The Josh Innes Show - Prop Til' You Drop: NFL Week 2

Episode Date: September 13, 2024

It's NFL Week 2! Are you a degenerate gambler like myself? Do you love the excitement of making prop bets? Good news! I've got my favorite props from every NFL week 2 game...Enjoy! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The following was recorded from inside an ice plunge. Ah! Woo! Okay. All right. When a Coors Light is cold enough, the mountains on the can turn blue. So the next time you want a cold lager, cold filter, cold package Coors Light, just wait until those glorious mountains on the can turn blue.

It's easy to say that fast when you're freezing gold. All right, Jamokes. It's Prop Till You Drop NFL Week 2. In Week 1, and look, full disclosure, I was in Indianapolis. I had my little index card with all of my favorite prop bets for the weekend, and then I accidentally threw it away in the bathroom of the Airbnb we were staying in. So I never actually tabulated my right versus wrong. I think it was probably somewhere around dead even. Someone who listens can actually give me the full breakdown of it, but I'm fairly certain it was either one up or

one under, somewhere around 500 on my picks last week. Here's how Prop Tia Drop works. I tell you my favorite prop bet from each NFL game this week. Now, that's going to skip the Thursday game because I'm recording this two hours before the Thursday night game, and I'll also do the Monday night game with some prop bets for the podcast on Monday. I'm also missing three games here because the props are not posted yet. And if they're posted tomorrow, I'll do an addition to this. Problem is some of these are missing. We don't know what the quarterback situation is with Green Bay, for instance.

Malik Willis is going to be the quarterback, but what's going to happen there? They don't have Jets in Tennessee up yet either. And I didn't see any for Pittsburgh and Denver. So tomorrow, or depending on when you're listening to this, let's just say Friday the 13th or maybe even Saturday morning, I'll try to add the other ones. But here are my favorite prop bets. I have to pick one prop bet from every NFL game, and I will give you my favorite from each, and I will tell you why. All right? And we will start with the Saints and Dallas.

The Saints are not as good as they would lead you to believe by beating the hell out of Carolina last Sunday. And the Cowboys, who knows what they are, but I know that they've got a quarterback that just got paid and played fairly well. I mean, as well as you're going to play in a blowout game. And he's got a dynamic playmaker on the field in C.D. Lamb. Important to note, the Saints in their secondary, Honey Badger's banged up. Marshawn Lattimore is banged up.

Saints are going on the road facing an actual team, not Carolina. I feel really, really, really, really good. This might be one of my favorites out of all the games this weekend. It's my favorite in the Cowboys Saints game. Might be my favorite of the weekend, certainly in my top two or three. C.D. Lamb over 85 and a half yards. He's going to eat. I think the Saints are going to get the shit kicked out of them. They're going to Dallas. I don't believe the Saints are as good as you would believe from last Sunday. And their secondary is beat up. And this ain't Bryce Young throwing to some bums. This is Dak and say what you want about him. But Dak to CD is a lethal combo.

Saints going on the road. I think CD, Dallas home opener, they're going to beat the Saints big. And I think CD is going for well over 85. I think he's getting into the hundreds. All right, Tampa at Detroit. Now, people are blowing Tampa because Tampa's the best team in the NFC South. The NFC South stinks. Who cares? Last week, Tampa played Washington. Now, Washington was down for a lot of the game, rookie quarterback, so what can you take from that? What I can take from that is that Tampa allowed over a hundred yards receiving to the running backs of Washington. Now it's important to note again, rookie quarterback, you're going to take some comfortable throws. I was actually kind of disappointed in the way that Jaden Daniels

played, but he ran well and he scored the Tud. So, and I think we took him last week for a touchdown. So that's good. And he'll probably do it again this week. I wouldn't be shocked, but there's a guy that I love catching passes out of the backfield. And that's Jamar Gibbs of Detroit. And one thing about Detroit, their offense is explosive and they got playmakers all over the place. I'm in Ross St. Brown, go down the list of guys, you know they got them. About 13% or 14% of the passes last season that were thrown by Detroit were thrown to running backs. Jamar Gibbs' number is over 24.5. So over 24.5 receiving yards for Jamar Gibbs,

to me that feels like a layup too. He's a great pass catcher out of the backfield. 24.5 feels good there. I think they're going to give up a lot of passing yards there. And I'm taking that Cleveland at Jacksonville. This is going to sound weird because I have spent this entire week shitting on Deshaun Watson as a football player, shitting on Deshaun Watson as a human. I do not believe Cleveland's going to go to Jacksonville and win. However, if there's ever going to be a time that Deshaun Watson is going to play well, one would imagine that it's this week. Again, the whole world's crushing him. People are accusing

