The Josh Innes Show - Prop Til' You Drop Week 11

Episode Date: November 16, 2024

We've got your NFL Week 11 Prop Bets hot to go. I've got a few plays this week that I LOVE. Enjoy. Plus, we tell you which teams are winning this weekend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, Jamokes, it's Friday night. It's about 7.41, 7.41, and we're just hours away from the Tyson fight, which I have bet on. I did put a bet in, by the way. Now, whenever you listen to this, you'll know whether or not I hit it or not, but I took Jake Paul to get knocked down at least once by Tyson.

All right, now that was plus like 130, I think, and then I used a boost that was on DraftKings for the fight, a 50% boost, so I got right up to around plus 200. Plus 200. So I put a hundo spot on that, so that could win about 200 bucks for me if that hits so we're rooting for mike tyson to at least knock down jake paul once now it's also important to note that um a lot of people are questioning the validity of this fight a lot of people are saying

it's a work well if it is a work then that bodes well for me because i don't think they're gonna have mike tyson go out there and just get pummeled in a work. Like it would make more sense as a dramatic work for him to go out there and like early on, like Tyson stings him with a, with a hook, knocks his ass down. And you're like, holy shit, the 58 year old guy knocked down Jake Paul. Oh my God. And then it would make sense then for Paul to beat him in the end. So Paul doesn't lose his

credibility losing to a 60 year old man if in fact it is a work I was actually talking with AJ about that um so if you think it's a work then I think it bodes well I know that Portnoy thinks this thing's a fucking sham and that it's ridiculous that uh that Jake Paul is only minus 200 I saw a video that he posted about that, so we shall see. I'm excited for that. For whatever reason, it's so dumb to be excited about something so ridiculous as a 60-year-old dude fighting a YouTube dude,

but I'm legitimately excited because it takes me back to my youth. Jilly, did you ever watch any Mike Tyson fights in your home when you were a child? No, I didn't have cable. You didn't have to. You'd have to order the pay-per-view. We certainly didn't do that. Did you ever order wrestling pay-per-views? No, I didn't have cable. You didn't have to. You'd have to order the pay-per-view. We certainly didn't do that.

Did you ever order wrestling pay-per-views? No. That's all we did. My grandma wanted to watch wrestling pay-per-views, so my dad would order them, and then we would watch those, and then me and my grandma once watched the Tyson-Peter McNeely fight.

Dad ordered it for us, and it was over in the first round. That was one of the times we got to order one of the Tyson fights, and that was his comeback fight after he got out of jail basically like tonight like the longest this could be is like what like 16 minutes yeah it's only is it eight rounds yeah two minutes each yeah so it's not going to be very long so we've got 16 minutes potentially to watch mike tyson get one knockdown. He doesn't have to win. That'd have to be a knockout. It just has to be a knockdown tonight, and I would win that bet.

So that's exciting. We shall see how this goes here in a couple hours. We've also got football this weekend. For what it's worth tonight, I also took the passing yards for Noah Fafita. I went against my... I can't believe you went back. He was on the do not bet list. I literally said that this morning on the podcast. I'm like, Noah Fafita, who went against my... I can't believe you went back. He was on the do not bet list. I literally said that this morning on the podcast.

I'm like, Noah Fafita, who used to do big shit for me, doesn't do anything anymore, but for whatever reason, I'm taking him. So we'll see how that plays out. But we got good college football tomorrow. LSU still alive for the SEC championship game, which sounds ridiculous. About a week, about eight days ago or so,

I was despondent and sad and miserable after LSU lost, but here we are today on this Friday. I'm walking through the mall in the St. Clair Square Mall in Fairview Heights, Illinois, where I go on Fridays to sit outside the Shuttered Sears store, where there are three comfortable chairs and no one's around because it's the anchor store at that end of the mall and it's comfortable chairs and no one's around because it's the anchor store at that end of the mall and it's closed. So no one comes down that way unless they're mall walking. So I sit there and I get out my legal pad and my marker and I write down my props for the weekend and I listen to either podcasts or Neil Diamond. So I've got those written

down, but I was at the mall today and as I'm walking out, a gentleman, a nice black man walks by me, points to his hat. His hat has the state of Louisiana on it. I took off my headphones, and I said, go Tigers. And he said, go fucking Tigers. And I said, if I've got a guy saying go Tigers in Fairview Heights, Illinois at the St. Clair Square Mall, good shit's going down. So LSU's winning tomorrow. They're going to win out.

And we need, from what I understand, we need like Georgia to beat Tennessee. Uh, we need a couple of things to go our way, but we could make the sec championship game. So let's fucking go. But that's tomorrow. Good college football tomorrow. And since LSU starts at two 30, our drinking starts at two 30 and our meat smoking starts early. So tomorrow's going to be a shit show where who knows may do another pod at some point tomorrow. Once we've really fallen off the wagon. Cause it's going down early. It's going to be a shit show where who knows, may do another pod at some point tomorrow once we've really fallen off the wagon because it's going down early. It's going to go down early tomorrow with an early LSU game. All right, so with all that said,

Jilly, it's time to look at the games. We can look at the actual games first, and then we'll give our favorite prop from each of those games. All right, so what is the first game on the schedule? It's the Packers at the Bears. Packers are going to win that game. We got my boy Jordan Love, healthy, good to go. I don't care that the Bears have a new coordinator.

