The Josh Innes Show - Prop Til You Drop Week 6

Episode Date: October 12, 2024

After a red hot week 5, we are back with another edition of Prop Til You Drop. Keep in mind that props are just fantasy stats. So these can help you with your fantasy team as well. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Howdy, Jamokes! How the hell are ya? It is Friday night, almost Sunday. It's about 11, or what the fuck am I talking about? It's Friday night, almost Saturday, and it's about 11.10, watching some college football. Just got a bit of a miracle. I don't know if it's gonna work out or not, but I had a guy to throw for some passing yards in the college games named Sam Levitt from Arizona State. Took a big hit. Looked like he was dead, but he has risen. Now, how will he play? I need 100 more passing yards from him. Not that any of this matters to any of you, but I'm just, look, we're in this relationship together. This is what comes with our relationship. I talk to you about my bets. That's what we do. Now, since it's halftime, we're going to do a prop till you drop. I've got my list of prop bets for the weekend. We already picked the games yesterday.

So now we have got prop till you drop for this, the sixth week of the NFL. And we will start with Jacksonville and Chicago, another game that is in London. Jilly, do you have any thoughts on this? I was actually just talking about that. Actually, my one parlay I won last week was with the Bears and the Panthers just because there was a boost on DraftKings,

so I just played it for the hell of it. So maybe I like betting on the Bears. Maybe. I mean, I've taken Brian Thomas Jr. every single week this season. He's never let me down for Jacksonville, so I would probably go with him again. And I like Rome, Roma Dunce.

You know what's pretty wacky is, I was listening to the radio today, and they were talking about potential Rookie of the Year, and right now the obvious favorite would be Jaden. But when you start listing the dudes who could be R rookie of the year, there are like four LSU players that are arguably in the top six or seven players

for potential rookie of the year because you've got at least three. Because you've got Jaden, you've got Malik, assuming they ever get healthy, he would be a guy that would be in contention for that. And Brian Thomas Jr. is a guy that would be in contention for that. There Brian Thomas Jr. is a guy that would be in contention for that. There's at least three LSU players that you could look at and go, hey, those guys could win. Now, right now it's not close. The obvious selection for Rookie of the Year would be Jaden Daniels.

Now, he could fall off a cliff, and who knows, Caleb could play his balls off, and Caleb could be the Rookie of the Year. I don't know. Maybe Drake May will come in against the Texans, and that will lead to like 14 weeks of glory or 13 weeks of glory. Maybe he'll win the rookie of the year. But right now, as we stand going into the sixth week of the NFL, you could argue that out of the top five guys who could be the rookie of the year, at least two of them are LSU guys, Brian Thomas and JD. And you could argue that Malik was balling before he got hurt, too.

So there you go. Now, I'm going to go with Brian Thomas' longest reception over 22.5 yards. He's hit that three of the five weeks. And you were just telling me that multiple members of the secondary are out for Chicago, which could aid in this. Likely out. Well, either. I don't care if they're in, out, whatever.

My man Brian Thomas, until proven otherwise, gets open and makes big catches. Three of the five weeks he's been an NFL player, he's had a catch longer than 22.5 yards, and we're not going to have it stop yet. I think it's been two weeks in a row. I've called it two weeks in a row, and it's happened. Well, I would just take his number, too, which is 55.5. I would take over that for Brian Thomas,

and I would take over 40 for Brian Thomas, and I would take over 40 and a half for Roma Dunce. I would also say DeAndre Swift touchdown. Over the last two weeks, he's scored in back-to-back weeks. They're starting to feed him a little bit more. There was that stretch to start the season where he was nonexistent, but they're playing much better offensively. They're getting more comfortable offensively, and he has scored twice in the last two weeks.

And he can catch. And he can catch. And he can catch. So last week, I don't think he hit his receptions number, but... Really? I mean, he was... He had... Like, I'm looking at this because that was one of my parlays I was going to take. I think he only had two.

Yeah, he only had two, but he went for 47 yards. I meant his... I said his receptions. That's because that's what I played. That's his receiving yards. Yeah. Well, I was looking at receiving yards. He had 47 last week, 72 before that, 22 and

24, and I think his number this week is 20 and a half. So that's not a bad one either. Speaking of Jayden Daniels, Washington is at Baltimore. This feels like the week that maybe finally Washington is not revealed as some sort of fraud. They've played well and they deserve the games they've won. I think Baltimore is a different animal. You're on the road. You're facing a very good defense. I called it last time that Jaden Daniels threw a pick. I said he's going to throw a pick.

