The Josh Innes Show - Prop Til' You Drop Week 1

Episode Date: September 5, 2025

Oh Boy! It's a new NFL season which means NFL Prop Til You Drop is back!!!! I've got my favorite prop bets from every week 1 game... Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Defender. With a towing capacity of 3,500 kilograms and a waiting depth of 900 millimeters, the Defender 110 pushes what's possible. Learn more at landrover.ca. Well, it is that time, kids. You've wanted it. I've gotten requests for it, and I am excited because with the return of the NFL season, that means it is the return of prop till you drop.

Yes, we love prop bets. And even if you don't gamble, say you play fantasy football, well, prop bets can kind of help give you a guide on what you should do with certain players in a given week as well. So while we specifically look at prop bets from these games, these prop bets can kind of help guide you in the right direction on your fantasy team as well. So let's play a couple commercials and let's get propping. All right, it's game week, baby, and we are ready for football with Draft King's Sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the National Football League.

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So first off, Jilly, because I record this at the radio station, there is no Jilly on this. I asked her to send me a couple props she likes, but we were just talking about them last night and then forgot to do it. So I'll let you guys know over the weekend. Maybe at home we can record one. The problem I'm having at home is our house just sounds like shit to record in. And maybe you don't care. Maybe the quality of the podcast doesn't mean much to you.

it means way too much to me like I can't stand when I listen to a podcast that sounds like shit although on occasion I'll record stuff in the car that I know you guys listen to and I know that that sounds like shit relative to some other stuff but maybe we'll record one just on my phone me and Jilly will and we'll look at some props I just hate the way that sounds and since Jilly doesn't come up with me in the morning because she works from home I did we tried like in our old house she could be in one room and I could be in the bedroom and that's how I recorded the podcast when she was working is I would sit in the bedroom she'd be on the other side of the house recording her shit and I couldn't hear her I tried to do that in this house like I went

downstairs into the basement I'm like who's going to hear me in the basement we could both hear each other loud and clear through this place it is a small house it sucks for that so that's why she and I just don't do a lot of podcast stuff together it sucks I get it I'm sorry I'm trying to figure some other shit out to make it sound better at the house so maybe we can do some pods together I know that they really like the idea of Jilly doing the radio show with me. I don't think she wants to do it. I don't blame her. She don't want to get up in the morning.

She doesn't want to be up at $3.50 the night after we were up until 1 o'clock watching football. So I get it. So not everybody's cut out to do this like I am. I'd like to go on two and a half hours of sleep and then record five fucking podcast episodes, then do a four-hour radio show. I'm blowing myself now. But she doesn't want to do that. So I don't think she would end up doing the radio show with me, but they're interested in her doing it.

but she's not interested really in doing it. But anyway, so we'll get Jilly's picks at some point. But let's look at prop till you drop. We'll start with tonight. It's the Chargers and the Chiefs in Brazil. The main talking point has been Kelsey and Taylor Swift, and he's been answering questions in Brazil about Taylor Swift. I'm going to keep this one simple.

I love Ladd McConkey. McConkey's my dude. Would not be shocked if he comes out and has 10, 12, 15 yards in the first quarter. but I'm going to keep it simple and go Ladd-McConkey over 71 and a half receiving yards. I'm a big tight-in guy. I mean, look at last night. Dallas Goddard was the number one target of Jalen Hertz, right? I am a big, tight-in guy who caught a lot of balls last night for Dak Prescott,

Jake Ferguson. I am a big tight-in guy. You'll learn that if you don't know it already, but if you listen for any period of time, you know I love tight-ins and making tight-in bets. I also, I think if Travis is going to have a big game, it would probably be in this game and then kind of gradually tail off. I'm not a believer in Travis. I don't see how he's going to be that much better than he was last year. I don't know what changed over this year to last to make him a better football player.