They're falling apart. The team, some of the veterans, quote, unquote, some of the veterans want Tyson Bajent. I don't blame him because he's a good prop bet guy. But what's the line? Five and a half. I think the Packers are coming out and going to knock their dicks off, even though it's a rivalry prop bet guy uh but what's the line five and a half i think the packers are coming out and gonna knock their dicks off even though it's a rivalry game that's in

in chicago yes it might be somewhat competitive i guess if you're gonna be competitive it would be the week after you know you've lost three games i think they've lost three games in a row uh that they're in fighting they're firing coaches so you saw what happened with the saints they fired their head coach came out and beat atlanta at home so maybe now maybe now i feel like with the saints the players didn't really turn on each other they kind of bonded together because they all hated dennis allen seemingly yeah but the bears like seemingly are in shambles you got the vets saying caleb sucks you've got guys saying like why aren't we doing this why aren't I getting mine? Caleb hasn't thrown a touchdown in three games. They're a mess.

All right, so I agree. And I think the Packers are going to win that game, and the Bears are going to continue to be in shambles, and at some point they're going to fire the coach. Prop bet-wise, I'm going to go with Jordan Love over 229.5, which is a very low number for Jordan Love. Usually his are among the higher totals in football. His are usually like 250, 260. His is 229 and a half. So I'm going to take Jordan Love and I'm going to take Romeo

Dobbs over 45 and a half receiving yards. That's a low total for him. And I'm tempted by DeAndre Swift because you know I like his rushing and receiving yards, although he hadn't been hitting that lately. And I think he's gone a couple of games now without a touchdown after having three or four consecutive games with the Tud so that's a little iffy um also a good Tud candidate potentially is the running back from the Packers if he plays like Jaden Reed well no that's the Jaden Reed is the wide receiver from the Packers I'm'm talking about, yeah, I'm talking about the running back. Oh, Josh Jacobs. Yes, Josh. Got my J's confused. Yes.

I would say, but now he's been beat up too. Like, I don't know if he's actually playing and if he is, how healthy he is. But I would say a touchdown for him is also very much in play. I like Roma Dunzey's over receiving yards. He seems to be probably one of the only ones who may still like Caleb because they're both rookies. Yeah, that good point. So it's 34 and a half he usually gets right around 40 yeah so i'm gonna go with rome adunze rome adunze all right what is our next game we have can i get the mic or no oh

sorry the jaguars at the lions is it really a game no the lions are going to beat the shit out of the jaguars uh is it uh mac is still playing quarterback right mac jones so the lions now granted the lions are coming off a game in which like hey big dramatic comeback victory on the road sunday night football and if they were playing anybody else other than the jaguars with mac jones i would certainly consider taking the other team at least to cover this is a 13 and5 point spread, and I still don't think the Jaguars will cover. Yeah, I don't either. I think that Detroit's going to go out there and throttle them pretty good.

As far as prop bets go, I'm going to go to the other running back. We usually like to go with David Montgomery, and Montgomery's fine, but Jameer Gibbs, I think, has been the guy lately and is over for rushing yards of 69 and a half and he's hit that six times this year and I think like three of the last four games he's been a fucking beast I think he's had over a hundred a couple times in there so I'm actually gonna go with the second back on the team the speed guy I'm going with Jameer Gibbs 69 and a half yards over and he may score a touchdown because he does that

every week as well I'll tell you it's tempting to take the Mac Jones 183 and a half because they're going to be losing so he's going to have no choice but to throw maybe the Lions get bored I don't know the fuck do you throw to uh you throw it to Brian Thomas Jr. oh yeah yeah um you know throw it to Evan Ingram well that's true uh I didn't know I thought Brian Thomas might have been injured but I guess I'm wrong and I'll full disclosure I started thinking of Mac to Mac Mac Thomas fucking Mac Jones and I started thinking Patriots so I'm like who's he gonna fucking throw it to Kayshaun Boutte but no it's the Jaguars uh and uh ATN is back running for the Jaguars he can catch Evan Ingram's not a bad one because he's consistently,

no matter who the quarterback has been, has been a guy that's going to get targeted five, six times a game. And all their numbers are going to be low because the passing yardage total for the quarterback's 183. So, of course, they're going to be low. I'm still going to ride with Jameer Gibbs. I just don't know if I trust. If anything, I would take mac jones

to throw a pick oh yeah of course i'm sure there's no value in that but there is a good opportunity i think for an interception parlay this weekend because there's a lot of candidates to throw a pick i agree on that all right so who are you riding with uh i told you i think i might i don't know i'm tempted by the mac jones yards but i might roll with evan ingram he seems kind of like the safety net yeah it's it's been a good one for them no matter who the quarterback's been all right what is the next matchup oh boy mike please sorry we have one mic that's true listen we're very basic in what we do we sit on the couch and if i lose my train of thought and start staring at something else i will forget to give jilly the mic it is shameful but this is the janky way we're doing this until we find a new setup the vikings are at the titans

