The Josh Innes Show - NFL Best Win Total Bets

Episode Date: August 27, 2025

So Fanduel had "Futures Day" yesterday. I got in on some of the awesome futures bets. Lets take a look at some of the best bets to take for win totals. Damn, I love football. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Book direct and save at bestwestern.com. All right, friends. I love futures bets. I'm a big fan of these. And FanDuel did a really cool thing yesterday where they gave you different boosts for different prop bets and different futures prop bets to use. So I built a couple of parlays with these different boosts. And it was cool, right? And their futures day thing is over. But like, I put in some wacky shit. Like I put in one that was just lying stuff, right? So Jared Gough, 4,000 yards, Jameson Williams, 750 yards. Ammon Ra 1,000, Jemir Gibbs 1,000 rushing yards and the Lions to make the playoffs. That's like plus 900, like shit like that. That gives you something to watch for for the whole year. Like, I'm going to be watching a shitload of Lions games because I talk about the Lions on the radio now, right? So I'm going to be watching a lot of their games.

I took some different over under win totals, all overs, of course, because I just hate taking unders. Although I think there are a few potential unders in there that I think are easy cash. I'll tell you about those in a second as well. But first, let's play some commercials. And let's look at some of these NFL futures bets. I'm excited. We're only like, we're a little over a week away from the return of the NFL for the regular season. It's going to be great.

It's going to be wonderful. I can't wait. That would be next Thursday that we get the Cowboys and the Eagles. What? We kick off the season with that game. Come on. Let's look at some of these futures and we'll do that after these words. Ontario, the wait is over.

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The Defender Octa is taking on the Dakar rally The Ultimate Offroad Challenge Learn more at landrover.ca All right, let's see here So let's look at wind totals Let's start there actually Let me see Actually we got I mean we are all over the place with this stuff

This is wonderful Great job. Fan duel did an awesome job with this. Fan duel doing their futures day, like every three hours they gave you a new boost. Like, oh, here's a boost to use on any preseason player futures prop, like that kind of stuff. It was really cool the way they did that and it was fun yesterday. Let's look at some of these, though. Let's see. There's season leaders, passing props, rushing props. Let's see. Like, for instance, I'm trying to find, I lost my spot here for a second. trying to find the win totals, win totals. Here we go. Let's look at some of these teams and see what we think. There's a couple that stand out to me. First, to go back to last podcast talking about the Chiefs, you can get positive money on taking the Chiefs under 10 and a half wins. So if you think the Chiefs win fewer than 11 games, which their division is going to be tough because the Chargers, you forget the Chargers won like 11 games last year, and you forget that the Broncos were a very good team

with a first year quarterback, you would assume one of two things will happen with Bo Nix. You'll lose like, oh, they figured out who Bo Nix is now and the league will kind of figure him out or Bo Nix gets better in year two. And I don't foresee a quarterback getting worse in year two with Sean Payton.

And then you throw in the Raiders who may not be particularly good, but they're going to be well coached in Gino's at quarterback. The AFC West is a good division. And just because of that, like I don't think the Chiefs are running roughshot over this. Like, could you see a scenario where the chiefs only go three and three in the division? Certainly. There's three losses. Then you look at the rest of their schedule and you

go, can I find four more losses, right? Because you need the chiefs to go 10 and 7 in that schedule. So if you look at the chief's schedule, and again, it's kind of a fruitless endeavor to try to predict what's going to happen in games four months from now. But could they go three and three in the division? Absolutely. Could they lose to the Eagles in week two? Absolutely. Could they lose to the commanders in week but four? Absolutely. Could they lose to the bills the next week? Absolutely. There aren't too many games on the chief schedule where I go, oh, they're a lot to win that. The Titans, the Titans who may end up being the worst team in the league. I don't think they will be. I think the Saints may actually end up being worse. But like, could they beat the

