The Josh Innes Show - NCAA Tourney

Episode Date: March 18, 2025

I wish I got as excited about March Madness as I did when I was a kid. For whatever reason, the tournament just doesn't really do anything for me anymore. I guess that's part of getting older. I was reading a story about how the SEC is going to have a let down in the tourney...well, they have 14 teams in the dance...some of them will lose. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Admittedly, I don't follow college basketball really at all. I just don't. When I was younger, I did. I used to love LSU basketball when I was in high school, and I used to love Mizzou basketball when I was in middle school. I was just into those things, so I followed them and I knew them. Part of it's because a lot of the star players were still playing in college basketball, and they were big names.

I mean, dude, when I was into Mizzou, they played Dwayne Wade in the NCAA tournament. When I was into LSU, Tyrus Thomas and Big Baby were on the team. They were both NBA draft picks. One of them, I think Big Baby was an early second round pick and Tyrus was the number two or three pick overall. And in that tournament, you want to hear about a fucking tournament? Dig on this, kids. In the NCAA tournament in 2006, LSU went to the Final Four. It was the year that George Mason, UCLA. It was George Mason, LSU, UCLA, and I can't remember who the other team was. It was whoever beat George Mason and went to the national championship.

I don't remember, but I know that it was George Mason and LSU, and LSU played UCLA, and UCLA beat them by like 14. LSU didn't do much, but LSU had two dudes, actually three NBA players on that team because Garrett Temple, many of you have probably heard of him because he probably played for whatever team you root for because the dudes played for like 15 NBA teams in his career. And I believe he's still in the league, which is truly the upset of the universe. When you watched him in college, he was fine, but like dude's gone on to have a lengthy NBA career. I couldn't tell you what team he plays for now, maybe like the Nets or somebody like that, but like Garrett Temple. So three NBA dudes were on that team one of them was a top five top three pick um then you had in that same tournament the teams at LSU beat first one was Iona and it was like okay whatever they beat Iona I couldn't tell anybody that played for a Iona then they played A&M who had A.C. Law the fourth who never went on to become anything but he was a

big college player then they go to the Sweet 16 and they play Duke. That Duke team had J.J. Redick and I think Sheldon was on that team too. Then they go to the Elite Eight and they beat a Texas team that I believe had Kevin Durant. I know I had Kevin Durant and I believe also had LaMarcus Aldridge so like you were seeing players like that in the NCAA tournament that was also that was Florida Florida had to been the other team in the national championship because Florida won the title in 06 and 07 so Florida had to be the other team that was in the national title that year so Florida had Joe Kim Noah who was an NBA player they had Al Horford who is still an NBA player, like 18 years. That's

20 years ago. Al Horford was playing for Florida. And there's one other person. Then they had some other guys that had decent NBA careers. But my point is, they had ballers. There were NBA level ballers that went on to have great NBA careers. I just don't care about it as much. And I don't even care about the tournament as much as I used to. The NCAA tournament's actually what got me into gambling. I think at an early age, we would be in middle school and our basketball coach, PE coach, Coach Schultz, Doug, had us filling out brackets. He goes, you guys want to fill out a bracket? If you put in a dollar, your winner gets a candy bar. I don't remember if you had to put a dollar in.

It does seem kind of fucked up now if you think about it. Like basically the dude, if that's how it went down, I don't think, I don't remember. I don't think we had to put money into the pool. But can you imagine being like 13-year-old kids, 12-year-old kids throwing a dollar into a gambling pool so you win a candy bar? Candy bar is a dollar. So if the winner gets a candy bar, that means my man was just pocketing the cash.

I don't remember if he took money or not, so I'm not going to accuse him of anything or not. I don't remember because everything kind of runs together. And it's 25 years ago. Who gives a shit? But it's still funny to think about that, that we were just sitting in there filling out tournament brackets and I remember the first bracket I ever filled out when I was 13 maybe 13 or 14 and um I mean I watched the tournament but I never filled out a bracket until that point and I remember that was a year that Florida lost to Butler I want to say in a first round game on like the last shot of the game because we would watch on Thursday and Fridays they would wheel the TVs in in in the gym and we would just watch March