him of having a burner account to defend himself. He's accused of another sexual assault. People are saying he's not worth the money. This is the worst it's been for Deshaun, at least football mixed with the off-field stuff. And he's had some bad shit happen to him. And this is worse than all of that other bad shit. For whatever reason, it could be a combo of things. I think he comes out and plays relatively well because he can't play much worse than he did last week and he still had about a buck 60 in that game the number is 211 yards passing I think they're going to be down in this game Jacksonville's at home so you're gonna have to throw when you're down anyway it sounds ridiculous with all the shit I've said about Deshaun 211 and a half I'm taking Deshaun over passing yards San Francisco's at Minnesota Brandon Ayuk seemed a little bit rusty and out

of shape and wasn't the primary guy they were going to in that game. You obviously had the kid running back that was spectacular. The more primary pass catchers in that game, he got a lot more out of Debo. Kittle had a good game as well. And what's his name as well? What the hell is that? 15. What's his name? Jennings. Juwan Jennings was great. He might be out this game because he's not available. I know he was beat up in that game, but he's not available in the prop bets. I think this is the game, after

getting one under his belt, that Iook has a big game. His number's 55 and a half. I want to say it was close to I think he had like 30, maybe 28, 30 yards on a couple of catches in the first game. I think he has a big, maybe 28, 30 yards on a couple of catches in the first game. I think he has a big game. His number is over 55 and a half.

He's gotten a week to get back into shape. I'm taking Brandon Ayuk over 55 and a half. Chargers at Carolina. Carolina sucks. I don't know that their lose 47 to 10 to the shitty Saints suck, but they suck. And I feel pretty confident in their suckeditude. That said, it's their home opener and they got the Chargers coming cross country to play them. I don't anticipate them getting their teeth knocked in.

I think there's some level of pride that kicks in at some point. So I think this game is at least somewhat competitive. And if this game is somewhat competitive, they're not going to rely on Bryce Young, who's seemingly terrible. He was bad last year and he seemed terrible last week. They're going to give the ball to Chuba Hubbard. I think he still had six or seven carries in week one and they lost by 37. This could be a game that if it's competitive, which I think it's going to be more competitive

than week one, I think they're going to give the ball to Hubbard. Usually I go with yards. I'm actually going to take Chuba Hubbard over 12 and a half rush attempts. It'd be really ideal if somehow they could carry a lead into the fourth quarter and just feed him and hold onto the ball. I don't think they will. I don't think they're going to win. I think they're bad.

Not that I think the charges are great, but I think this feels like a game that they're going to have at least a better shot and they're going to look more like an NFL team. They're not going to be down 17, nothing in the first quarter. You know what I'm saying? They're not going to be giving up, you know, a 70 yard touchdown on the first drive of the game. I don't believe they're going to play in front of nobody. Their tickets are selling for a dollar on StubHub. Nobody gives a shit, but they're at home. So I'm going to take Chuba Hubbard over 12 and a half attempts. Vegas is going to Baltimore. Baltimore is going to win this game, but these are the kind of games I like for the opposing quarterback, the one who I anticipate to be

losing to throw the ball. So I do think, and this isn't my pick for this game, but I would go with Gardner Minshew to throw for, I think the number was over 200 and a half, but I'm actually going to go Devontae Adams. His number is 57 and a half. And if you have to throw, you're going to try to feed the best player on your team. And he's the best pass catcher they have. So he's going to get seven, eight targets, maybe even more. And they're going to have to throw the ball a lot because this team in Baltimore is going to beat them so I'm going to take Devontae Adams over 57 and a half receiving yards Seattle's at New England New England's primed for a letdown primed they're not good fluky win over I say fluky when they beat them straight

up but I don't believe they're any good. One of my favorite touchdown scores to take, especially in parlays is Kenneth Walker, number three from Seattle. I think he's going to get a Tud. You get great value on a Kenneth Walker Tud. It may not hit, but when you're getting plus 115 on a guy that you feel comfortable is like the top guy to score a touchdown plus 115 feels good. So I'm taking Kenneth Walker to score uh no props up yet for Indy and Green Bay uh by the way though I did end up taking Indy as my pick in Nikki's sister Allie's suicide pool that we talked about the other day turns out they didn't need two picks this week they only needed one uh so we took Indy to beat uh Green Bay in Green Bay and uh nothing for the Jets in Tennessee yet either if I get one of those, I'll let you know.

