The Josh Innes Show - NFL Is Back!! Lets Pick Division Winners

Episode Date: September 4, 2025

I'm so excited! Let's take a look at the divisions and pick some winners. Are there any surprises? Will KC continue to dominate? Which teams will fall off? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

When you're with Amex Platinum, you get access to exclusive dining experiences and an annual travel credit. So the best tapas in town might be in a new town altogether. That's the powerful backing of Amex. Terms and conditions apply. Learn more at Amex.ca. All right, everybody. Good morning. A little bit late start. Again, not that it matters to you. Why would what time I start this thing matter to you, right? Like, it's 440 in the morning, but why would you care? You're listening to this whenever you're listening to this. But welcome in. It is all up in us. I am Josh. Hello. We have football tonight. NFL official football. I will say I will miss the preseason. I think we've had this discussion, but I I love betting on the preseason.

I love the passing yardage or receiving yardage prop bets that could be made during the preseason. So I guess I enjoy the preseason more than the average Joe because of the betting I do on the preseason. But none of that matters because tonight it is regular season. Tonight it is the Cowboys and the Eagles. Tonight we ride. All right. So let's play a couple commercials. We'll get into some of the predictions for the NFL season.

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Restrictions apply additional NFL Sunday ticket terms at YouTube.com slash go slash NFL Sunday ticket. terms limited time offer. All right. So, look, I'm not a huge predictions guy, although every week I tell you what prop bets I predict are going to hit and what games you think are going to win. So who cares? Get into the prediction business a little bit, right? As we look forward to the regular season, this is just, like, I know I've been saying this a lot lately and I never thought I'd become this person. But football season changes you.

May is not a fun time, right? Basketball, baseball. That's not a fun time. Hockey. That's not a fun time. It's a fine time. It passes the time. But September, October, November, December, January, February, at least early February, is life. Hashtag football is freaking life. And we get to spend the next, what, six months having some form of football happening. And then it goes. away, and we might as well be bears that hibernates. So enjoy it, embrace it. I was just talking about this the other day. You know, LSU has now completed one-twelfth of its schedule. It's a great win. But then, you know, next week coming up in a couple days, they play Lotech. You're talking about, you know, two-sixth of the schedule over, or two-twelths,

and one-sixth of the schedule is over. And I'm already missing it. I miss it, and it's not even gone yet. I feel like I'm living in the moment a little bit more with football now because of how much I've started to enjoy it. It's easy to get lost in it and kind of ignore it when you're in it and underappreciate it when you're in it. And then before you know it, it's late January and all that's left is the Super Bowl. And you're like, where did it go? Where did this beautiful game go?

Where did my Sundays of nonstop boozing and betting go? Well, they're still there, but they're just on, you know, the WNBA and baseball at that time. But where did my Saturdays of putting on my LSU gear and hoping I don't have to rip my flag off of the flagpole because I'm disgusted with the outcome of the game? Where did that go? Speaking of, I have an LSU license plate now on the car because I'm a real fucking dope. And I have an LSU license plate that says G-E-A-U-X on it. And it's not like it's a Michigan license plate that says go. It's one of those dumb personal vanity plates you buy online for 15 bucks.

so it's just purple and gold and it says go and it really makes it easy to find the car but I was convinced I was going to rip that bad boy off of there after week one because I figured we were going to get our asses kicked again but we didn't and we live but let's take a look at some of the predictions in the NFL let's get into the prediction business let's look at the division winners we'll start with the aFC east I see no reason to believe that anybody other than Buffalo is going to win this right is New England going to be competitive Probably not. I mean, you'd assume they'd be better with Mike Vrable. That's the thing. I don't think New England is any sort of threat. And I don't think New England is going to advance into the postseason or anything like that. But I could see a scenario where New England is more competitive. They'll play a schedule that's not as sexy as some of the other schedules, right? Because they're just not very good. So they'll play some lesser teams. And I think Mike Vrable can get them to beat some lesser teams. And is there a potential for the Patriots to be a seven or eight win team? Sure. Could they, maybe steal a game from someone they shouldn't possibly maybe sure but I don't think they're any sort of real threat I don't believe that the Jets are any sort of real threat they have a bunch of teams in this division that if they like stole a game from someone you wouldn't be shocked you'd be shocked if they made the postseason you'd be shocked if they came close to buffalo and nobody in that division is Miami remains an interesting one and Miami's interesting because if Tua stays healthy they should be an offense

that can advance the ball, can score points. Now, that's if Tua stays healthy. But what would you say is a better likelihood? What has a better chance of happening, right? Tua stays healthy or Tua suffers such a crippling, debilitating brain injury that when you watch him on the field, it makes you question whether or not football should even exist anymore. I'd say the latter, because that's what we see every year of Tua. We see a guy end up getting hurt, like the arm goes straight up, and he starts convulsing on the field.

