The Josh Innes Show - NBA Playoff Predictions

Episode Date: April 18, 2025

I know that some of you don't care...but I've got series predictions for the first round of the NBA playoffs. Also, and this won't help you after today, I've got a bet in the Grizzlies/Mavs game that I feel really, really good about. It's very strange for me to not hate the Rockets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All righty. So I know a lot of you are not basketball people that listen to this. Actually, I don't know that. I don't know if you're basketball people or not. I know that a lot of vocal people who would listen to this might not be, and I know a lot of you aren't, and that's fine. I enjoy watching NBA games. I enjoy watching the Grizzlies, as we've talked about before.

That's our team. And tonight, Friday night, the Grizzlies play the Dallas Mavericks. Look, if you're betting betting if you're on the old DraftKings app and you're able to bet honestly I would take the money line for the Mavericks tonight this is the play-in game so the Grizzlies already lost the first play-in game winner of this game is the eighth seed in the west and would have to face the Thunder and whoever that will be will just get their dicks knocked off in that series but here's what I would do if I were you if you have the ability to bet and let me check the the spread in this game first last time I saw it was six it was Grizzlies minus six it is still

Grizzlies minus six I'm not going to bet it because I don't want to root against the Grizzlies who are playing at home they don't know if John Morant is going to play he's probably going to play I would say even though he sprained his ankle really bad in the last game so who knows he's questionable maybe he'll play maybe he won't I don't know but the Grizzlies are just a disaster and they give up a ton of threes every game like it's just it's bizarre that they're a six-point favorite wonder if the three-pointers in this game are available right now. No, they're not. But I'm looking at DraftKings right now,

which of course you can do the DraftKings pick six as well if you would like to have some fun doing that wherever you might be listening. Please go ahead. And use the code INNES when you sign up. I-N-N-E-S. That'll make me look good and you'll get some bonuses in there. So use the code INNES if you sign up for the pick six.

But anyway, so I'm looking at DraftKings, and the Grizzlies are a six-point favorite. I get that the Mavericks, the whole Luka thing happened, and I get all that, okay? But the Grizzlies aren't very good, and they've been a disaster for the last two or so months. They were the two seed in the West not that long ago. Now they're fighting to be the eighth seed in their second play-in game. Anthony Davis might mangle these dudes. You're going to get Anthony Davis going up against Zach Eadie, and if you watch Zach Eadie play last game, the dude has hands of stone.

Now he can rebound. He had 15, 16 rebounds last game, but that's because he wasn't going up against Anthony Davis. I think Anthony Davis is going to school this cat tonight, flat out school him. And even when the other guys have been there against Anthony Davis, Davis just crushes the Grizzlies. I would not be shocked. And if I were not a Grizzlies fan, I would take the Mavericks spread, certainly. And I would strongly consider taking the Mavericks money line. Like, this is a ridiculous spread. Unless Vegas knows something we don't know,

I truly believe the Grizzlies are going to get pecker slapped tonight. Just, I think they will not win this game. I don't believe it. I don't think they're going to have a real home court advantage. Yesterday, one of their star players, Jaron Jackson Jr., allegedly, bought 250 pairs of tickets to give away to the game, so 500 tickets, and they had people lined up for the tickets outside. But what that tells me is they're having a hard time selling tickets

because people aren't into it. So the venue's not going to be all that jacked up and ready for the game. You got a team that's been beat up all year, decimated by injuries. I mean, they've lost key contributors off the bench. They've lost a starter jaw. Who knows if he's going to play? And even if he does play, is he, you know, how close to really good will he be with a bum wheel? I think tonight you're looking at maverick's money line now you might be listening to this two days from now and go josh you were a total dipshit or josh you're a genius but i will tell you this jilly who is a gifted sports gambler prop bets and other shit she's very smart she just doesn't have confidence in herself and that bothers me like jilly could be like these chicks that are

all over the internet that have like a billion followers that pick games and shit and pick spreads and pick, you know, all the shit. She doesn't do it. She doesn't really have that belief in herself, which really upsets me because she's really good at the shit. And I try to tell her you're really good at picking these things. But she's like, I don't want to go on there. Then I'm wrong. I'm like like everybody's wrong about this shit the most that that's what being on sports radio is you make big strong takes and sometimes you're fucking wrong and a lot of times you're wrong that's just part of the game then when you're right you dick swing that's just the way it works but i think even she thinks the mavericks are gonna win so take that for what it is if dude if the if the if the grizzlies can't get out and run against these dudes and the Mavericks are able to muck it up a little bit and they're able to bang down low and slow down the game, the Mavericks are going to win this game. Because if you're trying to feed the ball inside to Zach Eady,

my problem with Zach Eady, he can rebound. He's a big kind of clumsy doofus, right? Dude cannot catch the ball when it's thrown to him, and it's a disaster and when he does catch it he's so slow and deliberate and everything he does they just whack it out of his hand so I think the Mavericks are winning tonight and I feel like it's a gift to get six points in that game and then there's also the East game which is the Heat and the Hawks the Heat are only a one point favorite in that game and I get that the Hawks can score a shit ton of points,

but I would parlay this bad boy today, and I would go Heat money line, and I would go Mavericks money line. That's plus 500 for the Mavericks and the Heat, the two road teams, to win. Take that for what it is. If you want it, use it. If you don't, don't.

