The Josh Innes Show - NFL Mid Season Predictions

Episode Date: November 7, 2024

First off, I've been royally screwed by Fan Duel and I'm not happy about it. Second, I have some bold NFL predictions from ESPN. Let's break these down and see if we agree. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The following was recorded from inside an ice plunge. Ah! Woo! Okay. All right. When a Coors Light is cold enough, the mountains on the can turn blue. So the next time you want a cold lager, cold filter, cold package Coors Light, just wait until those glorious mountains on the can turn blue

it's easy to say that fast when you're freezing cold alright Jamokes so I'm annoyed today well last night I put in a couple of bets went over to Illinois put in a couple of bets on some games on FanDuel right so I bet on the Memphis Grizzlies to score 117 points.

They scored 131. That's a victory. Super. I did some doofus basketball parlay that didn't hit, wasn't even close. Cool, fine. I also made a bet on the college football game that was last night. Now, there are actually multiple college football games, but one of them took place or featured an Illinois team,

and we cannot bet on Illinois teams because Illinois teams in Illinois do not allow you to bet on them it's stupid but it wasn't available so I made some dumb action bet that was the two quarterbacks in the game to combine for 400 yards those are the kind of bets I tell you I make all the time like tonight I don't know what the number is on Joe Burrow and Lamar to combine for 500, but I'm going to take it if it's good value because I enjoy that. I like the combo bets like that. It is a bet created by FanDuel. It's not like I go in and say Joe Burrow 250 and Lamar 250. It's 500 combined. I usually bet those. So last night, the two quarterbacks were plus 126. So you bet

$100 to win 126 if they combine for 400 yards. Now, I probably shouldn't have made the bet anyway because I knew nothing about them, but it was, hey, it's the Tuesday football game and it'll give me something to pay attention to. So what happens is one quarterback from Ohio, it was Ohio versus Kent State. Again, I'm a degenerate. Why the fuck are we betting Ohio and Kent State? The night before, I bet on the quarterback from Bowling Green, only because he used to be the quarterback at Mizzou, and he's pretty good, but he missed by like 20 yards.

Anyway, so I forgot the two guys' names even, but I took them to combine for 400 yards. The first quarterback is doing well. He threw for, I think, somewhere somewhere around 200 the other guy never played they started another quarterback so I start looking at the stats I'm like where is this Tommy Ulatowski that was supposed to be the quarterback at Kent State not only did he not start he never fucking played they changed the quarterback and FanDuel never offered that guy they offered the combination of statistics with this other quarterback who never played. So I reach out to FanDuel. I'm like, listen, I've basically given up my life savings gambling on this site.

I would like my hundred dollars back, please. I mean, you should void this bet. Now, normally when I see people on the internet and they're whining about bets being voided, well, part of that's just part of the game. Like a guy's going to get hurt in the first quarter of a football game sometimes, and you're not going to get your money back. That's life. You deal with it, right? That's how these things go. In this case, if a dude never plays, it should void the bet.

It's wrong. Like basically, you scammed me at this point. Did you not know like the second we saw that this dude didn't start you should have voided the fucking bet so i reach out last night and they're like yeah we're gonna work to get this resolved we'll send you an email when it's resolved i did that twice last night while the game was still going on right then this morning i see that i still haven't been reimbursed so i reach out and the you know first you have to talk to a robot,

and then you have to go through a bunch of hoops to talk to a real person. Then you have to wait in a long-ass line to talk to the real person. So then I'm like, look, I don't care. I'm not trying to scam you here, but it's wrong if you put a bet out that was these two gentlemen that combined for 400 yards, and one of those gentlemen did not play. They're like, well, the bet's already been settled and we can't go back retroactively and void it so uh we can't give you your stake back i'm like

