The Josh Innes Show - Random Thoughts: Betting Weekend

Episode Date: October 31, 2022

Hey Gang! I had a wild roller coaster ride as it relates to sports betting. Here are my stories. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hey, here's one for you. Nice weekend football. Let me tell you something. I am actually excited about the Tennessee-Georgia game coming up this weekend. I've really enjoyed watching Georgia. Well, not Georgia. I don't really give a shit about Georgia. I've enjoyed watching Tennessee play.

And their offense is fun and they score a lot of points and they've won me some money with their awesome offense. And this game with Georgia is one of the biggest games that we've had in the regular season and forever, so it's awesome. I love it. I can't wait. And it's weird to get that excited about teams that I don't have any real interest in. Like, I'm not a fan of Tennessee or Georgia for that matter.

But I have an interest. A, because Tennessee is the team around here. So many people are into it. But I'm also intrigued by the just big games. Like, this is a huge game for the college football playoff. And it's a great Saturday too, right, because you've got LSU and Alabama at night, which LSU is probably going to get their asses kicked, but so be it. And then you've got this Tennessee-Georgia game at 2.30, so it's a good weekend.

Pro football-wise, there was some good games this weekend, and there was some money to be had on some life. Let me tell you about an incredible hit I had last—I mean, just really remarkable when you think about it. I did a couple of live plays in the Packers game last night. One was—and these were both late in the game. After I had already said it, I had already made one play early in the game, and I hate to make early plays in games. My strategy is live betting. That's what I like to do.

On occasion, I will do plays in college or pro in any sport where it's before. For example, I got a ball buster for you. I had a ball buster loss in a game. It was a four-leg parlay. My God, this parlay was the ultimate dick punch. I mean, it was, I mean, I've had some dick punches. This one wasn't, I guess, as bad as that Grizzlies one where a guy's got to make one out of two free throws for me to win 500 bucks. That was a super dick punch because that was an immediate one play could win or lose it for you. Two free throws and

you knew it was there. This is one where it never got to where it needed to be in the final leg. But the way it got to still being alive in the final leg is bananas. So I had a parlay going. And now I've got to find the actual details of this parlay. Because this parlay was just legitimately solid. And I thought, okay, this is going to hit. So let me see here. This was Saturday night.

It was college football. I bet way too much. I'm just loaded with stuff here. So last night, it was Saturday night. Okay, get this. Dig on this. It was a plus $1,105 parlay. All right?

The parlay was Tennessee Volunteers team total over 37.5. Baylor-Texas Tech match over 60.5. Mississippi, that's Ole Miss and A&M, over 55.5. And UCLA to score 40-plus points in their game. $50 would have won like 600-something bucks on this. Solid play. And for most of the night, this play looked like it had no chance in hell of hitting. I'm looking at it like Tennessee, they jumped out really fast, and they eventually tacked on late, and they got theirs relatively easy. Okay. Baylor and Texas Tech, that was a nothing game for about the first 25 minutes of it.

That game was, I believe it was 3-0 after 1 in that game. It was a nothing. It was 3-0 after 1 and 17-3 after 2. And remember, I need 60 points in that game to hit. Then magically, it goes back and forth in the third quarter. There's 21 points. Okay, still a chance. It a chance not a great chance but it's a chance Baylor ends up scoring 14 in the fourth quarter and I need another touchdown to hit the over Texas Tech has a chance to throw a touchdown like from the five yard line they throw an interception in the end zone it looks like it's

dead fine Baylor's got the ball late in the game, and it looks like, all right, fine. Nothing's going to come of this. It is what it is. I've got to take the L. A miracle happens with less than a minute to go or right around a minute to go. It's third down. They're at like the 20-yard line. They're just running plays to end the game.

Somehow Baylor's running back bursts through the line and barely gets into the end zone, but he scores. Overhits. So that's the second leg through the line and barely gets into the end zone, but he scores. Over hits. So that's the second leg of the parlay that's hit. Over 60.5 points, Baylor-Texas Tech. They scored 52 points in that game. Barely got the over, but we did. Super.

The game after that, Texas A&M. That game looked like it had no chance of doing anything. But a garbage touchdown by Texas A&M late gets the over. Okay. Three legs have hit. Neither one of those games looked like they had a chance in hell of hitting their over. They both did. My two favorite plays of the day yesterday. These were the two that I loved. Over Tennessee. Tennessee was over 37.5.

Total points. They got that. Stanford. UCLA. UCLA, total points as a team, 40.5, so they needed 41. This felt like the lock. Those are my two favorites. Tennessee, team over 37.5. Tennessee team over 37.5.

UCLA over 40.5. Those were two of my favorites. The Tennessee one was my favorite of the day by far. I really liked UCLA. I almost just did those two, but I added a couple legs to add some more value to the play so I didn't have to bet as much. UCLA, early in the game, gets out to like 24 points right out of the chute. This feels like, okay, this is a home run. It's done.

They scored 24 points very quickly. They were up 24-6 at half, but here's why 24-6 wasn't good. They had the ball at the five-yard line near the end of the half, and not only did they not get a touchdown, they took a sack and missed a field goal. So 24-6 should have at least been 27-6. Then they stall offensively in the second half, but somehow bust two big plays to get to 38. Then never get the damn ball again.