the vikings at the titans so obviously the vikings are going to win this thing because the titans are a mess they're coming off a loss they lost last week right yeah well the vikings haven't been very good the last couple of weeks well no the vikings won they won like 12 to 7 over the jaguars oh yeah that was a really forgettable game yeah it was no it was memorable for me because the fuckers didn't score a touchdown because sam darnold samuel what was his middle name i tweeted with an e no something darnold threw like five picks yeah and all of them in the end zone i needed him to throw two tuds that's what it was so speaking interceptions, obviously when I've taken a middle naming quarterbacks when they piss me off.

Well, here's not a bad idea. Then I think an interception for Darnold might be in play, but I'd also, you know, Richard Darnold, cause it was Dick. Yeah. Sam Dick Darnold, you piece of shit. Samuel Dick Darnold over here. So I'm going to go. I think both quarterbacks could throw a pick in this one.

Cause Darnold has taken to throwing interceptions lately. But Will Levis interception and Justin Jefferson with a low total for him. 80 and a half is his total. People give the Titans defense way too much credit. And I think they're looking too much into last week when he only had 48 yards. But that whole thing was a mess for them last week and they threw a lot of picks. They were trying to force it to him a lot. I think that's why they threw a lot of picks. They were trying to force it to him a lot. I think that's why they threw a lot of picks.

But outside of last week, Justin Jefferson had more than 80 receiving yards in every other game. So one game's not going to determine. He might have 40 in the first quarter. By the way, he's a great first-quarter bet receiver because usually he'll get you 20 in the first quarter. So if you're interested in first-quarter bets bets his is usually like over 17 or 18 yards I would take that as well especially like when he's not getting his quarterbacks that are smart no they got to feed the beast early to make them happy so I'm gonna go with Will Levis interception probably a Darnold interception if

you want to build the interceptions parlay and I think Justin Jefferson will have a buck 30 in this game I mean like you might want to bet this up 80 and a half you might want to take it to 100 that'll give you plus money on that one probably plus 150 or something maybe plus 200 if you take it up to 100 very good value for that he's going to get his 48 freaking yards last week when every other game this year he's gotten over 80, he's going big in this game against the Titans, who do suck, and their defense gets too much credit. They're way overvalued. They got embarrassed last week. The Titans are not good.

So we're taking big-time yards from Jefferson. I agree with the Jefferson one. If you're looking for more of a risk on the Titans side, I think I'm going to roll with Tyler Boydd his number for receiving yards is uh 20 and a half i didn't even know tyler boyd played for the titans yes correct he came over with the coach uh i had no has he played this year yes no shit he didn't play last week but he has uh also another good candidate for these is um is Pollard like rushing and receiving for Pollard sometimes his receptions are a decent play too uh because Pollard's actually been very good it's very easy for people to look at the Titans and be like oh you let Derek Henry

walk and Henry may be the fucking MVP certainly in the running for offensive player of the year uh but Tony Pollard is not Derek Henry but Tony Pollard as the premier back now, pretty fucking solid. He'll catch two or three balls a game and he'll make some plays. So I don't know what his rushing and receiving total is. If I had to guess, it's probably low eighties, maybe, maybe the high seventies. It's not a bad play to consider Tony Pollard as well. But Justin Jefferson, if you ask me what maybe my favorite play of the day is,

Justin Jefferson over 80. You're giving me one of the most elite receivers in the game, coming off his worst game of the year statistically, on a game in which the quarterback didn't lead them on a touchdown drive. You want to tell me that my man ain't getting 80 and a half? He might get fucking 80 and a half in the first goddamn quarter. Yeah, I agree on that, totally. Thank you.

All right. What's next? Next, we have the one of arguably like a few games of the week here because there's not very good. There's not many good matchups. But this one is it is the Baltimore Ravens at the Pittsburgh Steelers. First off, I think the Steelers are winning and it sounds weird. And when they do this, I'm going to have to put the Steelers in that Super Bowl category

because as it sits today, I still believe the Ravens are a Super Bowl. I think Ravens, I think Chiefs, I think Lions are the three teams I look at and say, okay, they can win the Super Bowl. But I think they're going to win. They're at home. And Rusty's been playing his dick off. And remember this, that Baltimore secondary, particularly their corners, get torched on the outside.

Well, what happens on the outside for Rusty? Rusty throws it up to our boy George Pickens. Pickens, Pickens. It's going to be easy Pickens for Pickens this weekend. His number for receptions is 4.5, and I think he's going to get that. And what are the actual yards then? It's got to be somewhere in the 60s? 70.5.