then what can you do nothing it's like you can't give me a bonus bet you can't like go i'm on here all fucking day i never reach out to you guys and ask you for anything i'm not some sort of deadbeat loser when it comes to shit although that's debatable but like i never ask you for shit why don't you at least give me a bonus bet on this they're like sorry we can't do that we can't give a bonus bet for a bet that's already settled but you know you can cash out on these games at live like no you can't you can't cash out on this type of bet you dumb asshole they're like well look i'm done with this conversation sir is there anything i can do and i'm like this is bullshit i'm not betting with you fuckers anymore then they had the audacity to send me a like a like a survey like how did we do

how cheryl was her name cheryl and uh they're like uh how did ch do? One out of five stars. One. How likely are you to recommend FanDuel? One. Because I couldn't give zero. And then I got to leave comments and I'm like, you guys are garbage. I'm on here all the time. I've blown so much cash on here. And you offer a bet for a player that didn't even play.

And then you're not going to reimburse me on this? fucking suck i'm going to draft kings now the ball's in your court fan duel you want to lose me fine i'm a high roller like if this were in a real casino they'd be comping my ass goddamn rooms and shit that's how much of a degenerate i am that's the reason i'm 25 grand in debt mostly being fired and gambling all the time so you want to come to me and tell me that I can't have $100 in free bets after your bet was fucked? I don't appreciate that, FanDuel. Now that said, generally speaking, FanDuel is the only place that I can find those bets that I like to take, like tonight. Maybe that's how I defeat them. Instead of going away and saying I'm taking out the money that's in my account here and going to DraftKings,

which I think is an inferior site for the type of things I like to do. Maybe the key in this, maybe the way to defeat them is to just bend them over and take their money. And maybe it starts tonight with Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, two teams that I enjoy betting, two teams that are going to throw for a fuck ton of yards tonight. Maybe this is where it starts. I got to get disciplined because a lot of times I just drive to Illinois and I walk you know I try to get my 10,000 steps in because I'm fit as a fucking fiddle so I go walk around downtown Columbia Illinois or some different parks and I'll get 10 15,000 steps in a day and I'll bet on Ukrainian table tennis mostly hockey like foreign hockey or soccer during the day just to kind of pass the time because I have nothing else going on because I'm a real fucking degenerate okay but I go out and I do this maybe I settle

down I get myself disciplined and what I do is I bet on shit that I really feel confident about not just shit like empty netters at the end of hockey games which are a crapshoot I like doing it but it's a crapshoot so maybe what what I do is that's how I defeat FanDuel because I've been up big on FanDuel before, but I just fuck things up. I've got systems, the gistums, they work. So maybe that's what I have to do to this FanDuel. Let me check my email. Let's see if FanDuel has decided to email me and say, Mr. Ennis, we're sorry that we butt fucked you with our stupidity. Here's a free bet. I'm going to assume they didn't. I hope they read my comment that I left for them.

I was damn close to carrying this shit and going to social media and saying, hey, FanDuel, what gives on you putting a player up for a prop that wasn't even available? The guy didn't play. You scumbag. And it'd be one thing if it was just a normal prop bet. Like, that's a risk you're going to take there. But if you're going to offer specifically a combination bet of two players that one player doesn't play then that's fucked let's see if I got any emails here nope FanDuel

has not emailed me back you you dirty sons of bitches that's what you are let me go to my actual FanDuel account and see if you sent me a message nope you haven't you should be sending me messages saying we're sorry you should be apologizing to my ass is what you should be doing because i was treated wrong by cheryl and the other people that came before cheryl last night well sir uh we can't do this because the game's already over i tried to tell you when the game was fucking happening i know you got your own problems. You're probably listening to this going, wow, what a fucking lunatic. No, I believe in what is fair and just. It is wrong of you to offer a play that has two dudes in it. And those two dudes have to combine for a certain number of yards. And one of those dudes never actually plays, especially when it's a quarterback.

It's a risk when you take a running back, right? Because a running back, like they rotate, like one running back doesn't take every snap the quarterback takes every snap so you've bent me over but i'm going to return the favor again i could tuck my tail and run and say i'm taking my shit to draft kings right but what i will do is i'm going to take your money i'm going to come in there this could be some oceans 11 type shit i'm coming after you it's going fucking down fan duel mono and mono let's fucking go fan duel and it starts tonight it starts with the bangles and the ravens let's see let's take a look and see what it would cost and i know when you guys are going to listen to this. Hopefully today. Otherwise, it'll sound really ridiculous tomorrow. But let me see here.

