The Josh Innes Show - Prop Til You Drop Divisional Round

Episode Date: January 18, 2025

We just finished watching the Grizzlies. We are drinking wine and we have some thoughts on this weekends playoff games. But first, big ups to the nice dudes who helped us get our car out of this bullshit snow. Who will win the battle between Lamar and Josh? Is the snow gonna kill the Rams? Jilly gives her favorite prop bets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All righty, everybody. It's about, it's actually exactly midnight o'clock, Friday into Saturday. Football playoffs start in a mere 15 and a half or so hours. Drinking some wine, just watched some basketball, and here we are. Hello, Jilly. Well, you say just watch some basketball. You're like, let's do a podcast after the Grizzlies game. I'm like, great. We'll have some wine. We'll do a pod. And then we went down the Hawk Harrelson-Bob Uecker wormhole. And now it's midnight. We're almost at a one. You're like, now let's do a podcast.

Well, listen, the Bob Uecker-Hawk Harrelson wormhole was a very worthy wormhole. We must pay our respects to Mr. Bob Euchre. That's Mr. Baseball. And then, you know, Hawk Harrelson, who's our favorite. So that shit happens. I don't know what to tell you. But it was entertaining, and I enjoyed it. And today was actually the best day we've had in St. Louis in about two weeks.

About exactly two weeks, I guess. Almost two weeks since the snow first came some shit melted by the way we got to give some love to some gentlemen here so basically what happened is our we got our our main car out like right after the snow like two days after it snowed we were able to get it out of the driveway yes it was in the driveway. That's the key. The new car, the Equinox. Our old car that we've had for 12 years was parked on the street and then of course the snow plows

come through. It blows all the snow against the car so the car's kind of trapped. Didn't go out and shovel it for days and days and days to the point that the snow was very hard, like ice. It was a mountain. That was a dumb idea on our part first of all we should have parked it in the driveway when the snow came yes but we did not and then we didn't

shovel it because i guess i don't know you're like oh it'll melt it never melted no now it melted a little bit today but we're out there with shovels trying to get this other car out because we're like all right this is our older car this one we try to put the miles on and shit so we're trying to shovel like we were working on getting the car out. Like, it's a pain in the ass. We've got two shitty shovels. We're trying to get this, like, I mean, just mountains of snow off from around this car. Seemingly, it's a very unlikely scenario that we're going to get the car out.

But we're working on it. We're kind of making moves, sweating our balls off. And then a miracle happens. Literally. And I feel like I have very little faith in the world, as you know. making moves sweating our balls off and then a miracle happens literally and i and i feel not like i i have very little faith in the world as you know like most people suck but a guy pulls up in a giant truck and uh and he pulls over he goes you guys need some help getting out and i go i mean yeah but it's kind of a pain in the ass man he goes i i think i can get you out i'm like i

don't know it's a big like a pickup but he's like i can pain in the ass, man. He goes, I think I can get you out. I'm like, I don't know. It's a big pickup. But he's like, I can try to pull you out. We're like, oh, I mean, if you can, we can try it. And he goes, I'm a tow truck driver. I can get you out. And I go, well, fuck. So he gets out some chains and shit, hooks it up to his trailer hitch.

He literally had all the chains just in the back of his truck. So he takes the chain, puts that around the hitch of the trailer. And then he puts it under the front of his truck so he takes the chain puts that around the hitch of the trailer and then he puts it under the front of the car then this nice hispanic man comes up from like a tree cut like a tree removal company or some shit he's got a nice shovel he starts digging out some of the fucking snow they get the car set up they say i get you you're you just get in the car put the car in neutral and i'm gonna pull the car out and i I'm like, all right, let's go. And sure as shit, those motherfuckers got the snow out. And when I tell you that it was snowed in,

like feet on either side, like front back. You couldn't even open the door on the driver's side. We luckily, it melted some on the passenger side enough for me to like squeeze in. Like this thing was like over the tires. It was covered. This thing was not getting out of the spot probably until April.