If nothing else, go build yourself a pick six here on the DraftKings app. Let's play some commercials commercials and we shall return. All right. If you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you got to check out pick six from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings pick six posterizes the competition, including prize picks.

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series so you can take well first of all let's look at a couple of the futures so let's see team to win the nba finals the oklahoma city thunder are the favorite plus 165 the celtics are plus 190 i it's so strange i I look around the NBA and it's a weird era where there isn't a clear-cut, dominant type of team, right? Yes, Oklahoma City has run through the regular season. I don't believe Oklahoma City is going to win the finals. Because at the end of it, I'm still looking at dudes who are stars, and yes, Shea is a star.

If you said, Josh, you had to put money on a team right now. You had to. There's a gun to your head. If that team doesn't win, you'll live. But if you don't make a pick, you're going to get shot in the face. Whatever. I would probably take the Celtics again. They shoot a fuck ton of threes.

They hit a fuck ton of threes. And when those threes are going down, they're tough to beat. Now you look at Oklahoma City, they score like a buck 25 a night and you'll be watching Oklahoma city. And these guys are going to be like, you know, they'll be kind of muttering along. They got like 75 points midway through the third quarter with four minutes going to third. Then they end up with one 30. That's just kind of what these dudes do. Like they can, when it turns on, it turns on. They played a game against the Grizzlies a couple of weeks ago. That was like a one point game with, I don't know, six, seven, eight minutes to go in the game. And before you know it, they're up 22 on the Grizzlies. It's just

what these dudes do. But you look around, like, do I truly believe that the Cavaliers are going to win the finals? I don't, even though they're the best team in the East this year, I don't believe they're going to win it. Do I believe the Thunder are going to win it? No. When I look around, like maybe I'm falling for the Luca LeBron trap, but the Lakers at plus 1,400? You want a little guy that maybe if you don't watch the league a bunch you don't know about?

Go look at that team and look at Austin Reeves, a little white dude from Oklahoma, right? A little country, right? Austin Reeves, who looks dude from Oklahoma, right? I call him little country, right? Austin Reeves, who looks like Cameron from Ferris Bueller. Austin Reeves, I used to hate this guy, despise him. I'm just like, he's the white guy out there that just looks goofy. Austin Reeves is a legit fucking hooper. Dude can go out on any given night, score 25, hit six threes, five rebounds, five assists, two steals, get a block. The dude is a legit fucking Hooper. Now, I don't know if you put him on a team where he's the best player, if that would be the case. He's obviously got

LeBron out there. He's got Luka out there. That helps him. This dude is a Hooper. So you've got Reeves, you've got LeBron, and you've got Luka. Plus 1,400 for that team ain't that bad. There is decent, that's not decent, that's good value. Warriors plus 1,600, I don't buy it. The Warriors should have, could have, would have lost the last game to the fucking Grizzlies. The Grizzlies missed huge opportunities and the refs missed a call with seven seconds to go in the game. The NBA has admitted this in the last two-minute report,

that the Grizzlies should have had the ball down by one with seven seconds to go. Instead, they called it off of the Grizzlies. The Warriors get the ball. Grizzlies have to foul three-point game with five seconds to go, and the Grizzlies can't get the ball inbounds. They give the ball back. It's over. Grizzlies could have, should have, would have had a chance to win that. Grizzlies were down 20 in that game and came back to take the lead.

I don't buy the Warriors. You can tell me all about this shit. The Warriors are not winning. The Warriors, well, shit, the Warriors are going to lose in the first fucking round. They're going to lose to the Rockets. Although the Rockets haven't been there before, but I hope to fucking hell the Rockets do. What a turn for me. I used to hate the Rockets. Rockets used to hate me. Now, this current iteration of the Rockets front office and shit has no fucking clue who I am, and that's fine.