Let me see what that bet is tonight on the Ravens and Bengals. Let's take a look here. NFL. What is the combination of 500 passing yards between these two jamokes? Let's go. Passing props. Passing specials. Minus 135 to combine for 500.

Not a ton of value on that that what is it to go to 550 550 is plus 175 600 is plus 410 might be going that way my man Lamar has been slinging the reason why the Ravens have a shot to win the Super Bowl is because Lamar is legitimately slinging the fucking hog he's not just some running back that throws this dude's out there putting up numbers man I find myself rooting for him. And it's a big game for Joe. And you know who's going to have a big game tonight? Jamar Chase.

Because Jamar Chase had a couple of weak games in a row. Jamar going deep against the secondary of the Ravens, which isn't very good. So let's fucking go. All right. If you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you got to check out Pick 6 from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings Pick 6 posterizes the competition, including prize picks. It's a very simple concept. Hit all your picks and score higher minimum payouts on Pick 6, plus even more cash if you outscore the competition pick six is available in most states including Missouri California Texas Georgia and more and I absolutely love it

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a fan duel tonight we get serious i say this as i'm sitting here in my underwear the second i'm done recording this i'm gonna find myself over in illinois betting on the same goddamn Russian fucking hockey. Anyway, speaking of the NFL, I was reading a story on ESPN. It says mid-season predictions. I have not read this yet, but I'm going to scroll through this and see how I feel about these ESPN NFL mid-season predictions. So the first category is playoff races. How will the playoff races play out? Opinion. The Baltimore Ravens will make the Super Bowl with improved pass defense. The Ravens defense is fifth worst in the league against the pass, and they've seen some of the highest drop back rates accordingly. That's not a good formula, but I do think those numbers,

I don't think those numbers will hold. Look, I think the Ravens can make the Super Bowl. Right now, I think they're legitimately, if you said, Josh, three teams that you truly believe can make the Super Bowl. Ravens, Chiefs, Lions. And when I posted that the other day, I got McDougal going, what about Philadelphia? You bastards tell me that everything about your team sucks. Then you get mad when I don't think they're going to the Super Bowl?

And I don't. I don't think they're going to the Super Bowl. What about the Texans? No, the Texans ain't going to the Super Bowl either they have no offensive line they're horrible up front and CJ Stroud's gonna end up hurt they might get their dicks knocked off this weekend against the Lions we shall see I'm worried about that one big time now I do think healthy Jordan Love means the Packers have a shot but he's never healthy. But as far as legit teams that I think can win the Super Bowl today, Ravens, Chiefs, Lions. Now that could change. 49ers could wake up, get healthy, and maybe they'd be good. Maybe. But obviously,

maybe Washington continues to win, but I don't believe a rookie quarterback with the commanders is going to go out and win this thing. So I don't believe they're legit contenders. I don't believe a rookie quarterback with the commanders is going to go out and win this thing. So I don't believe they're legit contenders. I don't believe anybody in the NFC West is a legit contender. I believe the Packers when healthy or good, the lions, I don't buy the Vikings. Like it's so bizarre, but it's hard to sit in a situation and go, I think Sam Darnold could go to the Superbowl. Maybe it's. Not maybe. It certainly is bias because he's played well. But there's no way I can allow myself to accept the idea that Sam Darnold might be going to the Super Bowl. So I would decline that. So you just look around. It might sound crazy to say these are the teams you think could win the Super Bowl. But look around and tell me

who else there are. I mean, no one's winning the Super Bowl out of the AFC South. Only one team is probably going to make the playoffs out of the AFC South. AFC East, again, you want to look at Aaron Rodgers and say he's got a shot. I don't. And the Bills never beat the Chiefs. As we've discussed before about Josh Allen, he's a loser when it comes to the playoffs. Not a bad person, just loser by the true definition of not winning. So Josh Allen would be a guy I wouldn't circle and say I believe they could win the Super Bowl.