But there goes our hero. And that hero was this nice guy and this nice Hispanic guy. They both stopped in different trucks. I get in the car. They pull the car out. I'm planning on giving this guy a couple bucks or something. I was going to be like, hey, what's your Venmo, bro? I'll send you 20 bucks.

Before I could even do that, he pulls the car out. He gives me a thumbs up. I say, yeah, I'm out. And he just rides off into the sunset, never to be seen or heard from again. He was gone. And then I was like on the porch. I was trying to like shovel the driveway so the car wouldn't get stuck again. And I was going to be like, hey, hold on.

Like, let me see. Like, can we get you something? Like, what do you need? Like money, beer? What do you want? We've got more beer than money. So if you prefer beer, we'll give it to you he was gone like he didn't even stop

I was like oh okay sir that restored my faith in people for a day so thank you random gentleman I don't know your name but you stopped and pulled us out with the help of the other man from the tree service who came out and got us out of that spot we must have just looked so pathetic

okay yes we looked pathetic I'm not dismissing that but it's also a situation where like like there are people who are friendly people and are gonna help you out like i don't think we looked like woefully pathetic we did because like i watched multiple neighbors like dig their cows cars out like the first two days and like no one stopped and helped them but here we are like two weeks later trying to like chuck away at this ice and this guy's like hold on

and then the tree guy goes I have a real shovel we had two shitty plastic shovels you might as well have just been picking up sand and putting it in a fucking bucket with these shovels but like yes we were more pathetic than the people who were shoveling when the snow was still soft but I would not say that we were more pathetic than the people who were shoveling when the snow was still soft

but i would not say that we were among the most pathetic people ever i think we were pretty pretty pathetic with this one well you know what thank that guy for stopping because he pulled the car out and we appreciate it so faith has been restored in humanity for at least a day and uh and thank you pal because that doesn't happen all that often, because most of the time, people fucking suck, but thank you, random guy, don't know your name, I guarantee you, there's a 0% chance you hear this, same for the nice Hispanic man, both of whom just disappeared, they pulled the car out, and by the time I could even try to roll down the window and be like, hello, good sir, he said, nope, maybe it was Jesus, you know, I always think these things, you know, they say, like, you should always be nice to people like homeless people

and shit. Cause what if it's Jesus? What if like, or it's an angel or some shit, but like, what if it is Jesus? And that guy standing there with the sign that's like, we'll work for food. What if that son of a bitch is Jesus? So you always got to be nice to people. What if that was Jesus? And he wanted to see how I would react. And maybe Jesus was going to send me to heaven or hell based on whether or not, I don't know if that's his power does Jesus have that power does God have that power who has the power to damn you to hell Saint Peter has that power okay well whomever okay but they can pass a note to this Saint Peter right so like I wonder if when they pulled me out they were waiting to see if I would even offer them money and that was

going to be like the determining factor about whether or not I go to heaven or hell it won't be all the other bad shit I've done and all the porn I've watched and dumb shit I've done in my life it'll be whether or not I offered money to this nice rando this stranger this guy we assume is a stranger but really it's Jesus like what if I don't fucking know I don't know but it could have been an angel could have been Jesus either way this person was a savior to us and pulled the fucking car out of this because we'd still be out there trying to dig that son of a bitch out. So thank you, random stranger who might have been Jesus. And thank you, other random apostle that helped us out as well. Or maybe the Hispanic guy was Jesus. Maybe it was a swerve. Maybe it was a total swerve and the white guy wasn't Jesus. Maybe the Hispanic guy was Jesus. By the way,

who the fuck knows what Jesus is anyway? I'm not religious. So anyway, thank you, friend. Now, we're going to take a look at some of the ball games this week and some of the props. I got an email from a guy that asked me to give him an idea for some prop bets in Vegas this weekend. I'll tell you about that email. We'll look at some prop bets. Coming up in just one second. All right, if you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you've got to check out Pick 6 from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings Pick 6 posterizes the competition, including prize picks.