Titans? Sure. That's the one game you look at on the schedule and go, okay, that should be a guaranteed win. Would you be shocked if the Chiefs in their season opener in Brazil lose to the chargers, fresh off of Travi and Tatee getting engaged. Do you think it's impossible for them to lose that? No. So I like the idea of taking a shot at the Chiefs overwin total, like over under 11. And technically it's, I guess, 10 and a half. Which means they have to win fewer than 11 games, which means they would have to lose seven. I think the Chiefs are finally due to have a year where you're like, oh, that was pretty pedestrian. You know, not a 15 win year. Like you forget they were a 15 win team last year. They had a lot of close calls. I mean, I can think of a couple off the top of

my head. Bengals game that they should have lost. The Raiders game that they should have lost, but time ran out on the Raiders. There are a couple of those type of situations where they very well could have been a four or five lost team last year. So them losing seven, I don't think is totally out of the question. I would take under 10 and a half wins, which means, okay, that means they'd have to win or at least lose seven games. I think there's a solid play there. Other teams that I find interesting, you can get plus money on the Saints winning fewer than five games. So the over underwin total is four. So they'd have to win a max of four games. But that's plus money as well, plus 105. Tell me what it is about the Saints that

makes you think they're going to win football games. Other than the fact that I think if you looked at their roster top to bottom on offense, it is better than the Titans. Like those are the two teams, them in the Browns probably, are teams that are going to fight to be the worst team in the league, right? The difference between the Saints and the Titans is that the Saints, talent-wise on offense, if you just looked at their talent, you'd go, okay, their talent is better than the Titans. I couldn't name a Titans receiver, and I know that Tony Pollard is their running back and that Cam Ward is their quarterback. Other than that, I couldn't tell you much about them.

Saints-wise, when their offensive line is healthy, it's still okay. They were bad in the preseason, but they could be okay. and you still have Chris Alave until he gets concussed. Shaheed can still be a deep threat. And Alvin Kamara, I think people overhype him still. He's been in the league damn near a decade now. Who knows how good Kamara actually still is.

But Spencer Rattler is going to be the quarterback. Talent-wise, though, top-to-bottom offensive. Oh, and Joanne Johnson, who's one of my favorite tight-ins in the league. I love Joanne Johnson. So now I'm talking myself into the Saints being over four and a half. But if you want to compare them to the other worst team in the league, Like you look at teams like the Titans. I couldn't tell you who's playing wide receiver for the Titans.

And that's kind of been the case for the last few years. Like, oh, DeAndre Hopkins was there. Is DeAndre Hopkins still there? I have no idea. But I would take the Saints under five wins. Even if the Saints overperform this year, they're probably a four-win team. So there's a good value in taking the Saints under four and a half wins. So four or fewer wins at plus 105 for the Saints.

What about our Titans here? The Titans, you can get the Titans at, dude, under six and a half wins at minus 140 isn't bad. You're having to eat a little bit there, but if you were, say, building the parlay of these teams, under six and a half wins, does anybody in the world believe that the Titans are going to win more than five or six games? Does anybody believe that the Titans are going to win more than two or three games? Rookie quarterback who looked like shit in the preseason. The division's not particularly good, right? The Texans are probably going to win that division.

I think the Jaguars are going to be a lot better this year. I think if you keep Trevor Lawrence healthy and you've got BTJ going deep, you've got running backs that are good. I think that the Jaguars have potential. They were one of the teams I took an overwin total for in a parlay. Like they could be an eight or nine win team. They could be a 10 win team. I have a bad feeling about the Texans.

Not that they won't make the playoffs. They may. Will they win the division? Possibly, probably. For whatever reason, I don't feel good about them. great about them going into last year, and then they were kind of ho-hum. But this year, I feel differently. I just don't feel very good about the Texans going into the year.

But I think taking under six wins, or under seven wins, rather, for the Titans at minus 140 is pretty solid value. I just don't see a universe where the Titans are going to shock the world. Like, shocking the world for the Titans might be four wins. So I would take under seven, so under six and a half wins for the Titans. Now, are there teams that we think exceed their number? The Buccaneers. The Buccaneers should easily win the division. I don't know.

I guess Atlanta's getting a little bit of hype, and you know that I like Michael Pinnock's because he handles penis jokes well, and I think he's going to throw it for 4,000 yards. But if I look at Tampa, you can get them at plus money for over nine and a half wins. Could you see a scenario where Tampa goes 6 and 0 in the division? Because I could. Carolina's not going to be very good. might they be better than they were sure maybe does anybody believe that bryce young is super great i don't

know but if you took over nine and a half wins for tampa that's plus money it's plus 100 exactly for them to win 10 games they could should would at worst go 5 and 1 in that division they should not lose a game to the saints assuming health they should not lose a game to the saints they should not lose a game to the panthers and you can say oh maybe they split with atlanta and Atlanta's getting a lot of hype, and you're kind of like, why? Like, there's no proof that Michael Pinnock's going to be good. He played well in a couple of games at the end of the year. No one knows if he's going to be good.