But back in the day when I was at constant war with these guys, hated the front office, hated the star players, which is a shitty situation. I liked Kevin McHale and I liked Mike D'Antoni. But outside of that, I hated everything about the organization. Now I find myself liking them and wanting them to win. I need to look at different series. Okay. Those exist too. So we'll look at those in a second, but, um, dude, the Clippers are plus 2,500. Like there's good value. If you believe now this is to win the NBA finals. I don't know. I got to look to see the conferences and see who is and those will be more likely up after you see which teams you know make it out of the play-in tonight but those teams aren't going to factor in anyway but um you got

the Clippers plus 2,500 Nuggets are plus 4,000 I don't think they're going to do it the Knicks are plus 2,800 they're not Timberwolves plus 6,500. They're not. Bucks plus 7,000. Dude, the Rockets are plus 8,000. I don't think they're going to win that, but I think they could if they find the shooting. The problem you find with the Rockets is they're not a great three-point perimeter shooting team. You're going to face a team like Golden State.

Golden State can unload on you at a given time. Now it's feast or famine if the threes aren't going down, they're in trouble. But Steph's going to give you at least five a night. Pod's going to hit some. They're going to get looks at three. Everybody on the squad's going to shoot them. So if you can't match them in that category, you're going to be in trouble. But I'm rooting for the Rockets to win that series uh let's see here but if you had to say Josh take a legitimate one to win I probably would go with Boston but I'd also look at the Lakers and the Clippers I don't believe a team with James Harden on it is going to win the finals but I'll tell you this you talk about a turn of events James Harden who I used to despise

now I watch him and I kind of like his game like you'll still get those moments where he kind of hardens it and does the bullshit and gets fouled but you could argue that Harden's having the best year of his life right now and he's won MVPs but like you watch Harden play now and he's playing a good brand of basketball Clippers are they could surprise people in there too mind you the Clippers had to beat the Warriors last game of the season on the road to stay out of the play-in and they did that was an overtime game but I'd say my best long shot is either going to be the Lakers or the Clippers and I would take if you said Josh the team you legit think is going to win it all I would go

back to the Celtics again but health is a big part of that too. Jalen Brown's been battling injuries there too. Okay, conference finalists. Okay, conference winner. You can take, let's see, in the West, you can get the Lakers for plus 600 just to make it to the finals. You get the Clippers for plus 1,000.

Again, this Warriors thing is fascinating to me. The Warriors are not good. They were in the fucking play-in, and I get they've played much better basketball since I got Jimmy Butler. The Warriors are not good. Fuck the Warriors. They're not good. Rockets, beat these schmucks.

Please, I'm begging you, beat them. Let's see. Conference finalists. Let's see. In the West, Oklahoma City versus the Lakers is plus 240. Thunder versus the, where's the Thunder versus the Clippers? That's one that I think would have some good value on it. Let's see.

Oklahoma City Thunder. Where are you at? That's not even up there. That doesn't make any sense. Either way. Yes. So there's some of those. Let's look at the series that are starting this weekend.

Let's build a parlay with series winners. Bucks and Pacers. I'm taking the pacers to win that series they're minus 165 clippers and nuggets i'm taking the clippers i just don't think there's enough for denver and they don't have a coach uh i i'm taking the clippers they're both minus 110 so you throw them in there nicks and pistons i think the pistons are going to give them hell but i'll take the nicks lakers and timberwolberwolves. I will take the Lakers. Basically, the Timberwolves are the type of team that if you can get Anthony Edwards balling, they're okay. And when he's balling, they can have nights where they hit 22, 23 threes as a team. They can do that. But if they're not doing

that, they're not going to win that series. I'm going to take Lakers. I'm going to take Celtics. And I'm going to take the Rockets to beat the Warriors. So if you took those six, those are the only six series winners who are available, that parlays and becomes plus 1,400. That's not bad. Fuck, I hope the Rockets win. Things I never thought I'd say. If anything, I used to sit around and just constantly hope the Rockets would lose. It brought me joy. Now I want them to beat the Warriors. I don't mind the Rockets. I'm okay with them and I really hate the Warriors. So that's where we are. Got that playoff starting, got hockey playoffs starting. I don't know a ton about hockey to sit here and tell you, take this team, take this team. I will say this. One of the hottest teams in hockey is still currently the St. Louis Blues.

They got they got a little softer in the last couple games, dominated the Utah Hockey Club to get into the to secure their playoff spot the other night. At one point, they had a 12 game winning streak. And there's a lot of shit that kind of lines up with what they did when they won the cup in 2019. Still have Jordan Benningtonton and if that dude's making if he's keeping the puck out of the net they can beat anyone let me see what the playoff series props are they are the underdog against the Jets in that series I would again this is blind absolutely blind here because I truly don't know a ton about these teams in hockey and I have to tell you but I would take Blues Aalanche over the stars, hurricanes over the devils, maple leaves over the senators, golden Knights over the wild capitals over the Canadians

Oilers over the Kings. And I would, I would not knowing anything about them. My first thought was to take Tampa over Florida, but again, totally blind. It's like Scott's picks from his ass. I'm blind on this. If all eight of those series played out that way, that's plus 6,500. Take that for what it is, but honest to God, I don't know enough about that, so I couldn't tell you. Anyway, more to come.