The Josh Innes Show - Random Thoughts: Correa's Giant Deal Is Iffy

Episode Date: December 14, 2022

Good for Carlos Correa. Your boy got tons of cash and I don't hate him for it. Get yours. But, is he actually one of baseball's elite players? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Well, Carlos Correa, he's getting paid a lot by the Giants. 13 years, $350 million front-loaded or rather back-loaded deal, so you're cheaper and have more flexibility. I'm not one of these people who cares what a guy makes. It ain't my money. And people always find a way. If teams want to find a way to spend money, they'll do it. If they don't want to spend money, they won't.

That's the way this world works. People get so caught up in salary caps and everything else. If teams want to make it work and players want to make things work, they always do. That's more of an NFL thing than, say, baseball. If the Royals wanted to spend money, the Royals could spend money. They just choose not to. Every team has the money. There are billionaires that run all of these teams. And you can tell me, well, Josh, there's more money that comes in for media, for instance, from, say, a San Francisco or an L.A. than a Pittsburgh. Sure.

But they're still owned by billionaires, and they've got money. And if they want to spend money and take a chance, they can spend money and take a chance. Not everybody does it. Now, as far as Correa goes, I'm not trying to put my hands in anybody's pocket, touch anybody's money. Ain't my thing. Not what I'm here to do. Not interested. Good for him for getting 350. Good for Bryce Harper getting 400 mil or whatever his was. Good for Verlander getting $45 million a year to pitch in New York at 40-something years of age. More power to you. Get yours. I want to get as much as I can get. You want to get as much as you want to get. I understand it and I get it, and I'm not saying no if I'm Carlos Correa. But I will ask this, who is Carlos Correa relative to the other guys that get these big deals? People talk about Bryce Harper, and I wasn't always a big Bryce Harper guy, but what he's

done in Philadelphia, and particularly the last two years, has been undeniable. The guy has changed the franchise there, and now they're a competitive team that went to the World Series this year. But what is Bryce Harper? Well, Bryce Harper was a rookie of the year. Bryce Harper's won two MVPs. He's been to the All-Star Game six times. He's won a Silver Slugger a couple of times. That's who Bryce Harper is. And by the way, he's had years where he's led the league in home runs, led the league in walks multiple times, led the league in doubles before. Also a pretty damn good fielder.

That's who he is. So when you look at the money that a guy like Bryce Harper gets, I can look at the easily distinguished metrics, which might be too peripheral for some or too on the surface for some, but I will. I look at that and I say, I can see tangible things that a common baseball person can grab onto and go, okay, I get it. MVPs, all-star games, silver sluggers, leading the league in home runs. I can see those things and go, that guy's worth that. He's never led the league in RBIs, whatever, fine.

But he's led the league in homers before. He's led the league in doubles before. He's led the league in runs scored before. His OPS is bananas. His OPS plus is bananas. All these stats, the stats that are easy to grasp and the ones that are more difficult to grasp for the common person. He gets intentionally walked a ton. He works a ton of walks. He gets on base. The stats that are easy to grasp and the ones that are more difficult to grasp for the common person.

He gets intentionally walked a ton. He works a ton of walks. He gets on base. That's who a Bryce Harper is. If you say, Josh, do you think Bryce Harper's worth $400 million? No, but who is, right? Mike Trout. You can look at Mike Trout's numbers, and just from an individual number standpoint,

Mike Trout's won, what, three MVPs? The guy bops a ton of home runs I can look at what what Mike Trout does especially what he did in the prime of his career and go that's something I can latch on to that's something I can grab that's something I can hold that's something that feels tangible all right if you're ready to win some real cash during the basketball playoffs, you got to check out pick six from DraftKings. When it comes to basketball payouts, DraftKings pick six posterizes the competition, including prize picks. It's a very simple concept. Hit all your picks and score higher minimum payouts on pick six, plus even more cash if you outscore the competition. Pick six is available in most states, including Missouri, California, Texas, Georgia, and more, and I absolutely love it.

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Pick six not available everywhere, including New York and Ontario. Voidware prohibited. One per new customer. Bonus award. It is non-withdrawable pick six credits that expire in 14 days. Limited time offer. See terms at picksix.draftkings.com slash promos. I can't do that for Carlos Correa. Like, I am truly fascinated by how Correa became this guy

that gets a 13-year $350 million deal. I'd argue he's not an elite offensive player. He's a good offensive player. In the postseason, he's had some major moments. He's an outstanding fielder. Okay, but if you just want to look at tangible things, peripheral things, and say, what does Carlos Correa do that is spectacular that stands out to you? He won the Rookie of the Year, one year finished top five in the MVP, two All-star games. Never once has he led the league in any offensive category other than sacrifice flies. He's done that once.