Oh, come on. That's another one that I like a lot. I wrote Naj at 15 and a half but Naj is also still have has the ankle injury he's not healthy and the problem is and maybe it's up there now but when I wrote this down earlier the backup running backs number wasn't up he could be a guy that I think his number will probably be like in the 40s or 50s that's Warren right yep I love him for catches okay and I just look to see if it was there, and it's not. But Jalen Warren, and that's his name, right, for catches is always good. So keep an eye on that whenever it's available for you.

Like, I like Naj, but when Naj isn't going, he ain't going. Now, he had, I think, three consecutive 100-yard games before last week. Naj's total is only 50-and-a-half. But I think this is going to be a rusty game because Rusty's going to get to get him on the outside with my boy George Pickens. Rusty over 228-and-a- and a half bitches i would take that too i also like rashad bateman he's become he's become a favorite of mine and his longest reception is 18 and a half oh come on and all they do with him is throw it deep for him well last game i had him for a first uh quarter over

and it was over like four yards or something, and they threw it to him for 40, and he dropped it, or it was incomplete. But they're going to try to get it to him. So Bateman, you've been on Bateman the whole year. Correct. I like his – I mean, his receiving yard is 36-and-a-half. That's good too. But if you want to, you know, specify it,

the 18-and-a-half longest reception is pretty solid, I think. Now tell me this. Who do you think is going to win the game? Ah, boy. I think this is a prove it game for Pitt, man. This is a big game for them.

Well, and the Ravens, they just had that dramatic win against the Bengals. So I I'm, I'm leaning towards the Steelers. Yeah. I think the Steelers are going to win. I was watching Pat McAfee earlier,

of course. And there was some stat about how, like in the AFC North, any teams that are favorite by three or more are only like 2-18 of all time against each other, and the Ravens are a three-and-a-half point favorite. So maybe you at least take the Steelers to cover. I think the Steelers are winning, baby.

Rusty, he's done it. All the people that hate him and they call him names and say he's corny, good. Keep schooling these fucks, Rusty. Do it do it baby that may be low because i did this i finally did one yesterday i put 20 on jayden fucking daniels who did not come through my i finally said fuck it i'm putting 20 bucks on one thing right yeah and of course it was a loss but maybe maybe now that will be rust for me sund. The 228.5? The Ravens give up so many fucking yards. I think the Ravens have the worst pass defense in the NFL yardage-wise. Now, part of that is because they've played Joey twice,

and each time he's thrown for like 500 on his own. But they give up nearly 300 passing yards a game. And you got George Pickens going out there that's going to be making plays? Come on, baby. I like Pickens, and I think Rusty knows you got to keep him happy because he's the one that will throw a fit. Well, he's the guy that's quit on plays before. Yeah, multiple times.

All right, what's next? Oh, boy, the Raiders at the Dolphins. So the Dolphins still haven't really hit any sort of stride yet, although they did get a big win over the Rams. The Dolphins are still alive, and they're healthy. I'm going to take Tua over 239 and a half, which is kind of like the easy one, like Tua, you know, he's who I'm going to go with. I also think that Minshew, who's playing, but who knows how long, I mean, they're a mess. I'm going to take Minshew to throw an interception as well. He's a good candidate for the interception parlay if you're interested in such a... Interception

parlays are fun you put like four or five of them in there put a couple bucks on it and see what happens because if you put four of them in there you're probably going to get close to plus a thousand depending on the value on it so rock on but i'm going to go with the tua passing yards now granted some of the things weren't available like i didn't see waddle i didn't see his number i didn't see anything for tyreek um waddle's a pretty good candidate for early in the game and then he disappears so Waddle's a good first quarterback guy and then you don't see him a ton keep that in mind uh what do you got I just I can't not take Tyreek for positive money to score a touchdown I think

they're finally did it last week I know I think they're finally starting to get going he's like oh my wrist but I love the game. I'm going to play. So, I mean, plus 115 for a Tyreek Ted against the Raiders? Yeah. Okay. Ooh, I also do love Brock Bowers. He's another one of my guys. Brock Bowers gal. And let's see what his receiving yards are here.

We like our Georgia tight ends. Brock Bowers is at 53 and a half. So, I don't know. Is the Dolphins defense any good? Not really. Not really. So maybe him. I also like this Jonu Smith for the Dolphins. Oh, you do. He's sneaky. Yeah. I think

he ended up with three catches last week and his number was three and a half. It's three and a half this week for positive money plus 135. So that's certainly something you can entertain. I think the Dolphins will win that. The Dolphins are going to still hang around in the AFC where four or five wins at this point in the

season keeps you alive for the seven. They're also seven point favorites over the Raiders. The Raiders fucking suck and I understand the idea that oh the Dolphins do. The Dolphins played a handful of games without their starting quarterback so do they really suck or was it do mostly in large? Now that doesn't mean I think they're great,

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is a perfect storm because you've got Patriots coming off a win, which doesn't happen very often. And then you've got the Rams coming off a loss and the Rams have been playing better lately. I think now here's what I think is going to happen. New England, very overrated defensively. So what I think is going to happen here is this is going to be the kind of game, and normally I like to take my man Staffie to throw for the yards, and who knows, come Sunday I probably will because I don't like to go against the Staffie man. But here's the one I'm going with in this game

because I think it's going to be a game in which they're up pretty comfortably, and I think they're going to be in ball control mode. I'm going to take Kyron Williams over 19 and a half rush attempts in this game. Every game he hovers around 17 to 20, but a lot of their games are really close. Like last week they had to rally, like they're constantly in rally mode. So they're throwing a lot more. I don't think they want Stafford throwing the ball 40 fucking times a game. I think they want Kyron Williams to be able to pound it.