So I'm looking at the AFC East and saying no to the Jets, no to the Bills. I don't think they can win it. Dolphins, no, obviously. Look at the AFC West, the Chiefs. There are a couple teams that could make the playoffs. I think you got a shot with Denver, although I think they're about to come crashing down once they start playing better teams. We saw that last week against the Chiefs. There are a couple teams that could make the playoffs. I think you got a shot with Denver, although I think they're about to come crashing down once they start playing better teams. We saw that last week against the Ravens.

And then I think the Chargers are cute and they're fun. They're not going to win the Super Bowl, but I think they're a playoff team, certainly potentially. I don't buy the Steelers up in the north. I like Rusty, but no, I don't buy that. I think the Bengals could get hot and get in in but i don't think they're

a super bowl contender and i think the ravens are you just look around football and you're like who are the who are they who are the teams that can win the super bowl as it stands today november 7th i believe those teams are ravens chiefs lions not really a bold tag now that could change we shall see uh let's see the kansas city chiefs will be the number one seed not a bold take. Now that could change. We shall see. Let's see. The Kansas City Chiefs will be the number one seed. Not a bold takeaway there for how the playoff races pan out. They're undefeated right now and no one in the AFC is particularly close. So I don't think the Chiefs are all that good. I don't want to put it that way. I think the Chiefs are good. They're not some sort of juggernaut, but they keep finding ways and they've got the quarterback, they got the coach. So saying

that they're going to be the number one seed isn't a bold proclamation. The Miami Dolphins will claim an AFC wildcard spot. They are 2-6. The one thing about the AFC, though, is if you get hot and rattle off a couple of games, you can be back in the race. I mean, who are the teams you're trying to catch? When you have two wins, you're trying to catch teams like the Colts. The Colts are probably not going to hang on for much right you start looking at teams like the chargers

and teams that you're trying to chase the broncos i think the broncos are going to fall off i don't think that's a ridiculous take to say that the dolphins could be a wild card i like with the weapons they have if tua stays healthy like they damn near beat Buffalo this week in Buffalo I'm not against that I can get down with that the idea of the Dolphins making the playoffs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will earn an NFC wild card spot it's possible their schedule's manageable you look around the NFC I mean every team's a winning team currently over in the west but who knows how long those teams will hold on they They're not going to win the division. The division's going to go to Atlanta at this point with MVP candidate Kirkland Cousins. No other team in that division

has a chance at the playoffs. NFC North, I think, is where you're going to get kind of stuck, because in the NFC North, Green Bay's a playoff team. Minnesota's a playoff team. Lions are a playoff team. I think that might be where you run into a little bit of an issue there for the Bucs. Actually, I do not believe the Bucs are going to be a wildcard team because I don't believe the Bucs are very good. They put up a bunch of passing yards and I enjoy that. I don't think the Bucs are very good. So I disagree with that.

They're not going to be a wildcard team. The Steelers will beat out the Bengals for an AFC wildcard spot. Well, that's not exactly a bold proclamation. They currently have a pretty solid head start on the Bengals and Rusty's playing well. So that's not a huge proclamation. Do I think that the Bengals could make the playoffs? Yes. But I mean, to say like, is that really bold? Like, oh, look out. The Steelers are going to make the playoffs. No fucking shit. They're playing great. Let's see who will win the awards Lamar Jackson will win his uh third MVP it's wild to me that Lamar keeps winning MVPs yet his team never really gets close to anything like if you're truly looking for the real definition of an MVP then give it to to my man Mahomes every year because

he's the truly he is the best quarterback in the league. But that's not what the MVP actually is. But this person, Dan Graziano, says Lamar will win his third MVP, his second consecutive. Probably. And look, I think he's better this year than he has been in the past. The guy can actually throw it. His completion percentage is like 70%. It's bonkers. So I'm not against that. This person, Lindsey Theory, says Jared Goff will win his first MVP. I do not believe that will be the case. Let's see. Xavier McKinney will win Defensive Player of the Year with Green Bay.