This week, I think he's going to throw a pick as well. I'm going to go Jaden Daniels' interception in the Washington-Baltimore game. I was trying to just kind of quickly prop until I drop along with you because I, again, did not write any out because I was busy working while I used to work at the park. Don't make it, look, I was putting in work, betting on finish hockey, and I'm up like 400 bucks today thanks to finish

hockey, and if this dickhead Sam Leavitt is healthy and throws for another 101 yards, you want to talk about a hell of a play. So I had a boost from, uh, what? give me derrick henry 80 yards rushing okay that's certainly playable his touchdown number isn't very valuable what if you just took 80 yards and a touchdown that'd be a pretty solid little one-two punch for old derrick henry i think that'd be what i'm gonna do if you took 80 you can get in at minus 130

and then add the tut it wouldn't be great but it it would be solid. Yeah, I would be plus money. But I was I've got this bet with Sam Levitt going on right now. He's the quarterback at Arizona State. And I had a boost. OK, plus 270. And I've got a boost for this Arizona State game, which is 50 percent. So for him to throw for 200 yards was already like plus 200 something for some reason. And then 50 percent made already like plus 200 something for some reason.

And then 50% made it like plus 400. So 100 bucks wins 400 and pays out 500. So that's what I'm rooting for right now. Also, I lied. I had something else in my bet slip. It's actually minus 105. Not a ton of value. But still, it's almost even money. Tampa Bay is at New Orleans.

You have got the new era. This is going to be the start of a new saints era because Spencey Ratley, the Ratley man's going to get in there and he's going to show you what he's all about. And they're going to say, Derek Carr sucks. We got to get rid of him. When Spencer Rattler takes over the universe against Tampa this weekend, that said, I believe Chris Alave is the answer in this game because they've talked a lot about how Alave was a non-factor in the game against Kansas City. And they've asked Spencer Rattler about Alave. He says this man needs to get the ball, so they're going to force him the ball.

They're going to make sure he gets his. 48.5 is a very low number for a guy that, I mean, I think every game this year has had other than last game where he only had like six yards every game this year he's had a catch of 19 to 20 yards so he can get half of it damn near on one play and they're going to try to get it to him so I'm going to go Chris Alave over 48 and a half yards receiving I also like Shahid a lot but what do you think about the Spencer Rattler 188 and a half passing yards i mean it seems like a very low number and they're gonna have to throw because my guess is they're gonna be losing my concern is i think he's gonna be running for his life because the saints offensive line is

decimated i keep hearing people that are un like uneducated on the saints continue to say well uh the saints offenses started to suck. They were a fluke. No, if they were healthy, they'd still be very good. The problem is their offensive line is terrible because their offensive line has like three dudes out, including the center. So that's why the offensive line has been terrible, and I think Spencer's going to be running for his life.

Well, you can get him for over 16 rushing yards or plus 100. I don't know. Just because he's running for his life doesn't mean he's going to get there but he's i think he's i think that's what he has that derrick card doesn't have is that i think he's going to be able to be at least somewhat elusive i did see that i think rashad white is likely out so this means we could have a big game for my friend bucky irving yeah you're and uh he's certainly a guy that's going to get some carries. What is his actual, not his yardage number, but his carries number?

It's usually somewhere in that 9.5 range, I think, for Bucky. That wouldn't be a bad play. It's up to 14.5 this week. That's a big number, but if they're in control of this game, which they very well could be, they might start running the ball. Cleveland's at Philadelphia. A.J. Brown is back for the first time, I think, since week one because he didn't play against the Saints, so he got hurt. Week one hasn't been in.

I'm going to take, coming off a bye, Phillies desperate for a W. There's pressure on everybody. They're playing Cleveland, who's a disaster. They're a big favorite against Cleveland. I'm going to take A.J. Brown over five and a half receptions. See, I'm going Devontae Smith for his receiving yards

total. I don't know what it is, but I always play Devontae, and now that he's back, I will go with him. I'm going to guess it's probably somewhere in the 50s. If he's seven and a half, yep, I'm in. Alright. Let's see. The Colts are at Tennessee. The Colts, for some fucking reason, are not playing Joe Flacco. It's technically a game-time decision.