I'm going over 19 and a half attempts for Kyron Williams to be able to pound it I'm going over 19 and a half attempts for Kyron Williams I mean for the love of god he's due to score a touchdown dude scored six touchdown like or scored a touchdown or more in his first six games and he has not scored a touchdown in the last three well and if you'll recall the staffy man had him wide the fuck open in the end zone last week and threw it elsewhere for an incompletion cost him a touchdown it was he literally was just sitting in the end zone like a seven yard pass out of the backfield was just sitting there wide open and he didn't get the pass from Stafford so uh but I'm going uh I'm still riding with uh Kyron on that one and like last week I won because I took 20

receiving yards in each half for Cooper Cup and Pukunukuwa, which isn't a bad one because those guys are going to get theirs. When they're both healthy, they're both getting theirs. And both of them have a number right around 68, 67 for the game. So I mean, Stafford's going to get his, but I think his number's close to 250 this week. It's in the 240s. And against a bad team that's coming off a win that you should have a lead against. You're coming off a loss. You're a better team, better coached, better quarterback. I think Kyron's going to really tote the mail, as they say this week. Man. Yeah, I'm taking him in a Tud parlay somewhere.

Yeah. I don't know where yet, but he'll fit in somewhere. I agree. He's due. Who's next? My app just shut down. Hold on. Next, we have the Colts at the Jets. Anthony Richardson interception.

I'm looking forward to this dude playing. You don't think he's going to just ball out now that this is redemption? No. He still fucking sucks. So great. Have all the redemption you want. I think the Colts are going to lose. Actually, one of my favorite plays of the day as well

is Garrett Wilson over six and a half receiving yards. We've talked about how bad the Colts' defense is. It's mediocre. And Garrett Wilson, every game, is going to get targeted seven or eight times, and he's going to make five or six catches. I'm going Garrett Wilson. As much as he loves his boy Devontae,

and I'm not saying Devont what may he may ball too but garrett wilson is the best receiver on that squad at least for that squad i'm going over 68 and a half for garrett wilson and anthony richardson to throw it an interception i think i might take michael pitman i think his number's around 30 something for uh receiving yards and he was one of the guys that was seemingly really pissed when they took out fucking Richardson. So, again, maybe that's his buddy. I mean, he could throw it to him for 31 yards. I feel good about that.

I agree. Who's next? Next, we have— Who do you think's winning that game? Because the line is, what, two or three? It's four. For the Jets? i think the jets are gonna win like they're not good but everybody now they're all hyped up because dingus is back guess

what dude's gonna get his ass handed to him like he always fucking gets his ass because they suck now the jets suck too motherfucker but i'm still like i think that people are gonna be so happy oh my god he's so back i've never seen a guy who sucks at football get more pity from people so it's I'm going a Rog to have a big day and the Jets are going to win that thing I love Aaron Rodgers two touchdown passes and it is positive money this week friends well one of your favorite things to do is build a parlay with two touchdown passes so he'd obviously be in there and help you out because there's you know and there's another guy who's always a candidate to do it but doesn't do it very often, and that's Mahomes, who could throw for two even though he doesn't do it all that often.

There's usually good value on Mahomes to throw two tuds. Burrow I usually take. Burrow's another good one in there. Aaron Rodgers, plus 120 to throw two tuds. I mean, he's pissed. He's going to want to like get his – he's got to throw one each to Garrett Wilson and Devontae, keep him happy. And as you've said last week, and it didn't come to fruition,

but you're not wrong, Brees Hall's just disappeared. Like, he used to be an auto touchdown, and now you don't get that anymore. Now we have the Browns at the Saints. Sadly, I think the Saints are going to win. I don't want them to win. I'm tired of hearing dumb Saints fans talk about how much they like the interim coach

because he clogged the fucking toilet before the fucking game. God, you people are stupid. They love that. They that they're fucking dopes like we don't want to win stop don't win games there's no value in winning six fucking games be terrible and i think they are going to regress like you're riding high last week you're excited you're at home against your rival they're playing for the playoffs you're not you've lost seven in a row coach got fired you got to prove that it was right to fire the coach. This week you're playing a shit team. Jameis is coming home.

I think Jameis is going to throw a pick like he did multiple times last week. And there weren't a ton of things up when I looked at the Saints. So I don't know a lot about what's available in this game. All I know is that I'm very comfortable saying Jameis will throw a pick. Alvin Kamara's receiving yards are always solid. They're 40 and a half, but he seemingly cruises to that pretty regularly. I also think I might roll with Derek Carr's passing yards.