Madness you know and I think Butler like that was the first year that Butler did Butler things I think the 2000 NCAA tournament and that would have been I would have been 13 that would have been the year that Michigan State won did Michigan State beat Indiana maybe with Mateen Cleaves in Indiana? But anyway, that's kind of where I started getting into the idea of gambling. I was like, this is kind of fun. And I would fill out a bracket every year and, hey, winner gets candy bar, whatever, you know, fun shit. And coach would keep like tabs on who would do what and what their points were. And that's kind of where I learned how to do it and I really got into it March Madness was a thing that I really invested

in and really gave a shit about and now it's kind of like yeah like maybe because I'm a degenerate gambler that's got like problems so just filling out a bracket and seeing if my team's win or lose doesn't do anything for me like I need to have something on it like a real DJ and so like let's continue this conversation after a couple of commercials, actually. All right. If you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you got to check out pick six from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings pick six posterizes the competition, including

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Half the SEC crop will lose in the first round. Now, if you don't know, if you don't follow it, the SEC, the football conference, has 14 teams out of 16. There are two teams in the league that didn't make it, South Carolina and LSU. If it's a year that 14 of your league teams go to the NCAA tournament, you should be relegated to Division II for not making it. And I think LSU turned down an NIT bid, mostly because I think you lose money playing in the NIT, so what's the point? A record amount of 14 SEC teams made the field, and they showed their strength against non-conference

foes, but the success doesn't carry over into March with no more than seven teams still standing on Saturday. So they believe that seven of the 14 teams are going to lose. But here's the thing, right? People love to talk about upsets in these NCAA tournaments, like, oh my God, the 12 is going to beat the five, and it's going to be a giant upset. And as a kid kid and maybe the numbers were different back then because maybe the teams were different and these were real upsets

like when you would watch a butler beat a florida maybe it was a legit upset i had no concept of point spreads back in 2000 when i was a kid so i don't know but the point spread gives you a much better idea of who the the what the matchups are and what real upsets are versus a 12 over a five. Like example, Memphis is a five seed and Memphis is playing Colorado State. So a 12 versus a five. In theory, Memphis should win that game, right? They should be favored. They're a two and a half point dog to Colorado State.

So when you see, oh my God, a 12 beats a five, it's not the same anymore. The upsets aren't the same because the game has changed completely. How has the game changed completely? Well, what we've learned is that a lot of these smaller schools keep dudes around for two, three, four years

and they become units and they become very good solid teams. And on a given day, they can hit 15 threes and beat you. Even if you have the number one pick in the draft even if Cooper Flagg is on your roster you could lose why could you lose because these dudes stay around year after year after year like even at places like you know UConn you have dudes that can stay around a couple years and you can win that way and they've won back-to-back titles but But you start looking around college basketball,

you look at Colorado State and you think, we're talking Memphis and Penny Hardaway, and they've got good players. They're going to go in there and they're going to roll Colorado State. No, Colorado State couldn't tell you one player that plays for them. But I know the point spread, and the point spread tells me that that's probably a team of dudes that have been together for a couple of years, and they can make a run. Win at least a game or two, they're the the favorites and that's kind of the difference in looking at

the NCAA tournament now versus when I was you know 15 years old 14 years old again like you look at the 13 over the four and you'd go I mean that's a long shot then you actually look at the number and you're like is it let's look at some of these I haven't looked at any of the point spreads for the tournament yet I saw that Memphis one in a story because I follow Memphis stuff. But like, all right, bold statement that there's going to be SEC teams that are going to lose in the first round. Texas is an underdog to Xavier. They play tomorrow in the first four.

So there's one underdog. Let's see how many SEC teams are favored. So Texas is not favored. Let's see. Tennessee is a heavy favorite Arkansas is an underdogs there's two underdogs A&M is a favorite Missouri is a favorite let's see I'm gonna guess it's probably I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say the seven SEC teams are underdogs we've seen two so far Mississippi State's a favorite BAM is a favorite uh let's see Florida's a favorite

Kentucky's a favorite uh so we've seen two underdogs so far that hit that's not all the games is it I haven't read all those have I maybe I have I maybe I'm missing some SEC schools here let's count again so Texas is an underdog So there's one underdog in the SEC. Let's see. Georgia is an underdog. I missed them. So there's two underdogs. Arkansas is an underdog.

There's three. Let's see. Mississippi State's not. Alabama's not. Vanderbilt's an underdog. There's four. Kentucky. Let's see. Oklahoma. I forgot they're in thedog. There's four. Kentucky, let's see.