He says he's more focused on football and not his acting career like he was last year. I don't buy it. But his number is usually low. And if you can get in there in like the 40s with Kelsey, he's not a bad play. and if they're going to have a big game anywhere, perhaps it'd be game one. So I'd also keep an eye on that. But I really like Ladd-McConkie. I'm keeping it simple over 71 and a half.

The Giants in Washington, another one, tight end, keeping it simple. Although I love Malik neighbors, and you know I always build an NFLSU receivers, parlay, all that. Apparently, Kishon Bouté, the gambling LSU wide receiver, is turning heads with people think he's about to make a giant leap. So he may be a new addition to the NFLSU parlays. But as of now, you know that we love Malik and who knows what he's going to do. But I'm going back to the tight ends again. I'm going Zach Ertz over 32 and a half receiving yards for Washington. Fun fact, last year, Ertz was the second on the team in receiving and receptions.

So yards and receptions, they're going to throw the ball to Ertz. And 32 and a half seems very low. And this could be a scenario where he breaks a tackle. turns a six-yard catch into 15, and then all you need's a couple. I like Zach Gertz a lot of that one. Panthers and Jaguars, I'm going to do one that I did every week, and it hit a good number of times last year. Speaking of NFLSU, Brian Thomas Jr., over 25 and a half longest reception for the Jags.

Very simple, keeping it simple. I'm going to play it until it doesn't hit, and then I'll probably play it again anyway. but over 25 and a half for the longest reception for Brian Thomas Jr. The Steelers and the Jets, here's one for you. I'm going to go with two in this one. First off, I'm going to go A, Raj, over 202. You're talking about guys who are going to have a big day. If they're going to have a big day, this would be the day.

You're facing the Giants. You're trying to put on a show with the Steelers. He's kind of just been out of side out of mind. It looks like he's cooked. I think week one, you've had all off season to get ready for it. They're a better run organization than the Jets, so I think that's going to benefit Rogers as well. I think A-Rodge goes over 202, and I also am going on the other side with the Jets. I'm going with former LSU tight-in.

We're going tight-ins again, Mason Taylor. In his NFL regular season debut, I'm going to go Mason Taylor over 22 and a half receiving yards. So Mason Taylor, over 22 and a half, Aaron Rogers over 202 passing. Raiders and Pats, I'm just going to go Gino Smith over 228, although Vraibs could have a plan for him and have them just tied up all game. I'm going to go, I think the Pats are going to have this thing kind of in a back and forth, but probably be ahead. And you're going to find an opportunity for Gino to sling a little bit from behind, 228 over for Gino. I have a lot of them that I like in the Cardinals and Saints. My favorite bet of last year, Jawan Johnson, over half a receiving yard.

So basically to have a catch in the first quarter, that's the Saints tight end. He's my favorite player on that team. It is positive money for Joanne Johnson to have over half a yard in the first quarter. We're taking that. We're going back to the doofy white tight ends play for a Trey McBride over 63 and a half. We're going Rashid, Shaheed, the speedster that makes long catches for the Saints. He's usually good for one deep when a game. Shaheed over 19 and a half for his long catch.

We're taking that. Alvin Kamara, if the Saints can keep this thing even remotely. competitive. He's going to get touches. I'm going to take Alvin over 14 and a half rushing attempts. And I'm going to say he's somewhere around 20 touches total in the game. That is, of course, unless they're down big early, which is possible. They're one of the biggest underdogs of the week. If they are down big early, that kind of changes the running game plan. And perhaps Kamara is more of a weapon out of the backfield catching passes. He's going to catch at least three or four. And I think he's going to run the ball 15 plus times. And then I'm also looking

at the over in catches, over two and a half catches and over 25 and a half yards again for Joanne Johnson. The 25 and a half receiving yards and the games last year, many of them were Spencer Rattler at quarterback, so he's the one that's starting. He liked throwing to Juan Johnson. Over 25 and a half seems low. I think he eclipsed that number seven, eight times last year. I'm going to go with Joanne Johnson over two and a half catches and Joanne Johnson over 25 and a half yards. Cincinnati and Cleveland, another key, but simple one. I think this is going to have a game with a lot of passing yards. The two quarterbacks are going to combine for over 500, and one team is going to be down, and that team is going to be Cleveland,

