's what killed you. That's going to keep you from getting to the 12 wins you want to get to. But they're currently 8 and 5.

They can max out at 12. Let's say they lose to the Rams. So they're 0 and 1. Say they beat the Steelers at home in their home finale. They're 1 and 1. Go on the road and beat the Vikings, 2 and 1. Beat the Bears on the road, 3 and 1. That means you finish the season 11 and 6.

So you need to get to 11 and 6. If you get to 11 and 6, that means you would have beaten the Bears, presumably. and you will have the tiebreaker over the bears. Thus, you get in, in this instance that I've brought up here with Rams 13 and 4, Seattle 13 and 4, one will win the division, one will win the wild card. I don't know. I didn't do the math. In this instance, again, not all of this is going to happen.

San Francisco goes 12 and 5, they're going to get in in this instance. Chicago goes 11 and 6. They finish behind the Packers who finished 12, 4, and 1, and then you've got 11 and 6. So I think 11 and 6 is going to be the number. I think that's the number we're looking at here, is 11 and 6 is the number we need to get to there. Thank you. So if we get to 11 and 6 and get the win there,

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