Really? 213 and a half. Well, now here's a reason why that could come into play. Eric McCoy is back. And the Saints, they were 2-0 when Eric McCoy got hurt early in the game against the Eagles and since that point the Saints offense has been dog shit part of that's because Carr was out so you had backups in but the offensive line has been a disaster getting your center back is

gigantic so his passing yardage over is not a bad play and I would expect the game to be competitive and he cruised last week thanks to Marquez Valdez-Scantling. Yeah, who I didn't even know played for the Saints. And another guy I like is Juwan Johnson. He's a tight end for the Saints. And in the first quarter, his number is usually over half a yard, and it's usually plus money. I like him to get a catch in the first quarter because he does it pretty often. And his number's only in the 20s.

So Juwan Johnson is not a bad candidate in this one as well. I think it's 23 and a half maybe, and he usually – now, I don't know what his receptions total is. He usually only gets like two a game. So if it's over one and a half, it's kind of worth a shot. First quarter reception for him is not a bad play either. Over half a yard is usually what it is. What's his actual number? numbers at 23 and a half the catches are two and a half um and his receiving yards are 27 and a half it's a little bit higher

than when i looked at it earlier he's a solid candidate because when he makes a catch it's usually like a 15 to 20 yarder so that's not a bad one foster moreau at 11 and a half and he sneakily seems to get one it could be for 12 yards could be for a touchdown too he does that too speaking of people way overdue for touchdowns that would be Mr. Alvin Kamara yes it is he's due not scored since October 13th no shit yep he's gone four games now without a touchdown he's their best player on offense and he doesn't have a touchdown in the past four weeks well it's because they give the ball to taste him who's also not a bad play he's got he's getting about two catches a game too four weeks. Well, it's because they give the ball to Taysom, who's also not a bad play.

He's getting about two catches a game, too, since he's come back. Oh, he's always a good one to take for an anytime touchdown if you're just feeling risky. Well, it's not really risky because when they get down there, they give it to him, and he's done it. Has he scored a touchdown two weeks in a row, or was it just two weeks ago? I think it was two weeks ago because he won me that bet. It wasn't last week.

So it was two weeks ago that he had the Tud when I got four out of seven in my touchdown parlay that would have won us a new house. Obviously, it didn't. We don't have a new house. But somehow the Saints are going to fucking win, and it's going to piss me off, and they're all going to be excited about the dingus that fucking clogged the toilet. They love that. Also, I think Nick Chubb may be in play for a ton for the Browns.

Oh, absolutely. 100%. The Saints defense will not play as well as they did last – and they really didn't play well last week. They were out-gained big time in that game. So let's not act like they were great. You got a couple of big turnovers in that game. You got a couple of missed field goals in that game.

That was the difference. Well, Chubb for a touchdown is positive money so if you want to build a touchdown parlay chubb is not a bad candidate to put in a touchdown parlay it would even out like if you put kyron williams in there friends i think justin jefferson is a solid play for a tut as well i mean they tried to force it to him last week i told you jefferson's my favorite fucking of all the plays we've mentioned so far. My absolute favorite is Justin Jefferson over 80 and a half. And I think a Tud comes into play. I want to say that Jefferson for a Tud is the most likely touchdown score in that game.

I think I think it's minus money, which is normally not the case. So there's also Foster Moreau, who we just talked about, plus 650 for a touchdown. So he's a good wild card. See, and that's also fun to build like a wild card touchdown play like last week I built one with guys who should have scored none of them did and then you build one like when we do Nick Westbrook Akini whose streak is over so like there's no point in getting back on with him now but he's plus 400 it's fun again it's a long shot but if by some miracle it happens you're getting a new car so why not all right what's next next we have the Seahawks at the 49ers passing yards uh one of my favorite passing yard guys is Geno Smith uh Geno's

total is over 250 I will take that because they're probably going to be losing I will take DK Metcalf who is back longest reception over 24 and a half yards I will take Jackson Smith not gonna say his last name uh 50 and a half over uh receiving yards he was huge he had over I think over 100 in that game we were watching the other day and he's been good and it's always nice to take Kittle for a plus 135 not a bad spot for old Georgie Porgy. I'm going to go with Debo Samuels rushing and receiving. He kind of made a fool of himself last week, punching the fucking special teams guys. So I think he's going to have to redeem himself.

The 49ers are a team full of cocksuckers and dipshits, so I really hate them. George Kittle's fine. I watched him on the Receivers show. Seems like a nice guy, but I also like Debo on that show too. Now Debo, all these guys seem like jackasses, and they're not good anymore. But I do think passing yards are coming in that game. I'm glad DK's back.