and Joe Flacco, the old reliable gunslinger. I'm going to go Joe Flacco, over 241 passing, and part of that is because I don't believe in the Cincinnati defense, and I don't believe in the offensive line for Cincinnati. So Joe is never going to get into a situation where he's got him up big. So this is going to stay a competitive game because, again, all the things that they needed to address, Cincinnati didn't address. I think at least in the regular season, the offensive line looked like shit, and I think the defense didn't look any better. So I'm going to go flacco over 241, and I think both guys are going to combine for over 500 yards. If you have Fanduil, they do that. And I think so does Draft Kings. Miami and Indy, I am going to go

with an interception thrown. That's going to be the play in that one. I'm going to have Daniel Jones throw an interception. I don't know how well he's going to play with a new team, but I feel like Daniel Jones is going to Daniel Jones. I can also see a scenario where Miami gets Tyreek going. Look, if two is healthy, their offense is going to motor. The problem is when he's not healthy, it doesn't.

But their offense is going to put up numbers as long as his brain doesn't get knocked around. Let's see. Tampa and Atlanta, again, a simple one. I'm going to go Baker-Mayfield over 239 and a half. I think this game has all the makings of shootout as well. You know, I really love Michael Pinas Jr., so I think this game could be a back and forth. And my man, Emeka Egbuka, who I bet all the time at Ohio State, I'm going to ride with him in his first outing in the NFL. He's a reliable dude over 57.5 receiving. Tennessee and Denver, I'm going to keep it simple again. I say keep it simple. but Cam Ward did not look good in the preseason. And I'm taking rookie quarterback first start to throw an interception. San Francisco and Seattle, I'm going George Kittle Touchdown and Jackson Smith and Jigba.

I'm going to go with over 60 and a half. I like his number. Like last year, he was a dude that was huge for me. It just always made plays for me. So I'm going JSN over 60 and a half and George Kittle to have a touchdown. Detroit and Green Bay. I think this also has potential to be a back and forth offensively. Here's the thing you're going to run into.

Detroit has a new offensive coordinator and a new defensive coordinator. That is a huge factor in all of this, right? Over the course of the offseason, everything that was described, everything we saw with our own eyes, now granted, this was not golf, this was none of the starters, is that their offense was not good. but we didn't see the real offense. We saw Hendon Hooker. So I don't know that they'll be the they'll be humming right out of the gate like they were. But I think I'm going to go with over-Goff 241 and a half.

Because I think that they're going to, they may have a hard time stopping Green Bay as well. So I think you have a chance at a back and forth there. Texans and Rams, I think I'm going to go with Stafford's passing yards, assuming health here. but this also has potential to be a good competitive game. Now, he lost Cooper Cup, but he still has Pooka Nakua, and he's added Devante Adams. So I think he's going to have some guys that throw too. We like Higby. Jilly loves Higby.

So I'm going to go with Gough or rather with Stafford over in that one. Baltimore and Buffalo, I'm going to take both Josh Allen and Lamar to score touchdowns. And then in Minnesota and Chicago, I'm going to take J.J. McCarthy, who I do not believe is going to be a good pro. J.J. McCarthy to throw an interception, and I'm going to take T.J. Hawkinson over 41 and a half receiving yards. I love when there's a young quarterback, a guy that hasn't done much in the league, has an opportunity to throw it to a tight end. It feels like a big tight end game for me there. So Hawkinson, over 41.5, McCarthy and interception. And with the new offensive, well, I say with the new offensive coordinator, with Ben Johnson being the new head coach in Chicago, I do think

Chicago is going to be better. And I think Caleb's going to be better. And if they're trailing in that game, There could be a scenario where he throws for his yards as well. So there you go. Prop to you drop. We are back. We are so back, baby. Love it. More to come.