So let's say they go five and one. Let's say Tampa goes five and one on the division. You have to find five other wins on the Tampa schedule to get to that number, right? Let's take a look at the buck's schedule and tell me where you find games that we think they could win, lose, whatever. Okay? So they've got the Falcons to start the year. That's a toss-up. Texans, they could lose that. Jets, they are going to be at home against the Jets.

It's their home opener. They're going to beat the Jets at home. So there's one of those five wins we needed. The Eagles is tough. Going to Seattle is probably tough, but Seattle ain't what they used to be. I can see a scenario where they go up to Seattle a win. Buccaneers, Lions, I mean, the Patriots are one of their out-of-division games. They should beat the Patriots at home. Bills are tough. They could go to L.A. and beat the Rams. Nobody knows what Matt Stafford's going to be. Dude might be in a wheelchair by November 30th. Let's see. Dolphins, they can beat the dolphins in Miami. So, look, I don't think 10 is a long shot, but they're going to have to upset some people

to get there. But the value is there at plus 100 for the bucks to win more than nine games. And they're going to be the best team in that division. They should, I think, easily win that division, but we shall see. Some of the other ones, the over-under-win totals that are interesting. The Giants are an intriguing one because, as of now, Rusty Wilson's going to be the quarterback, but is there a universe where Jackson Dart ends up being the starting quarterback? Probably not, but if they start slow and the fans are clamoring for it and Dart was really good in the preseason, is there a world where they're like, fuck it, I got to find a way to win, I got to turn this thing around. I mean, Day Bowl is truly definition of hot seat.

He is the most likely guy to be fired first in the NFL this season. So if they start out slow, is it a world where they cut ties with Rusty real quick and go, Jackson figure this shit out, my job's on the line. Like, Daybowl is coaching for his job. I don't know where Daybull survives, because I don't think they're going to do well enough to survive, and you're not going to see progress with Jackson Dart enough more than likely to see that, oh, well, maybe Brian Daybowl is so good with Jackson Dart that we have to keep him around.

I don't think we're in that kind of universe with these guys right now. So I don't think we're getting there. So I think Daibble's gone no matter what. But the value is, if you took over five and a half. half wins with the Giants, that gets you to close to even money. Do you think the Giants can win six games? Remember, the Giants were a cluster fuck last year, but they got rusty and they have Jackson Dart. You're in one of the toughest divisions in football, like the Cowboys seemingly won't be as bad as they were a year ago, assuming Dax stays healthy, which is a big

assumption. Even if the Eagles take a step back, the Eagles are still a good football team, and Washington's very good. My issue at taking an over under like that for the Giants is, is the Giants could be a better team than they were a year ago, and they'd still have to find at least three or four wins inside the division to get to the rest. I guess to get six wins, though, if they could somehow split in the division or even win two games in the division, can they find four wins on their schedule? And let's take a look at the Giants' schedule. Could the Giants find, let's see,

could the Giants find like three or four wins outside of the division? so you look they got the chiefs that's probably not a win although i think the chiefs aren't going to be that great could they go to chicago and beat caleb with rusty wilson in november they could could they beat the giants at home i think the giants or the packers rather kind of overrated and i think that jordan love for all the betting they like to do on him i think he's overrated too could they beat the patriots in new england yeah could they beat the vikis the vikings are an interesting team because everybody's blowing this j j j mccarthy i don't know that the Vikings are any good.

Could the Giants beat the Raiders? Sure. I've already looked at so far at this schedule at three games. The Broncos, I think the Broncos are better than them. That's going to be a tough one to go on the road particularly and win. But you look at the rest of their schedule, there's probably three or four games. Three games at least that I look at as true toss-ups for them. If they could steal a couple of games in the division, they could maybe be a five-win team.

I probably wouldn't take the over five-and-a-half, though. Looking at that schedule, I don't see a universe where I go, okay, there's five. wins for the Giants, even with Rusty Wilson, Jackson Dart, whoever. Maybe it changes if Jackson Dart comes in. And I would take the Saints under win total. Like I'd take them under five. Because even if things go perfect for the Saints, I don't see a scenario where they're winning a lot of games. Their division's not great, but Tampa's pretty good. And I think Atlanta's going to be pretty good. The Saints will be lucky to win two games in the division. So then they'd have to go out and find three more wins and they're outside of that. And maybe

the Titans fall into that category of teams they could win. But other than that, I'm like, eh, I don't really see it. All right, more to come.