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age and eligibility restrictions vary by jurisdiction pick six not available everywhere including new york and ontario void where prohibited one per new customer bonus award it is non-withdrawable pick six credits that expire in 14 days limited time offer see terms at pick six dot draft kings dot com slash promos all right so yeah this guy sent me sent me an email earlier this week and i responded to him today it's like hey I'm going to Vegas. And I was wondering if you could, you know, maybe help me out with some prop bets. I listened to the show in Houston. I didn't listen in Philadelphia cause I don't give a shit about Philadelphia,

but I listened when you were back at 97 five and I thought it was the best show you've ever done. Thanks. Appreciate it. And, um, he's like, so can you give me some like prop bet ideas? Cause I'm in Vegas and I'd like to build a parlay. Well, well and i and i had to ask someone who's more of an expert on this than i am i talked to aj and i was like aj what what is the prop bet situation in vegas like like how many prop bets are even available when you go to certain casinos because on the apps i mean there's a thousand different prop bets but what about in the casinos and he's like well there's not really a ton of prop bets and you got to find the right casinos. Like I think Circa might be one of the casinos that offers you a good number of prop bets.

But for the most part, prop bets are not easy to come by and bet in person in Vegas. And in Vegas, you can't use FanDuel and you can't use DraftKings apps. So this guy's in Vegas. I sent him an email. I gave him a couple of prop bets I liked, simpler prop bets. I don't even know if you're going to be able to use them or not, buddy, but I appreciate you. You're killer. You're wonderful. I appreciate you. I just don't know if I can do anything to help you out, but I appreciate you listening, which is very important to me because I have like 11 people that do and you are one of them, so thank you.

But we've got NFL playoffs this weekend, Texans and Chiefs, as I said on the earlier podcast. House money. This is a no-doubt house money game for the Texans. If you lose this, it's not the end of the world. If you win, it's the greatest fucking thing ever. But there is no true downside to losing because most people thought you'd lose last week.

The team sucked for half the season anyway. So to go out and just be in this game as a victory, I know it sounds dumb to say that after you had such high expectations going into the season, but as the season played out, I think the expectations were changed a little bit. So to win a playoff game and have this opportunity to face the Chiefs as a big underdog in Kansas City is a victory on its own win is huge loss would be like you'd live with it especially played a good tight game against them but Jilly you're the diehard here do you feel like like it's a house money game for the Texans and the Texans fans I mean I felt we were to lose last week so yeah I'm not expecting anything this week and you're happy like the season is considered a success for the Texans even if they lose this game because of the fact they were able

to get that playoff win last week I don't know if it's a success it's better than I thought it was going to be at the tail end of that season I mean the high hopes were in September well they were five and one even Dave Portnoy put them as his futures bet to win the Super Bowl. There was hope there. Yeah, they fell off a cliff. I guess they were 5-1 at one point, and they finished the season 10-7. So what would that be, like 2-6 to end the year or whatever? I don't know.

I don't know for a fact that's what it was. It all changed after the Lions game, really. No, the Lions game was a real ball buster and you dealt with a lot of injuries. That's why I still feel that even though, like I think the expectations can change. Like the expectations you have at the beginning of the season can change in the middle of the season based on whatever's happened.

And what happened that year, this year, was that the team had high hopes early on. Then they fell off, basically fell off a cliff in the last two months plus but then they still were able to get a playoff victory which means to me again house money game for the texans so go out there let your nuts hang and let's see what you fucking got and that should be the mindset going into this your big guy you signed like stefan diggs was doing well and then like he gets hurt

tank gets hurt or last year at this point we got Nico and that's it no I'm with you so uh by the way speaking of guys you got we can start looking at prop bets now um the Chiefs give up a lot of receptions and a lot of receiving yards to tight ends and I'm thinking that we look at Dalton Schultz for his receiving yards which is like in the low 30s or the high 30s, like 38, 39. And his catches are in play in this game as well. I think that Patrick Mahomes' rushing yards are in play. He rushed for over 30 yards against the Texans last time out. So I saw this earlier. Mahomes actually rushes for nine yards more in playoff games on average

than the regular season. Yeah, no, he's going to run. And the Texans struggle with the rushing quarterbacks. And I think the reason that happens is because it's the playoffs and you've got to do whatever you have to do to win. Oh, last week it was the playoffs. You know what I missed parlays by? Like three of them?