Look, people can keep trying to tell me that Anthony Richardson's going to be good. Fine. He ain't good right now. The guy that gives the Colts the better chance to win, if winning is what matters, is Joe Flacco. But he's probably not going to play. Tennessee has an advantage in this game for no other reason that the Colts' defense is abysmal, but keep in mind it's Will Levis throwing passes. So here's what I think. There's a couple of plays I like in this game. One, I think they're going to try to get a lot of Tony Pollard in this game

for Tennessee, and Indianapolis stinks on both sides defensively they stink in the secondary they stink up front so I'm gonna go Tony Pollard 85 and a half rushing and receiving yards combo and one of the big storylines in Nashville this week has been Calvin Ridley he's been asked about how the last two games he's only been targeted once in each game tell me about it as someone who played him the last two weeks well i'm gonna hop on board with this i'm gonna say that will levis forces a couple in there to him to try to get him going it's a very low total 46 and a half i'm gonna take calvin ridley over 46 and a half receiving yards i like the tony pollard tud for plus 100 that's a dude anytime you can get a guy like that at plus money for a touchdown that's solid

and then they also have an option on DraftKings where you can take Calvin Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins either one of them to score a Tud for minus 115 that's not bad uh let's see here Houston and New England um I'm just gonna go simple Rookie is starting, and I think the rookie is going to throw an interception. So I'm going to take Drake May interception. I think I'm going to take whatever Tank Dell's receiving yards are. It's relatively low. I think it's in the 40s or the low 50s. I think 54, if I'm not mistaken.

It's a relatively low number. You know, I also love an Austin Hooper receiving yards, too, for the Patriots. And he's there sitting there again at 10 and a half. So I would take that. But I have faith in my boy Tank here. His number's 53 and a half. But Stephon Diggs has had a lot of distractions this week, too. No, Diggs could be a solid one, though. And by distractions, you mean that there was something on the internet that said that he, like, sexually assaulted a dude or something?

And was fucking Cardi B when she was eight months pregnant. A lot of sexual stuff involving Stefan Diggs. But he seems like the type that would be bothered by that kind of shit. Or maybe he'll ball. I could see a situation where he has to get more action because Nico's out. He could have a game where he has, I think his number was five and a half catches. I could see a scenario where he gets to six. And his number is always low. It's in the 50s as well i think so dalton schultz at three and a half

catches for plus money isn't bad either no i agree uh arizona is at green bay i got a couple of thoughts first of all i'm gonna stick with jayden reed over 62 and a half yards because jayden reed he goes out and he just catches balls that's what he does i'm gonna say jordan love under half an interception so i don't believe he's gonna throw an interception although he's thrown an interception in every game this year i believe i'm going to take under jordan love interceptions and i'm going to take kyler murray over half an interception green bay second in the league in interceptions with nine. And Arizona's due for a letdown after beating the 49ers last week.

I think they're going to look terrible this week. I think that's fair. So I'm going to go Jordan Love to not throw a pick. Kyler Murray to throw a pick. And Jaden Reed over 62 and a half. I'm kind of intrigued by the Romeo Dobbs situation. Because he is back now after whatever the hell happened last week. He's like, yeah, I should have handled that better.

And his team's like, yeah, no, that's our boy. That's Rome. We support him. So to me, that means they're going to get him involved and he's probably going to have a nice little game. I think that's fair. All right. Chargers at Denver. Here's something fascinating.

Justin Herbert's total is 180 and a half yards. And you'd go, how? I'll tell you how. This motherfucker hasn't thrown for 180 yards in a game all year. Harbaugh's his coach now. They don't throw. Well, it's just he's been a mess, but I'm going to go with it this time. I'm going to herbert over 180 and a half yards it's low enough for me to go i know this dude can sling so i'm gonna give it a shot god i truly don't know anything about the chargers but yeah well that seems legit look denver and and

the chargers very boring pittsburgh at the raiders i'm gonna keep it simple oh jk dobbins for a tud for denver or san die Yeah, he scores a lot. And it's plus 120 for an anytime Tud from him. So give me J.K. Dobbins for the Tud. I'm going to go Pittsburgh and the Raiders. We're going to go Aiden O'Connell, who's getting the start this weekend. We're going to go Aiden to throw a pick. Now, I'm assuming I would also consider his passing yards

only because there's no way they go back to Gardner Minshew after making this move. At least not in the first game unless Aiden O'Connell gets hurt. So his passing yards, I think, are certainly a solid play. But I'd go Aiden O'Connell to throw an interception. Well, there's also your friend Pat Fryermuth, who again is sitting at three and a half catches. I think last week he finally didn't get to his number. I think he only had three catches last week so i think the the streak ended it's plus 115 if you can get back to four catches well that's not bad

uh let's see i love i do love brock bauer's reception uh receiving yards too there you go uh atlanta's at carolina i'm going to ride with darnell mooney of the Falcons to have a longest reception of over 19 and a half yards in four or five weeks he's had a catch longer than 19 and a half 41 26 36 and 24 yards for the longest catch in those four games so I'm going to go with Darnell Mooney over 19 and a half yards for his longest reception this is a we don't bet Bijan Robinson household anymore, so I will not fuck with Bijan. But I feel like Kirk and Mr. Drake London have had a nice chemistry lately. Yep.