Home runs, never hit more than 26. Never driven in 100 runs. And again, some of that circumstance, I get that. Never led the league in anything. Career batting average, 279. Solid in today's game when guys hit 198 and they stay in the league for a decade. So I get that. But never been a league leader in any of these things. Outstanding defender. But you don't pay $350 million because a guy plays a solid shortstop. You're looking for a guy to generate offense for you. Most importantly, the dude is often injured. Now, is it fair to call him injury prone? I don't know that I'd do that.

Some of those injuries are just bad luck. What year was it? Was it 2018, I think? Or 2019? What year was it that he took a fastball up and in and it hit him in the wrist and it broke his hand, I think, for a while? Like, those are just bad breaks. But the guy has a notably bad back.

So I'm trying to compare him to other people and go, hey, is this guy worth this? Hey, I ain't trying to take your money from it. Get yours, chief. Get paid as much as you can. Live your life. Do it all, man. Not hating you for it at all. Wish I could do it. I don't have that kind of skill that you have. You're a damn good baseball player. However, one of the other things that Correa always had going for him is he's a young guy. Oh, he's 21. He's 22. Well, the dude's 28. So by the time that deal's over, he's going to be 41. The Giants don't care about that because he might retire before he's 41. He might flunk out of the league before he's 41 or break his back and never play again. They're not concerned. They're looking at now and that's fine. I understand that.

But when you compare him to dudes who are getting comparable type of deals, these big money deals like this, I can tell you by looking at numbers who Trout is and tell you why he's elite offensively. And I can tell you why Bryce Harper is elite offensively. Carlos Correa is a solid offensive baseball player but is Carlos Correa an elite offensive baseball player? Because to me when you're paying $350 million you might want to get an elite baseball player

and I don't know that Carlos Correa is an elite baseball player Very good! Like when you look at his similarity score, similar batters, all right, similar batters, Major League Baseball, that's kind of like the Hall of Fame thing they do on baseball reference. He compares with Corey Seager, number one, Trevor Story, Javi Baez, Francisco Lindor, Trey Turner, Tim Anderson, Bregman, Real Muto offensively.

These are all very, very good players. I don't know that I view him as an elite offensive baseball player. Playoffs, guy goes out there and balls. Guy goes out there and gets big-time hits, clutch hits. And obviously you're paying for that too. But it's interesting that you look at these deals, and this guy's got one of the richest deals in the history of baseball, biggest deal ever for a shortstop. And I cannot definitively tell you that Carlos Correa is an elite baseball player. I can tell you he's damn good.

I can tell you his glove is great. I can tell you he's got a cannon. But $350 million is what? That's paying you to bop home runs and be a big-time producer on offense and to be healthy. That's what you're paying for. And historically, he's never proven to be an elite offensive baseball player. He's a good one.

And he's never proven to stay healthy. He's had issues. So if I were the Giants, I'd be weary of that. If I'm the Astros, I'm like, all right, I'm not paying that. There's no way I was ever going to pay $350 million, and they shouldn't have paid $350 million. They made the right choice. It ain't my money. Pay what you want to pay.

But $350 million, when you can get what you're getting out of Jeremy Pena for a fraction, a literal fraction of that, then that's the move. That's what good franchises do. That's what the Giants used to be. The Giants used to be a franchise that didn't have to go out and spend $350 million on a guy who might be elite and might just be really good. The Astros don't have to do that because they're well-run. Their deals are manageable. Altuve's got a manageable deal.

Bregman's got a manageable deal. They got dudes who are cheap, and they draft well, and their farm system's great, and guys all succeed. Now, that may not last forever, but it does now. They have very few misses, mostly hits. So when you've got an organization that does a damn good job of hitting, hitting, hitting, hitting, hitting, then you can say, all right, see you later, $350 million guy. And as you learned, that guy wasn't there when you won the World Series this year.

Jeremy Pena was, and Jeremy Pena made gigantic hits. And guys made gigantic catches that are no-name dudes. Dudes did big things. So to me, I like Correa. And if he were on your team, are you better? Maybe you're better than you are with Pena in theory. But what does that matter? You won the World Series without him. That's the ultimate goal. If you wouldn't have won the World Series and Correa's gone, you go, maybe Correa's the missing piece. He wasn't. You won.

All right, more to come.