Oklahoma, I forgot they're in the SEC. There's five. So five of the 14 schools are underdogs in this tournament. So, of course, there's a chance that the SEC is going to have a letdown. Like the headline read, SEC to have letdown. Well, yeah, when you have 14 fucking teams in the tournament, there's a possibility that some of them are going to lose. But they're still very well going to have have 14 fucking teams in the tournament there's a possibility that some of them are gonna lose but they're still very well gonna have seven or eight teams in advance so

i don't know it's weird to have that many teams from one conference in the tournament anyway like let's look at some of these matchups right so now some 14 versus three matchups are legit underdogs like montana is a 16 and a half point underdog to Wisconsin in a 14-3 that would be a legit upset but when you look at like uh McNeese I bet I wouldn't be shocked if McNeese beats Clemson couldn't tell you a fucking thing about Clemson but Will Wade's got those dudes playing he's about to take a job probably like North Carolina State somewhere like that but he's got him rolling they're a seven5-point dog. But like VCU and BYU, 11 versus a 6. Oh, God, can VCU upset them?

They're a 2.5-point underdog. Big deal. Let's see. Arkansas, 10 and a 7 against Kansas. They're a 4.5-point dog. Big deal. Yale's only a 6-point dog to Texas A&M and a 13-4. What's our close?

UC San Diego is a 2. a half point dog against Michigan. Michigan got real hot, won the conference tournament. Again, couldn't name a fucking player from the team. I know they got hot, won the conference tournament, and UC San Diego is only a two and a half point dog there. Let's see. Vanderbilt's a four and a half dog against St. Mary's and a 10 versus a seven. Another 12-5. Colorado State is now a four and a half dog against St. Mary's and a 10 versus a seven. Another 12, five Colorado state is a now a point and a half favorite against Memphis. These 12, five games are just set up for it. Uh, Liberty seven and a half point underdog against, uh, Oregon.

Let's see Marquette three and a half point favorite. And as a seven, what's the closest, uh, point spread wise. What's our closest like 14, 3.5-point favorite as a 7. What's the closest point spread-wise? What's our closest 14-3? Montana State is a 16.5-point dog and a 14-3. Let's see. Another 14-3. UNC Wilmington's 15.5-point underdog against Texas Tech. Lipscomb is a 14.5-point underdog against Iowa State as a 14-3. Our closest

one is Troy as an 11.5 against Kentucky in a 14-3. What's our closest? 15-2. Let's see. Bryant is a 17.5-point dog against Michigan State. I also love Michigan State because I saw some headline in one of the Michigan newspapers that I follow, the Detroit Free Press, I guess. I was following them on social media and it's like, Michigan State stops the doubters again or some shit. And I'm like, who doubts Tom Izzo ever? You could argue he's overrated. You could argue he gets blown too often. It's January, February, Izzo, April, May, June. Michigan State gets handjobs on the reg from the world. Tom Izzo gets handjobs from the reg on the world. How many national titles has Tom Izzo won? And granted, I don't think that that's the only way you judge success. Obviously, Tom Izzo is a good coach, but people blow Tom Izzo. And if you look at what Tom

Izzo has actually done in terms of winning championships, how many of them does he have? Two, maybe? I think he's got two. How many Final Fours have you been to recently? Has Butler been to as many Final Fours recently as Tom Izzo has? People just love to bang on, they love Tom Izzo. Let's see, Izzo's been to the Final Four in 2019, 15-10, 9-5-1, 2000, 1999. Again, I'm not trying to bang on the dude, but the idea, we love to create people talking shit or that people are underdogs that aren't underdogs

or people are doubted that aren't doubted. Again, I don't follow college basketball religiously, but Tom Izzo's one of the all-time great coaches, and Michigan State's an all-time great program. The idea that he's some sort of highly-doubted person that has to overcome this shit was the biggest crock of shit ever. But people love to spin those kind of things for the sake of stories. But there you go so god i wonder like i wish i can go back to being a kid and look at my brackets and see like the 14 threes and 15 twos if i picked any of those and like what the point spreads were and what they would have been had i just taken money lines as a kid if like 15 year old josh would

have taken a money line on one of these big upsets that you pulled you know i'd like to get a time machine a delorean and go back and see those things uh anyway all right more to come