Or they get it one time, I think, with a backup quarterback who did nothing. They stall at 38. So that epic play that should have been ends up being a nothing burger of a play, and it's three out of four, nil. I also started taking some. Then I got mad. And the more I drink and the angrier I get, the dumber I start betting.

Like I'll just bet on whatever's happening. So I bet random stuff on like Nevada football at midnight or Chinese basketball. So I had a free play on, on FanDuel because, um, I signed into this bonus thing where you get, um, you get your money back for your next four bets. So if they lose, so I lost them and I had about $800 in free bets. And I just kept losing. I went from having like $4,500. Actually, I had $3,800 in my account, and it went down to about $1,000. I think I was down to $1,000.

I'm betting random stuff. I'm melting down, basically. Just it's a meltdown. So I say, screw it. I got to take this free bet. And it's like 1 o'clock in the morning on Saturday. I've been drinking rum and beer and everything and I see this Chinese League basketball game and I like the Chinese CBA. I enjoy it and it's good to bet and I see this team is just scoring a ton. There's like Kendal or something

and they're scoring a ton yet their team total over for the game is really low. And I go, well, I think I'm going to take their team over. So I took the team over and I said, I'm going to put in all of this free bet. Okay, cool. Free bet, 700-something bucks. You don't get the money back for the free bet, only the winning. So a win gets me 800 bucks or so.

I doze off and fall asleep while this game is happening. Wake up, check my phone, it hit, it hit easily. So I'm back up to about 1,700 in the account. Okay, fine. Start the day with a bet on Russ Wilson, a live bet right when I wake up. Next pass, he throws it 50 yards, so he hits his over. Bang, I'm up to close to 2,000. I go back and forth on a couple.

I'm hanging out around 1,700, whatever it is. And then I find a couple of Finnish hockey games or Swiss hockey games, and I build a couple of live parlays with them, like two here, whatever. And somehow every one of these parlays hit. Like, it was nuts. And on what was really about a grand total of $300 in bets maybe, I hit all three of these wacky parlays with empty net goals and everything, and I go from about $1,500, $1,600 in my account to $4,400 in a matter of like 10 minutes.

Like, the shit gets wild. Like I know that not everybody has time to do this because people have lives and kids. They can't just sit around on their phone all day and treat live betting like day trading. But fuck, when it's really moving and you can really focus on live bets in certain sports, you can really crush. My downfall is that I tend to, like I lose a couple and then I just overreact and I start betting a lot or I drink too much and I bet too much. Or I really bet too, like, I bet too much and by too much I mean not money-wise, but the number of bets are too much.

When I take my time and just really go with stuff that I think is going to hit, I'm a fucking G. Like, I am a legendary gambler. The problem is I can't do that. My spurs get to jingling and jangling, and I end up doing dumb shit. But last night, so I'd been losing a little bit last night. I'd gone from about $4,500 to about $3,700 I was down to. And by the way, in my DraftKings account, I still have that $800 from that parlay we

hit the other day, the bet we made with the Grizzlies. So I have about 800 in that account, and I had about 3,700 in the FanDuel account. And I'm getting really ticked off. I keep losing. So I do a typical me, which is I had 3,700. I took 700, and I bet it on Josh Allen's over of $209.5. It was the third quarter when I did this. I said, fuck this shit. I'm angry. $700. Josh Allen over $209.5. Then I go to the other account and put $400 on Aaron Rodgers. His was over $146 or $180. I forgot what the number actually was. It was 140-something because at the time he had like 70 yards. So Josh Allen makes a couple of big throws. He needs 40-some-odd yards. I think he needed 44 yards.

The ball was at the 48. He makes a scramble, throws a little completion. Guy runs all the way down to like, I don't know, the four-yard line. Picks up like 40 yards. I'm five yards away from getting this, but he's too close to the end zone for me to get five yards. I'm like, if they score here, I'm screwed. If they get a field goal, I'm screwed.

Well, a miracle happens, and Josh Allen throws an interception. So they're still up by 17. A-Rodge still has a little bit of hope. I also have hope because they're at the five-yard line that A-Rodge, if he completes a couple passes, maybe I hit the over with A-Rodge still has a little bit of hope. I also have hope because they're at the five-yard line that A-Rodge, if he completes a couple passes, maybe I hit the over with A-Rodge. Super. A-Rodge marches down the field, makes a couple of big throws, picks his up easily.

Great. So I've won that one. Now what I need to have happen is Josh Allen to complete one pass for five yards. They're up by ten, so they're going to have to throw. They don't want to give the ball back with five, six minutes. Allen comes out like second play of the drive, completes the pass. Boom. Dunzo.

Both of them hit. That accounts back up to like 4,300. The other accounts back up to about 800 or 1,000, whatever it is. And boom. It was a solid little weekend. So you guys should try the gist of them. Like it's just live bets but you got to find the right live bets and parlay them like i don't know i have way too much time like i wonder if like i'm

a savant because i think i'm like i kind of am a savant at this stuff but i'm just not good at maintaining the money because i get angry but if i really locked myself into it i think i would just bankrupt fan duel and draft kings and all of them or i might not but i think i could