Like, that's more likely to happen than Tua play 17 games, and they're a team that competes for the playoffs. Coach is probably going to get fired midseason. Tyreek is going to be a mental case midseason, and they're going to go nowhere. But again, they're talented enough, and if two is healthy where they could beat someone, they're not supposed to beat. But I don't think anybody is a true viable threat to Buffalo in that division at all, so Buffalo is going to win the AFC East. I think you're getting a lot of the same in the AFC North as well. It's interesting because in the AFC North, your quarterbacks are going to be Aaron Rogers at a well-run organization like Pittsburgh. You're going to have Joe Burrow, who is a guy that

I was reading a survey of NFL coaches and executives, Anonymous 31 of them. And Joe Burrow is like the third guy on the list of guys that you would take. If you could have any quarterback in the league to start your team. Joe Burrow is in the top three of those guys with Josh Allen and Pat Mahomes being one and two. And then Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow is a dude. Jamar Chase is a dude. The playmakers they have on offense, flat out dudes. Here's the problem with Cincinnati. They don't have an offensive line and they don't have any defense. They didn't do anything to remedy the defensive problem. And I don't think they did anything to remedy the offensive line problem if what we saw in the preseason is any sort of harbinger of things to come.

Like, I watched them, and I'm like, so you were supposed to do better at protecting your quarterback, yet Joe Burrow kept getting trotted out there for drive after drive in the preseason. I guess it was the game. I think they played Washington in the preseason. I might be wrong on that. And he's running for his life. And they kept him in, and then he would run for his life some more.

But then there'd be those moments where they'd put a drive together and bang, bang, bang. there's Jamar Chase for 20, there's a touchdown here, and they look like the Bengals offensively. They're probably staring down the barrel at another season where, like, they start out slow, and then they're trying to climb out of a hole, and by the end of the year, they're like eight and eight and eight, eight and eight with a week to go, and then they've got a win, and then another team has to lose. Like, that's what I see for Cincinnati.

So I think they have a shot to be a wildcard team, but I've, don't think they're going to win the division. I don't think even with Aaron Rogers. Aaron Rogers is going to be a fun one, though, because you don't know how cooked Aaron Rogers was in New York or if it was just the situation. Pittsburgh's at least a very well-run organization. As you know, they've had three coaches in a billion years. They're well-run. They're always going to win eight games. So the question is, if they're a team that can always win eight games, is Aaron Rogers good enough to get them to 10 and make them a real threat? Like, even when there are a threat, nobody views Pittsburgh as a threat.

They're just well-run, and they're kind of there, but Pittsburgh isn't a team that's going to scare anybody to the point that, like, oh, God, Pittsburgh's going to make a deep run. Does Aaron Rogers put them in a position to make a deep run? My initial instinct is to say no, but I think he's closer to cooked than it was closer to be in a jet situation, but the jets are a disaster, and Pittsburgh is an extremely well-run organization, one of the most well-run organizations on the planet. So is he good enough to get you from eight-win?

like from going 8, 9, 9, and 8 to maybe going to 10 and 7 or 11 and 6. Is he good enough for two swing wins like that? Maybe, but until we see, I'm still going to take Baltimore in there. Even though I don't feel Baltimore is going to win the Super Bowl. Spoiler alert, I never feel like Baltimore is going to win the Super Bowl, but I feel like they're going to run through and score a lot of touchdowns and the King is going to put up 20 rushing touchdowns or whatever he's going to do during the year. And Lamar is going to run around for his life all year

and put up a bunch of yards, and then the playoffs will come and they'll lose. AFC South, I'm going to take the Jaguars, and I might live to regret this. And maybe it's because we've gotten spoiled kind of with what the Texans are, or maybe we've just kind of grown kind of not numb, but just kind of accustomed to what they are. But I'm not sure that I buy the Texans this year. Last year I was kind of all in, and they were a letdown last year. Are they closer to what we saw last year?

they closer to what we saw two years ago. Jacksonville, I think I'm just kind of riding the consensus on Jacksonville, although I'm reading this story here, and four out of six people surveyed in the media feel like Houston's going to win that division. And I wouldn't be shocked if the Texans won. But for whatever reason, I'm feeling Jacksonville. I like their weapons. Trevor Lawrence doesn't suck.