Yeah. Rushing touchdowns from quarterbacks named Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. Well, rushing touchdowns is different than rushing yards. These guys always score rushing touchdowns. They didn't last week. Well, fuck them. I'm on your side. I'll probably go back to them this week. Yes, you will.

So I think Mahomes rushing yards is in play. I definitely think Dalton Schultz receiving yards are in play as well because, again, the Chiefs give up a lot of receiving yards and a lot of receptions to tight ends. I think they're second in the league and receiving yards allowed to tight ends so um i would run that way i would probably think that you're looking at a scenario where with all these weeks off they've had and people talk are they rusty or they rested i would still because i always do this i would go back to the kelsey well

his number i think is 50 something like that I would probably take him we'll assume that Taylor will be there oh yeah and if Taylor's there he's going for a hundo and she's going to be there so I'm taking the over for the receiving yards for Travis Kelsey as well probably the over passing yards for uh CJ because I think they're going to be playing from behind I feel the cold weather affects this, though. It's not 50 in rain. It's 22 and feels like in the teens. I don't think cold weather matters. Now, if it were truly like last year in Kansas City where it's deadly cold

and you're going to end up with frostbite, it may bother you. CJ Stroud has played in plenty of cold weather games. He's a guy that played quarterback at Ohio State. They've been there before. So I don't think this is like deadly cold weather that's going to truly alter the outcome of the game. It's not snow. It's not freezing rain. I don't think that really matters.

I mean, again, I'm still not optimistic, but we will do Texans touchdown shots tomorrow. So maybe we'll try to do a pot after that. But yeah. So do you have any particular in this game that you like in terms of props? I took the Dalton Schultz four catches. Yeah. Robert Woods is one of my favorites. His number's a lot higher.

Like last week it was only like 10 or something. It is, but he can get 20 easily. So I think it's like 17 and a half this week and two catches. I'd take both. And it's not like they're loaded with other guys to catch passes. Like they obviously this fucking Deontay Johnson, who I took to have a monster game last week, didn't even show up, then bitched about the fact that he didn't show up.

And then they shipped his ass off and now he's back in Baltimore. So I do like to throw it to Metchie a lot. It's a matter of fact, if he can catch it though, I guess. Well, no, but he'll, he'll catch a couple. So that's not a bad one either. But Dalton Schultz is my favorite play in this game he had 35 I think receiving yards on five catches last time they played one is I don't know if he's injured or what what's the other tight or the other tight end that uh played with CJ over he played with CJ at Ohio State yeah Cade Stover yeah but it's just a matter of a sneaky I don't know. Again, he might be hurt. I don't recall.

I don't know. I don't know either. I think he got hurt last game though, didn't he? I think he did, but if he didn't, I would say he'd be a sneaky touchdown candidate. The other game tomorrow is Detroit. There's a lot of pressure on Detroit. Not like max pressure on Detroit, but there is pressure

on Detroit to win. They're a favorable favorite. They are, but I don't think they're still at that point where if they lose... Now, losing this game would be devastating and set them back from what they've been ascending to, so they need to win this. And I think they're going to win it. I think they're going to be able to run the ball on Washington

because Washington's run defense isn't very good. Their pass defense is. A couple of plays I like in that game, Detroit's pass defense, particularly to wide receivers, has been atrocious, mostly due to injury. So I think that means that is a Terry McLaurin type game. That is an Omide Zaccheaus type of game. I think those two guys are going to have to make big plays for them because of the fact that their secondary is beat up and they give up a lot of yards to receivers.

And so I'm going big plays for receivers with Washington. Terry McLaurin and Zaccheaus are two that I would circle on that one. Well, at that point, might as well play Jaden's passing yards too. Oh, no, I think that's certainly in play. He's going to have to throw. Yeah, and they're going to be down. I don't know. What is that number on Jaden's passing yards?