That's from Matt Bowen. Trey Hendrickson will win Defensive Player of the Year. My God, I can't tell you how much I hated when Trey Hendrickson left the Saints. But he was a victim of the Saints being a team that kicks the can down the road cap-wise, and they just didn't have enough money to keep him. But my God, watching him play in those years when the Saints bounced back again, 17, 18, 19. I forgot what year his last year was, but watching him play, he was just a fucking freak, man. And I love watching this dude play.

And now he's been in Cincinnati for a handful of years now. But fuck, I love that guy. Watching him play, the Saints had some just dynamic defensive playmakers. And now I'm watching the way it's eroded. And Marshawn Lattimore, although he's never healthy, but Marshawn Lattimore is gone now. And Trey Hendrickson left a couple years ago. and Cam Jordan's not the player he used to be, and they had to get rid of some other guys in their secondary because of money reasons. What's his name that was in the 2017 draft class?

They have none of those guys left. It's really sad, and I'd be all for Trey Hendrickson winning defensive player of the year. Derrick Henry, offensive player of the year. If he continues on the trend, he's on, no doubt. You could also argue for comeback player of the year for him as well. Jim Harbaugh, coach of the year. I'm trying to think of anybody else. Now, again, Jim Harbaugh would actually have to continue winning, so we'll see.

But, I mean, you can make an argument for Atlanta. You can make an argument. Like, you want to look at coaches who've been able to do stuff with real... Look, you could argue Sean Payton. As much as I hate Sean Payton, Sean Payton's got a rookie quarterback and they're currently over 500. Now, in fairness, that could all collapse and they could end up with six wins on the year. I mean, their schedule gets a lot tougher. So again, it's not Panthers. It's not Saints anymore. I mean, you're starting to face some better teams. You have to face the Chiefs twice.

I think they have at least one against the Chargers still, so their schedule's not going to be easy down the stretch, so at least there's more losable games, but I would consider Peyton for that spot. I don't know that I'm, I mean, to me, Harbaugh coach of the year, I feel like they're a better candidate. I mean, look at what they're doing in Arizona.

What if Arizona wins eight or nine games? That should be one that's in consideration. Dude, you want to really look at someone who deserves some credit? Look at our boy in L.A., homeboy the Rams coach. I mean, look at what they're doing. Like, granted, they're a 500 team right now, but they're kind of getting hot. They're kind of getting healthy. I mean, Sean McVay's done some shit there. So I think they're good candidates getting hot they're kind of getting healthy i mean they've sean mcveigh's

done some shit there so i think they're good candidates for that this year actually um dude people are gonna disagree no no i was about to say uh about to say our boy in philly but i'm not gonna uh just going down the list like you look at it division for division like damico's not gonna win it in in houston because he still has his quarterback. Teams that lose their quarterback and win games, I think coaches are probably going to get more credit. Dude, you could argue for Minnesota. I mean, look, you lose the guy who's supposed to be your rookie quarterback

and you're winning a shit ton of games with Sam Darnold? I mean, that's something. So, I mean, i think there are better guys than harbaugh i mean what about washington geez uh the commanders will sweep awards of mvp coach of the year and executive of the year that's from mike tannenbaum who's a former gm i don't think they're going to get the mvp because j going to win the MVP but he should be considered um that's actually not bad that that's a if there were a bet on that and it would have good value I would just consider taking that bet uh let's see what season trend could continue down the stretch the Lions will end the season with another streak of opponents losing their following

game okay fine what could happen in the NFC West the Cardinals will win the division says Field Yates that's not a bold proclamation that the West is great because there are a bunch of average teams nobody's great but like if you told me hey the the Seahawks could win the division well when Gino's right and he's not turning the ball over look they should have won the game last week against the Rams they threw it away through in interception in the end zone. So they had multiple chances to win that. I love that division. Can I tell you how much I love watching Matt Stafford play quarterback? I just fucking love the guy. He just has a coolness about it and the way he slings it, man. He always seems kind of beat up, but he's still out there slinging. I love Matt Stafford more than his wife does apparently I love Matt Stafford not a big

