The Josh Innes Show - NFL Prop Til' You Drop!

Episode Date: September 7, 2024

Hello Friends! Jilly and I love making props for NFL Games. I enjoy it more than betting sides. I've got a new segment called "Prop Til' You Drop". I'll tell you my favorite prop bet from every NFL game this weekend. I have the most excellent insights. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The following was recorded from inside an ice plunge. Ah! Woo! Okay. All right. When a Coors Light is cold enough, the mountains on the can turn blue. So the next time you want a cold lager, cold filter, cold package Coors Light, just wait until those glorious mountains on the can turn blue.

It's easy to say that fast when you're freezing cold. All right, it's Saturday morning, about to head to Indianapolis, where tonight I'll be sitting around at bars watching college football, making live bets, because that's what I love to do. In Missouri, I can't do that, but I can sit in Indianapolis, sit in Indiana and make live bets, which is my favorite thing to do, my favorite way to make cash when gambling.

Now, speaking of, I'll give you a little something here today, something I'm calling Prop Till You Drop, because I needed something with a clever, fun name. Prop Till You Drop. It's easy to remember. It rhymes. I am a big prop bet guy love prop bets like last night i had a couple of different prop bets going mostly passing yardage overs uh the main one of

course being that of jordan love who got his passing yardage total on the third to last play of the game and then got his knee destroyed on the second to last play of the game so i hit the over on that 30 some odd yard pass from his own like 10 yard line that got me the over so thank you Jordan Love hopefully you live because I have you in my 4,000 yard passers parlay that has like seven dudes in it if you don't live 4,000 yards seems unlikely with that 260 you threw for yesterday you're well on your way to a 4,000-yard season, and that thing could win all sorts of cash. So for my own needs, please come back and throw for more yards.

I also had an anytime touchdown last night from Saquon Barkley, which would have hit three times because this son of a bitch scored three touchdowns, had an epic game, threw double birds up to the Giantsants he's got to be glad to be out of there free at last free at last he's got to be feeling good now I love prop bets I don't really like betting the sides in games like I don't like I can and I do it but it didn't really do anything for me now sometimes I like to make money line bets but I just don't like the spread It's more fun to look at games and find props that I find interesting. So what is prop to your drop? All right. Prop to your drop is I'm going to look at every game coming up on Sunday and I'm going to give you one prop bet that I like from each of those games. Now I may not necessarily love it, but since I'm looking

at each game, I have to take at least one prop bet from each of these games on Sunday. I'm not going to look at Monday yet. I might do that on Monday. But I've got a long list of games here, and I will give you one prop bet at least from every one of these, and I'll try to give you at least a good enough reason for why I'm doing it. All right.

We start with the Titans at the Bears. I actually like Caleb Williams. I think he's going to be good. I didn't when he was at USC. I thought he was kind of flaky. The nail polish, the man purses. But I bet a lot on the Bears during preseason. Let me give you kind of a breakdown of how the preseason passing yards worked.

You couldn't take individuals, but on FanDuel, they allowed you to take Chicago Bears over 200 receiving yards or over 175 receiving yards and that was my way of doing passing props and they hit every week for me with their list of dudes with Austin Reed and Brett Rippon and Caleb Williams. So I like the Bears. Now, you got a young quarterback. It is a different world being in the preseason versus the regular season.

Titans are not good, but you're at home. I'm not going to go with a Caleb Williams play in this. I'm actually going to go with a Cole Komet play. His receiving yards are over 22 and a half, and I think he hit that into double figures last year. Well, when he played, he was a dude that could make plays for you. I feel a young quarterback, he's got tons of weapons with Roma, Dunzang, go down the list of these guys, and they're going to make their plays too.

DJ Moore, they're all going to make their plays. But you have a safety blanket of a veteran. I think he's in his fifth year tied in in Cole Komet. 22 and a half seems like a gettable number. A couple of dump offs make a guy miss. Two, three catches, 10 yards each, eight yards each, and you're right there. So we're taking Cole Komet over 22 and a half yards. And I'm not totally hating the rushing total uh for Williams as well I think it

was like 18 but I'm not going to take that when my favorite in this game for prop to you drop is over 22 and a half next Steelers at Falcons we're going to keep it simple in this one I don't like either one of these teams really uh I don't even know who's going to be playing quarterback for the Steelers you might hear that that Russ but but Russ might be hurt. But there's good value here for Nosh at plus 175 to score a touchdown. So I'm going to keep it simple. Running back, he can also catch out of the backfield. Plus 175 for an anytime touchdown score. I like it.

I'm going to take Najee Harris plus 175 anytime. Tud, Jags at Dolphins. If I'm being real with you, I'll probably be looking at that for passing yards too because it feels like a game that two is going to sling and that Trevor Lawrence is going to sling. But you had a guy last year that led the league in touchdowns with 18. That's Raheem Mostert. Why would he stop now?

Plus 100. I'm getting even money for a touchdown for a guy that led the league last year? Come on. Especially early in the year before you get to the cold weather where the Dolphins falter. Plus 100 at home. Raheem Mostert, Tud, taking that. Pats at Bengals.

Just shoot me in the face with this one. I'm holding my nose on this, but we don't know if Jamar Chase is going to play the Bengals should win. I'm taking Joey B and LSU play here. I'm taking Joe burrow over one and a half touchdown passes. Why? I don't know. I needed to play something.

It's property and drop. I got to play at least something. It's minus one 30. It's not a ton of value. You're going to be having to bet 130 to win 100, but I'm going to take over one and a half passing touchdowns for Joe. Texans at Colts. Now, this is one that Jilly and I have talked about a lot.