I feel, dude, Geno for 250. Geno's my guy. Now, this game is on the road. And I think if you're building touchdown parlays, you've got to put McCaffrey in. I was hesitant last week, but there he was. Yeah, he's I was hesitant last week but there he was yeah yep he's there so uh but I think my favorite play in that game might be the Smith and Jigba 50 and a half over honestly DraftKings has a special where you can take Christian McCaffrey or Kenneth Walker to score the first

touchdown yeah plus 140 yeah it's not bad uh what's next next we have the Falcons at the Broncos. I'm looking forward to another Broncos loss. That excites me. Two teams coming off of a loss here. Yeah, but I think Atlanta's got the better quarterback. Now it's on the road. But as I've told you forever, I don't believe Denver's good. I think their defensive statistics are completely overrated. They're being overvalued defensively in these games.

Atlanta can sling it you know i'm gonna go with kirk his is over 243 and a half drake london is always a good candidate as well for his receiving yards which are usually in the 60s i don't know where it might be lower they're probably going to give denver too much credit and make drake london's number lower than it normally is i'm not sure i think denver's losing again. That excites me. I want to see the wheels completely fall off of this shit. And I'm going to go Kirk Cousins over 243 and a half because that's what my dude does. He's going to sling town. And what do you think? Well, I like to take Bijan for a tut, even though he was on my do not bet list, but he's been pretty good. And I will put Kirk in my two touchdown pass parlay at minus 105.

He did let us down last week. He was one of the – The Saints were unstoppable, obviously. Well, clearly. Or it was more so the Falcons were stoppable because Koo, who wants to beat us with a 60-yarder in week four, decides to miss two chippies last week. Dick.

So, yeah, I think I'm going to take Kirk to throw the two tuds this time. I see you looking up Mooney. He's another good candidate for deep balls, too. Mooney was earlier. They weren't sure if he was going to play, but it says good to go. So, GTG, baby. Hopefully Atlanta wins that game because I want to see Denver completely fall off the face of the earth fuck you sean payton fuck you denver fuck you saints all right who's next this is the other big one the chiefs at the bills um for whatever reason i think the chiefs are going

to continue to win although if the bills are going to beat them it's going to be in the regular season but i'm looking at travis kelsey his numbers shot up it's been in the lows at the high 50s now it's 65 and a half but I mean he's fallen in love with him again like they found their bond together uh now early on you're going to be able to tell if this thing's really working or not because he'll look just out of it there's a Kelsey just looks out of it you're fucked he's a good first quarter yards candidate as well so if you build a first quarter yards candidate as well. So if you build a first quarter yards parlay, he's a solid one to get because his number's usually like 10 or 7.5, 8.5. I also think Kareem Hunt, who didn't score last week, but they tried.

I'm going to go Kareem Hunt to have a TUD as well. So back to Trav. You're telling me that Taylor is playing like a shit ton of shows in Toronto, right? But amazingly, one of those shows isn't on a Sunday. Yeah, no, it's the NFL set this up. It is 100% set up. She set this up too? Because like, doesn't she usually play Friday, Saturday, Sunday?

Plays three nights, no doubt. She's playing Saturday and then back in Toronto Thursday, Friday, Saturday of next week. So if Taylor's there, I mean, travel being a good move. So 65 and a half over for him in that one. Hunt touchdown. And like you said, if this is set up, I can't imagine she's not there. Another important thing.

Why don't they show Haley Steinfeld on the TV? Does she even go to the games? I think she does. And she was in Pitch Perfect 3 or 2 or 2 and 3. She was at the animal shelter some event that Shakir did with dogs. It was her and Josh Allen.

Speaking of the Bills, they're going to be out without Keon Coleman who's a great deep ball threat and they're also going to be without Dalton Kincaid. So what does that mean, Jilly? Does that mean old Dawson Knox might get a couple of catches in this one? He may, but I will say more so Amari Cooper, who is back. Ah, yeah.

We played Amari the first week he was there, and I think we took him for three catches and he had them. And Shakira was quiet last week, too. I feel like he might do something. Very possible. Also, the one-and-a-half catch for Noah Gray. We're back to that one again? Well, Nora, I went with the other dude usually, the one and a half catch for Noah Gray. We're back to that one again. Well, Nora, I went with the other dude usually, the other white dude.

I went with Justin Watson once, and he didn't catch it at all, so he's on my list. So I'm going with the other white. Yep. So Noah Gray is not a bad candidate for two. He and Travi. What's next? Hold on.

I'm looking to see how many times Noah Gray here. He had two catches last week. He didn't have anything in Tampa Bay, and then three, and then four, and then two, and then four, and then three. Give me Noah Gray. Over one and a half? Is that plus money? No, but I'll take it. All right.

Let's see what it was. It is minus 130. So that's a parlay. Yeah. Peace. Parlay peace. And I guess what is the last one? Are we at Sunday night now?

Sunday night. Bangles and Chargers. And thank the good Lord for whoever decided to flex this one in over the Jets and Colts. Thank you, NBC friends. Passing yards. I don't know. I'm going to guess it'll be minus money for 500 passing yards. You might want to take 550 or 600.

I've been loving what we're getting out of my boy Herbert. And I love what Joe does so I think all I wrote down well I also wrote down another one that I love Jamar 79 and a half like what the fuck are we doing here like like come on like dude you want let's take an NFL issue just two-leg parlay both Jamar and Justin Jefferson over 80 yards apiece it'll get you like you know minus or to be like plus 250. Like both of those guys are going to coast over. Both of them are going to coast over their first quarter receiving yards as well.