C.J. Stroud, I think, needs to play considerably better than he did a year ago. I think I don't know It's a gut feeling thing And I know that gut feelings don't really equal much But from a gut feeling standpoint My gut feeling is Jacksonville AFC West It's weird because I don't want to take the chiefs

Because I believe the dynasty is over I believe that you got your You're tied in proposing to Taylor Swift In a staged proposal You got the documentary about the team and, like, it feels like it's over. Now, you still have Mahomes, and that's great. And you still, as long as you have Mahomes, you have a shot.

And I don't have the guts to take anybody else in the division. It's one of those, hey, take Kansas City until Kansas City proves they can't be Kansas City. But that division may be the deepest in the NFL in terms of, I mean, you can make an argument for the AFC North as well. But you can make a great argument that the AFC West is the deepest division in football in terms of teams that can just come out and beat you on a given week. we don't know if Denver was closer to what they were last year, if they're going to take a massive step back in the second year of Bo Nix and Sean Payton. We don't know. But L.A. will always be a team that can come out and could potentially, assuming health of Herbert

and assuming health of Ladd-McConkey, can be a team that can go out and win 10 games. And you got Harbaugh, so you have better head coach than you've had in the past. I understand Harbaugh has been there. But my point is, in those years that the charges were disappointment, you had other dude. Now you've got Harbaugh. and I think that could be a team that could win 10 or 11 games. I would not be shocked if the Chargers won the division. I wouldn't be charged.

If you gave me, honestly, if you gave me Chiefs or the field, I might take the field just because I don't buy Kansas City. But until that happens, I don't have the guts to go against Kansas City. So I think I'm taking Kansas City to win the division. The wild cards in no particular order are the three wild cards in the AFC. I'm going to go with Cincinnati. because I think Joe gets in, but winning the division, I don't think is going to happen, because Baltimore will probably win 12 games, and Cincinnati will be hovering around 9 or 10,

and they'll somehow get in. I'm going to get them in this year, despite the fact I told you all the reasons why not to take them for anything. Offensive line doesn't look like it got better. Defense doesn't look like it got better. I would circle their coach, Zach Taylor, as the guy who might get fired first this year. Before Mike McDaniel and all those guys, I would look at Zach Taylor and circle him. I'm taking the Chargers to make the playoffs, and I'm taking the Texans to make the playoffs in the AFC. Would I be shocked if Denver got in?

No. Would it be shocking if Pittsburgh got in? No. I could see Pittsburgh getting in, but I could also see Pittsburgh being a disaster that wins six games. Actually, I can't. It's weird with Pittsburgh. I can't see Pittsburgh being a six-win team. Like, Pittsburgh's either going to go 9 and 8, or they might go 10 and 7,

or they might go 8-9 and miss the playoffs. But, like, that's who they are. They live in that area, 8, 9, 10. That is where they live consistently. And I don't think they get worse with Aaron Rogers. But I don't have them making the postseason. All right, NFC side of things. The NFC East, the Eagles are going to win that.

I know that some people are kind of high on the commanders. I think the commanders caught people off guard last year. And I think reality comes back to them a little bit. Maybe they still make the playoffs. That division is competitive. You got them. the Cowboys. And if DAC is healthy, that's a team that, again, can win eight, nine, ten games in Dallas. The Eagles are the best team in the division clearly at this point. So you have a

competitive division where you've got three teams and then you've got the Giants. And look, and the Giants are presumably better at quarterback than they've been in the past. Maybe, kind of, possibly. Will Jackson Dart eventually see the field? That's my guy. So I don't know. I know that Russ Wilson ain't that good. I mean, we saw Russ Wilson had a couple of moments in Pittsburgh, but I have no reason to believe that Russ Wilson's going to roll into New York and change the world for them. I'd say if you put a gun to my head and said, Josh, what's more likely to happen? Russ Wilson leads the Giants to nine or ten wins, or Russ Wilson gets benched and Jackson Dart is in within the first half of the season, I would say the latter. But it's a competitive division, and I don't think it got worse with Russ Wilson.