I would imagine it's somewhere like in the 220s, maybe 227, 228. Obviously, the number is much higher for Jared Goff, whose number I do recall was 271 last time I saw it. But I'm with you. I think the passing yards total is very much in play for Jaden. Jaden is 237.5. Very much in play because they're going to be trailing. They're going to have to throw,

and I think their wide receivers are going to be able to make a couple of big plays in there that are going to help elevate that number. What about your boy David Montgomery? Are you playing him? Of course. He's got the knee issue. I don't know how this man is playing. number i just had one what about your boy david montgomery are you you playing him of course he's got the knee issue i don't know how this man is playing i mean this is like a torn mcl or some such shit and he was supposed to have surgery and then he didn't now he's mysteriously back it's like do we believe he's actually back i mean is he back enough to run in a two-yard touchdown

like it could be one of those scenarios where uh gibbs does all the dirty work or all like the the hard lifting and then at the end of it they give it to to uh montgomery i'd say that could certainly be something that's in play yeah absolutely i just one i just thought i thought of in this game and now i can't recall it damn it i just had it well if you remember it let me know uh now do you think that washington has a chance to win that game yeah Now, do you think that Washington has a chance to win that game? Yeah, I do. Do you think that they will? Probably not, but they definitely have a chance.

No, I'm with you. Like, there could be a – I think this is going to be – I honestly think this is going to be a close game. I would take them to cover the eight and a half. Well, that's the other thing about Detroit is, again, their defense has been so bad that you feel like anybody can kind of hang with them and move the ball down the field on them. Like, you feel like anybody can kind of hang with them and move the ball down the field on them like you feel like it's not impossible um they're going to win the game but you feel like there's a good chance that you're able to make some plays against them austin eckler is my guy

that's austin eckler guy that used to score tuds non-stop for the chargers not just tuds but as receiving you could either go his receiving yards making for like 25 receiving yards for minus 120 so we have a little parlay with that. And also his catches. I mean, like he catches at least three a game usually. And you can get him for three. Well, minus 205. You got to take four for positive money on this.

But he'll catch it. Especially if they can't get anything going. So, we both agree the Chiefs are going to win and the Lions are going to win. We're taking the obvious ones. But I think the Chiefs are, like, I think the Texans are in a situation where they're not a dead dog in this one. Like, I think they've got a shot, like with the way their defense played last week, you just got to go out there and just let loose. And I think Washington, and I'm with you, I think Washington has a chance to keep that one really competitive just based on the fact that Detroit's defense,

particularly their past defense, has been dreadful. Then you've got the Eagles game and the snow. Apparently, it's going to be like three, four, five inches of snow. I've seen conflicting reports, either one to two or three to five. I think it's going to snow. Now, is it going to snow during the game or is it going to snow early in the day and then they shovel it or snow blow it and it's fine? If I'm reading it correctly, it's supposed to snow a majority of the day okay now but we're not talking about like the eagles lions game in 2013 type snow but we're talking about still inches i mean if it's snowing during the game that's obviously i don't really have any read on this game prop bet wise like i love pukinakua but how much is matt staff are going to be able to move the ball down the field in snow?

Like, I don't know. Like, this could certainly be a game where the running game plays a big factor. I'm going to guess, and I haven't looked at this one yet, but I would imagine Saquon's number is well over 100, probably like 109, 108, 112. I mean, it's like somewhere high is what I would guess. And this could very well be a game where they're just feeding Saquon 25 times and just trying to get out of there if the weather were perfect I really 111 and a half okay that's okay so if this were a game where the weather were nice and it's 45 degrees 50 degrees and no conditions whatsoever in terms of you know uh poor conditions I really do think the Rams would have a legitimate shot to win this. And they can run the ball decent.

As you've mentioned, these are both teams that like to get up and then just not throw the ball if they don't have to. Well, Kyron Williams is another good play. He's 72-and-a-half. I don't know how he does in the snow, but if this is a snow game, I'd take Kyron for the 72-and-a-half. And the hard part about that is the Eagles' defense is so nasty. Their pass defense is particularly nasty.