Kyler guy I don't think Arizona's gonna hang on in that way I like Gino but he turns the ball over too much I think the Rams are gonna end up winning that division now I don't know what the health status is of Puka Nakua he's been a big addition now that he's come back but you got Cooper cut back you've got one of the great scores at running running back. I like the Rams. I think the Rams are actually going to win that division. I disagree with you, Field Yates. And Dan Orlovsky agrees with me that the Los Angeles Rams are going to win. That's his bold take on the NFC West. The San Francisco 49ers will miss the playoffs, says Matt Miller. I agree with that at this point. They just look terrible. And you've had Christian McCaffrey out for most of the year. Brandon Ayuk's

been hurt in a no-show, so you've been dealing with injuries what records will be broken this season Jared Goff will break Drew Brees single season record for completion percentage that's believable because this motherfucker's out there every game going 17 of 18 will Jared Goff have a game where he goes like 10 of 36. Like it just, it's not possible for this guy. Like they run so efficiently on offense. It's spectacular. Like it's like Drew Brees. What made Drew so good,

and I think completion percentage is an overrated statistic because like Drew used to throw a shit ton of passes behind the line of scrimmage and screens and everything. So that can be fudged and you can manipulate that to be something greater than it actually is. But when you really think about it, this dude's completing 83% of his passes. There'll be weeks where he'll go like 17 straight passes and not throw it in completion. That's dumb.

But they're smart about the way they do things. They are selective when they move the ball down the field. They get the ball to their playmakers in space and let them do things. They're very smart about the chances they take. They throw a lot down the field. They get the ball to their playmakers in space and let them do things. They're very smart about the chances they take. They throw a lot of screen passes. They get their running backs involved in the passing game. Each one's going to get three, four catches a game most days, or at least they'll combine for six, seven catches from the running back on many days.

So they do outstanding stuff. I don't think golf is special in any way, but what they're doing is spectacular. So I could see that so the record is um let's see he leads the NFL with 74.9 completion percentage Breeze's number was 74.4 in 2018 and 2018 Drew Breeze was like arm is on the verge of falling off can't get the ball down the field uh like he his arm was not as strong as it was so he threw a lot of dump offs you get a lot of screen passes to kamara that's how you get to 75 percent percent percent completion is you don't take a ton of chances and the chances you take are calculated and are very precise so i could yeah i think that's gonna happen i mean he's already ahead of him and what has like what is the worst game golf has had this year in terms of completion percentage?

Like, there are going to be games where they can't just rely on the dink and the dunk. Like a couple of games ago where they, who did they beat the shit out of? With like 80 passing yards. I forgot who they beat. But it was one of those games where you got like a kick. Was it the Titans? I think it was the Titans. So the Titans were 14-14 with them at one point. And then it would just be one big running play touchdown, fumble

or interception touchdown, kick returns. They had to do nothing offensively to score 50 points. There are going to be games. There's going to have to be. Keep in mind, they also played a shit ton of games inside. What's going to happen in November, December when you have to start going outside a little bit in some of these places and deal with the elements. So we'll see. That's an interesting one. That'd be a fun bet to take on one of these sites if it were available. Which team will have the number one pick?

The Raiders will lose out and have the top pick. That is certainly a believable one. I wish it would be the Saints, but for whatever reason, the Saints have decided that they're not into the idea of losing every game to get a quarterback. They all think they're going to go out and win now, and somehow they're going to fuck my world up and win five, six, seven games and not have the pick. It's going to piss me off. Just go lose. I know you can't tell players to lose. That's not how this works. You can't say, hey, go out there and try to lose, but go out there and try to lose. Don't win. There,

I've solved it. If you're the Saints, don't win. Just lose, and we can get a quarterback maybe, and we'll see, and we can really get the rebuild going. It'll be great. We shall see. All right, more to come.