Giants are terrible. They're at Washington. Washington's actually favored. You want to talk about a game where there are two touchdown props that are just totally worth it because the value is really bonkers as far as touchdown props go. Austin Ekeler two years ago was a touchdown machine. I think he had 18 touchdowns two years ago for LA. Number went down considerably last year,

but LA wasn't as good last year. Eckler to score a touchdown is plus 200. Inject it into my veins. Plus 200 for an Eckler-Tud? Come on, against these two bad teams here? Come on, Eckler against a bad Giants team? And what did we see last week? Running back scored three touchdowns against the Giants.

So I'm going Eckler plus 200 for the Tud. And I'm going Jaden Daniels also to score a touchdown. His is plus 125. You parlay those two guys. Let me put this in fan duel really quick so let's go to fan duel and let's see what it would be if you just parlay those two dudes to score a touchdown all right so let me go to the nfl i'm going to go to let's go nfl we're going to scroll down to the Giants and Commander skins anytime touchdown

scores we're going to go Austin Eckler plus 200 Jane Daniels plus 120 that's plus 614 100 bucks wins 614 dollar those are two dudes that I think can score against the bad giants. So just take them on their own or take them in a parlay. My God, the value is stupid. Uh, so Eckler plus 200 JD five plus one, I think it's plus one 20, uh, for his, uh, let's go with the Rams in Arizona, a little shit talking, not really shit talking, but a little dismissive talk from Kyler about Marvin Harrison jr. You know, he was asked about whether or not, you know, it was, you know, why he wasn't getting the targets and why this high profile rookie only had four receiving yards. And he said, I mean, my fucking job, which it kind of is, you're a dope. But this feels like one of those kind of games where a guy has a bad day in his

first, maybe he and the quarterback try to figure it out and put on a little bit of a show. They're also going to be in a position where I think they're going to have to throw a little bit in that game. I think they're favored, surprisingly, in that game. It's a very close one. I'm going to take Marvin Harrison Jr. over 56 and a half receiving yards. Cincinnati's at Kansas City. Look, I don't think Joe Burrow's gonna have as many bad games he had last week you could argue it's the worst Joe Burrow game of the Joe Burrow NFL experience Joe's gonna throw for over 229 because this is gonna have to be a shootout if they're gonna win it they tend to play well in Kansas City game should be fun uh Chase is ready to go he

actually had decent numbers last week too i think chase has a huge game two plays i like in this game burrow over 229 and a half and jamar's longest catch to be over 22 and a half yards i think he had a 28 yarder last week 22 and a half for the longest jamar chase catch take that one i like it uh nothing up for pittsburgh and denver yet and then you got the Texans and the Bears on Sunday night. Look, the Texans have no excuse to lose this. The Bears are not good. Special teams want them. Special teams in defense and really not even good defense against the Titans. Dumb shit from the quarterback won the game from them. I think Caleb Williams will play

better this week. He can't be as bad as 93 yards. Texans secondary did get torched last week. So if Caleb Williams goes out here and throws for 250, you might start to say, oh, we got problems. The Texans should win and they will win. Last week you had Joe Mixon going for a buck 70. So the bears are going to watch that and go, all right, we're not going to let this guy beat us. Well, when they're not going to let Joe Mixon beat you on the ground, you got Stefan Diggs, who he said would score a touchdown last week. He scored two. You've got Nico, who made the giant catch at the end of the game. You got Tank, who can go get it. But I'm actually going to go a different route with this. I'm going to go Joe Mixon over 14 and a half receiving

yards. For most of his career, he's a guy that's going to give you two, three, four catches a game out of the backfield. And when I look at the Texans last week, their run blocking was superb, spectacular, beautiful, right? So the Bears are going to play for that and they're going to make sure Joe Mixon can't beat them. They can't control the clock. Mixon's going to get two or three looks, maybe four looks. All you got to do is turn two or three of those to five yards a pop and you got this thing last week he had 30 something Joe Mixon over 14 and a half is where I'm going with that one so I think Joe Mixon I also think the Texans receivers are going to have fun in this game as well uh Stefan might actually have a higher uh yardage total than he had a week ago maybe the tuds won't be there but I think his yardage total will be up.

I want to say one of the receivers, I forgot if it was Tank or Nico. I guess it would have been Nico, I think. His longest reception was like 28 and a half was his number. And I'll talk some more about these maybe tomorrow. I'll look at some of the Texans ones. I know that my Houston people can't bet in Houston, which is pathetic and stupid and terrible.

Let's figure this shit out so the people can have fun with us. But maybe some of you have different offshore accounts. Maybe some of you go over to the Nugget or LaBerge in Louisiana. So, look, I think these are solid. These are good. Take them to the window. We'll talk more about those maybe Friday, maybe Saturday. Maybe we'll look at some college ones too.

I love sports betting and I love prop bets. So there you go, NFL Week 2, prop till you drop.