And I'm with you. 72's not a bad number for Williams. But if this were a game played in a dome, if this were a game just played in nice weather, I think that the Rams would have a legit shot to pull the upset. And I like Matt Stafford. I love Puka Nakua. I like their running game. I think the Rams would have a

legit chance but I'm not going to say they're going to win because at this point you're playing outside you got the better running game now if somehow it came down to the Eagles having to throw the ball I would have a different opinion but the Eagles don't have to throw the ball again I'm going to go back to probably the Jalen Hurts touchdown on this. I believe it's positive money. And, yeah. Oh, that's not. It's minus 115. But I would still go probably the Jalen Hurts.

And also, A.J. Brown, admit it or not, he threw a fit last weekend. He did. His little book reading was some bullshit. Oh, I read it every week. Well, then how has no one ever zoomed in on you reading a book on the sideline? We would have seen that. Correct. Now, what's his number, though?

Are you talking about touchdown or? Again, the snow concerns me. I would imagine if it's going to snow and how little they throw, his number is probably going to be at a gettable range. I'm going to guess somewhere in like the 65 to 70 range. 68 and a half. Okay. I would take it.

All right. So I think that's a gettable number for him but again it depends on the snow how bad the snow is another one I love in this game and apparently he's alive after spitting up blood is my boy Tyler Higbee you do like Higbee tight end from the Rams speaking of tight ends the uh the Rams do a poor job in terms of giving up receiving yards to tight ends I would say Dallas Goddard whose number I think is like 38 I think I said earlier so The Rams do a poor job in terms of giving up receiving yards to tight ends. I would say Dallas Goddard, whose number I think is like 38. I think I said earlier, so 37.5.

I would take Dallas Goddard. Like in a game like this, snow, you're going to maybe not be airing the ball out too much. I think Dallas Goddard at 38.5. They keep going to this Dotson, right? Yeah. 2.5. 2.5 yards? Yeah.

I would take that. I would give it a shot that's one catch that's a fun one uh and then uh but we both agree the Eagles are gonna win I think again if that game were played anywhere else nice weather I would I really believe the Rams would have a shot but uh at this point I don't think they do and then finally you get the Bills and the Ravens. I'm going Ravens. I think the Ravens are going to win because I just don't buy playoff Josh Allen. Maybe I'm wrong on that because there's also playoff Lamar. Playoff Lamar. I mean.

I know, and I know they're on the road, but you got the King who can tote the ball. Mark Andrews has played well. I know they don't have Zay Flowers, but it's not like they have, like neither one of these teams have dynamic playmakers at the wide receiver position anyway. I like Shakir, and Shakir's number is probably going to be somewhere in the 40s or around 50. Shakir, with the weather being nice, I think Shakir could come into play and be a good receiving option in that game.

But I don't know, man. I don't know why I'm going Ravens. I don't know why I'm going Ravens. I don't know why I'm so anti-Josh Allen. I don't know why I'm so anti-Bills. But I'm going to go Ravens. I think the Ravens win that. I think Derrick Henry can tote it. They've got the advantage there. I think the quarterback, I mean, a wash. I think Josh Allen's probably a better thrower than Lamarar but Lamar has gotten a lot better in that position running wise Lamar is better um I'm going Baltimore to win and at this point you know I got to go and kind of look at some of the other props but they love to throw

to guys like uh Mark Andrews who's been a big factor lately for them. Weather shouldn't be a major issue, but I do think the Ravens are going to win. See, I'm going Bills, and my guy in this one is going to be Amari Cooper. Is his number somewhere around like 20 again? Yep, and there's a pattern here. You know I love patterns. You do.

So last game against Denver, he only had eight yards. Yeah. Then he didn't play the week before because nobody played. But game before that, he actually played 56. Game before that, 10. Game before that, 95. Game before that, 12. Game before that, 55.

Game before that, three. Game before that, 66. So he's due for a big one. We're looking at at least 20 yards. I go Amari Cooper all day. There you go. All right. So you're taking the bills. I'll take Baltimore to win. Josh Allen touchdown. big one we're looking at at least 20 yards i go amari cooper all day there you go all right so you're taking the bills i'll take baltimore to win josh allen touchdowns are a big factor as well so

there you go and maybe we'll uh drink some alky hall tomorrow and do another pod for you we appreciate you