Like what the fuck are we doing? 79 and a half for Jamar. And this is not just an overreaction to the fact that he had 900 the other night against Baltimore. This fucking dude's a beast. That's his number one dude. T. Higgins is back. It's going to make things easier for Jamar. Come on, 79 and a half. Come on, baby. What are we doing? Yeah, these guys his number one dude. Tee Higgins is back. It's going to make things easier for Jamar. Come on, 79 and a half.

Come on, baby. What are we doing? Yeah, these guys are desperate to win. Jamar wants to win. Like he said, he's like, I don't understand how I'm playing this well and we're not winning. So Jamar is going to go off again. And I think Tee Higgins may get a touchdown,

like a little welcome back gift from Joey B, who I will take to throw two tuds. Let me try to guess his passing yards. And I think they're going to overvalue the defense of the Chargers. The Chargers are another one of those teams who haven't played anybody really, so their statistics are overinflated, kind of like Washington. Everybody's talking about Washington and how good they are, and it's like, well, who the fuck have they played?

Well, all the teams they played beat them. I think the Chargers, who I like, I think they're going to be overinflated because they're playing the Arizona Cardinals. They're playing – give me the Chargers schedule. They've played the Raiders. I just recall – these are just games I recall watching. They played the Rams, I believe. They haven't played outstanding football teams this year,

so I think they're overvaluing them. They've played the raiders yeah the panthers okay the stillers oh well that's a good one the chiefs okay the broncos and the broncos mean the broncos suck the cardinals the cardinals are fine the saints the saints are dog shit the browns the browns are maybe below dog shit the titans and the titans might be like they might be dog shit on like on top of dog shit so again like I like the Chargers and I like Herbert and I think he's been better better better throughout the year but I think they overvalue their defense based on who they've played when you've played the

fuck like when half your games are the Panthers the Raiders the Saints the fucking Browns come on man and did they play did they also play the Steelers before Rusty took over? Yeah. Okay, so give me a fucking break. So the defense is overrated. Come on, Jamar 7. Take Jamar up to a hundo. Justin Jefferson. Build this parlay really quick.

Justin Jefferson 100, Jamar Chase 100. I want alt receiving yards for those guys. And maybe BT as well. I don't know. We'll see what Brian Tompkins. You said a catch from Mack. Forget I said it, Jilly. It as well. I don't know. We'll see what Brian Tomlin... You said a catch from Mac. Forget I said it, Jilly. It was stupid.

I got excited. So 100 for Jamar is plus 200. Oh, God. And that means it's going to be plus 200 for Justin. That means you're going to be looking at like plus 600, plus 700. Like, for those two dudes to get 100,

that's going to be like plus 1,000. Plus 600, 700, something like that. The parlay with just those two for a hundred is plus seven twenty five plus seven twenty five put twenty bucks on it like some low like again even by themselves it's eighty yards to each get eighty is going to be like plus two sixty

plus two fifty like those are two of the best receivers in the league like what are we doing and like everybody's blowing the Chargers defense give me a fucking break Joe's going to throw for three bills in this fucking game you didn't guess his passing number yet uh i'm gonna say it's going to be 277 and a half 265 and a half okay take the over there's no reason to not take joe burrow's passing yardage over and let me try to guess i'm gonna then guess the one for herbert herbert's numbers have been going up, up, up lately, and they're usually in the

238 and a half. Really? Fuck, I'm a god, aren't I? I know Justin Herbert. My god. Will Disley, who we learned about last week. Will Disick? Scott Disick? Will Disley. Was Will Disley another Georgia dude?

Did we learn that last week? Where did Will Disley? Because we know that Ladd is and Brock Bowers. Is Disley another Georgia dude? Did we learn that last week? Where did Will Disley? Because we know that Ladd is and Brock Bowers. Is Disley another one of these Georgia jamokes that no longer have to catch passes from the dingus that I need to win, by the way, tomorrow? Disley played at Washington.

Ah, that's where he's from. My bad. So it's Bowers and the other one, Ladd. He was also Montana's Gatorade High School Player of the Year. Good for him. There's only like eight people in the state of Montana. And I used to live there, so I know these fucking things. But I do like the idea of the T. Higgins Tud. I feel like he's hungry for it.

We'll take a look at the Texan stuff on Monday or Sunday. Hell, we may do another pod tomorrow. We might do another pod tonight uh because we're doing another pod tonight it's a wine night and a weekend dude it's a wine night and we might win on on we got to see what happens in the Tyson fight we got to give people a Tyson fight recap so we're gonna get this one up for you now and what time is it now it is 8 22 is what time it is so uh we're gonna make sure we get this up for you guys because like maybe lesbian rachel the other day was sending me messages like where's prop to you drop i love it so i'm getting up early

for you guys this week uh you guys are great and who knows we might reconvene for another weekend podcast then another one and another one we'll see