I mean, Drake London had like 12 catches or something the other night. So it might take him for a Tud and his receiving yards. All right. Let's see. Detroit's at Dallas. I think this is going to be a game like most games for Dallas where

they're not able to run the ball because they don't have a good running back. They're going to have to throw a ton and they're probably going to be losing.

So I'm going to take Dak over 282 and a half passing yards and I'm going to take Jalen Tolbert over 46.5 receiving yards, hoping that his ball feels better, that his nut didn't explode, and I'm going to take him to have over 3.5 receptions. So that's what I'm going for.

I might just go with David Montgomery first touchdown again. That's your boy. Yes, I forgot all about Detroit's side of things. Montgomery is always a solid play for the touchdown. I like this parlay that's on DraftKings that Dave Portnoy put together as far as touchdown bets. Now, he's got I mean, they have Mixon available, so that's

a good sign because Vegas knows. So if Joe Mixon plays, that's exciting. But Portnoy has Mixon to score a Tud, Aminra to score a Tud, and A.J. Brown to score a Tud, and that's plus 1131, and that seems pretty solid. I like that.

That's not bad. Cincinnati at the Giants. I'm going to keep up with what I do every week for Cincinnati, and they're probably going to sling a lot.

Jamar Chase, longest reception, over 24 and a half yards. I'd say that's pretty solid. I also like, who's the tight end for the Giants now that Malik is out? He's been catching a lot. Oh, what's his name?

Darius Slayton. He's a tight end, right? Yeah, I think so. I know very little about the Giants. I just don't care. I'm taking Darius Slayton. His receiving yards are at 49 and a half so they're much higher than they have been but who else is he gonna throw it to and the the final one buffalo

at the jets oh we already talked about mine last night i think i'm just gonna follow you i'm going aaron rogers over 217 and a half yards that's conservative. Yeah, so again. I see what I say. It's like 300 and two touchdowns. And yes, and the value is very high if that were to happen, so it's certainly possible. And Jets money line. I'll throw that in there too. All right, so there you go. College football Saturday.

Hopefully LSU wins so we have something exciting when we go to Arkansas next week. That's what scares me is I know our track record with going to LSU games and something always happens to let us down. Like didn't they lose last year before we went to Mizzou? I mean, yeah, I think they had lost a couple before we went to Mizzou. The game right before we went to Mizzou, didn't they lose? That may have been when they played Ole Miss, I think. I think they may have lost to Ole Miss prior to that game

because I know they had lost to... Yes, exactly. So we were all excited, and then they lost to Ole Miss. So again, I feel like... But by the time I got to that game, I was really locked into it. We almost left in the first quarter. Yeah, but then we rallied, and I was into it. And we didn't even drink that game.

No, because I'm like, we're not spending the fucking night again in Columbia. We're going home. But I want LSU to win, obviously. But I feel like we're going to get lane trained again. I don't. We're winning tomorrow. We're at home. And my only reason behind that

is because we're going to see them next weekend. I don't buy it. If we were not going to see them in Arkansas, if I canceled this Airbnb right now, then LSU would win. I don't buy it. We're winning. I to see them in Arkansas, if I canceled this Airbnb right now, then LSU would win. No, I don't buy it. We're winning. I think we're winning tomorrow. We're going to be super hyped, probably in the top five

when it's all said and done after this. We're at home. It's Saturday night in Death Valley. Finally a good fucking football game on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge. I'm ready to go. I'm coming home early. We're getting out here early tomorrow to get good and lubed up for the game. So we're locked into it.

LSU is winning this damn thing tomorrow. And it's going to give me something to be excited about. I think Brian Kelly is something like 20 and 3 coming off a bye or some number like that. I forgot what it was. But LSU is winning at home. Fuck Lane. Fuck Ole Miss. We're winning this shit.

And I'm looking forward to that. It's going to be quite the celebration on Saturday night. Tons of shots, LSU scoring points. It's going to be fun. Tomorrow's actually a very good college football day because you've got Oregon and Ohio State at Autzen Stadium. That'll be good. So there's some good shit going down on the college

football. Maybe I'll do a pod after LSU wins tomorrow. When LSU wins tomorrow, celebratory pod. I don't know. But anyway, you guys kick ass. We love you. Got to get back to my gambling.