Look at last night when you had a guy that was happy to get the hell out of a bad situation with Saquon Barkley. He goes out three touchdowns, plus all-purpose yards epic game for him right Stefan Diggs is happy to be out of Buffalo now two things could happen here he could ball out or he could disappear again because the Texans have a ton of weapons they're loaded tight in they're good wide receiver they're loaded that running back they added Joe Mixon so there's a possibility he just completely disappears or he could ball out and I think that CJ Stroud's a smart dude and he wants to get Stefan going early I think the coaches want to get Stefan going early because

they saw the way things melted down in Buffalo so I am taking Stefan Diggs over 58 and a half receiving yards and if you want to get frisky he's plus 190 to score a touchdown that's epic value for a guy who's a legit number one NFL receiver so I'm taking over to uh over 58 and a half for Stefan Diggs receiving yards and that touchdown at plus 190 doesn't suck Panthers at Saints I'm a Saints guy we're to suck, but with the addition of Clint Kubiak, I think the offense could be better. And look, they didn't score a lot of tuds early in the season last year, but they were able to move the ball between the 20s.

That wasn't their issue. Can they punch it in? I'm actually going to go with a guy that some of you maybe haven't heard ever, don't think a ton of. Because the Saints, when you used to think of the Saints, you think of Michael Thomas and a bunch of those guys uh just go down the list Jimmy Graham big time wide receiver tight end pass catchers there's a little fella named Rashid Shahid and last year he would make two or three explosive plays a game and he's the kind of guy that a play action deep ball could

find him for 50 yards he's also a guy that can catch one that's in the air for five yards, and he could turn it into 20. His over is 36.5 receiving yards. We're taking Rashid Shahid over 36.5 receiving yards. And maybe Kamara gets into the end zone as well. I think they're going to win that game, but the Saints, they're not good. All right, here we go. Arizona at the Bills. The Bills are going to be winning this game. It's on the road

for Arizona. These are the kind of games that I like taking the opposing quarterback to throw for yards because I believe they're going to have the ball late, losing. Defense sags a little bit, lets you have the middle, and you can pick up. That's the beauty of passing yardage overs, man. If you take a team that's losing in a game and there's two minutes to go and they're down 10 but they still think they're in it, defense will give them all the free yards they want. It's free money, baby. I'm taking Kyler over 227.5 in that.

That's a low total. Raiders at Chargers. This one I actually like a lot. I'm a big Minshew guy. And last year with Indy, I thought he was pretty good. Now he's the starter in Vegas. There isn't a legit guy they drafted backing him up. It's Aiden O'Connell.

So it's Gardner, Minshew, or Bust. I think the Chargers are better. But there's a possibility. Could Vegas go in and win that game? Possibly. I mean, I don't see why they couldn't. But I'm going to go with Gardner Minshew over 218 and a half, because this is the kind of game where potentially

you could be looking at late game dump offs, 10 yards out of bounds. They give you 15 over the middle and you could pick up 40, 50, 60 yards in the last drive of the game in a meaningless drive. I'm going Gardner Minshew over 218 and a half in this one. He still has some decent weapons. I mean, you still have Devontae Adams who can make plays for you. I like that one with Minshew. Denver at Seattle, I'm going with Bo Nix. And I'm going with Bo Nix to throw an interception.

Rookie quarterback, he's in one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, which still gets loud, still gets rowdy. They're not the same team they were five, six, seven years ago, but it gets loud. And you look good in preseason, but regular season, on the road, solid team, a pick's going to happen. Now, there's no value in that. It's minus 155. I also think Bo Nix is going to throw for over his total, which is 200. That's a very low NFL total. So 200 and a half, I would take Bo Nix over in that, and I would also take him to throw an interception. I only saw that at DraftKings, but minus 155 isn't great value, but I think that's going to happen. Dallas at Cleveland. Look, Cowboys are a dog in this game, but they still have weapons offensively now the question

well the one main weapon is cd lamp they're gonna be in a dog fight with the browns and i think dac's gonna have to throw a lot and 249 and a half is a low total for dac so i would take over two fifth 49 and a half dac and another interesting one is zeke elliott is back and zeke is plus 210 to score a touchdown, and he's kind of their dude down there. So Zeke scoring a touchdown at plus 210 does not suck. So I would certainly consider that. I might actually like that more than the Dak yards,

but I'm taking Dak over 249.5. Washington at Tampa, Jaden Daniels, my guy, Heisman, dual threat, going to save the franchise in Washington for the Commander skins, right? Jaden Daniels, anytime touchdown score. Now, that has to be a run-in. I'm not talking passing here. I'm talking a rushing touchdown. It's very possible they get down there inside the 10.

They run a passing play. It busts. He runs it in. It's kind of that Lamar effect. Now, they're not going to use him like Lamar. He's not a guy they're just going to bulldoze up the middle for plays like that. But there are very possible scenarios I can see

where Jaden Daniels is able to get outside of the pocket and make something happen. And at plus 210, it's worth the shot. I think Jaden's going to ball out, and I'm going to take him to score a touchdown in that one. And I think there's going to be a lot of passing yards in the Sunday night game with the Rams and the Lions.

So sometimes on FanDuel, you can find bets where it's the two quarterbacks to combine for 500, 550. If you can find that, do that. I think this game's going to be a sling fest. And you've got, again, once again, again you got stafford going back to detroit you got that great offense and playmakers in detroit i think there's going to be a ton of offense in that game and that game's just going to be fun so pick whichever quarterback you want to pick but i think stafford assuming health because you know he's a guy that's fragile so who knows but that's going to be a situation where i think they're down late in the game, too,

and you're going to pick up a lot of garbage yards there. All right, anyway, prop till you drop. We'll do it every weekend. Appreciate you guys. Go Texans. Me and Jilly are going to be in Indianapolis this weekend.