It was dreadful with the Giants last year. I don't think it got worse. I don't know that it got exponentially better. But I would take the Eagles to win that division, best coach, maybe the best well-run organization, certainly in the NFL and maybe in all of sport. The NFC North, it's trendy to go against the lions and people got their dicks hard over the Packers. What has Jordan Love done?

Love done! What is Jordan Love done? Please, just enlighten me. Let me know what Jordan Love has done to get all of this hype. Dude gets hurt. Dude puts up garbage stats late in games. I like him. I like to bet him.

But I don't view Jordan Love as some guy that I circle. and go, hey guys, look out. Jordan loves here, and he's going to run over this thing. Now, I get the questions about the Lions. I lost both of their coordinators, including Ben Johnson, who is arguably one of the best play callers in the league. I get all of that. I don't even arguably. He is one of the best play callers in the league. And we're going to find out this year how big of a factor he was in the success of the Lions. But I'm not riding the Lions off. They're not going to be a 15-win team, but I think they're a playoff team. So I'll take them to win the North. I love Tampa to win the South. I'd like

The thing about Tampa is, or the South, is you can look at predictions and you can go every, every team except the Saints, somebody may predict them to win the division. It's just a shitty division. But I'm going to take Tampa because I like Baker. I think they're going to win 10 plus games. They may, I don't think they're going to go undefeated in the division, but if they go 5 and 1, I wouldn't be shocked by it. I'm taking Baker and the boys to win the South. And Westwise, assuming health of Matt Stafford, they added Devante. They still have Puka.

I like that team. I like Matt Stafford. Again, assuming health, which is a big assumption. I know a lot of people are back on the San Francisco train. I'm going to ride with the Rams to win that division. And then the wild cards, I'm going to go with Dallas, which, again, assuming health. If Dak stays healthy, they're probably an 8, 9, 10 win team and can probably get in. I'm going to go with the Falcons because I like Michael Pino's Jr.

so I think they're and good you play in a division where you're going to get four of your games are going to be against the saints and the Panthers are the Panthers going to be better than they've been sure the Saints are terrible so let's like could the Falcons go five and one in the division sure they I think both them and Tampa could go five and one in the division they can split against each other and beat the other two teams two times I can see a scenario where they're just two five win teams there's halfway basically half to where you need to be so I like the Falcons I like Michael Pinnock's. I told you he's my sleeper dude to throw for $4,000 this year, which is like plus $2.30. I liked him at the end of last year. I liked the way he handled the penis heckler. I'm going to go with the Falcons. And then my last wild card in the NFC, I get no particular order on these. I'm going to go with the bears.

I get that nobody, I'm looking at the predictions of six different dudes right now from USA Today. Nobody's got the bears making the playoffs. Like I see, oh, the Arizona Cardinals. I see Green Bay, I see the Vikings. This might be dumb, but you got Ben Johnson in Chicago. If they're going to get something out of Caleb, look, what did Ben Johnson do with Jared Gough? Nobody's writing Jared Gough down as one of the best players in the NFL. If you look at those lists of guys you'd start a team with, Jared Gough ain't going to be top three, top five, maybe not top seven.

He's a product of Ben Johnson. What's he going to do with Caleb? I don't know. You've got to have some sort of outrageous prediction pick, right? You've got to have something that stands out for the most part. Nothing sexy about the picks I've made. I think the Bears are going to make the playoffs. They're going to play a weaker schedule. Like I would imagine, you look at the Chicago schedule.

There's nothing about it that makes you go, oh, like this is tough. I mean, yeah, you have a tough division. You've got to play the Packers who are better than they were a week ago. You have to play the Lions, who to me are still the best team in the division until proven otherwise. A lot of people like the Vikings with J.J. McCarthy. I say, show me. I don't believe he's going to be any good. But you also get to face the Raiders, and you get to face the Saints, and you get to face the Giants, and you get to face the Browns.

So they're going to be four or five games on there that the Bears have a shot to win. Then you look in the division, if you can steal a couple of games in there, who knows? So I'm going to go out on a limb and say Bears to make the playoffs as well. So we're going to go, Buffalo, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Kansas City as the division winners in the AFC with Cincinnati, Chargers, Texans, the Wild Cards, in no particular order. Then in the NFC, we're going, birds, Detroit, Tampa, Rams, Bears, Falcons, Dallas as the wild cards there. Let's go.